agendaNI Ecconomy report Sep 2025

Economy Minister Caoimhe Archibald MLA: ‘Foundations we can build upon’

Six months on from her appointment as Minister for the Economy, Caoimhe Archibald MLA welcomes Ciarán Galway to the Department for the Economy’s (DfE) Adelaide House headquarters in Belfast city centre to discuss macroeconomic headwinds, her four Economic Vision priorities, and capitalising on the all-island economy.

Reflecting on her initial experiences in the economy brief, Archibald recalls her previous role as Finance Minister from February 2024 to February 2025, and her time as chair of the Committee for the Economy in the previous mandate.

“That was good grounding,” she explains, “for understanding the breadth of the remit. I had also worked closely with [former Economy Minister and now a Sinn Féin seanadóir] Conor Murphy and Eoin Rooney, who is my

special advisor, in advance of us [Sinn Féin] coming into the Department.”

Sinn Féin’s MLA for East Derry indicates that her stint as Finance Minister allowed her the opportunity to acquire “a more strategic overview of all of the departments and an understanding of the challenges facing them, particularly the financial challenges”.

Describing the economy brief as “challenging” and a “learning curve”,

Archibald remarks on the opportunity for engagement with DfE’s arm’s length bodies, the business community, universities, colleges, students, and young people.

Macroeconomic context

Commenting on the macroeconomic context, the Economy Minister initially emphasises the challenges in the global economy catalysed by a tariff landscape in a state of flux.

“This has been a challenging year, particularly from the global economic perspective; since President Trump has come into office, and all of the uncertainty that has been created in the broader economy in terms of the tariffs that have been imposed, removed, and reimposed,” she says.

While suggesting that the EU-US trade deal “gives us a little bit more certainty”, Archibald warns: “We are still in a much worse place than we were a few months ago in terms of the ability to trade freely, and that has created huge challenges for businesses trying to navigate the current situation. The uncertainty that is created in the economy as a whole creates an atmosphere that is not conducive to people doing business, to people making investments, to people in terms of their longer-term plans.”

Mitigation

Asked how this exposure to global trade changes can be mitigated, the Minister articulates a realist recognition of the Executive’s limitations to influence the external environment in this context.

“We can only control what we can control, and we will continue to create the best possible environment for businesses locally; to start up, to grow, to thrive, and for people to have opportunities, to get skilled, to get into jobs. That is what our Economic Vision is about, and the four priorities that we have within it in terms of good jobs, improving productivity, improving regional balance, and decarbonisation of the economy.”

In April 2025, the Minister announced the establishment of a tariff working group to collaborate with DfE officials, Invest NI, and InterTradeIreland to “provide market intelligence to the Minister” amid the introduction of trade tariffs by the US Government.

Outlining the feedback she has received from the working group, the Minister indicates that it aligns with her own assessment that the current trade deals are merely “headline deals”.

“There is still a lot of negotiation to be done under those, and it is very difficult to give an assessment even comparing what the different regimes are, but they [the working group] would also reflect the kind of difficult environment that has been created because of those [tariff changes].”

“We are making good progress, but we do have challenges that have been persistent and historic that will take some time to address.”

Economy Minister Caoimhe Archibald MLA

Prioritisation

In a sober statement at the launch of the Northern Ireland Skills Barometer 2023-2033 in early February 2025, Archibald indicated: “The coming financial year will be difficult for my department so it will be critical to prioritise and ensure maximum impact in all that we do.”

Expanding on this prioritisation, the Minister recounts how the Executive’s draft budget for 2025/2026 had been agreed in December 2024, and the finalised budget agreed by the end of March 2025.

“It is a challenging budget for the Executive as a whole, and that has meant that we, as a department, had to prioritise in terms of trying to make the best impact with what we have got. We have our priorities in terms of our four objectives, regional balance, for example, where we have prioritised funding to our local economic partnerships.

“Skills are a key priority for me, underpinning everything that we are trying to achieve and trying to get investment into our universities and colleges. So, it has been a challenge in terms of trying to do all of that and also deliver on the business of the Department.”

In the summary report of its latest skills barometer, Ulster University’s Economic Policy Centre projects that given the “precarious” state of public finances, “early signals following the [UK] Autumn 2024 Budget indicate that a similar pattern” of “political disagreements over budget allocations and industrial action stemming from pay disputes” is expected in 2025.

When this is put to the Minister, she indicates that such a trajectory is “difficult to gauge”. “When we came into the Executive, we prioritised public sector pay and resolving a number of industrial disputes that have been ongoing. We all recognise the importance of our public sector workers in terms of being able to deliver on our objectives,” she insists.

Productivity

Labour productivity is a key indicator of economic performance. As one of the four priorities under the Economy Minister’s ‘Economic Vision’, it remains, in her words, “one of the most pervasive challenges facing us”.

Indeed, in Delivering The Economic Vision: Year One Progress Report, published in February 2025, DfE’s Chief Economist, Victor Dukelow, notes: “On productivity, our output per worker is 13 per cent below the UK average with an even more pronounced gap compared to the Republic of Ireland.”

Furthermore, an April 2025 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report comparing the two economies on the island found that productivity in the North lagged behind the Republic in eight of the 10 economic sectors examined in 2021.

“It has been long running that we have been poorly performing relative to our neighbours. It is one of those issues that will be difficult to turn the tide on, and it will take some time to do that,” Archibald acknowledges.

Interpreting productivity as a synonym of prosperity and quality of life, she adds: “It is about how we address that challenge to make people’s lives better. That is why we want to improve productivity, not just as an economic measure.”

Discussing the factors informing productivity, including skills, management practices, innovation, and infrastructure, the Minister commends Invest NI in supporting businesses in leadership and management capabilities, alongside its ability to invest in innovation.

Similarly, given the broader economic and fiscal challenges faced in recent years, Archibald emphasises the tenacity of local business: “Over many, many years, our businesses have been really resilient and have innovated and responded to all of the [existential] challenges, whether that is Brexit, Covid, the ‘cost of doing business’ crisis, and now the tariffs. So we do have a really entrepreneurial and innovative business sector, and we are here to support them,” she says.

FDI

Asked how support for indigenous business can be balance against the pursuit of foreign direct investment (FDI), Archibald points to the design of the Economic Vision: “It is very much a case of us being more strategic about the FDI that we are trying to attract,” she explains: “Local businesses tell us about the challenge of getting people with skills. So [we] do not want to be

bringing in more and more businesses that are essentially driving up costs for other businesses because they are [operating] in the same talent pool.

“It is about trying to supplement the business environment that we do have; attracting businesses that are going to invest in skilling people and that are going to support that broader business environment. So it is a case of us very much focusing on our priority sectors –we have seven priority sectors – and how we can support businesses locally and indigenously to be part of that broader supply chain as well, so that you have a complementary mix of FDI and indigenous business.”

Good jobs

A second priority under the Economic Vision is the delivery of the good jobs agenda. In other words, updating employment law with the aim of delivery more jobs which meet a quality threshold.

Currently, according to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), just two-thirds of jobs meet the definition of ‘good’ in that they are “underpinned by a permanent, non-zero hours contract which pays at least the Real Living Wage”.

A flagship piece of legislation for DfE, the Good Jobs Employment Rights Bill is currently being drafted. “It is my intention to introduce that [Bill] into the Assembly in January 2026,” she reiterates.

Described by the Minister as “the biggest upgrade in workers’ rights since the Good Friday Agreement” proposals for the Bill made in April 2025 include:

• an end to exploitative zero-hour contracts;

• paid leave during neonatal care;

• more protections for agency workers;

• stronger trade union rights;

• stronger rights to flexible working; and

• a fair distribution of tips.

In establishing these proposals, the Minister indicates her intent to “set out how we had really listened in terms of the [public] consultation and tried to strike the balance between what is going to be good for workers and what is going to be good for businesses”.

“What I committed to doing was to continue to engage with everybody involved to ensure that there was good buy in and understanding of everything that we were going to try to do with that piece of legislation. That work is continuing. My [DfE] officials have been engaged with trade unions and with business organisations. We are going out in the autumn, doing a road show across different council areas, to ensure that people do have the opportunity to feed into the drafting of that legislation and in terms of what is being brought forward and properly codified in legislation.”

Regional balance

A third priority of the Economic Vision is regional balance as per DfE’s SubRegional Economic Plan published in October 2024. Alongside local councils, DfE and Invest NI have established 11 local economic partnerships “to put local economic decision-making into the hands of local people, and to deliver economic growth regionally”. Simultaneously, Invest NI has been briefed with an enhanced regional focus, demonstrated by a headline target of delivering 65 per cent of investments beyond the Belfast Metropolitan Area by 2026/2027.

Today, the outlook remains one of variable growth across council areas. For instance, the range in employment rate between Mid and East Antrim, the council area with the highest rate (79.5

per cent) and Derry City and Strabane, the council area with the lowest rate (65.4 per cent) is 14 per cent.

This trend is not unique, however. As demonstrated by Delivering Balanced Regional Growth in Northern Ireland, a UUEPC report from May 2025, economic development across the OECD is generally uneven in nature.

In this context, an aspiration to create a more regionally balance economy has been articulated from the 2016 draft programme for government onwards.

“Many countries face the same challenges or similar challenges as we do,” Archibald recognises. We are a very small place, so it is a case of trying to better, or to improve our regional balance. And in some regards, there have been improvements in terms of the narrowing of the gaps that there are, but there are still huge challenges in certain regions across the North.”

Rather than relocating economic activity away from where it already exists, the Minister explains, the objective is to ensure “that everybody has an opportunity to develop their local economy”.

“What we have tried to do with the Sub-Regional Economic Plan is the establishment of those local economic partnerships across the 11 council areas. That is very much about giving power back to the local area to design their own local economic plans, and for us, then as a department, to support those local economic partnerships, to leverage that support in from other departments and the agencies, to take forward their plans and that that is being resourced by the department over the next three years.”

Decarbonisation

In the 12 months to March 2025, just 43 per cent of total metered electricity consumption was generated from indigenous renewable sources, representing a decrease of 2.4 percentage points on the previous 12 months to March 2024. This figure falls far short of the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 target ensuring that “at least 80 per cent of electricity consumption is from renewable sources by 2030”.

However, a commitment to decarbonisation is the fourth and final priority of the Economic Vision. In this

context, the Minister faces scrutiny in effectively capturing the opportunities presented by a transition to a more sustainable economy.

“There are huge challenges for us all in terms of the targets that we have to meet, in terms of the investment that will be required.

“But it present us with significant opportunities, particularly from a business perspective, and particularly for an island like ours that has significant natural resources in terms of renewable energy.”

Aiming to “ensure that our energy is secure, affordable and clean”, the Northern Ireland Energy Strategy: The Path to Net Zero Energy was published in December 2021 and has determined the Department’s short- and long-term energy policies.

“We are almost at the midpoint of that,” the Minister observes, adding: “We are doing a mid-strategy review this year [2025]. It is an area where there is significant policy development work already being achieved through the Energy Strategy, but there is still quite a lot of work to do.”

Identifying the offshore renewable energy potential as “one of the areas where there are significant economic and business opportunities from a supply chain perspective”, the Minister outlines her department’s efforts to “support businesses to be in the position to take those”.

“Businesses in general are really keen to go on that journey in terms of decarbonisation themselves, and we had financial support in place in terms of the Energy Efficiency Capital Grant (EECG), which was really well applied to and... there was significant interest from businesses across different sectors, because they see the benefits.”

All-island economy

Meanwhile, at the end of July 2025, the Irish Government published its revised National Development Plan (NDP). With €550 million allocated to date and a further €1 billion allocated out to 2030 via the Shared Island Fund, Chapter nine of the NDP is entirely devoted to the Shared Island Initiative as it enters an “expanded phase”. In this context, Archibald addresses how her department is working to take full advantage of the all-island economy.

“Over recent years we have seen these significant increases in terms of cross border trade,” she replies. “When Conor [Murphy] came into the Department originally, last year [2024], he gave an uplift in terms of the budget to InterTradeIreland and Tourism Ireland [which] had not been fully resourced over recent years. Those organisations are now properly resourced.”

Citing the opening of Invest NI’s Dublin office in September 2024 and the commencement of the first all-island trade mission jointly led by Enterprise Ireland, Invest NI, and IDA Ireland in November as examples of progress, the Minister also references “increasingly positive relationships being built across [government] departments, across my own department, and the various part departments in the South that we work with”.

Turning to her tourism remit, the Minister describes the work of Tourism Ireland – which operates under the auspices of both DfE and the Department of Enterprise Tourism and Employment – as contributing to the objectives established by DfE’s 10-year Tourism Vision and Action Plan (January 2025) out to 2035.

