BusinessMirror February 10, 2016

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Wednesday, February 10, 2016 Vol. 11 No. 125

FOREIGN BIZ GROUPS HOPING NEW ADMIN WOULD ADOPT THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS

Aquino a failure if gauged vs JFC’s Arangkada targets

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F the Arangkada Philippines blueprint of the Joint Foreign Chambers (JFC)—which set medium-term targets for investments and job generation when it was launched back in 2010—is to be made as basis, the Aquino administration was a resounding failure. Consider these: Arangkada’s foreign direct investment (FDI) target was an average of $7.5 billion a year from 2011 to 2015, while President Aquino was only able to deliver an average FDI haul of $3.9 billion. John D. Forbes, senior adviser of

INSIDE

PARKER’S COMING

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ENTR AL banks’ ultra-loose monetar y polic y is putting the world economy at risk, said William White, a senior adviser to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Negative interest rates and quantitative-easing programs from the US to Japan may have unintended side effects, such as higher debt levels for both sovereigns and consumers, said White, who leads the OECD’s Economic and Development

JFC recommended to reach the target was not done,” Forbes said in a text message. ‘Seven big winners’ THE Arangkada recommendations—had they been implemented—would have set the enabling environment for the robust growth of the JFC’s so-called seven big winners, sectors that the Philippines have strong potentials.

GERALD ARCEGA, who wants to run for president in the coming elections, files his certificate of candidacy last October 12. ALYSA SALEN B M R M

C  A

—OECD’s White

BusinessMirror

‘NONELITIST’ ELECTORAL SYSTEM BREEDING NUISANCE CANDIDATES

Potential FDI that the Philippines can attract annually through the “seven big winners” of JFC

Negative interest rates and quantitative-easing programs from the US to Japan may have unintended side effects.” Review Committee. Central bankers have been dragged away from their focus on inflation, as governments

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$10B-$12B

Policies of central banks putting global economy at risk—OECD

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the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (AmCham), knows the reason behind the failure. “We targeted an average of $7.5 billion a year for a decade [to 2020] and have a total of about $20 billion for 2011-2015. But everything the

P.  |     | 7 DAYS A WEEK

struggle to generate sustainable growth, he added. C  A

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Conclusion

HEN Clarence Darrow was a boy, he was told that anybody could become President of the United States. “I’m beginning to believe it,” Darrow said in a biography of him by American writer Irving Stone. Darrow may have taken a snipe at William Bryant, a threetime presidential aspirant who defended a law against teaching human evolution in state-funded schools. Darrow’s words ring true today and in the Philippines, as candidates seeking elected posts in the national government have increased. For the 2010 elections, some 277 filed their respective certificate of candidacy (COC) for presidential, vice-presidential and senatorial positions. For this year’s voting exercise, that number rose to 321. Of that, 203 were declared as “nuisance” by the Commission on Elections (Comelec). “Ordinary folks [believe] they can make a difference, too, in Philippine politics,” political analyst Dennis C. Coronacion said. “That is the nature of our political system.” The Philippines’s multiparty political system was born after dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos was deposed three decades ago. After Marcos’s military rule, people had an insight that even inexperienced individuals can lead the country, according to political analyst Prospero de Vera. Originally, Filipinos tended to elect statesmen, especially during the post-American War era, he explained. After martial law, housewife Corazon C. Aquino was swept into office as the first female president of the Republic. Our government has a pendulum shift that was impossible to bring back into swing, said de Vera, who is also vice president for public affairs of the University of the Philippines.

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FILING a COC is a matter of right. Every Filipino who is eligible for a position in the government has a right to file, as long as he or she meets the requirements. Even the habitual “nuisance candidate” deserves due process, no matter how many elections they have attempted to be a part of, according to de Vera. C  A

n JAPAN 0.4120 n UK 68.8837 n HK 6.1226 n CHINA 7.2678 n SINGAPORE 33.9694 n AUSTRALIA 33.8513 n EU 53.4257 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.7244

Source: BSP (9 February 2016 )

A2 Wednesday, February 10, 2016

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‘Nonelitist’ electoral system breeding nuisance candidates… C  

“They logically understand the problems of the country.” Coronacion believes these candidates, whether tagged as nuisance, but who has not tasted electoral victory, should be given a chance to be voted into office. It may be a strategic move if we decide to give other kinds of candidates a try, he told the BM. “They are unlike seasoned politicians. This is especially true because if you’re coming from outside Congress, you have not been elected and I think you have a different perspective, a different approach in solving problems.” Coronacion said he sees unseasoned politicians as “sources of a fresh perspective.” Likewise, electing these candidates infuses democracy. “ The essence of democracy is that they [politicians] take turns in ruling.” For de Vera, having ordinary people engaging in electoral exercise reflects the deep-seated frustrations over traditional politicians. “It was recognition that, despite all these brilliant people, life has not dramatically improved,” de Vera said. “We need an antidynasty law,” to curb the power given to the president of the Philippines, he added. De Vera said such power is too much.

Systemic

THE Philippines has a presidential system that heightens conflict, according to de Vera. In the US the only person who can say he was voted upon or that he is the choice of the American people is the president, he explained. The US vice president (VP) is not elected nationwide, and senators and representatives are elected by district. According to de Vera, even the speaker of the House cannot claim he has a national constituency. There is no Senate president in the US; the VP sits as presiding officer. In the US the president has no equal. The next equal of the president is the speaker, but he is not elected, de Vera explained. In the Philippines, we elect a VP nationwide, as well as vote for senators. “So you have 24 senators plus one vice president; you have 25 individuals who wake up every day telling themselves, ‘I could do a better job than the president’ because they can also claim a national constituency. Some of them might even get more votes [compared to] the president.” However, conflict is a characteristic of democracy, de Vera explained. “A characteristic of our democracy that we should accept is that there will always be those who challenge the system.” The general principle here is that we fought very hard to make sure suffrage universal, he added.

“Everyone can vote and has no restrictions based on sex, gender or property. We fought very hard to accomplish that.” Of course, he explained, nuisance candidates are called such because they present platforms that “put the election process in mockery,” with uncanny political statements that allow them their 15 seconds of fame. “However, not all those declared as nuisance ridicule the system. Some are declared as so because they lack resources and support to campaign around the country.”

Maturity

WHILE welcome, the conflict embedded in the Philippine political system also reflects its failure to promote social maturity and further develop institutions, according to de Vera. “The country’s political institutions do not work together to hasten democratic improvement. Some characteristics of our democratic system do not promote societal maturity. Instead, it invites conflict.” Theoretically, even if the three branches of the government—executive, legislative and judiciary— are seen as equals, when push comes to shove, the executive branch can exert more power than the other two, de Vera explained. One of the problems of the Constitution of the Republic of the Philippines include

embedding too much power in the president, he added. “The Philippine president is more powerful than the US president because we embedded in the Constitution the powers that centralize authority.” However, this does not mean if we cannot change our Constitution, we cannot practice our democracy better, de Vera said. There are some things that can be done as we await the Constitution to be amended, including legislating political party reform. “You can incrementally improve our democracy by implementing existing laws and enacting important legislation that will aid our electoral system.” According to de Vera, the Philippines version of democracy is still far from being mature. “What we have is a procedural democracy meaning we have the processes in place: universal voting and the percentage of registered voters and people who actually vote are high,” However, de Vera said the procedures “don’t produce the best choices.” Likewise, de Vera added that, while procedural democracies have produced political parties, the ones in the Philippines “do not seem to mature over time.” Likew ise, “the institutions and political processes are not as high [in terms of maturity] and respected as those in countries

with mature democracies.”

Democracy

MALAYSIA is younger than the Philippines in terms of having been endowed with democracy. However, this country’s Southeast Asian neighbor has a democratic process considered by de Vera more mature than the Philippines. That is why Malaysia is considered more prosperous compared to us, he said. To note, Malaysia’s GDP growth rate in 2014 was at 6 percent, compared to the Philippines’s 6.1 percent, according to World Bank data. Malaysians do not separate the person from the position, especially in times of addressing national issues, according to de Vera. “So when the person is attacked, it doesn’t necessarily mean they are plotting to bring him down, because the position is a national priority. The only way to depose a politician is for due process to move.” Hence, comparing the Philippines, de Vera said, “some of our democratic processes do not hasten a mature democracy.” For example, we elect our president and our VP separately, according to de Vera. “That does not foster cooperation and platform of the government; it fosters competition. Kasi ang tendency ng Pilipino is they elect the opposites. Coronacion argues the lack of

maturity in the Philippines version of democracy is not because of a failure of democracy itself. What the country has is a “weak state,” wherein our government institutions and structures have failed to develop, he said. “Political parties do not have a strong stance and the measure of its strength is based on an individual, not as a collective group of people.”

Long way

BOTH de Vera and Coronacion acknowledge there is a flaw in the country’s political system. “This means we have a long way, a long long way to go before we develop a mature democracy,” de Vera said. “Our dreams of becoming a great, rich nation, democracy has failed to deliver that,” Coronacion said. “But I am still optimistic. All we need to do is institute reform [in the political system].” For Coronacion, that means enacting a law deterring dynasties from coming into power and further promoting engagement of ordinary Filipinos in the electoral exercise. Take vendor Jae Legaspi for one. When asked by the BM whether he would run for president, he didn’t flinch a pause while drying a pile of plates. “Kung may mababago ako, bakit hindi? [If I can institute change, why not?]” With Dennis D. Estopace

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DANCE TRADE This February 9 photo shows men performing a traditional dragon dance parade inside the Philippine Stock Exchange building to welcome the first day of trading of the Chinese New Year. ALYSA SALEN

Govt eyeing to cut palay production cost by 22%

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B M G P

HE Department of Agriculture (DA) is targeting to cut the cost of producing paddy rice by 22 percent to P8.50 per kilogram from the current P11 per kg in its bid to make Filipino farmers more competitive.

Agriculture Secretary Proceso J. Alcala said the government intends to do this by expanding its farm-mechanization program and improving farmers’ access to government financial institutions.

“We need to lower the cost of producing palay to P8.50 per kg so local farmers can become more competitive. This needs a lot of work, particularly in the area of farm mechanization,” Alcala said.

Manila intensifies disaster-preparedness campaign following Taiwan killer quake

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B J . S J

HE Manila City government is tapping its 7,000 disaster managers to help train people in every barangay on disaster preparedness following a killer quake that hit Taiwan on Sunday. In an interview with reporters, Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada said he called for a heightened city-wide disaster readiness, as he joined the international community in grieving over the casualties of the magnitude-6.4 quake that hit Taiwan. “As we extend our deepest sympathies for the victims in this tragedy, I, likewise, call on all officials and personnel of our local government, as well as on all sectors and the people in general in our city, to heighten awareness on and preparedness for earthquakes and other disasters,” Estrada said. The mayor ordered a fully coordinated preparation and response to any possible

disaster that may hit the city of Manila. Meanwhile, Johnny Yu, officer in charge of the Manila Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (MDRRMO), said concerned city officials are still in the process of putting up the Manila Community Emergency Response Team (MCERT) in all barangays. Part of the plan is the training of up to 7,000 disaster managers to help train community responders in every barangay. The city government is also in the thick of preparations for the holding of the Second Manila Disaster Conference, which is scheduled next month. In 2015 Estrada called for a city-wide disaster drill and awareness that focused on preparations for safety and evacuation. Yu said they are continuously beefing up the city’s disaster preparedness with the acquisition of rescue boats, search and rescue equipment, amphibious trucks and rescue vans.

