Belcher Post Election 2022

The 2022 Midterms – Results from Exit Polling

Key Findings from 2022 Exit Polling Presented by Cornell Belcher @cornellbelcher

The Results of the 2022 Midterm Elections

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

While Democrats lost House seats, they dramatically overperformed relative to the postwar midterm average Seat Change in the House of Representatives for President’s Party in Midterm Elections Since WWII (Dashed line represents the average of 1946-2018: -26.4)

*Source: NPR

Since World War II, when a President’s approval rating is below 50%, his party loses an average of 43 seats in his first midterm*

25

5

8

0

-4

-5

-12

-9

-13

-15

-18

-25

-8

-26

-28

-30 -40

-50

-48 -55

-48

-48 -54 -63

-75

1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

3

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Democrats also bucked historical trend by gaining a seat in the Senate Seat Change in the Senate for President’s Party in Midterm Elections Since WWII

Source: NPR

(Dashed line represents the average of 1946-2018: -3.8) 5

2

2 1

1

1

1

0

0

-1

-1 -3

-5

-4

-4

-5 -6 -8

-10

-6

-8 -9

-12

-12

-15

-20

1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

4

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

For the first time since WWII, Democrats gained governorships in a midterm election—a historic result Change in Governorships for President’s Party in Midterm Elections Since WWII (Dashed line represents the average of 1946-2018: -4.4) 10

8

The only other postwar gain in governorships occurred in 1986, during the Reagan admin.

5

2 0

0

0 -1

-5

-3

-3 -6

-10

-1

-5

-6 -8

-5

-6

-7

-8 -11

-6

-6

-10

-15

-20

1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

5

National Trends

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Since the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Democrats have not won a majority of the white vote 80

LBJ/ Civil Rights Act 68

70 60

“We have lost the South for a generation.”

57

59

60

59

56

50

47

49 43

41

55

52

51

40

-Lyndon Johnson, upon signing the Civil Right Act, 1964

66

55

58

58

58

41

40

40 40

38

30

59

46 48

41

58

36 32

43

42

39

41

43 39

34

20

37

Joe Biden Jimmy Carter

Barack Obama

Bill Clinton

10 0 1952

7

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

Republican

1988

1992

1996

2000

Democrat

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

2022

Source: exit polls (as of 12/15/20)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

The 2022 electorate was as white as it was in 2018, halting the trend of increasing diversity in midterm electorates Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

Midterm Voters by Race 2022

73%

11%

11%

2% 3%

2018

72%

11%

11%

3% 3%

2014

75%

2010

77%

2006

79% 0%

20%

11%

10%

40%

White

8

12%

Black

60%

Hispanic

Asian

80%

Other

8%

3% 2%

8%

2% 2%

8%

2% 2% 100%

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

The 2022 electorate was as white as it was in 2018, halting the trend of increasing diversity in midterm electorates Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

Racial Makeup of the Electorate: Presidential Elections 2008

2012

2016

2020

2% 13%

2% 13%

2% 12%

4%

9%

10%

2%

11% 3%

13%

4% 67%

71%

72%

74%

13%

4%

Racial Makeup of the Electorate: Midterm Elections

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2% 10%

2% 11%

2% 12%

3% 11%

3% 11%

79%

9

8%

2%

8%

77%

2%

8%

75%

11%

3%

72%

11%

3% 73%

2%

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Women voters have moved towards Democrats over time, and a 20-point difference in party support between men and women voters has persisted since 2014 Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

Party Support by Gender More Democratic

(Showing net support for Democrats in elections since 2004; dashed lines indicate the trend) Men

Women 19%

20%

15% 12%

13%

12%

11%

10%

8% 4%

3%

In 2022, 53% of women supported Democrats while 45% supported Republicans. Among men, 42% supported Democrats and 56% supported Republicans.