“We have also been working with Fáilte Ireland in terms of developing their brands – the Wild Atlantic Way, Ireland’s Hidden Heartlands, and Ireland’s Ancient East – across the island, and we are making good progress particularly in relation to Ireland’s Hidden Heartlands,” she reveals.

Sinn Féin’s stamp on economic policy

Concluding, Archibald defines the strategic direction that her party has applied to the economy brief. “The economic vision that we have brought to the Department is all about improving prosperity across the region as a whole, and [improving] people’s lives and opportunities.

“We are making good progress, but we do have challenges that have been persistent and historic that will take some time to address, and I think that where I hope to be by the end of this mandate is that we have made good progress, and we have created foundations that we can build upon.”

Delivering a globally competitive, regionally balanced, sustainable and prosperous economy

Shaping Northern Ireland’s economic future

Kieran Donoghue, Chief Executive of Invest Northern Ireland, speaks to Owen McQuade about how the organisation has transformed to meet the needs of a changing economy, and why he sees strong reasons for optimism about Northern Ireland’s future.

When Kieran Donoghue became Chief Executive of Invest Northern Ireland (Invest NI) in early 2024, he set out a clear ambition: to create an organisation that is more responsive, more outwardlooking, and better equipped to support an economy facing rapid change.

“Our role is to help Northern Ireland businesses succeed in a global environment that is more complex, more competitive, and more uncertain

than ever before,” he says. “That meant reshaping how we operate and how we think about our impact.”

Building a more agile organisation

The past 18 months have brought significant internal change at Invest NI. A new leadership structure has been established, with senior appointments bringing both continuity and fresh perspectives.

This includes a new Chief Commercial Officer, Anne Beggs, previously Invest NI’s Executive Director for International Business and Skills, and a new Chief Operating Officer, Kathryn Hill, previously Director of Active Communities for the Department for Communities. Recruitment of a new Chief Development Officer to lead the organisations regional development, land and property and client solutions group is ongoing.

Delivering

and

““We want to be accessible to more businesses and deliver tailored support based on their specific growth trajectory”

Kieran

Donoghue,

Chief Executive Officer, Invest Northern Ireland

At the same time, the organisation has refreshed its values, digitised client processes, and reshaped its operating model to engage with a broader range of businesses, including more highpotential small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

“We want to be accessible to more businesses and deliver tailored support based on their specific growth trajectory,” explains Donoghue. “In my view, that requires a dedicated inward investment team, alongside teams focused on supporting locally owned businesses, because the needs and wants, and the strengths and capabilities of these two groups of firms are different, and our approach must reflect that.”

This transformation, he argues, is about more than structure. “It is also about culture, behaviour, and mindset, and being more connected to our clients. A positive evolution in this is already clear in how our teams are working.”

A strategy designed for impact

Published in Autumn 2024, Our Future in Focus is the first strategic plan for the organisation in several years. It sets out a clear vision to directly support the Economy Minister’s economic priorities: delivering a globally competitive, regionally balanced, sustainable, and prosperous economy.

The strategy shifts Invest NI’s focus from a traditional jobs-led model to one centred on productivity and long-term competitiveness. “We are operating in conditions of near full employment,” Donoghue explains. “That means we

need to focus on helping businesses become more productive, more innovative, and better positioned to succeed in global markets. This is what will sustain competitiveness and economic growth over the long term.”

The results from year one of the new strategy demonstrate the scale of progress:

• £631 million invested in the Northern Ireland economy against a target of £525 million;

• 2,062 investment projects supported, exceeding the target of 1,500;

• £245 million committed by businesses to R&D and innovation, surpassing a target of £160 million;

• 19 new inward investors secured, against a target of 15;

• 59 per cent of investments outside the Belfast Metropolitan Area, almost achieving the 60 per cent regional balance goal; and

• £19 million invested in energy and resource efficiency projects, nearly three times the original target.

“These outcomes highlight not just strong delivery against targets, but real, tangible progress in building a more competitive and resilient economy,” says Donoghue.

“Our year one results have been encouraging, but the real significance is the momentum. Businesses are investing with confidence and looking at how to future proof themselves.”

Investing in innovation and skills

A central pillar of Invest NI’s approach is driving innovation. With £245 million of client investment in R&D recorded in year one, Donoghue sees this as vital to future growth. “Innovation is the foundation of competitiveness. If firms are not innovating, they risk falling behind,” he stresses. “The fact that businesses are committing record levels of investment into innovation shows that Northern Ireland has the ambition to compete globally.”

Skills and leadership development are also key. Last year, £31 million was invested in skills and training, helping firms build the capabilities they need to grow in an increasingly digital and knowledge-driven economy.

Driving regional balance

Historically, investment has been concentrated in Belfast. Under the new strategy, regional balance is a priority, with nearly 60 per cent of all projects supported located outside the city in year one.

“We want to make sure that economic opportunity reaches every part of Northern Ireland,” Donoghue explains. “Strong regional growth is not only fair, but it also helps to strengthen the resilience of our economy as a whole.”

The state of the economy

Donoghue is clear about both the opportunities and the challenges facing Northern Ireland. “At Invest NI, we tend to view the Northern Ireland economy through the lens of our clients, whether they are family-owned SMEs or global multinationals. When we talk to them,

they are optimistic about the economy. Many are reinvesting, adopting technologies like robotic process automation and AI, and expanding into export markets.”

That optimism is underpinned by strengths in talent and skills. “The quality of graduates coming out of our universities and FE colleges is consistently highlighted by investors. Fundamentally, Northern Ireland’s economic strength is built on the ambition and capability of its people.

That is a great strength for the future.”

However, there are constraints. “We have an economy effectively at full employment. The tight labour market means some firms are struggling to recruit, or recruit people with specific skills,” he says. “If they want to grow their business, that is a constraint that we need to address. Infrastructure capacity, particularly in water, energy, and planning, is another obstacle to growth. These issues must be tackled in tandem with business support if we want to unlock the full potential of the economy.”

Global influence

Global uncertainty is also a factor. Geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, increasing competition, rapid technological change, and cost pressures all weigh on decision-making.

Rising input costs, such as higher national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels, weigh heavily on SMEs. “Margins are often tight, so even modest increases can put firms under pressure,” he explains.

At the same time, changes to tariffs create both risks and opportunities. The tariff differential between the deal struck between the UK and the US at 10 per cent versus 15 per cent for the European Union “provides a potential opportunity for businesses in Northern Ireland, but further analysis is needed”.

In response, Invest NI has established a trade taskforce, running webinars and clinics to advise businesses on how to reconfigure supply chains and to navigate new markets, particularly in the US.

“There will always be challenges, but overall, on the basis of the engagements with our clients, we see an economy full of potential.”

Despite these challenges, Donoghue is optimistic. “Northern Ireland’s dual access and understanding of both UK and EU markets is unique. In a world of expanded trade frictions and disrupted supply chains, that positioning is more valuable than ever.”

Future opportunities

Looking ahead, Donoghue sees particular potential in existing and emerging sectors where Northern Ireland already has capability. These include advanced manufacturing, technology, and financial services alongside sub-sectors such as fintech and regtech, life sciences, agri-food and aerospace, defence, and security.

The low carbon economy also stands out as a growth area. “We have fantastic companies in renewable energy, and the broader green economy,” he says. “Decarbonisation is not just an environmental necessity; it is a major economic opportunity.”

City and Growth Deals, with over £1.3 billion of public investment, are also set to be transformative. “These projects will create new innovation hubs and clusters across the region. Our role is to make sure businesses are ready to take full advantage of them. Invest NI, as the investment decision maker for about £700 million of the innovation and

digital projects, has established a team of more than 20 people that are overseeing our involvement in the city and growth deals programme. We believe the investments emerging from the programme will be vehicles for both sectoral and regional development across NI.”

Looking forward with confidence

As Invest NI enters the second year of its strategy, Donoghue is clear about the road ahead. “Year one has laid strong foundations. The next two years will be about building on that momentum, driving further investment, supporting more companies to innovate and export, and ensuring regional and sustainable growth.”

“Yes, challenges remain, whether in infrastructure, costs, or global trading conditions, but the direction of travel is positive. Businesses here are ambitious, they are investing, and they are optimistic about the future. Our job is to match that ambition with the right approach and support.”

He concludes: “Northern Ireland has all the ingredients for success – talent, resilience, innovation, a unique global position, and a ‘can-do’ attitude. If we continue to invest in our businesses and our infrastructure, we can build a truly competitive and sustainable economy for the future. At Invest NI, we are fully committed to achieving this goal.”

W: www.investni.com

T: 0800 181 4422

Northern Ireland’s economic resilience

The resilience of Northern Ireland’s largely service-based economy could be stress-tested over the coming months.

Economic momentum in Northern Ireland has slowed in 2025 following a strong 2024 when the region experienced a 2.7 increase in economic growth, the highest increase since 2006 when it rose by 3.2 per cent. It is unlikely the region will get anywhere near that this year.

Addressing a recent Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce business breakfast in Belfast, Bank of Ireland’s UK economist/market analyst Alan Bridle suggested we are currently in an “unforgiving” business environment. He attributed this to the local sensitivity around Trump tariffs and the belief that the autumn Budget will further impede business. Bridle referenced the disproportionate impact of the rise in employer National Insurance contributions on employers of low paid workers to support this.

The economist stated that Northern Ireland could be particularly negatively impacted by tariffs on its

two largest exports to the US, pharmaceutical products and specialist industrial machinery. A 48 per cent tariff may be imposed on pharmaceutical products, while a 22 per cent levy may be imposed on specialist industry machinery.

On 8 May 2025, the UK and US announced the terms of a trade deal, introducing a 10 per cent baseline for UK exports entering the US.

Prevailing uncertainty

The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) for Q1 2025 reveals that the region’s economy contracted by 0.6 per cent, mainly due to output declines in both construction and manufacturing. This was the first contraction since Q4 2023 and followed four consecutive quarters of growth, including a 0.9 per cent increase in Q4 2024.

Delivering

At the Chamber of Commerce business breakfast, Richard Ramsey, Professor of Practice in Economics and Policy at Queen’s University Belfast Business School, said the figures highlight a downturn for the private sector previously identified by the Ulster Bank regional growth tracker (previously known as the PMI).

He predicted: “The local economy is expected to see a growth rate of around one third of the 2024 figure, and more uncertainty looks set to prevail for the rest of the year.”

As regions and nations aim to reshape their investment propositions to become more attractive to business and enterprise, the question of whether corporation tax should be lowered has reemerged. Both Bridle and Ramsey stated that this ship has sailed.

However, Chartered Accountants Ireland (CAI) insist that in the wake of the Windsor Framework – which gives Northern Ireland access to both the EU and UK markets – lowering the rate of corporation tax could exploit the region’s potential.

CAI president Pamela McCreedy says: “No one inducement, policy, or measure applied in isolation can single-handedly transform a region’s attractiveness to investors. Dual market access, however unique a feature it is, is never going to be enough on its own to make Northern Ireland a destination of choice for inward investment.

“We need more than regulatory advantage. We need a suite of complementary policies that collectively make up a pro-enterprise proposition that positions Northern Ireland not just as an option, but as a first choice for investment. Chief among those policies must be the implementation of a more competitive rate of corporation tax.”

The devolution of corporation tax-setting powers has been legislated for since 2015, but these powers have yet to be activated. In 2021, the Independent Fiscal Commission for Northern Ireland signalled its support for the devolution of corporation tax powers, while in a survey earlier this year, two thirds of chartered accountants say they would back it, with the majority calling for a rate equal to that of the Republic of Ireland (12.5 per cent).

Meanwhile, businesses are expected to bear the brunt of the autumn Budget as Rachel Reeves attempts to plug another £40 billion-plus black hole. Her autumn 2024 Budget was the biggest real terms tax raising budget since 1968, raising £41.5 billion.

Positive trends

Despite the challenges, there is also reason for optimism regarding Northern Ireland’s economy. The housing market has experienced a steady increase in property prices, although not enough houses are being built to keep pace with demand.

The labour market has been generally robust for some time, although employment did dip for first time in four years in spring as the private sector attempted to limit overheads before April’s increase in employer national insurance contributions kicked in.

Manufacturing remains a cornerstone of the local economy, even though it continues to operate without a dedicated strategy. This change if the region is serious about creating jobs, driving innovation, and achieving regional balance.

“It is essential that any strategy is backed by an action plan that’s focused on delivery, investment in advanced manufacturing, and new models of skills development,” Alliance economy spokesman David Honeyford MLA says.

