EDITORIAL

The Outlook for 1966

THE STRENGTHENING OF retail sales in buildr ing materials and lumber bv dealers in D"""-f,"r, plus a slight firming up oi lumber markets in general during the last month of 1965 all seem to point to an improved year in 1966, if. usually reliable indicators and our own spot survey checks can be believed.

But throughout all the predictions, there seems to be a note of unspoken caution. Voices of confidence are heard, but they herald neither a big, nor an easy rise in profits. Mostly the forecasters see a modest rise, a few percent, and that in certain sectors, not across the board. But these are increases nevertheless, and they should make welcome read' ing to an industry that has seen more than its share of fiscal grief.

On the merchandising end, no less of a market master than Austin T. Cushman, board chairman of Sears, Roebuck & Co., says, "the first half of the year ahead looks good in spring 1966, I would expect the general merchandise distributors of the nation to secure sales gains of from five to six percent." His remarks assumed, he noted, that there would be no change in the Vietnam War.

In construction, James W. Walter, board chairman of the Jim Walter Corp., foresees that 'othe construction industry has reason to be optimistic about the general outlook fior 1966."

The softwood lumber industry should enjoy an increase of about five percent, according to Wendell B. Barnes of the Western Wood Products Association. Roughly similar advances are predicted for the hardwood sector of the business. Barnes also pointed to an expected residential construction increase of from three to five percent, while noting that one-third of the softwood output goes into new homes and fourteen percent more is utilized in modernizing old homes.

Other favorable factors ior 1966 in the $20 bilIion housing industry are the Housing Act of 1965 and other government activities such as the new Department of Housing and Urban Development plus the soaring marriage rate and growth areas in non-residential construction.

But while optimism is heard in some quarters, pessimism still sounds its haunting note. Stock market seers note that the market has risen unbroken since 1962. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith, the nation's largest stock brokerage house, have warned their customers that these things do not go on forever and to avoid speculative issues. The government's official line is unbounded optimism and confidence, but then so was President H@ver's, just before the market went on its ear in 1929.

While there is little doubt that the continued prosperity increases the mathematical chances of a dip, strong economic factors still swing to forecasts favoring a slight increase for 1966. Caution, as alwavs. is needed as to direction and amount for next -year, but on the whole it looks as if 1966 will be a better year than its predecessor.

NewMonfhly Column

It is with great pleasure that we can again announce that we have another regular monthly column written by the manager of a dealer or' sanization.

Ross Kincaid, the energetic executive vice presi' dent of the Western Retail Lumbermen's Association, begins his authorship oI Northwest News on page forly of this issue. It is the latest step in_our expand' ing news and feature coverage in the Great North' west.

His first column deals with the upcoming regional trade show that the W'estern Retail Lumbermen's Association is sponsoring. The Exposition, set for the fourth and fifth of February in Portland, Oregon, will be a jam-packed exhibit of products, ideas, techniques, and equipment all keyed to that most admirable of themes: Profit.

To Ross Kincaid: a hearty Welcome Aboard!

BY BUILDERS

BY "WEEK-END CONTRACTORS''

ARCH

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