-1% 3%

More Republican

0%

10

1% -4%

-10%

-7%

-8%

-11%

-12% -14%

-14% -16%

-20%

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

In 2022, women supported Democrats by a larger margin than they had during the Obama midterms (2010 and 2014) Party Support by Gender – Midterms Only More Democratic

(Showing net support for Democrats in midterm elections since 2006; dashed lines indicate the trend) Men

Women

19%

20%

Women voted more heavily Democratic in 2018 and 2006, but these were both wave Democratic years under extremely unpopular Republican administrations.

In the context of a Democratic administration, 2022 was a high point for support from women.

12% 10%

8% 4%

More Republican

0%

11

3%

-1%

-4% -10%

-14% -20%

2006 (W. Bush)

2010 (Obama)

-14%

-16% 2014 (Obama)

2018 (Trump)

2022 (Biden)

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Democrats managed to equal Biden’s 2020 margins among white and Black voters, but Hispanic voters continue to trend more Republican

12

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

2014 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2014 Margin

75% 38% 60% -22

12% 89% 10% +79

8% 62% 36% +26

3% 49% 50% -1

2018 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2018 Margin

72% 44% 54% -10

11% 90% 9% +81

11% 69% 29% +40

3% 77% 23% +54

2020 electorate share Biden Trump 2020 Margin

67% 41% 58% -17

13% 87% 12% +75

13% 65% 32% +33

4% 61% 34% +27

2022 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2022 Margin

73% 40% 58% -18

11% 86% 13% +73

11% 60% 39% +21

2% 58% 40% +18

2014 to 2022 Margin Shift

+4

-6

-5

+17

2018 to 2022 Margin Shift

-8

-8

-19

-36

2020 to 2022 Margin Shift

-1

-2

-12

-9

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Democrats won a majority of women in 2022 and had limited losses among men

13

Men

Women

2014 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2014 Margin

49% 41% 57% -16

51% 51% 47% +4

2018 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2018 Margin

48% 47% 51% -4

52% 59% 40% +19

2020 electorate share Biden Trump 2020 Margin

48% 45% 53% -8

52% 57% 42% +15

2022 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2022 Margin

48% 42% 53% -11

52% 53% 45% +8

2014 to 2022 Margin Shift

+5

+4

2018 to 2022 Margin Shift

-7

-11

2020 to 2022 Margin Shift

-3

-7

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

While support from Black men and white women has rebounded since 2020, Hispanic voters have moved significantly towards the Republican party

14

White men

White women

Black men

Black women

Hispanic men

Hispanic women

2014 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2014 Margin

37% 33% 64% -31

38% 42% 56% -14

5% 86% 13% +73

7% 91% 8% +83

4% 57% 41% +16

4% 66% 32% +34

2018 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2018 Margin

35% 39% 60% -21

37% 49% 49% 0

5% 88% 12% +76

6% 92% 7% +88

5% 63% 34% +29

6% 73% 26% +47

2020 electorate share Biden Trump 2020 Margin

35% 38% 61% -23

32% 44% 55% -11

4% 79% 19% +60

8% 90% 9% +81

5% 59% 36% +23

8% 69% 30% +39

2022 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2022 Margin

36% 35% 63% -28

37% 45% 53% -8

5% 82% 17% +65

6% 88% 10% +78

5% 53% 45% +8

6% 66% 33% +33

2014 to 2022 Margin Shift

+3

+6

-8

-5

-8

-1

2018 to 2022 Margin Shift

-7

-8

-11

-10

-21

-14

2020 to 2022 Margin Shift

-5

+3

+5

-3

-15

-6

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Younger voters supported Democrats levels similar to 2018 and 2020; for older voters, this election was closer to 2014

