\(/hat's Ahead For 1950?

Bv H. V. Simpson, Executive Yice President \Uest Coast Lumbermen's Association

"What's ahead for lumber next year?" That's the question which n early eve ry manufacturer, rvholesaler and retail lumberman is asking as 1949 drarvs to a close.

Here on the West Coast we l.rave experienced unprecedented peacetime demand for the last three year,s. In 1948 our outPut of 9.4 billion feet rvas the largest since 1929. The cut for 1949 will be almost as large. Our order file for 1949 is still ahead of production by some 100 million feet.

We all know what has caused this record demand for lumber. In the last 24 months the nation has built 1,900,000 new homes. Industrial building has been high. Schools and churches and commercial structures have been built by the tens of tl.rousands to take care of expanding population needs. This year more homes will be built thar-r last year's record 930,000. Not since 1925 has there been such an upsurge in home and school construction.

The big question today is how long can this boom housing demand last. The government estimates we rvill build some 850,@0 nerv homes in 1950. Already the plans for school construction for 1950 are huge to care for the war crop of babies now coming of school age. But last year the government estimates on new home starts were far belorv the actual number of homes which got under way, norv believed to be close to one million for 1949. Will they be off, safely lo'iv on the.conservative side for 1950?

Probably the soundest method of evaluating the potential lumber market is to consider the long-haul picture, rather than the single year of 1950. We should evaluate market needs in terms of known factors.

Let's take a look at just one phase of the potential future demand for lumber-the housing market.

There are 34,248,000 ds'ellings in the nation of a nonfarm class. This includes apartment units as well as single homes. For a moment rve should look at these 34 million dwelling units. At least 5,600,000 of them are in need of repair and remodeling to make them conform to minimum healthy living requirements.

In the next ten years at least 520,000 of these dwelling units will be demolished l>y fire, flood, disaster or from other cattse. Betrveen nor,v and 1960 another 1,500,000 will become unusable because of deterioration, poor care and general misuse and old age.

Still another 2 to 3 million farm d'n'ellings will have to be repaired, modernized or enlarged to meet increasing family needs.

During the r.rext decade 6,300,000 neu' homes will have to be built to house the expanding population and to take care of that number of new families 'rvhich rvill form. That means an average of 630,000 homes a Year to take care of minimum nerv family needs alone.

In vie'iv oI these facts, the government's estimate of 850,000 neu' homes next year should not be far wrong. From tl.re standpoint of the lumber industry the backlog of 630,000 neu, homes a year for the next decade to care for population increase only is most encouraging. Whether or not those nerv homes are built in that volume will depend to a great extent on the general prosperity of the nation, our ability to maintain high employment and high income. A glance at the pitiable ferv homes built in the 1930's, with the all time low year of 1933 rvhen only 93,000 new homes were built in the entire nation demonstrates the close tie-in betw'een the light construction industry and general prosperity of our peoPle.

Factors beyond our control in the lumber manufacturing business rvill largely determine rvhether the above goals will be ieached, and will determine as u'ell the volume of consumption of lumber for industrial and commercial uses. There are factors which we do control rvhich are important

(Continued on Page 44)