Lumber

By Alfred X. Baxter* President National Forest Products Association

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lumber consumption during most of 1973 rolled along at a pace close to the record set in 1972, tdespitetightening mortgage credit. But the outlook for 1974 is much different. When the economy reaches a turning point, as it did in the second halfof 1973, predictions of softwood and other wood products consumption for the coming year become more speculative.

Story at a Glance

Though much uncertainty hinges on housing, availability of mortgage funds in '74 will be better than '70, worse than'72 ... shipments and production of both hardwoods and softwoods will decline.

struction during 1973, however, helped to sustain the lumber market.

The uncertainty of availability of mortgage funds and a softening in the housing market notwithstanding, it can be said, in general, that the market for softwood lumber in 1974 will not be as bright as in 1972 nor as bad as it was in 1970.

Housing starts in 1974 are expected to total 1,700,000 units, compared with an estimated 2,100,000 in 1973 and the record 2,380,000 of 1972.

Non-residential construction has been rising steadily and should continue upward in the new year. [t is estimated that the outlay in 1974 should reach $51.3 billion (in 1967 dollars) as against $49.3 billion in 1973 and $46.6 billion in 1972. A third factor in softwood lumber consumption is manufacturing activity. Using 1967 activity as an index of 100, the level ofsuch activity should rise to 128 in 1974, compared with I24 in 1973 and 114.3 in 1972.

On the basis of these three variables, it is projected that softwood lumber consumption for 1973 will be 37.9 billion board feet, declining in 1974 to 34 billion board feet. The record year, 1972, saw softwood lumber consumption reach 40 billion board feet.

CONSERVATIVE?

hardwood lumber in 1974 should reach about 6.8 billion board feet, down from an estimated 7. I billion board feet in 1973 and 7.7 billion board feet in 1972.

A decrease in shipments of softwood plywood from 18.6 billion square feet in 1973 to 17.3 billion in 1974 is anticipated, also resulting from the expected decline in housing starts.

Looking ahead further, the remainder of the 1970s will be a crucial time for applying measures to assure future timber supply while protecting and enhancing the quality of the forest environment.

This point is made forcefully in the recent report of the President's Advisory Panel on Timber and the