15

18-44

45+

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

2014 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2014 Margin

35% 51% 46% +5

65% 44% 54% -10

13% 54% 43% +11

22% 50% 48% +2

43% 45% 53% -8

22% 41% 57% -16

2018 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2018 Margin

35% 61% 49% +12

65% 49% 50% -1

13% 67% 32% +35

22% 58% 39% +19

39% 49% 50% -1

26% 48% 50% -2

2020 electorate share Biden Trump 2020 Margin

40% 56% 42% +14

60% 48% 51% -3

17% 60% 36% +24

23% 52% 46% +6

38% 49% 50% -1

22% 47% 52% -5

2022 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2022 Margin

34% 55% 42% +13

66% 44% 54% -10

12% 63% 35% +28

21% 51% 47% +4

39% 44% 54% -10

28% 43% 55% -12

2014 to 2022 Margin Shift

+8

0

+17

+2

-2

+4

2018 to 2022 Margin Shift

+1

-9

-7

-15

-9

-10

2020 to 2022 Margin Shift

-1

-7

+4

-2

-9

-7

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

White voters under 30 were more supportive of Democrats than in any election in the past 10 years Meanwhile, Democratic support remained high among young Black and Latino voters Black Voters 18-29

Latino Voters 18-29

White Voters 18-29

2%

2%

2%

9% 30%

89%

16

40% 68%

58%

2020:

89% / 10% / 1%

69% / 28% / 3%

44% / 53% / 3%

2018:

92% / 7% / 1%

81% / 17% / 2%

56% / 43% / 1%

2016:

85% / 9% / 6%

68% / 26% / 6%

43% / 47% / 10%

2014:

88% / 11% / 1%

68% / 28% / 4%

43% / 54% / 3%

2012:

91% / 8% / 1%

74% / 23% / 3%

44% / 51% / 5%

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Early estimates predict that young voter turnout surpassed all other recent midterms, except for 2018 At the same time, support for Democrats was higher in 2022 than it has been for all recent general elections, except for 2018 Estimated Voter Turnout in Midterms

Source: CIRCLE at Tufts University

Estimated National House Vote Choice

Among Voters 18-29

Among Voters 18-29

31% 67% 55%

45%

49%

54% 48% 49% 49%

48% 44%

48% 48% 47%

44% 38%

17

62%

58% 60% 55% 60% 54% 55% 55%

43%

42%

33%

37%

40% 32%

63%

36% 35%

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Democrats did much better among Independent voters than they had in 2014 or 2016 (although they didn’t do quite as well with Independents as they had in 2018 or 2020)

18

Dem

Rep

Ind

2014 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2014 Margin

35% 92% 7% +85

36% 5% 94% -89

28% 42% 54% -12

2018 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2018 Margin

37% 95% 4% +91

33% 6% 94% -88

30% 54% 42% +12

2020 electorate share Biden Trump 2020 Margin

37% 94% 5% +89

36% 6% 94% -88

26% 54% 41% +13

2022 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2022 Margin

33% 96% 3% +93

36% 3% 96% -93

31% 49% 47% +2

2014 to 2022 Margin Shift

+8

-4

+14

2018 to 2022 Margin Shift

+2

-5

-10

2020 to 2022 Margin Shift

+4

-5

-11

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

In 2016, Independent voters broke Republican by 6 points, 48% to 42%.

Candidate Quality

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

In an election cycle where control of the House and Senate came down to razor-thin margins, candidate quality was one of the decisive factors in the GOP collapse NC-01: Sandy Smith (attended the Jan 6th riot, credibly accused of domestic abuse by family members, anti-abortion fanatic, opposes gay marriage, QAnon conspiracy theorist) defeated a moderate in the primary and lost what could have been a Republican flip

NC-13: Bo Hines (anti-abortion fanatic, ally of Madison Cawthorn, carpetbagger who moved into the district months before the election just to run for office there) lost a R-leaning district TX-34: Mayra Flores (anti-abortion fanatic, opposes gay marriage, QAnon conspiracy theorist, and said January 6th was a false flag done by Antifa) lost a very winnable seat to Vicente Gonzalez WA-03: In the biggest upset of the election, Joe Kent (anti-abortion fanatic, outright white nationalist, 2020 election denier) knocked moderate incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Buetler out in the primary and then lost an easily winnable R district to a strong Democratic challenger, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez AK-at-large: Sarah Palin split the Republican vote, throwing away an easy Republican victory in Alaska PA-08: Jim Bognet (2020 election denier, anti-abortion fanatic, lost his district in 2020 even though Trump won it) lost for a second time in a rematch to Matt Cartwright OH-09: J.R. Majewski (pro-Trump rapper, lied about his military service and got caught, was at the Capitol right before the Jan 6th insurrection) beat a more moderate Republican in the primary, then got blown out by 13 points in what should have been a tossup election CO-03: MAGA whacko Lauren Boebert nearly lost a solidly red district

There are many, many more more stories like these.