Summing up the current economic climate in Northern Ireland, Bridle said: “There is plenty of noise right now, and we are in an environment with many moving parts and pain points to navigate.”

The Centre for Cross Border Cooperation: Unlocking opportunities across borders

For over 25 years, the Centre for Cross Border Cooperation has been shaping opportunities for government, business, and communities by breaking down barriers across these islands, writes Anthony Soares, Director of the Centre for Cross Border Cooperation.

At its 25th anniversary conference in September 2024, the Centre for Cross Border Studies announced the new name it would be operating under – the Centre for Cross Border Cooperation –to better reflect this mission. The name change signals continuity, but also ambition: to build the partnerships that will help Northern Ireland, and the wider region, navigate a rapidly changing economic and political landscape.

Driving economic growth through cooperation

Cross-border cooperation is not just a matter of goodwill, it is a driver of competitiveness and prosperity. Working with governments, businesses, and communities, the Centre has consistently highlighted how a crossborder perspective can unlock growth. In partnership with our Senior Research Associate Niall O’Donnellan, we published Accelerating Growth: Towards an All-Island Perspective on Regional Development (2022) and Accelerating Growth: Progressing Globally Ambitious Sectoral Clusters on the Island of Ireland (2024)

These studies demonstrate how cooperation can:

• build globally competitive sectoral clusters;

• strengthen regional development; and

• deliver mutually beneficial outcomes for both jurisdictions.

We have used this evidence in direct engagements with policymakers and business organisations to promote cross-jurisdictional collaboration. The message is clear: Northern Ireland’s economy gains when borders are not barriers to growth.

The labour market on the island of Ireland

Sustainable growth depends on people. Employers across Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland need access to talent, and workers need systems that support mobility. However, practical obstacles, from tax treatment and pensions to recognition of skills, often stand in the way.

The Centre was commissioned by the Labour Employer Economic Forum (LEEF) Shared Island Working Group to examine these challenges. Our report, authored by a team of experts led by our Border People Project Manager, Annmarie O’Kane, identified limiting factors that include:

• personal taxation and pension portability;

• social welfare systems;

• recognition of qualifications and skills; and

• changing patterns of work and mobility.

Following its publication, the Centre convened a series of webinars on worker mobility, tax and pensions, social security coordination, and skills recognition. These directly informed our 2025 Annual Conference, where governments, businesses, trade unions and support networks came together to consider actionable solutions.

For business leaders and policymakers alike, the prize is clear: a wider horizon of possibilities for recruiting, retaining, and upskilling the workforce that will drive future prosperity.

Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Hilary Benn MP speaking at the Centre’s 25th anniversary conference, with its Chair, Peter Osborne.

“For

25 years, the Centre for Cross Border Cooperation has been turning ideas into action to strengthen connections across these islands. As a trusted think-and-dotank, we provide independent analysis and practical support that help governments, businesses and communities overcome barriers and unlock opportunities. Our work demonstrates that cooperation drives growth, resilience and prosperity.”

Trusted research, independent analysis

The Centre’s credibility rests on more than advocacy. At the core of our work is rigorous research and independent policy analysis. We continually track legislation and policy developments from London, Dublin, Belfast, Cardiff, Edinburgh, and Brussels, identifying both risks and opportunities for crossborder cooperation.

This evidence-based approach ensures that the Centre is a trusted partner for government departments, legislative committees, and local authorities. Our Briefing Papers and submissions have supported parliamentary scrutiny, while our seminars and workshops provide practical knowledge exchange for public bodies and civic organisations.

In short, we do not just describe the obstacles; we offer the solutions.

Practical support for cooperation

The Centre’s impact is also felt in the practical assistance we provide. Our Border People project offers information and advice for those living, working,

studying or retiring across the border; an essential service for thousands of individuals and families.

We also work with councils, community groups, and civic organisations to build capacity for cross-border projects. Through the Ad-Hoc Group for NorthSouth and East-West Cooperation, we convene voices from across these islands to ensure that the conditions for cooperation created by the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement are protected and strengthened in the post-Brexit context.

Why this matters now

For Northern Ireland’s government and business community, cross-border cooperation is not optional. It is a strategic necessity. From addressing labour shortages and supporting skills development, to building globally competitive clusters and ensuring resilience in supply chains, the opportunities of cooperation directly align with government priorities and business growth strategies.

At a time when both public budgets and private investments must deliver maximum impact, cooperation offers a multiplier effect: pooling resources, sharing expertise, and widening horizons.

Looking ahead

The Centre for Cross Border Cooperation will continue in its unique role as a thinkand-do-tank, working with governments, businesses, and communities to turn cooperation into prosperity. The foundations laid by the 1998 Good Friday/Belfast Agreement remain strong, but they require continual investment of effort and imagination.

The question now is not whether we can cooperate across borders, but how far we are willing to go in seizing the opportunities it offers.

As Northern Ireland looks to the future, the Centre stands ready to work with those across government and business who see cooperation not as a challenge to overcome, but as an asset to embrace.

E: anthony@crossborder.ie

W: www.crossborder.ie

Meeting at the Centre’s offices with Paul Murphy on his independent review of the Windsor Framework.

Delivering

Sustainable public finances

After 18 months of financial “firefighting”, the recent UK Treasury spending review gives Finance Minister John O’Dowd MLA the fiscal stability and responsibility to deliver a multi-year budget. Speaking to agendaNi, Jodie Carson, Professor of Strategic Policy in Practice at Ulster University says this enables Executive departments to transform and transition towards long-term strategic planning.

Following Chancellor Rachel Reeves MP’s spending review in June 2025, the Executive has clarification on the resource and capital allocations available to them over the next three years. Finance Minister John O’Dowd MLA could present the first multi-year budget since 2010, providing an opportunity for long-term strategic decisionmaking.

According to Carson, the Executive has a golden opportunity to change trajectory. She says the Executive has been in “firefighting mode” in recent years, an unsustainable position with outcomes for public services requiring substantive improvement, and opportunities for reform being missed.

The cost of inaction is considerable with increasingly evident impacts being felt, particularly relating to wastewater infrastructure, as decades of underinvestment results in building projects across Northern Ireland stalling – stunting growth and development. The Lough Neagh blue-green algae crisis continues to worsen, as parties quarrel over measures required to restore its health.

Across the regional economy, low productivity persists with no clear plan to end stagnation, while the draft Anti-Poverty Strategy has been met with widespread criticism for its lack of depth and direction.

Delivering a globally competitive, regionally balanced, sustainable and prosperous economy

“Public finances across the UK remain tight, hindered by low levels of growth which reflect longrunning structural challenges… forthcoming spending allocations for Northern Ireland are tighter than the past two financial years.”

Explaining the current economic malaise, Carson says “public finances across the UK remain tight, hindered by low levels of growth which reflect long-running structural challenges. Consequently, forthcoming spending allocations for Northern Ireland are tighter than the past two financial years.”

In June 2025, an independent review by Gerarld Holtham entitled Northern Ireland’s Level of Need, found that Northern Ireland required a financial subvention level of 128 per cent. Meaning that for every £1 spent per head of population in England, £1.28 per head of population ought to be spent in Northern Ireland.

Echoing the sentiment of the report, Carson says: “It is unfortunate that the identified level of relative need here had not been revised upwards for some time. The commitment to a broader review of our fiscal framework allowed for this to be revisited. But it is worth noting that the revised figure, whilst welcome, would not be a game-changer.

“Further, the £520 million in stabilisation funding, which Northern Ireland has had in place for the past two financial years, will now cease, representing a fiscal cliff edge.”

In June 2025, an agreement was reached between the UK Treasury and Finance Minister John O’Dowd MLA, excluding £329 million of unringfenced agricultural funding from the methodology for calculating the Executive’s relative funding, bringing an extra £600 million for public services. When added to the 124 per cent subvention agreed by the UK Treasury, this represents a real-terms subvention level of 128 per cent.

Despite this commitment, which is only guaranteed through to 2028/29, Carson says: “The Executive faces renewed challenges in, and imperative for, transitioning towards longer-term strategic decisions.”

Public sector transformation is “fundamental to a revised approach”, Carson says, insisting that this ought to be mainstreamed across the full spectrum of government activities.

Outlining the challenge ahead, Carson says transformation “necessitates a greater focus on prevention, early intervention and the reconfiguration of some services”.

Asked for specifics, Carson claims “the utilisation of artificial intelligence will be central to this and is notably core to the UK Government’s narrative”.

Outlining the next steps to be taken, Carson says, “the Department of Finance will now seek to work with departments to identify pressures and derive allocations, which involves incremental adjustments to previous departmental budgets”.

However, many aspects of the spending review for Whitehall departments have been subjected to zero-based review of budgets, which involves scrutinising expenditure from scratch."

Carson adds: “There may be merit in trialling this approach in certain areas of local public spending to enable enhanced scrutiny of expenditure.”

With the most recent £16.7 billion budget being published in June 2025, Carson believes the timeframe for delivering a budget should be pushed back, saying: “Ideally, a draft budget will go to the Executive in the autumn and then to public consultation to allow for a final agreed budget in early spring, ahead of the next financial year enabling due forward planning.”

Rosamund Blomfield-Smith, Chair,

Text Utilities: Imperative to economic success

Economies that treat utilities as an economic platform build the capacity to innovate, export, and improve living standards sustainably and at scale writes

Utilities are the backbone of any modern economy. Without them, economic activity would swiftly grind to a halt. We can think of utilities as the ‘silent engine’ of economic life; usually out of the spotlight, but powering everything from manufacturing and healthcare to education and commerce.

Utilities are fundamental enablers of economic activity across all industries. They are the input that every sector depends upon, transforming latent potential into tangible production.

When utilities are reliable, readily accessible, and affordable, they contribute to lower operational costs, reduce uncertainty, and broaden the scope of what businesses and individuals can achieve. Conversely, where utility services are inadequate or inconsistent, they impose constraints on development and act as a drag on economic growth.

Enabling economic productivity

Electricity, clean water, wastewater management, and digital connectivity are indispensable components of a modern functioning economy. They are the bedrock upon which productivity is built.

A reliable electricity supply supports business continuity, enhances operational efficiency and enables

Utility Regulator.

resilient supply chains. High-quality water and wastewater services are critical to industrial processes and are vital to the safeguarding of public health. Collectively, these utilities are fundamental to increasing productivity across the whole economic landscape.

Equally important is the stability of utility provision. Predictable and consistent access to utilities reduces the need for costly self-provisioning measures such as backup generators and storage systems. This, in turn, enables businesses to allocate capital to core operations and strategic investments.

Driving investment, location, and economic competitiveness

The availability and quality of utility services play a decisive role in shaping business location decisions and the formation of industrial clusters. Manufacturers gravitate toward sites offering stable and accessible electricity and gas supplies, and robust water and wastewater infrastructure. Similarly, data centres and digital enterprises require locations with abundant, competitively priced electricity and a plentiful water supply. Logistics hubs depend on resilient energy and communications networks along transport corridors.

Regions that proactively invest in utility infrastructure, ahead of demand, send a strong signal of reliability. This strategic foresight enhances their attractiveness to both domestic and international investors. Over time, such investment fosters a virtuous cycle: the resilience of utility networks supports higher-value economic activities, which in turn justify further enhancements in capacity and service quality.

Employment and industrial linkages

The utilities sector gives rise to employment, both directly and indirectly. It employs a wide range of professionals, including engineers, technicians, planners, and system operators whose expertise is essential to the delivery and maintenance of critical infrastructure and services.

The sector stimulates increased employment opportunities across multiple industries. The construction and maintenance of electricity networks, for example, require inputs from the construction sector, materials suppliers, and advanced manufacturing.

These interconnected supply chains foster the development of specialised, high-value skills within local labour markets. Importantly, many of these capabilities are transferable across

sectors and enhance workforce adaptability and employability. In this way, the utility sector contributes not only to economic output but also to long-term human capital development.

Innovation and the digital economy

In 21st century growth economies, data has become a critical driver of productivity and innovation. The infrastructure that supports highcapacity broadband – essential for cloud computing, remote working, and digital services – relies heavily on a stable and scalable energy supply. The increasing integration of smart grids, distribution networks, and advanced metering systems enables the efficient introduction of modern business processes and supports the evolving demands of the digital economy.

The electrification of transport and heating represents another significant engine of economic growth in its own right. This transition is catalysing the development of new infrastructure and stimulating the emergence of new industries, including battery manufacturing and power electronics. These innovations not only enhance system performance but also open new avenues for industrial and technological development.

Decarbonisation and sustainable economic transformation

The utilities sector occupies a central position in the global transition toward a low-carbon economy; an endeavour we regard as both an environmental necessity and a strategic economic opportunity.

