Lots of changes ahead

By Harry A. Merlo Chairman and President Louisiana-Pacifi c Corporation

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Pacific to what changes our industry might expect by the Year 2000. It's clear to us that there will be major differences in the way we'll all do business by the turn of the century.

For example, there will be fewer new homes built as population growth slows and the so-called "babv boomers" enter middle age. But, there will be increasing opportunities to those who concentrate on the move-up buyers with a desire for quality and an eye out for affordable ways to achieve that quality. We're already seeing the start of this trend. It's a healthymovetoward building homes "better than thev have to be," spurred in part by a renewed emphasis on quality and partly by an increased threat of litigation if things go wrong. The American Plywood Association has formalized the trend with its new "Code Plus" program. Repair, remodeling and the do-ityourself markets will take on even more importance. In the structural panel area, for example, the Ameri- can Plywood Association figured that we can increase demand by more than a billion feet by persuading another four percent of U.S. households to purchase panels at least once a year.

More homes in the Year 2000 will be built, at least partially, in a factory. While predictions along these lines have been made beflore, there's a new wrinkle factory manufacturing will be applied to upscale homes.

There will be mandatory recycling in many areas by the Year 2000. We expect that necessary trend to provide us with a stable source of aluminum for our window and door products and waste paper for the fiber gypsum wallboard we're currently developing in Nova Scotia. The largest remaining forest that has absolutely no environmental problems, spotted owl or otherwise, is wastepaper.

On the resource side, all signs point toward a sharp decrease in the amount of available timber and a sharp increase in the political constraints on harvesting, even on our own timberlands. Even more of our national forests will be off limits to timber harvesting as preservationists lake increasing advantage of the forum provided by the courts. Products that rely on old growth will be at an increasing disadvantage compared to products, like L-P InnerSeala which are made from "iunk wood" species. Wide dimension lumber for floor and ceiling joists will be replaced almost totally by engineered trusses - another big market for our Inner-Seal panels.

Story at a Glance

More factory built homes, mandatory recycling willaid supply, fewer timber resources, more eng ineered products, expanded world trade.

Finally, there will be fewer trade restrictions by 2000, especially with Pacific Rim partners, and more world trade generally. That's both an opportunity and a challenge, since we'll all be up against some stiff worldwide competition. L-P is gear- ing up now with more overseas marketing,more new product development and manufacturing expansion into Canada and Mexico. We're looking forward to some exciting years for our industry as we approach the new century.