Business24 Newspaper (May 18, 2020).

EDITION B24 | 45

MONDAY MAY 18, 2020

THEBUSINESS24ONLINE.NET

BoG data show initial scale of pandemic shock Absa, Ecobank biggest earners in first quarter profits MORE ON PAGE 3

BY NII ANNERQUAYE ABBEY

The Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) latest data on the economy has given a first-time indication of the magnitude of the damage the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked on the economy so far.

The central bank’s composite index of economic activity (CIEA) revealed a rare contraction in economic activity in March—a development which underscores fears that economic growth may be headed for its worst performance in almost four decades.

The bank’s summary of macroeconomic and financial data released last week showed that the CIEA recorded a negative 2.2 percent growth in March, in sharp contrast to the 7.1 percent growth recorded in February and the 5.6 percent expansion in March 2019.

The contraction in economic activity appears to vindicate assertions by the government that a continuous restriction of movement would

Unleash spectrum potential to pave the way to a digital Ghana MORE ON PAGE 9

have had devastating consequences on the economy.

Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta has said economic growth could sink to as low as 1.5 percent this year as a result of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

The BoG data come on the back of a record slump in Ghana’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to an all-time low of 31.7 in April, from 41.4 in March. The index, published by Stanbic Bank, sank further below the critical 50-threshold that separates improvement in local business conditions from deterioration.

Cascading impact According to the central bank, there was a decline in construction activity, tourism, and domestic tax payments as of March compared to the same period last year.

Dismantling the retirement age architecture MORE ON PAGE 15

MORE ON PAGE 2

‘We need to be digitally ready for AfCFTA’ MORE ON PAGE 3

Developing real estate markets in Sub-Sahara Africa: The fundamentals MORE ON PAGE 17

ECONOMIC INDICATORS *EXCHANGE RATE (INT. RATE)

USD$1 =GH¢5.6896*

EXCHANGE RATE (BANK RATE)

USD$1 =GH¢5.6127.*

*POLICY RATE

14.5%*

GHANA REFERENCE RATE

15.12%

OVERALL FISCAL DEFICIT

6.6 % OF GDP

PROJECTED GDP GROWTH RATE PRIMARY BALANCE.

1.5% -1.1% OF GDP

AVERAGE PETROL & DIESEL PRICE:

GHc 5.13*

INTERNATIONAL MARKET BRENT CRUDE $/BARREL

32.50

NATURAL GAS $/MILLION BTUS

1.65

GOLD $/TROY OUNCE

1,743.67

CORN $/BUSHEL

329.50

COCOA $/METRIC TON

2,399

COFFEE $/POUND:

+5.70 ($108.30)

COPPER USD/T OZ.

220.15

SILVER $/TROY OUNCE:

17.07

Copyright @ 2020 Business24 Limited.

All Rights Reserved.

Tel: +233 030 296 5297 editor@thebsuiness24online.net

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EDITORIAL

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Wash your hands 2

Cover your cough 3

AfCFTA is big business Over the years, we have often complained about low intra-Africa trade and how economies on the continent trade more with Europe, Asia and North America than amongst fellow Africa Union (AU) member states.

Intra-African trade is currently under 20 percent. Trade rose to 16 per cent in 2018 from 5 percent in 1980, it remains low compared to intra-regional trade in Europe and Asia.

A recent African Trade Report 2019 notes that the European Union (EU) remained Africa’s main continental trading partner in 2018 – accounting for 29.8 per cent of total trade. African trade with the South also grew significantly over the last decade to account for more than 35 per cent of the continent’s total trade in 2018.

China and India remains Africa’s first and second single largest trading partners, accounting for over 21 per cent of total African trade in 2018.

To change the narrative, the Africa

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Editorial Team Dominic Andoh: Editor Eugene Kwabena Davis (Head of Parliamentary Business & Commodities) Benson Afful (Head of Energy & Education) Patrick Paintsil (Head of Maritime & Banking) Nii Annerquaye Abbey (Online Editor) Marketing Alexander Lartey Agyemang (Business Development Manager) Ruth Fosua Tetteh (Dept. Business Development Manager) Gifty Mensah (Marketing Manager) Irene Mottey (Sales Manager) Edna Eyram Swatson (Special Projects Manager ) Events Evelyn Kanyoke (Snr. Events Consultant) Finance/Administration Joseph Ackon Bissue (Accountant)

“We will be digitally ready, because if you look at the rectifications we are putting in place from education to health, everything is being done in a much smarter way. We have had engagements with other stakeholders [on AfCFTA] to know the requirements expected of us.”

He said COVID-19 has changed lots of things, and with the advent of technology, economies can harness the benefits to turn things around by way of intra-Africa trade, collaboration and building synergies.

We back this call and urge duty bearers to ensure that the country is well prepared to take full advantage of the continentwide trade agreement and create industrial giants while growing the non-traditional export sector.

BoG data show initial scale of pandemic shock (…CONTINUED FROM COVER )

Wear a mask

Continental Free Trade Area was conceived. With a July 1, commence date, we must ready ourselves to take full advantage of the opportunities that the never-before-seen intraAfrica trade agreement offers.

Government, has, therefore, been urged to ensure that all the required ICT infrastructure and resources are put in place to equip the country for the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement after the coronavirus pandemic.

Speaking to Business 24 in an exclusive interview, Deputy DirectorGeneral of the National Information Technology Agency (NITA), Kweku Kyei Ofori, noted that: “Digitising the economy can help us leapfrog all other businesses that are around.

If we are prepared and ready [for AfCFTA], and we get our structures in place, it affords us an opportunity to improve our economy.”

Exports as of March stood at US$3.9bn, down from the US$4bn recorded in the first quarter of 2019. This decline was the result of a US$180m disparity in oil exports between the two periods after crude oil prices crashed in March this year.

In terms of imports, the data indicated that as at the end of March, the total amount spent lagged behind the 2019 figures.

While the collapse in crude oil prices meant that the country could import the same quantity of oil for less, non-oil imports also declined compared to last year’s.

The total non-oil imports in the first quarter of 2019 stood at US$2.7bn, but this declined by 7.3 percent to US$2.5bn between January-March 2020.

Overall, total imports in the first three months of 2020 was US$3bn, while that of last year was US$3.4bn.

Slump in financial and capital inflows The fallout of the pandemic has taken a toll on financial and capital inflows, with the data confirming projections that foreign direct investment, remittances, and portfolio inflows are suffering from serious shortfalls.

The capital and financial account balance fell from US$2.7bn in the first quarter of 2019 to US$1.4bn in JanuaryMarch this year—reflecting possibly weak FDI inflows as well as outflows from

foreign investors in domestic assets.

Even before the full impact of the pandemic is felt, government’s revenue for the first three months of 2020 was slightly lower—2.7 percent of GDP—than what it collected—3 percent of GDP—within the same period last year.

On the contrary, government spending, driven by pandemicinduced outlays, increased to 6.1 percent of GDP from 4.1 percent in March 2019.

The gap between revenue and expenditure is expected to worsen as government incurs additional unplanned expenditure as a result of the pandemic coupled with revenue shortfalls.

With the government facing tight financing conditions both at home and abroad, the central bank last week released GH¢5.5bn to the central government in emergency lending.

“Under the Bank of Ghana’s Asset Purchase Programme, the bank has purchased a Government of Ghana COVID-19 relief bond with a face value of GH¢5.5bn at the monetary policy rate with a 10-year tenor and a [repayment] moratorium of two years (principal and interest),” said central bank governor Dr. Ernest Addison at Friday’s monetary policy press briefing.

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Absa, Ecobank biggest earners in first quarter profits A Business24 analysis of data on banks’ profitability in the first quarter of the year shows the top-10 banks bagged a combined GH¢843m in after-tax earnings.

Absa Ghana was the biggest earner with GH¢130m in profit for the period, followed by Ecobank Ghana with GH¢118m, Standard Chartered with GH¢109m, GCB Bank with GH¢92m, and Stanbic with GH¢73m.

These big-five earners commanded GH¢522m in post-tax profits for the period.

Other banks making up the top10 earners were Access Bank with GH¢68m; Guaranty Trust Bank with GH¢67m; Fidelity Bank with GH¢68m; Zenith Bank with GH¢63m; and UBA Ghana with GH¢55m.

ABSA’s strong profit growth was on the back of a 23 percent growth in interest income, driven mainly by the growth in the bank’s earning assets from GH¢7.98bn in the first quarter of 2019 to GH¢9.53bn in March 2020.

Ecobank Ghana saw its gross earnings increase by 34 percent from GH¢355m to GH¢476m, spurred by a 44 percent growth in

interest income from GH¢246.8m in the first quarter of 2019 to GH¢355m in the first quarter of 2020.

Apart from profit, the top-10 banks collectively mobilised GH¢55bn in deposits from customers, with Ecobank and GCB recording the highest figures of GH¢10bn and GH¢9.5bn respectively.

The figure was a 22 percent increase over the GH¢45bn that was mobilised by the same banks in the same period of 2019.