The DA chief said local rice farmers are capable of edging out farmers in other Southeast Asian countries as imported rice are slapped a 35-percent tariff. “Making locally produced rice cheaper will discourage smugglers, as retail prices of Philippine rice would be on a par with rice brought into the country illegally,” Alcala said. To encourage more farmers to go into planting rice, he said the DA wants to improve their access to government financial institutions where they can obtain production loans. Alcala said farmers who wish to avail themselves of production loans may consider tapping the DA’s “Sikat Saka,” program, where

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Cost producing a kilo of paddy rice in the Philippines farmers can borrow as much as P52,000 per hectare. “We will also continue to give out technology and postharvest facilities needed to boost production. Market access is also important,” A lcala added. The DA chief said the government was encouraged by results of a competition dubbed as the “Pa-

layabangan: The 10-5 challenge.” The Palayabangan aims to raise palay production to 10 metric tons (MT) per hectare at a cost of P5 per kg. “From this challenge, we have seen some farmers reaching up to 8 MT per hectare, at a cost of only P6.50,” Alcala said. Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the cost of producing palay in the country averaged P42,061 per hectare in 2013. Cash outlays at P19,715 per hectare comprised nearly 50 percent of total production cost. “Palay production averaged 3.5 MT per hectare. The gross value of production amounted to P58,894 per hectare, or P16.77

Aquino a failure if gauged vs JFC’s Arangkada targets

Policies of central banks putting global economy at risk–OECD C  A

“The objective of that policy has changed totally—it’s trying to stimulate a g g re g ate d e m a n d a n d t h e h o n e s t truth is that it’s not capable of doing that in a sustainable way,” White said in Bloomberg Television interview on Tuesday. “If people thought we were in a period of deleveraging, that would set the scene for a period of robust growth. We haven’t even started yet.” Investors are looking for European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to ease policy in the euro area further as early as March as the slump in oil drags down inflation, while the Bank of England has dialed back talk of increasing rates and bets on the Fed hiking again are retreating. Japan’s 10-year bond yields fell below zero for the first time ever on

Tuesday after the central bank imposed negative interest rates on bank reserves.

Strain on banks

WHITE said he is “skeptical” about the benefits of such moves because of the strain they put on the banking system. “Negative rates on reserves are actually squeezing bank profits, and this is something we don’t want in these circumstances; we want them to build up their capital buffets,” he said. “This is all experimental.” White said the global economy needs those governments with budget leeway to boost spending. He added that policymakers should pay more attention to wage growth, which remains “too low.” He said governments also need to make further structural reforms to boost growth and take a more systematic approach to debt reduction. Bloomberg News

EUROPEAN Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines Vice President Henry Schumacher (center) explains the fifth Arangkada Philippines Forum, a project of the Joint Foreign Chambers (JFC) of the Philippines, on February 9. Launched in 2010, Arangkada Philippines is the major advocacy of the JFC to increase investment and employment in the Philippines. This year’s forum, according to Schumacher, has the theme “A bolder and more inclusive decade.” Flanking Schumacher are Canadian Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines Inc. President Julian Payne (left) and Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Yoshio Amano. ALYSA SALEN C  A

These are the Agribusiness; Information Technology-Business Process Management; Creative Industries; Infrastructure; Manufacturing and Logistics; Mining; Tourism, Medical Travel and Retirement. Today, the AmCham and other members of the JFC are still pinning their hopes on these sectors; and they’ve even up the ante in terms of the FDI goal for the next few years, with the change in administration set to take place by June.

New admin, new goal, same recommendations

THE JFC on Tuesday said attracting $10 billion to $12 billion annually by 2018 is a good target if the next administration would move faster in putting in place key policy reforms. Henry J. Schumacher, external vice president of the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, said to remind policy-makers of the JFC’s recommendations, they have set another Arangkada Forum on March 1, or more than a month before the

May national elections. “The money is in the region. We have no doubt the Philippines is capable of doubling the amount of FDI, as seen in the last two years,” Forbes said. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the average FDI gained during the Aquino administration from 2011 to 2015 was $3.9 billion, doubling the annual average of $1.5 billion during the Arroyo administration. From January to October 2015, the Philippines netted a total FDI of $4.98 billion, a drop of almost

per kg. Returns above cash costs averaged P39,179 per hectare,” the PSA said. I n 2010 a for mer of f ic i a l of the National Economic and Development Authority urged far mers to shif t to pl anting high-value crops as planting rice is a “poverty trap.” Apart from the high cost of inputs, far mers a lso have to contend w ith the ill effects of climate change. Last year the countr y’s palay output dropped by 4.31 percent to 18.15 million metric tons (MMT) from 18.97 MMT produced in 2014. The PSA said rice farms recorded lower production due to El Niño and Ty phoon Lando (international code name Koppu).

5 percent from the same period in 2014, when full-year FDI reached a record-high $6 billion. The Arangkada Philippines initiative of the JFC also targeted 10 million jobs for the period 20102020. “With more reforms, $10 billion to $12 billion a year could be expected, which could possibly reach the original $75-billion total for a decade. And for the decade after 2020, it could be even higher. Hopefully, the next president would prioritize higher investment targets,” Forbes added. A steady growth, which could go as fast as 10 percent, is on the horizon if a reform-oriented leader would step in, the JFC said. Julian Pay ne, president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines, said three fundamental issues must be addressed, and these are the usual suspects: easing of the FDI restrictions, openness to globally significant trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and bureaucratic red tape. The JFC also noted that honoring the sanctity of contracts, a review of the government procurement law, and notable tax reforms should be high on the agenda of the next Chief Executive. The present administration has failed to act on the chief proposal of the JFC, which is to amend certain economic provisions of the Constitution. This was stalled due mainly to the hard-line stance of President Aquino against Charter change. The Fifth Philippines Arangkada Forum will serve as the venue for foreign business groups to air their “priority issues” for the assessment and consideration of the presidential candidates. President Aquino and the presidential candidates have been invited to the forum. The event will be held at the Marriott Grand Ballroom with the theme, “A Bolder and More Inclusive Decade.” Catherine N. Pillas

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Asean CEOs see higher sales, hiring, investments B C N. P

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PTIMISM among Asean CEOs significantly improved in the January cycle of the YPO Global Pulse Survey, reflecting their projection of higher sales, investment and hiring in the coming months. The YPO Sales Confidence Index for Asean jumped 9.8 points to 67.8, while fixed investment increased an impressive 9.1 points, landing at 64.4. Hiring expectations were optimistic, as well, with confidence climbing 5.2 points to 60.6. This improvement transpired amid expectations that the economy of China, perennially among the top markets of Asean firms, is on the recovery path. Asean’s confidence levels in the fourth quarter showed a marked difference from the previous quarters when positive sentiment was at an all-time low. According to the survey, the fears were propelled by the continued fall of oil prices, coupled with the spiking value of the dollar. Emerging nations highly dependent on imported raw materials in manufacturing, have been incurring higher production cost and muted demand because of the 20-percent increase in value of the dollar, said Terry O’Connor, YPO Southeast Asia chairman. “However, YPO CEOs from Asean nations are now hopeful that sales will improve as China’s GDP growth levels out and that they will remain at a steady pace in years to come,” he added.

AseanWednesday BusinessMirror

Editor: Max V. de Leon • Wednesday, February 10, 2016 A5

Washington tries to balance defense, democracy in relations with Bangkok

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NE of Asia’s largest war games kicks off in Thailand on Tuesday with scaled-back US involvement, highlighting tensions between the longtime allies over Thailand’s lack of democracy at a time of growing Chinese influence in Southeast Asia. Some 8,500 soldiers from seven nations—Thailand, the US, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia—will take part in Cobra Gold’s core activities over the 11 days of exercises, according to a Thai military statement. A further 21 nations will participate in reduced roles, including China as part of a humanitarian assistance session. Though the US sees Cobra Gold as “an integral part of the US commitment to strengthen engagement in the region,” for a second straight year it is turning up with a reduced contingent, said Melissa Sweeney, a spokesman at the US Embassy in Bangkok. “The 2016 exercise will remain reduced in size to limit the type of activities it contains to reflect our concerns with Thailand’s political developments,” she said.

8,500

war games

Number of soldiers from seven nations participating in the Cobra Gold

Balancing alliances

THE US is trying to balance its need to nurture a key alliance with showing displeasure over Thailand’s May 2014 coup and the military government’s lack of progress on holding elections. It’s a balance that Washington has had to strike

before in Cobra Gold’s 35-year history due to Thailand’s frequent military takeovers, though one now complicated by China’s increasing assertiveness in the region. “Both sides have become used to dealing with Thailand’s persistent couping and the need for Washington to distance itself from military regimes,” said Paul Chambers, director of research at the Institute of Southeast Asian Affairs in Chiang Mai. “Obama is walking a fine tightrope of balancing US interests with US values. Full participation would anger human-rights lobbies. No participation might distance the Thai military from the US.” Thailand is a non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally that served as a staging ground for American forces during the Vietnam War, and the Pentagon continues to value its strategic access to the nation’s airfields and ports. Still, Washington immediately condemned the latest putsch, Thailand’s second in eight years, and was required by law to cut some military aid to the country. The junta has said it will rule for at least another 18 months.

Leadership role

“AS deep and broad as our partnership is today, it will grow stronger still when, as the prime minister has affirmed, Thailand returns to elected governance,” US Ambassador Glyn Davies said on Tuesday at the opening

ceremony. “With a strengthened, sustainable democratic system, Thailand’s regional leadership role and our alliance, can reach its full potential.” As the US sought to distance itself from the generals, China pushed for greater political, economic and military engagement. Thailand and China held their first joint military exercises last year, while the Thai navy has been pushing for a $1-billion deal to buy three Chinese submarines. China is investing in Thai railways as part of its “One Belt, One Road” initiative to revive ancient trade routes. Thailand further risked its international reputation for Beijing last year when it ignored criticism from the United Nations and rights groups and deported more than 100 ethnic Uighurs to China, as well as two dissidents who were nearing asylum resettlement in third countries. Questions have also been raised over what role the junta played in the disappearances of a pair of Chinese exiles whose families say they were abducted from Thailand and returned to the China.

