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DOF: ’22 JOBLESS RATE TO REMAIN ‘ELEVATED’ www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Thursday, August 12, 2021 Vol. 16 No. 302
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SOCIAL workers take photos of recipients of emergency cash subsidy from the government through its Social Amelioration Program, at the Jose Abad Santos High School in Manila. Local government units in Metro Manila started distributing cash assistance to low-income families affected by the pandemic, even as the government enforced new restrictions to stem a surge in Covid-19 infections. NONIE REYES B B D. N @BNicolasBM
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HE country’s unemployment rate may remain “elevated” next year at between 6.7 and 7.6 percent, the Department of Finance (DOF) said on Wednesday.
DTI SEES ECONOMY BACK TO PREPANDEMIC LEVELS BY NEXT YEAR B T J C. P @Tyronepiad
In an economic bulletin, the DOF said the economic team still sees unemployment rate and poverty incidence as a “major challenge” next year despite their generally positive outlook that the country’s real GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels by then. Economic managers have estimated that real GDP next year to grow between 7 and 9 percent on the back of the expected resurgence of domestic economic activity. “In a base case scenario, the un-
employment rate can still be within the range of 6.7 to 7.6 percent in 2022,” it said. This is lower compared to the preliminary annual unemployment rate in 2020 recorded at 10.3 percent, accounting for 4.5 million unemployed Filipinos in the labor force. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the unemployment rate recorded in 2020 is the highest so far since April 2005. In 2019, the unemployment rate C A
2 LNG projects expected to be done in Q2, Q3 ’22 B L L @llectura
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WO LNG (liquefied natural gas) projects are expected to be finished in the second and third quarters of 2022, just in time when the Malampaya gas facility starts to run dry. The Interim Floating Storage and Regasification unit (FSRU) Terminal project of FGEN LNG Corp. and partner Tokyo Gas will be finished by end-September next year while the FSRU and Onshore Regasification Terminal project of Atlantic Gulf & Pacific Company of Manila Inc. (AG&P) and partner Osaka Gas will be completed in the second quarter of 2022. “We see that the output of Malampaya will be declining for
FUENTEBELLA: “We are coming up with more policies so that we can ensure that they have more supply.”
2022, 2023 and 2024. Hence, we are moving forward with the LNG facilities. We have FGen facility
PESO EXCHANGE RATES ■ US 50.3940
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FTER the Philippine economy exited recession, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is anticipating a return to prepandemic growth levels by next year. Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said in a virtual event on Wednesday that the 11.8-percent economic growth in the second quarter—the first uptick in over a year—will provide the country momentum for the rest of 2021. “Prospects for 2021 are encouraging and will allow us to recover to prepandemic levels in 2022. This will prevent long-term scarring and productivity losses,” he said. Lopez is banking on the information technology-business process management (ITBPM) and export industries in driving the economy towards recovery. The IT-BPM industry has been “instrumental” in providing employment and boosting productivity, Lopez said, noting that it eyes to grow by at least 5 percent this year. The sector has adjusted its business model to adapt in pandemic, implementing workfrom-home arrangements amid mobility restrictions. Last year, the employment in the IT-BPM industry grew by 1.8 percent to 1.32 million while revenues rose by 1.4 percent to $26.7 billion. Exports, meanwhile, are seen to continue to be driven
by the electronics sector as this accounts for bulk of the outbound shipments. Lopez said the industry is allowed to operate amid the lockdown measure, which can help production. Addressing the unemployment, Lopez said that the partnership between the National Employment Recovery Strategy Task Force and the Employers’ Confederation of the Philippines aims to generate 1 million jobs this year amid the pandemic. The project seeks to employ Filipinos in several sectors, including construction, manufacturing, tourism, hospitality and export sectors. The DTI chief said the economic recovery will also be supported by the vaccination program, in addition to safe reopening of the economy “at the appropriate time.” “This ECQ [enhanced community quarantine], the concern with Delta is a serious one, but definitely will be a temporary one because [with] the preventive ECQ, we hope we will never see...[a] big surge [like in] other countries,” Lopez said. Metro Manila is under ECQ from August 6 to 20.
Fitch think tank cuts PHL growth forecast in 2021 B B C @BcuaresmaBM
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NTERNATIONAL think tank Fitch Solutions has slashed its growth forecast of the Philippines for the year amid the country’s struggle with new Covid-19 outbreaks. The research arm of the Fitch group said it now projects the country to grow by 4.2 percent for the year, down from its earlier projection of 5.3 percent, citing the continued disruptions to output from rising Covid-19 cases. The new projection came amid the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) announcement that the country’s gross domestic product in the second quarter of the year hit 11.8 percent, effectively ending the recession in the country. “The economy will face continued disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic given its slow pace of
vaccinations and difficulties containing outbreaks. With only 9.9 percent of the population fully vaccinated as of August 5, the country remains a long way off from reaching herd immunity such that it can ease preventative measures more significantly,” the think tank said. Fitch Solutions also said the locking down of Metro Manila in August and the heightened threat from the more infectious Delta variant has led it to lower its expectations for domestic activity through the remaining months of the year. “We have lowered our forecast for household consumption growth to come in at 3.5 percent in 2021 from 4 percent previously, following a contraction of 7.9 percent in 2020, given subdued retail activity. Retail activity was already weak before the impact from the S “F,” A
Spending, jabs—Finex
WHILE the second quarter saw some growth, Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines (Finex) noted that the figures remained below the prepandemic levels. “Getting close to the official C A
S “ LNG,” A
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Source: BSP (August 11, 2021)