Steady grovuth in next entury

By H. A. Roberts President Western Wood Products Association

n NE SURE bet is that the need V for western lumber will continue to grow into the next century. Continuing the trend that began as the industry emerged from the economic recession of the early '80s, production in the l2state Western Woods Region will hit (including estimates for 1989 and forecasts for 1990) its fifth consecutive year of over 2l billion board feet annual production.

No precedent foi that record exists in the history of this country. It demonstrates both the unrelentine demand for wood products in th6 markets of the United States and the world and the ability of the western lumber industry to deliver.

Story at a Glance

lf the logs are there, western lumber production will remain strong wilh22billion bf in 1990.

In the first year of the next decade, while we no doubt will be faced with pockets of shortages, it appears enough timber will be available to allow western lumber producers to meet most of the expected demand. If the logs are there, we forecast 1990 lumber production to top 22 billion board feet.

For the most part, it appears that the logs will be there in the shorter term. After preservationists used the spotted owl to bring many federal timber sales programs to a sputter during 1989, Congress provided breathing room with release legislation to get sales back on track for the short term. While raw materials from other sources make up about half of current western lumber producer requirements, especially in the Pacific Northwest, this relief was impera- tive. At this writing, there are numerous unknowns and details to be finalized in this relief action. but an industry unified by the rising emergency has demonstrated its ability to bring stability to a pendulum which had swung to the side of the preservationists. Things will go better in the coming year.

But 1990 will be remembered not for the interim timber-for-products relief in Washington, D.C. Instead, history will record it as the opening year of a decade when new federal timber supply plans finally are hammered out for the ensuing decades. These will leave indelible marks on the western lumber producing industry and all forest products. The preservationist pressures will play a major role in the results. Plans will be hard to come by to provide genuine multiple-use for the nation's federal forests including product manufacturine.

The western lumber industrv has faith in the outcome of forest resource developments during the coming year and the decade beyond. We trust that sanity will prevail. We trust the nation's federal forests will continue to include lands managed for timber-for-products production in their mission statements as well as other multiple uses. We have faith that eventually specific segments of federal forestlands will b-e permanently designated for production, just as they are being designated for wilderness and other non-production uses.

Our faith supports our objectives. But it will take an action-oriented, aggressive industry to achieve them (exactly what is developing at national, regional and local levels). That industry drive to take command of its destiny is perhaps the most important trend to watch in the I 990s.