Embracing China

“CHINA-THAIL AND relations, which have a good foundation to start with, have been developing rather rapidly in the past two years,” said Zhang Mingliang, a professor at the Southeast Asia Research Institute under Jinan University in Guangzhou. “Chinese investment,

now in the shape of the OBOR initiative, is being fully embraced by the Thai government,” he said, referring to the One Belt, One Road project. The move toward Beijing appears to have had some impact on the US stance. A December visit by US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel lacked the public criticism of the junta that he made on a visit 11 months earlier. Junta leader and now Prime Minister Prayuth ChanOcha is among the 10 Asean leaders invited to California next week for a regional summit with Barack Obama. “Thailand is very much a part of the whole of Washington’s Southeast Asia strategy,” said Jon Grevatt, an analyst at IHS Jane’s in Bangkok. “They regard military and defense relationships with not just Thailand but Vietnam, Indonesia as part of a multifacet strategy that also involves trade and investment, diplomatic ties, education, culture.” For all the talk of not losing Thailand to China, Grevatt said Thailand knows it can’t lose the US. “The US wields tremendous influence in global trade and global defense and inter-relations between governments,” he said. “To burn its bridges with the US would cause all kinds of problems for Thailand at a time when the country’s economy is struggling. Yes China is great, but China’s economy is also struggling.” Bloomberg News

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A6 Wednesday, February 10, 2016 | Editor: Lyn Resurreccion

briefs SEARCH FOR LIFE CONTINUES AT TAIWAN COMPLEX

TAINAN, Taiwan—Rescuers using cranes, dogs and electronic devices searched for survivors on Tuesday in a high-rise apartment complex in southern Taiwan that was toppled three days earlier by a powerful earthquake. The death toll in Saturday’s disaster stood at 40, while 320 people had been rescued, the Tainan city government said on its official web site. More than 100 people are believed still under the debris following the tragedy that struck during the most important family holiday in the Chinese calendar— the Lunar New Year. All but two of the casualties in the quake were recorded in the collapse of Tainan’s Weiguan Golden Dragon 17-story complex. Although the shallow 6.4-magnitude quake was potentially devastating, few buildings were damaged as a result of strict construction standards in force on an island that is frequently struck by quakes. Most of those who survived were rescued in the hours immediately after the quake, in which the building collapsed onto itself before toppling. AP

JUDGE REFUSES TO BLOCK SETTLEMENT OF SYRIAN REFUGEES IN TEXAS

AUSTIN, Texas—A federal judge on Monday declined to bar the federal government from settling Syrian refugees in Texas, ruling that the matter was a political question that did not belong in the courts. “Somewhat ironically, Texas, perhaps the reddest of red states, asks a federal court to stick its judicial nose into this political morass, where it does not belong absent statutory authorization,” US District Judge David Godbey wrote. “Finding no such authorization, this court will leave resolution of these difficult issues to the political process,” he said. Godbey’s order also said Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton failed to provide sufficient evidence showing that terrorists had infiltrated the refugee program, “much less that these particular refugees are terrorists intent on causing harm.” TNS

FAMILY OF LEADPOISONED FLINT GIRL, 2, FILES LAWSUIT DETROIT—The family of a 2-year-old girl who has tested positive for lead poisoning after drinking the tap water in her home has filed a lawsuit against the state of Michigan and Flint. Luke Waid, the father of 2-yearold Sophia Rodriguez-Waid, said he is concerned about the consequences the lead will have on his daughter’s brain development and his family’s health after they ingested the contaminated water. Blood lead levels of five or greater are considered to be toxic. Sophia’s blood lead levels tested at 14, according to the family. Lead exposure in children under 6 can damage organs, slow development, lead to learning and behavioral problems and more. A Detroit-based law firm, McKeen and Associates, and two New York law firms, Napoli Shknolnik Plc. and Slater Slater Schulman Llp., will represent the family in the lawsuit, which was filed on Monday in federal court. Shknolnik has managed more than 150 lead poisoning cases and Schulman has expertise in lead poisoning cases. TNS

JOSIANE DA SILVA holds her son Jose Elton, who was born with microcephaly, outside her house in Alcantil, Paraiba state, Brazil, on Sunday. AP/FELIPE DANA

AS U.S. MOSQUITO EXPERTS MEET

Obama seeks emergency funds vs Zika

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ASHINGTON—The Obama administration will ask Congress for $1.8 billion in emergency funding to combat the Zika virus—a disease that the president says is a cause for concern but not panic. The White House announced the request to cover research and planning in the United States and abroad minutes after CBS aired an interview with President Barack Obama during which he said “there shouldn’t be panic on this—this is not something where people are going to die from.” Still, the president made clear “it is something we have to take seriously.” “The good news is this is not like Ebola, people don’t die of Zika,” Obama said during an interview on Monday on CBS This Morning. “A lot of people get it and don’t even know that they have it,” he noted. “There appears to be some significant risk for pregnant women or women who are thinking about getting pregnant. “We don’t know exactly what the relations there are, but there is enough correlation that we have to take this very seriously,” Obama said. “And so we are going to be putting up a legislative proposal to Congress to resource both the research on vaccines and diagnostics, but also helping in terms of

$1.8B Emergency funding to combat Zika will be asked from Congress

public-health systems.” In a fact sheet released shortly after the interview, the White House said it has been “aggressively working” for several months “to combat Zika.” The virus, typically transmitted through mosquitoes, but also known to be sexually transmitted, has been linked to birth defects and other ailments. If approved by law makers, the funding would be used “to enhance our ongoing efforts to prepare for and respond to the Zika virus, both domestically and internationally,” according to the White House, including “rapid ly ex panding mosquito control programs; accelerating

vaccine research and diagnostic development; [and] enabling the testing and procurement of vaccines and diagnostics,” according to the White House. The White House is also planning to step up work on fighting the virus’ impact on unborn babies. It says it needs some of the $1.8 billion to accelerate efforts on “educating health-care providers, pregnant women and their partners; improving epidemiology and expanding laboratory and diagnostic testing capacity; improving health services and supports for low-income pregnant women; and enhancing the ability of Zika-affected countries to better combat mosquitoes and control transmission.” The lion’s share of the request, $1.5 billion, would be channeled to the Department of Health and Human Services. Its share would include $828 million for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for work on “mosquito control programs,” enhanced work at laboratories, creation of rapidresponse teams and other efforts. Another $250 million would go to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to enhance health-care services for at-risk or infected pregnant women in Puerto Rico, as well as children there who have microcephaly, a condition that results in abnormally small heads when pregnant women are infected. Various other agencies, including the National Institutes

of Health and the Food and Drug Administration would receive the rest of the money for such things as increased “research, rapid advanced development and commercialization of new vaccines and diagnostic tests” and to help other countries deal with the virus and halt its spread, the fact sheet states. The administration did not disclose exactly when the emergency funding request would be sent to Capitol Hill, saying only that it would be submitted “shortly.” The CDC says, so far, it has no evidence of “locally transmitted Zika cases…in the continental United States.” However, the center notes in its own fact sheet that “cases have been reported in returning travelers.” To date, the center has reported 50 confirmed cases of American travelers who have the virus. The mosquitoes that, spread the Zika virus are among the hardest species to fight because they live and breed in spots where water collects inside houses and yards, insect experts noted on Monday at the opening of the American Mosquito Control Association’s annual conference. Experts noted that while the Zika virus that has spread rapidly in Latin America may be new to the US, the two mosquito species known to carry it are not. Aedes aegypti, the mosquito blamed for the Zika outbreak linked to birth defects in Brazil, can be found in the southern US

from Florida to California. Another carrier is the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, which has a more northerly range that includes cities such as Chicago and New York. US mosquito fighters have already dealt with these species to prevent outbreaks of dengue fever and chikungunya virus, said Joe Conlon, the association’s technical director. “It’s business as usual, because we know how to control these mosquitoes,” Conlon said. “But in order to get rid of these things, you have to be very fastidious.” Some cities and counties are already taking steps to get ready before their mosquito breeding seasons begin in earnest this spring. New Orleans’s mosquito control department has lined up laboratories at Louisiana State University and Tulane University that are able to screen mosquitoes caught in surveillance traps for the Zika virus, department Director Claudia Riegel said. Harry Savage, chief entomologist with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said his best guess is that Zika infections transmitted within the US will stay relatively small—much like dengue fever, which averaged 25 cases per year from 2010 to 2015—though he said he can’t be sure. Because of screened windows and air conditioning, Savage said, mosquitoes are far less likely to be found breeding inside US homes than they are in Latin and Central American countries. TNS and AP

Trump, Sanders expect to win in New Hampshire primary

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EDFORD, New Hampshire— Republican Donald Trump appeared poised to clinch his first victory in Tuesday’s first-inthe-nation primary in New Hampshire, while Sen. Bernie Sanders was cruising to a likely win over Hillary Clinton in what has become an unexpectedly competitive Democratic race. As snowfall brought yet more uncertainty to the race’s final hours, Hillary Clinton tried to move past talk of a shakeup in her campaign and controversy over comments by supporters that women should feel obliged to vote for her to become the first female president. Campaigning across

the northeastern state on Monday with her husband and daughter, she worked to flip Sanders’s favored critique against her by claiming that he, too, had taken money from Wall Street—if only indirectly. The New Hampshire primary traditionally plays a pivotal role by providing momentum to the winners heading into the next contests in South Carolina and Nevada. Those candidates who fare poorly could see donations dry up and face pressure to withdraw from the race. In the last 10 elections, the winner of the Republican primary went on to become the eventual nominee eight times; on the Demo-

cratic side, seven winners went on to become nominees. Trump, the billionaire businessman, launched the harshest attacks—not just against Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who had bested him in Iowa, but also against Jeb Bush. The former Florida governor is one of three Republicans hoping that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s recent stumbles have opened a fresh path for one of them to emerge as the more mainstream alternative to Trump and Cruz. “Jeb is having some kind of a breakdown, I think,” Trump told CNN, calling Bush, the son and brother of presidents, a spoiled child and an embarrassment to his

family. “I think it’s a very sad situation that’s taking place.” The enmity was mutual. Vying for votes in Nashua, Bush described Trump variably as a loser, a liar, a whiner and the worst choice for president. He blasted what he said was Trump’s proclivity for “insulting women, castigating Hispanics, ridiculing the disabled and calling American POWs [prisoners of war] losers.” Trump did get in a shot at Cruz during a massive rally in Manchester on Monday night. When an audience member shouted out an insult directed at Cruz—a vulgar term for “coward”—Trump repeated the term and jokingly reprimanded the

woman.Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler responded via e-mail, saying, “Let’s not forget who whipped who in Iowa.” Still, Trump was running ahead in preprimary polls, as was Sanders on the Democratic side as candidates race to collect delegates for the parties’ national nominating conventions in July. Not so long ago, Republicans saw New Hampshire as the proving ground that would winnow their unwieldy field of candidates. Rubio’s surge into third place in Iowa one week ago raised the prospect that voters here would anoint him over Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. AP

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N. Korea undeterred in building rocket against US

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IM JONG UN can’t be deterred. The North Korean leader, whose February 7 long-range rocket launch drew condemnation from China, Russia and the US, showed again that global criticism and the threat of more sanctions won’t sway him from his ultimate goal: Building a missile that can strike the US.