The data also showed that the bigfive earners dished out the most loans to their clients and customers, amounting to GH¢18.4bn as at March 2020.

The remarkable performance of these banks, which likely represents an industry-wide trend, shows that the country’s financial sector could brave the curse of the coronavirus pandemic, unlike other critical sectors currently on their knees as the pandemic’s ramifications continue to be felt.

The data further suggest that banks’ recovery from the financial sector clean-up continued into the first three months of the year

Mrs. Abena Osei-Poku, Managing Director of Absa Ghana

despite Covid-19 showing up in the last month of the quarter.

An earlier analysis by Business24 of banks’ overall performance for the year 2019 had shown significant growth in all the key indicators, signalling the robustness and resilience of an industry that has undergone extensive “cleansing”.

According to the Bank of Ghana in its

monetary policy press statement on May 15, although the pandemic has curbed loan growth and increased loan losses, “the latest stress tests conducted in April 2020 suggest that banks are strong and resilient and are well-positioned to withstand mild to moderate liquidity and credit shocks on the basis of strong capital buffers and high liquidity positions.”

‘We need to be digitally ready for AfCFTA’

BY EUGENE DAVIS The government has been urged to ensure that all the required ICT infrastructure and resources are put in place to equip the country for the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement after the coronavirus pandemic.

Implementation of the free trade agreement was expected to commence on July 1 this year; however, due to the disruptions occasioned by the coronavirus pandemic, it is likely to be deferred to next year.

Ghana was selected to host the secretariat of AfCFTA, giving the country a pivotal role in overseeing the implementation of the agreement. The country has committed US$10m for the operationalisation of the secretariat.

To this end, the Deputy DirectorGeneral of the National Information Technology Agency (NITA), Kweku Kyei Ofori, has encouraged government to leverage the benefits ICT presents and ensure that the economy is ready digitally to make the implementation of AfCFTA efficient and effective as well as boost intra-Africa trade.

Kweku Kyei Ofori says Ghana’s data centre is up and running, which will be a plus when AfCFTA comes around.

Speaking to Business 24 in an exclusive interview, he said: “Digitising the economy can help us leapfrog all other businesses that are around. If we are prepared and ready [for AfCFTA], and we get our structures in place, it affords us an opportunity to improve our economy.”

He added that he was optimistic about Ghana’s digitisation prospects.

“We will be digitally ready, because if you look at the rectifications we are putting in place from education to health, everything is being done in a much smarter way. We have had engagements with other stakeholders [on AfCFTA] to know the requirements expected of us.”

He said COVID-19 has changed lots of things, and with the advent of technology, economies can

harness the benefits to turn things around by way of intra-Africa trade, collaboration and building synergies.

Explaining the importance of technology to regional integration, he argued that a comprehensive database system will help African countries to put together sizeable economic stimulus packages to help alleviate the economic devastation arising from the pandemic.

AfCFTA provides the opportunity for Africa to create the world’s largest free trade area, with the potential to unite 1.3bn people in a US$2.5 trillion economic bloc and usher in a new era of development. The main objectives of AfCFTA are to create a continental market for goods and services, with free movement of people and capital, and pave the way for creating a customs union.

It will also grow intra-African trade through better harmonisation and coordination of trade liberalisation across the continent. AfCFTA is further expected to enhance competitiveness at the industry and enterprise level through exploitation of opportunities for scale production, continental market access, and better reallocation of resources.

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Vivo Energy and retailers install water storage facilities at lorry parks and markets Vivo Energy Ghana, the Shell Licensee, in partnership with its retailers, have installed three water storage tanks and handwashing facilities at the Koforidua Central market and Lorry Parks to ensure regular supply of water for handwashing towards the fight against COVID-19 in the Eastern region.

The initiative forms part of Vivo Energy Ghana’s Retailer Sustainability Programme, launched to support the fight against COVID-19 in various retail communities.

Other items donated to the central market and lorry parks included boxes of hand washing soaps, tissue paper, nose masks, hand sanitizers and four foot-operated handwashing facility to encourage regular handwashing in these densely populated areas. The team also donated infrared temperature guns to the New Juabeng Municipal Assembly.

The Retailer Sustainability Programme forms part of Vivo Energy Ghana’s comprehensive programme on COVID-19 prevention being rolled-out to complement the government’s efforts in combating

the virus from Ghana and ensuring the decentralization of support to local communities.

The Honourable Municipal Chief Executive of New Juaben South Assembly, Mr. Isaac Appaw-Gyasi, who cut the tape to inaugurate the facilities, expressed his appreciation to Vivo Energy Ghana and its retailers for the timely intervention at the markets and lorry parks to combat corona virus from Koforidua and its environs.

“The gesture is timely and I must commend Vivo Energy Ghana and its retailers who operate under the Shell brand for the intervention. I am very hopeful that this support will help curb the spread of the virus among residents and commuters who use the lorry parks. I want to urge everyone to use the facilities anytime they visit these places to reduce the cases in the region”, he advised.

The Market Queen of the Koforidua Central Market, Nana Ama Bonsu said the installation of the water storage tanks would help solve the water shortage at the market, especially during this period where water is an essential element in the prevention of COVID-19.

For his part, the Eastern Regional Chairman of the Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU), Mr. Johnson Kyereh, lauded Vivo Energy for the kind gesture and charged his members to continue to patronise Shell’s quality fuels and engine oils to support the company’s initiative.

Commenting on the programme, the Managing Director of Vivo

Energy Ghana, Mr. Ben Hassan Ouattara, reiterated the company’s commitment to supporting the government’s efforts against the virus to ultimately bring life to normal.

“As an energy company, we care about our people, customers and communities and believe that the Vivo Energy Retailer Sustainability Programme will help to reach, protect and minimize the impact of this life-threatening virus on people, especially those in our rural communities”, he said.

He further urged the beneficiaries to use the items for its intended purpose while observing the safety protocols and the President’s directives on social distancing and wearing of nose masks.

Since the launch of the Retailer Sustainability Programme, various government institutions have benefitted from it. They include the National Commission for Civic Education and Effiankwanta Regional Hospital in the Western Regional, Tamale Teaching Hospital in the Northern Region, Kenyasi Health Centre and Ahinsan Camp Prison in the Ashanti Region.

TBEA supports GRIDCo with PPEs worth GH¢100,000 Chinese power company TBEA has donated Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) worth GH¢100,000 to the Ghana Grid Company (GRIDCo) as part of measures to support the power transmitter in fighting the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The items donated included nose masks, hand sanitisers, gloves, and liquid soap.

As the world continues to grapple with the pandemic, several corporate organisations in the country have adopted plans to ensure business continuity and the safety of workers and stakeholders.

GRIDCo has been one of the many companies at the forefront of propagating the right messaging and awareness about the coronavirus, both for staff and external stakeholders.

The company has instituted strict measures around social distancing, safety measures at the workplace, and an efficient working-from-home policy to ensure it continues to carry out its mandate of uninterrupted power supply to its customers.

The donation by TBEA is expected to complement efforts already made by the company to ensure employees are able to work efficiently despite the setbacks of

the pandemic.

Receiving the PPEs, Chief Executive of GRIDCo, Jonathan Amoako-Baah, said: “TBEA is an important partner in Ghana’s power sector and we are grateful for their support. We always aim, as a company, to ensure enhanced safety and protection for our employees as they go about their duties, especially during this COVID-19 pandemic era. The PPEs will be put to appropriate use for

the benefit of all.”

Commenting during the presentation, TBEA Vice President Jia Xiaohui said: “GRIDCo is an essential player in Ghana’s power sector, and it is important for their workers and contractors to be protected in their daily operations.

We are confident that these items will contribute significantly in ensuring business continuity for the national grid.”

TBEA is a leading power company, headquartered in China, with international experience in power supply and grid development throughout the world.

The company is currently undertaking power expansion projects in Ghana in partnership with GRIDCo.

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Use of NBSSI for GH¢ 600million stimulus disbursement questioned A former Executive Director of Standard Chartered Bank, Mr. Alex Mould, has urged government to discontinue the decision to use the National Board for Small Scale Industries (NBSSI) to disburse the GH¢ 600million soft Loan stimulus package for Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs).

The soft loans, which is under the Coronavirus Alleviation Programme (CAP), is intended to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the operations SMEs. Government has announced that the NBSSI will have access to the fund this month and begin disbursement to SMEs in the country.

But the energy and finance expert, has questioned the use of NBSSI to disburse the loans.

According to him, unlike financial institutions that are regulated, have credit underwriting standards and credit approval procedures, “the NBSSI is a bureaucratic institution controlled by politicians. Financial institutions should be the channel for disbursing the GHS600m earmarked for the SMEs under the CAP, or it could become a

political slush fund otherwise” the immediate past Chief Executive of Ghana National Petroleum Corporation stressed.

“Government should be crystal clear on the terms of GH¢600m loan fund allocated to SMEs under Coronavirus Alleviation Programme.

The loan, which comes with a oneyear moratorium and a two-year repayment period is intended to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 on the operations of micro, small and medium-sized businesses.

