The price of lumber next month

THE price of lum'ber and plywood is always a good r topic for discussion and there are rwo excellent publications (Random Lengths and Crous) that operate as market repgrting sery,ices to relate weekly the current changes and sliifts in prices, futures and other market factors.

Another prrblication takes the need for price information in a different direction and forecasts swings in lumber and plywood prices coming in the future.

. "Swings i1 nlces can be foreseen and we've been doing it for some time," insists Charles E. .oChuck,' young publ lioher of Young's Forecasts of Portland, Oregon. Heieiates that in their first four yearso April '68-'22, there were 22 swings of $5 per thousand or nrore in dimension lumber prices and that the weekly called the turn on l? of the swings_ before they started, using a specially developed method_ of analyzing weekly demand and supply figuies.

-Charles E. Young is a Phi Beta Kappa-graduate of Northwestern University, where he majored in statisticso economics and marketing. In his 33 years of experience as a business economist, f,e has been director of Jatistical research for Westinghouse Electric, v.p. of the Econo. rnetric Institutg director of product and price analysis for Ford Motor Coa corporate economisi for W'eyerhaeuser Co., director of economic services and market research for the W'estern Wood Products Assn. and finally, publisher' oI Young's Forecasts.

Some years agq he began investigating how industry statistics could be used to measure the shifts in demand and- supply that obviously underlie price movements in lumber and plywood. Although price change reflect individual actions by buyers and sellers, it is his conviction that these individuals act in response to market pressures -that can be measured and predicted.

DE/\,IAND.SUPPIY CHARTS

These charts show how tlle demand for lumber and qlywood swings above and below the available supply. Demand is measured by new orders placed with ttr" millr, and supply by rnill production, as reported each week by the industry trade associations. When unfilled orders ai the mills become unusually large, this fact is also taken into account. Similar charts are also presented for inland (western pine) Iumber, southern pine lumber and sanded plywood.

If yorl "run with the crowd,, of lumber and plywood buyers, -Y-oung observes, you are likely to buy near the peaks of these chartg when orders are heaviest and mill prices are !igh9sr. At the Iow points of the chartg most bu.yers are likely to be holding bacl on orders to see if prices will go still lower.

.The -weekly strives to provide the opportunity to know yh.T,rh: low points of_these swings h.o" b""o passed_ the ideal time to buy. It also attempts to show when the

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Howard Gatewood, secty., National Hardwood Lumber Assn.; and Gordon Frmt, Frost Hardwood, Sar Dieco. (middle row) Dean Trumbo, M. Trumbo Co,, Portland; Jim Spellman, Spellman Hardwood, Phomix; Lyall Bell, Sauder Industries, Vancouver; Roy Slanton, Jr., E. J.-Stanton & Sons, Inc., LA"; Bill MacBeath, MacBeath Hardwood, San Framiscq Al Frost,

Frpst Hardwood, S. D.; Dick Quarg, Forsyth Hardwood, S. F.; Bill Fahs, Calif. Panel & Veneer, L.A.; Jim Higgins, J. E. Higgins Lumber Co,, S. F.; and Mac MacBeath, MacBeath Hardumod, Berkeley. Oack rcw) Len Hall, Lumber Products, Portland; Bud Radditz, J. E. Higgins Lumber, Union Cityi Bob King, Mercury Hardwood, L.A.; Bill Sa,uder, Sauder Industries, Vancouver; Murray MacKenzie, Sauder Industries, Van.; .lerry Lapin, Mercury Hardwood, L.A.; Jack Higgins, J. E. Higgins, S.F.; Don Reel, Reel Lumber Service, L.A.; Bud Baker, Baker Hardwood Lumbs Co., S.0.; and Jim Sullivan, retired, Sullivan Hardwood, S.D.