Investments in renewable energy generation, grid modernisation, energy storage, and water efficiency measures help mitigate exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets and climate-related risks. The result is a more resilient and costeffective energy system that enhances business profitability and strengthens consumer purchasing power.

Waste and wastewater utilities are advancing circular economy principles by recovering energy, heat, and valuable materials from waste streams. This transformation of traditional cost centres into sources of revenue not only improves resource security but also contributes to long-term economic sustainability.

Resilience and risk mitigation

In the face of increasingly frequent and severe disruptions, ranging from extreme weather events to cyberattacks, utilities serve as critical tests of a society’s economic resilience. Their ability to maintain continuity under stress determines whether essential services remain operational when they are needed most.

Resilient utility systems are characterised by strong infrastructure, diversified supply sources, and robust asset management. These attributes safeguard against service interruptions, preventing costly economic losses from factory shutdowns, supply disruptions, and interruptions to public services.

Inclusion, affordability and human capital

Universal and affordable access to utility services represents an investment in human potential, not merely in infrastructure. Clean water and effective sanitation systems are fundamental to public health, while reliable electricity and digital connectivity are essential to improving living standards and enabling full participation in 21st century economic life.

Equitable and transparent pricing mechanisms are critical to protecting all consumers, particularly those who are most vulnerable. Inclusive utility design helps prevent barriers, such as high costs or limited availability, that restrict households from accessing opportunities in education, employment and civic engagement.

An economy is more dynamic and resilient when every individual has the means to be healthy and productive. By widening participation, utilities contribute to the development of human capital and inclusive economic growth.

Markets, regulation, and incentives

Because they are capital-intensive natural monopolies, utilities are very much shaped by the regulatory frameworks within which they operate. Effective regulation is essential to achieving an appropriate balance between the three core objectives of reliability of service, affordability for consumers, and sustained investment in infrastructure.

Clear and stable regulatory rules reduce the cost of capital by providing predictability to investors. Performancebased incentives encourage utilities to pursue operational efficiencies and service improvements. Meanwhile, costreflective tariffs help guide consumption patterns and support more flexible demand and supply dynamics.

Sustained economic growth

Good utility regulation serves as a catalyst for continuous economic expansion. High-quality utilities attract investment, which in turn broadens the tax base and strengthens fiscal capacity. This enhanced fiscal position paves the way to further infrastructure upgrades, which reduce operational risks and costs, creating a reinforcing cycle of productivity and growth.

The strategic imperative is clear: economies that treat utilities not as background expenses but as foundational platforms for innovation, trade, and improved living standards are better positioned to grow fast and sustainably. W: www.uregni.gov.uk

Delivering a globally competitive, regionally balanced, sustainable and prosperous economy

2025/26 Budget: Keeping the lights on

Northern Ireland’s 2025/26 Budget delivers increased funding for public services and earmarks over £425 million for Programme for Government (PfG) priorities. However, the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council has warned that the Executive is still not meeting overwhelming departmental pressures and is merely “kicking the can down the road” towards a funding cliff-edge.

Informing the Assembly of the final Budget on 3 April 2025, Finance Minister John O’Dowd MLA stated that the Budget “reflects our Programme for Government commitment to doing what matters most” and “shows this executive’s determination to work together to deliver”.

The Sinn Féin minister asserted that the Budget “provides funding to cut waiting lists, deliver affordable childcare, support special educational needs, invest in skills, make our communities safer, [and] fund actions towards ending violence against women and girls”.

However, analysis by the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council’s (NIFC) presents a contrasting view, characterising the budget as one of short-term relief that fails to meet the vast majority of new funding bids from departments.

With a significant drop in funding projected from 2026/27, the Executive’s spending plans are built on the assumption of substantial savings and leave many rising costs potentially underfunded.

Public finances

The total budget for day-to-day spending (Resource DEL) is set at just under £17 billion, with a further £2.5 billion for capital projects. This represents a nominal increase across all departments, with Health receiving the largest allocation.

The NIFC’s analysis reveals that departments submitted pressure bids totalling £4.2 billion, but less than 30 per cent of this (around £1.26 billion) could be accommodated. The council warned that this leaves many services “under strain”, with departments forced to assume significant savings.

Crucially, the Budget relies on a one-off £600 million deal with the UK Treasury to smooth over immediate gaps. The NIFC warns of a sharp “cliff-edge” when this temporary support ends after 2025/26, which could force severe cuts or a crisis in public finances.

Earmarked allocations

A central feature of the Minister’s statement is the emphasis on earmarked funding for specific initiatives. O’Dowd confirmed that “combined with the Draft Budget allocation, this brings funding provided specifically for PfG Priorities to some £425 million”.

This includes £215 million earmarked for cutting health waiting times, with £85 million from the final budget and a £50 million indicative allocation from June Monitoring. The Budget also outlined indicative June Monitoring allocations for other priorities, including the allocation of £15 million to the Department of Education (DE) for special educational needs and £5 million for protecting Lough Neagh.

Health

The Department of Health remains the single largest cost, accounting for roughly 51 per cent of the entire resource budget. The £215 million earmarked for waiting lists is a significant targeted investment.

Despite this, the NIFC points out that when earmarked items are stripped out, the Department of Health’s core uplift was smaller than those for the Department of Education and the

Departmental budget outcome 2025/26

Department

of Justice respectively. With the department still required to find £200 million in savings and facing other unfunded pressures, equality assessments indicate difficult trade-offs affecting non-statutory services are likely.

Infrastructure and capital

The Minister’s statement outlined changes in capital requirements, stating that the Department for Infrastructure (DfI) identified an easement of £15.7 million in Executive earmarked funding provided in the original draft Budget which can now be reallocated.

The resulting £15.4 million was allocated on an equal basis, as a general capital allocation to DE and DfI.

Broad analysis

The Executive’s budget clearly prioritises targeted spending on key social objectives. Minister O’Dowd asserts that the budget “sets out a direction of travel which shows this executive is prepared to do things differently and use our limited resources to do what matters most”.

The Fiscal Council’s analysis, however, serves as a critical rebuttal to this optimism, warning that the “cliff-edge” of funding in 2026/27 could force difficult choices. Its assessment suggests that the failure to meet departmental bids and the reliance on temporary UK Treasury fixes create a high risk for service delivery, meaning the short-term respite of the 2025/26 Budget may quickly give way to another severe financial crisis.

High economic inactivity persists

Northern Ireland’s economic inactivity rate has been consistently higher than the UK’s from the period May to July 2010 to May to July 2025, as shown by figures from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency’s (NISRA) September 2025 Labour Market Report.

The region’s economic inactivity rate – the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who are not working and not seeking or available to work –stood at 26.5 per cent for May to July 2025, 5.4 per cent above the UK rate of 21.1 per cent.

Although the rate in Northern Ireland has decreased from the previous quarter, it increased by 0.6 per cent over the year. This is slightly below the 0.8 per cent increase recorded in the UK over the year. Economic inactivity peaked in Northern Ireland in late-2010 when it hit 28.8 per cent, compared with the UK high of 23.5 in mid-2011.

A briefing paper on economic inactivity and inclusive labour markets in Belfast and Northern Ireland published by Ulster University in January 2024 states that high rates of economic inactivity “can lead to adverse social and economic consequences”. It asserts that it “restricts the capacity of the economy to grow”, unless it is offset by increases in productivity or immigration.

“A failure to achieve higher rates of labour market participation across Belfast has contributed to a range of personal and broader societal issues, including increased risk of poverty, financial difficulty, loss of human capital, social exclusion, and higher dependence on income replacement benefits,” the report states.

Sickness and disability

Analysis on economic inactivity in the region published by Invest NI in September 2025 attributes Northern Ireland’s high rate of economic inactivity in comparison to the UK to a larger proportion of people out of the workforce due to sickness and/or disability.

Of economically inactive people in the region between April and June 2025, 38 per cent were inactive due to sickness or disability, compared with the UK-wide rate of 31 per cent. This cohort represented 10.1 per cent of Northern Ireland’s population aged 16 to 64, compared with 6.6 per

cent in the UK. The number of economically inactive people in the North due to sickness and/or disability has fallen by 2.4 per cent since 2023.

People who do not work due to family and home care commitments represent 19.4 per cent of the economically inactive, while students represent 24.4 per cent. The number of economically inactive people due to family and home care commitments has increased by 10.7 per cent since 2023. The number of economically inactive students has increased by 2.7 per cent. However, Invest NI also notes that economic inactivity in Northern Ireland has been on a general downward trend since June 1999 when it stood at 29.4 per cent.

Furthermore, analysis by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) published in September 2025 asserts: “Those personally exposed to the ‘Troubles’ were significantly more likely to claim DLA later in life, increasing the likelihood by 21 percentage points”, thereby suggesting a generational correlation between economic inactivity and exposure to the conflict, based on historical, long-term analysis.

Additional metrics

NISRA finds that Northern Ireland’s employment rate stood at 71.8 per cent for May to July 2025, a 0.9 per cent decrease over the year. Wages in the 12 months to August 2025 grew by 2.9 per cent (£67) in the region, below the

UK’s headline rate of inflation of 3.8 per cent in July 2025.

The number of people on the claimant account in Northern Ireland remained unchanged between July and August 2025, standing at 3.7 per cent of the workforce. Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate for May to July 2025 reached 2.2 per cent, an increase of 0.4 per cent over the year.

Analysis

Mark McAllister, chief executive of the Labour Relations Agency, says: “A slowing down in the labour market seems to be now ‘trending’ as these statistics show what the market has perhaps felt for some time. Despite Northern Ireland bucking the trend on many key statistics in recent times, it was perhaps only a matter of time before we became impacted.”

Identifying redundancies as a bellwether for the economy, McAllister notes that the annual total of proposed redundancies stood at 3,080 for the period of September 2024 to August 2025. This is over 10 per cent higher than the 2,760 recorded the previous year in. He adds that the 12-month totals of proposed and confirmed redundancies “are similar to the levels seen in the decade preceding the [Covid] pandemic”. A total of 2,430 redundancies were confirmed in the period of September 2024 to August 2025.

“In recent times terms like ‘flatlining’ and ‘no growth’ have stalked the business headlines. Is this doommongering or prescient predicting? We will have to wait and see,” says McAllister.

Jonathan Simpson, director for employment law at DWF, says: “While economic activity appears to be stalling and we have seen some redundancy announcements, there are also encouraging signs of investment and job creation.

“The local labour market may be struggling to meet job demand. This likely reflects ongoing economic uncertainty, compounded by increased employment costs and the anticipated introduction of enhanced worker protections under the forthcoming ‘Good Jobs’ Employment Rights Bill, which may be prompting some trepidation among employers in some sectors.”

However, Gerry Murphy of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions disputes this assertion, insisting that statistics reflect the “normal churn of employment”. Murphy adds: “They certainly cannot be attributed to legislation which is presently being drafted and is not due to have its first reading in the Northern Ireland Assembly until the start of 2026. Any slowdown in job creation in recent months cannot fairly be blamed on the proposed Good Jobs Employment Rights Bill.”

Supporting local communities

At Community Finance Ireland, we deliver social finance solutions that support local communities and drive social impact in a diverse range of sectors including grassroot sports, community projects, faith-based groups and social enterprises, writes Donal Traynor, Chief Executive of Community Finance Ireland.

We are the most progressive social finance provider on the island and deliver a social return on investment that creates a multiplier effect of 4.85 times the initial investment and supporting a diverse portfolio of clients across the island of Ireland from Belleek to Belfast, and from Dublin to Donegal.

In Northern Ireland we are proud to have worked collaboratively with several governmental departments and strategic partners to get social finance into the hands of the communities that need it the most.

Northern Ireland Small Business Loan Fund III Award

A landmark collaboration for CFI comes in the form of the Northern Ireland Small Business Loan Fund (NISBLF). Working with Invest NI and Enterprise NI, CFI have successfully completed the first two

iterations of the NISBLF and the legacy of this fund is set to have continued impact, as CFI have been awarded NISBLF III earlier this year.

The Northern Ireland Small Business Loan Fund provides loans from £10,000 to £125,000 for small and medium sized businesses and entrepreneurs to cover the cost of starting up and growing their business.

The range of businesses supported by the fund varies across the sector, from manufacturing organisations like Stepping Stones Timber, to Tourism offerings like Willowtree Glamping, NI Sportswear brand Hybrid Activity and even Arts organisations like Lisburnbased dance studio Active Dansa.