United Nations Security Council representatives met soon after the launch and vowed to adopt new restrictions on North Korea. China, the country’s biggest trading partner, criticized the launch, while South Korea and the US said they would discuss deploying new defensive systems on the peninsula. That won’t stop Kim. “Their [North Korea] principle objective is to have the ability to be able to threaten the US homeland with nuclear attack,” said Joseph DeThomas, a former US deputy assistant secretary of state for Nonproliferation. While missile-technology experts say North Korea is years away from achieving the technical sophistication to wage a nuclear strike on American soil, the launch by the isolated nation was a step forward, carrying a payload double the weight of the previous launch.

ICBM reach

AN attack against the US by Pyongyang requires an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that can travel farther than 5,500 kilometers while carrying a warhead weighing at least 1 ton. In order to cover such distances, the self-guided munition must travel through outer space and reenter the atmosphere, all, while keeping the warhead stable for detonation upon contact. That’s a tall order for a country

as isolated internationally as North Korea. Yet the country is working to develop a missile called Taepodong-2 with a range of 10,000 km, according to South Korea’s Defense Ministry. The rocket used this week showed technological developments “applicable to North Korea’s other long-range missile programs,” US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vincent Stewart said in a statement prepared for delivery on Tuesday to the Senate Armed Services Committee. In addition, the country’s restarted enrichment facilities have been operating long enough that they “could begin to recover plutonium from the reactor’s spent fuel within a matter of weeks to months,” according to an advance summary of the Worldwide Threat Assessment statement by the US intelligence community. The regime in Pyongyang has conducted four nuclear tests over the years in the face of UN sanctions, most recently last month.

No surprise

THE US says it has the capacity to defend against a North Korea attack. “Our posture right now is adequate to the challenge” posed by North Korea, Pentagon Spokesman Peter Cook said on February 8. “There’s nothing about this launch this weekend that comes as a surprise to the Department of Defense.” South Korea’s Defense Ministry

NORTH Koreans gather at the Kim Il Sung Square to celebrate a satellite launch on Monday in Pyongyang, North Korea. People in Pyongyang danced and watched fireworks the day after a rocket launch that has been strongly condemned by many countries around the world. AP/JON CHOL JIN

said the rocket successfully put a satellite into orbit, though it has yet to verify if it is operating normally, Yonhap News reported. North Korea is also presumed to be in possession of a projectile with a range of as much as 12,000 km—able to reach the east coast of the US— Yonhap said, citing the ministry. Kim is willing to risk the wrath of the US, his Chinese patrons and the global community because his regime views long-range nuclear capabilities as an essential survival mechanism, according to Terence Roehrig, a professor of national security affairs at the US Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. And while China said it regretted the launch, it has repeatedly stood

5,500 km needed for North Korea’s ICBM to reach the US against any significant tightening of sanctions to avoid creating chaos on part of its border.

Cautious China

THAT reality eases the pressure on Kim and limits the options for his opponents. “Pyongyang will not give up its nuclear weapons,” Roehrig said. “The priority must now shift to limiting the growth of its arsenal.”

US Secretary of State John Kerry failed last month during a visit to Beijing to secure China’s support for tougher sanctions, with the countries agreeing only to pursue a new UN Security Council resolution. The US has sought measures, such as bans on oil exports to Pyongyang. China shares a 1,400km-long border with North Korea and supplies most of its energy and food imports. “There is a lot of ‘head room’ in the North Korea sanctions program—in terms of much more that the US and the UN could have done, but have not,” said Adam M. Smith, former senior adviser to the director of the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

“This is due to a fairly complicated set of reasons involving both an absence of political will on behalf of the major powers and some challenges in implementing sanctions on a country with a very limited external economy.” China would need to endorse stronger action to bring Kim and his weapons program to heel, said Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu. “We need to break the cycle,” Cossa said. “The best way to do this is to spell out in advance the consequences of the next provocation, so that the next action brings us together rather than provides yet another opportunity for Pyongyang to divide and conquer.” Bloomberg News

US responses to Pyongyang nuclear, missile tests will upset China

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ASHINGTON—North Korean nuclear and rocket tests are drawing quick responses from the US that will upset a supposed partner against Pyongyang’s weapons development—China. New efforts to toughen South Korea’s missile-defense system and sanctions legislation moving swiftly through Congress could both hurt Chinese interests. The Chinese are concerned the missile-defense system could be used against them, and the US sanctions could hit Chinese companies that trade with North Korea. The US and China both oppose North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and have characterized it as an issue they cooperate

on, even though China is an old ally of the North. But a January 6 underground nuclear explosion and Sunday’s rocket launch that world leaders called a test of ballisticmissile technology have exposed stark differences between Washington and Beijing on how to deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s provocations. Beijing is reluctant to impose stiff economic sanctions, fearing a collapse of North Korea’s economy and a flight of refugees across the border into China. But even if the UN Security Council can’t agree on the kind of tough measures that Washington wants, the US can act on its own to pressure Pyongyang. For some time, the US has been nudging its close ally South Korea

toward allowing the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), missile defense system on its soil. Seoul, which hosts 28,500 US forces, has been reluctant to initiate talks on the system that could hurt its improving relations with Beijing. But soon after North Korea on Sunday launched a rocket carrying an Earth observation satellite into space, the US and South Korea announced they were looking into a possible THAAD deployment. “We would like to see this move as quickly as possible,” Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook told reporters on Monday. He said consultations would begin within days. China was quick to make its displeasure known. In a

commentary on Monday, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency said a deployment could trigger a regional arms race. “It would be unwise for the United States to act arbitrarily in disregard of international opposition just to serve its own interests of carrying out its ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy,” the commentary said, referring to President Barack Obama’s effort to increase the US presence in the Asia-Pacific region, in part to counter the rise of China. Cook said a THAAD deployment would be directed solely at North Korea and no other country should be concerned. But critics including Theodore Postol, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, have said the

system could help US radar spot missiles from China. On the economic front, the US sanctions legislation could also cause discomfort in Beijing, which is North Korea’s main trading partner and source of economic support. On Wednesday the Senate is expected to pass the North Korea Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act that aims to expand and tighten economic restrictions to block the Kim regime’s access to hard currency, targeting both North Korean entities and companies in other countries like China that deal with them. The House of Representatives last month passed a version of the bill amid frustration that US policy has failed to stop Pyong-

yang’s progress toward having a nuclear-tipped missile that could hit the US West Coast. The bill has strong bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress. The legislation requires an investigation and then imposition of sanctions on any person that “knowingly” engages in prohibited activities, ranging from importing weapons technology to “cyber terrorism.” In the Senate version, trading precious metals or coal that is linked to North Korea’s ruling party or armed forces is also forbidden. Marcus Noland, an expert on North Korea at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that measure could implicate state-owned Chinese companies which trade with North Korea. AP

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More than 1 million besieged in Syria

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EW YORK—More than 1 million Syrians are trapped in besieged areas, a new report says in a challenge to the United Nations, which estimates just half that amount and has been accused by some aid groups of underplaying a crisis. The fate of Syria’s besieged is at the heart of peace talks that quickly fell apart last week in Geneva and are set to resume by February 25. Negotiators for the opposition had insisted that the Syrian government stop besieging civilians before talks could truly begin. The new Siege Watch report, issued on Tuesday by the Netherlands-based aid group PAX and the Washington-based Syria Institute, comes a month after images posted online of emaciated children and adults led to an international outcry and rare convoys of aid to a handful of Syrian communities. The town featured in the images, Madaya, was not listed by the UN as a besieged community at the time. Aid workers, who entered last month, reported seeing skeletal people and parents who gave their children sleeping pills to calm their hunger. The Siege Watch report says 1.09 million people are living in 46 besieged communities in Syria, far more than the 18 listed by the UN. It says most are besieged by the Syrian government in the suburbs of Damascus, the capital, and Homs. In the eastern city of Deir el-Zor, about 200,000 people are besieged by both the Islamic State (IS) group and the Syrian government. The report lists two communities besieged by armed opposition groups.

46

Beleaguered communities

“Electricity and running water are usually cut off, and there is limited [if any] access to food, fuel and medical care,” the report says. Deaths have been reported from malnutrition, disease, hypothermia and poisoning while scavenging for food. Some communities have been besieged for months or years. The estimates are based largely on information provided by local contacts in the communities, including local councils, medical workers and citizen journalists. With the spotlight on the besieged, the UN last month raised its estimate by almost 100,000, saying that 486,700 people are affected. That’s still less than some aid groups and others estimate. They argue that the world body’s numbers set the tone for humanitarian response efforts and that more urgency is needed. “Many remain unaware of the extent of the crisis, and the international response has been muted as a

SYRIANS fleeing the conflicts in Azaz region are seen at a temporary accommodation center set up by the group near the Bab al-Salam border gate, Syria, on Friday. The refugees, who fled bombing in Aleppo, were waiting at the Bab al-Salam crossing, opposite the Turkish province of Kilis. IHH VIA AP

result,” the Siege Watch report says. In meetings this week with UN officials and member-states, PAX says it will call for the immediate lifting of sieges as a way to build confidence in the peace talks. Syria Institute Executive Director Valerie Szybala said the new report has not been shared with Syria’s government. The UN says it considers an area besieged if three criteria are met: The area is surrounded by “armed actors,” humanitarian aid cannot regularly enter, and civilians, in-

cluding the sick and wounded, cannot enter and exit. “Of course, differences of opinion do occur,” said Amanda Pitt, a UN humanitarian spokesman, of criticism of the UN’s estimates. The aid group Doctors Without Borders goes well beyond the figure in the Siege Watch report, estimating that 1.9 million Syrians live in besieged areas. Doctors Without Borders said it defines Syria’s besieged areas as ones “that are surrounded by strategic

barriers [military or nonmilitary] that prevent the regular and safe inflow of humanitarian assistance and the regular and safe outflow of civilians, the wounded and the sick.” The UN places an estimated 4.5 million Syrians into a separate category called “hard to reach,” a step below besieged. It defines that as “an area that is not regularly accessible to humanitarian actors for the purpose of sustained humanitarian programming as a result of denial of access.”

