WP

Both in the fonnal member meetings and in the infonnal gatherings of others who traditionally attend the spring meeting, the mood concerning timber was grim. Horror forecasts on supply and price fronts as the industry struggles to live and work in a changed world were voiced.

Robert Hunt, president of the Western Wood hoducts Association, warned of a stormy outlook for western timber supply and its potential to create volatility in lumber markets. He said 1994 should see gains in housing shrts and other traditional wood markets, thanks to a slowly expanding economy. But continued gridlock on public

ST. FRANCIS L0BBY clock replica & WWPA's (1) Butch Bemhadt. (2) Associalion oflicsrc John Shelh Jim Coslello. (3) Gayle Monison, Tom Lovlien, Robetl Shepherd. (4) Tom Marin, Ken LoBue, Don Reagan, Ridrard Phillips. (5) Dan Woher, Dr. Slan Rhodes. (5) Craig &oady, Stew Sdrmitt. (D Frank Bennett, Bretl Bennetl. (8) Ron Titton, Phil Dodson, (9) Bruce Kelly, Dave Baker, Pete forests in the West will force Western lumber producers to further scale back production, disrupting raditional lumber market supply and demand relationships.

"Some have blamed the industry for the higher prices, but recent Western lumber production statistics illusuate the sinmtion: there are sirnply not enough logs available to meet long-tern demand," Hunt explained.

He said Westem lumber shipments to U.S. markets in 1994 should total 15.93 billion board feet 8.37o below 1993 figures, despite an expected

8.9Vo increase in housing stafis this year. That volume will be off.30Vo from historic levels of 22.4 billion

Story at a Glance

Market volatility forecast at lumber manufacturers' meeting new desert venue for spring gathering ... housing starts, lumber consumption and prices expected to rise.

feet of western production set during 1985-89.

The 1993 decline in Western lunber production has affected prices paid by lumber users.

statistics show Douglas fir lumber sold for an average of $535 per thousand board feet in January, 35Vo higher than a year ago and $234 more than in January 1992. Other Western species have seen similar increases. Ponderosa pine reached $787 per

WWPA Spring Meeting

( Cont inue d fr orn prn iou s pa ge ) thousand board feet in January, up $130 in just one year.

Hunt said higher prices and the changing timber supply have led some to criticize the quality of lumber available today. That criticism has no basis in fact he claimed.

"Those who buy Westem lumber today can be assured it will meet or exceed the performance standards required for such products. The lock-up of mature federal forests has reduced the amount of 'clear' products available, but at the same time led to increased percentages of products most specified in construction, such as Standard and Better," said Hunt.

"Westem producers remain committed to providing quality products to their customers. Those buyers who feel the lumber is not graded correc0y have a nunber of options available, from talking with the mill to calling a reinspection by grading agencies such as WWPA," he said.

WWPA's forecast for 1994 predicts lumber consumption will lotal

46.33 billion board feet, up 0.5Vo from 1993. Housing starts should total 1.4 million, compared to 1.29 million last year. While housingwhich consumes nearly 40Vo of the lumber used annually - will be up nealy 107o, the lumber volume used here will grow by just one-third that rate. Much of that is due to curtailed log supplies, lumber substitutes and slightly smaller houses.

The decline in Western lumber shipments will be in contrast with srong gains by mills in the South and imports. The South is expected to ship 15.1 billion feet in 1994, an increase of 5.9Vo. Imports, mostly from Canada, hit an all-time record volume in 1993 ar 15.26 billion feet. The volume of imports should grow another 4Vo this year to 15.85 billion board feet" representing a third of the lumber used in the U.S.

U.S. exports of both logs and lumber should see declines in 1994. WIMPA estimates lumber exports will decline ll.6%o to 2.1 billion feet Log exports, at 1.9 billion feet, will shrink by about 157o. The volume of logs exported from U.S. pofts has fallen by more than half in the past five years.

SPOR|IS SHIRT CASUAL: (1) Bill Cunie, Eric Bonnor, Bobby Hill. (2) GaryTragesser, John Branstetler, Jim Murray. (3) Dean Johnson, Randy James. (4) Mike Mackin. (5) Bob Pelow, Shelley Hershberger, Mike Phillips. (6) Bob Hunt. (7) Barry & Linda Schneider, Ed Langley, Jay Orendorff, John Souza. (8) Bruce Kelly, Dave Buf6, Rich Graham. (9) Ed Dachtler, Dennis Richardson, Wayne Holm, Bob Downey, (10) Mike Young Frank Pharr, Mike Johnson. (11) Jim Hand, Mondo Chavez, Gene Pietila. (12) Peter Murphy, John Murphy, Bicn Bilby, Terry Powell. (13) Dennb Moroz, Cathrine Martin, David Phelps, (14) Kent Duysen, Doug Hanson, Jack Manin. (15) Mike & Shirley Young, Ralph Cardwell, Scott Cardwell, Bick Bobbins. (16) Guy Harper, Carol & Don Mitchell. (17) Tony Gallagher, Rick Steers, Dan Burdetl. (18) Kory Kautman, Dick Lyons, Kurt Kaufman. (19) Peter Landory, Joe Hendry. (20) Bob Handegard. (21)Rita Poe, Gene Wahers.

Michael Flarmery, gtoup vice president, wood products division, Pope & Talbot, Portland, Or., was elected chairman; James D. Costello, Fibreboard Wood Products Co., Standard, Ca., first vice chafunan, and John C. Bender, Boise Cascade Corp., Boise, Id., second vice chairman. Robert H. Hunt was re-elected as president.

This year's meeting was held March 8-11. The fall meeting will be at the Westin La Paloma, Tucson, Az. Next year's spring meeting will renrrn to the St. Francis Hotel, March 14-17. The 1995 fall meeting will be at the Portland Maniott, Portland, Or., Sept 10-13. The 19!)6 spring meeting will retum to the La Quinta Resorl