Can western lumber meet the demand?

II|IIOLESALERS and retailers

UU expect tro s€e imprcved marlcets for lumber in 1993 as tbe U.S. econo. my continues in a slow rccovery, but some wonder if westem mills will be able o satisfy the demand.

"Yes," is tbe response from the Western Wood hoducts Association. Tbe region expects to remain the major U.S. lunber supplier, poviding ovtr a third of the demand.

Western mills should provide 36% of the lumber used in the U.S. next year despite a projectod 2.1% pncdluction drop. The 12 west€rn states are forecast to produce 18.21 billion board feet.

Production in the South, by comparison, is predicted to increase 6.170 to 14.& billion feet Lumber imports, mostly from Canada should increase 8.8Vo to 14.35 billion feet.

"1993 will mark the third straight year westem mills will see production decline due to tinber supply problems," noted association president Robert H. Hunt. "The reasons for the guarded western outlook continue to be resource base4 with no immediate solution on the horizon."

Yet even with questions about timber supply, Hunt said western mills can be counted on as chief lumber suppliers.

"The constant resource lock-ups and new endangered and threatened species announcements by the courts have lately led to a perception on the part of some of our customers that we don't have products for sale,n he said. "However, the West will continue to supply a major share of the lumber used in 193. If the indusry ever gers some relief on its many log supply problens, you can expect a good fight from western mills to take back some of the market share."

WWPA estimated U.S. demand for lumber should increase by 3.5Vo in 1993, reaching 46.24 billion board feet. This would be the highest since 1989, when 48 billion board feet was used.

Housing will be the top market for lumber in 1993, with 16.03 billion board feet expected to be used in residential construction. That volume is

4.3% bigber than expected 1992 tooab.

Housing surts for 1993 are forecast at 1.25 million, a 7 .8% increase from this year's pojectod l.16 million starts. Single family homes should continue to dominate housing. A record 84% of bousing starts are expected to be single family homes tlis year. Tbat share should drop just sligbtty in 1993. Single family homes increase lumber consumption, using more lumber tban multi-fanrily units with an average of more than 14,000 board feet of lumber per home.

After growing to the largest market by volume in 1990 and 1991, repair and remodeling should slip back into tbe No. 2 position n 1992 and 1993. Lumber use in this martet is forecast to increase 34o ro 14.86 billion feet next year, representing 32Vo of the lumber used.

Story at a Glance

West can supply 360lo of U.S. lumber demand In 1993 ...Southern and Canadian mllls may llll vold ... log sup ply rellef could Increase antlclpated productlon of 14.86 bllllon feet.

Other construction, mostly office, retail and hotel sEuctures, is predicted to increase by 3.2Vo fo 7.12 billion feet. Lumber used in materials handling should increase by 3.2Vo to 4.2 billion feet. The "all other" qrtegory, at 4 billion feet, accounts for the balance of U.S. consumption. Exports in 1992 should total2.65 billion, down 7.4Vo from the previous year. Exporrs in 1993 are forecast at 2.7 billion, a l.9Vo nqease,

Commenting on price, Hunt said prices for lumber have increased modestly since last spring, but when adjusted for inflation and in comparison to non-wood products "the price of lumber is still a grea.t bargain."