Trend Forecasting

TREND FORECASTING Spring/ Summer 2024 (Created by Bhavini Handa)

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Introduction to Trend Forecasting

The Life of a Trend

References

DESTEP Analysis

Trickle Theories

Image References

Micro/ Macro Influences

The Future

Bibliography

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The Theme

The Business Transformation

The Origin of Experience Economy

The Palette

Diffusion of Innovation

The Runway

TREND

An Insight

/trend/ A general direction in which something is developing or changing. (Google, 2023)

By identifying the origins, charting the developments and understanding recurring patterns of trends, forecasters can help designers and brands with a prospective insight into the future.

Trend forecasting is a process of product curation and design, serving as a strategic guide for designers and brands aiming to stay ahead in the market. In the face of global economic shifts, supply chain challenges, and geopolitical factors like Brexit, brand designers and fashion retailers confront unprecedented challenges. Amid these external pressures, the focus on consumer preferences for busi

Into Trend Forecasting ness sustainability has intensified. Trend forecasters play a crucial role by researching and identifying social, cultural, ethical, and environmental shifts that are likely to impact future consumer behavior. By discerning trends, tracing their origins, and studying their evolution, forecasters provide designers with a visionary perspective of the future. Armed with these insights, brands can gain a com

prehensive understanding of their target market, enabling them to craft products that align with current and future consumer demands. Anticipating upcoming trends is essential for maintaining a competitive edge in the ever-evolving marketplace, making trend forecasting an indispensable tool for fashion brands navigating the complexities of the industry.

DESTEP ANALYSIS

Demographic

Economic

Sociocultural

With the global population exceeding 8 billion, the shift towards gender parity by 2050, growing job sectors, and rising literacy signify transformative trends.

Economic turbulence affects UK households, but the experience economy thrives. Business alignment with evolving customer expectations lags.

UK faces a stark gender pay gap, climate crises impact cities like New York, Hollywood strikes affect sectors, and family structures evolve.

Technological

Ecological

Political

The industrial metaverse holds high potential for growth. AI’s impact deepens, yet global green technology readiness is uneven, urging circular economy revolution.

High-impact solutions like remote tree cultivation, contributing to net-zero technologies. US residents’ outbound movement influences local sustainability practices.

Political analysis reveals global risks: Middle East conflict may induce recession, Sunak avoids pre-election tax cuts, Russia-Ukraine tension impacts economy.

Global Economic Growth

Evolving Experience Economy

Geopolitical risks, particularly the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are cited as potential contributors to a deteriorating global financial outlook, caution experts. A poll forecast indicates a potential decline in global growth from 2.9% this year to 2.6% next year. While economists foresee the world avoiding a fullblown recession, they underscore the possibility of “mild recessions” in Europe and the UK. (Geldard, 2023) This scenario prompts the need for fashion brands, retailers, and suppliers to strengthen contingency planning and intensify efforts to improve operational efficiencies, among other precautionary measures. (State of Fashion, 2024)

The Mastercard Travel Industry Trends Report (2023) unveils a 65% upswing in US spending on experiences from 2019 to 2023, propelled by post-pandemic pent-up demand. Despite economic uncertainties, consumers actively invest in entertainment, food, and various experiences, spanning destination attractions like theme parks to local options such as water parks and live events. Carl Foy, VP of Marketing at American Resort Management, says that the customer experience now commences with online interactions. Millennials, particularly, display a strong inclination towards unique experiences, with 67% willing to pay extra.

MICRO MACRO

Blurring Boundries in Digital and Physical World

The integration of the physical and the digital is on the rise. Technologies such as augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and the immersive internet are blurring the boundries between the physical and the digital spaces where we spend an increasing amount of our time. This trend is evident across various industries through the emergence of the digital twin—a virtual representation of a real-world object, system, or process. Whether it’s a

simple individual component or a complex entity like an entire city or ecosystem, the digital twin is constructed using data obtained from its real-world counterpart. In 2024, the distinction between the real world and the virtual world will continue to blur, resulting in digital elements becoming more lifelike while the physical world becomes increasingly adaptable and flexible, mirroring the characteristics of the digital realm. (Marr, 2023)

IN ENCES

FLU

WORLD IS A THEATRE

The trend- “World Is a Theatre” encapsulates the essence of the experience economy, highlighting the growing significance of immersive elements in the fashion industry. In this trend, fashion extends beyond mere clothing and transforms into a performance, where the presentation, storytelling, and overall experience become integral components. This concept emphasizes the idea that every aspect of the fashion world, from runway shows to retail spaces, is orchestrated to create a captivating and memorable experience for consumers. The trend aligns with the broader cultural shift towards valuing experiences over tangible goods, emphasizing the importance of personalised experiences within the fashion landscape.