Doctors Without Borders said it doesn’t use that distinction, “as the medical consequences for both types of region are similar.” Medical supplies are almost never allowed in, it said, and medical evacuations are rarely allowed out. The aid group has said that since convoys reached Madaya last month, at least 16 people there have died and at least 33 were in danger of dying of malnutrition. The UN now considers the town of 20,000 besieged. AP

Stronger regional coordination can counter Africa extremism Syrian govt achieving gains near Turkish, Jordanian borders T

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MMAN, Jordan—As the Syrian Army pushes toward the Turkish border in the north, the government is also achieving major gains in strategic southern Syria near the Jordanian frontier. Aided by Russian air strikes, Syrian officials have vowed to close off the Turkish and Jordanian borders, long crucial conduits for opposition arms, supplies and fighters entering Syria. On Monday a pair of rebel-controlled towns near Dara, the south’s major city, agreed to a cease-fire with the government as part of a deal that would stop air strikes and allow aid into the towns, according to opposition and pro-government accounts. Meanwhile, pro-government forces in the north continued to overrun opposition-held territory in Aleppo province, which stretches to the Turkish border. The city of Aleppo, like the city of Dara, has long been divided between government and opposition forces. The recent fighting in the Aleppo area has driven more than 30,000 Syrians toward Turkey, with more on the way, aid groups say. But Turkish officials, who already host more than 2 million Syrian refugees, were not allowing the recent arrivals to enter the country. Instead, Turkey said it was providing aid in camps on the Syrian side, just inside the border gate. In Ankara German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as the two sought new ways to reduce the influx of Syrian and other migrants into Europe via Turkey. The German leader is under fierce political pressure at home after more than 1 million asylum-seekers were registered last year in Germany, causing social and economic strains in the heart of Europe. But neither leader offered new solutions to the problem as the numbers fleeing fighting in Syria continued to grow. The government of President Bashar al-Assad has for years pursued truces— known as “reconciliation” deals—in rebelheld zones, with mixed success. Some in the opposition assail the accords as de facto capitulations, but others call them a

means of avoiding further bloodshed while retaining some degree of self-governance. The latest such agreement, with the southern towns of Ibtaa and Daael, will also see the release of detainees. In addition, the accord will allow rebel fighters and gunmen to be in charge of the towns’ security and protection, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a pro-opposition monitoring group based in England. “Regime authorities warned the notables [leaders] during the meeting that if any government forces are targeted by the fighters in the town[s] then government forces will intervene militarily,” the observatory said in a statement. Details of the accord in the two southern towns also appeared in a number of progovernment outlets, including Al-Manar, a Lebanese news broadcaster affiliated with Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militant group and staunch Damascus ally. Videos circulated on social media on Monday purported to show the Syrian flag being raised over public institutions in Ibtaa as part of the deal. Opposition activists, however, reported that the flag was later taken down and burned by those opposed to any agreement with the government. The truce with the two towns gives the Syrian Army effective control of the old Damascus-Dara highway, a vital supply route that had been partially under rebel sway for more than three years. The truce with the two southern towns comes days after government forces retook control of a pair of previously rebelheld southern towns, Atman and Al-Sheikh Maskin, both north of Dara city. The rebel setbacks reflect a wider malaise in their ranks in the south, where, less than six months ago, the opposition seemed poised to wrest control of Dara province and its provincial capital. That offensive was reportedly backed by the Military Operations Command, a secret command center in Jordan staffed by western and Arab intelligence operatives that has provided logistical and arms support to the rebels. But the offensive, spearheaded by a loose coalition of rebel factions named “The Southern Front,” soon floundered. Los Angeles Times/TNS

HIES, Senegal—Violent extremist groups and their affi liates are collaborating more in northern Africa, and regional forces must be built up and supported with deeper intelligence sharing to counter the increasing threat of attacks, the head of the US military’s Special Operations Command Africa said on Monday. Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc spoke on the sidelines of Flintlock, the US military’s annual counterextremism training exercise based this year in Senegal. Monday marked the opening of training of African

forces as ambassadors, generals and troops gathered on an airfield in Th ies, Senegal, holding fl ags that represented the some 1,700 participants from about 30 countries across Africa, and other Western countries. The training comes as the region battles a growing threat from alQaeda-linked extremists and Nigeria’s Islamic extremist group Boko Haram which has pledged support to the Islamic State group . Violent extremist organizations have become more collaborative, sharing tactics and procedures,

Bolduc said. “They have traded ideas and concepts on how to message and present themselves in public, solidifying their ideology and what they stand for. And we have watched that collaboration manifest itself in becoming more effective in north Africa,” he said. Nations have also started to come together to look at how regional cooperation can support countering the threat of the extremists, he said, pointing to the multinational force battling Boko Haram with troops from Chad,

HK activists, police clash over holiday food stalls

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ONG KONG—Hong Kong’s Lunar New Year celebration descended into chaotic scenes as protesters and the police, who fired warning shots into the air, clashed over a street market selling fish balls and other local holiday delicacies, leaving dozens injured and arrested. The violence is the worst in Hong Kong since pro-democracy protests rocked the city in 2014, leaving a growing trust gap between the public and authorities. Activists angered over authorities’ attempts to crack down on the food hawkers in a crowded Kowloon neighborhood held running battles with the police into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Protesters pelted officers with bottles and pieces of trash. Some threw garbage cans, plastic safety barriers and wood from shipping pallets at them. They also set fires on the street. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying told reporters a mob had attacked police officers and journalists, and said the perpetrators would be prosecuted. Police cars and public property were damaged, fires started and

bricks and other objects thrown at police officers, including those already injured and lying on the ground, Leung said. “I believe the public can see for themselves from TV news reports the seriousness of the situation. The [Hong Kong] government strongly condemns such violent acts. The police will apprehend the mobs and bring them to justice,” Leung said. Officials said they were investigating whether the violence had been organized in advance. At one point, a protester tried to tackle a traffic-police officer from behind before both sides rush in to the melee in the middle of a busy street, according to footage shown by local news channel Cable TV. Moments later, another officer appeared to fire two warning shots into the air. Hong Kong police said in a statement that the protesters had ignored their warnings to get off the street and shoved officers, who responded with batons and pepper spray. Acting District Commander Yau Siu-kei said 23 men and one woman were arrested on suspicion of assaulting and obstructing officers, resisting arrest and public dis-

order. The arrested were as young as 17 and as old as 70. Police said 48 officers were hurt by glass and flying objects. Yau said two warning shots were fired. The unrest started when authorities tried to prevent unlicensed street-food sellers from operating on Monday night in Mong Kok, a working-class district of the city. The hawkers have become a local tradition during the Lunar New Year holiday, but this year, authorities tried to remove them. The hawkers were backed by activists who objected to the crackdown over concerns that Hong Kong’s local culture is disappearing as Beijing tightens its hold on the semiautonomous city. The latest scuffles underscore how tensions remain unresolved more than a year after the end of pro-democracy protests that gripped the city. Mong Kok, a popular and densely populated shopping and entertainment district, was one of the neighborhoods where activists occupied streets for about 11 weeks in late 2014, capturing world headlines with their demands for greater electoral freedom. AP

Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon. He warned, however, that the military is not the only solution. Intelligence sharing is vital, but so is working with civil administrations to connect from the ground up to deal with the threat, he said. Gen. Amadou Kane, the chief of staff of Senegal’s armed forces, said the threat of extremism affects all nations. “We can’t know where the threat will next come, so we must then reorganize ourselves,” and make efforts to do that with neighboring countries, he said. AP

IRAQI WOMAN CHARGED WITH ROLE IN U.S. FEMALE HOSTAGE’S DEATH

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ASHINGTON—The wife of a senior Islamic State (IS) leader who was killed in a US raid last year has been charged in federal court with holding American Kayla Mueller hostage and with contributing to the aid worker’s death, the Justice Department said on Monday. Nisreen Assad Ibrahim Bahar, also known as Umm Sayyaf, admitted after her capture last May that she and her husband kept Mueller captive along with several other young female hostages, according to a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) affidavit filed in the case. US officials have said that while in custody, Mueller was repeatedly forced to have sex with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the IS group The criminal complaint, filed by federal prosecutors in Alexandria, Virginia, charges Umm Sayyaf with conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terror organization, resulting in death. The case was brought one year after Mueller was confirmed dead by her family and the Obama administration, though it’s not clear when or if Umm Sayyaf will be brought to the US to stand trial. The 25-year-old Iraqi woman, who was captured last year, is currently in Iraqi custody and facing prosecution there. AP

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US faces weaknesses in coalition against IS

IRAQI soldiers participate in a training exercise with American and Spanish soldiers, which includes live ammunition at Basmaya base, 40 kilometers southeast of Baghdad, Iraq, in January. AP/KARIM KADIM

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ASHINGTON—To doubters of its strategy for defeating the Islamic State (IS), the Obama administration likes to tout its coalition of 66 nations and claim strength in numbers. But a year and a half into the war, some administration officials are acknowledging that this supposed source of strength has its own weaknesses. Defense Secretary Ash Carter offered a glimpse of his own apparent frustration last week when he referred to “our so-called coalition” and suggested the slackers need to step up. “We need everybody, and that’s all the Europeans, the [Persian] Gulf states...Turkey, which is right there

on the border. So there are a lot that need to make more contributions,” he said. Carter is leaving on Tuesday for Brussels, where he will convene a meeting on Thursday of defense chiefs from about two dozen coalition countries, including most North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato)

members, Iraq and the Gulf states. He indicated he will, behind closed doors, share with them details of the US strategy for recapturing the main IS group strongholds in Syria and Iraq. “What I’m going to do is sit down and say, here is the campaign plan .....If you’re thinking World War II newsreel pictures, you think of an arrow going north to take Mosul and another arrow coming south to take Raqqa,” he said last week. And then he will run through a list of military capabilities—“boots on the ground, airplanes in the air,” plus trainers and other support personnel—that will be needed to achieve victory. “And I’m going to say, ‘OK, guys. Let’s match up what is needed to win with what you have, and kind of give everybody the opportunity to make an assignment for themselves,’” he said. “The United States will lead this and we’re determined, but other people have to do their part because civilization has to fight for itself.” A few coalition countries have made promises of increased support in recent days. The Netherlands, which has been carrying out air strikes in Iraq, said on January 29 that it would expand its

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Nations compose the US-led coalition against Islamic State

efforts to Syria. Saudi Arabia indicated last week it could send ground troops into Syria, although it was not clear whether the offer was conditioned on US ground forces participating. Canada announced on Monday that it will quit conducting air strikes in Syria and Iraq by February 22, but will expand its contributions to training Kurdish and other local forces and provide more humanitarian and developmental aid. Canada also will keep two surveillance planes in the region and conduct aerial refueling missions. Over the course of a decade and a half of coalition warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan, US officials have frequently found themselves pleading and cajoling with the Europeans to

contribute more, and they generally have responded with pledges to do just a little bit more. The pattern may be repeated in Brussels. Inevitably it falls to the US military, with greater resources and a longer reach, to carry the biggest burden in countering terrorism. The air campaign in Syria and Iraq, for example, is advertised as a 13-nation undertaking. But of the 10,060 strikes conducted over the past year and a half—6,723 in Iraq and 3,337 in Syria, as of February 1—US warplanes have conducted all but 2,124 of the Iraq hits and all but 208 in Syria. At their low point last August, the allies conducted only two strikes in Syria while the US conducted 210, according to figures provided by the Pentagon. More recently, non-US air strikes have increased as a share of total strikes. The US also is counting on another kind of partnership, one that is central to its strategy for not just defeating the IS group but ensuring it stays defeated. It is trying to empower local armies in both Iraq and Syria by partnering with them for training, equipping and advising— without doing the fighting for them.