“Financial institutions should be the channel for disbursing the GH¢600m earmarked for the SMEs under CAP, or it could become a political slush fund otherwise.

“Clear risk sharing allocation protocols must be agreed between Government and Financial institutions.

“Additionally, stakeholder engagement e.g. trade associations, Association of small scale induatries (ASSI) etc is necessary to help determine the needs of SMEs amid the COVID-19 pandemic,”

Maximization of resources needed in the fight against COVID-19 – NCCE The National Commission for Civic Education (NCCE) on Saturday commended efforts by stakeholders in the fight against the spread of COVID-19 saying there is the need for coordinated teamwork and sharing of resources by nonessential institutions.

“There is the urgent need for all partners to combine their technical and operational abilities to support the national health response in this crisis to ensure that people in need receive all essential health care and information.

“I wish to humbly suggest that the various Regional Ministers should liaise with their colleague Minister at the Ministry of Education to fashion out a policy whereby vehicles in the various educational institutions can be released to the NCCE and other state institutions at the Regional and District levels purposely for the COVID-19 public education campaign,” the NCCE said.

Mr Eric Adu, Ahafo NCCE Regional Director, speaking in a telephone interview with the Ghana News Agency on the Commission’s Anti COVID-19 Public Education Campaign across the country, said institutions which are not operating fully must release their vehicles to frontline public institutions to use.

He said in order to safeguard the

proper handling of the vehicles, the actual drivers of these vehicles from their mother institutions must also be seconded to the secondary user bodies to be in charge of the driving of the vehicles.

He also suggested that the Regional Coordinating Councils should also direct the various District Chief Executives to take care of the fuel and daily feeding allowance of the drivers of such vehicles for the public education campaign.

The NCCE Ahafo Regional Director said since these vehicles do not have fitted public address systems, a special appeal can be made to the Trustees of COVID-19 National Trust Fund to purchase these detachable public address systems to be fitted temporarily in these vehicles.

Mr. Adu also called on benevolent institutions also to lend its vehicles and drivers to the NCCE for the same purpose as the Church of Pentecost of Ghana has done by donating 12 of its Cinema Vans plus fuel and drivers for NCCE Anti COVID-19 public education.

He also commended government for providing Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) to the NCCE and appealed for more financial and logistical resources to enable the Commission continue vigorous with the public education.

He said the NCCE has the human capacity to ensure that the citizenry get the right information at their door steps and to incentivize them to adhere to the containment protocols as the surest means to break the chain of transmission.

Mr. Adu said those who are anticipating that things will return to normalcy without their contribution to this fight must begin

to revise their notes and join the fray, because no contribution is too small and everybody counts in this fight.

He said Ghana is dealing with an emergency of an unprecedented scale with not only health implication but also legal, economic and socio-political dimensions, “we must work together to defeat the enemy COVID-19. GNA

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Unleash spectrum potential to pave the way to a digital Ghana

BY KAFUI AMANFU

T

he internet has revolutionized our society at an unprecedented speed, with mobile a key tool supporting its rapid growth. A recent study by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) found that a 10% increase in mobile broadband penetration yields a 1.8% increase in GDP in middle-income countries and a 2% increase in lowincome countries [Source: Katz and Callord, ‘The economic contribution of broadband digitization and ICT regulation’ (2018)]. According to GSMA statistics, mobile technologies and services generated 8.6% of GDP in 2018 in Sub-Saharan Africa – a contribution that amounted to $144.1 billion of economic value added.

By 2023, mobile’s contribution will reach almost $185 billion (9.1% of GDP). The mobile ecosystem also supported almost 3.5 million jobs in that same year.

Ghana Mobile Industry Development Overview The Government of Ghana has placed a strong emphasis on the role of mobile technology in the country’s development. Ghana has one of the highest mobile penetration in West Africa. By the end of 2019, mobile penetration stood at 139%, higher than the Africa average of 85%.

Although in Africa, Ghana’s mobile connection is leading, there is still a gap to be bridged with regards to the ITU target of High-Speed Connectivity. There is target to increase unique subscriber penetration by 64% and mobile internet penetration 38.6%. By 2023, 60% of individuals in developing countries will use internet –ITU. Key Challenges that Remain in

Mobile Industry Development in Ghana According to OVEM forecast, Ghana’s 2020 3G connectivity will be 52.8%, 2G connection, 39.7%, and 4G connection is only 7.2%.

However, Ghana boasts of a very young population with persons under the age of 15 making up 37% of the population. These millennials are known to follow modern trends, these traits make their data demands quite high and thus easier for them to transition to 4G now and 5G later. In order to boost quality of experience and to satisfy the growing demand for high-speed connectivity, transitioning to 4G is particularly important, and in order to roll out and move more users onto 4G networks, an important driver is releasing enough 4G spectrum to Mobile Network Operators (MNOs).

In 2020, 4G terminal shipments are expected to exceed 3G terminals.

Use Technology-Neutral Licenses to Improve Spectrum Efficiency Spectrum neutrality during the licensing process should be widely adopted when releasing spectrum to MNOs. This maximizes spectral efficiency in a technical sense and also maximizes efficient use of spectrum. The success of technology neutrality is evidenced by the fact that the 1800 MHz band, originally the second GSM band, is now the world’s most widely used band for LTE. Dr Pantelis Koutroumpis of Oxford University discovered during his research on some countries that, “the increase in broadband connections per 100 people contributed to a cumulative GDP increase of 4.34%.

More Considerations for 5G Spectrum to Secure Future Growth/ Competitiveness Some countries are already

beginning to roll out the 5G mobile services. At the end of 2019, 57 MNOs had launched live 5G networks across the globe, in 27 markets [Source: GSMA, 5G reality check: the expected and unexpected, 2020.3]. 5G networks promise significantly faster mobile broadband speeds and support strong growth in mobile data volumes. However, the speed, and quality of 5G services will depend on governments and regulators supporting timely access to the right amount and type of spectrum under the right conditions.

To address diversified requirements 5G needs access to “high”, “mid” and “low” frequency bands. A sufficient amount of harmonized spectrum in each layer should be made available by national regulators in a timely manner to enable mobile operators to deliver 5G services.

Mid-bands between 2 to 8 GHz are crucial to support most 5G usage scenarios in wide-areas. The unpaired Time Division Duplex (TDD) bands at 3300-4200, 44005000, 2500-2690 and 2300-2400 MHz deliver the best options between wide-area coverage and high capacity. The low and high frequency band layers can be released as the second step to meet different usage requirement in the later phases of 5G development.

Coverage Obligations Coverage obligations is in theory an effective mechanism to ensure coverage of rural areas Setting realistic obligations in terms of targets and timelines, and including them in spectrum licenses can be an effective vehicle to drive coverage.

For example, in 2013, during the 800MHz spectrum allocation in the United Kingdom, the OFCOM decided to include a coverage

obligation in one of the 800MHz licenses. It required the licensee to provide a mobile broadband service for indoor reception to users in an area covering 98% of the UK population.

Price Spectrum Fairly Governments should allocate spectrum with the aim of fulfilling their connectivity objectives. High spectrum prices and fees increases the cost incurred by MNOs who in turn transfer these costs to consumers thus affecting primarily the affordability of mobile services.

This restricts access especially in rural areas. Furthermore, using spectrum to maximize government’s revenue can result in spectrum going unsold after an auction. In this case, the spectrum would remain unused, causing an irrecoverable loss of commercial and public value.

Summary For the foreseeable future, spectrum will remain an important element for (affordable) broadband (particularly mobile) development in GHANA; Spectrum administrators in the country should put in their utmost best to making the country spectrum-ready for 4G and 5G abiding with ITU process and recommendations in allocating and implementing spectrum.

Kafui Amanfu, Director of Operations, Institute of ICT Professionals Ghana, For comments, contact info@iipgh.org

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AV I AT I O N

with Dominick Andoh Email: kofi.pra@gmail.com

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Rolls-Royce launches first immersive virtual reality training for business aviation customers Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, Rolls-Royce continues to ensure world-class support for our global customer base. As part of our IntelligentEngine vision we are further expanding the use of immersive Virtual Reality technology for customer training.

The latest addition to the remote training programme is an instructor-led distance learning course, providing a comprehensive overview of the construction, design and operation of the Rolls-Royce BR725 engine that powers Gulfstream’s current flagship G650 business aircraft family. After completion of this comprehensive two-day training course, participants will be able to service the engine and undertake non-routine maintenance.

Andy Robinson, SVP Customers and Services – Business Aviation, Rolls-Royce, said: “Rolls-Royce has been the leading engine supplier for business aircraft for more than two decades thanks to our continued commitment to the highest levels of service support.

We are tremendously proud to have been voted number one in the latest

Engine Product Support Services Survey of Aviation International News (AIN) by our operators.

Digitalisation plays a vital role in in bringing our IntelligentEngine vision to life; we use it to design, test and maintain our engines. This new immersive live Virtual Training tool is nothing short of a gamechanger – it makes us the leader in technical training and allows customers to participate in the new training, wherever they are in the world. They just need an internet connection, and the required VR equipment, which will be shipped directly to their door,” Andy added.