This lifeline for small businesses is essential for the economic growth in Northern Ireland and one that we are delighted to continue to support. As Active Dansa’s Mariona Hawkins highlights: “The funding and

A selection of Northern Ireland Small Business Loan Fund Clients (clockwise from top left): Stepping Stones Timber, Willowtree Glamping Pods, Hybrid Activity, Active Dansa.

advice we received through NISBLF for our new studio has been transformational for us. The extra space has allowed us to add new classes to accommodate the increasing demand and being able to offer classes in a wide variety of dance styles as well as growing our Performing Arts department with singing and acting lessons.”

£13m Financial Transactions Capital Investment

Another of our recent collaborations has seen us working with the Department for Communities to disperse loan finance through the Financial Transaction Capital (FTC) Fund. FTC investment into the Community, Voluntary and Social Enterprise sector is to the value of £13 million, and since its launch just six months ago, £6.2 million has already been drawn down by sports clubs and social enterprises across the region, making a tangible impact by unlocking capital for community-driven projects.

The FTC Fund supports projects that align with the Programme for Government objectives, offering loans from £25,000 upwards, with repayment terms of up to 15 years and no penalties for early repayment.

Among the first beneficiaries of the FTC Fund are the likes of Dungannon Enterprise Centre who used FTC finance to purchase and transform a prominent multistorey derelict shop unit in the town centre into Connect Dungannon, a business hub and flexible office spaces for small and medium size social enterprises.

Dungannon Enterprise Centre’s CEO Brian MacAuley confirms that: “We knew we had to move quickly when the opportunity arose. Community Finance Ireland gave us the flexibility to act. Our new space is full, but this is only the beginning. We want to lead on regenerating more vacant properties in town.”

Also recently in receipt of FTC finance is rural grassroots soccer club Fivemiletown United who have installed a new 4G pitch and floodlights at their Mid Ulster base. These state of the art facilities have

helped improve the club’s service offering and significantly boosted membership, especially in their youth teams. The new facility sees up to 90 children attend their weekly mini soccer training, with parents travelling from far and wide to use what they deem to be the best youth soccer facility in the area.

Club Youth Manager Chris McDowell says: “We reached out to Community Finance Ireland and they were quick to come down to meet me at the club and from the very first moment we met them, they made everything seem so easy, so friendly. Laid everything out in black and white for us. They had a great understanding of what we were trying to develop at the club and how we were trying to develop it.”

The response to this fund in these early stages has been overwhelming, and the volume of applications we have received is a testament to the strength of community projects in Northern Ireland. The clear need for alternative funding solutions reinforces our commitment to ensuring financial barriers, such as personal guarantees required by traditional lenders, do not hinder projects with the potential for real social impact. We are proud to provide a pipeline of funding that supports sustainable community and sports projects.

For more information on Community Finance Ireland and how we can help fund projects in your local area:

T: 028 9031 5003

W: www.communityfinanceireland.com

FTC Client Fivemivemiletown United Football Club sees increased youth membership following investment in new 4G pitch facility and floodlighting.

Credit: John McVitty

Meeting regional balance needs

agendaNi speaks to Conor Patterson, regional balance adviser at the Department for the Economy, about the need for a whole-ofgovernment approach to meeting Northern Ireland’s regional balance needs.

There is consensus that too much of Northern Ireland’s inward investment and job creation has been concentrated in and around greater Belfast. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the region generates around £33 billion in gross value added (GVA), making up 65 per cent of Northern Ireland’s total.

In October 2024, then-Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA launched the Sub-Regional Economic Plan, designed to correct long-standing disparities and rebalance economic development. At the heart of the plan is a £45 million Regional Balance Fund, unveiled in January 2025, which will be distributed across all 11 councils.

Each council has been tasked with establishing a local economic partnership (LEP). These partnerships aim to bring together representatives from business, further education, local enterprise agencies, and civil society to identify local economic barriers and design interventions suited to their area’s unique needs.

Speaking at the inaugural meeting of the Newry, Mourne and Down LEP, Murphy emphasised that the approach is about empowering local decisionmaking. “Local issues require local solutions,” he stated at the time. “Partnerships will identify the main barriers to economic development and the priority interventions that will build the region’s value proposition. This £45 million Regional Balance Fund will help fund the actions the partnerships bring forward to drive economic development in their area and help deliver a regionally balanced economy where everyone shares the benefits of prosperity.”

Empowering councils to set priorities

For Patterson, Chief Executive of the Newry and Mourne Co-operative and Enterprise Agency, the announcements by the Department signal a decisive move away from centralised control which he believes can improve the region’s regional balance.

“The strategy shifts power to councils and allows them to define their own priorities and propose interventions that reflect their unique challenges and opportunities,” he explains. “We know there are areas not getting a fair bite of the cherry, and there was a groundswell of dissatisfaction, so we needed radical change in rebalancing things.”

Patterson says that the pattern of job promotion has been heavily skewed. “Previously, for example, 87 per cent of investment in promoting jobs was in the four councils in the greater Belfast area, leaving the other seven councils with just 13 per cent. That figure now becomes 65 per cent, which is a brutal target, but one the LEPs are already working towards.”

The first LEP meeting in Newry, Mourne and Down, he says, set the tone for how this new approach should unfold. “It emphasised local solutions for local issues,” Patterson says, adding: “That is what will make the difference in ensuring every part of Northern Ireland feels included in the economic story.”

Delivering regional balance

While the Department for the Economy has provided the framework and funding, the delivery of regional balance will depend heavily on Invest NI’s evolving strategy. Alan McKeown, Executive Director of Regional Business at Invest NI, has said that the organisation is aligning itself with the Minister’s plan.

“Invest NI’s regional strategy outlines our commitment to supporting regional balance,” McKeown said at the launch. “This includes a commitment to deliver 65 per cent of our investments outside the Belfast Metropolitan Area. These Local Economic Partnerships are crucial to delivering a locally focused approach to economic development and delivering on this commitment.”

Invest NI has set out four main priorities that shape how its support will be channelled:

• creating good jobs that provide long-term opportunities for local people;

• increasing productivity by backing businesses to innovate, upskill, and compete internationally;

• improving regional balance by steering a greater share of investment to councils outside greater Belfast; and

• decarbonisation, ensuring that economic growth contributes to Northern Ireland’s climate commitments.

By working closely with councils and local stakeholders, Invest NI says that it aims to translate the high-level ambitions of the SubRegional Plan into projects that deliver lasting benefits for communities.

A whole-of-government challenge

Patterson stresses that regional balance cannot be achieved by Invest NI or the Department for the Economy alone. “It requires a joined-up, whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach,” he says. “Education, infrastructure, health, housing – these all have an impact on economic development. Councils cannot solve every issue, but they can bring partners together in a way that reflects local realities.”

Marie Ward, Chair of Solace NI, echoed this sentiment at the Newry launch, noting that the new structures give councils the tools “to place regional balance at the centre of their ambitions, shaping economic priorities that will deliver capital investment against the Department’s ambitions of creating good jobs, delivering increased productivity, decarbonisation, and addressing sub-regional disparities”.

Looking ahead

For councils like Newry, Mourne and Down, the new funding and structures represent both opportunity and responsibility. Pete Byrne, who was Chair of the Council between 2024 and 2025, welcomed Murphy’s visit to its inaugural LEP meeting, highlighting how the new approach “will be an enabler for this local economic partnership to not only propose and develop local actions, but to take forward strategic investment opportunities for the district, addressing localised challenges, and delivering against the Department for Economy’s vision for economic growth and achieving regional balance”.

For Patterson, the challenge ahead will be to turn strategy into delivery. “We are at the start of a long journey,” he reflects. “The road to regional balance will not be smooth or quick, but the structures are now in place, the funding is on the table, and the political will is there. If we can harness that energy and commitment, then we can finally create an economy where no part of Northern Ireland feels left behind.”

Island of Ireland to host gathering of global innovation powerhouses

When you think of Silicon Valley, some big names are likely the first to come to mind: Google, Meta, Apple. Yet beyond these global giants lies something more important, the ecosystem that has grown

Silicon Valley is, at its core, a cluster, a dense network of interconnected businesses, investors, researchers, and institutions. This may be the most famous and extreme example, but it illustrates the transformative potential of clusters everywhere.

October 2025 will mark a first for the island of Ireland – and a milestone for the global clustering community – as TCI Network, the world’s leading organisation for clusters and innovation ecosystems, brings its annual flagship conference to the island.

Hosted by InterTradeIreland, in partnership with Invest Northern Ireland and Enterprise Ireland, the theme of the 28th TCI Global Conference is ‘Building a Global Economy’, a title that reflects the ambition of the event.

“This year’s conference is the first time that TCI has worked across borders. It is a chance to highlight how cross-jurisdictional collaboration works in

around them.

practice across the island, north and south,” says Alison Currie, Director of Innovation and Entrepreneurship at InterTradeIreland.

“We have clusters at every stage of maturity – from new initiatives to well-established groups, offering a wealth of experience to share and learn from, and this conference offers a fantastic opportunity to spotlight our key industries and their strengths.”

Collaboration as an engine for innovation

“Cross-border collaboration and knowledge sharing helps spark innovation and growth, especially in sectors like health and life sciences, and advanced manufacturing,” continues Currie.

That approach to collaboration and partnership working underpins InterTradeIreland’s work, and for good reason.

(L-R) Eoin Byrne, Cyber Ireland; Simon Whittaker, NI Cyber; Alison Currie, InterTradeIreland; Pat Larkin, Cyber Ireland Advisory Board; and Jo English, NI Cyber.

Credit: Mark Stedman

“Research shows SMEs in clusters export more, pay higher wages, and grow faster, and start-ups in clusters grow 1.5 times faster than those outside. These are indicators of resilience to economic shocks and changes,” says Currie.

Particularly in today’s fast-moving economy, clusters – those groups of interconnected businesses and organisations – have proven their value.

Shaping the future of the cluster ecosystem

A key appeal of the conference will be bespoke and carefully curated interactive training workshops that will offer policymakers and cluster managers the opportunity to directly engage with global experts, providing exposure to real life examples of clustering successes that can be applied to their own strategy.

Currie asserts: “These are not passive sessions. They are about working collaboratively together, sharing ideas, and building key relationships and networks that may lead to new initiatives and partnerships, both locally and internationally.”

World-class speakers

A powerful line up of speakers will feature, including futurist Mark Esposito, known for his work on economic trends and technological change; Christian Ketels, formerly of Harvard and now with the World Bank; and Mariella Masselink, Head of the Industrial Forum, Alliance and Clusters unit within the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs.

Former Minister for the Basque Government, Arantxa Tapia-Otaegi will detail how two decades of sustained cluster investment has delivered results within the Basque Country, while Joan Martí Estévez, a leader in cluster strategy in Catalonia, will share the story behind the region’s clustering transformation.

Why attend?

For those unfamiliar with clusters, the conference will provide a gateway to opportunities – learning what clusters are and their benefits, finding collaborators, and networking. “It is about seeing what is possible, how policy, academia, and industry can work together to solve real-world problems, with extensive learning and networking opportunities”, Currie states.

Five key takeaways for delegates include:

1. Cluster tours: Visits to businesses within sectors successfully engaging in clustering activity across the island;

2. Peer and best practice learnings: Hear directly from other businesses and learn more about best practice in global clustering;

3. Cross-border collaboration: See how clusters operate across jurisdictions;

4. New markets and services: Potential to explore diversification opportunities; and

5. Strengthen networks and build partnerships: Meet peers, researchers, policymakers, and industry leaders from around the world.

Real-world impact

The value of clusters cannot be overstated, and they are proving hugely beneficial to the island’s innovation ecosystem.

The FinTech Corridor, a cluster that supports increased co-operation and collaboration amongst indigenous and investment fintech firms on the island, has influenced university courses, attracted global partners, and connected with a transatlantic payments ecosystem in Atlanta, USA. In precision oncology, north-south cooperation in diagnostics, pharma, and genetics is exploring the potential to create a world-class hub with economic and health benefits.

Clusters have also helped businesses navigate Brexit, Covid-19, and supply chain disruptions. They are also assisting indigenous SMEs to access global supply chains, furthering the island’s foreign direct investment (FDI) success.

The cybersecurity cluster is a prime example. Formed to address skills shortages, wage pressures, and fragmentation, it united FDI firms and SMEs to consolidate the talent pool, share innovation, and support sustainable growth.

“The evidence is clear – clustering works,” says Currie. Clusters boost local jobs, tax revenues, and innovation –benefits that multiply when undertaken on an all-island basis.

Innovation in action

Clusters across the island are already delivering cybersecurity tools for manufacturing, AI-driven medical diagnostics, offshore wind innovations, and breakthroughs in the circular economy.

