BusinessMirror December 04, 2020

Page 1

Jobless data ‘improves’ but raises new worries By Cai U. Ordinario

T Amang Geronimo, an operations manager at a silkscreen shop in Commonwealth Avenue in Quezon City, arranges with his staff their 2021 calendars. Geronimo said his business declined by 25 percent during the pandemic, but he looks forward to a slow recovery next year. NONOY LACZA

@caiordinario

HE latest unemployment data unveiled by government statisticians on Thursday showed a slight improvement but reflected risks confronting the Philippines in renewing consumer confidence, according to local economists. The preliminary Labor Force Survey (LFS) results released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed 3.8 million Filipinos

or 8.7 percent of the labor force unemployed in October 2020. With this, National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said this year, 4.5 million Filipinos were jobless —translating to an annual unemployment rate of 10.4 percent this year. “The 4.5 million is the actual count. But if we use the annual average given earlier at 10.4 percent, it means 104 [Filipinos] for every 1,000 persons in the labor force [are jobless],” PSA Assistant National Statistician Wilma Guillen told the

BusinessMirror on Thursday. Guillen said this means 104 Filipinos out of 1,000 persons in the labor force also had no income this year. “The number of people without jobs can definitely lower confidence and consumer spending. It is one of the main culprits behind low household consumption spending because joblessness can severely cut purchasing power,” University of Asia and the Pacific School of Economics Dean Cid L. Terosa told this newspaper.

Ateneo de Manila School of Social Sciences Dean Fernando T. Aldaba and Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (Acerd) Director Alvin P. Ang agreed, and said the uncertainty of the times has also affected Filipino spending this year. Ang said such uncertainty is also highlighted by the World Bank estimate t hat globa l ly, about 20 percent of the labor force cannot be accommodated in other jobs. Continued on A2

GDP ’20 CONTRACTION NOW SEEN AT 8.5-9.5%

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Friday, December 4, 2020 Vol. 16 No. 57

P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages |

DOF hails PHL’s 3rd Global Bonds offer results

By Tyrone Jasper . Piad

T

@Tyronepiad

HE Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) expects the economy to sink deeper by 8.5 percent to 9.5 percent this year amid protracted lockdown measures due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

This latest gross domestic product (GDP) projection is worse than its earlier forecast of 5.5-percent contraction. “Despite a lower projection than what was initially adopted back in July 2020, further relaxation of restrictions, as we have improved our healt-hcare system capacity, will keep our economy on the right track toward full recovery,” the DBCC said in a joint statement. Considering this, the economic managers are anticipating the GDP growth to be at 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent in 2021 and 8 percent to 10 percent in 2022. “We have revised macroeconomic assumptions and targets to take into account recent positive developments that will help propel the Philippine economy to a strong recovery starting 2021,” DBCC said. “These developments include our gradual recovery, the betterthan-expected performance of the main revenue collection agencies, improvements in the employment situation compared to the peak of community quarantine restrictions, and the likely passage of key economic recovery bills,” it added. The DBCC is also expecting “further improvement” in the GDP numbers for the fourth quarter. “As we carefully and proactively manage the risks, a strong economic recovery and solid growth remains within our reach,” it added. As of end-September, the Philippine GDP slid by 10 percent on average after registering contraction in three consecutive quarters.

T

Passersby take photos of creches, which showcase Tarlac's greatest attraction during the holiday season or the “Belenismo sa Tarlac” that is now on its 13th year. This special creche is in San Clemente, Tarlac. ROY DOMINGO

HE Philippines has returned to the international bond market for the third time this year with a $2.75-billion dual tranche 10.5-year and 25-year Global Bonds to boost the country’s budget support. In a statement, the Department of Finance (DOF) said the new 10.5year global bonds were priced at US Treasury spreads of T+ 70 basis points (bps) and a coupon of 1.648 percent. This was after an initial pricing guidance of T+ 100 bps area, while the 25-year tranche was priced at 2.65 percent, which is 35 bps tighter than initial pricing guidance of 3 percent area. “The success of our third offering this year in the international capital markets underpins the international investor community’s recognition of the Philippine See “DOF,” A2

TEPID LENDING MOOD BLUNTS BSP TOOLS’ EDGE By Bianca Cuaresma

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@BcuaresmaBM

ENDERS’ reluctance to lend and borrowers’ unwillingness to borrow is dampening the effectiveness of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) massive monetary policy easing, thereby weakening its ability to prop up growth in the midst of a global health and economic crisis. In a press briefing on Thursday, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said recent data shows that their massive drive to cut rates is still not pushing banks and lenders to increase their lending and borrowing activity. “Weak market confidence

continues to dampen the transmission from accommodative financing conditions to credit activity and private spending,” Diokno said. “Even as monetary policy actions typically work with a lag, the latest data on domestic liquidity and bank lending indicate that credit activity has remained tepid as banks remain genera lly cautious, while households and businesses remain reluctant to borrow,” he added. Theoretically, central banks use interest rate cuts to boost the economy as the lower interest rates translate to the market as lower financing costs, thereby creating an encouraging

environment for borrowing and investment. BSP has aggressively cut its interest rates for the year to support the economy. In total, the Central Bank has already cut its rates by 200 basis points—25 basis points in February, 50 basis points in March, another 50 basis points in an off-schedule Monetary Board meeting in April, another 50-basis-point cut in June and the latest 25-basis-point cut just last month.

No pickup

However, latest data on bank lending and domestic liquidity shows no pick up in activity. Continued on A2

See “GDP,” A2

PESO exchange rates n US 48.0440

n japan 0.4602 n UK 64.2204 n HK 6.1980 n CHINA 7.3202 n singapore 35.9261 n australia 35.6246 n EU 58.2149 n SAUDI arabia 12.8093

Source: BSP (December 3, 2020)


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