BusinessMirror April 07, 2021

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IMF hikes PHL growth forecast to 6.9% this year By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM

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HE International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted a strong recovery for the Philippines for this year and sustained growth through 2022. In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the global monetary authority said the Philippines is likely to grow by 6.9 percent for this year, up from the contraction of 9.5 percent in 2020. The new forecast is an upward revision from the 6.6-percent IMF forecast for the Philippines’s 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) growth. For next year, the IMF kept its 6.5-percent projection for the country’s growth.

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B a sed on t he l atest W EO projections, the IMF sees the Philippines leading the growth among the five major economies in Southeast Asia (Asean-5). Fol low ing the Phi lippines’ 6.9-percent projection is Vietnam and Malaysia, which are both projected to grow at 6.5 percent this year. This is followed by the IMF’s expected growth for Indonesia at 4.3 -percent growth and then Thailand’s 2.6-percent growth. The improved forecast for the Philippine economy parallels IMF’s better view of the world economy. The IMF adjusted its global growth projection to 6 percent, up from the 5.5-percent forecast in January due mainly to significant improvements in the two largest economies of the world—US and

China—along with prospects of a continued vaccination roll out. For consumer prices, IMF forecasts a 3.6-percent growth in 2021 before receding to 3 percent in 2022. The government’s target range for inflation is 2 to 4 percent. Earlier, the BSP adjusted its own inflation projection to 4.2 percent on supply-side shocks. For the country’s unemployment rate, the IMF forecasts 7.4 percent—a significant improvement to the 10.4-percent actual unemployment rate in 2020. The IMF expects this to continue improving until 2022 with a forecast of 6.3 percent unemployment. Earlier, Fitch Solutions slashed its 2021 Philippine growth forecast from 7.6 percent down to 5.8 percent, with risks “very much tilted

to the downside.” “We expect the lockdown measures to be extended given the continued surge in cases and the prolonged impact on hospital capacity,” Fitch Solutions said. “The likelihood of further outbreaks in other regions remains high and given the slow vaccination rollout in the country as less than 1 percent of the population has been vaccinated as of endMarch, we believe the Philippines’ recovery will continue to be hampered by the pandemic,” it added. Moody’s Analytics—the research arm of Moody’s Group— also earlier said the Philippines “stands out as the laggard” in the region as it faces a surge of new infections and fresh lockdown measures.

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DOMINGUEZ SEES ’21 GROWTH NIPPED BY LOCKDOWN EFFECTS By Bernadette D. Nicolas @BNicolasBM

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NOT ENOUGH ROOMS A patient of the Amang Rodriguez Memorial

Medical Center in Marikina City passes in front of the hospital lobby turned into an emergency room. The Philippine College of Physicians is now calling for the conversion of hotels into isolation units for patients as rising cases of Covid-19 continue to overwhelm hospitals in Metro Manila. NONOY LACZA By Cai U. Ordinario

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@caiordinario

HE value of P100 continued to shrink in the first quarter, with the poorest households shelling out more for basic goods and services, the March inflation data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Tuesday indicated. Continued on A2

PESO exchange rates

March inflation dip affirms current policy stance–BSP

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HE slight dip in the countr y’s inf lation numbers in March af f ir med the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas continued accommodative stance to support the ailing economy, the BSP governor said on Tuesday. In his statement after the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced the 4.5-percent March inflation, BSP Governor

Benjamin Diokno said the latest outturn is consistent with their initial expectations. “ The Monetar y Board is of the view that prevailing monetar y polic y settings remain appropriate to support the gover nment’s broader effor ts to facilitate the recover y of the economy,” Diokno said.

INANCE Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said he expects the country’s economic growth this year to be lower than expected as the government had to reimpose lockdowns in Metro Manila and surrounding areas due to the recent surge in Covid-19 infections. Dominguez said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday that the lockdown would dent the Philippines’s GDP growth by “one-half of 1 percent.” “Well, I think it’s going to be lower than what we expected. This surge in the contagion which is incidentally happening in Brazil, Canada, France, and Turkey and other places, is certainly not good for the economy,” Dominguez said. “However, we just want to emphasize that our death rate is much, much lower than other Western countries. We only have I think 12 deaths per 100,000, and other countries have over 150 deaths per 100,000. We are coping with this surge. And the best way we thought to do it was to have a curtailment of activities, especially in Metro Manila Area for at least two weeks,” he added. The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) on Monday said it estimated t h e t wo - we e k e n h a n c e d c o m m u n i t y quarantine (ECQ) in the National Capital Region Plus would shave off 0.8 percentage points from economic growth this year. Apart from this, Neda said the most stringent quarantine status would result in the loss of 252,000 jobs, income loss of P30 billion, and send 102,000 more Filipinos into poverty. The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has yet to meet to review the country’s macroeconomic assumptions. In its December meeting, the DBCC projected the Philippine economy to grow by 6.5 to 7.5 percent this year and 8 to 10 percent in 2022. S e ve r a l t h i n k t a n k s h a ve a l re a d y d o w n g r a d e d t h e i r 2 0 2 1 G D P g ro w t h

forecasts for the Philippine economy. Because the country resorted to strict lockdowns last year to curb the rise of Covid-19 cases, the Philippine economy plunged by 9.5 percent, its worst performance on record since 1946.

Dollar bonds

M eanwhi l e , Dominguez also said the government is planning to sell dollar bonds “before rates skyrocket.” Last week, the Philippine government raised 55 billion yen ($500 million or P24 billion) from its sale of three-year zero-coupon Samurai bonds. The government aims to borrow P3 trillion this year. In the same interview, Dominguez also said they have no plans to increase the national government’s borrowing from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. The finance chief said his department is already working on how to wind down the country’s debt, but reiterated they currently have no plans to introduce new tax measures. “Although I must confess that yesterday I talked to our staff and I said, you know, we have to start thinking of winding down this debt, and by sometime next year, and we have to look at potential revenue sources. So...they’re working on it right now,” he said. Dominguez earlier said they expect the national government’s debt this year to reach 57 percent of GDP. As of end-2020, the countr y’s debt to GDP ratio surged to 54.5 percent—a 14-year-high—coming from a record-low 39.6 percent. For this year, the government projects the budget deficit to rise to P1.78 trillion or 8.9 percent of GDP as expenditures are still expected to outpace revenues. Last year, fullyear budget deficit soared to a new recordhigh at P1.37 trillion, marking the first time since 1986 that it breached a trillion mark.

See “Inflation,” A2

n US 48.5560 n japan 0.4408 n UK 67.5463 n HK 6.2444 n CHINA 7.3934 n singapore 36.1980 n australia 37.1405 n EU 57.3738 n SAUDI arabia 12.9486

Source: BSP (6 April 2021)


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