Conference delegates will have the chance to see some of this work first hand as they can take part in exclusive industry tours across four sectors:

1. cybersecurity and fintech;

2. advanced manufacturing

3. maritime and offshore; and

4. health and life sciences.

They will visit university labs, state-ofthe-art manufacturing facilities, and collaborative hubs across the island, where innovation is thriving.

Looking ahead

“Our ambition is to build globally leading all-island clusters in key sectors, and help grow the economy across the island,” says Currie.

InterTradeIreland’s Synergy programme funds research, cross-border initiatives, and cluster manager training, whilst Enterprise Ireland and Invest Northern Ireland support cluster development in their jurisdictions. The TCI Conference is supported by the Shared Island Enterprise Scheme through the Government of Ireland’s Shared Island Fund, which has been a major driver in delivering the conference.

“There is no doubt that clustering should shape all-island industrial policy, education, sustainability, and development strategies. Integrated policy support will be the game-changer,” Currie states.

Inclusion and opportunity

Concluding, Currie says: “This conference is for anyone who wants to play a part in developing practical, inclusive, and sustainable strategies for regional innovation and economic transformation.

“It is about working together, and we want diverse voices shaping the future. Above all, it is about collaboration –between industry, academics, and policymakers, and the conference will be a celebration of exactly that.”

W: https://tciglobalconference.com/

Delivering a globally competitive, regionally balanced, sustainable and prosperous economy

The ramifications of tariffs

As global economies adapt to the reality of a protectionist White House, Northern Ireland’s exports to the US have dropped by 31 per cent year-on-year, rendering the so-called “competitive advantage” resulting from the tariff border on the island of Ireland meaningless.

Goods exports from Northern Ireland to the US fell by 31 per cent in the year to Q2 2025 compared to the year to Q2 2024 as a mixture of tariffs, global trade uncertainty, and geopolitical strife caused ripples to the Northern Ireland economy. Figures released by HMRC show a year-on-year reduction in exports to the US of £600 million.

Trade with the US is considerable, Northern Ireland exported £1.68 billion in goods to the US in 2024, while importing £752 million from the US in the same period. This represents 15 per cent of all international exports, which totalled £11.1 billion in 2024, a 1.8 per cent increase from 2023 – the only UK region to see such an increase.

In 2024, exports from the Republic of Ireland to the US totalled €72.6 billion –a 35 per cent increase from 2023. In 2024, pharmaceutical and medicinal products accounted for 30 per cent of Northern Ireland exports to US, and specialised machinery for industries such as agriculture and mining came to 17 per cent of exports.

After the signing of the UK-US trade deal on May 8 2025, all exported goods from Northern Ireland entering the US market are subject to 10 per cent tariffs. The EU-US struck a trade deal on 27 July 2025, introducing a tariff ‘ceiling’ of 15 per cent on EU imports to the US. This created a tariff border on the island of Ireland, arguably giving the North a competitive advantage over the Republic.

Under the terms of the EU-US deal, most EU products will be subject to a tariff rate higher than a 15 per cent ‘ceiling’ when entering the US market, rendering the Most Favoured Nation Rate currently imposed on all USbound imports as per World Trade Organization rules obsolete for EU imports to the US. Tariffs on UK goods are ‘stacked’ on top of these rates –which vary depending on the good in question, meaning some UK goods, such as clothing, will face higher tariffs than their EU equivalent.

Net benefit or net detriment?

The effects on Northern Ireland appear to be mixed, with Minister for the Economy Caoimhe Archibald MLA dismissing the idea of a competitive advantage for the region by saying: “This [tariff border] is in no one’s interest.” A report issued by the Department of the Economy titled, The Direct Economic Impact of the New USA Tariff Regime on the Local Economy, predicts a sustained 0.15 per cent contraction in Northern Ireland GDP owing to tariffs.

According to Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winning Economist, EU firms could “trans-ship [their] goods through Northern Ireland to get the lower tariff rate”. This could lead to economic benefits such as increased cargo volumes at Northern Ireland ports, stimulating economic growth.

Analysis

According to US President Donald Trump, ‘tariff’ is the “most beautiful word in the dictionary”. While his position on everything from abortion to party allegiance has been fluid, his protectionism is a rare continuous theme, speaking to The New York Times in 1988, he said: “I believe very strongly in tariffs… America is being ripped off. We are a debtor nation, and we have to tax, we have to tariff, we have to protect this [US] country.”

On 2 April 2025, dubbed ‘liberation day’ by the White House, the global economic order was thrown into disarray. Trump declared a national emergency regarding the US’ national trade deficit and announced “reciprocal tariffs” on friend and foe alike.

On cue, world leaders issued a single diktat to their diplomats in Washington DC – secure a trade deal. The UK was first, solidifying the 10 per cent baseline tariff with limited carve outs for steel, aluminium, cars, and aerospace parts. The EU followed, with a 15 per cent tariff ‘ceiling’. With 10 per cent being lower than 15 per cent, the UK appeared to ‘win’ the trade war.

However, the lack of an anti-stacking provision in the UK-US trade deal leaves some UK goods facing higher tariffs than their EU equivalents, meaning Northern Ireland’s so-called ‘competitive advantage’ may only exist on paper.

Donald Trump becomes president

A CASE for a stronger greener economy

Einstein once said: “Never give up on what you really want to do. The person with big dreams is more powerful than the one with all the facts.” The natural extension being that the person with big dreams based on facts wins, writes David Rooney, Professor at Queen’s University Belfast.

Within the Centre for Advanced Sustainable Energy (CASE) we use the acronym DREAMS to represent many of Northern Ireland’s economic strengths. Digital and AI, Renewables, Economic/Fintech/Regtech, Agri-food, Manufacturing and Screen technologies all play a significant role. These have evolved from our ability to create, to build, to connect to each other through stories and through our deep connection to the land.

Going forward our CASE analysis shows that product and process innovations born at the nexus of these strengths offer immense potential for Northern Ireland and a resurgence of opportunity given global challenges including the drive to net zero emissions.

Flip the DREAMS over and we can use the same acronym to highlight the barriers – Demand led, Regulation and Planning, Economic uncertainty, Aversion to risk, Mission creep and Silos. Of these, demand led is a subtle and

pervasive barrier to anticipatory investments, ultimately stifling agile growth. Mission creep distracts us with incremental successes and silos completely miss opportunity for additivity and connected value.

Of course, on the journey to a net zero and Circular economy there are many other misdirections and fallacies. We will only very briefly address three – the belief that net zero is a scam, the second that it is a luxury, and finally the belief that Northern Ireland is too small to make a difference. The first fallacy is a distraction as net zero is an inevitability. The second ignores a history of progress striving to provide society with a higher quality of life and the third is a myopic viewpoint of limited perspective ignoring Northern Ireland’s global leadership and economic potential. These fallacies have their champions but thankfully Northern Ireland remains committed to its moral and legal obligations to delivering its net zero targets.

When reflecting on this the opening line of Rudyard Kipling’s ‘If’ comes to mind. “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs” and later “if you can dream and not make dreams your master”. Removing the noise, remembering our strengths and actively addressing the barriers is critical.

Paraphrasing Jane Goodall we can summarise: “Only if we understand, will we care. Only if we care, will we act. Only if we act, will we succeed.”

Remember, big dreams based on fact wins!

For over a decade, CASE has worked with NI industry to help them succeed in developing renewable technologies. Our projects have successfully coupled advances across manufacturing, digital, sensing, marine and agri-technologies to deliver new products, services and concepts in support of renewable

David Rooney and Minister Caoimhe Archibald MLA at a recent meeting with the DfE Critical Friends.

energy. But CASE also recognised that technologies alone were insufficient - the environment must enable success.

The Grant Thornton Competence Centre evaluation of CASE highlighted this function stating that the centre’s work was felt to be of strategic importance not just to companies, but also the renewables landscape in Northern Ireland. It was reported that “a key benefit of CASE that cannot be understated is its contribution to the policy and strategy landscape for renewables and sustainable energy in NI. Consultees [to the evaluation] reported that much of the awareness and profileraising work undertaken by CASE benefitted their business by marketing NI’s potential to investors and international partners.” It was recognised that work led to a ‘step change’ in awareness of sustainable energy capability and an increased profile of Northern Ireland and domestic entrepreneurs in undertaking sustainable innovations, leading to FDI investment. Overall, it was clear that “CASE has become a ‘trusted voice’ in its

respective field in Northern Ireland and its contribution and the policy voice should be reflected on by policymakers and funding stakeholders.”

Therefore, while CASE was originally established as a competence centre to support innovation in sustainable energy led by industry demand, it became a necessary voice and advocate for wider change. CASE continues to support the creation of a regional ecosystem which can address technological and social needs through a targeted portfolio of innovations aligned to renewables, net zero and the circular economy.

Much more is needed, and our analysis suggests that of the many factors necessary to underpin a successful future innovation ecosystem and service sustained growth in Northern Ireland’s green economy ambitions, six are key: vision, focus, funding, talent, infrastructure, and inclusion. Only some are missing but only by addressing them together, can Northern Ireland exploit its opportunity in a way which recognises the shared human and natural capital across the region.

Our work also recognises that this overarching ecosystem requirement cascades down to various societal actors, each having specific and varied needs which must be addressed so they can positively contribute to net zero and circular economy targets. In particular innovation complimented by policy is key to delivering solutions for SMEs, especially those in rural areas which are less likely to engage due to time and resource constraints. The decarbonisation pathway is needed for all, and the opportunities are there to be shared.

Investments are happening but there is a question of how these work in concert to deliver the wider ambition and legislated targets. Leadership is essential and if a goal is a dream with a deadline, then there is less than 25 years left of the 2050 target and a clear need for a CASE to support a stronger greener economy.

Costing a united Ireland

In the public debate on a future united Ireland, the probable cost of unity to the Irish state has been a major point of contention, writes John Doyle, professor and Vice President for Research, Dublin City University.

On one side of this debate there are those who argue that the extent of the current subsidy (or subvention) from the UK Government to Northern Ireland, frequently quoted as between £10 billion and £14 billion, makes a united Ireland economically unfeasible. An alternative view argues that this frequently quoted figure grossly exaggerates the probable real cost of unity.

A recent report form Dublin City University (available to download on www.all-islandeconomy.com) contributes to this debate by deconstructing the UK subvention and analysing to what extent this expenditure would become the responsibility of a new Irish state. Based on this analysis, it models three likely scenarios for the fiscal position of the new state post reunification.

Deconstructing the subvention

The financial subvention from the UK state to Northern Ireland, is currently reported as £14 billion per annum. It is a public finance accounting convention that measures the difference between taxation raised in Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland’s allocated share of the UK Government's total budget and is not a record of money actually spent in Northern Ireland or of monies spent to provide services for Northern Ireland.

This report updates previous work on the UK subvention with the latest (2023) accounts. It clarifies how the largest elements are calculated – including pensions, debt, defence, non-identifiable expenditure and tax, and analyses the extent to which they would transfer as a cost to a united Ireland.

The conclusion of the analysis suggests that the starting fiscal deficit for ‘Northern Ireland’ within a united Ireland would be £1.5 billion per annum.

Fiscal projection for the government finances of a united Ireland

On the basis of the adjusted subvention figure, the report goes on to explore the potential fiscal position of the first 10 years of a united Ireland.

To the deficit figure of £1.5 billion per annum (€1.75 billion) outlined above, the model used in the report provides for a €1 billion annual boost to public expenditure in Northern Ireland to provide much needed additional investment in health, welfare, education, and infrastructure.

The projections also assume a gradual implementation of a 48 per cent increase in public sector wages, over 15 years, which is what is required to bring wages into line with the Republic, at a year one cost of €152 million per annum,

Delivering a globally

increasing by that amount annually over 15 years. While a shorter or a longer period of transition might ultimately be agreed, there is no realistic possibility that salaries would be increased by 48 per cent in year one. The cost of living in Northern Ireland, including housing would not increase instantly, and a 48 per cent pay rise would be highly inflationary in the regional economy.

This model also assumes that pensions would transfer gradually to Ireland in proportion to the number of years where tax and pension contributions are made to the Irish state, at an annually rising cost of €115 million.

Three scenarios

Three scenarios for public finances are analysed, following the pattern of economic growth in central Europe after those states joined the EU, and taking into account the trajectory of economic growth in both parts of the island in recent decades.

After allowing for inflation, Northern Ireland’s economy grew by just over 30 per cent, between 2000 and 2024, or an average of 1.3 per cent per annum. Using modified gross national income (GNI*) to exclude the distortions from multinational operations, the Republic’s economy grew by 71 per cent in real terms over the same period, an average of just over 3.2 per cent per annum.