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GHT -> FORESIGHT

EXPERIENCE Experience is a mental phenomenon.

It cannot be stored in the same way that a good can and it does not necessarily solve any problems like services. An experience is something that happens in people’s minds, it is determined by external stimuli and elaborated via the mental awareness that people have from earlier experiences, mental needs (such as self-realization, un-stressing, avoiding everyday life through escapism) and personal strategies. (Giddens, 1991)

The Origin The inception of the experience economy, as delineated by Pine and Gilmore in their book “The Experience Economy (1999),” marked a transformative phase in business dynamics. Emerging after the evolution of agriculture, manufacturing, and service economies, the experience economy presented lucrative opportunities for sales and profits. Pine and Gilmore (1999) contextualized this evolution within a psychological and production system logic, referencing Maslow’s pyramid

of Experience Economy of needs. As basic physical needs became met by societal production, attention shifted towards fulfilling more intellectual, emotional, and experiential needs, including self-realization. The desire for these higher-level experiences, associated with feelings and self-realization, propelled the shift towards the experience economy.

The societal explanation, drawing from Toffler’s wave theory (cf. Toffler, 1981), elucidates how the focus on experiences gained prominance over the

last decade. Additionally, an economic perspective suggests that the emergence of the experience economy around the new millennium was influenced by societal affluence. While increased wealth contributes to the demand for experiences, it is the confluence of psychological, economic, and production system factors that underscores the ascendance of the experience economy as a distinctive business paradigm. (Adapted from The Handbook on Experience Economy, 2013)

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NUMBER OF ADOPTERS

DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION

Classic Trend

Innovators

Early Adopters

Early Majority

Late Majority

Laggards

TIME

The Diffusion of Innovation Theory, developed by E.M. Rogers in 1962, explains how new ideas or products spread through a social system. It emphasizes that adoption of innovation is a gradual process, not occurring simultaneously in a population. (LaMorte, 2022) There are 5 established adopter categories as showcased in the adjacent figure that portray the diffusion of a trend.

While the Experience Economy was initially conceptualized by Pine and Gilmore in 1999 with their book “The Experience Economy,” its interpretation has evolved over the years. The contemporary understanding emphasizes the creation of personalized experiences by leveraging technological advancements.

Hence, the original concept of Experience Economy currently lies within the Late Majority stage and would foreseeably do so for a long time as it translates into a classic trend, while its evolution towards personalized experiences and technology is still not widely adopted and is situated between the Early Adopters/ Early Majority Stage.

LIFE OF A TREND Henrik Vejlgaard’s Diamond-Shaped Trend Model illustrates the life cycle of a trend as it progresses. Trend Creators and Trendsetters, at the top, represent innovators. (Early/Late) Mainstreamers, the majority, adopt innovations as they become popular. At the bottom, Conservatives and Anti-innovators resist or reject innovations, revealing societal adoption patterns. (Branco, 2021) Although a lot of fashion brands are investing in creating experiences, only a few are moving with the time are focusing on personalisation and technology. An example of this would be Perry Ellis, an American fashion brand that Uses Alexa To Recommend Outfits.

Users simply ask Alexa what they should wear to a certain event, and then Alexa responds with an appropriate and stylish outfit that considers the type of event, venue, weather and more.

Consequently, many brands are incorporating technology for personalized experiences and would be located at the Early Mainstreamers pharse. However, it is rapidly movinf towards the Mainstream. As indicated in the State of Fashion Report 2024 (2023), according to an International Data Corporation, 40% of global retailers and brands are in the experimental phase with generative artificial intelligence (gen AI), while 21% are actively investing in gen AI applications. Similarly, the report notes that within the next three years, up to 74% of retail and e-commerce companies have plans to augment spending on gen AI.

