Global market review of Champagne forecasts to 2012

Global market review of Champagne forecasts to 2012 After a few years of turmoil, with major houses like Mumm/Perrier-JouĂŤt, Lanson and Taittinger all changing hands, the period from 2006 to 2008 has been a relatively quiet one for the Champagne industry. But the peace has not lasted long. (http://www.bharatbook.com/detail.asp?id=8302&rt=Global-market-review-ofChampagne-forecasts-to-2012.html) The period has witnessed a continuation and acceleration of international sales growth, with 2006 and 2007 both recording double-digit value increases for exports.

Even the generally stagnant French market has shown some healthier signs.

But the impact of the global economic downturn is reversing some of that growth in late 2008. As Champagne’s major markets slide into recession, the sector’s fortunes are taking a turn for the worse, with key markets like France, the UK and the US particularly badly affected.

The big question is how long the gloom will last and how sharp the declines will be. just-drinks does not expect the 2008 sales figures to make particularly happy reading, but things are very likely to get even worse during 2009, when rising unemployment and falling disposable income will make a greater impact on sales.

The decline will only be arrested during 2010, and the global market will struggle to return to 2007 levels within the lifetime of this report.

This 2009 edition of just-drinks' popular global market review of Champagne outlines the issues facing the industry and we completely revise and update our market estimates - taking into account the recent downturn and likely continuation into 2009.

How will Champagne fare over the short-term future? Find out with this 2009 edition - the most up-to-date source on what's happening with the sector on a global basis.

Chapter 1 Introduction Here we paint the picture for what may be around the corner for the sector. It's not all doom and gloom as we report that Champagne's supply side is moving in the right direction, raising yields is helping stocks, and the region is doing ever more to protect the Champagne name.

Chapter 2 The markets As the effects of the global economic downturn begin to bite, 2007 will be seen – at least for the next few years – as a high-water mark for Champagne sales around the world. Since 2002, export volumes have surged from 112.3m bottles to top 150m bottles in 2007. Meanwhile, value has outstripped that impressive growth rate to leave the average bottle price for exported Champagnes at nearly EUR16.

This chapter provides market-by-market analysis for Champagne, for France and every major export market, with shipment values and volumes from 2002 to 2012 (%, millions of bottles and EURm's value) for every key market.

The chapter carries quotes from key executives from the sector, all of which were interviewed by just-drinks for this edition: “All the markets are not on the same level of maturity,” says Paul Bamberger, managing director of Vranken Pommery Monopole. “So for the Champagne business, yes, some mature markets may decline or be at the same level, but others will be booming. That’s why we are very confident in the Champagne business in the mid- to long-term level.”

Chapter 3 The companies All of the major Champagne producers are profiled. Information includes: turnover, sales, domestic/export split, brands profiled and vineyard holdings. Analysis of the company is provided by just-drinks and by the companies themselves (a "in their words" section provides extracts of interviews with each company).

Chapter 4 Production Like most French wine-producing regions, Champagne has a wealth of strategies, plans and controls designed to keep a tight rein on production and to give the industry the quantity and quality of grapes that it needs to meet international demand, year after year.

But this remains a geographically marginal viticultural area, where weather, in the form of frost, hail and rain, can decimate a year’s crop and throw the plans of grower and shipper alike into chaos.

Champagne, however, has been relatively fortunate in recent times. Over the past ten years, annual production has only fallen below 300m bottles on two occasions, in 2001 and in 2003, the latter when frost, hail and heat created a tiny crop with a yield of only just over 8,000kg/ha.

Given how critical production is to the sector, this chapter provides a complete review of the key issues the Champenois faces. Also provided is production data covering vineyard production, yield and grape price from 1998 to 2007 and Champagne stocks 2000-2007.

Chapter 5 The economy We felt the report would not be complete without a specific chapter covering what is turning out to be exceptional economic conditions facing the sector. Global recessions are bad news for consumer goods in general, and Champagne’s luxury positioning makes it by no means immune to the effects of an economic downturn.

Find out whether or not Champagne has the situation under control.

Chapter 6 Rosé Champagne As Champagne sales have risen around the world since 2002, one market segment has stood head and shoulders above all others in terms of development and dynamic growth: rosé.

Export volumes of pink Champagne trebled between 2000 and 2006, with another double-digit volume rise in 2007. Responsible for a measly 3% of export sales in 2000, rosé Champagne accounts for 7.5% of overseas volumes today.

The spread of markets in which it has an established position is expanding too. “It’s well-established in mature countries, but it’s developing fast in the emerging countries,” says Jean Berchon, corporate communications director at Moët & Chandon.

“The base is broadening… It used to be a trend, a flashy thing to last three or four years.” Similarly, Groupe Thiénot president Alain Thiénot recalls the soaraway success of rosé in Italy about 20 years ago. “It crashed down just as fast,” he recalls ruefully. But now, in markets like Japan, rosé accounts for nearly one in every eight bottles of Champagne sold.

This chapter looks at how the major houses are tackling the current interest in this growing segment. Exports and market share data are provided from 2000 to 2007.

Chapter 7 Protection of the appellation Find out how the Champagne producers are stepping up the fight to protect their appellation.

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