BUSINESS FORECAST

12

1.37 million starts antinipated-

14 Slouter tempo utith only modcst gtputth

Fewer young adults will requirc ncw lnuses

Retoilcrs could prcfit_ftpm wid.er ueeptutce of EDI

Improued inuentory and, cash nwnagenunt is possible

Enginqgted lumber prduote will grcut 3O% ta I40%

Lack of knowlcdge uill be biggest deterrent to th.eir use

Retoilerc utorned tbt must imptpve technolopy uee Ray Nunn installed as presi.d,ent at 77th annual in-1qns

Soutlern Forcct Ptd.uats Assn.'t ettnttol ncetins

Loute's u.p. focuses on clnrryirry dernographics, spend,{rry

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Cedcrr Products

markets in 13 Southern states

Editorial

D.l.Y! business foleeasting

Inside this issue some of the top people in our field offer their expert forecast for 1994 and beyond. On this page, we invite everyone to doit-yourself: try your own hand at b'reaching the veil that hides the future from us.

An obvious starting point is to take today's world and extrapolate it into the future. While helpful, this inevitably neglects the interferenoe of outside forces that can radically change the business environment. So the good forecaster ne€ds to consider what likely critical future issues affect him u her and the company and then try to guess what developnents could affect the forecast

Technology plays a big role here. Just as the fax has had a major effect upon business practices, so too will interactive technology, we suspocL As it quickens and expands communication at wort, it's likely to change Oe way America lives at home. And that means what people buy with their disposable income and how they spend their time could drastically change. All this implies Oat strong sellers in today's inventory may well fall from favor.

DAVID CUTLER publisher

In forecasting the next quarter or the next year, spocific goals are achieveable. Beymd tbat tbe forecaster needs to cballenge cmventioal thinking, think the unthinkable, be alert to cultural changes in society that, like int€f,rctive technology, can turn today's situation upside down. Sometines the generalist does bett€r in long range forecasting because of the wide soope of lmowledge and interest brougbt to the puzde. Today's inconsequential frcta can quiclly becme tonarow's major mo{ratqin. Tbe reverse is true and often the change from one to the other is brief. Thongh its effects can linga.

Ask younelf, if I were the orstomer, is th€re any possible reason, no nauer how far-fetche4 why I night in five years change my prcsent pattern of buying? If not" why not? Here's where you need to prod your imagination, intuition, memory and that part of you brain that causes you to hear-hings that go bump in the nigbl

Many make forecasting an ongoing process, continuously monioring edy waming signs. It's one habit that can put money in you po*er