Trend Creators Trend Setters Trend Followers Early Mainstreamers

Mainstreamers Late Mainstreamers Conservatives

Anti-Innovators

TRICKLE THEORIES The Trickle Theories namely Trickle-Down, Trickle-Across, and Trickle-Up, provide insights into the movement of trends across socioeconomic levels. The Trickle-Down theory, rooted in historical contexts, represents that fashion originates in the upper sections of the society and gradually travels through the middle and lower classes. Contrarily, the Trickle-Up theory suggests innovation emerging from the streets, embraced by lower-income groups, and subsequently adopted by designers and upper-class spheres of the society. In contrast, the Trickle-Across theory showcases fashion moving swiftly across all socioeconomic levels simultaneously, as styles appear everywhere. (Procter, 2023) Applying these theories to our trend, a distinctive trickle-across trend emerges. Immersive experiences, spanning food, fashion, travel, and entertainment, captivate consumers, aligning with the interconnected domains of experience and technology. Brands are strategically utilizing virtual reality or artificial intelligence, surprising and engaging diverse audiences from all age groups. The simultaneous occurrence of these experiences across different sectors resonates with the trickle-across theory. This reflects the evolving landscape where technology acts as a means for immersive experiences across various social sectors of the society, showcasing the diffusion of trends within a technologically-driven experience economy.

Jacquemus’ Café Fleurs Concept Pop Up in Seoul

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THE TURE

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In 2024, the experience economy is set to redefine consumer interactions by seamlessly integrating technology , offering not just products but immersive, theatrically enriched experiences.

Businesses are leveraging advanced technologies to create magnificence, enhancing customer engagement. Hyper-personalisation plays a pivotal role, tailoring experiences to individual preferences. For instance, VR will transport users to customized worlds and Augmented Reality(AR) could overlay personalised elements onto physical spaces.

Brands will focus on creating memorable, shareable moments, fostering a sense of exclusivity. The trend foresees a shift towards selling not just products but curated, technologically augmented experiences, making a new era in consumer interaction.

THE BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION

Retailtainment- Physical stores might transform into interactive spaces, offering AR enhanced fitting rooms, smart mirrors, and immersive displays. These technologies aim to elevate in-store experiences, encouraging foot traffic. Brands will collaborate with tech companies to develop innovative werables , smart fabrics, or even limited edition tech-infused fashion pieces, creating a unique market niche.

Notably, brand marketing is anticipated to regain prominence as the fashion industry pivots away from performance marketing. Consumers’ emotional connections to brands are expected to play a crucial role, prompting fashion marketers to prioritize long-term brand-building strategies. (State of Fashion 2024, 2023) “In-store experiences can take shopping from being a transactional chore to a social activity, a stress-reliever and an enjoyable way to spend your free time” (Mullin, 2019) BOGA Menswear Retail Lounge in Chicago (on the top right corner in the adjacent slide) serves as a good example. Originally online, it shifted to a brick-and-mortar model in 2015, offering a laid-back experience. The fifth-floor loft features a lightfilled space with a cozy lounge area, showcasing a tufted leather sofa, low stools, and a brass beverage cart, creating an immersive blend of shopping and entertainment of a laid-back experience.

Adidas’s Ultraboost 22 is its first unisex runner to be created with a gender-specific fit.

Women’s cycling brand Veloine’s pregnancy cycling range

71% of consumers expect personalised interaction with brands (BOF, 2022)

Adidas’s Ultraboost 22 is its first unisex runner to be created with a gender-specific fit.

Hyperpersonalisation – Businesses will heavily rely on data analytics to understand consumer behaviours and preferences, enabling hyper-personalised recommendations and targeted marketing.

The shift towards hyper-personalization pushes a reimagining of fashion e-commerce, demanding a strategic investment in data and analytics activations. This involves creating dedicated cross-functional teams, encompassing product managers, marketing domain experts, software engineers, and data scientists. (BOF, Mckinsey, 2022) AI-powered styling apps and virtual fitting rooms contribute to the transformative journey, making online fashion shopping highly customized and interactive.