Lee Bradshaw, Director of Technical Operations, Cox Aviation, said: “The new Virtual Reality maintenance course is a great example of the innovative thinking that is needed to meet the challenges of our everchanging world. This programme allows each student to immerse themselves in an augmented environment full of realistic images, interactive functions and auditory feedback to delve deeper into the engine like never before. The course complements the industry-leading service already provided by Rolls-

Royce and is another reminder of why this company is pioneering the way in creative solutions for the future.”

While not intended to completely replace practical training, RollsRoyce see the value Virtual Reality adds for customers, such as higher flexibility and the elimination of the need to ship a full size training engine. The user finds themself as part of two realistic scenarios –

the engine installed on the aircraft in a virtual hangar and the BR725 engine alone, just like it would be in our in-person training courses.

The immersive environment allows them not only to watch the process steps to get familiar with the respective task, but to interact with the engine and the tools, and actually accomplish the task under the constant supervision of the instructor. (Source: Rolls-Royce)

Post-Pandemic Homecoming Set to Boost African Airlines’ Recovery Ethiopian Airlines Group sees African air traffic returning to precoronavirus crisis levels quicker than the rest of the world, boosted by a temporary spike in demand from stranded citizens returning home.

Governments of countries including Uganda, Kenya and Madagascar closed their borders before or almost immediately after confirming their first Covid-19 cases, leaving thousands of business, student and health travelers unable to move. People were also put off by prohibitive conditions such as a $1,400 bill to self-isolate in selected hotels.

The continent’s aviation industry could start to recover next year even after losing an estimated $6 billion in ticket sales in 2020, Chief Executive Officer Tewolde GebreMariam told Bloomberg TV on Friday. While global flights are forecast to take up to two years to return to 2019 levels, “here in Africa we expect to be slightly faster in recovery,” Tewolde said.

Demand for flights to Asian markets like China and India will particularly pick up faster than to Europe and North America, he said.

African carriers face an arduous journey to stay in operation until the crisis eases, the CEO said.

Some of the continent’s biggest airlines, including South African

Airways and Kenya Airways, were dependent on government funding even before measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic forced the grounding of almost all planes.

Bail Out “African governments will not be in a position to bail out airlines as much as in Europe and America,” said Tewolde. “Airlines are not flying or generating revenue and governments do not have the

resources to bail them out. It is going to be very, very tough for most African airlines.”

Ethiopian has established itself as the biggest and only consistently profitable carrier on the continent, building a hub in Addis Ababa as a connection point for African travelers to the Middle East, Asia, Europe and North America. Tewolde has said in previous interviews that the state-owned company hasn’t yet

needed to call on the government for financial assistance, though it is receiving help negotiating debt repayments with lenders in China and elsewhere.

South African Airways’ position is far more precarious. The carrier is in a local form of bankruptcy protection and the subject of a tug of war between administrators and the government over its future.

Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordan sees SAA as a platform from which to build a new, profitable airline, but the business-rescue team currently in charge of the carrier sees liquidation as a more viable option.

“The best predictions are that it will take three years for the airline industry to recover in any shape or form,” Gordhan told the South African parliament’s Standing Committee on Public Accounts on Friday. The government is easing a lockdown to contain the coronavirus in phases, with domestic air travel likely to be weeks or months away.

Even then, ticket prices may be too expensive for many people, Gordhan said.

Kenya Airways has been seeking state support and the government is reviewing a request for 7 billion shillings ($65 million), the Nairobibased Business Daily newspaper reported earlier this week.

(Bloomberg)

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E N E R GY

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Total is exploring quantum algorithms to improve CO2 capture Total is stepping up its research into Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technologies by signing a multi-year partnership with UK start-up Cambridge Quantum Computing (CQC). This partnership aims to develop new quantum algorithms to improve materials for CO2 capture. Total’s ambition is to be a major player in CCUS and the Group currently invests up to 10% of its annual research and development effort in this area.

To improve the capture of CO2, Total is working on nanoporous materials called adsorbents, considered to be among the most promising solutions. These materials could eventually be used to trap the CO2 emitted by the Group’s industrial operations or those of other players (cement, steel etc.). The CO2 recovered would then be concentrated and reused or stored permanently.

These materials could also be used to capture CO2 directly from the air (Direct Air Capture or DAC).

The quantum algorithms which will be developed in the collaboration between Total and CQC will simulate all the physical and chemical mechanisms in these adsorbents as a function of their size, shape and chemical composition, and therefore make it possible to select the most efficient materials to develop. Currently, such simulations are impossible to perform with a conventional supercomputer, which justifies the use of quantum calculations.

“Total is very pleased to be launching this new collaboration with Cambridge Quantum Computing: quantum computing opens up new possibilities for solving extremely complex problems. We are therefore among the first to use quantum computing in our research to design new materials

GOIL donates items worth over GH¢50,000 to Police Hospital

GOIL Company Limited, continues to assist health institutions and frontline staff in the fight against the novel pandemic, the COVID-19.

The latest is the Police Hospital in Accra where the company 50 thousand cedis worth of Medical items and Personal protective Equipment to fight the corona virus disease.

The items included Medical Scrubs, Face masks, Bed sheets, Veronica buckets, Liquid soap, Tissue, Hand sanitizers and Gloves.

Making the presentation, the Group CEO/MD, Kwame Osei Prempeh noted that GOIL has already donated similar items to other institutions including, the 37 Military Hospital, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, GPRTU, Ashaiman Polyclinic and the National COVID-19 Trust Fund.

He said GOIL will continue to play its role as an important partner in the fight against the spread of the virus as part of its corporate

social responsibility adding that the company will be of benefit to Ghanaians as the biggest and indigenous OMC in the country.

“GOIL will continue to partner and collaborate with the Ghana Police service in the uninterrupted supply of fuel to the Police Service and other security services”. Mr. Kwame Osei Prempeh, he added.

The Medical Director of the Police Hospital and Deputy Commissioner of Police, Dr. Mrs. Marian Korboe, received the items and expressed gratitude to GOIL for the kind gesture noting that the donation has come at the right time to help address the COVID-19 disease, specifically, to help the frontline staff to deliver effective services to the affected people.

Dr. Korbou recalled GOIL’s assistance last year towards the rehabilitation of the Executive ward of the hospital and thanked the company for its continued assistanc

capable of capturing CO2 more efficiently. In this way, Total intends to accelerate the development of the CCUS technologies that are essential to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050” said Marie-Noëlle Semeria, Total’s CTO. Ilyas Khan, CEO of CQC, said: “We are very excited to be working with Total, a demonstrated thought-

leader in CCUS technology. Carbon neutrality is one of the most significant topics of our time and incredibly important to the future of the planet. Total has a proven long-term commitment to CCUS solutions. We are hopeful that our work will lead to meaningful contributions and an acceleration on the path to carbon neutrality.”

Namibia’s Ministry of Mines and Energy is optimistic about the future With the recently introduced reforms in Namibia’s renewable energy sector and the growing presence and entry of international oil companies entering the hydrocarbons sector, the Ministry of Mines and Energy is optimistic about the country’s energy future.

“There are very positive and encouraging signs when we talk about the hydrocarbons sector. We have had a couple of investors that are keen on entering the market and potentially finding something,” said Hon. Tom Alweendo, Namibia’s Minister of Mines and Energy during a webinar hosted by the African Energy Chamber in partnership with Africa Oil & Power on Friday.

“On the renewable energy sector, we have been able to introduce some reforms that have made it possible for independent power producers to come into the sector and produce clean energy, especially through solar and wind,” he added.

Minister Alweendo was joined by the Chamber’s Executive Chairman, NJ Ayuk, who encouraged a practical and realistic energy transition that addresses the continent’s energy needs first. “Oil and gas are going to be around for a long time and will remain a major part of many countries across Africa. The same can be said for clean energy.

We have to be environmentally conscious and ensure that lowering carbon emissions remains a key priority,” said Nj Ayuk. “But, we have to also look at where we stand

as a continent and address our needs first,” he added.

Although Namibia is largely a consuming country, it hopes to grow its upstream industry, improve energy security through diversifying its energy mix. In achieving this, the country is looking forward to collaborating with the private sector to review its policies in order to attracter further investment.

Other topics explored during the discussion guided by the theme: The Future of the Namibian Energy Industry included plans on the development of the Kudu gas project to which the minister provided that the ministry is currently relooking the project’s business model and hopes to move forward thereafter.

On other key projects, Minister Alweendo said the 37,500 bpd barge-mounted refinery in Walvis bay was due to finalize in March this year but, was deterred by the pandemic. Despite this, the ministry is exploring other avenues in order to reach completion on the $370 million project by the end of 2020.

The Angola-Namibia cross border Baynes hydroelectric dam is currently undergoing feasibility studies and is planned to commence with construction in June this year.

