BusinessMirror March 8, 2015

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THREE-TIME ROTARY CLUB OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDEE 2006, 2010, 2012

U.N. MEDIA AWARD 2008

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

www.businessmirror.com.ph

n

Sunday, March 8, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 150

P.  |     | 7 DAYS A WEEK

Intl banks have mixed views on BSP move to cut inflation TREASURIES FALL AS JOBS GAINS RAISE ODDS FOR FED RATE HIKE I B B C

WEEk AhEAD

ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW

Foreign exchange

n Previous week: The local currency was largely unchanged in the previous week, trading at the floor of the 44 territory in the span of five trading days. In particular, the peso opened trade at 44.09 to a dollar on Monday to slightly appreciate at 44.06 against the US dollar on Tuesday. The peso then moved sideways to hit 44.1 to a dollar on Wednesday and further decelerate on Thursday at 44.125 to a dollar and corrected back to 44.09 against the US dollar on Friday. The total traded volume was at $2.28 billion, lower than the previous week’s volume at $3.3 billion. n Week ahead: Bank research indicates foreign data that will be released in the week ahead. As such, liquidity data in the euro zone will likely dictate the flow of the local currency in the year ahead. There are no other local economic indicator data due for release in the week ahead. Bianca Cuaresma

NTERNATIONAL banks shared mixed views on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) potential policy move in response to the slightly higher, but still relatively tame, inflation rate in February this year.

In separate research notes, Barclays and JPMorgan both said that the February inflation, at 2.5 percent, was in line with their own market expectations. However, JPMorgan is skewed to predicting that the BSP will likely lower its rates, while Barclays said it is maintaining its forecast of a hike in the central bank’s overnight policy rates within this year. In particular, economists in Barclays Research said that, while the BSP appears to remain comfortable with its current monetary-

policy stance, they still see a policyrate hike taking place in the fourth quarter of this year. The forecast was unchanged from their earlier projections, taking into consideration the BSP’s adjustment of its own rates to the expected normalization of monetary policy in the US. Barclays also noted that, while inflation remained relatively tame, at 2.5 percent compared to the 2.4 percent seen in the previous month, core inflation—or the measure of inflation without the volatile S “I,” A

INCREASE IN JAPANESE ASSISTANCE TO PHL EXPECTED

T

B L S. M

HE amount of Japanese assistance coming into the Philippines may still increase in the coming years, despite Tokyo’s recent amendment to its policy on providing aid to developing countries. Tokyo will continue to provide assistance to Manila, especially in development areas that are in dire need of aid, even as Japan’s official development assistance (ODA) program was recently changed into official development cooperation, as the Japanese government revised its policy from pure assistance to a two-way relationship. This was the assurance of the Japanese Embassy to Manila, which said that the change in the charter will not immediately affect the direct assistance to the Philippines, as it still requires financial aid to effect inclusive growth. S “A,” A

PHL infrastructure devt lags behind neighbors–BPI I NFRASTRUCTURE development in the country lags behind the rest of the Southeast Asian region. Quoting the World Economic Forum 2014 report, the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) said that, despite efforts to shore up the lingering deficiency through government expenditure and public-private partnership (PPP),

the overall rating of Philippine infrastructure development remains one of the lowest in the region. “In a year where government spending was expected to bolster the overall growth print, as the nation rebuilt storm-ravaged areas and shored up outdated infrastructure, national government expenditure failed to deliver, with the government deficit a

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 44.1590

mere 0.9 percent of GDP [gross domestic product] against the 2.2-percent target,” BPI said. It added that the muchtrumpeted flagship PPP Program was also hardly able to get off the ground, with only a handful of projects moving into implementation stage and several others mired in legal woes. S “I,” A

SPECIALIST Meric Greenbaum works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday. US stocks and bonds fell sharply, as a strong jobs report led investors to anticipate higher US interest rates. AP/RICHARD DREW

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B D K  A S | Bloomberg

HE Treasury market is signaling the latest jump in US employment will leave the Federal Reserve (the Fed) little excuse not to raise interest rates this year. Jobless 10 ANNUAL 8 5.5% rate 6 Percent of 4 civilian labor 2 force that 0 is unemployed, ’04 by month, seasonally adjusted:

6.2% ’14

5.5%

10 10 88 66 44 22 00

February ’14

February ’15

Graphic: TNS Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Yields on two-year notes, most sensitive to changes in expectations for central-bank policy, climbed to the highest level this year, after a government report showed the economy gained more jobs than forecast in February and the unemployment rate dropped to an almost seven-year low. Futures showed the odds of a rate increase in September climbed to 60 percent, from 49 percent on Thursday. “History suggests it’s not inflation expectations that move bond yields over the short run, it’s the expectation of what the Fed is going to do,” said James Kochan, chief fixed-income strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management Llc. in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. “We’re building in an expectation that rates are going up.” The central bank has kept its target for overnight loans between banks in a range of 0 percent to 0.25 percent since December 2008 to support the economy. It last raised the rate in 2006. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes rose to their highest level this year on Friday, climbing 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 2.24 percent at 5 p.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. They bottomed out at 1.64 percent on January 30, the lowest since May 2013. Two-year note yields climbed as much as nine basis points to 0.73 percent, the highest level since December 29. C  A

n JAPAN 0.3676 n UK 67.2939 n HK 5.6948 n CHINA 7.0472 n SINGAPORE 32.2140 n AUSTRALIA 34.5505 n EU 48.6985 n SAUDI ARABIA 11.7754 Source: BSP (6 March 2015)


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