economic DASHBOARD
US Manufacturing Recovery Stalls in October German and UK Manufacturers Register Strong Improvement in November ISM® reported a U.S. Manufacturing PMI® of 46.7 percent in November matching the same figure in October. The stagnant readings for both months halted a three-month uptrend from July through September that seemed to show U.S. manufacturing on track to move above the 50 percent mark before year-end.
registered 45.8 percent, down one percentage point from the 46.8 percent reported in October.
According to the report issued by Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM® Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, demand remains soft and production is slightly down compared to October as U.S. companies continue to manage outputs, material inputs and labor costs. The overall economy continued in contraction for a second month after one month of weak expansion preceded by nine months of contraction and a 30-month period of expansion before that. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 48.3 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.5 percent recorded in October. The Production Index reading of 48.5 percent is a 1.9-percentage point decrease compared to October’s figure of 50.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.9 percent, up 4.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 45.1 percent in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 39.3 percent, 2.9 percentage points lower than the October reading of 42.2 percent. The Employment Index
“Suppliers continue to have capacity. Sixty-five percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in November, down from 75 percent in October,” says Fiore. “More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 54 percent in November, compared to 35 percent in October and six percent in September. Three of the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP were at or below 45 percent, same as the previous month.”
US SECTOR REPORT ISM® GROWTH SECTORS (3): Food, Beverage and Tobacco
Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment.
ISM® CONTRACTION SECTORS (14): Paper Products;
Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.
ISM® MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE (US) NOVEMBER 2023 Index Manufacturing PMI® New Orders Production Employment Supplier Deliveries Inventories Customers’ Inventories Prices Backlog of Orders New Export Orders Imports
Series Index NOV
Series Index OCT
46.7 48.3 48.5 45.8 46.2 44.8 50.8 49.9 39.3 46.0 46.2
46.7 45.5 50.4 46.8 47.7 43.3 48.6 45.1 42.2 49.4 47.9
PCT PT Change Direction 0.0 +2.8 -1.9 -1.0 -1.5 +1.5 +2.2 +4.8 -2.9 -3.4 -1.7
OVERALL ECONOMY Manufacturing Sector
Rate of Change
Trend* (Months)
Contracting Contracting Contracting Contracting Faster Contracting Too High Decreasing Contracting Contracting Contracting
Same Slower From Growing Faster Faster Slower From Too Low Slower Faster Faster Faster
13 15 1 2 14 9 1 7 14 6 13
Contracting Contracting
Same Same
2 13
*Number of months moving in current direction. Source: Institute for Supply Management®, ISM®, PMI®, Report On Business®.
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