Businessmirror april 12, 2015

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three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012

U.N. Media Award 2008

BusinessMirror

www.businessmirror.com.ph

A broader look at today’s business

n Sunday, April 12, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 185

P25.00 nationwide | 7 sections 32 pages | 7 days a week

BSP, financial market ‘keenly watchful’ of Fed rate move

week ahead

ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW Foreign exchange

n Previous week: The local currency traded sideways during the week. The peso opened trading at 44.39 to a dollar on Monday following the trading hiatus during the Holy Week. The peso then slightly depreciated to 44.48 to a dollar on Tuesday to slightly recover to 44.465 to a dollar on Wednesday. Trading was suspended on Thursday for the commemoration of the country’s Day of Valor. The peso then corrected on Friday to end the week at 44.55 to a dollar. The average trade value of the peso during the week is at 44.47 to a dollar, stronger than the previous week’s 44.69 to a dollar. n Week ahead: Foreignexchange market players will likely look for fresher leads from the data coming from advanced economies, particularly in the US, after the Federal Reserve made public its minutes of meeting just this week (see related story). The peso is still bound to trade in the middle band of the 44 territory this week.

Manufacturing data

(February 2015) April 13, Monday n January manufacturing data: The volume of production index in the first month of this year grew by 3.3 percent, slightly lower than the 4.4 percent seen in the same month last year. The increase, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority, was attributed to the performance of 14 major sectors—including printing, leather products, basic metals, beverages, textiles, tobacco products, transport equipment, nonmetallic mineral products, wood and wood products, paper and paper products and machinery. n February manufacturing data: The country’s manufacturing is expected to improve in February this year due to the higher domestic demand, particularly in food production. Bianca Cuaresma

T

By Bianca Cuaresma

Russia nervously eyes the

HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the rest of the local financial market are expected to be up on their toes in looking for clues on the actual timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) expected interest-rate normalization, after the Fed released the details of its latest meeting this week. In an e-mail response to the BusinessMirror, Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said the recent minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cause the BSP and the market players to search for new leads as to when the Fed’s interest-rate hike will start. This, as the FOMC minutes of meeting, published earlier this week, bared the Fed policy-makers’ divergence of opinion on the timing of its first rate hike. In particular, the more detailed view of the agenda in the latest meeting of the Fed showed that,

while “several” participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization in June, “others” see that it would be appropriate to begin raising rates until later this year, and even “a couple of participants” suggested that the increase be done in 2016. As such, the BSP is expected to stay pat with its “no change” policy stance in its next meetings, as it adapts a wait-and-see stance on data coming from the US. Market players are expected to do the same and, barring other big developments, the See “Fed Rate Move,” A2

Exports expected to look up by Q2 T

HE country’s export weakness is expected to end in the second quarter of the year, an international banking giant said in its recent country assessment. In a research note, JPMorgan said it expects the country’s exports to show some “positive payback” in the months of April to June this year—which would make up for the lower-than-expected export growth in recent months. In particular, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) recently reported that the country’s exports declined for a third straight month in February this year by about 3.1 percent. This was due to the decline in six major commodities, out of the top 10 commodities for the month—woodcraft and furniture; other mineral products; metal components; electronic equipment and parts; other manufactures; and machinery and transport equipment. The slowdown was blamed on

PESO exchange rates n US 44.5590

U.S.-Iran deal

the overall decline in the demand for exports in the region. “The majority of the major economies in East and Southeast Asia registered negative export performance in February 2015, with only PR [People’s Republic of] China in the positive territory. This partly mirrors the still-fragile global economy, which is particularly reflected in the country’s weak turnout of merchandise exports on the back of lower demand from the country’s major trade partners—Japan and China,” Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said. Balisacan’s explanation was backed up by JPMorgan, saying that the underlying trend of exports in the region weakened across the board. The anticipated pickup in exports in the second quarter of the year will likely be brought by the high demand for electronics during the period. Bianca Cuaresma

R

ussia has no interest in seeing a nuclear-armed Iran in the neighborhood, but the mere threat of an unshackled Iranian nuclear program and a hostile relationship between Washington and Tehran provided just the level of distraction Moscow needed to keep the US from committing serious attention to Russia’s former Soviet sphere. GlobalEye»C1

Dollar snaps 3-week loss amid US economy gain Jobless 10 ANNUAL 8 5.5% rate 6 Percent of 4 civilian labor 2 force that 0 is unemployed, ’04 by month, seasonally adjusted:

6.2% ’14

5.5%

10 10 88 66 44 22 00

March ’14

March ’15

Graphic: TNS Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

T

he US currency snapped a three-week loss on speculation the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is inching closer to raising interest rates as the economy improves. A gauge of the greenback surged after jobless claims dropped to an almost 15-year low, boosting confidence that the Fed will increase borrowing costs this year for the first time since 2006. “We remain pretty optimistic on the dollar,” Georgette Boele, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV, said by phone from Amsterdam on Friday. “The strength of the economy is still there. I think people had a bit of doubt because of the weaker numbers recently, and now they’ve started to change their views.” The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index,

which tracks the US currency against 10 major peers, rose 1.8 percent this week to 1,204.23 in New York. The greenback rallied 3.3 percent to $1.0604 per euro, near a 12-year high, and added 1.1 percent to ¥120.22. The US currency has gained 7 percent this year, the best performer after the Swiss franc, among a basket of 10 developed-nation currencies, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. Net bullish bets for the dollar to strengthen against the euro by hedge funds and money managers remained at almost a record, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Futures positions betting on a stronger greenback versus the shared currency See “Dollar,” A2

n japan 0.3696 n UK 65.5775 n HK 5.7499 n CHINA 7.1800 n singapore 32.7881 n australia 34.3157 n EU 47.5133 n SAUDI arabia 11.8799 Source: BSP (10 April 2015)


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