North Carolina Economic Forecast (March 16, 2022)

FIRST QUARTER REPORT MARCH 16, 2022

Annual Growth Rates In Real GDP

• Twelve of the state’s 15 economic sectors are expected to experience output increases during 2021. The sectors with the strongest expected growth rates are hospitality and leisure services with a real increase of 22.8 percent, information with a real increase of 14.5 percent, business and professional services with a real increase of 12.8 percent, durable goods manufacturing with a real increase of 12.3 percent, and educational and health services with a real increase of 7.5 percent.

2.

8

2.

0

1.

7

2019

6.

7

2018

• For 2021, NORTH CAROLINA real GDP is forecast to increase by 6.7 percent over the 2020 level.

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3

4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

2020 2021f 2022f

GDP/Gross Domestic Product is a yardstick that measures the total output of a state’s economy for a given year

Year-End Seasonally Adjusted North Carolina Unemployment Rates 8

• For 2021, NORTH CAROLINA establishments are expected to add 143,500 net jobs during the year, an increase of 3.2 percent.

• For 2022, NORTH CAROLINA real GDP is forecast to increase by 3.3 percent over the 2021 level.

• Thirteen of the state’s 15 economic sectors are expected to experience output increases during 2022. The sectors with the strongest expected growth rates are hospitality and leisure services with a real increase of 9.3 percent; business and professional services with a real increase of 5.8 percent; information with a real increase of 5.4 percent; construction with a real increase of 4.6 percent; other services with a real increase of 4.3 percent; agriculture with a real increase of 4.1 percent; and finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) with a real increase of 3.6 percent.

6 • For 2022, NORTH CAROLINA establishments are forecast to add 103,200 net jobs, an increase of 2.3 percent.

4 2

4.

0

3.

8

2018

2019

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6 2020

4.

1 2021f

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9 2022f

• The North Carolina unemployment rate peaked at 13.5 percent in April and May of 2020 and by December of 2021, the state’s unemployment rate had fallen to 3.7 percent. By December of 2022, the state’s unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.7 percent.

Quarterly Growth Rates in Forecasted Real GDP

2021 GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to reach a level of $630,386.6 million in 2021. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is expected to increase by 6.7 percent over the 2020 level. This growth in 2021 will represent the first full year of growth since COVID-19.

8 6 4

9.8 6.0

2

For 2021, first quarter GDP increased by an annualized real rate of 9.8 percent.

During the second quarter, GDP increased by an annualized real rate of 6.0 percent. In the third quarter, GDP increased only by an annualized real rate of 2.7 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2021, GDP is expected to increase by an annualized real rate of 5.8 percent.

5.8 2.7

0 2021 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IVf

2021 Highlights 2021*

Percent Change

Current Dollars Total Gross Product

630,386.6

10.6

Constant (2012 Dollars) Total Gross Product Agricultural Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods TWU Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information FIRE B&P E&H H&L Other Services Government

535,332.6 4,603.7 830.9 19,470.0 92,415.4 44,204.4 48,211.0 18,822.7 31,503.2 30,520.6 27,085.8 99,960.4 77,189.0 42,606.5 16,643.4 9,780.1 64,302.5

6.7 -5.2 0.7 4.6 8.3 12.3 4.8 -0.4 4.2 3.7 14.5 5.6 12.8 7.5 22.8 4.0 -0.3

* Millions of dollars

2021 started off strong after an unexpected weak fourth quarter of 2020. Going into the fourth quarter of 2020, consensus estimates were that real GDP would grow between 6 and 8 percent. However, another severe spike in cases during the last two months of the quarter resulted in 2020 fourth quarter real GDP dropping down to a 4.5 percent growth rate in the U.S. and a 4.7 growth rate in North Carolina. The good news is that the first quarter of 2021 recorded strong GDP growth as the winter spike subsided. The second quarter of 2021 also showed a strong increase as vaccines started to roll out.