The 600MW output will be split in 300MW for Angola and 300MW for Namibia.

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Dismantling the retirement age architecture

BY PROFESSOR STEPHEN KWAKU ASARE

T

he Supreme Court recently decided by a 5-2 majority that the 66 years old Martin Amidu was qualified to be nominated and appointed to the office of the Special Prosecutor even though the mandatory retiring age from the public service is 60. It is good that this matter, albeit delayed, has ended. In a constitutional democracy, the Court has the last word and it has spoken.

While other views are just that, they must nevertheless be aired for accountability purposes. All good judges crave for and accept honest, constructive feedback on a regular basis because they are acutely aware that their skills will atrophy, absent such feedback.

I would have voted with the minority on grounds that Parliament has no authority to create a public service position that subverts the retirement age scheme stipulated by the Constitution.

The Constitution creates two kinds of public officers, one who can be dismissed only for cause and the other at will. See chart below.

“At will” public officers are normally elected or serve at the pleasure of elected officials. They can be dismissed at will either by electors or their appointors. Because their tenure is hazardous at best, the Constitution specifies no mandatory age. “For cause” public officers are normally career officers and can only be dismissed for a good cause. Because their tenure is guaranteed while they act properly, the Constitution sets a mandatory retirement age. Here, the Constitution itself provides that a few in this category must retire at 70, others at 65, and all others at 60.

This means unless otherwise included in the 70 or 65 bucket, a for cause public officer must retire at 60.

This is what Article 199(1) means when it provides that “A public officer shall, except as otherwise provided in this Constitution, retire from the public service on attaining the age of sixty years.” It is such a clear command that it is not capable of any other interpretation. This is why the SC, in the Appiah-Ofori, case rejected the argument that the Auditor General being appointed under Article 70 should retire at 70.

The Special Prosecutor is a for cause public service position. It is neither elected nor does the occupier serve at the pleasure of the appointors.

Plainly, it is just a specialized prosecution position. In my opinion, just because the Constitution itself allows some for cause public officers to retire at 65 and 70, does not mean Parliament too can create positions that set the retirement age beyond 60 or otherwise effectively upset the constitutional retirement scheme.

Otherwise, we are in a regime where all parliament needs to do is to create a Special Professor or Special AuditorGeneral position and stipulate that they serve for a 10-year term, which then allows them to be appointed after mandatory retirement for 10 more years.

The Constitution was Amended in 1996 to add Article 199(4), which provides that “Notwithstanding clause (1) of this article, a public officer who has retired from the public service after, attaining the age of sixty years may, where the exigencies of the service require be engaged for a limited period of not more than two years at a time but not exceeding five years in all upon such other terms and conditions as the appointing authority shall determine.

However, it has not been suggested that the Special Prosecutor has been appointed under this Limited Period contract. Nor has anyone identified the exigencies that will warrant the triggering of this clause.

It is logically unpleasant for a Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) to be retired mandatorily at 60 only to be appointed to another public service prosecutorial position for a fixed term. Whether one is in charge of prosecuting corruption or prosecuting armed robbers should not determine one’s retirement age.

At least, that facially absurd regime is not in the Constitution.

Where the Constitution has provided an explicit scheme to govern the retirement of public service officials, Parliament cannot create public service positions that in effect have no retirement age. Nor should, in my opinion, the Supreme Court under the guise of a “purposive” approach sanction such a parliamentary adventure.

Likewise, while the Constitution sets a minimum age of 40 for the President and 21 for an MP, that does not mean Parliament too can start setting its own minimum age limits on other public service positions. In our polity, it is the Constitution, not Parliament, that is supreme. We must therefore be careful not to apply doctrines that we inherited during our colonial history.

The Court’s reasoning that the SP office is critical, which therefore empowers Parliament to traverse Article 199(1) is flawed and at variance with the Court’s holding in the Appiah-Ofori case. In AppiahOfori, the Plaintiff canvassed similar arguments about the Auditor-General being an Article 70 appointee, whose functions are critical, and should therefore retire at 70 in pari materia with Court of Appeal judges. Referring to the clear wording of Article 199(1),

the Court rejected the argument. As the Constitution did not stipulate a specific mandatory retirement age for the Auditor-General, it followed that he or she must retire at 60.

The Court’s COVID example, wherein an emergency can provide a constitutional basis for changes in the retirement age, undermines constitutional theory.

A constitutional amendment, not a misguided application of purposive interpretation, is required if it becomes obvious that health workers, for instance, should be allowed to work beyond the mandatory retirement age.

It is both wrong and a distortion of the record for the Court to have relied on Parliament’s residual power under Article 298 or any other Article.

Wrong, because Article 199 exhausts the retirement age issue. The residual power cannot be triggered where there is an express constitutional voice on a matter. A distortion, because Parliament itself declared that it was relying on its powers under Article 190(1)(d), which also resolves the issue of whether the office is part the Public Service. It is!

The Court’s holding that there was no clear prohibition, inference or language in the constitution that barred Parliament from crossing the 60 years retirement age when fixing the tenure of office for certain critical office holders is fanciful. Article 199(1) is a very clear prohibition.

Other than the exceptions provided by the Constitution itself, no law and no Court is permitted to set a retirement age for public officers in the public service. Article 199(1) does not distinguish among professional, technical, bureaucratic, or administrative personnel in the public service as the Court declares.

The Court’s extensive treatise on purposive interpretation and resort to Tuffuor added no value and the Court woefully failed to apply the principles therein. It is becoming a worrying trend that whenever the Court decides to ignore the Constitution, it does so by offering an inconsequential treatise on these interpretive aids. Neither a purposive approach nor Tuffuor stand for the proposition that the clear words of the Constitution must be ignored.

Nor do they stand for distorting the record on what Parliament itself has

relied on. In this case, both the 1979 and 1992 “Committees of Experts” were ad idem on constitutionalizing the retirement age for public officers to take it from the realm of politics.

They were firm that the mandatory retirement age is 60 and in rare cases can be extended for a period not to exceed five years, leading to a ceiling of 65.

The Court’s extended discussion of why there is not a single retirement age for all public officers was entirely gratuitous because it was never an issue. Moreover, the Court failed to offer a framework, similar to the one here, that ties together these disparate ages. The Plaintiff acknowledged that and the figure above explains why.

The framers have painstakingly and meticulously provided a retirement age architecture that the Court has undone in a rather cavalier way by ignoring its own precedents and distorting the parliamentary record on the OSP legislation.

Article 199(1) is entirely meaningless if any transient parliament can create public service positions for which it does not apply. Except as provided in this Constitution means just that!!

Thus, it was entirely per incuriam for the Court to hold that Parliament has the flexibility and authority in appropriate cases to prescribe a retirement age different from the article 199 age as the exigencies of the job will require. I do, of course, have concerns with the mandatory age of 60 and have indicated the need to amend the Constitution to increase it to 70 while allowing people to voluntarily retire at 60.

A final noteworthy point is that the Supreme Court took more than 2 years to determine this case. This is not good enough. A question about the qualifications of a person to hold a certain office must be resolved immediately. Ideally, it must be resolved before the person ascends to that office. A delay in answering such a question is not just unjust, it also puts the Court in a precarious position where saying the appointee is disqualified raises questions about the Court’s wisdom in allowing an unqualified person to hold the position for 2+ years in violation of the Constitution. Unconsciously, such delays may then bias the Court toward a finding of constitutionality to avoid the dissonance of declaring unconstitutionality after allowing the unconstitutionality to persist for 2+ years.

Alas, this is not the first time that such an unacceptable delay has occurred. In fact, such delays, in time-sensitive constitutional cases, have become the norm. The Court should figure out a way to address this problem as it is causing the public to lose confidence in and respect for these delayed opinions. Many of these constitutional cases are about legal arguments and do not involve testimony from witnesses. They can be resolved much quicker than the current practices allow. The Court must do more to enhance judicial efficiency.

Stephen Kwaku Asare, Professor, © 2020

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Developing real estate markets in Sub-Sahara Africa: The fundamentals

BY WILFRED ANIM-ODAME

R

ecent years have seen a rise in the flow of real estate capital from advanced countries into Sub-Sahara Africa. Globalization of real estate markets notwithstanding, the trend is characterized by a mis-matched of lack of growth in real estate markets analysis and research in the sub-region from both academic and industry sources. Developments of standard market indicators such as rental growth, capital growth, price and rental indices, yields, total returns and market stock that are available in mature markets still remain available only in very limited markets in the sub-region.

Much of the works on Sub-Sahara African real estate markets takes viewpoint of investors from the advanced economies. It focuses on questions like the ability of new markets to meet the standards of professionalism and transparency required by inward investors.

In examining selected real estate markets in the continent – Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Namibia – the paper makes an original contribution to the understanding of real estate markets potentials and in particular presents characteristics to confirm the uniqueness of each market. The research methodology is from a qualitative perspective and primarily relies on evidence from market reports and survey by the Global Transparency Index produced by Jones Lang LaSalle, Global Competitiveness Index by the World Economic Forum and Global Property Guide.

