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Nasa’s Mars capsule will Dark horse never land on Mars Ernesto M. Hilario
Adam Minter
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BLOOMBERG VIEW
he Orion space capsule that launched on Monday has been under development by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa) since the mid-2000s. But, watching it splash down in the Pacific ocean four hours later, you’d be forgiven for thinking of the 1970s. The capsule, which by some reliable estimates cost over $10 billion, didn’t accomplish anything that wasn’t somewhat routine for Nasa in the era of the Apollo moon landings. Nasa, however, is encouraging a very different view. Rather than admit Orion’s many shortcomings, it has boldly promoted the mission as the first step in America’s journey to Mars—or, as Nasa tweets it, America’s #JourneyToMars. It’s laudable, of course, that a perpetually underfunded government agency—one that hasn’t sent a crewed mission beyond low-Earth orbit in 42 years—is able to muster this sort of long-term optimism. But optimism alone won’t send a jumbo-sized space capsule to Mars. You need money, and lots of it: a recent National Research Council study looked at several mission pathways to Mars, including Orion, and saw no possibility that any mission could be accomplished for less than hundreds of billions of dollars. In contrast, the Nasa expects to spend $22 billion on Orion and the Space Launch System rocket by 2021 (according to the Government Accountability Office, a true accounting of Orion’s costs has not been provided by Nasa). There’s no reason to believe that greater volumes of money will ever materialize. Nasa, in other words, intends on spending vast sums of money on a Mars capsule that will not be going to Mars. How did Nasa end up in this awkward and expensive situation? The Orion capsule dates to the second Bush administration’s Constellation program, designed to return Americans to the moon. In 2010 President Barack Obama canceled the program, famously justifying the act in part by saying “we’ve been there before.” He then reallocated some of the money to Nasa partnerships with civilian space companies like SpaceX for the purpose of developing new vehicles, including “space taxis.” But Congress, keen to preserve jobs associated with Constellation, resuscitated parts of it, including the Orion capsule. Political meddling in Nasa’s mission priorities is nothing new. Orion, however, is a particularly egregious example because Congress funded it despite the fact that Nasa canceled its original mission of reaching the moon, leaving the agency scrambling to find another use for it. For the moment, it’s currently scheduled for two test flights (the next is scheduled for 2018) and a controversial, by no means assured, visit to an asteroid in 2021. Orion’s trip to Mars, targeted (not scheduled) for the 2030s, is an entirely unfunded aspiration, not a realistic destination. And even if there was a mission
and date certain for a Mars mission, there’s no reason to believe that Orion could fly it. The capsule lacks the habitation module that crew members would require for a long journey to Mars, and the lander needed to set them down on its surface. Both of those projects would cost tens of billions of dollars to fund, years to build and, in all likelihood, would be canceled by a cost-conscious president or Congress before they ever made it to the launch pad. Is there a right way for Americans to chart a course to Mars? Many in the space science community would prefer that Nasa cancel its human spaceflight program altogether and shift the money to its rightfully lauded science and robotic exploration programs such as the Mars rovers and the Cassini probe that’s orbited Saturn for a decade. However, even if Congress were willing to allow such a radical maneuver (it won’t, due to the jobs that those programs provide to Congressional districts and states represented by powerful members), the United States would be making a grave mistake in abrogating its role as the world’s leading spacefaring nation to the EU, Russia, and China (which has been quickly gaining ground). The better option would be to kill Orion now, and use the money to support Nasa’s successful partnerships with civilian space companies like SpaceX. Already, Commercial Cargo and Commercial Crew—the two programs that Nasa undertook to deliver cargo and people to the International Space Station—have proven that market incentives can help create rockets and spacecraft for a fraction of the price needed to develop them in-house. Even better, from a long-term standpoint, there’s evidence that young outer space-minded engineering talent is opting for work in the private sector over Nasa. That talent would benefit from exposure to Nasa’s deep experience and expertise. Of course, there are risks in Nasa’s partnerships, as demonstrated by the explosion of an International Space Station-bound Orbital Sciences rocket last month. But space will always be dangerous, no matter who is flying—a fact that Nasa knows better than any organization on the planet. So long as there are partners willing to take the risks to go deeper into space—and Elon Musk offers one very determined example— Nasa should help them get to the launch pad.
ABOUT TOWN
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ith Vice President Jejomar C. Binay apparently intent on pursuing his presidential ambition in 2016 despite the flurry of corruption allegations against him during his stint as Makati mayor, the question of who will be his candidate for vice president is now the object of much speculation.
