Modelling of conspicuity-related motorcycle accidents in seremban and shah alam

Page 1

Accid. Anal. and Prev., Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 325-332, 1996 Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved OOOl-4575/96 SlS.00 + 0.00

Pergamon oool-4575(95)ooo71-2

MODELLING OF CONSPICUITY-RELATED MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS IN SEREMBAN AND SHAH ALAM, MALAYSIA RADIN

UMAR

R.S1,

MURRAY

G.

MACKAY~

and

BRIAN

L. HILLS~

‘Accident Research Unit, Universiti Pertanian Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Malaysia; ‘Accident Research Centre, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, England; 3Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berks., England (Accepted 2 November 1995)

Abstract-Preliminary analysis of the short-term impact of a running headlights intervention revealed that there has been a significant drop in conspicuity-related motorcycle accidents in the pilot areas, Seremban and Shah Alam, Malaysia. This paper attempts to look in more detail at conspicuity-related accidents involving motorcycles. The aim of the analysis was to establish a statistical model to describe the relationship between the frequency of conspicuity-related motorcycle accidents and a range of explanatory variables so that new insights can be obtained into the effects of introducing a running headlight campaign and regulation. The exogenous variables in this analysis include the influence of time trends, changes in the recording and analysis system, the effect of fasting activities during Ramadhan and the “Balik Kampong” culture, a seasonal cultural-religious holiday activity unique to Malaysia. The model developed revealed that the running headlight intervention reduced the conspicuity-related motorcycle accidents by about 29%. It is concluded that the intervention has been successful in improving conspicuity-related motorcycle accidents in Malaysia. Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd Keywords-Motorcycle

accidents, Conspicuity,

Running headlights, Generalized linear modelling dents, were found to have dropped significantly (p<O.O05) after the campaign, based of accident figures 6 months before and 6 months after the intervention. In an attempt to evaluate the long-term impact of the RHL intervention, a more detailed analysis of the accident series has been carried out, using a generalized linear modelling technique (McCullagh and Nedler 1983). In recent years, this modelling technique has become a popular tool for the analysis of road accident data. The popularity of generalized linear models is primarily due to their statistical advantages. If before-and-after studies involve more than a single site or single period of time, for example, then the generalized linear modelling methodology provides a convenient way of analysing the data. Use of generalized linear model allows, in turn, the incorporation of dummy variables representing the influence of interventions to traffic accidents. The effectiveness of a scheme, a, can be estimated, together with the appropriate statistics for significance testing or for estimating confidence intervals (Maycock and Summersgill 1994). In addition to calculation of the effectiveness, a, in the context of a statistical model,

INTRODUCTION Nearly 60% of all vehicles in Malaysia are motorcycles. As a consequences, casualties among motorcyclists form the largest portion of the traffic injury problem. In 1992 alone, a total number of 39,272 motorcycles were reported to have been involved in traffic accidents resulting in 24,264 injuries (RMP 1992). Out of a total of 4557 fatalities and 31,705 serious and slight injuries throughout the country in 1992, approximately 51% (2307 cases) of all fatalities and 69% (21,957 cases) of all casualties were motorcycle riders and pillion passengers. In July 1992, a nationwide “daytime running headlight” intervention (RHL) was introduced. This intervention consists of a 3 month safety campaign, followed by the compulsory RHL regulation in September 1992. The aim of this programme was to improve motorcycle conspicuity and thus reduce accidents. Preliminary analysis of the short-term impact of the RHL intervention (Radin et al. 1995) revealed that there had been a sizeable drop in multipledaytime motorcycle accidents in two pilot study areas, Seremban and Shah Alam. Conspicuity-related acci325


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.
Modelling of conspicuity-related motorcycle accidents in seremban and shah alam by Guia Buenas Practicas Motocicletas - Issuu