The Delta variant spike in August and September slowed the economy as consumers and businesses adapted to the increase in cases and deaths. In the fourth quarter the economy again confronted a new COVID-19 variant and experienced a rising inflation problem.

The fourth quarter experience of a new variant and continued inflation should provide a cautionary note for economists looking forward. We have to realize that the COVID virus will do what it will do, which will have a periodic impact on future economic activity and the resurgence of inflation will present a drag on economic activity in 2022.

Percent of Total Real GDP

2021 Total Real GDP Growth 6.7% 0.9 0.2 3.5 3.6

Agriculture -5.2 Mining 0.7 TWU -0.4 Construction 4.6

8.3

Durables 12.3

9.0

Nondurables 4.8

5.9

Wholesale Trade 4.2

5.7

Retail Trade 3.7

5.1

Information 14.5

18.7

FIRE 5.6

14.4

B&P Services 12.8

8.0

E&H Services 7.5

3.1 1.8

H&L Services 22.8 Other Services 4.0

12.0

Government -0.3

Percent of Real Sector Growth

2021 GDP SECTOR ANALYSIS The chart to the left presents the projected contributions of each major economic sector to North Carolina’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The real (inflation-adjusted) growth rate for 2021 is forecast to increase by 6.7 percent. Projected real growth rates for each sector (displayed in black type) are plotted on the horizontal axis. Projected percentages of GDP contributed by each sector (displayed in green type) are plotted on the vertical axis. The resulting rectangles show the expected weighted importance of each sector’s growth during 2021. All of the sector information presented in the table to the left is based on the new North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) definitions.

Twelve of the state’s 15 economic sectors are expected to experience output increases during 2021. The sectors with the strongest expected growth rates are hospitality and leisure services with a real increase of 22.8 percent, information with a real increase of 14.5 percent, business and professional services with a real increase of 12.8 percent, durable goods manufacturing with a real increase of 12.3 percent, and educational and health services with a real increase of 7.5 percent.

Seven other sectors are expected to experience growth rates, however, at levels below the overall 6.7 percent GDP real growth rate. These sectors are finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) with a real increase of 5.6 percent; nondurable goods manufacturing with a real increase of 4.8 percent; construction with a real increase of 4.6 percent; wholesale trade with 4.2 percent; other services at 4.0 percent; retail trade with a real increase of 3.7 percent; and mining at 0.7 percent.

Three sectors are expected to experience output declines during 2021.

These are agriculture with a real decrease rate of 5.2 percent transportation, warehousing, and utilities (TWU) with a real decrease of 0.4 percent; and government with a real decrease of 0.3 percent.

Quarterly Growth Rates in Forecasted Real GDP

2022 GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to reach a level of $690,068.4 million in 2022. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is expected to increase by 3.3 percent over the 2021 level This growth in 2022 will represent the second full year of growth since COVID-19.

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2.6

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For 2022, first quarter GDP is expected to increase by an annualized real rate of 2.7 percent. During the second quarter, GDP is expected to increase by an annualized real rate of 2.6 percent. In the third quarter, GDP is expected to increase by an annualized real rate of 2.2 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP is expected to increase by an annualized real rate of 1.8 percent.

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0

2022 If 2022 IIf 2022 IIIf 2022 IVf

2022 Highlights 2022* Current Dollars Total Gross Product

690,068.4

Percent Change 9.5

Constant (2012 Dollars) Total Gross Product Agricultural Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods TWU Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information FIRE B&P E&H H&L Other Services Government

553,206.2 4,792.3 828.1 19,791.2 94,164.0 44,911.6 49,252.4 19,466.6 31,873.8 30,235.1 28,541.1 103,603.2 81,675.6 43,808.4 18,191.2 9,780.1 66,455.5