Carter wants more European allies to chip in with trainers and other forms of support. This cooperation between local and coalition forces is beginning to pay dividends, especially in Iraq, where US-trained Iraqi security forces recently recaptured the city of Ramadi. Iraqi Kurdish forces, known as the peshmerga, have made even more substantial battlefield gains with a great deal of help from US forces. The Kurdish equation is complicated, however, by sensitivities involving Turkey, a Nato ally that fears a Kurdish insurgency within its own borders. In a report this month for the private Institute for the Study of War, analysts Patrick Martin and Christopher Kozak wrote that the US and its coalition partners may have become over-reliant on the Kurds, and that this threatens to drive Turkey away from deeper cooperation against the Islamic State militants. “Second, the US risks fueling long-term ethnic conflict in both Iraq and Syria due to the relative empowerment of the Kurds at the expense of other local powerbrokers, often Sunni Arabs,” they wrote. AP

Islamic State-linked fighters seizing oil-rich Libya, US officials say

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ASHINGTON—As Islamic State (IS) forces lose ground in Iraq and Syria, fighters loyal to the group have seized territory in oil-rich Libya, levying taxes at gunpoint and creating sanctuaries to launch possible attacks in North Africa and Europe, US officials say. The Pentagon has sent special operations teams to gather intelligence and launched at least one air strike. But the White House so far has resisted calls from some senior aides to escalate the US military role in another Muslim country to counter the potential threat. Spy satellites and reconnaissance drones have shown the militants building fortifications around Surt, on the central Mediterranean coast and on training bases for foreign fighters farther inland, the officials said. A US intelligence estimate last week concluded that IS has attracted more than 5,000 fighters in Libya, double the official estimate last fall, making it the extremist

group’s largest and most potent affiliate outside Syria and Iraq. IS threatens to gain a “stranglehold” in Libya and potential “access to billions of dollars of oil revenue,” Secretary of State John F. Kerry warned, one of several alarms the administration has raised in recent days. He spoke at a conference on Tuesday in Rome, where the US and 22 other nations agreed to support the formation of a unity government in Tripoli, the capital, in a tenuous effort to restore stability and take on the militants. Libya has had no functioning central government since the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) bombing campaign helped a popular uprising to oust ruler Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. It has faced political chaos and a lowgrade civil war nearly ever since, with two rival governments battling for control, and squabbling militias exploiting the power vacuum.

“In the absence of a true government, [militant groups] have grown unchecked,” said a US defense official, who was not authorized to speak publicly. “It’s like Syria all over again.” IS “has a bad habit of growing in places that are ungoverned,” Tina Kaidanow, the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator said last week at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. She cited an urgency at the White House and among its allies to move quickly before the group expands beyond its current foothold, which extends about 100 miles east and west of Surt. “We don’t want to see the growth of [IS] outpace what will be a long-term effort to build out a successful Libyan government,” she said. The group’s rise comes as foreign fighters from Tunisia and elsewhere in Africa have moved to Surt and other strongholds in

Libya, rather than to the war zones in Syria and Iraq, where the militants have suffered several military setbacks in recent months from the US-led coalition. The Pentagon wants to ensure that Libya doesn’t “get on a glide slope” where IS “gathers a piece of territory from which it’s able to tyrannize people and plot operations elsewhere,” Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told reporters on Thursday at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. “That’s the situation we want to avoid in Libya,” he said. Any military intervention probably would be led by France and Italy, the former colonial power. Options include sending troops from Italy to help protect the new government, using US and French advisers to train Libyan counterterrorism forces, and launching air strikes. For now, British and American special operations teams and intelligence services have focused on identifying IS leaders,

assessing their networks and strongholds, and reaching out to local militias willing to fight them, officials said. But intelligence officials say the militias are unreliable, poorly organized and divided by region and tribe, as well as by outside support, the same complex problem that has crippled US attempts to unify opposition groups in Syria. Islamist and Berber militias in the west, assisted by Qatar, for example, have engaged in brutal clashes with more secular forces in the east apparently led by former Qaddafi loyalists and supported by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. IS fighters have attacked oil fields and installations, hobbling a major source of income for the fledgling government. Oil production has fallen in half from a year ago, according to the state-run National Oil Corp. The only known US air strike was in November, when F-15 fighter jets killed a senior IS commander known as Abu Nabil near the

eastern city of Derna. Officials said the Iraqi national narrated a video released last year that showed militants beheading 21 Egyptian workers, all Coptic Christians, in Libya. Some national security experts warn that IS is quietly taking root in Libya much as it did in Syria before the militants’ blitz across Iraq in early 2014, seizing cities, oil fields, military bases and banks. “I think it’s increasingly a national security priority for us to limit the spread of ISIS [Islamic State in Iraq and Syria] in Libya given the expansion that’s been seen recently,” said Ben Fishman, former top National Security Council official on North Africa affairs. “It’s obviously connected to an aggressive move from ISIS central in Syria to take advantage of the disorder in Libya.” Rep. Adam B. Schiff, Democrat-California, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, urged the White House to launch air strikes against the militants’ leaders. TNS

A10 Wednesday, February 10, 2016 • Editor: Angel R. Calso

Opinion BusinessMirror

editorial

Open skies: We have work to do

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HE recent signing by the Philippine government of the 2009 Multilateral Agreement on Air Services that will give airlines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) rights to operate between capital cities in the region is most welcome. As Transportation Secretary Joseph Emilio A. Abaya says, it will “enhance regional trade and investment opportunities for Philippine businesses, as well as provide Filipino individuals better access to job and educational opportunities in the Asean region.” But there is a fly in the ointment. The agreement will allow airlines to fly from their country to a foreign country without the foreign country government’s approval, as well as fly between two foreign countries during flights originating and ending in the carrier’s home country. Such expansion of flying rights over Asean will facilitate the integration of the region. It will also enable Asean travel organizations to market Asean as a single tourist destination. The problem, however, is that as most everyone knows, especially the officials of the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) and the Department of Tourism (DOT), we have only one airport and it is an extremely small one, barely able to accommodate the current volume of traffic, least of all the expanded volumes that the new agreement is expected to bring about. The protocols took years to be signed despite the DOTC’s and the DOT’s preference for early action because other officials were deterred by the inadequacies of our airport facilities. The observation of these officials is accurate and also comical. As reported: “What’s the point in saying ‘we’re open’ only to tell the airplane that is trying to land, ‘sorry, we have no space for you.’” Earlier, officials of the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines showed us their attitude on the matter by expressing wonderment as to why airlines “insist on arriving and departing at the same time.” We know the solutions because they have been discussed publicly ad nauseum: expand and modernize Ninoy Aquino International Airport (Naia) Terminal 3, and open new airports, in particular, Clark Air Base in Pampanga. The debate on what form the expansion of Terminal 3 should take should now be terminated. Bid out existing plans and allow construction work to commence. With respect to Clark Air Base, begin building the infrastructure that will link it to Metro Manila. This action will not only make operating from Clark Air Base attractive to international airlines, but also contribute to the acceleration of development in Central Luzon. There is another reason we must expand and modernize our Metro Manila airport. Right now, Naia Terminal 3 is the ugliest, most decrepit and backward airport in this part of the world, a monumental embarrassment to the whole nation. If we do not remedy this backwardness, we shall be enjoying under the agreement privileges for which we shall be offering nothing in return. We have work to do to reap the benefits of this agreement. We need to save our face to our neighbors and the world.

Efficient collection of contributions Susie G. Bugante

All About Social Security

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N the wake of the presidential veto of the bill seeking to increase by P2,000 the pensions of Social Security System (SSS) pensioners, one of the often-mentioned solution to shore up SSS funds was to improve its collection efficiency. Proponents of the measure claim that SSS collection efficiency is only 38 percent and, therefore, it should exert more effort to collect more in order to have more funds to finance the proposed pension hike.

A closer look at the data shows that SSS collection efficiency is, in fact, 88 percent and not 38 percent as being bandied about. Based on the 2013 Commission on Audit (COA) report, SSS employer delinquency stood at P13.5 billion, which represents the amount that the SSS should have collected from employers for their workers’ contributions. For the same year, contribution collections reached P103 billion, which, when added to the P13.5 billion, comprises the total collectible amount for the year. Collection efficiency is then computed by dividing actual contribution collections by the total collectible amount, resulting in 88 percent. The often-cited collection efficiency of 38 percent is what the SSS considers as the coverage ratio. It is computed as the number of actively paying members at 12 million, over the total covered members at 33

million. The 12 million refers to members who regularly pay their contributions, while the 33 million represents the total SSS membership, which includes workers who paid only once and those who pay contributions intermittently. These nonregularly paying members tend to be under voluntary SSS coverage, such as overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), self-employed workers, or informal-sector workers. According to the World Bank, about 75 percent of the country’s workers come from the informal sector. These types of workers are much harder to reach, and have less capacity to pay their SSS contributions regularly. The question is: How should the SSS performance in collection efficiency be measured? In terms of collection efforts in the formal sector, the SSS has achieved major gains in bringing down employer delinquency from a

total of P325 billion, as cited during the deliberations on the Social Security Condonation Act of 2009, to only P13.5 billion based on the 2013 COA report—showing an improvement of over P311 billion. This data is confirmed by the Department of Labor and Employment’s (DOLE) Labor Laws Compliance System (LLCS). Since the full implementation of the LLCS in 2014, the DOLE has covered a total of 109,826 establishments, of which 98,355 were found compliant with the Social Security law, for an overall compliance rate of 89.6 percent. In the pursuit of strict labor compliance, the SSS and the DOLE formally signed a memorandum of agreement on information sharing in December 2015. The agreement formalizes the partnership between both agencies in fulfilling their respective mandates, especially in ensuring that all employers comply with labor policies and the Social Security law. This interagency collaboration would also help facilitate smoother coordination among SSS and DOLE regional offices in regularly monitoring employer compliance and implementing the appropriate sanctions and penalties for violators, in line with guidelines set by law. But the greater difficulty lies in collecting from SSS members who lack a regular source of income are employed abroad, or working in the informal sector. The SSS has initiated various measures to address this, including expanding the num-

ber of SSS foreign offices catering to OFWs; accreditation of cooperatives and microfinance institutions as SSS collecting agents to reach out to workers in hard-to-reach areas; and subsidy partnerships with various agencies, such as the International Labor Organization, which benefited thousands of emergency workers in typhoon-hit areas. The SSS also launched the AlkanSSSya Program to make payment of monthly contributions less burdensome for self-employed and informal-sector workers, as they needed to set aside only about P10 per day for their SSS savings. The AlkanSSSya Program covers a diverse range of informal-sector workers, such as farmers and fisherfolk, tricycle drivers, market vendors, garbage recyclers, and even inmates engaged in handicraft-making and other livelihood programs during their imprisonment. Despite these structural barriers to collection, the SSS work force remains undeterred and fully committed in carrying out its mission to provide social protection to Filipino workers. For more details on SSS programs, members can drop by the nearest SSS branch, visit the SSS web site (www.sss.gov.ph), or contact the SSS Call Center at 920-6446 to 55 which accepts calls from 7 a.m. on Mondays all the way to 7 a.m. on Saturdays. Susie G. Bugante is the vice president for public affairs and special events of the SSS. Send comments about this column to susiebugante. bmirror@gmail.com.

