cast: Smooth sailing for'98

By Karl W. Lindberg President Southem Forest Products Association

SEAS ROLL. On a given day.

\)Saddam Hussein will risk miscalculation and much of the world will edge toward the precipice of a devastating war. Asian economies and financial centers will have a nervous breakdown and threaten to unhinge the U.S. stock market, placing part of our economy in peril. The Fed will succumb to an itchy trigger finger and finally nudge up interest rates. Trade disputes will erupt and settle. Several political storms will rage in an election year. And yet, the voyage for most businesses in America next year will be perceived as fairly smooth sailing, endangered only by occasional squalls and rocky shoals.

Final

Production Figures

for 1997 (should)register in the 15,8 to 15.9 billion bd. ft. range-setting another modern day record

Business as usual in 1998. Hard work rewarded. Problems encountered. Opportunities available for those with true grit and gumption.

Americans have for several years now enjoyed an incomparably good economy, marked by steady growth, plenty of jobs and minuscule inflation. As we turn into a new year, there is no reason to project anything but a continuation of that good fortune-nor any reason to be tenibly surprised if events go off the deep end. But we think it will be a good year for busiNCSS.

Not a bad year for the wood products industry, either. As with any industry, we face major problems, and must take steps to solve them. As is abundantly clear, the wood products industry will be resource driven, as the cost of raw material continues to be of greater concern than its availability. The well-intentioned but sometimes mindless environmental constraints placed on timber supply from the West are still in force. That's shifted the industry's center to the South, which has an available resource base, and is heeding the cry: "Plant trees!"

Of course, a seedling planted tomorrow won't become a merchantable tree for many, many years. So for 1998, the southem pine lumber industry in particular must learn how to survive, indeed thrive, by using younger, smaller trees in a business environment of rising stumpage prices. That's an enornous challenge. It demands new efficiency, new technology, new marketing.

Members of the Southern Forest Products Association, who produce southern pine lumber in a dozen states throughout the South, look to their association for assistance. One solution, of course, is to turn out valueadded specialty products such as MSR "Prime Grades," millwork or furniture stock that will bring higher returns. Such end uses must be cultivated by the association's marketing efforts so that ready demand is manifested in the marketplace.

Another solution is to continue developing market sectors that imported wood species and non-wood substitutes such as plastic and steel compete poorly against-such as pressure treated southern pine, and the inherent strength advantages of southern pine in structural applications.

Southern pine lumber manufacturers are expecting final production figures for 199'1 to register in the 15.8 to 15.9 billion bd. ft. range-setting another modern day record. They look at 1998 and expect another total in the 15 billion bd. ft. range-probably a bit lower, but that's quite high.

The new year before us is truly a blank page. It is thus receptive to those who are ready to greet fresh challenges with hard-wrought, innovative solutions. Certainly there will be choppy seas to sail. But for those who are up to the trip, and willing to earn with effort the rewards, the new year truly offers happy sailing.