(Secret, 2023) The concept of ‘democra-sizing’ emerges, emphasizing personalized and inclusive products to minimize waste and appeal to diverse consumer needs. In this democratized design landscape, successful brands will make personalization accessible and affordable, catering to a broad spectrum of outlooks, sizes, needs, and cultures. (Hall, 2022) The future of retail, defined by Intuitive, Intimate, Individualized, and Interconnected experiences, aligns with EQ-Commerce, fostering highly personalized relationships for increased loyalty and profitability. (Lowry, 2023)

THE PA

This colour palette aims to capture the essence o with maintaining the balance between futuristic and

ALETTE

of technology infused, immersive fashion experience authenticity along with the excitement of theatrics.

DKNY at Metaverse Fashion Week, 2023

THE RUNWAY

FTFKT x Nike Dunk Release

Digital Storytelling- In 2024, the integration of Digital Storytelling emerges as a transformative force. Collaborations between designers, filmmakers, and virtual artists redefine narratives, blurring the boundaries between fashion and digital art.

While traditional methods like photography, runway shows, and store designs have been fantasy-building tools, the current era introduces new digital dimensions. Elements such as NFTs, video games, and virtual experiences enrich storytelling, with RTFKT leading the market in utilizing NFTs for digital space exploration. (Bain, 2022) Metaverse Fashion Week 2023 showcased a new horizon, featuring renowned brands like Dolce & Gabbana, Tommy Hilfiger, and digital fashion innovators. Dolce & Gabbana, pioneers in the Metaverse, extended their journey from MVFW 2022 on Decentraland. (Pasquinelli 2023) This shift signifies the industry’s inclination towards creating compelling narratives, tapping into the endless creative opportunities that digital aspect offer.

Over’s hybrid AR Runway in Metaverse Fashion Week

Augmented Reality Integration: In the evolving landscape of fashion runways, augmented reality will take the center stage. Viewers, equipped with AR-enabled devices, can immerse themselves in dynamic, interactive fashion experiences, revealing additional digital elements, animations, and relevant outfit information.

“As soon as consumer-ready smart glasses hit the market, there will be no brand without an AR strategy.” (Fortis, 2023) An exemplary moment witnessed during The Hybrid Fashion Show in March 2023, Over presented a hybrid AR runway across Milan’s iconic Piazza of Duomo di Milano, signaling the transformative potential of augmented reality in fashion shows.

Bella Hadid in Spray Dress, Coperni

Maisie Wilen’s Autum Winter 2023 Show

Hologram Runway at Amsterdam Fashion Week

Louis Vuitton Monster Flower Installation

Holographic Displays- This involves projecting models or garments into 3D spaces, introducing a captivating spectacle that captures the audience’s attention with mesmerizing holographic visuals.

A notable instance of this avant-garde trend unfolded during New York Fashion Week, where Maisie Wilen presented its autumn/winter collection through seven-foot-tall holograms. The dark, empty room became an ethereal stage as 28 holograms of diverse models were seamlessly beamed using over a hundred simultaneously running cameras, marking a profound integration of holographics into the fashion runway experience. (Hahn, 2022) Theatrics- In 2024, theatrics take on a more extensive role on the runway. For example, A monumental ‘monster flower’ installation, crafted by artist Philippe Parreno, served as the pulsating centerpiece in the Louis Vuitton show. The immersive experience was enhanced by lightbulb chandeliers swirling overhead, creating a captivating spectacle. (Sardone, 2022) This shift towards grandiose theatrics is driven by the industry’s response to the demand for high-impact shows capable of generating substantial social currency, as observed during the previous season’s fashion month filled with viral spectacles.

Brands are now compelled to elevate the theatrical elements of their presentations to meet the heightened expectations of audiences. (Chitrakorn, 2023)

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25. ‘Why Trend Forecasting is essential and how to use it to succeed’ (2023a) TIFFANY HILL STUDIO, 31 October. https://www.tiffanyhill.co.uk/post/why-trend-forecasting-isessential-and-how-to-use-it-to-succeed