three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012
U.N. Media Award 2008
BusinessMirror
www.businessmirror.com.ph
week ahead
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW Foreign exchange
n Previous week: The local currency followed a straight appreciating trend during the week after several weeks of rally. The trend started with a 6-centavo appreciation on Monday to hit 44.83 to a dollar from the previous week’s close at 44.89. This continued toward Tuesday and Wednesday, hitting 44.735 to a dollar and 44.68 consecutively. This continued to 44.64 to a dollar on Thursday and ended the week at 44.54 to a dollar on positive local news, like the lower inflation data for November. Friday’s close is the strongest that the peso has been in more than two months, or since September 24, when it hit 44.46 to a dollar. The total traded volume for the week is also larger at $2.86 billion, from the previous week of $2.03 billion. n Week ahead: The peso is expected to trade with an appreciation bias in the week ahead as economists and traders note that remittances are starting to come in. Markets also seek leads from the upcoming Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) meeting during the week.
Manufacturing (October 2014)
December 10, Wednesday n September manufacturing: The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that the volume of production index (VoPI) grew by 3.2 percent in September this year, losing steam from the 19-percent increase seen in the same month last year. Production volume declined across sectors, including electrical machinery, food, transport, apparel and tobacco products, among others. n October manufacturing: Moody’s Analytics said the country’s slowdown in manufacturing mirrors the “broader economy’s cooling” during the period. The research arm of the international credit watcher also said that solid export demand and continued remittances from overseas should lift production in the coming months.
n Sunday, December 7, 2014 Vol. 10 No. 59
P25.00 nationwide | 7 sections 32 pages | 7 days a week
Natl govt’s failure to spend in Q3 is ‘necessary sacrifice’
T
By Bianca Cuaresma
HE national government’s inability to disburse public funds to fund projects in the months of July to September this year—which inadvertently led to the country’s economic growth slowdown during the period—is a “necessary sacrifice” for the economy to maintain its expansion in the medium to long term, a Cabinet official said. Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told reporters in a recent interview on the sidelines of an economic forum in Makati City that, while the lower spending in the third quarter of the year may have “led to a short-term bump in the economy,” it can be good for the country in the long run. Balisacan attributed the lower fiscal spending—which was the See “Sacrifice,” A2
By Lorenz S. Marasigan
G
ULF carrier Emirates should be fined and penalized for selling international passenger tickets bound for Manila and back to Dubai under a third frequency. This was the call of the two largest Filipino carriers in the Philippines, after they discovered that their competitor has been offering a third daily flight up until October 2015. Emirates is only authorized to operate a third daily flight until December 26 this year. In separate petitions before the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB), Philippine Airlines (PAL) and Cebu Pacific (CEB) urged the regulator to investigate the malpractice and penalize Emirates for such move. The flag carrier called on the regulator to issue a cease-and-desist order that directs Emirates to immediately halt the promotion and sale of
PESO exchange rates n US 44.6480
Job gains put U.S. on pace for best growth since ’99
BALISACAN: “I do not know of any good reform that is not painless. If you want to do serious reforms, some sacrifice must be made initially.”
PAL, CEB demand fine, penalty for Gulf carrier
Policy stance
n Previous monetary-policy stance: In its October 23 monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Board decided to keep the central bank’s policy rates unchanged—at 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase facility. The central bank decided to keep all its monetary tools unchanged only for the second time this year due to its assessment of a more “manageable” inflation environment based on its latest baseline projections for the policy horizon. n Upcoming monetary-policy stance: Private economists in the country bet that the seven-man Monetary Board will pause again on its tightening measures as inflation eases in November this year. This, however, will not last long as the BSP will likely hike again coming into 2015 to take into consideration the lower inflation target for next year and the normalization of monetary policy in the US. See related story. Bianca Cuaresma
A broader look at today’s business
its third daily Dubai-Manila frequency beyond December 26. “In addition, PAL likewise prays that, after due notice and hearing, this Honorable Board impose a fine on Emirates,” the Lucio Tan-led carrier said, pointing out that the continued operation of the “third daily frequency is not justified by national interest.” Emirates used to operate a third daily flight under a code-share agreement with PAL. But the flag carrier decided to let the agreement expire, thus leaving Emirates with no recourse but to petition for an extension of the third frequency up until March 2015. The petition was turned down by the regulator, prompting Emirates to ask for a reconsideration. It is up for deliberation on December 11. Thus, so as not to disrupt the status quo, the regulator decided to temporarily extend the operations of Emirates until December 26. Both carriers were irked by this decision, with CEB reminding the
See “Emirates,” A2
By Christopher S. Rugaber | The Associated Press
W
ASHINGTON—A resurgence in US hiring accelerated in November and put 2014 on track to be the healthiest year for job growth since 1999. Jobless 10 ANNUAL 8 6% rate 6 Percent of 4 civilian labor 2 force that 0 is unemployed, ’03 by month, seasonally adjusted:
7.4 ’13
5.8%
10 10 88 66 44 22 00
November ’13
November ’14
Graphic: TNS Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The gain of a robust 321,000 jobs—the most in nearly three years—put further distance between a strengthening American economy and struggling nations throughout the developed world. The job market still isn’t yet fully healthy. But its steady improvement raises the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will start raising interest rates from record lows by mid-2015. The unemployment rate remained at a six-year low of 5.8 percent, the Labor Department said on Friday. “These were boom-like numbers,” said Mark Zandi, chief econo-
mist at Moody’s Analytics. “They indicate that the US economy is on very solid ground.” Friday’s report also raised hopes that Americans’ pay might finally be starting to increase, after barely budging since the Great Recession began seven years ago. The average hourly wage rose 9 cents to $24.66, the biggest gain in 17 months. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen has cited stagnant wages as a key reason to keep rates low. Higher wages could lead to higher prices, and the Fed might feel compelled to raise rates to limit inflation. See “Job gains,” A2
n japan 0.3729 n UK 69.9902 n HK 5.7584 n CHINA 7.2544 n singapore 34.0253 n australia 37.5320 n EU 55.2832 n SAUDI arabia 11.8973 Source: BSP (5 December 2014)