Strong western market in'82

By Thomas R. Ingham, Jr. Vice President:Marketing Simpson Timber Co.

IJOME- ford a median priced home when mortgage interest rates are at 150/0, it's no wonder starts have dried up!

It's our feeling that mortgage interest rates will have to be in the l39o to l4t/o range before homebuilding resumes healthy levels. That may not happen until 1984, given the credit crunch in this country.

Flbuilding

in the west will improve much better in 1982 than in any other region in the country. That's welcome news indeed for all of us dependent on the home-building segment of our. economy.

Simpson is forecasting a 3l9o increase in Western starts, from 28,000 units this year to 325,000 in 1982. That compares to a 12.6s/o increase nationally, 6.890 in the south, 8.390 in the northeast and 9.790 in the north central. Nationally, we see starts moving up from 1,155,000 in l98l to possibly 1,300,000 next year.

Another bright spot in 1982 will be an even stronger market for remodeling and repair of existing homes. We look for a9.6s/o increase to a total of