20

@cornellbelcher

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Despite much more favorable conditions for the GOP in 2022 compared to 2020, Rubio was the only Republican Senate candidate in a swing state to significantly improve on Trump’s 2020 margin

GOP Senate Candidate Margins Relative to Trump’s 2020 Margins

FL: Rubio

13.1%

NC: Budd

2.3%

WI: Johnson

1.7%

NV: Laxalt

The bar for Republicans in 2022 was incredibly low. If they had run candidates in PA, AZ, and GA who improved on Trump’s margin by just 1.25%, they would have won all three of those seats and a Senate majority. All they needed was an Adam Laxalt-level performance in those states.

1.5%

GA: Walker

-0.6%

OH: Vance

-1.5%

NH: Bolduc

However, even in a midterm election with 8% inflation and an unpopular Democratic president, the GOP somehow managed to do worse than Trump’s 2020 performance in 5 vital swing Senate seats and ultimately lost 4 of them.

-1.8%

PA: Oz

-3.3%

AZ: Masters

-4.5% -8%

21

Data as of 11/16/22

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

National Trends

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Black voters, white voters, young votes, and college voters supported Democrats at levels comparable to 2020, while Hispanic voters, Asian voters, older voters, and non-college voters broke Republican Net Support by Race

Net Support by Gender White 30%

19%

20% 10%

15% 8%

4%

0% -10% -20% -30%

-4%

-8%

-16%

2014

2018

2020

-14%

90% 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% -30%

81% 79%

20%

26%

10%

-22%

30%

13%

-10%

2018

-17%

2020

-18%

2022

Non-college

20%

20% 0%

-1%

12%

10%

-10%

-3% 0%

-10%

-3% -10%

-20%

-2%

-8%

-12%

-30%

-30%

23

21% 18%

27%

10%

0% -20%

40%

College

5%

-10%

73%

-1%

45+ 14%

75%

Net Support by Education

25%

30%

Asian

33%

Net Support by Age 18-44

Hisp

54%

2014

2022

Black

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

2014

2018

2020

2022

2014

2018

2020

2022

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Young women were the only group to move more Democratic between 2020 and 2022, supporting the theory that Roe’s overturn mobilized young women Net Support by Gender and Age* 30%

18-44 men

45+ men

18-44 women

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22) 45+ women 26%

23% 20%

10%

9%

4% 0%

-1% -3%

-10% -15% -20%

-20%

-30%

2020

24

2022

(Note: 2014 and 2018 data not available for these age and gender groups)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Hispanic voters, especially Hispanic men, have moved away from the Democratic Party Net Support by Race and Gender White men

White women

Black men

Hisp men

Hisp women

85%

90%

81%

83% 75%

Black women

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

73%

78% 76% 60%

60%

65%

47% 45%

39%

30%

34%

15%

16%

33% 29%

23% 8%

0%

0% -15%

-14%

-30%

-31%

-11%

-8%

-21%

-23%

-28%

2018

2020

-45%

2014

25

2022

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Older voters of all races shifted Republican in 2022, but younger Black and white voters shifted more Democratic Net Support by Race and Age

90%

82%

White 18-44

White 45+

Black 18-44

Black 45+

Hisp 18-44

Hisp 45+

81% 74%

75% 75% 60%

67%

45%

34%

30%

27%

15%

26%

-30%

70%

30%

28% 13%

0% -15%

Older Hispanics moved an alarming 15pts towards Republicans between 2020 and 2022.