Evidence from the research suggests that real estate markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (with the exception of South Africa) share characteristics of emerging markets in terms of limited transaction data, low quality of data, transparency issues, valuation standards and the inactive participation of international market intermediaries.

A large increase in global real estate capital flows has, in the last decade, been a major factor increasing the transparency and information of a set of “emerging” real estate markets in Africa. The size of higher-quality real estate investment stocks, in Sub-Sahara African markets (with the exception of South Africa) tends to suggest the markets are well outside the investment horizons of global investors. For the immediate future, therefore, the evolution of markets in the sub-region is likely to be largely driven by domestic rather than foreign capital flows.

Both information sources and published literature on African real estate markets are, on the whole, limited. With the partial exception of South Africa, there are few

sources, and no long time series, of the market performance indicators which are the primary parameters to track conditions in mature markets.

However, the South African real estate market shares characteristics of mature markets in terms of data quality and transparency, valuation standards and the active participation of international market intermediaries. Real estate has always been an important part of a typical investment portfolio (Galaty, F.W; et. al.; 2015).

Real estate requires reliable and credible datasets, which are easily accessible as with all other asset classes. A careful market analysis to generate the required performance indicators is also critical. Widely known as a long term asset class, real estate for example, in the US and UK as well as other mature markets has longer investment gestation period – 10 to 20 years or more, and also 3 typically delivers above average or high rates of return. In some markets, an impressive return can be achieved even after a relatively short period of investment.

In the context of this study, some qualities of real estate as an investment vehicle have been identified. Real estate has the ability to offer investors a greater control over their investments than other asset classes such as bonds, stocks, or securities. In addition, real estate marketplace consists of vendors and vendees who deal mostly directly with each other. Further, investing in real estate requires an informed decision based on all relevant factors – property location, neighbourhood characteristics, title particulars, statutory requirements, and details of construction – as well

as the market dynamics at the time of transaction.

It is also equally relevant to briefly discuss the downside of real estate as an investment asset. Huge capital is often required for real estate investment because it is an expensive venture to undertake. Liquidity, an indication of how quickly an asset may be converted into money is also worth considering. Stocks and bonds are generally highly liquid than real estate over short term.

And because management decisions are needed in the life cycle of a real estate investment, it demands active management. Due diligence, an exploration of the rewards and burden from real estate investment is also a requisite in all transactions.

The stock of investible real estate represents a significant share of a nation’s wealth and productive capital. The stock of wealth and capital need to be carefully managed because it is both an important factor of production and an asset in the economy (Corcoran, 1987). The performance of other investments – stocks and bonds – tends influence price changes of real estate assets in all economies because these are competing investment vehicles.

Countries in the Sub-Saharan region lack active real estate investment markets. To a large extent that the primary sources of market evidence, which shape real estate, research in the advanced economies and in a growing list of transitional and emerging economies are virtually non-existent in most economies. Limited firms of global intermediaries such as Investment Property Databank (IPD) and Knight Frank produce market indicators for real estate markets in few selected

Africa countries.

Residential sector is predominantly one part of income producing real estate market. Though it is subject to fundamental demand, supply and leasing factors which varies from those of, for example, the office sector, the leading driving force is cash flow from the investment.

Cash flow characteristic, in turn, generate the expected risk and return profile of real estate as an asset class (Anim-Odame, W.K., 2012). It is conventional to treat real estate cash flows as a blend of fixed income and variable income (Hoesli and MacGregor, 2000; Geltner et. al, 2007). The fixed income element is the current rent payable by tenants which is typically fixed by lease contracts up to the next lease expiry or rent review. This is essentially a bondtype income stream; the primary risk attached to it is that of tenant default. The variable income element is the rental payments which will apply following future lease expiries and rent reviews. This element is subject to multiple risks, but the predominant risk is the variability in market rental prices over time, driven by shifts in the balance of occupier supply and demand. Risks which apply to the variable income element – market rentals, leasing, voids – are all heavily influenced by the state of the economy.

Anim-Odame, Wilfred. (2016).

Developing Real Estate Markets in Sub-Sahara Africa: The Fundamentals. Real Estate Finance. Volume 33.

26-32.)

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Preventing a COVID-19 food crisis

BY CARMEN M. REINHART ROB SUBBARAMAN

E

ven before the pandemic, there were signs that global food prices could soon surge. Extreme weather events induced by climate change have become more common.

African swine fever wiped out over one-quarter of the world’s pig population last year, causing food prices in China to increase by 1522% year on year so far in 2020.

And more recently, the worst locust blight in 70 years has destroyed crops in East Africa. In Kenya, the price of maize, a staple food, has risen by over 60% since 2019.

COVID-19 is amplifying the risk of a worldwide food-price spike, which would trigger outright crises in many developing countries. In the poorest of these, food accounts for 40-60% of the consumption basket, about 5-6 times its share in advanced economies.

While lockdowns have led to a collapse in demand for durable goods and discretionary services, the opposite is true of food. In cities around the world, reports of panic buying and food hoarding have proliferated since the pandemic began.

On the supply side, global grain stockpiles are healthy but could quickly be depleted as the virus disrupts food production and distribution. And shortages of animal feed, fertilizers, and pesticides have increased both the costs of farming and the risk of bad harvests.

Moreover, from harvesting fruits and vegetables in India to operating meat plants in America, labor shortages are becoming increasingly

apparent as cross-border travel restrictions in much of the world disrupt the normal seasonal cycle of migrant farm workers. And transportation shortages are making it more challenging to get produce to market – when there is one.

Farmers need to reconfigure their supply chains away from bulk wholesale to (currently closed) restaurants, hotels, and schools, and toward grocery stores and home delivery. But that takes time, not least because commercial and consumer food products are prepared and packaged differently.

In the meantime, fresh produce has had to be destroyed.

Furthermore, some major foodproducing countries have already imposed export bans or quotas in response to the pandemic, as Russia and Kazakhstan have done for grain, and India and Vietnam have done for rice. Meanwhile, other countries are stockpiling food through accelerated imports, as is true of the Philippines (rice) and Egypt (wheat).

Such food protectionism may seem like a good way to provide relief to the most vulnerable segments of the population, but simultaneous interventions by many governments can result in a global food-price surge, as happened in 2010-11.

The World Bank estimates that protectionism accounted for about 40% of the increase in the global price of wheat and 25% of the rise in maize prices at that time.

One can understand these countries’ nervousness. While the COVID-19 pandemic has led to falling growth, rising unemployment, widening fiscal deficits, and soaring debt in advanced and emerging economies alike, the appearance of new infection hotbeds in developing countries will mean an even starker

tradeoff between saving lives and protecting livelihoods. Moreover, developing countries are already facing a sudden stop in capital and remittance inflows and a collapse in tourism, while the terms of trade and currencies of the many oil and primary-commodity exporters among them are crashing. Even before COVID-19, many lowincome countries were at serious risk of debt distress. And many of these economies are also highly vulnerable to a spike in food prices.

Nomura’s Food Vulnerability Index ranks 110 countries based on their exposure to large food-price swings, taking into account their nominal GDP per capita, the share of food in household consumption, and net food imports. The latest reading shows that of the 50 countries most vulnerable to a sustained rise in food prices, nearly all are developing economies that account for nearly three-fifths of the world’s population.

In fact, surging food prices would be a global problem, because they are highly regressive everywhere.

Even in developed economies, a jump in food prices would drive a bigger wedge between the rich and poor, exacerbating already-severe wealth inequality. No one should ignore the age-old connection between food crises and social unrest.

Multilateral institutions have mobilized quickly during the crisis to provide emergency loans to a record number of developing countries, while G20 creditors have agreed to a temporary suspension of debt-service payments from poor countries that request forbearance. But because the risks posed by surging food prices do not apply only to the most vulnerable economies, temporary debt relief

may need to be extended to other countries as well.

With the pandemic threatening to wreak even more economic havoc, governments must work together to address the risk of disruptions to food supply chains. More broadly, some modicum of global policy coordination is essential to prevent food protectionism from becoming the post-pandemic new normal.

Carmen M. Reinhart

Rob Subbaraman

Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Rob Subbaraman is Chief Economist and Head of Global Markets Research for Asia ex-Japan at Nomura.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020. www.project-syndicate.org

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Cushioning the poor from the COVID-19 shock

BY REMA N. HANNA AND BENJAMIN A. OLKEN

W

henIndia’sgovernment announced, with four hours’ notice, a nationwide threeweek lockdown to stem the spread of the coronavirus, millions of the country’s poorest citizens faced the risk of hunger and destitution. Many migrant laborers, suddenly jobless, walked hundreds of miles from cities to their native villages. There, too, the COVID-19 lockdown may be devastating: poor households cannot survive long – often not more than a few days – without an income.

These challenges are worldwide.

But developed-country governments have been using their capacity to borrow to implement massive relief packages intended to support companies, the poor, and the working- and middle-class families at risk of being pushed into poverty by layoffs and business closures.

Developing-country governments must find ways to do the same.