Among the names prominently mentioned are Sen. Grace Poe, who has been the frontrunner in vice presidential surveys. But she has already said that she has no plans of running for higher office in 2016. Sarangani Rep. Manny Pacquiao’s name has also been bandied about, but he would still be underage as VP candidate when the next election comes. Binay has said it is still too early to name his running mate but he mentioned two vice presidentiables: Party-list Rep. Lito Atienza of Buhay and Rep. Sherwin “Win” Gatchalian of Valenzuela City, both of whom he said had good track records in local governance. Gatchalian has actually been fixture in Binay’s political sorties. He is a former three-term mayor and is also actively involved in the scouting movement as national vice president for National Capital Region of the Boy Scouts of the Philippines. Gatchalian is a stalwart of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), which counts in its roster Senators Tito Sotto and Loren Legarda, both of whom have no plans of running for higher positions in 2016. This leaves Gatchalian as the NPC’s lone candidate for a national position such as vice president. Gatchalian and Binay have known each other for four years and the solon is among the allies of the VP who have defended him from corruption allegations. In fact, Gatchalian vouches for Binay’s ability to connect with ordinary Filipinos in his provincial sorties. “I can say that he [Binay] continues to
Moving forward
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Cooperation and Development (OECD)—is more useful. Documenting the 427 bribery cases that OECD member-countries have concluded since 1999, when a worldwide anti-bribery pact came into force, the report not only illuminates who’s been paying what to whom and why, but also points to what more must be done to detect, prosecute and punish bribery across borders. Some conclusions jump out: Senior management mostly knows about bribes, undermining the “rogue employee” myth. Most cases involve advanced, rather than de-
Will we ever see an end to Metro Manila’s monstrous traffic jams? Banish the thought, as the government seems unable to fast-track road-infrastructure projects under the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Program. Take the case of the parallel connector roads linking the North Luzon Expressway (Nlex) to the South Luzon Expressway (Slex) aimed at decongesting the Port of Manila and the Manila International Container Port. The Nlex-Slex Connector Road Project has two components. The first component is the Skyway Stage 3 of the Slex, won by San Miguel Corp. in partnership with Citra Metro Manila Tollways Corp. The second component, won by Metro Pacific Investment Corp.’s (MPIC) Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. (MPTC), involves the construction of a 13.4-kilometer four-lane elevated expressway via the PNR tracks, with three exits to connect Nlex with Slex. The SMC-Citra portion of the project is now under way, but the MPTC project component worth P18 billion has yet to take off the ground. While the President himself has given the go-signal for the project to proceed in January last year, nothing has moved up to now because the Chief Executive’s subalterns either keep changing the rules or are doing snail-paced work. One tangible benefit of the Connector Road Project is the
Email: ernhil@yahoo.com
Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines are already implementing a National Single Window system for faster import and export transactions, with Brunei Darussalam and Vietnam closer to implementing the same by next year. One speaker, Dr. Jayant Menon— an Asian Development Bank (ADB) lead economist—said that up to 70 percent of intra-Asean trade is now tariff-free, given more than 99 percent of tariff lines were taken down
protections would doubtless help bring more cases to light. The average time it takes to conclude a case has steadily increased, from two years in 1999 to 7.3 years in 2013. Prosecutions take time, of course, and some governments can take years to respond to requests for information. When those delays happen, requesting countries ought to be allowed to ask to stop the clock on statutes of limitations. Governments also need to stiffen penalties, especially in bribery involving public procurement. These accounted for more than 240 cases, yet the number that resulted in the
disbarment of a contractor from future bidding was laughably small: two. And a bribe-taker’s ill-gotten gains were confiscated only 13 percent of the time, reflecting not only how hard it can be to trace assets, but also the lack of laws requiring such confiscation. True, indexes and rankings help raise public awareness about corruption, inciting national pride or shame (and occasional resentment), as well as useful debate. Did President Xi Jinping’s loud crackdown on corruption, and the accompanying lurid media exposes, cause China’s 20-place drop in
the CPI, which is based on polls of expert perception? What explains the improved performance of Afghanistan? How much joy should Americans take in the two-place improvement in their CPI rank, to No. 17? Is Denmark, after three straight years atop the rankings, ready to retire the trophy for national rectitude? Fascinating questions all. Yet it’s the detailed case data about corruption that can best help governments zero in on what must be done to stop it. Sunlight may be the best disinfectant, but a good stiff scouring brush always helps on the toughest spots.