3.3 4.1 -0.3 4.6 1.9 1.6 2.2 3.4 1.1 -0.9 5.4 3.6 5.8 2.8 9.3 4.3 3.5

* Millions of dollars

For 2022, North Carolina economic growth will begin to return to the pre-COVID levels of GDP growth around 2.5 percent. From the third quarter of 2020 through most of 2021, GDP growth was driven by the return to pre-COVID levels. After the strong third quarter recovery in 2020, the next five quarters (through the fourth quarter of 2021) are expected to average 5.0 percent growth as the economy returns to the pre-COVID GDP levels. By the fourth quarter of 2022, North Carolina real GDP is expected to be 4.0 percent greater than the fourth quarter 2019 pre-COVID level. Factoring out the rocky ride during 2020, the North Carolina real GDP averaged 2.0 percent growth during the 2020 through 2021 period. This is not much lower than the North Carolina real GDP growth during the 2010 through 2019 period.

We have several factors going forward that could upset the U.S. and North Carolina economies. First, we have the uncertainty of new variants of COVID-19 cropping up and creating a temporary slowing of economic activity and further compromising the supply chain. Second, is the continued problem of inflation. It is clearly not going away any time soon and an unclear plan from the FED creates another uncertainty. Third, while it is too soon to determine, the war in Ukraine presents another form of uncertainty for 2022. Three issues creating uncertainty are too many for the economy to digest, particularly if one or more go south.

Percent of Total Real GDP

2022 Total Real GDP Growth 3.3% 0.8 0.2 3.5 3.6

Agriculture 4.1 Mining -0.3 TWU 3.4 Construction 4.6

8.1

Durables 1.6

8.9

Nondurables 2.2

5.8

Wholesale Trade 1.1

5.5

Retail Trade -0.9

5.2

Information 5.4

18.7

FIRE 3.6

14.8

B&P Services 5.8

7.9

E&H Services 2.8

3.3 1.8

H&L Services 9.3 Other Services 4.3

12.0

Government 3.5

Percent of Real Sector Growth

2022 GDP SECTOR ANALYSIS The chart to the left presents the projected contributions of each major economic sector to North Carolina’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The real (inflation-adjusted) growth rate for 2022 is forecast to increase by 3.3 percent. Projected real growth rates for each sector (displayed in black type) are plotted on the horizontal axis. Projected percentages of GDP contributed by each sector (displayed in green type) are plotted on the vertical axis. The resulting rectangles show the expected weighted importance of each sector’s growth during 2022. All of the sector information presented in the table to the left is based on the new North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) definitions.

Thirteen of the state’s 15 economic sectors are expected to experience output increases during 2022. The sectors with the strongest expected growth rates are hospitality and leisure services with a real increase of 9.3 percent; business and professional services with a real increase of 5.8 percent; information with a real increase of 5.4 percent; construction with a real increase of 4.6 percent; other services with a real increase of 4.3 percent; agriculture with a real increase of 4.1 percent; finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) with a real increase of 3.6 percent; government with a real increase of 3.5 percent; and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (TWU) with a real increase of 3.4 percent.

Four sectors are expected to experience growth rates at or below the overall state growth rate of 3.3 percent. These sectors are educational and health services with a real increase of 2.8 percent, nondurable goods manufacturing with a real increase of 2.2 percent, durable goods manufacturing with a real increase of 1.6 percent, and wholesale trade with real increases of 1.1 percent.

Two sectors are expected to decline in 2022. Retail trade will decrease by 0.9 percent, and mining is expected to show a decline in 2022 of 0.3 percent.

2021 Year-End Employment Trends 0.1 5.3

Mining 1.8 Construction 5.6

5.6

Durables 3.4

Percent of Total Employment

4.8

Nondurables

3.9

4.1

Wholesale Trade 3.2

11.1

Retail Trade 2.2

4.1 1.7

TWU 1.1 Information 6.9

5.7

2021 EMPLOYMENT SECTOR ANALYSIS The sector employment analysis presented on this page is based on the new North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). North Carolina employment reached 4,578,300 persons by December 2021, a 3.2 percent increase over the December 2020 employment level. The state is expected to add 143,500 net jobs in 2021.

