Apresentação de Claudio Anjos, Diretor de Educação e Sociedade, British Council Brasil

Higher education global trends and emerging opportunities

Global Education Dialogues S達o Paulo 29 October 2013 Claudio Anjos Director Education and Society British Council Brazil

The shape of things to come Research series:

Developed by the British Council during 2011-2012 to analyse the emerging trends for international higher education and

opportunities until 2020.

Part 1: Developed by the British Council during 2008-2010 to analyse the emerging trends for HE opportunities to 2020 Research Aim: - future shape of the tertiary education sector - growing internationalisation - teaching and research.

This study focuses on trends and econometric analysis

What is changing until 2020?

1. Analysis of macroeconomic and demographic data suggests a significant slow down in the growth of tertiary education enrolments.

2. The above directly affects the mobility of international students – much lower growth is projected to 2020

3. Continued transnational education growth, determined by quality, student experience and responding to demand in niche subject areas 4. Increasing importance of international collaborations in the production of quality research 5. Implications for Brazil higher education institutions

Unfavourable demographics 1. Drivers of Higher education demand • Demographic (population growth) • Macroeconomic drivers (GDP  HE enrolment ratio) • Countries’ national policies on international education and legal frameworks • % of 18-22 y.o. enrolled in HE courses

2. Tertiary education enrolments globally - 170 million in 2009: • 160% growth since 1990 • Average annual growth of 5-6% per year in previous decades

As the graphic shows, many of the most populous countries have ageing demographics. Consequently there will be slower tertiary enrolment growth of 1.4% per year till 2020 compared to 5-6% growth per year in previous decades.

Tertiary age (18-22) population 2002=100 120

Forecast

110

100

Growth (absolute) will come from:

90

• India (7.1m)

80

• China (5.1m)

China India Russia Brazil South Korea Germany US

70

60

• Brazil (2.6m) • Indonesia (2.3m) • Nigeria (1.4m)

50 2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics

2014

2016

2018

2020

Global tertiary

enrolments, student mobility, global GDP and trade (1980-2009)

Global mobile students growth (2011-20) OUTBOUND MOBILITY UK outbound mobility will increase to 38,000 students by 2020 Brazil outbound mobility will increase to 47.000 students by 2020 (*) with ratio of 0.40% of Brazilian mobile students. (*) number do not consider the Science Without Borders programme. Forecasts are policy neutral.

Global mobile students in 2020 growth by destination country INBOUND MOBILITY Projected growth in inbound mobility

Forecasts are policy neutral

Transnational education (TNE) 1. Growth in TNE programmes – especially in East countries: CH, ML and UAE 2. Shift from capacity building (quantity) to tight quality assurance 3. TNE is increasingly contributing to host countries’ national priorities 4. Trend of ‘partnership-led’ model –improving the quality of domestic HE system

5. More research-led universities are engaging in TNE

Transnational education (TNE) 6. TNE is a significant part of HEIs’ internationalisation strategies 7. Fast response to demand in niche subject areas (business, management, engineering) 8. Very ambitious international student recruitment targets by TNE providers: 500,000 international students by 2020 in China;

150,000 international students by 2015 in Singapore; 200,000 international students by 2020 in Malaysia.

International research collaborations 1. Top research nations have more than doubled their international collaborations in 2010 compared to 10 years ago. If the trend continues China would match the US in terms of international collaborations

2. Countries that engage more in international collaboration produce research that are more highly cited 3. Three international collaboration groups:

• • •

Volume leaders: US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, China, Japan High citation impact: Switzerland, US, Netherlands, UK, Sweden Emerging countries with growing importance: China, Malaysia, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia

International Research Collaboration

Source: Scopus 2012

Implications for Brazil 1. International student mobility • Brazil will have one of the largest HE systems in the world (around 9.2 million enrolments), dominating global growth with India, Indonesia, Nigeria and China • Research shows an increase on mobility to 47.000 students by 2020 – however keeping a low ratio of 0.40% of Brazilians abroad (not considering SwB).

2. TNE: •

Relevance of Joint/double degrees, however with strong legislative restrictions 3. International collaborations: •

Attractive country for international partnership – growing focus on quality rather than on quantity

Thank you!

Reports available at http://www.britishcouncil.org/education/higher-education

Claudio Anjos claudio.anjos@britishcouncil.org.br