Businessmirror December 17, 2018

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DEPT. OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY

2018 BANTOG DATA MEDIA AWARDS CHAMPION

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

www.businessmirror.com.ph

n

Monday, December 17, 2018 Vol. 14 No. 68

DOF: Analysts’ forecasts partly fueled ’18 inflation D By Rea Cu

@ReaCuBM

ON’T just blame the higher taxes or global factors like oil prices. “Faulty” forecasting that morphed into a “self-fulfilling prophecy” was one of those that fueled inflation in 2018, according to a ranking Department of Finance (DOF) official who had been the agency’s pointman in lobbying Congress to pass the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law.

Inflation this year, said Finance Undersecretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua, was also driven by expectations of a faster climb in prices resulting from faulty forecasting done by some analysts, whose projections were off the mark by as high as plus or minus 0.4

percentage points from the official rates announced by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Chua said an analysis done by the DOF’s Strategy, Economics and Results Group (SERG) on the inflation forecasts of several economists and analysts from 13 prominent

institutions from January to November this year show that the absolute deviations were as high as 0.4 percentage points, representing an estimated margin of error of around 15 percent. In statistics, forecasts with MOE above 10 percent are considered

S

@BcuaresmaBM

HORT-TERM investments made by foreign investors to the Philippines turned positive in November this year, indicating a resurgence of favorable global investor sentiment toward the country for the coming months. Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed foreign portfolio investments (FPI)—or more popularly known as “hot” or “speculative” money—reverted to the net inflow territory in November after being in the red for two consecutive months. FPI are usually an indicator of global sentiment toward the economy, as they are the type of dollar investments that are easily pulled in and out of the local platforms

OVER 50% OF FLAGSHIP PROJECTS TO BE FINISHED BY 2022–N.E.D.A. UPDATE

T

By Cai U. Ordinario

weak estimates, the DOF explained. “The 13 analysts included in the SERG study are from prominent institutions, which publicly announce their forecasts in major leading newspapers. However, some of the forecasts swung so much that some of the calculations we did yielded an MOE of between 11 and 14.9 percent,” Chua said. Continued on A2

Continued on A2

Fitch hails new BSP rules on capital buffers

I

The FPI net inflow in November 2017, marking a remarkable turnaround for the portfolio investments last month

Continued on A2

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 52.6150

@caiordinario

HE National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) disclosed that more than half of the administration’s flagship projects are now in the implementation phase and on track to being completed either by 2022 or a few years after the President steps down from office. Neda Undersecretary for Investment Programming Jonathan L. Uy recently told reporters that 44 of the 75 flagship projects are in various stages of implementation as of the end of October. Uy explained that project implementation means projects are undergoing budgeting or funding, detailed engineering and development (DED), procurement and/or construction. This, as Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and Neda Director General Ernesto M. Pernia said some of the flagship projects’ economic internal rate of return have also passed the social discount rate of 10 percent. The EIRR indicates the economic viability of a project. Some key projects he ticked off had EIRR of from 12.2 to over 21 percent. As approved in June 2017, Uy said 56 projects were under development. “As of October 2018, there were only 24, so we have graduated 32 projects beyond development and [are now] under implementation, under budgeting, funding, DED, procurement and construction. From 19 in June 2017, we now have 44 projects undergoing implementation,” Uy said.

“We did the assessment to see how well analysts are in forecasting inflation, and the results show how far off some of them were in their projections. We think that these forecasts have also driven inflation expectations that, as we know from global experience, have a tendency to become selffulfilling prophecies.”—Chua

$107.7M

in the slight change of global and local developments. November FPI yielded a net inflow of $832.07 million, as the $1.21 billion in withdrawals for the period was significantly outpaced by the $2.04-billion placements. This is the second-largest net inflow for the year—next only to March’s $1.1 billion—and a significant development from the $107.7 million seen in the same month

BUSINESS NEWS SOURCE OF THE YEAR

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Hot money posts Nov net inflow of $832M By Bianca Cuaresma

2017 EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS

THE now-passable extended northbound portion of Skyway Stage 3, from Gil Puyat (Buendia) Avenue up to near Java Street in Makati City, provides motorists an alternative exit ramp and has been seen to ease traffic congestion on the ground. When completed, the six-lane, 17.54-kilometer elevated expressway will stretch from Makati City to Balintawak, Quezon City—one of several private sector-driven initiatives that complement the government’s “Build, Build, Build” program. NONIE REYES

NTERNATIONAL credit watcher Fitch Ratings lauded the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) for the recently approved required capital buffers for local banks, but said this raised the question of how financial institutions are going to put up the new requirement. In a recent release, Fitch said the Central Bank’s new Basel III countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) rules complete the BSP’s implementation of international standards for banks in terms of capital. “The newly announced CCyB rules are a sign of progress on one of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s stated priorities—to expand its policy tool kit, as laid out by Central Bank Governor Nestor Espenilla in a speech

n JAPAN 0.4632 n UK 66.6422 n HK 6.7347 n CHINA 7.6436 n SINGAPORE 38.3743 n AUSTRALIA 37.0143 n EU 59.7917 n SAUDI ARABIA 14.0277

See “Fitch,” A2

Source: BSP (14 December 2018 )


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Businessmirror December 17, 2018 by BusinessMirror - Issuu