All 14 of the state’s nonagricultural sectors of the economy experienced employment increases during 2021. The sectors with the strongest employment increases in 2021 were hospitality and leisure services at 11.3 percent, and information at 6.9 percent.

FIRE 0.0

2021 Employment Highlights 15.0

13.2

10.5

B&P Services 4.2

E&H Services 1.2

H&L Services 11.3

3.5

Other Services 2.9

15.4

Government 0.3

Percent of Sector Employment Growth

Total Establishment Employment Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Wholesale Trade Retail Trade TWU Information FIRE B&P Services E&H Services H&L Services Other Services Government *

Year-End*

Percent Change

4,579.3 5.7 243.7 474.3 256.4 217.9 185.8 507.8 186.1 79.3 258.9 685.0 604.5 483.0 161.4 703.8

3.2 1.8 5.6 3.6 3.4 3.9 3.2 2.2 1.1 6.9 0.0 4.2 1.2 11.3 2.9 0.3

thousands of persons

2022 Year-End Employment Trends 0.1 5.4 5.6

Percent of Total Employment

4.7

Mining 0.0 Construction 3.7 Durables 2.3 Nondurables

1.7

4.1

Wholesale Trade 3.2

11.0

Retail Trade 1.2

4.0 1.8

TWU 1.3 Information 6.1

5.7

FIRE 2.3

2022 EMPLOYMENT SECTOR ANALYSIS The sector employment analysis presented on this page is based on the new North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). North Carolina employment is expected to reach 4,682,500 persons by December 2022, a 2.3 percent increase over the December 2021 employment level. The state is expected to add 103,200 net jobs in 2022.

Thirteen of the state’s 14 nonagricultural sectors of the economy are expected to experience employment increases during 2022. The sectors with the strongest expected employment increases in 2022 are information at 6.1 percent and hospitality and leisure services at 5.3 percent.

2022 Employment Highlights 15.0

13.0

10.8

B&P Services 2.6

E&H Services 1.0

H&L Services 5.3

3.6

Other Services 5.2

15.2

Government 0.9

Percent of Sector Employment Growth

Total Establishment Employment Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Wholesale Trade Retail Trade TWU Information FIRE B&P Services E&H Services H&L Services Other Services Government *

Year-End*

Percent Change

4,682.5 5.7 252.7 483.9 262.4 221.5 191.8 513.8 188.5 84.1 264.9 703.0 610.5 504.0 169.8 703.8

2.3 0.0 3.7 2.0 2.3 1.7 3.2 1.2 1.3 6.1 2.3 2.6 1.0 5.3 5.2 0.9

thousands of persons

2021-2022 NORTH CAROLINA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

FORECAST reports historical seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rates for North Carolina and the United States and forecasts the seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate for North Carolina. The seasonal adjustment accounts for variations in labor market conditions that cause regular fluctuations in the unemployment level each month.

The graph at the top of this page provides a summary of the monthly unemployment rates for 2021 and 2022. The solid blue line represents the United States seasonally adjusted historical unemployment rate. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for North Carolina is represented by the solid green line. The North Carolina seasonally adjusted unemployment rate forecast is represented by the solid red line. The seasonally adjusted rates for the United States and North Carolina can be compared directly and provide more reliable estimates than the unadjusted rates.

The United States and North Carolina started 2021 with unemployment rates of 6.4 percent and 5.5 percent respectively. Both the U.S. and North Carolina unemployment rates have fallen consistently to 3.9 percent and 4.1 percent by December. The North Carolina rate should remain steady through the rest of 2022 and close the year at 3.9 percent.

The data used in this report comes from the websites for the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov) and the North Carolina Employment Security Commission (www.ncesc.com) as of February 28, 2022.