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LOCKDOWNS PUSH DBCC TO CUT GROWTH TARGET www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Thursday, August 19, 2021 Vol. 16 No. 309
P. | | 7 DAYS A WEEK
AN increasing number of hospitals in Metro Manila, such as Santa Ana Hospital and Pasay City General Hospital, are reaching full capacity due to a surge in Covid-19 infections, driven by the highly contagious Delta variant. The Department of Health on Wednesday logged 11,085 additional Covid-19 cases, bringing the total number of infections in the country to 1,776,495. NONIE REYES/ROY DOMINGO
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@BNicolasBM
HE government’s economic team decided to forgo its 6- to 7-percent growth target for the Philippine economy this year following the reimposition of lockdowns to curb the spread of the more contagious Covid-19 Delta variant.
The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) announced on Wednesday that it has cut its GDP growth target this year to 4 to 5 percent. If not for the recent surge in Covid-19 cases, the economic team said their original growth target could have been attainable. “Without the present spike, the original growth target of 6.0 to 7.0 percent would have been achiev-
able. However, with the global emergence of the Delta variant, the second-half growth outlook was revised downwards to reflect the additional restrictions imposed by the government, which are necessary to curb its spread,” it said in a statement. Meanwhile, the DBCC retained its growth targets for 2022 at 7 to 9 C A
‘Mandanas ruling makes 2022 local polls crucial’ B C U. O @caiordinario
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OCAL elections may be more important next year given that the Mandanas ruling will take effect starting 2022, according to a former Dean of the Ateneo School of Government (ASOG). In an Eagle Watch briefing on Wednesday, former ASOG Dean Antonio La Viña said the Mandanas ruling is expected to increase the budgets of national governments by 20 percent to as much as 50 percent. La Viña said this is one of the “critical issues” in the coming Presidential polls. Other issues include exiting from the pandemic, social inequality, education challenges,
China, and Islamic extremism, among others. “A very big elephant in the room in terms of issues is the Mandanas Ruling,” La Viña said. “This is a game changer, I think, regardless of how this plays out, eventually local governments are going to be more important, they can have more money, the national government will have less money. Let’s see how that turns out.” La Viña said he agreed with the Supreme Court in siding with former Governor Hermilando Mandanas. He said Governor Mandanas was correct in interpreting that “the 1991 LGC clearly decided that all taxes need to be 60-40 [percent].”
RETURN TO ’19 GROWTH LEVEL TO TAKE UNTIL END-2023, SAYS ACERD B C U. O @caiordinario
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HE Philippine economy may not recover its prepandemic or 2019 level of growth until the end of 2023, according to the latest estimates of the Ateneo Center for Research and Development (ACERD). In its Eagle Watch briefing on Wednesday, ACERD Director and former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cielito F. Habito said his medium scenario will allow the economy to go back to its 2019 growth path by the end of 2023. The optimistic scenario, Habito said, would lead the economy to a recovery as early as the end of next year. The pessimistic scenario would mean growth will recover much later, “well into 2025.” “I’m looking at the middle scenario because it has about the same slope as the quarter on quarter growth we were seeing from 2018 roundabout the fourth quarter of 2019,” Habito said. “If that is the normal pace of growth that our economy has, then we can expect the restoration of the levels we had in 2019, only at the end of 2023,” he explained. Habito said a recovery in 2022 “is somewhat optimistic” given the current situation. He said while the economy grew 11.8 percent in the second quarter of 2021, this is only due to base effects. In truth, what the economy went through was a double-dip recovery given the country’s seasonally adjusted GDP growth which contracted 1.3 percent. In other countries, Habito
said, the quarter on quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth is seen as the better measurement of a country’s economic output because seasonality is taken out of the picture, removing any impact caused by base effects. “[We have to] remember that it took us six years to recover from the recession of the early 1980s and that was just a recession due to capital flight, it was a supply side recession. This is a recession on both the demand and supply sides. So in a sense, you can argue, it is more severe,” Habito explained. ACERD expects inflation to be around 4 to 5 percent on the back of supply and demand side pressures. This already takes into consideration the “pork pandemic” or the African swine fever. Habito said the employment rate in the country would likely average 92 to 93 percent while the unemployment rate would hover around 7 to 8 percent given that the “recovery remained constrained.” GDP growth, Habito said, would be modest at around 3 to 4 percent given the recent quarter on quarter performance of the economy. This outlook, he said, was realistic particularly for the third quarter this year. “I consider it a realistic projection that essentially factors in how we have handled the pandemic so far. But it could get worse if the ECQ is further extended or keeps coming back,” Habito said.
DOF: Despite system woes, PhilHealth cash flow viable B B D. N @BNicolasBM
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ESPITE admitting that the Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PhilHealth) is “struggling” with its systems to pay its current debts, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said the state health insurer still has a “very viable” cash flow. Dominguez told finance reporters that PhilHealth has a reserve fund of P164.1 billion as of June this year. Citing tentative figures, the finance chief said PhilHealth’s deficit as of June this year also stood at P25.5 billion, which is covered by P44.6 billion in subsidies given by the national government for the first half of the year. “Well, PhilHealth has about a P160 billion in reserve funds. That’s my recollection and of course they are, at the moment, struggling with their own systems to pay off
their current debts. So PhilHealth is amply covered by the subsidy provided by the national government,” said Dominguez, who is an ex-officio member of PhilHealth’s Board of Directors. While the finance chief expressed confidence that the state health insurer “will not disappear” and can sustain massive spending for “several years,” he said there might be some changes in terms of its coverage. “PhilHealth is still very viable on the cash flow basis but again let us point out that PhilHealth has in fact incurred a drop in contributions because of the problems with the Covid and there’s also experienced increase in expenditures, but so far I believe they can handle the situation,” he added. The Insurance Commission (IC) has also come out with a prelimiS “DOF,” A
Human cost
BEYOND the economic costs of the crisis, Habito said, are the S “R,” A
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PESO EXCHANGE RATES ■ US 50.5580
■ JAPAN 0.4614 ■ UK 69.4819 ■ HK 6.4886 ■ CHINA 7.7952 ■ SINGAPORE 37.1259 ■ AUSTRALIA 36.6798 ■ EU 59.2186 ■ SAUDI ARABIA 13.4807
Source: BSP (August 18, 2021)