ISSN 2398-4406 ISSN 2398-4406
BCC ECONOMICS BCC ECONOMICS BRITISH CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE BRITISH CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY 2019 QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY Q3Q3 2019 The British Chambers of Commerce’s Quarterly Economic in its thirtieth – is thelargest UK’s largest The British Chambers of Commerce’s Quarterly Economic SurveySurvey – now–innow its thirtieth year –year is the UK’s private of business sentiment a leading indicator UKgrowth. GDP growth. Q3 the 2019, the results private sectorsector surveysurvey of business sentiment and a and leading indicator of UK of GDP In Q3 In 2019, results that UK economic conditions weakened the quarter a significant deterioration in manufacturing foundfound that UK economic conditions weakened in the in quarter amid aamid significant deterioration in manufacturing activity. sectorsector activity.
““
Our findings point to a worrying drop-off in UK economic activity, with unrelenting uncertainty over Brexit Our findings point to a worrying drop-off in UK economic activity, with unrelenting uncertainty over Brexit and a and a notable slowing in global prospects dragging down almost key indicators in the quarter. notable slowing in global growthgrowth prospects dragging down almost all the all keythe indicators in the quarter. The manufacturing continues toil under the weight of diminishing cashflow, weakening demand The manufacturing sectorsector continues to toil to under the weight of diminishing cashflow, weakening global global demand and disrupted Although the slowdown in a number key service indicators and disrupted supplysupply chains.chains. Although the slowdown in a number of the of keythe service sectorsector indicators was was relatively modest, slowing activity in the sector is a concern given its dominant share of overall UK economic relatively modest, slowing activity in the sector is a concern given its dominant share of overall UK economic output.output.
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Looking forward, weakening confidence and investment intentions suggest that unless is the taken the Looking forward, weakening orders,orders, confidence and investment intentions suggest that unless action action is taken UK’s current weak growth trajectory couldmarkedly drift markedly lowerthe over theterm. near term. UK’s current weak growth trajectory could drift lower over near
of Economics, Chambers of Commerce SurenSuren Thiru Thiru Head Head of Economics, BritishBritish Chambers of Commerce
Domestic Sales
Domestic Sales
GLANCE ATAT AA GLANCE -50%
-75%
0% -25%
-25%
-50%
+50% -50%
0% 0%
-75%
-100%
+75% -75%
+75%
+100%
+100%
...of manufacturers ...of manufacturers reportedreported sales in Q3 increasedincreased domesticdomestic sales in Q3 2019, down from +10% in Q2 2019 2019, down from +10% in Q2 2019
-25%
Export Sales
+3%+3%
UK GDPvs. growth vs. QES of balance of firms reporting UK GDP growth QES balance firms reporting 60% sales 2.0% improvedimproved domesticdomestic sales
60%
2008 40%recession
+15% +15%
20%
0%
0% +75%
-20%
+100%
-25%
-25%
-40%
-40%
-50%
+50% -50%
+75% -75%
-25%
0%
-75%
+25%
+25%
-50%
-75%
-100%
-3%-3%
+50%
+6%+6%
+25%
+100%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.0%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
+50%
-10%
+50% -50%
+75% -75%
0% +25%
-50%
-75%
-100%
-2.0%
0% +75%
-10% -20%
+25%
+50%
+1%+1%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
+50%
0%
0% +75%
+100%
2019
Balance of firms reporting export orders Balance of firms reporting improvedimproved export orders
50%
+75%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
-30% QES % QES % ...offirms service firms reported ...of service reported -40% Balance -40% Balance increased export orders in Q3 increased export orders in Q3 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2019, down +5% in Q2 2019 2007 2019, down from +5%from in Q2 2019 Manufacturing Sector QES Service Sector QES Manufacturing Sector QES Service Sector QES
+100% -100%
-1.5%
+100%
-25%
-25%
...of manufacturers ...of manufacturers reportedreported export in Q3 improvedimproved export orders inorders Q3 2019, down from +4% in Q2 2019 2019, down from +4% in Q2 2019
1.5%
Balance of firms reporting export sales Balance of firms reporting improvedimproved export sales
50%
0% +75%
-100%
0%
+75%
1.5%
-30% +100% -30% QES % QES % ...offirms service firms reported ...of service reported -40% Balance Balance -40% export sales in Q3 2019, improvedimproved export sales in Q3 2019, 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2007 2009 unchanged from Q2 2019 unchanged from Q2 2019 Manufacturing Sector QES Service Sector QES Manufacturing Sector QES Service Sector QES
+100% -100%
+50%
EU ref
2.0%
EU ref
+100%
0% +25%
-20%
2008 recession
GDP % QES % GDP % -1.5% +100% -100% QES % Growth (ONS) ...offirms service firms reported Growth (ONS) ...of service reported -60% Balance -60% Balance -2.0% sales in Q3 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 increasedincreased domesticdomestic sales in Q3 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2019, down from +17% in Q2 2019 GDP Growth Service Sector Manufacturing QES Manufacturing QES 2019, down from +17% in Q2 2019 GDP Growth Service Sector QES QES
-25%
+75%
+75%
+50%
20%
-20% -100%
0%
Export Orders
-75%
+50%
-100%
+25%
+25%
...of manufacturers ...of manufacturers reportedreported export sales in Q3 2019, improvedimproved export sales in Q3 2019, down from +10% in Q2 2019 down from +10% in Q2 2019
-100%
+25%
+25%
0%
+50%
-75%
-100%
-75%
0%
-50%
0%
-50%
-50%
-50%
-25%
-25%
+50%
-25%
Export Sales
0% +25%
+25%
0%
Export Orders
0%
40%
-100%
-75%
(+) = growth | Negative (-) = contraction PositivePositive balancebalance (+) = growth | Negative balancebalance (-) = contraction
+100% -30%
2019
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