Expanding social protection to reach vulnerable people quickly must be a pillar of every country’s COVID-19 strategy. To achieve this, resource-constrained governments must look to past experience and existing research to design the most effective and efficient programs possible.

Developing and implementing new social-protection programs takes time, so governments should build upon existing programs and platforms to ensure that all people have enough resources to meet their basic needs. There is no one-sizefits-all approach; each country must assess the mechanisms it already has in place, and then decide how to expand or otherwise reform them.

But there are some general guidelines that can help. Countries with cash-transfer programs should immediately broaden eligibility and increase the benefit. Given the scale of the economic shock, concerns that wealthier households might receive benefits they do not need should take a backseat to the imperative of ensuring that vulnerable people – including informal workers and middle-class households, which would not typically qualify for welfare programs – are covered. Our research suggests that on-demand applications – which require the unemployed to complete only a few steps, online or by phone, to gain access to benefits – would help governments to reach more people in need. Additional verification could be carried out later.

Moreover, cash transfers should be targeted at the most affected areas, such as large cities, where high population density accelerates contagion and lockdowns are concentrated.

Without cash transfers to soften the blow, the urban poor will migrate, as they have in India, potentially spreading the virus to other cities and rural areas (where already-limited health-care capacity will quickly be overwhelmed).

Where possible, benefits should be distributed via digital platforms, thereby enabling people to avoid physical contact. In the absence of such platforms, governments must be creative, using whatever touch points are available. For example, cash could be distributed through local governments or networks using door-to-door delivery or staggered pickup dates and times, based on national identification numbers. In Indonesia, where we work, many informal and middle-class workers have pension accounts; transfers could be deposited into those accounts, and early withdrawal restrictions could be relaxed.

Yet cash transfers alone may be

insufficient to protect the poor from destitution and hunger if food supply chains break down.

Governments must also monitor food prices and food availability, and can manage localized shortages by expanding targeted fooddistribution programs, releasing food stocks when necessary, and coordinating distribution with private companies.

Furthermore, governments could increase subsidies for existing public health insurance (even if only temporarily). This would relieve households and businesses of the burden of health-care premiums and reduce the risk of overwhelming families with medical costs in the event of a health shock.

In good times, demand for health insurance in developing countries is low, with many signing up only when they are already sick. But this is not simply a matter of shortterm thinking: cumbersome or malfunctioning enrollment systems, low-quality services, and lack of experience with insurance can discourage people from signing up.

Temporary subsidies, together with simplified enrollment procedures, can help to overcome these hurdles, leading to broader health-insurance coverage, even after the subsidies are removed. This is what happened in Indonesia when such a scheme was tested prior to the current crisis: offering informal workers temporary subsidies for public health insurance increased coverage eightfold, without raising unit costs, and many retained coverage beyond the subsidy period.

An effective COVID-19 response must also include lifelines for small businesses. Formal small and medium-size enterprises comprise an estimated 90% of businesses and 50% of employment worldwide.

But, because such businesses often lack cash reserves and face severe credit constraints, many will not survive temporary closures without

support.

For formal businesses, governments should consider tax deferments and holidays for hardhit sectors. Informal firms, which account for countless more jobs in developing countries, could work with banks and multilateral financial institutions to expand credit lines and cancel or suspend debt payments.

Some argue that welfare and subsidies discourage people from working. But our research shows that, even under ordinary circumstances, beneficiaries do not work less or invest differently. During this extraordinary period of social distancing and lockdowns, arguing about work incentives makes even less sense. Governments are forcing people to exit from the economy, so it is incumbent upon governments to help those people survive.

Rema N. Hanna

Benjamin A. Olken

Rema N. Hanna, Professor of South-East Asia Studies at the Harvard Kennedy School, is Faculty Director of Harvard’s Evidence for Policy Design and Scientific Director of J-PAL Southeast Asia. Benjamin A. Olken, Professor of Economics at MIT, is Director of MIT’s Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab and Scientific Director of J-PAL Southeast Asia.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020. www.project-syndicate.org

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The great lockdown: Worst economic downturn since the Great Depression

BY GITA GOPINATH

T

he world has changed dramatically in the three months since our last update of the World Economic Outlook in January. A rare disaster, a coronavirus pandemic, has resulted in a tragically large number of human lives being lost. As countries implement necessary quarantines and social distancing practices to contain the pandemic, the world has been put in a Great Lockdown. The magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes.

This is a crisis like no other, and there is substantial uncertainty about its impact on people’s lives and livelihoods. A lot depends on the epidemiology of the virus, the effectiveness of containment measures, and the development of therapeutics and vaccines, all of which are hard to predict. In addition, many countries now face multiple crises—a health crisis, a financial crisis, and a collapse in commodity prices, which interact in complex ways. Policymakers are providing unprecedented support to households, firms, and financial markets, and, while this is crucial for a strong recovery, there is considerable uncertainty about what the economic landscape will look like when we emerge from this lockdown.

Under the assumption that the pandemic and required containment peaks in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and recedes in the second half of this year, in the April World Economic Outlook we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, a major revision over a very short period. This makes the Great Lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis.

Assuming the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and that policy actions taken around the world are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, and system-wide financial strains, we project global growth in 2021 to rebound to 5.8 percent.

This recovery in 2021 is only partial as the level of economic activity is projected to remain below the level we had projected for 2021, before the virus hit. The cumulative loss to global GDP over 2020 and 2021 from the pandemic crisis could be around 9 trillion dollars, greater than the economies of Japan and Germany, combined.

This is a truly global crisis as no country is spared. Countries reliant on tourism, travel, hospitality, and entertainment for their growth are experiencing particularly large disruptions. Emerging market and developing economies face additional challenges with unprecedented

reversals in capital flows as global risk appetite wanes, and currency pressures, while coping with weaker health systems, and more limited fiscal space to provide support.

Moreover, several economies entered this crisis in a vulnerable state with sluggish growth and high debt levels.

For the first time since the Great Depression both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are in recession. For this year, growth in advanced economies is projected at -6.1 percent. Emerging market and developing economies with normal growth levels well above advanced economies are also projected to have negative growth rates of -1.0 percent in 2020, and -2.2 percent if you exclude China. Income per capita is projected to shrink for over 170 countries. Both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are expected to partially recover in 2021.

Alternative adverse scenarios What I have described is a baseline scenario but, given the extreme uncertainty around the duration and intensity of the health crisis, we also explore alternative, more adverse scenarios. The pandemic may not recede in the second half of this year, leading to longer durations of containment, worsening financial conditions, and further breakdowns of global supply chains. In such cases, global GDP would fall even further: an additional 3 percent in 2020 if the pandemic is more protracted this year, while, if the pandemic continues into 2021, it may fall next year by an additional 8 percent compared to our baseline scenario.

Exceptional policy actions Flattening the spread of COVID-19 using lockdowns allows health systems to cope with the disease, which then permits a resumption of economic activity. In this sense, there is no trade-off between saving lives and saving livelihoods. Countries should continue to spend generously on their health systems, perform widespread testing, and refrain from trade restrictions on medical supplies. A global effort must ensure that when therapies and vaccines

are developed both rich and poor nations alike have immediate access.

While the economy is shut down, policymakers will need to ensure that people are able to meet their needs and that businesses can pick up once the acute phases of the pandemic pass. The large, timely, and targeted, fiscal, monetary, and financial policies already taken by many policymakers— including credit guarantees, liquidity facilities, loan forbearance, expanded unemployment insurance, enhanced benefits, and tax relief— have been lifelines to households and businesses. This support should continue throughout the containment phase to minimize persistent scars that could emerge from subdued investment and job losses in this severe downturn.

Policymakers must also plan for the recovery. As containment measures come off, policies should shift swiftly to supporting demand, incentivizing firm hiring, and repairing balance sheets in the private and public sector to aid the recovery. Fiscal stimulus that is coordinated across countries with fiscal space will magnify the benefit for all economies.

Moratoria on debt repayments and debt restructuring may need to be continued during the recovery phase.

Multilateral cooperation is vital to the health of the global recovery.

To support needed spending in developing countries, bilateral creditors and international financial institutions should provide concessional financing, grants, and debt relief. The activation and establishment of swap lines between major central banks has helped ease shortages in international liquidity, and may need to be expanded to more economies. Collaborative effort is needed to ensure that the world does not de-globalize, so the recovery is not damaged by further losses to productivity.

At the International Monetary Fund, we are actively deploying our 1-trillion-dollar lending capacity to support vulnerable countries, including through rapid-disbursing emergency financing and debt

service relief to our poorest member countries, and we are calling on official bilateral creditors to do the same.

There are some hopeful signs that this health crisis will end. Countries are succeeding in containing the virus using social-distancing practices, testing, and contact tracing, at least for now, and treatments and vaccines may develop sooner than expected.

In the meantime, we face tremendous uncertainty around what comes next. Commensurate with the scale and speed of the crisis, domestic and international policy responses need to be large, rapidly deployed, and speedily recalibrated as new data becomes available.

