No need to rush rate hikes, says think tank
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HE Philippines is expected to recover below the government’s target range for the year as demand has not yet fully recovered in the country, the recent assessment of the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) showed. In the release of their annual flagship report, the Asean+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) on Tuesday, AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor also said they do not see an urgent need for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to raise interest rates, but have the space to do so. The AMRO chief economist said they expect the country to grow 6.5 percent in 2022, recovering from the 5.7-percent gross
domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021. This is, however, a tad short of the government’s 7 to 9 percent target range. “This year we expect growth to improve to 6.5 percent. This will be led by government spending and also recovering private sector spending,” the AMRO economist said. “The Philippine economy has a pretty large output gap. So we expect that private spending will bounce back very rapidly once the economy is open much more fully. So we are quite confident that you know this six and a half percent growth can be achieved this year,” he added. AMRO also forecasts a growth of 6.5 percent for 2023.
Rate hike not urgent
The regional think tank also said inflation is expected to remain relatively high throughout the year, but since they are driven largely by supply side factors, there is no need to urgently raise interest rates by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). “Inflation has ticked up above the upper band of the target band. So, we expect inflation to remain above the target band for most of the year. This inflation is driven mostly by increases in fuel prices and food. So they are basically supply-driven supply shocks,” the AMRO economist said. “As I mentioned earlier, the Philippine economy still has a negative output gap. They have not fully recovered to prepandemic levels. So
demand is still low. I wouldn’t say it’s very weak, but it’s still modest,” he added. Inflation registered 4 percent in March this year, hitting the ceiling of the government’s target band for the year at 2 to 4 percent. In their March 24 monetary policy meeting, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said they see inflation averaging at 4.3 percent for this year. Despite this, AMRO does not see the urgent need to raise interest rates, which are currently on record lows as the monetary policy support for the economy at the height of the pandemic is still in place. “I think, you know, if inflation is likely to decline down to within See “Hikes,” A2
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022 Vol. 17 No. 187
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PHL FDI DIPS 16% IN JAN ON NEW COVID JITTERS By Bianca Cuaresma
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@BcuaresmaBM
ONG-TERM investments made by foreign investors to the Philippines started the year in decline due to investor concerns on the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the country. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported that foreign direct investments (FDI) to the country hit a net inflow of $819 million in January, declining by 16 percent from the $975 million net inflows posted in the same month last year. FDI are investments made by foreign players to the Philippines in hopes of long-term return. Since these are in the country for a longer term compared to their short-term counterpart, the foreign portfolio investments (FPI), FDI usually create jobs for Filipinos and have a multiplier effect on the economy. In a statement, the BSP attributed the decline in FDI net inflows to the 68.2-percent contraction in equity capital placements to $118 million from $370 million in the same month last year. “This may be due largely to investor concerns following the resurgence of cases of the highly transmissible Omicron Covid-19 variant in the country and the reimposition of stricter quarantine measures in early January 2022,” the BSP said. Broken down, equity capital placements originated mostly from Japan, the United States, the Netherlands, and Malaysia. See “FDI,” A2
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OSCAR MUYCO, 58, of Barrio Obrero, Tondo, Manila, arranges paintings for sale at Plaza Rajah Sulayman near the Our Lady of Remedies Parish, also known as Malate Church, in Malate, Manila. He hopes that, with the easing of travel restrictions, Holy Week will bring in more business for street vendors like him. He pins his hopes on the crowd at the Visita Iglesia, where the faithful visit several churches—traditionally seven—to pray before the Blessed Sacrament in each church. BERNARD TESTA
PHL raises ₧29.1B via offer of green Samurai bonds By Bernadette D. Nicolas
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UNESCAP: PHL TO GROW PAST 6% IN ’22, ’23 AS RECOVERY GAINS By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario
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HE Philippine economy is projected to grow above 6 percent as the regional and global economies continue
t o r e c o v er, according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (Unescap). Based on the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific for 2022, the Philippines is
projected to post a growth of 6.3 percent this year and 6.7 percent next year. Unescap also projects inflation in the country to average 3.3 percent this year and 3 percent next year. It can be noted that
inflation averaged 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022. “Continued recovery will be seen in 2022, with a weaker-thanexpected first quarter due to the
@BNicolasBM
HE Philippine government raised ¥70.1 billion (around P29.1 billion or $550 million) through its issuance of fourtranche green Samurai bonds. The government successfully priced its green Samurai bond issuance of 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, and 20 -year tenors. This marks the second time that the government tapped the offshore bond market this year and issued green bonds. Last month, the government borrowed a total of $2.25 billion (around P118 billion) by issuing triple-tranche dollar-denominated global bonds, including its maiden green bonds. So far this year, the government raised a total of $1.55 billion for its green bond issuances so far to the offshore debt market. For this year, the government has set a P2.2-trillion borrowing program, of which $7 billion (around P366.8 billion) is eyed to be raised through foreign commercial borrowings through sovereign bonds. With the recent issuances of dollar bonds and Samurai bonds,
See “Unescap,” A2 See “Bonds,” A2
PESO exchange rates n US 51.9140 n japan 0.4140 n UK 67.6595 n HK 6.6233 n CHINA 8.1504 n singapore 38.0378 n australia 38.5046 n EU 56.5240 n SAUDI arabia 13.8438 Source: BSP (12 April 2022)