-1%

-16%

-14% -19%

-25%

-26%

-45%

2014

26

2020

2022

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22) (Note: 2018 data not available for these race and age groups)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Among whites, college educated women were the only group that broke Democratic; non-college white men continue to move further away from Democrats Net Support Among Whites by Gender and Education 30% 20%

White college women

White non-college women

White college men

White non-college men

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22) (Note: 2014 data not available for these race and education groups)

20% 9%

10% 0%

14%

-3% -4%

-7%

-10% -14% -20%

-27%

-24%

-30% -34% -40%

-42% -46%

-50%

2018

27

2020

2022

Swing States

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

See the next section for a fuller picture of the data, but the following quickly summarizes the shifts between 2020 and 2022 •

Young voters (18-44) were key to Democrats beating expectations and defying historical trends • •

•

White, college-educated women abandoned Republicans •

•

Nationwide, and in 6 out of 9 swing states, white college educated women voted significantly more Democratic in 2022 than they had in 2020

Democrats continue to lose support from Hispanic voters • •

29

In 7 out of 9 swing states, exit polls showed young men voting significantly more Democratic in 2022 than they had in 2020.

In 4 out of 9 swing states, exit polls showed young women voting significantly more Democratic in 2022 than they had in 2020.

Nationwide, and in 6 out of 9 swing states, Hispanics voted significantly more Republican in 2022 than they had in 2020 This trend was particularly pronounced in Florida. In 2018 and 2020, Democrats won 53-54% of the Hispanic vote. But in 2022, that dropped to 41%.

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

In swing states, Democrats mostly lost ground among Hispanic voters and older voters, but gained ground among young voters and college-educated women Better for Dems than 2020

Worse for Dems than 2020

Men Women

0 2

4 2

White Black Hispanic

3 2 1

2 2 6

18-44 45+

6 2

2 5

18-44 men 45+ men 18-44 women 45+ women

7 1 4 3

2 5 2 4

White college women White non-college women White college men White non-college men

7 5 3 3

1 3 6 5

Shift in Dem Margin (2020 to 2022)

Total groups better Total groups worse

30

National

1 9

AZ

9 3

FL

3 10

GA

4 3

NV

4 6

NH

4 5

NC

4 5

OH

4 4

PA

9 1

WI

6 6

Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

The Dobbs Decision

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

Younger women voters were vital to the Democrats in 2022; men and older women were less likely to vote Democratic than in 2020 Source: exit polls (as of 11/15/22)

32

18-44 Men

45+ Men

18-44 Women

45+ Women

2020 electorate share Biden Trump 2020 Margin

19% 50% 46% +4

29% 42% 57% -15

21% 61% 38% +23

31% 54% 45% +9

2022 electorate share Democrats Republicans 2022 Margin

16% 47% 50% -3

32% 39% 59% -20

18% 62% 36% +26

34% 49% 50% -1

2020 to 2022 Margin Shift

-7

-5

+3

-10

(Note: Age and gender breakouts not available from 2014 or 2018 exit polls)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

According to our post-election polling, many voters were convinced by advertising that highlighted the Democratic and Republican candidates’ stances on abortion Reasons to Support Democrat

Reasons to oppose Republican

(Showing coded open-ended responses for those saw ads for Democratic candidates)

(Showing coded open-ended responses for those saw ads for Republican candidates)

I am a Democrat / Share their views

23%

17%

Pro-choice / Women's rights

Democrats have done a good job

Is for the people / Support Democracy

24%

Is against abortion rights / Pro-life

Disagree with their views / I am Democrat

10%

Support Trump / Say 2020 was stolen

9%

Dishonest / Bad character and values

15%

11%

8%

Values and character / Is honest

7%

The negative attack ads

Do not like GOP

7%

Too extreme / Radical

4%

Lack of experience, unqualified

4%

Is more reasonable / GOP too extreme

33

4%

7%

Source: brilliant corners post-election poll (602 midterm voters from 15 battleground Congressional districts, plus oversample of 200 African American voters)

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2022 ELECTION

@cornellbelcher

The Dobbs decision and Republican extremism on abortion appears to have driven the high levels of support Democrats received from young voters Source: CIRCLE at Tufts

34