The courageous actions of doctors and nurses need to be matched by policymakers all over the world so we can jointly overcome this crisis.

Source: IMF.org

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How pandemics leave the poor even farther behind

BY DAVIDE FURCERI, PRAKASH LOUNGANI, JONATHAN D. OSTRY

T

he COVID-19 crisis is now widely seen as the greatest economic calamity since the Great Depression.

In January, the IMF expected global income to grow 3 percent; it is now forecast to fall 3 percent, much worse than during the Great Recession of 2008-09. Behind this dire statistic is an even grimmer possibility: if past pandemics are any guide, the toll on poorer and vulnerable segments of society will be several times worse. Indeed, a recent poll of top economists found that the vast majority felt the COVID-19 pandemic will worsen inequality, in part through its disproportionate impact on lowskilled workers.

Our evidence supports concerns about the adverse distributional impacts of pandemics. We find that major epidemics in this century have raised income inequality and hurt employment prospects of those with only a basic education while scarcely affecting employment of people with advanced degrees.

We focus on five major events— SARS (2003), H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014) and Zika (2016)— and trace out their distributional effects in the five years following each event. On average, the Gini coefficient—a commonlyused measure of inequality—has increased steadily in the aftermath of these events. Our measure of the Gini is based on net incomes, that is market incomes after taxes and transfers. Our results show that inequality increases despite the efforts of governments to redistribute incomes from the rich to the poor to mitigate the effects of pandemics. After five years, the net Gini has gone up by nearly 1.5 percent, which is a large impact given that this measure moves slowly over time.

Such long-lasting effects of pandemics occur due to job loss and other shocks to income (e.g. lower remittances) and diminished employment prospects.

Our results show that pandemics have had vastly disparate impact on the employment of people with different levels of educational

attainment, one indicator of skill levels. The disparity is stark: relative to population, the employment of those with advanced levels of education is scarcely affected, whereas the employment of those with only basic levels of education falls sharply, by more than 5 percent at the end of five years.

Policy response While the pandemic is having an adverse effect on almost everyone in society, policies need to pay specific attention to preventing long-term damage (or “scarring”) to the livelihoods of the least advantaged in society. Without strenuous and targeted attempts, we are again likely to see an increase in inequality, which was already “one of the most complex and vexing challenges in the global economy,” in the words of the IMF’s Managing Director.

In concrete terms, what can be done? Access to sick leave, unemployment benefits, and health benefits is useful for all in dealing with the effects of the pandemic but particularly so for poorer segments of society who lack a savings cushion and are thus living hand-to-mouth.

Such a “New Deal” is important in sectors of the economy, and in regions, where informal work and self-employment are pervasive and where social protection systems are scant. Expanding social assistance systems, introducing new transfers, boosting public work programs to offer job opportunities, giving financing opportunities to sustain employment, and progressive tax measures (perhaps through a “solidarity surcharge”)—all are likely to be part of the policy mix to take the edge off the devastating distributional consequences from the pandemic.

Policymakers must use the opportunity to make fundamental changes so that when future shocks inevitably occur, including for example from the effects of climate change, societies have in place risk-sharing and social assistance mechanisms that will protect the most vulnerable much better than they do today. (Source: IMF.org)

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Tracking trade during the COVID-19 pandemic

BY DIEGO CERDEIRO, ANDRAS KOMAROMI, YANG LIU, AND MAMOON SAEED

W

ith the current fast-changing developments, policy makers need to know what is happening to the economy in real time, but they often must settle for data telling them what happened many weeks ago. And international trade, which links countries through a complex web of supply chains, is an area where timely information is especially valuable from a global perspective.

Most trade takes place by sea, and—for navigational safety purposes—virtually all cargo ships report their position, speed, and other information many times a day. A new IMF methodology using these data can help better inform us how international trade is affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Building on machine-learning techniques, we can provide better answers to simple questions such as: How big is the drop in trade activity? Should it be attributed mostly to exports or to imports?

A new approach Using over one billion messages from ships over a period of five years, the newly-developed methodology closely replicates official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. It is available at a daily frequency in real time, while official statistics are typically delayed by many weeks. At the global level, our indicators built from ships’ radio signals closely approximate monthly official trade

statistics (with a correlation of nearly 0.9 in levels, and around 0.4 in quarter-on-quarter growth rates).

The top panel of our Chart of the Week shows a dramatic fall in Chinese exports in the wake of initial lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus.

Exports resumed in early to midMarch, though in late-April the recovery remained incomplete and showed renewed signs of weakness.

The lower two panels show that as China started reopening its economy, world exports initially recovered across the board. In the specific case of oil and related products, the recent export performance is especially strong but is not fully matched by an increase in world imports—in line with reports that crude oil is being stored at sea.

However, more recently, exports of less commoditized goods (those transported in containers, and finished vehicles) appear on course for a second dip. The situation is perhaps best reflected in the very weak readings for vehicle exports and imports as companies across the supply chain halt production and households postpone purchases of durable goods.

Daily monitoring of trade developments in real time will help provide a reliable early warning regarding potential economic contagion effects amid the pandemic.

Source: IMF

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M A R K E T W AT C H

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By Agyei Samuel Ofosu

USDCAD

STRUCTURE • ABC ZigZag Correction

** Current price @ time of analysis: 1.40712

PREVIOUS/FORECAST • USDCAD, continued it correction of previous buy move with price forming an abcde triagle in wave 2 of C. • Expecting sell continuation to around 1.34927 price region STRUCTURE • Equidistant Channel

EURUSD

PREVIOUS/FORECAST • The Euro is trading within an equidistant channel • • Expecting price to buy from around 1.07000 price region

**current price @ time of analysis: 1.08110

STRUCTURE • Impulsive wave GBPUSD

PREVIOUS/FORECAST • GBPUSD completed wave 2 of its 5 wave impulsive move in an abc correction •

Expecting buy from around 1.21360 price region as it begins actionary wave 3

**current price @ time of analysis: 1.21972

STRUCTURE • Abcde Symmetric Triangle XAUUSD

PREVIOUS/FORECAST • Gold formed an abcde symmetric trainagle with upper boundary at around 1750.00 orice region.

•

Expecting sell to around 1600.00 price region

**current price @ time of analysis: 1.21972

HOW TO BE PROFITABLE IN TRADING

BY LUIS BOAH

Why do people fail in the forex market?

You would be demotivated when you hear the fact that the failure rate in the forex market is more than 95%.

Yes, most of the people who try their hand in the forex market, get out of it even before completing one full year.

It doesn’t mean that it is really tough to make it in the forex market. There is no need to crack thousands of hard puzzles to open the door of treasures.

If you go through the analysis by experts, it reveals that there is a pattern in the way people approach, and do execute in the forex market. And get the same results!

At the instance you realize it, you would also be the one who accepts the realities. Eventually, you will move ahead and do the needful to be in the earning club.

“Not Following The Market” You’ve learned forex trading. Well. Beware!

It’s not like driving your new car, and it doesn’t have steadfast results. With the top gear and the right acceleration, there is no guarantee to get the right speed.

While trading, you should listen to the market and adapt yourself to it instead of being stubborn with your ideas. That’s the right way to surf the tides in the forex sea.

“Not Having The Passion” Forex market is not available in common places to fall in love at first sight.

But to be successful and prosper as a trader, one has to develop a real interest in it during learning and executing the knowledge. Otherwise studying the market and analyzing the factors to place your trades would become a tough job. Then quitting in midway is a SURE thing to happen.

“Not Seeing The Reality” In the forex market, success means no 100% win. It’s a combination of ‘WINS’ and ‘LOSSES’, and keeping your losses at a

minimum is the key. All successful traders still incur losses, and (it’s part of the game).

Without realizing it many “newbie traders” set unrealistic expectations and burn their energy down. Be informed, and you should not let a streak of failures to let you down and you should devise your strategies to face the failures.

“Overtrading” Aiming unrealistic high profits, trading addiction, and trading beyond the investment potential led the traders to indulge in overtrading. When you form your trading strategy, you have to take your capital into consideration. Relying on leverage, with the aim of making a big profit, is not advisable as it would eventually lead to the closure of your trading account.

Trade addiction is doing forex trade just for the sake of trading without realizing the need for it. This overtrading, which is incompatible with the capital you have also causes failure.

“Not Having A Proper Forex Plan” Doing forex trade, without a plan is like gambling and incurring a loss is an event to

occur, sooner or later. Then, you should trade with the proper risk-reward ratio, which helps you to approach each trade with the right portion of your capital as an acceptable loss.

Moreover, it further helps you to sustain in the market, and you could make winning trades subsequently.

Happy Trading!

The writer is the CEO of Gold Forex Institute

www.goldforexinstitute.com Call: (+223) 302906626 | Email: customerservice@fxgoldtrading.com GFI services include: Forex training & mentorship for (but not limited to) individuals, hedge fund institutions, and money and asset managers Pro Chart Analysis MAM/ PAMM Premium Signal (With Entry & Exit price) Premium Floor Trading Seminars & Online Webinars

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