Starting the conversation
New statewide tool calculates economic impacts of climate change
by Angela K. Evans
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istoric floods. Severe drought. Record wild- baseline information to even be getting to have fires. Since the turn of the century, those conversations.” Colorado has experienced extreme weather The project is a joint effort between CWCB events made worse by climate change, and Colorado Division of Homeland Security and resulting in significant damages to people, Emergency Management (DHSEM), developed property, infrastructure, industries and the environwith grant funding from the Federal Emergency ment. Policy-makers from local jurisdictions to state Management Agency (FEMA). It’s the first of its agencies are tasked with preparing the Centennial kind in the country — although other states are State for the future marked by such events, as it’s attempting to implement similar projects, the likely they will only become more frequent and FACE tool will help inform those efforts. more severe. But, “The reality is COURTESY STATE OF COLORADO this is the first time until recently, it’s been difficult for governwe’ve been able to ments to understand quantify the economjust how such hazards ic cost of climate affect their bottom change, and we’re line. hoping to take this Enter the Future data, begin to reflect Avoided Cost it in local hazard mitExplorer (FACE), an igation plans and interactive web-based then define mitigatool that allows decition measures that sion-makers to will offset some of explore the economic these costs,” says impacts of these hazSteve Boand, state ards based on 2050 hazard and mitigation projections of both a officer with warming climate and DHSEM. population growth. “This tool can Initially seen as a pilot also be used to show project, the tool came what are the costs of out of updating the inaction if you just sit state hazard mitigaback and don’t do ON THE BILL: FACE USER tion plan, which idenanything. We can tally it up, what it may look like,” DEMO. 10 a.m. Thursday, June 25, virtual. The event will tifies flood, drought adds Patricia Gavelda, program manager for FACE be recorded and made availand wildfires as the with DHSEM. “Not only here in Colorado, but able for later use. Visit cwcb. three main atmospheric across the country, some see the value of mitigation colorado.gov/webinar-futureavoided-cost-explorer-userhazards the state faces. planning more than others, but this is another way demo for more info. The tool seeks to to quote-unquote sell mitigation actions that can quantify impacts of lead to resiliency.” these hazards on local Using county-level data, FACE specifically economies by translating increases in temperature looks at how the impacts from the three hazards are and population growth into dollars and cents. The felt across seven different economic sectors: buildhope is that local governments will use this inforings, bridges, crops, cattle, skiing, rafting and supmation to implement cost-saving mitigation plans pression (wildfire). But the tool is also open source, at the local level, which every jurisdiction in the which allows jurisdictions to mimic the project with state is required to have in order to be eligible for other localized data. state and federal mitigation funding. “I think the biggest step for us initially was to “Regardless of who’s up top or who’s making just track down what information’s out there,” says decisions, people want to make responsible investRyan Spies, a scientist with Lynker, a water ments that see those dollars actually being effective resources consulting group based in Boulder, which to addressing the risk,” says Megan Holcomb, helped develop the FACE tool. senior climate specialist for the Colorado Water In the agriculture sector, for example, the Conservation Board (CWCB). “And this is just the USDA has robust data sets that the creators were BOULDER COUNTY’S INDEPENDENT VOICE
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JUNE 25, 2020
able to use. For other sectors, like rafting and skiing, they had to get a bit more creative to track down specific impact data, he says. Considering total damages, the Front Range will be hardest hit, simply due to exposure: the people, livelihoods, infrastructure or economic assets that could be adversely affected by these hazards. “Some of the exposure in the future is really driven by where people are going to live and where they’re going to work — continuing to grow in the floodplains or growing into the wildland-urban interface, as you imagine, increases your exposure more,” Spies says. But breaking it down further, looking at these impacts on a per capita basis, that’s when “you start to see which counties, which regions of the state are really going to be hit hard from a local economic perspective,” he says. Rural counties that depend largely on agriculture, for example, could be especially susceptible to economic hardship due to drought. For Boulder County, the tool shows that flooding could cost an additional $39 million under the high population growth (a 63% increase from current numbers) and more severe climate scenarios (an increase of 3 degrees Celsius in the summer.) Wildfires could cost an additional $41 million per year, and drought $14 million annually. Added all together, these hazards alone could cost Boulder County an estimated $94 million per year in estimated damages. “So you put that in the context of what the County’s general fund is ($439.9 million for 2020) [and] about 40% of the annual budget of Boulder County would have to be refashioned in some way to address these concerns,” Boand says. Looking at it another way, it would be $450-$530 per year for each household, he says, approaching the annual cost of other utilities like a water bill. The tool doesn’t translate data into specific recommendations for local areas, however. But it does give a picture of where cost savings could occur, and offers examples of actions local governments can initiate now to improve future community resilience. “A lot of what our goal is with this project is to provide a resource, to have more conversations, more dialogue on understanding where we’re heading as far as climate change and population growth, and then what can we do about it,” Spies says. “We can paint a doom and gloom picture all day long, but I think where we really want the conversation to go is where and how and why do we need to devote resources to promoting resiliency and adaptation.” I
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