The report argues that with Northern Ireland rejoining the EU and adopting the Republic’s higher public spending on education, infrastructure, and on R&D, a more competitive corporation tax policy, and a more equitable tax policy, there is no reason why it would remain so much poorer and so much less economically productive than other parts of the island. Economic convergence will take some time, but it will happen.

“This ‘subvention’ from the ‘Republic’, funded by taxes or borrowing is less than three-quarters of 1 per cent of GNI in year one... This is well within what could be afforded.”

John Doyle, Professor, Dublin City University

The cost of a united Ireland has been exaggerated firstly because what is called the UK subvention has been misunderstood and misinterpreted, and secondly because the potential for economic growth in an all-island economy, where Northern Ireland is once again inside the EU, has not received sufficient attention.

As referenced above, the inherited ‘subvention’ for Northern Ireland is £1.5 billion (€1.75 billion), based on 2023 data. Boosting public expenditure by €1 billion per annum, to provide necessary investment in health, education, infrastructure and welfare, while also allowing for the cost of gradually equalising public sector salaries and taking over pensions would see a full year-one cost of €3 billion.

Each of the modelled scenarios would allow the North to absorb all the increased costs of gradually equalising salaries and pensions and to gradually raise sufficient tax through growth to cover the initial deficit. This ‘subvention’ from the ‘Republic’, funded by taxes or borrowing is less than three-quarters of 1 per cent of GNI* in year one, and will fall gradually as the overall economy of the island grows and end within five to nine years. This is well within what could be afforded.

For the Republic, the costs associated with unity have tended to be exaggerated and the benefits of an allIreland economy largely ignored. Without underestimating the difficulties of a process of unification, the aim of this report is to contribute to the discussion by demonstrating the range of possible costs and benefits of this project.

The three modelled scenarios, Path A, B, and C are as follows:

Path A would replicate the performance of the most improved economies in Central Europe, where countries such as Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Romania have maintained an average growth rate per capita, of approximately 3 per cent above EU averages from 2000 to 2023. The Republic of Ireland, by comparison, grew at 2.7 per cent above EU averages. This would see Northern Ireland’s GNI catch up with the Republic in approximately 25 years. If this growth rate was achieved, Northern Ireland would no longer have a financial deficit by year five and would run a fiscal surplus of over €6.7 billion per annum by year 10 of a united Ireland or have those resources available for improved public services and investment.

Path B is a medium growth path compared to the recent Central European experience, maintaining an average growth rate per capita, of approximately 2 per cent above EU averages. This group included Croatia, Estonia, Poland, and Slovakia, and would see GNI* convergence with the Republic in approximately 40 years. With Northern Ireland achieving this growth rate the fiscal deficit would end by year six, and, by year 10, Northern Ireland would be contributing an annual surplus of €3.6 billion per annum to a united Ireland budget.

Path C is a low growth path compared to the recent Central European experience, but even these countries with a weaker performance compared to their neighbours, still maintained an average growth rate per capita, of approximately 1 per cent above EU averages – a group including Czechia, Hungary, and Slovenia. In this case convergence would still take place, but over a very long period. If Northern Ireland achieved a 1 per cent per annum growth boost after unity, it would reach break-even in year nine.

Northern Ireland’s social economy: Business making a real and growing impact

“The impact of the social economy has never been stronger than it is today,” says Colin Jess, CEO of Social Enterprise NI.

“Across every sector, there is growing recognition of the vital role social enterprises play in driving economic growth and development in Northern Ireland. From job creation to strengthening supply chains, the contribution of the social economy is more significant than ever. The sector is thriving, and at Social Enterprise NI, we remain committed to supporting its continued growth.”

This optimism is underpinned by the newly published Department for the Economy’s 2025 Northern Ireland Social Enterprise Sector Report. Since the release of the Rebalancing the NI Economy report in 2018, the sector has experienced notable expansion: the number of social enterprises has

increased from 843 to 1,225, employment has grown from 14,400 to 17,300 jobs, and turnover remains stable at just under £1 billion.

Beyond economic performance, the sector is setting benchmarks in inclusive leadership. The report reveals that 44 per cent of social enterprises are led by women, with 97 per cent having women in leadership roles, figures that significantly surpass those in mainstream business. Furthermore, a growing number of social enterprises are committed to paying the Real Living Wage, reinforcing their dedication to fair employment practices.

This growth and resilience are particularly remarkable given the global

challenges faced since 2018, including economic downturns, rising inflation, increased National Insurance contributions, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Jess acknowledges these pressures: “The sector continues to face the complex task of balancing profit generation with social impact. The diversity of social economy activity can make targeted support difficult to access.”

Social enterprises are fundamentally, businesses. They face the same operational challenges as other SMEs, with the added responsibility of delivering social value. While funding and investment barriers persist, one of the most transformative shifts would be increased public awareness of the social enterprise model, particularly how profits are reinvested to benefit communities.

Social Enterprise NI continues to play a central role in sector development. As the representative body managing the Department for the Economy’s Social Economy Work Programme since 2012, it facilitates cross-sector collaboration. “Private businesses are increasingly engaging with us to develop and promote their social value commitments, particularly when tendering for public sector contracts,” Jess explains. “This goes beyond supply chain inclusion; it is about forming meaningful partnerships where private and social enterprises work together to deliver services or share expertise.”

The organisation also plays a key role within the Department for the Economy’s Social Economy Co-Design Group, tasked with delivering the Minister for the Economy’s Social Enterprise Action Plan, launched in December 2024. The plan outlines 14 actions across five strategic objectives: raising awareness of the sector, supporting leadership and training, improving access to support, enabling investment, and addressing procurement challenges. Social Enterprise NI is at the heart of this work, driving progress and ensuring the sector’s voice is heard.

Colin Jess speaking at the 2025 Annual Social Value Conference in Girdwood Community Hub.

Strong relationships with representative bodies across the UK and Republic of Ireland further enhance Social Enterprise NI’s ability to share best practices and foster innovation.

A longstanding priority for the organisation has been legislative recognition of social value. Northern Ireland remains the only UK region without Social Value legislation. With a shortened mandate, Stewart Dickson MLA, Chair of the All-Party Group on Social Enterprise, is preparing to introduce a Social Value Bill, with full support from Social Enterprise NI. Such legislation could be transformative, but the sector must also rise to the challenge. To this end, Social Enterprise NI has launched a Leadership Programme, supported by Tenancy Deposit Scheme NI, aimed at nurturing future leaders across Northern Ireland. If you are a private sector organisation, there is a place for you on these programmes to develop cross sector relationships.

Looking ahead, Social Enterprise NI is focused on inspiring the next generation of social entrepreneurs. Collaborations with universities and regional colleges are helping young people understand and adopt the social enterprise model. Education is key, and efforts are underway to encourage curriculum directors to integrate examples of social enterprises into business studies programmes.

The sector is also embracing innovation, with many social enterprises exploring the potential of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence to enhance their impact and efficiency.

Social Enterprise NI invites public and private sector organisations to engage with its members and support the growth of the social economy. “Join us on this journey,” Jess concludes, “and help shape a more inclusive and resilient economy for Northern Ireland. Join the ever-growing number of private businesses who see supporting social enterprises as part of their mission statement.”

We would invite everyone to attend the Partnering for Impact event being held on 4 December 2025 in Newry to build cross sector relationships and our annual conference being held on 26 February 2026 in St Columb’s Hall, Derry

to hear more of the work of the sector and how you can get involved.

In closing, we reflect on the words of the Minister for the Economy in the Social Enterprise Action Plan: “Social enterprise offers so much in terms of inclusive economic development – and together we will realise its potential.”

This sentiment is echoed in the Minister’s comments on the sector report:

“The growth and continued support of the social enterprise sector remains a strategic priority to me.”

Social Enterprise NI stands ready and able to continue delivering on the work it has undertaken since 2012, championing the development and sustainability of Northern Ireland’s social economy.

W: www.socialenterpriseni.org

Jacinta Linden, CEO of Bolster Community.

The 2024 winners of Social Enterprise of the Year – The Workspace Group

Artisan markets: Catalysts for regional economic development

Central to this ambition is a recognition that sustainable growth is not solely driven by large-scale infrastructure or inward investment, but equally by the strength of local enterprise ecosystems, the capacity of communities to innovate and trade, and the role of artisan markets as dynamic platforms that stimulate entrepreneurship, attract visitors, and strengthen town centres.

ABC Council’s markets strategy forms part of a broader programme to stimulate investment, enhance productivity, and strengthen town centres as economic drivers. By reframing markets as strategic infrastructure rather than retail events, the Council positions them as spaces where entrepreneurial talent is nurtured, consumer demand is diversified, and civic life is re-energised.

Artisan markets are a proven economic model. Across the UK, they contribute an estimated £3.4 billion to GVA and support over 149,000 jobs, largely through micro-businesses. ABC’s artisan markets mirror this approach on a local

scale, stimulating enterprise, strengthening town centre economies, and contributing to broader regional resilience.

This strategy aligns directly with the Northern Ireland Programme for Government (PfG) 2024-2027, particularly in advancing economic growth, community wellbeing, regional balance, and sustainable development. Markets provide a low-risk platform for start-ups, promote local supply chains, and reinforce town centres as spaces of culture, commerce, and community.

Catalysts for inclusive growth

The introduction of artisan food and craft markets has created a flexible, low-risk entry point for entrepreneurs, start-ups, and micro-businesses. Beyond generating additional footfall and extending visitor dwell time, these markets serve as gateways into formal economic participation, providing a clear pathway from pop-up trading to permanent business premises.

The markets are aligned with inclusive growth objectives by lowering barriers to entry, fostering female and youth entrepreneurship, and enabling underrepresented groups to contribute to the local economy.

Over five pilot markets, more than 4,000 people attended, delivering increased sales for local traders and stimulating footfall across town centres. Local retention data shows that up to 67p of every £1 spent within the markets circulates within the local economy, underlining their role in strengthening economic resilience.

Building sectoral competitiveness in agrifood

ABC Council’s Food Heartland initiative, launched in 2015, has become a recognised stamp of excellence in the all-island agri-food economy. Prestigious accolades such as the Great Taste Awards and Blas na hÉireann attest to the sector’s growing international reputation.

The Artisan Food and Craft Markets amplify this impact by providing producers with direct access to consumers, expanded brand visibility, and diversified income streams.

Craigavon-based home baker Kat O’Reilly, owner of Nice Buns and Food Heartland Markets Champion, highlights the impact on local entrepreneurship: “I am a small business owner and I know firsthand how vital opportunities like this are for local producers. It is a fantastic platform for businesses like mine to reach new customers, showcase our handcrafted products, and grow within our own communities. The markets not only celebrate the incredible talent across the Borough but also provide a real boost to the independent businesses that make our local food and craft scene so special.”

Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon (ABC) Borough Council is embedding economic vibrancy and resilience at the heart of its capital investment strategy.

Lord Mayor of Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough, Alderman Stephen Moutray with Kat O’Reilly (owner of Nice Buns and Food Heartland Markets Champion).

Alongside the personal impact for the micro businesses involved, the wider impact of these markets encourages the fostering of sustainable food systems, embedding local supply chains, and contributing to the borough’s agri-food economy, which is valued at £376 million.

Partnership-driven economic development

Collaboration underpins the markets’ success. Working with local chambers of commerce, the Business Partnership Alliance, and town centre taskforce teams, the Council has ensured that the markets are shaped by, and for, the business community.

By fostering strong local networks, prioritising traders from each town, and curating offerings that reflect the unique character of each location, the markets have delivered tangible economic impacts: hundreds of new enterprise opportunities, higher town centre footfall, and measurable contributions to local GDP. These outcomes demonstrate how community-scale initiatives, strategically aligned with broader groswth priorities, can generate real economic and social value.

Learning from UK and European best practice

ABC artisan markets are designed in line with leading UK and European models, combining community-centred regeneration with food-led experiential retail. Large-scale initiatives such as Borough Market in London and Markthal in Rotterdam illustrate how curated market environments can revitalise urban spaces, attract tourism, and support local entrepreneurship. Similarly, Mercado de San Miguel in Madrid and Time Out Market in Lisbon demonstrate how gastronomy and experience-driven offerings can increase dwell time, drive footfall, and enhance the visitor economy.

Although these examples operate at a much larger scale, they provide bestpractice principles that ABC Artisan Markets take inspiration from: integrating local producers, embedding sustainability, curating diverse seasonal offerings, and creating engaging, experience-driven spaces that foster both economic and social resilience.

ABC’s markets also reflect emerging European priorities for sustainability and localism, drawing from initiatives such as Mercato Metropolitano in Milan, which emphasises local sourcing, circular economy principles, and ethical food systems. Through flexible market formats and low-risk platforms for microbusinesses, ABC is embedding international best practices while supporting community-focused, resilient economic development.

