BusinessMirror
OUT NOW To order, e-mail us at bmturningpoints@businessmirror.com.ph or call 893-1662, 814-0134 to 36 Available at all National Book Store and Fully Booked branches
BusinessMirror
www.businessmirror.com.ph
A broader look at today’s business n
B C U. O
E
LECTION spending and low inflation will accelerate economic growth in the first quarter of 2016, according to a local think tank.
INSIDE
BEIJING IS WORLD’S NEW BILLIONAIRE CAPITAL
In its latest Market Call report, First Metro Investment Corp.-University of Asia and the Pacific (FMIC-UA&P) Capital Markets Research said GDP growth in the January-to-March period in 2016 will be faster than the 6.3 percent posted in the fourth quarter of 2015. “We think GDP should expand at a faster pace in Q1 2016, as the government keeps the taps open as election day nears, consumer spending is still strong, especially when compared to a fairly low base in the same quarter last
B23
GARCIA, THOMPSON SHARE LEAD
SPORTS
P. | | 7 DAYS A WEEK
Economy off to a good 2016 start–think tank
WORLD
Saturday, February 27, 2016 Vol. 11 No. 142
6%-6.5% Full-year 2016 growth projected by the FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research
IMF’S LAGARDE STILL SEES GROWTH EVEN AMID GROWING GLOBAL RISKS
We consider at the moment that the likelihood of materialization of such risks is slightly higher, but we still see growth.Ó ÑLAGARDE
year. The economy should slow down in the third quarter, but resume its robust growth in the fourth quarter,” the think tank said. The research group is also keeping its full-year GDP growth forecast of 6 percent to 6.5 percent on the back of higher spending and low oil prices, which will keep inflation low amid the worsening El Niño. Increased government spending this year, the think tank added, will not reach the target budget deficit of 2 percent. However, it is in the process of revising its inflation forecast downward on account of the low oil prices. In January the think tank estimated that inflation will average 2.5 percent this year. The FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research said crude-oil prices have been below $30 per barrel in most of January. This will help cushion the impact of El Niño C A
I
PHL stocks are sure bet to top analyst on election spending
P
A8
RESIDENTIAL elections are a boon for Philippine stocks. The nation’s benchmark equity index has climbed an average 20 percent in each of the years when the past four polls have been held, compared with an annual average of 14 percent since 1992, the date of the first elections since the ouster of dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos. The battle for the presidency will salvage stocks this year, as spending by politicians and officials spurs profit growth at media and consumer companies, according to Luz Lorenzo, the nation’s top-ranked analyst. Filipinos go to polls on May 9 to choose a president and vice S “S,” A
AP PHOTO
UNITED NATIONS
AP PHOTO
MEDIA PARTNER OF THE YEAR
2015 ENVIRONMENTAL MEDIA AWARD LEADERSHIP AWARD 2008
NTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said she still sees growth intact, even amid growing risks to the global economy. As finance chiefs from the world’s 20 biggest economies begin a two-day meeting in Shanghai, Lagarde cited threats from geopolitical risk, the credit cycle, capital outflows and falling commodity prices. “We consider at the moment that the likelihood of materialization of such risks is slightly higher, but we still see growth,” she said. China is in a massive transition toward focusing on services and consumption, and the IMF strongly recommended that the nation set a growth target range of 6 percent to 6.5 percent, Lagarde said. The government this month said it set a 6.5 percent-to-7 percent range for its economic-growth target this year, slower than last year’s goal of about 7 percent. Meanwhile, the effects of central bank monetary policies, even innovative ones, are diminishing, Lagarde said on Friday at an Institute of International Finance conference on the sidelines of the Group of 20 finance ministers’ and central bankers’ meeting. The IMF this week urged the world’s biggest economies to come up with new ways to support demand and contain risks, as the outlook for global growth deteriorates. The Washington, D.C.-based fund wants G-20 nations to unleash fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. Officials, including US Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, have talked down prospects for a major global effort to stem financialmarket turbulence. Bloomberg News
El Niño, global headwinds sour business sentiment for Q1 2016
B
B B C
USINESS sentiment soured under the latest survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in the first quarter, with businessmen anticipating a dip in the economy’s performance as consequence of so-called local and global headwinds. In the survey, the BSP said business optimism weakened in the January-to-March period, with the overall confidence index (CI) declining to 41.9 percent.
This marks a significant decrease from the 51.3 percent CI in the fourth quarter last year, when the so-called CI averaged 6.3 percent for the quarter. The CI is computed as the percentage of optimistic firms minus the percentage of pessimistic firms looking at the local economy. A higher CI means the number of optimists proved greater than the number of pessimists for the period. The BSP reported respondents who held less sanguine outlook of the economy on quarter-onquarter basis was due to seasonal factors, such as the postholiday slowdown in business activity.
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 47.6770
The adverse effects of El Niño on crop production and on businesses were also part of the seasonal factors behind the drop in confidence. Local firms were also concerned with the topsy-turvy external sector, whose volatility could unduly impact the local scene, including worries on the outlook for global growth given continued weakness in China and the decline in global oil prices and other commodities. Businesses have also adopted a wait-and-see attitude with regard to the outcome of the 2016 national and local elections.
Strong market competition and the bearish trend of the Philippine stock market also weighed rather heavily on their outlook in the first quarter. The sentiment of businesses in the Philippines mirrored the less sanguine business outlook in the United Kingdom, Germany, China and South Korea, but was in contrast to the views of firms in the United States, Canada, France, the Netherlands and Russia. Across various sectors, firms in the services and wholesale and retail trade sectors were less favorable compared to that in the fourth quarter of 2015, while the sentiment of
construction-related firms was steady. Industrial firms, meanwhile, were more buoyant. For the next quarter, businesses turned more optimistic, with a CI rising to 49.6 percent. “The next quarter confidence index suggests that economic growth could be higher for the next quarter,” the BSP said. Among the factors that spurred the optimism of firms in the second quarter this year include electionrelated spending; sustained increase in orders and volume of production; increase in demand during summer with higher influx of tourists; and expansion of new product lines for the quarter.
n JAPAN 0.4224 n UK 66.5809 n HK 6.1366 n CHINA 7.2963 n SINGAPORE 34.0380 n AUSTRALIA 34.3519 n EU 52.6020 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.7169
Source: BSP (26 February 2016 )