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Election battleground: Oak Bay-Gordon Head A B.C. Liberal riding for 16 years, the NDP and Green parties seek to seize the white collar neighbourhoods of Saanich and Oak Bay
Sharon Tiffin/News staff
Shut out since 1996, the NDP is looking to finally retake the provincial riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head from the Liberals, as seen here from Mount Douglas looking south. But a Green Party candidate with name recognition could throw a wrench into the election for both provicial parties that have dominated the riding.
Edward Hill News staff
The leafy neighbourhoods of Oak Bay-Gordon Head are poised to be a key provincial election battleground for Greater Victoria, featuring a potential three-way race between NDP-Liberal rivals from 2009 and a high-profile B.C. Green Party newcomer. In a region dominated by the B.C. NDP, veteran B.C. Liberal cabinet minister Ida Chong held on to her seat by 561 votes, slightly more than two per cent, in the last election against NDP hopeful Jessica Van der Veen. The four-term MLA faces Van der Veen again, and Green candidate Andrew Weaver, a headlinemaking climate scientist from the University of Victoria. Neighbourhood voting polls
from 2005 and 2009 indicate the Liberals and Chong retained support in areas like Ten Mile Point, Uplands, Cadboro Bay and McNeill Bay. NDP support remained strong in Gordon Head and Mount Tolmie, and made inroads into neighbourhoods of Oak Bay. The Greens remained minor players. The question this election is whether Weaver and the Greens become a factor in this riding, and if they do, where will they draw votes from? UVic political science professor Jamie Lawson said that dynamic is a hard puzzle in an electoral area that is largely white collar, with some of the wealthiest postal codes in the city and has large population of seniors. Weaver could play the spoiler for the NDP and split the vote to
re-elect Chong for a fifth term – the race could be a “war between the non-Liberal parties and the centre-left,” Lawson said. On the other hand, Chong could fall victim to the flagging fortunes of a party beset with scandals, and which has seen many of its senior cabinet ministers abandon ship. “Ida Chong may face a meltdown by the Liberals. If that’s true, those voters may sit on their hands, or will chose between NDP and Greens,” Lawson said. “Voting Green isn’t as scary for a pro-market voter who might usually vote Liberal, but who believes climate change (is a problem).” It seems less likely for B.C. NDP supporters to migrate to Green, as the NDP vowed to shut down the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline, what Lawson calls the
“Voting Green isn’t as scary for a pro-market voter who might usually vote Liberal, but who believes climate change (is a problem).” – Jamie Lawson UVic political scientist
“litmus test” for provincial environmental platforms. “For what reason would a NDP voter vote Green?” he asked. “They might because they know who Andrew Weaver is, or they like what (Elizabeth) May does federally, but otherwise they’ll get a (NDP) candidate in government to make sure the Enbridge deal doesn’t go through. “(Van der Veen’s) party is
against Enbridge, is going to spread the carbon tax and is a party that is going out of its way to reassure businesses. You could see votes going to the NDP.” As voters tease out how their own interests mesh with political party promises, Oak Bay-Gordon Head candidates – including B.C. Conservative Party newcomer Greg Kazakoff – officially launched their 21-day campaigns and door-knocking yesterday. Weaver is banking on recent federal Green Party support spilling over into the provincial election – voters in Gordon Head largely backed the federal Greens in 2011, as did large portions of Oak Bay in last winter’s federal by-election. PLEASE SEE: Incumbent MLA, Page A2
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