Markets as pillars of regeneration

The Council’s forward strategy positions the artisan food and craft markets alongside regeneration projects, townscape heritage projects such as those in Armagh and Lurgan, the Shop ABC Gift Card, and signature cultural events as part of a holistic approach to town centre renewal.

By celebrating heritage, creativity, and entrepreneurship, the borough is positioning itself as a competitive, attractive, and resilient economy within Northern Ireland, the wider UK, and the all-island context.

In this way, the Artisan Markets are more than a retail initiative; they are a strategic pillar of economic renewal, demonstrating how grassroots enterprise can underpin a modern, inclusive, and resilient Northern Ireland economy.

www.armaghbanbridgecraigavon.gov.uk

Street food at the Artisan Market in Armagh.

Shoppers in the Artisan Food and Craft Market in Dromore, County Down.

Infrastructure delivery shortfall

The completion of large infrastructure projects in Northern Ireland has been consistently marked by delay, cost escalation, and governance challenges. agendaNi examines the state of infrastructure delivery.

Despite the ambitions set out in the Executive’s Investment Strategy for Northern Ireland 2050, progress across many major schemes remains slow, contributing to an infrastructure deficit that impacts transport, housing, utilities, and economic competitiveness.

The difficulties of project delivery are long established. The York Street Interchange, first proposed in 1967 as part of the Belfast Urban Motorway, remains incomplete. Similarly, the Ballykelly bypass, under discussion since the 1970s, has not progressed. These early examples reflect the pattern seen in current projects such as the A5 Western Transport Corridor, Casement Park, and the wastewater system.

Wastewater

NI Water has warned that the wastewater system is “at breaking point”, with untreated effluent continuing to enter Lough Neagh. The Northern Ireland Fiscal Council has highlighted that NI Water’s funding model, reliant on short-term allocations, restricts its ability to plan strategically.

The £1.9 billion Living With Water programme, aimed at modernising Belfast’s drainage and sewage systems, has been scaled back, with major works at Sydenham, Whitehouse, Kinnegar, and Greenisland deferred indefinitely. This has had knock-on effects for housing approvals, with developments delayed or refused due to lack of wastewater capacity.

Although water charging is standard in other UK and European jurisdictions, it remains politically unviable in Northern Ireland, leaving NI Water unable to borrow or invest at the scale required.

Transport

The A5 Western Transport Corridor was approved in 2006, with plans to dual 53 miles of road between Aughnacloy and Derry at a projected cost of £1.7 billion. It has since faced repeated delays and legal challenges. In June 2025, the High Court halted the project on the basis that it did not comply with Stormont’s climate change targets. Infrastructure Minister Liz Kimmins MLA says: “Despite the setback of the judgment, I am determined to find a way forward that sees the road built as soon as possible to ensure that we save lives. Delivering

its priorities are expanding services of existing rail links, which means that several large ‘commuter’ towns remain with no rail infrastructure, which is likely to continue for the medium term.

“The most important point made by the court was the need for a new and safer A5 dual carriageway; that is my focus. My Department has lodged an appeal against the recent judgment which will be heard in December 2025. My officials and legal team have been working round the clock on the preparation of a robust and comprehensive appeal.”

Other schemes, such as the A6 dual carriageway, have progressed more quickly, though still years behind schedule. In addition, of 28 schemes planned by the Department for Infrastructure, 17 have been paused due to financial or environmental issues.

Furthermore, regions outside of Belfast remain chronically under connected, with rail infrastructure falling significantly short of need in spite of an increase in services between Belfast and Dublin. The aspirational All-Island Strategic Rail Review calls for the delivery of some new rail lines by 2050, however, under the proposals, Fermanagh would remain without any rail connectivity, and DfI has hinted that

One new ambitious project comes in the announcement of a long-term aspiration to connect Belfast City Airport to a railway line, which would make it the first airport on the island of Ireland to have a direct rail link. The draft 2040 masterplan asserts that delivery of the project would deliver £1.7 billion for the Northern Ireland economy. However, there is far from any certainty that the project will be delivered on time.

Casement Park

Casement Park closed in 2013, with redevelopment first announced in 2011 as part of a broader stadium programme alongside Windsor Park and Ravenhill. While the latter two projects were completed, Casement Park’s progress was blocked when the High Court overturned planning permission in 2015 following local challenges.

A £50 million pledge from Chancellor Rachel Reeves MP in June 2025 provides partial support, however, the project remains short of its full funding requirement. Both the Executive and the Irish Government continue discussions on the stadium’s delivery, however, it is certain that Casement Park will not host Euro 2028, meaning that Northern Ireland will not host the tournament.

Other delayed projects

Several other flagship capital projects have been subject to major delays or cost escalation:

• Regional Children’s Hospital: Initially costed at £250 million, delivery has been delayed by several years with costs rising substantially.

• Flagship portfolio (2015): Of seven projects identified, only the Belfast Rapid Transit system has been completed on time. Others, including the Belfast Transport Hub and A5, have exceeded both budget and schedule.

• Private sector regeneration: The £500 million Tribeca Belfast scheme, first announced in 2005 and approved in 2020, has not progressed, with the site still characterised by vacancy and dereliction.

The most significant recent completion has been Translink’s £340 million Grand Central Station, opened in 2023. The project has been widely welcomed as a modern transport hub for the region, although it exceeded its original budget by £140 million and related works remain ongoing.

Oversight and audit

Reports from the Northern Ireland Audit Office (NIAO) and the Assembly’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC) highlight widespread problems with delivery. Between 2019 and 2023, the cost of 77 major capital projects increased from an estimated £5.6 billion to £8.1 billion, which is a 44 per cent rise. The PAC has described overspends of more than £3 billion across major projects as “unacceptable”.

Only a small proportion of projects have been completed within their original time and cost estimates. Audit reviews point to issues with governance, planning approvals, procurement processes, and the absence of multi-year funding certainty.

ISNI

The Investment Strategy for Northern Ireland 2050 sets out priorities across transport, water, energy, housing, education, and health. The Northern Ireland Fiscal Council has estimated that between £2 billion and £3 billion per year would be needed to meet investment requirements. Current allocations fall short of this level, and repeated interruptions to devolved government undermine the ability to plan on a multi-year basis.

In comparison, the Republic’s National Development Plan commits €165 billion over 10 years, underpinned by multiannual budgets and central oversight. The scale of that commitment highlights the relative uncertainty of the Northern Ireland framework.

Despite the publication of long-term strategies and repeated ministerial commitments, delivery of infrastructure in Northern Ireland remains constrained by funding shortfalls, political instability, and structural challenges in planning and procurement. The result is a growing gap between ambition and execution, with delayed projects and cost escalations continuing to dominate the capital investment landscape. Delivering

The LirIC Interconnector and Northern Ireland’s energy transition

Electricity will be the backbone of our future generations and in order to meet these energy requirements while meeting long term net zero targets, we must do things differently.

The LirIC Interconnector will be part of the solution. It is a 700MW high voltage direct current (HVDC) electricity interconnector which will connect the electricity grids of Northern Ireland and Britain via a 142-kilometre cable under the sea and planned to be in operation by 2032. Interconnectors, and specifically LirIC, will enable the trade of power to improve security of supply and value for the consumer, facilitate the connection of additional renewable energy projects and in doing so support long-term net zero government policy targets and ambitions.

Glen Evertsen, Project Director for LirIC, says: “In recent years the primary focus has been largely concentrated on the gradual unlocking of the huge potential of renewable energy our country – and indeed, the world – holds. For me, it has provided the opportunity to work, live, and visit many different and exciting places – from cities and sites in the UK and Europe, to subsea construction vessels in the North Sea, to earthquake and typhoon resistant high-rise buildings in Taiwan. The rollout of renewable energy is undeniably a global quest.

“The growing message in the global energy sector as a whole, Northern Ireland included, is that ‘there will be no transition without transmission’.

Put simply, the shift to a low carbon economy cannot happen without a seismic shift in progress on integration of renewables onto the electricity grids.

“Electricity interconnectors are an essential, enabling technology, which are technically proven, commercially viable, and ready for deployment today. They enable the efficient utilisation and integration of renewables into the system by providing a route to maximise renewable use through exporting or importing renewable electricity and sharing capacity between regions,” he adds.

Evolution

Evertsen says: “It is also interesting to remember that the interconnection of grids as a concept is nothing new. In 1925 the Government took on the challenge of designing and constructing a ‘national gridiron’. William Weir, a Glaswegian industrialist, was commissioned to design a system which effectively interconnected 122 of the most efficient power stations and by 1938, the national grid became operational.

“The present-day task is to continue this ‘gridiron’ evolution and all over the world interconnectors are being planned and constructed given the recognised opportunity and benefits this brings both business and private consumers. It is somewhat coincidental that the LirIC project brings us back to Glasgow, not far from where the LirIC Project will connect to the national grid, to continue this ambition exactly 100 years later.

“Focusing back on the task in hand, it is clear that the grid needs to continue its evolution in response to the changing way in which electricity is generated and consumed. There is an ever-growing requirement for grid capacity where renewable sources are based, in Scotland or on the north coast of Northern Ireland, with an associated need to be able to efficiently transmit and consume that electricity,” Evertsen continues.

“To do that successfully takes a lot of foresight, planning and co-ordination from Governments, the public and private sector industry. Building an interconnector to join two land masses such as Scotland and Northern Ireland is a hugely complex process, and it will keep us very busy between now and 2032 when the interconnector is planned to be energised.

Glen Evertsen, Project Director for LirIC.

“Bringing together engineering, consenting and planning, supply chain and procurement, regulatory agreements, funding, amongst others can be a daunting challenge. Doing it in a coordinated, scheduled, sequential manner where each item has the potential to derail the project requires a wide range of stakeholders to work together in a way that some may have never been done before. Fortunately for the project, there has been good recognition of the need and benefits of the project and positive support from the regulators and stakeholders whose support is required to realise this important project.”

Benefits

Interconnectors help to deliver and strengthen security of supply by supporting the diversification of generation being imported and enabling neighbouring countries to support each other when domestic energy supply does not meet demand, lowering systems costs overall.

Northern Ireland currently has one operational interconnector, the Moyle Interconnector, which facilitates the export and import electricity to and from Scotland. A further onshore connection is planned, the ‘NorthSouth’ interconnector, which will enable the connection of Northern Ireland to the Republic

of Ireland. The all-Ireland Single Electricity Market (SEM) is also supported by the ‘EastWest’ and ‘Greenlink’ Interconnectors between Wales and the Republic of Ireland.

A further interconnector, the Celtic Interconnector, between the Republic of Ireland and France is currently under construction. The need for further interconnection between the SEM and other markets has been recognised in several studies to date, in particular the need for further interconnection to Great Britain.

With the project’s recent acceptance of a grid connection offer from the Northern Ireland Grid System Operator (SONI) and the completion of the first phase of marine seabed surveys, the LirIC project is continuing to gain momentum and is making significant progress. With careful planning, strong leadership and good cooperation from government and regulatory bodies we can collectively bring all of the enhanced security of supply, renewables integration, consumer value and economic benefits to the people and businesses of Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

W: www.tinv.com

Map of the proposed 142 mile cable route.

30th Annual Northern Ireland Economic Conference 2025

Wednesday 19 November

Titanic Hotel • Belfast

The Northern Ireland Economic Conference, now in its 30th year, is Northern Ireland’s premier economic analysis event and is unique in being the only forum that takes a high-level look at the performance of, and prospects for the local economy. It is firmly established as the annual autumn summit for Northern Ireland’s economic community, including policymakers and business leaders. This year’s conference comes at a time of unprecedented geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Sponsorship opportunities

There are still a small number of available sponsorship opportunities at this year’s conference. Sponsorship of the annual Northern Ireland Economic Conference is an excellent way for organisations to raise their profile with a key audience of economic decisionmakers and senior business leaders. For further details or to discuss how your organisation can benefit from close association with Northern Ireland’s premier economic analysis event, contact Lynda Millar on 028 9261 9933 or email lynda.millar@agendani.com.

Key issues to be examined by the expert speakers include:

a Global and UK economic outlook

a Medium term economic outlook for Northern Ireland

a A comparative analysis of economies, North and South

a Narrowing the productivity gap

a Creating good jobs and tackling economic inactivity

a Addressing regional balance

a Achieving net zero by 2050

a Assessing the impact of trade tariffs

a Recalibrating the skills agenda

a Promoting innovation and R&D

a Analysing public expenditure

a Infrastructure investment as an economic driver