Clinton and Sanders focus on the wrong percent

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B C R. S | Bloomberg View

N recent years American progressivism has been torn between two competing approaches to reducing inequality. The first focuses on the top 1 percent; the second emphasizes the bottom 10 percent. Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton have been operating within the terms set by Top 1 Percent progressivism. For both the Democratic Party and the country, that’s the wrong focus. For Top 1 Percent progressives, the accumulation of riches at the very top is what gets the juices flowing. They prioritize much higher taxes on topearners, more aggressive regulation of Wall Street, restrictions on the compensation of chief executives and criminal prosecution of those responsible for the financial crisis. Top 1 Percent progressivism emphasizes the idea of fairness—but it’s nevertheless a politics of outrage, animated by at least a trace of envy. It’s as if “millionaires and billionaires” were the principal problem facing America today. Bottom 10 Percent progressives are not enthusiastic about concentrations of wealth. But that’s not what keeps them up at night. Their focus is on deprivation

and lack of opportunity. They’re motivated by empathy for people who are suffering, rather than outrage over unjustified wealth. They want higher floors for living standards, and do not much care about lower ceilings. They don’t see Wall Street as some kind of public enemy. Their defining document is one of the 20th century’s greatest speeches, delivered by Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1944, in which he called for a Second Bill of Rights, including the right to a decent education; the right to adequate medical care and food; and the right to “adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident and unemployment.” To Bottom 10 Percent progressives, new Wall Street reforms, restrictions on CEO compensation and criminal prosecutions of bankers might be good ideas, but they can be a distraction. It’s far more important to enact initiatives that would

help Americans who are struggling— by expanding the earned income tax credit, providing health care for everyone, improving childhood education and increasing Supplemental Nutrition Assistance. (Simplification or removal of occupational licensing requirements for people who want to start a business, such as interior designers, manicurists, and florists, would also help.) Thus, far in the Democratic presidential campaign, disputes between Sanders and Clinton have been dominated by issues like “getting tougher on Wall Street” and raising taxes on the rich. But how, exactly, could that help Americans who are unable to make ends meet? Top 1 Percent progressives purport to have some answers: For one, increasing taxes on the highest earners brings in revenue to spread around. It’s also true too that wealthy people have disproportionate political power. Top 1 Percent progressives think that if they’re made less wealthy, they’ll distort the democratic process less. In reality, however, increasing taxes on the very wealthiest Americans can’t do a whole lot to help those at the bottom. And the right way to reduce the baleful effects of wealth on the political system is through campaign finance reform.

Why, then, have Sanders and Clinton spent so much time arguing over who would be tougher on Wall Street? The most convincing answer is narrowly political: Attack the top 1 percent, and you get enthusiastic applause from a lot of Democrats in the bottom 99 percent. That applause tends to be muted— even among Democrats—when you call for helping the bottom 10 percent. A third strategy would be to emphasize the challenges faced by the many Americans who have managed to avoid being poor, but who have struggled with stagnant wages and mounting bills. There’s a lot that could be done for them, including more generous parental leave and lower college bills. But 1 Percent progressivism gives them very little. Sure, those who want to tax the rich and break up big banks can also support reforms to increase opportunity, reduce economic deprivation and help the middle class. But emphasis matters. Both campaigning and governing require priority-setting and clear-eyed leadership. Sanders and Clinton should stop competing to see who hates Wall Street more —and talk instead about how to provide help and opportunity for the many millions of Americans who urgently need it.

Opinion BusinessMirror

opinion@businessmirror.com.ph

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Unforgotten Internationale Zusammenarbeit and microinsurance Atty. Dennis B. Funa

INSURANCE FORUM

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HE Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) (German Corp. for International Cooperation) is a German public development-aid agency that is at the forefront of microinsurance development in the Philippines through its Regulatory Framework Promotion of Pro-poor Insurance Markets in Asia (RFPI) Program. It is focused on promoting effective insurance coverage for the poor. It has partnered with the Insurance Commission on this program. The RFPI was started in 2013, and is being implemented in several Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Nepal and Vietnam. Previously, the German Technical Cooperation Agency, GIZ’s predecessor, launched the four-year Microinsurance Innovations Program for Social Security (MIPSS, 2009-2012), with a grant of €3 million, to draft a national microinsurance strategy. RFPI resources are available at inclusiveinsuranceasia.com. The GIZ is an entity dedicated to development aid and international development. It is a company owned solely by the German Federal Government through the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Federal Ministry of Finance. Its headquarters are in Bonn and Eschborn, Germany. GIZ was established in 2011, when three German organizations were merged, namely, the Deutscher Entwicklungsdienst, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit and the Internationale Weiterbildung und Entwicklung. GIZ also operates with financing from other financing institutions such as the European Union, the World Bank, the United Nations and other private-sector entities, such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. It operates in about 130 countries. In Germany itself GIZ is in partnership with German government-owned bank Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau. In 2014 its business volume exceeded €2 billion. Its operations are akin to the Australian Agency for International Development and the American USAID. It is a member of the European Network of Implementing Development Agencies. In many parts of the world, GIZ has supported various initiatives, from training 26,000 police officers in Afghanistan to development of coconut fiber in India. From sustainable port development in Indonesia to cooperation with the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the Pacific Asia Travel Association on disaster preparedness for hotels and holiday resorts, called Hotel Resilient Program. In the Philippines it has several projects among them the promotion of insurance coverage for the poor. The RFPI seeks to improve the

regulatory and supervisory framework to promote insurance coverage and insurance access, specifically microinsurance, for the low-income population. In other words, it seeks the financial inclusion of the low-income households in the country. Among the programs included is the Access to Insurance Initiative, using the tools of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors. The program director in the Philippines is Dr. Antonis Malagardis. Today microinsurance provides various forms of insurance protection to around 31 million Filipinos (as of end of 2015), from a figure of 2.9 million in 2009. It generated about P3.81 billion in net premiums written by end of 2014. There are now 63 insurance companies engaged in microinsurance, from a mere nine in 2006. In November 2015 GIZ published the Regulatory Impact Assessment in Microinsurance Philippines, which is a study on the effects of policy and regulation on the development of microinsurance. The study found that a) The participation of insurers in microinsurance has been growing, from 52 in 2012 to 63 in 2014. It also found that microinsurance premiums amount to 1.9 percent of the total premiums; b) Mutual benefit associations engaged in microinsurance have become the dominant players, with a 55-percent share of the total P3.01-billion microinsurance premiums; c) There is a strong participation from the life and nonlife insurance companies, life insurers contributed 37 percent of the total microinsurance premium and nonlife insurers contributed 6 percent, as of end of 2014.

Bloomberg View

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R ESIDENT Barack Obama’s proposal to levy a $10-abarrel tax on oil reminds me of an eternal truth that applies to almost all working humans: Once you know you are on short time, about to be transferred or discharged, a certain puckish insouciance seeps into the performance of your daily duties. Presidential budgets are always more wish list than “To do,” of course. Assumptions are made, hopeful suggestions offered, and then Congress chuckles and says “Good one, chief” before returning to whatever they were doing before. This is especially true when the opposition controls both legislative houses. And it is most very

which they vanished. But at the altar, standing tall was US Sen. John Kerry, telling us, “That’s as far as you go.” After we came to power, Cory met with the Reform the Armed Forces Movement. Among the young officers was a Col. Kapunan, whose face I recognized from the ID I had snatched. He was there that night, waiting in the darkness, to protect Linda Kapunan if something went wrong. Coincidence? Maybe. The Comelec walkout may not have been planned by those who carried it out, but it was part of a larger design that German theologian Wolfgang Pannenberg described as the intervention of God in history, no longer by His own Hand and Person, but through the unwitting acts of the men and women who make history, wittingly or no, like the women of the 1986 Comelec walkout. (And so I described it in Cory’s speeches; but why did I study Pannenberg years before the snap election and the Edsa People Power Revolution?) The Comelec 35 has not been forgotten. Their defiance haunts, like the ghost of electoral indignation, the automated election law I sponsored; which, I was witless not to realize, removes human agency and, therefore, human conscience from computerized elections. Automated elections automate I wonder what—the vote or electoral fraud? In practical terms, we will never know. There is no way to find out. The audit trail is casually treated as meaningless. And there is no way the Comelec will help you to uncover its own fraud.

cap-and-trade and carbon taxes have failed to go anywhere in US national politics: If you pass one, all those angry people will descend on your office, screaming for your head. As a policy matter, if you are going to enact such a tax, the time to do so is probably right now, when oil prices have plummeted. People have already worked to make their cars and homes more energy efficient, in order to cope with almost a decade of soaring prices. The longer oil prices stay low, the more people will tend to switch back to gas-guzzling trucks, longer road trips and less energy-efficient homes. By enacting the tax now, you give people some incentive to stay more efficient at minimal economic cost. But as a political matter, this is still not a good time. After almost

eight years of minimal economic growth, the fall in oil prices has brought some welcome relief to strained household budgets. Many US oil companies are losing money, particularly the shale oil folks, making the workers and local economies that depend upon them anxious. Jacking up the price of gas and home heating oil is going to upset all those people, who will, in turn, do their best to upset any legislators who propose such a thing. Congressional Republicans are certainly not going to stick out their necks for an opposition party president with whom relations have never been warmer than “testy.” The administration has made some gestures toward mitigating this opposition, notably by claiming that the tax will be paid by

oil companies. But this is obvious nonsense. Oil companies currently have few profits from which to pay the tax. Whoever is responsible for filing the paperwork, the cost will be paid by consumers in higher fuel prices, and the administration surely knows this. That hardly matters, however, because this is a daydream proposal in a never-never budget. Its point is to make a moral argument and motivate the environmentalist portion of the Democratic base, which the party would very much like to see at the polls this November. Perhaps, it will force the Democratic nominees to pay fealty to the proposal, as they wend their way through the grueling round of campaign stops, debates and press appearances. What this tax will not do is pass.

Teddy Locsin Jr.

FREE FIRE

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Dennis B. Funa is currently the deputy insurance commissioner for Legal Services of the Insurance Commission. E-mail: dennisfuna@yahoo.com.

