‘PHL current account may revert to deficit’ I
NTERNATIONAL think tank Fitch Solutions warned that the Philippines cou ld face challenges managing its current account deficit over the longer term, as domestic goods demand recovers from the pandemic shock. In a research analysis published on Thursday, the research arm of the Fitch Group said the country’s current account could revert to a deficit status as early as next year after posting a surplus of 3.6 percent of the country’s output in 2020. The research group forecasts a smaller current account surplus for this year, at 1.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). “With the economy still ham-
pered by outbreaks of Covid-19 and resultant on-and-off re-tightening of domestic restrictions, we expect the rebound in import demand to be moderate and the Philippines to post another current account surplus in 2021,” Fitch Solutions said. “However, a s t he economy gradually climbs back to prepandemic output levels in 2022, we anticipate the current account to slip back into deficit,” it added. “Over the coming years we forecast this deficit to widen as demand for goods imports rebound, driven in particular for a rising need for commodity imports as the country’s infrastructure needs grow,” Fitch Solutions further said.
The expected deficit could be partially tempered, according to the think tank, by remittance f lows and services exports. However, the extent to which the services exports can thrive will depend on improved infrastructure and the effectiveness of reforms. “Without attracting foreign direct investment [FDI], funding such plans may tip the Philippines’s towards more volatile ‘hot money’ inflows, which would make the running of current account deficits less stable over the long term,” Fitch Solutions said. The country’s gross international reserves (GIR) and net external creditor position is also expected to limit risks from running a current account deficit through
the medium term. Earlier this week, the research firm slashed its growth forecast of the Philippines for the year amid the country’s struggle with new Covid-19 outbreaks. The research arm of the Fitch group said it now projects the country to grow by 4.2 percent for the year, down from their earlier projection of 5.3 percent, citing the continued disruptions to output from rising Covid-19 cases. The new projection came amid the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) announcement that the country’s gross domestic product in the second quarter of the year hit 11.8 percent, effectively ending the recession in the country. Bianca Cuaresma
(2017, 2018, 2019)
TO BOOST RECOVERY, BSP KEEPS RATES LOW
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n Friday, August 13, 2021 Vol. 16 No. 303
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 22 pages |
Tricycle drivers wait inside their vehicles for their turn to get inoculated against Covid-19 at a drive-through “Vaccine Express” site, a vaccination effort by the Office of the Vice President and the Quezon City local government, at the Robinsons Mall parking area in Novaliches, Quezon City, on Thursday, August 12, 2021. The event aims to vaccinate 5,000 members of the public transport sector. NONOY LACZA
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By Bianca Cuaresma
@BcuaresmaBM
HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided to keep its monetary policy at record-lows on Thursday despite its forecast that inflation will shoot above its target range for this year. The Monetary Board decided to maintain the interest rate on the BSP’s overnight reverse repurchase facility at 2 percent. The interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were likewise kept at 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. This is the fifth consecutive meeting where the BSP chose to retain its low and accommodative interest rate stance in an effort to support the economy amid the disruptions stemming from the global health crisis. “The Monetary Board is of the
view that the expected path of inflation and downside risks to domestic economic growth warrant keeping monetary policy settings unchanged. The Monetary Board remains keen on sustaining monetary policy support for as long as necessary in order for the momentum of economic recovery to gain more traction as well as to help boost domestic demand and market confidence, especially as risk aversion continues to temper credit activity,” BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said. See “to boost,” A2
PESO exchange rates n US 50.4110
Solons prod govt DIGITAL ECOSYSTEM IN REGION SEES $23-B on vax passports REVENUE OPTIONS L T By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad @TyronePiad
HE digital ecosystem in Southeast Asia is seen to generate revenue opportunities amounting to $23 billion by 2025, a report by professional services firm Ernst & Young Global Ltd. (EY) showed. EY Asean Regional Managing Partner Liew Nam Soon said that the growth of start-ups and digital natives offering interconnected
services—including ride-hailing, food delivery, grocery, logistics and financial services—will support the regional bloc’s digital ecosystem. “Consumer-focused digital ecosystems are forming across Southeast Asia to deliver value at unprecedented speed and scale, in response to industry digital disruptions and accelerated by the pandemic,” he explained. See “Digital,” A2
AWMAKERS on Thursday moved to speed up issuance by the Philippine government of internationally accepted Covid-19 vaccine certificates or passports to help migrant workers facing discrimination in certain countries. A member of the House Committee on Labor and Employment on Thursday urged the national government to fast-track the issuance of World Health Organization-recognized international certificate or card to fully vaccinated overseas Filipino workers (OFWs). Among the host governments that are reportedly shunning Phil-
ippine vaccine certificates—for lack of a unified, fraud-proof format—are Thailand and Hong Kong, where over 200,000 OFWs are based. ACT-CIS Rep. Rowena Taduran said the Philippine government, through the Consulate in Hong Kong, should discuss thoroughly with the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region the issue concerning the vaccination card of OFWs. While they are waiting, Taduran said the government should offer help in sustaining the daily needs of the OFWs especially those who came from the provinces.
n japan 0.4566 n UK 69.9251 n HK 6.4806 n CHINA 7.7807 n singapore 37.1735 n australia 37.1680 n EU 59.1976 n SAUDI arabia 13.4422
See “Solons,” A2
Source: BSP (August 12, 2021)