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veloping, countries. The US is the 800-pound enforcement gorilla, with more than five times the number of concluded cases than Germany, the next most active. The biggest bribe-takers tend to be employees of state-owned enterprises, accounting for 27 percent of the cases and 80 percent of the bribes. The extractive and construction industries account for nearly two-fifths of all cases. The real value of the report, though, lies in its data on detection and prosecution. To wit, whistleblowers generated only 2 percent of all cases; stronger whistle-blower
Snail-paced
unrestricted flow of cargo trucks from Manila’s port area to Northern and Southern Luzon, thus easing truck-ban concerns. It will also improve transport logistics as a result of the more efficient movement of cargoes, roll-on, roll-off vessels, and passengers in and out of the ports in Manila, and would reduce travel time from Nlex to Slex to only 15 to 20 minutes. MPIC’s Connector Road Project is among the crucial PPP ventures because it would help ease the worsening traffic in the metropolis and cut travel time between Nlex and Slex to just 20 minutes, thus speeding up the transport of goods and services between Luzon’s north and south points. The Department of Environment and Natural Resources already issued the Environmental Compliance Certificate for the project in March 2012. National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, local government units in Makati City, Manila and Caloocan, as well as the Japan International Cooperation Agency have endorsed the project. Unfortunately, however, even the Neda’s approval did not lead to the speedy implementation of the MPIC project, which, to this day, has been wracked by one delay after another. For one thing, the MPTC has been told by the government to scrap the Swiss Challenge, and use instead its existing joint-venture agreement with the Philippine National Construction Co. in implementing the project. The Department of Justice also issued an opinion in July saying that the Connector Road Project cannot be done through a JV without public bidding, and that the Neda erred in approving the joint venture. Because of these obstacles, the Nlex-Slex Connector Road Project is now delayed by more than two years, even as President Aquino apparently wanted the project completed within his term to woo voters to the side of the ruling party in 2016.
The problem may lie in Asean’s institutional setting. Given its nature and mandate, the Asean Secretariat has only recommendatory powers and cannot enforce integration in a top-down manner—unlike the European Commission. Therefore, AEC integration— like any other Asean action—will not achieve nor intended to aspire to a supranational action. Governments themselves should then demonstrate the benefits AEC integration will bring and ensure that even small businesses see the opportunities of a regional market and production base. Several of the speakers suggested that more mechanisms for private-sector consultations should be established, especially if Asean businesses—more than 90 percent of which are micro, small and medium enterprises—are to “buy-in” and claim ownership over AEC integration.
AST Friday the Angara Centre for Law and Economics convened a panel of global experts and academics to speak about the forthcoming changes and challenges of the Asean Economic Community, or AEC, integration in 2015.
There was consensus that though it was unlikely all integration targets would be met by the deadline (December 31, 2015), much was still achieved to bring the 10 memberstates’ economies closer, particularly through trade reforms. According to the World Economic Forum’s 2013 Global Enabling Report, border administration and customs procedures throughout the Asean have become more efficient as various changes were introduced in the last five years.
2012, among others. He was also honored as Outstanding Young Man for Public Service by the Jaycees in 2011. Education is Gatchalian’s main advocacy. In his nine years as Valenzuela mayor, he was able to build 2,000 classrooms. Public school students in Valenzuela also led in the National Achievement Test (NAT) during school years 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Youth, competence and integrity are Gatchalian’s assets that Binay could definitely tap in the 2016 elections.
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as early as January 2010. Such intra-regional trade may have increased only marginally from 21 percent of total trade in 1998 to 26 percent in 2013. However, Dr. Jörn Dosch of the University of Rostock emphasized this is the secondhighest percentage for any regional economic grouping in the world, next only to the European Union. In other words, even before 2015, Asean is well on its way to a more integrated regional economy. However, Menon cited lack of awareness as one of the biggest challenges to the AEC. Only 7 percent of the 500 or so businesses that answered a recent Asean Business Advisory Council survey professed they had detailed knowledge of AEC initiatives. A joint study by ADB and the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies even reported that up to 55 percent of its respondents were unaware of the AEC. Some estimate that less than one out of five Asean businesses have any plans for the 2015 deadline.
Edgardo J. Angara
New US chant: We’re No. 17!
s China much more corrupt this year than it was last year? How about Afghanistan? And, before you ask, what about Saint Vincent and the Grenadines? The answers, according to Transparency International’s 2014 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), are yes, no and no. That sense of false precision, along with the worldwide obsession with rankings and some clever marketing, surely helps make the CPI so popular. But another survey on corruption also released last week—the Foreign Bribery Report published by the Organization for Economic
enjoy the trust and confidence of the majority of ordinary Filipinos, particularly those in the lower classes which compose the bulk of voters in the country,” he said. Gatchalian had earlier said the Filipino people would be the ultimate judge on whether VP Binay deserves to be the next president of the Republic. “It would do well for VP Binay to go directly to the people to explain his side since the Senate Blue Ribbon sub-committee has already prejudged him based on how witnesses against the vice president were given the latitude to hurl their accusations, whether unfounded or not,” Gatchalian said. At age 21, Gatchalian graduated from the prestigious Boston University with a degree in Finance and Operation Management. His college degree proved useful in managing family-run companies such as Air Philippines and Waterfront Philippines which maintains a string of hotels nationwide. He ran and won as congressman of Valenzuela City’s First District in 2001. His impressive record as legislator later allowed him to win handily as city mayor. Gatchalian’s leadership has earned him much recognition. Valenzuela was named as the Best Governed Highly Urbanized City by the Department of the Interior and Local Government in 2010; Business-Friendly City by the World Bank in 2011; Most Business-Friendly Local Government Unit by the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry in
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
E-mail: angara.ed@gmail.com.