BusinessMirror April 06, 2022

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War, inflation, Covid to pull down PHL growth

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HE Philippines is projected to grow below 6 percent this year and in the next two years on the back of the war in Eastern Europe, the rise in commodity prices and the pandemic, according to the World Bank. In its latest East Asia and the Pacific report, the World Bank said the Philippines is expected to post a growth of 5.7 percent this year and 5.6 percent in 2023 and 2024. The World Bank’s projection for this year was a slight downgrade from the 5.8 percent the Washington-based lender projected last year. The World Bank also said the country’s growth, should conditions worsen, could only reach 4.9 percent this year. The World Bank said its past

projection for the Philippines “was conservative so that downgrade is small.” And, East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said in a virtual briefing on Tuesday, “the reason for the downgrade is primarily the war in Ukraine. We believe that this is a shock for the whole world and it is going to affect the Philippines.” Inflation is also expected to reach 4.2 percent this year before slowing to around 3.5 percent in 2023 and 3.3 percent in 2024, while private consumption is expected to post a 5.50-percent growth this year before tracking GDP growth in 2023 and 2024. The World Bank said the country’s GDP growth will be driven

by the domestic economy and the decline in Covid-19 cases. The country also stands to benefit from looser restrictions and a wider reopening of the economy. The Washington-based lender said the domestic economy will compensate for the weak external environment influenced by the slowdown in global growth, rise in inflation, and geopolitical turmoil. “I think it was beginning to open up as I said, because of the success in containing Covid. It’s unfortunate that its opening up coincides with new global uncertainties,” Mattoo said. One of the ways to further support GDP growth, Mattoo said, is to adopt structural shifts in the

economy. One way is to go full blast on digitization which is already in high demand all over the world, especially after the pandemic. He said the country must channel resources away from sectors like tourism to digital services, as well as strengthen infrastructure facilities that will allow greater digitization. Mattoo added that building broadband facilities and improving regulatory mechanisms will help deliver better services that the Philippines can also offer to the world. “Philippines is to try and shift resources away from sectors like tourism and other sectors towards See “Growth,” A2

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Wednesday, April 6, 2022 Vol. 17 No. 180

P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages | 7 days a week

‘BEST EFFORTS’ CITED AS MARCH INFLATION HITS 4% n

By Cai U. Ordinario

Amid rising inflation, BSP chief set on H2 timeline

@caiordinario

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HE government is already doing its utmost in terms of implementing economic policy to cushion the impact of high commodity prices on the lives and livelihoods of Filipinos, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda). On Tuesday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that inflation averaged 4 percent in March this year, higher than the 3 percent posted in February, but slower than the 4.1 percent in March 2021. The average inflation for the first quarter reached 3.4 percent. PSA data showed the inflation owed to increases in costs of food, fuel and utilities. In an interview with BusinessMirror on the sidelines of the Philippine Economic Briefing, Neda Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Rosemarie G. Edillon said since the crisis is temporary, it is not advisable for the government to implement measures that could have a more permanent impact on the economy. “First, we think this crisis is temporary so we don’t need to bring in solutions that will have cascading effects down the road, [that could lead to] more permanent adverse effects and so we only need temporary solutions right now,” Edillon said. “Of course, we still think the more robust solution is to really improve our energy security. That’s where our vulnerability lies but right now, since that will take time to happen, we just want to See “Inflation,” A2

By Bianca Cuaresma

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ECONOMIC BRIEFING From left, Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO) Secretary Martin Andanar, Agriculture Secretary William Dar, Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III, Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Gov. Benjamin Diokno, Tourism Secretary Bernadette Romulo Puyat and Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez pose for a photo opportunity at the 2022 Philippine Economic Briefing at the plenary hall of PICC on Tuesday, April 5, 2022. Stories on the PEB on pages A1, A4, A12. NONIE REYES

‘GAME-CHANGING REFORMS’ LAID GROUND FOR STRONG ECONOMY By Samuel P. Medenilla @sam_medenilla

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ESPITE the pandemicstricken economy, Malacañang assured Filipinos

on Tuesday it will leave a strong economic foundation for the next administration. In his speech during the briefing of economic managers at the Philippine International Conven-

tion Center (PICC), Executive Secretary Salvador C. Medialdea said the government is confident the country’s economy will bounce back from the effects of the Covid-19 crisis, which led to

the mass closure of establishments and labor displacements in the last two years. “The pandemic disrupted the

@BcuaresmaBM

ANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno recognizes the “need to take action” in terms of monetary policy, as inflation is projected to spike further in the coming months. However, the governor confirmed on Tuesday that they’re still looking at staying the course of starting monetary policy normalization only in the second half of the year. In the press conference after the 2022 Philippine Economic Briefing, the governor said inflation will likely remain elevated in the coming months after clocking in at 4 percent in March from 3 percent in the previous month. “In the latest policy meeting, the latest assessment is that keeping the policy rate at this level was appropriate. However, the latest inflation number this March at 4 percent suggests that inflation is likely to remain elevated in the coming months,” the governor said. “This means that the BSP must be prepared to take action against price pressures from broadening and becoming more entrenched, which could translate to secondround effects,” he added.

See “Reforms,” A2 See “BSP,” A2

PESO exchange rates n US 51.4500 n japan 0.4191 n UK 67.4973 n HK 6.5672 n CHINA 8.1160 n singapore 37.9313 n australia 38.7984 n EU 56.4715 n SAUDI arabia 13.7152 Source: BSP (5 April 2022)


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