BETTER TIMES

(Continued frorn page 9) believe high prices mean an end of the dream of home ownership, or the prosperity of the building products industry. We think now is the time to build for better times through better service, better skills, better markets.

We will enjoy some very good housing years in the West during the 1980s. Three million more people will move to the l3-state region than leave in the next eight years. Four million new households will be formed there. And the number of Westerners age 35-44 will nearly double.

These people will demand shelter. And I am confident ways will be found to supply it. Already we are seeing smaller homes (median house size has fallen 60 sq. ft. in the past two years) and fewer detached homes; less than 6090 last year compared to nearly three-quarters in 1975. Cluster homes sharing a common wall, along with plumbing and electrical wiring, and tandem houses, shared by two families, are becoming more popular.

Manufactured housing seems about to realize its potential, too. In the past several years, the value of manufactured housing has appreciated as fast as the value of conventional housing. Restrictive zoning ordinances have been repealed in many Western communities. Financial institutions have grown more sophisticated in serving mobile home buyers.

But the West's best source of shelter for the 1980s will be the region's existing housing stock. Rising costs of new construction and high mortgage rates are great incentives to remodel or rehabilitate homes. This makes the tract houses of the 1960s and 1970s prime candidates for renovation and additions during the '80s.

We think the residential-repair market will outperform residential construction during the rest of the decade. And we think it will be less prone to wide swings in demand. Nationally, sales should grow l29o in 1982 to $58 billion, reaching $65 billion in 1983.

A larger share of this work will be performed by do-it-yourselfers, partly because of a spirit of self-reliance on the part of American homeowners and partly because of rising labor costs. Sales of lumber, plywood, paneling and gypsum products in particular should benefit from this trend.

Often the do-it-yourselfer will team up with professional remodelers to complete harder iobs.

But we need not restrict our marketing effort to residential construction. Georgia-Pacific Registered Dealers are having great success selling building products to agriculture, a $25 billion industry in the West during 1981.

For years, farmers have been plagued by overproduction and uncertain prices. But the world's rapidly growing population, world population will grow 50 percent by the year 20fi), means all of the West's food-growing capacity will be needed to meet the demand, particularly to the Pacific Rim. We think domestic agriculture sales will grow at a steady 290 annual rate during the 1980s. Export sales will grow four times as fast.

Farmers have become a dependable market for lumber and other building products; a more important market each year.

Sure, our industry is in a trough of hard times. But we know the 1980s will emerge as the best, most profitable and most exciting time building products suppliers have ever known.

Diesel Fuel Price Way Up

If the present trend for higher diesel fuel prices continues, diesel trucks and tractors may drop their key economic advantage, according to the authoritative Lundberg Letter.

For the first time since'79, the cheapest gasoline costs less than diesel fuel. The trend is likely to continue because of competition among those marketing gasoline.

FinancialFrailty

Only three of the top 25 industrial companies in the U.S. in 1909 are still included in the top 25 today. General Ele.ctric, U.S. Steel, and Standard Oil of New Jersey are the survivors.

Geodesic Dome Home

(Continued from page 46) interior floor plan. A dome home has no support walls to restrict the designer's imagination. Interior walls can be placed almost anywhere one desires. western states possess nine areas contained in the top 20 metropolitan growth regions of the country making it evident that our "market share" of national housing activity will affect us favorably. To this should be added the "ripple effect" of the areas surrounding these major growth areas.

The most commonly purchased sizes are the 39- and 45ft. domes, allowing for 1,500 and2,20O ft. of floor space. But don't expect to pay less for a finished dome home than for a rectangular house. Prices are comparable, minus the utility and inaintenance cost savings bf a geodesic home. However, those same savings are reasons why the dome can be a home with greater potential for increased resale value. Geodesic living can provide an attractive solution to a housing squeeze that grows worse each year.

But perhaps those of you who are in lumber distribution should concern yourselves less with building starts than with the exploration and development of opportunities that relate to markets other than new housing. If we consider that roughly half the lumber consumed goes into new housing it will open the mind to capitalizing on marketing and management strategies that involve the non-housing areas of the overall market. Consideration could be given to:

(1) Expanding outreach into the remodeling sector.

(2) Developing a salesbasein noncyclical industrial usages of lumber and allied oroducts.

(4)

(s)

(6)

Introduction of new products or species that are customeroriented as a source of profit and movement.

Eliminating those portions of your product mix that have low rates of turnover and margins.

Generating more sale effectiveness in your staff through better sales training and the use of incentives.

Studying trends closely to be ready for the upcoming action market of the mid '80s.

Assuring his friends of continued service, Paul extends his sincere thanks and best wishes for the coming year.