THE CATIFOR}.IIA LUMBERMERCHANT

How Lumber Looks

Lumber shipments of 500 mills reporting to the National Lumber Trade Barometer in the week ended November 26 were9.3/o below production; new orders were 0.3/o above; unfilled orders were 32/o of stock. For the year to date, shipments were 0.4/o above production; new orders were 1.0/o below.

For the first time in many weeks, both orders and shipments were over production in the Douglas fir region. West Coast Lumbermen's Association reported for 170 mills (159 operating) in the week ended December.3: production, 112,764,721 feet; shipments, 119,769,932 feet (6.2/o above production) ; orders, 126,063,387 f.eet (t1.8/o above produc-

Stote Scrwlimber Inventory Up

Ukiah, Calif.-California's sawtimber inventory is currently estimated by the U.S. Forest and Range Experiment Station at Berkeley to be 360 billion board feet, more than was reported in any previous survey. All trees, 11 inches or over in diameter, were counted.

tion). For the year to date, however, orders stood 2.9/o and shipme nts 0.7 /o under production'

Western Pine Association reported lot tlZ mills in the week ended November 26: production, 65,671,000 feet; shipments, 62,961,0N feet (4.2/o below production) ; orders, 69,872,@0 feet (6.4/o above production).

Southern Pine Association reported for 106 mills in the week ended November 26 : productron,16,917,000 feet; shipments, 14,186,000 teet (16.14/o below production) ; orders: 14,361,000 feet (l5.ll/o below production).

California Redwood Association reported lor 20 member mills during the month of October: production, SS,OD,M feet; shipments, 54,952,000 feet. Production was 639,000 feet and shipments were 3,033,000 feet ahead of October 1954 but both were below September 1955. Orders on hand October 31 totaled 83,833,000 feet, compared with 59,853,000 feet on the same date last year. Stocks on hand that date totaled 338,249,ffi0 feet, compared to 342,517,OW feet on Oct. 31, 1954. Production and shipments of all species by the reporting mills was greater for October, and for the first ten months of 1955, than for the similar periods last year.

9[4 Billion Construction Ouflook Expected to Breqk 1955 Record

New construction expenditures may reach a record-breaking total of $44 billion in 1956, 5/o above the $42 billion peak indicated for 1955, according to estimates prepared jointly by the Commerce and I-abor Departments. Substantial gains are anticipated in private nonresidential and public construction. New housing, although slightly below this year's volume, is expected to continue at a high level.

The 1956 estimates are based on the assumption of a moderate increase in overall economic activity. They reflect also the tremendous volume of construction now in progress, much of which will be carried over into the new year. Construction costs are expected to continue to rise moderately. Increased plant capacity and rising productivity will prevent all but minor or spot material shortages.

Private construction outlays in 1956 are set slightly above the 1955 total of $30 billion. Public construction, which in recent years has increased steadily but more slowly than private work, is expected to rise I0/o in 1956-to more than $13 billion.

The value of private nonfarm residential construction will remain near the 1955 level of over $16 billion in the coming year. A decrease in the dollar value of new homebuilding will be largely offset by greater outlays for additions and alterations to older homes and for construction of motels and other nonhousekeeping residential units.

Expenditures for new housing will reflect a continuing trend toward larger homes with more quality features, as well as moderately higher construction costs.

Private nonfarm housing starts .in 1956 are estimated at about 1,200,000 units-100,000 fewer than in 1955 and 200,000 less than at the 1950 peak.

Basically, this relatively high level of homebuilding in 1956 results from the wid-espreadr.demand for better housing in prosperous times, a large volume of retirements (demolished, abandoned, or converted units) from the housing supply, as well as from population,i_ncrease and mobility. The expected .1956 decline in housing starts had its origin in the latter part of 1955 when funds becanie relatively scarce for long-term, low down-payment mortgages at low interest rates, thus affecting the financing of homes to be started early next year.

Probable 1956 expenditures of $2-l/4 billion for stores and other service establishments-many in new suburban developntents and along expanding highwa/ networks-are I7/o above the 1955 total and BA/o above that for 1954. A record 9850 million is in prospect for religious buildings in 1956.