Obama’s oil tax is running on empty B M MA

cannot have real elections under a dictatorship (to be sure, the South Korean junta repeatedly conducted clean elections to check out where the opposition areas were to clamp down on them). But when an act of conscience shakes a democracy, it is not from a blow coming from outside or inside, but from a rotting of its moral fiber; democracy is moral or it is worse than dictatorship because it means the triumph of mass ignorance and mass moral turpitude in every case. There is no ignorance or malevolence worse than that of common folk who let themselves be deluded, or who give in to the cheapest human instincts, and by the force of their numbers makes evil prevail with the irresistible force of a seeming moral, though in reality a false certitude. The Comelec walkout group insists that a mere walkout for refreshments—to get over the shock of their discovery of computerized fraud— had turned out into the walkout that toppled a government. They insist that a walk to the

refreshments counter was just given a spin—I suppose by people like myself in the Corazon Aquino camp—that would give the lie to the American insistence that there was cheating on both sides. That’s what Ronald Reagan said to the Filipinos’ dismay—but to my tired sense of satisfaction that I was right again. But it did not look to me, or to the country, like a walkout for refreshments. The grim look on the faces of the Comelec group did not show thirst but rather an iron resolve to have no part of a show staged by an American-backed dictatorship. The spin that we gave it would fling Reagan’s friend Ferdinand Marcos and Nancy Reagan’s friend Imelda Marcos out of power and out of the country. The Comelec walkout group members describe themselves as unwitting tools of history. I believe them. History turns on accidents. But accidents must be well prepared for to make them historical events. And so, in the darkness, as the Comelec girls exited the hall, they were grabbed by men in uniform. Mark Brown and I—alerted to or prescient of what was coming that night had gone to Philippine International Convention Center—jumped on the men, shouting to leave the women alone. I tackled one but only managed to wrench something from his hand, an ID card. Oddly, he didn’t even try to hit me back. Instead, he rushed with a woman in his arms to a line of waiting vehicles. Mark and I grabbed a car. But why was one available? We followed the convoy speeding down the boulevard to Baclaran Church into

EONI ERIKA FAJARDO BERGARA, 18, daughter of Mina Fajardo, is a first-time voter this year. She writes: “My mother was a part of the 1986 Commission on Elections [Comelec] walkout. That may not mean much to many.” Wrong. The 1986 Comelec walkout haunts electoral automation today, a ghost that is made more scary by the thought that this generation of Comelec people will not have the idealism of those in 1986 who were, ironically, trained by dictatorship to value professionalism. Democracy only encourages people to be sloppy in mind and morals. Meoni Erika goes on, “It [the 1986 Comelec walkout] is a historical event that remains humbly in the shadows of everything else that awakened the Filipino people and contributed to the first Edsa revolution.” Wrong again. Far from staying in the shadows, the 1986 Comelec walkout is the elephant in the room of automated elections. The walkout triggered the fast events that led inexorably to the end of one form of the government—dictatorship, even as a walkout this coming May will and should end democracy in our country. When a dictatorship totters by an act of conscience on the part of those who serve it—like the 1986 Comelec workers did because you

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 A11

especially true during the last year of a presidency, when a lonely nation’s eyes turn toward the folks vying to replace you. Even by these standards, however, a $10-a-barrel oil tax is a bold choice. There is something to be said for taxing oil. It is a very regressive tax, of course, and its revenues will tend to falter whenever there is a recession. It is also going to fall most heavily on rural residents and exurban commuters, two groups not noted for their excess cash. On the other hand, it is a difficult tax to evade, which makes it quite efficient to collect. To the extent that it suppresses consumption, it transfers money out of the pockets of a number of unsavory oil-producing nations and into the US Treasury. Oh, and it might make some

contribution to mitigating that global-warming problem a bunch of pointy-headed scientists seem to be worried about. But voters hate oil taxes. They make it more expensive to heat your home and drive your car, things that most voters have to do. And while those costs can be mitigated by, say, buying a smaller home or car, or moving closer to work, most people bought a bigger home and a bigger car because they wanted one. They will not like having to give it up. Moreover, even if you’re willing to downsize, you can’t do that overnight. Especially since making energy more expensive will cause the value of your current oil guzzler to fall, making it harder to sell and get into something daintier without taking a big loss. This is why both

2nd Front Page BusinessMirror

A12 Wednesday, February 10, 2016

www.businessmirror.com.ph

2015 tourism revenues, arrivals at record high

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B L S. M

HE tourism industry surpassed the 5-million tourist-arrivals mark in 2015—the highest ever—paving the way for the creation of 5 million fresh jobs and the posting of $5 billion in tourism receipts.

The country was able to attract 5.36 million international tourists last year, about 11 percent higher than the 4.34 million visitors the year prior. This led to the $5-billion revenue generated by the industry, which contributed to more than 8 percent of the country’s local output. “This is really an achievement for the Philippine tourism industry, as we have reached $5 billion in tourism receipts and created 5 million jobs—both directly and indirectly,” Tourism Promotions Board (TPB) COO Domingo Ramon C. Enerio III said in a news conference on Tuesday. Based on data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization, Asia was able to collectively grow its tourism industry by 5 percent, with a total of 277 million visitors last year. This means that the local tourism sector grew faster

5-5-5 The tourism industry recorded over 5 million tourist arrivals, 5 million fresh jobs and $5 billion in revenues in 2015

than the region. Given this development, Enerio said his group is bullish that the sector will be able to attract about 6 million international visitors this year. “It’s a tall task, and we will need help. We are seeing that the growth

THE world’s travelers, tourists and balikbayan alike may now enjoy fast and reliable telecommunications services while in the country with Globe Telecoms, which has partnered with the Tourism Promotions Board (TPB) in offering a travel-friendly SIM to help make their Philippine experience much more enjoyable. At left is Nikko Acosta, Globe senior vice president for International Business Group, and Domingo Ramon C. Enerio III, TPB COO, on Tuesday when the partnership was formalized.

in Philippine tourism is being spurred by increased awareness, from different types of media,” he said. “We are confident that we can go beyond 2016.” The tourism industry recently launched its Visit the Philippines Again 2016 campaign, which is a retail-based campaign to drive urgency and excitement among

foreign travelers to visit the Philippines and return “for more fun, friendship, feel-good adventures and fabulous memories to cherish in 2016.” WWW W W W “We would like to continue on with this so that people within the country and all over the world know the beauty of our country,” Enerio said. “What we want to see is an influx of repeat visitors. Tourism needs the help and support of everybody.” In line with this, the TPB renewed its partnership with local mobile services provider Globe Tele-

com Inc. to further entice foreigners to visit the country anew. With the partnership, Globe will once again offer its Globe Traveler SIM to millions of tourists and returning overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) for affordable and worryfree connectivity during their stay in the country. Globe is TPB’s first Philippine telco partner to offer affordable communication services to millions of foreign tourists and OFWs returning to the country through the Globe Traveler SIM, a local prepaid SIM that offers affordable lo-

cal rates for mobile data, calls and SMS services. “We are privileged to once again partner with the TPB this year to help boost the travel experience with affordable call, text and data services, enabling them to stay in touch, as well as share the beauty of the Philippines to the rest of the world through social media. With Globe, we ensure that even travelers get to live and embrace their digital lifestyle as their connectivity partner while in the country,” said Nikko Acosta, senior vice president for International Business Group at Globe. With the Globe Traveler SIM, users can receive calls and texts from abroad for free and cut costs on mobile data by subscribing to TravelSurf, which allows them to surf the Internet on mobile for an affordable rate of $11 for seven days, or $23 for 30 days, giving them access to e-mails, socialnetworking sites, apps and travel blogs, and reviews for a worry-free stay in the Philippines. Users can also call abroad for as low as $0.40 per minute. Getting a local SIM will afford the user a more cost-efficient way to connect than using an international number which charges international call, text and browsing rates. Globe was able to hit the 80,000-subscriber mark for the Traveler SIM alone in 2015. “We want to double our base of subscribers. We want to increase our base,” Acosta said. “We earned close to more than P220 million in 2015. Hopefully, the usage of the consumers doens’t change.”

PIDS study prescribes expanded coverage of govt’s loan program for college students B C U. O

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O help more young Filipinos obtain a college degree, the Commission on Higher Education (CHED) should improve student loans, according to a study released by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS). In a PIDS discussion paper, former National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) Director General Dante B. Canlas said many Filipinos fail to enroll in college because of financial constraints. “It is seen that the income gap between college and high-school graduates has been widening as a result largely of increasing labor-market demand for skills,” Canlas said. “Investment in college education is, thus, a worthy undertaking. But since households finance college education out of their own pockets, in the absence of credit markets for higher education, only the ones with initial wealth endowments can afford college education,” he added. Canlas said student loans can encourage students to be more diligent in their studies and conscious about looking for quality jobs that will enable them to repay their loans. The former Neda chief said the CHED must lead the legislation of a national loan program for student. He said a grant mechanism for state universities and colleges (SUCs) must be built into the program. Canlas said if SUCs are able to institute loan programs with minimal loan defaults, these SUCs must be rewarded with more grants. However, if some SUCs incur large loan defaults, the eligibility of the SUCs for the loan program will be withdrawn or suspended. Further, Canlas said the national government can make student loans admissible as tax credit in terms of paying income taxes. “The government has a warranted role to play amid absent markets

The government has a warranted role to play amid absent markets for collegeeducation loans. Some needs are not met, with foregone human welfare.”—Canlas for college-education loans. Some needs are not met, with foregone human welfare,” Canlas said. Apart from loans, Canlas said the CHED can also help determine the budget allocations for SUCs per region and set content standards in core courses and subjects. He added that the CHED can also devise standardized tests for determining compliance with content standards of both public and private higher-education institutions (HEIs). Citing data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), Canlas said Filipinos with college degrees earn better than those who only finished their secondary or primary education. PSA data showed, Canlas said, that in food manufacturing, the monthly wage of food technologists is about twice that of unskilled workers. Canlas added that in wholesale and retail trade, the wage ratio for professionals to unskilled workers is more than twice. In computer programming, he added, the wage ratio for electronics engineers to unskilled is about four to seven times. “In several occupation groups, the wage of the top group is at least twice that of the unskilled workers’ wage,” Canlas said.

Too early to protest TF hike

IN a related development, CHED Chairman Patricia B. Licuanan, in

response to “premature protests” staged by students regarding the rising costs of higher education in the country, clarified in a statement that “it is too early in the year to be able to determine the number of HEIs that will increase tuition and/or other school fees.” According to Licuanan, HEIs have until end of February to comply with the consultation process as stipulated in the CHED’s guidelines governing tuition and other school fees. The HEIs are given until April 1 to submit duly notarized documentary requirements to their CHED regional office should they decide to increase fees. “Only then can realistic numbers be determined,” Licuanan said. Licuanan also assured that the CHED will carefully assess the proposed increases, ensuring that colleges and universities will comply with the guidelines before enforcing higher tuition fees. “The CHED will ensure that HEIs meet the guidelines provided by law and adhere strictly to requirements that seek to make tuition increases transparent, reasonable and affordable,” she stressed. Earlier, the Kabataan Party-list and the National Union of Students of the Philippines claimed about 400 colleges and universities are planning to increase tuition for the academic year 20162017. With PNA