The Greek vote and the E.U. miscalculation
Greece ballout proposal Greece has proposed tax hikes, spending cuts and pension reforms to fund a new three-year, 53.5 billion euro bailout package to save the nation from bankruptcy. Here are some main points:
Greek referendum results
I
TAX REFORM
61.31%
n a result that should surprise no one, the Greeks voted to reject European demands for additional austerity measures as the price for providing funds to allow Greek banks to operate. There are three reasons this should have been no surprise. GlobalEye»C3
• Tax increase of 23% on restaurants and catering. • Scrapping 30% tax break for Greece’s wealthiest islands. Only the most remote islands will get to keep the breaks.
FISCAL REFORM • Military spending will be slashed by 100 million euros this year and double that in 2016. • Corporate tax will increase from 26 to 28 percent. • Shipping industry will have tonnage tax increase. • A luxury tax of 13% for yachts over 5 meters
PENSION REFORM • Standardizing the retirement age to 67 by 2022 — except for those performing “arduous jobs” and mothers raising kids with a disability. • Supplementary pension funds will be financed by employees’ own contributions. • Phase-out solidarity grant for pensioners by 2019
How How Greeks Greeks voted voted in referendum in referendum on on austerity austerity measures. measures.
Registered voters
9,858,508 Turnout
38.69%
NO
63%
YES
Source: Ministry of Interior, Graphic: TNS
Source: AP, BBC Graphic: Staff Tribune News service
three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012
U.N. Media Award 2008
BusinessMirror
www.businessmirror.com.ph
A broader look at today’s business
n Sunday, July 12, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 276
Govt, Metro Pacific sign Calax contract By Lorenz S. Marasigan
M
ETRO Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC) may now start the construction of the CaviteLaguna Expressway, as it signed the concession agreement with the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) late Friday. Signing of the 35-year contract also means that MPCALA Holdings Inc. has already remitted 20 percent, or P5.4 billion, of its P27.3billion concession fee to the government.
The balance of the premium payment is payable over a period of nine years from the signing of the contract. The tollways unit of Metro Pacific won the contract during its rebidding.
The rebidding delayed the implementation of the project by more than a year. MPIC offered P27.3 billion, more than the P22.2billion premium offer of San Miguel Corp.’s Optimal Infrastructure Development Inc. MPIC’s offer is the highest single premium that the government has received from a public tender, thus far. It was the second time that the government tendered the deal. The first one, although successful, was voided by President Aquino. Team Orion of Ayala Corp. and Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. topped the original auction, with an P11.6-billion offer on top of the project cost. MPIC trailed behind by a hairline difference. The rebidding was done to accommodate the petition of San Miguel, which allegedly See “Calax,” A2
Peso seen to remain weak vs US dollar By Bianca Cuaresma
T
HE local currency is poised to maintain its relative weakness against the dollar up until 2017, as the United States’ recovery gathers pace, an international credit watcher said. In its most recent review on Asia-Pacific growth, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Ratings said that the peso is likely to end the year clinging to the last thread of the 44 territory at 44.9 to a dollar on average for 2015, based on their baseline scenario. However, if unforeseen developments in the local and
global arena happen, S&P has laid a downside forecast of up to 46 to a dollar—meaning the peso could reach that level, depending on the gravity of negative sentiment on the local currency; and an upside forecast of 44.5 to a dollar, which means that the peso can reach that level against the greenback, depending on the gravity of positive sentiment on the Philippines owing to possible developments in the coming months. For next year, the peso is seen to end the year at 45.2 to a dollar and for 2017, the peso will likely hit 45.1 to a dollar, according to the major creditratings institution. Its forecast on the movement of the peso mirrors largely the movement across the Asia Pacific.
PESO exchange rates n US 45.1700
At present, the local currency trades at 45.125 to a dollar in its latest closing value, with an average traded volume during the day at $456.9 million. Likewise, data compiled by the BusinessMirror showed that the average value of the peso from the first trading day of the year up to July 10 is at around 44.58 to a dollar, which means that the peso still has room to weaken in the coming months. S&P further said that the US economy will continue to grow in the coming months and recover with the backdrop of a normalization in its own interest rates—which will largely dictate movements in other Asia-Pacific countries. The future of China is also seen See “Peso,” A2
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Fed’s Yellen maintains outlook for first rate increase this year
week ahead
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW n Previous week: The peso still dwelled in the 45 territory during the week and averaged slightly weaker during the week at 45.154 to a dollar, from the pervious week’s 45.113 to a dollar. The peso hit 45.1 to a dollar on Monday’s trade, which fell further to hit 45.175 to a dollar on Tuesday. The peso then hit 45.16 to a dollar on Wednesday and 45.21 to a dollar on Thursday, and ended the week at 45.125 to a dollar. The total traded volume was at $2.411 billion. n Week ahead: Markets are still to remain cautious in the coming week, after developments on the global front swayed the peso—particularly the crisis in Greece. Players are also seen to watch local data for fresher leads, as traders expect foreign exchange to range sideways in the week.
OFW remittances (May) July 15 Wednesday
n April remittances: The growth of cash sent by Filipino migrant workers normalized in April this year after posting volatile expansion rates in the first three months of 2015, the Bangko Sentral reported. Data from the central bank released last week showed that the growth of overseas Filipino workers’ remittances hit 5.1 percent in April this year—expanding from the $2.128-billion remittances sent home in See “Outlook,” A2
F YELLEN
AP
ederal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking after weeks of financial-market turmoil over China and Greece, maintained her call for an interest-rate increase this year as the US economy improves. “I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy,” Yellen said in her first public remarks since the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Yellen added a note of caution, saying that “the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated developments could delay or accelerate this first step.” In her only mention of Greece in a 14-page speech delivered on Friday in Cleveland, she identified
that nation’s debt crisis as one cause of uncertainty. Yellen, 68, is moving cautiously toward the first rate increase in almost a decade, as the economic expansion enters its seventh year and unemployment falls. In a generally upbeat assessment of the economy, though, she said the job market “still has not fully recovered.” “Given the level of market consternation surrounding Greece, Yellen could have been much, much more dovish,” said Jacob Oubina, senior US economist at RBC Capital See “Yellen,” A2
n japan 0.3724 n UK 69.5076 n HK 5.8276 n CHINA 7.2752 n singapore 33.4692 n australia 33.5937 n EU 49.8315 n SAUDI arabia 12.0453 Source: BSP (10 July 2015)