WB report: Covid scarring cuts PHL growth
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HE extent of the economic scarring caused by the pandemic has cut the country’s long-term economic growth potential to only 5.7 percent on average between 2020 and 2029, according to the World Bank. In its Philippine Economic Update titled Regaining Lost Ground, Revitalizing the Filipino Workforce, the World Bank said this is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic growth rate of over 6 percent. The World Bank now expects the country to post a growth of 5.3 percent this year; 5.9 percent in 2022; and 5.7 percent in 2023. Inflation is expected to average 3.3 percent this year; 3.9 percent next year; and 3.2 percent in 2023. “Mobility restrictions are overtime having less impact on economic activities. As a result, the economy
expanded by 4.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2021, rebounding from its 10.1 percent contraction over the same period in 2020,” Ndiame Diop, World Bank Country Director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, said in a briefing on Tuesday. “Now going forward, the new variant has added a layer of uncertainty but we clearly see the recovery trend continuing in the last quarter of this year bringing the economy to a forecast of 5.3 percent growth for 2021 accelerating to an average 5.8 percent in 2022-2023,” he also said. The lower growth potential ref lected the business closures during the pandemic. The report noted that nearly 10 percent of firms in the Philippines have closed and do not expect to reopen in shortterm while 15 percent have closed
but expect to reopen at a lower capacity. T hese business closures are leading to permanent job and income losses as well as the “erosion of valuable intangible assets.” The World Bank said these include management and technical know-how, employee competencies, and value network and relationships. The report also said firms that managed to survive “face impaired balance sheets and are deferring productive investments.” With high unemployment, disruptions in the education of children, and malnutrition, the World Bank also expressed concern that human capital and Filipino’s “future earning potential” are also being eroded. “The challenge is to limit the scarring by capitalizing on growth
opportunities such as the acceleration of digitalization, and implementing a catch-up plan to mitigate the adverse socio-economic impacts of the pandemic,” the report said.
Poverty
The jobs lost to the pandemic will lead to a higher poverty rate. The World Bank estimated this would mean a poverty rate of 22 percent in 2020 and 21.3 percent in 2021, based on the lower middle-income poverty line of $3.20 a day in 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP). The World Bank said the social assistance under Bayanihan to Heal as One Act (Bayanihan 1) was not enough to prevent more people from falling into poverty. See “Covid,” A2
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Wednesday, December 8, 2021 Vol. 17 No. 61
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2-M WOMEN REJOINED PHL LABOR FORCE BUT…
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V ER two million women rejoined the labor force in October but not all of them may have found decent jobs, according to the latest data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), which reported higher underemployment on Tuesday. According to PSA, 3.5 mill ion Fi l ipi nos were u nemployed wh i le 7.0 4 m i l l ion were underemployed in October. The country’s unemployment rate reached 7.4 percent while underemployment was at 16.1 percent. (Story here: https://businessmirror.com.
AMBASSADOR Kazuhiko Koshikawa takes a selfie with Philippine Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Leopoldo V. Laroya in front of the patrol vessel BRP Malabrigo, as he makes a courtesy call at the Coast Guard National Headquarters in Port Area, Manila, on Tuesday, December 7, 2021. During the courtesy call, Koshikawa boarded the Malabrigo for a presentation of equipment and a demonstration of its capabilities. Through Japanese ODA, the BRP Malabrigo was provided to the PCG, equipped with the latest tools and technology. Story on page A5. ROY DOMINGO By Cai U. Ordinario
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@caiordinario
HILE global recovery and the easing of mobility restrictions are giving many Filipinos some holiday cheer this time of the year, local economists said these are among the reasons that will likely make them face higher commodity prices not only this year, but at least until the first quarter of 2022. See “Prices,” A2
ph/2021/12/07/3-5-millionjobless-in-oct-as-unemployment-improves-by-7-5/) Former Labor Undersecretary Rene E. Ofreneo said with the increase in underemployment, this only means a lot of Filipinos are eager to work, including millions of women. The PSA said some 2.239 million women rejoined the labor force in October alone. “This means people, including the new labor entrants, are raring to go back to work or to get employed—except that good, See “Labor,” A2
Senate, House OK bicameral report on FIA By Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz
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@joveemarie
HE Senate and the House of Representatives on Tuesday separately ratified the bicameral committee report on the bill amending the Foreign Investment Act of 1991. The bill, which seeks to further open up the economy, is one of the priority liberalization measures of the Duterte administration. The House first ratified the bicameral report earlier in the day. Sen. Imee Marcos then read it aloud in the Senate, where it was unanimously adopted. Once ratified, the
bill will be immediately transmitted to the President for signature. Among the salient features of the bill is the creation of the InterAgency Investment Promotions Coordination Committee (IIPCC), the body that will integrate all promotion and facilitation efforts to encourage foreign investments in the country. Under the bill, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) shall act as the IIPCC lead agency. The measure said the IIPCC shall be composed of DTI, Department of Finance, Board of Investments, Philippine Economic Zone Authority, Department of Foreign Affairs,
National Economic and Development Authority, Department of Information and Communications Technology, Commission on Higher Education, Technical Education and Skills Development Authority. The measure also mandates the IIPCC to establish both a mediumand long-term foreign investment promotion and marketing plan. As part of the drive to liberalize and attract more investors, the bill reduces the number of direct hires that foreign firms are required to have, from 50 to just 15 workers. Then a minimum paid-in capital of US$100,000 shall be allowed to non-Philippine nationals.
Registered foreign enterprises employing foreign nationals and enjoying fiscal incentives are mandated to implement an understudy or skills development program to ensure the transfer of technology or skills to Filipinos. Compliance with this requirement shall be regularly monitored by the Department of Labor and Employment. The alien firms are also allowed by the measure to set up, and have 100-percent ownership, of small and medium enterprises as long as their products and services do not fall within Lists A and B of the Foreign Investment Negative List provided under this proposal.
PESO exchange rates n US 50.3700 n japan 0.4440 n UK 66.8259 n HK 6.4577 n CHINA 7.8997 n singapore 36.8013 n australia 35.5058 n EU 56.8577 n SAUDI arabia 13.4273 Source: BSP (7 December 2021)