Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2018

Summer 2018

www.belfercenter.org

TO REINVIGORATE AN INDISPENSABLE RELATIONSHIP The new Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship aims to connect Europe and North America.

by Josh Burek

At a time of questions about Europe’s unity, security, and prosperity—and about the commitment of the United States to its relationship with NATO and the European Union—the Belfer Center has launched a new Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship to reinvigorate a continental bond that has anchored global order, provided peace and stability, and fueled economic expansion for seven decades.

Led by Nicholas Burns, Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, and Karl Kaiser, the Project will provide policy-relevant insights for today and training to prepare transatlantic leaders for tomorrow.

“We are initiating this Project to expand the Kennedy School’s teaching and research on Europe and the Transatlantic relationship,” said Nicholas Burns, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and to Greece, and the Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of

Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard Kennedy School. “Europe is vital to the U.S. as our leading trade partner, leading investor into the American economy, and leading number of American treaty allies globally in NATO, our premier military alliance.”

CONTINUED ON PAGE 3 »

INSIDE: Securing Elections · U.S.-North Korea Relations · Reducing Sectarianism Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

1

From the Director BioEthics: As Harvard’s James Waldo listens, MIT Research Scientist / Ethicist Jeantine Lunshof makes a point during a discussion of biotech and ethics at an emerging technologies meeting.

A

t many research centers, the mission is found only on an “About Us” page. In our case, the mission is embedded right in our name: the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The and there is critical.

It reflects not a divided research portfolio but rather a singular convergence of the two realms that have the most power to shape humanity’s course—for better or worse—this century.

This nexus is nothing if not dynamic. From machine learning to autonomous vehicles, the pace of technological and scientific progress in recent years has accelerated at dizzying speeds.

The Belfer Center’s scholarship is evolving to keep abreast of these changes. Of the 20 active research projects we host, over a third were launched in just the past two years. Among them:

• Applied History • Cyber Security • Defending Digital Democracy • Homeland Security • Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship • Saudi and Gulf Cooperation Council Security • Technology and Public Purpose

Victorious Commander: Gen. Stephen Townsend (right) speaks at a Center seminar in April following his introduction by Center Director Ash Carter as our “victorious commander” for his successes in fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria as Commander of the Joint Task Force, Operation Inherent Resolve.

Harvard Kennedy School’s Gen. (ret.) William Rapp took part in the discussion.

2

What unites these diverse endeavors is our shared drive to provide useful, actionable research. For example, fueled by recent game-changing advances in genetic science, today’s biotech revolution promises personalized medicine but also portends weaponized pathogens, as well as troubling questions about the engineering of human life. We intend to advance practical scholarship that helps citizens, and the leaders who serve them, grapple with such challenges.

“More than ever, society today needs analytically driven solutions to the problems that arise in connection with fastpaced technological change.”

Even as our scholarship embraces new frontiers, our mission won’t change. Nor will the qualities that make the Belfer Center stand out, including our commitment to openness and bipartisanship; a truly global view; a spirit of public service; and a desire to train and mentor the next generation of leaders from around the world.

More than ever, society today needs analytically driven solutions to the problems that arise in connection with fast-paced technological change. As it has since its founding, the Belfer Center is proud to help lead this important work.

Newsletter | Summer 2018

Carter: Shaping Change for Good Disruptive technological change cannot be stopped, but it can—and must—be shaped for overall human good.

This semester, I joined forces with Frank Doyle, Dean of the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, to launch a Faculty Working Group on Technology for Governance and Governance for Technology tackling this issue.

This title, and the ideas our group has embarked upon, were inspired by Harvey Brooks, a pioneer in the intersection of science, technology, and policy. Harvey famously conceived of this intersection in two parts: "science for policy" and "policy for science." The former refers to the application of scientific and technological knowledge to help solve public sector problems. The latter refers to making policies that govern and advance scientific research and technical development.

Over four months, faculty from across all of our schools at Harvard and MIT came together to address digital platform integrity, ethics in the biotechnology revolution, autonomous vehicles, labor market shifts, and finally, digital government.

“The future requires that we apply our knowledge in the service of civic duty and public purpose.”

The future requires that we apply our knowledge in the service of civic duty and public purpose. The brightest and most creative problem solvers seek the hardest and most interesting problems. Our Boston community is in a unique position to influence these developments and we will continue to convene this group in the fall semester.

In the tradition of this great national technology and public hub, we have a historic opportunity to invent practical solutions, engage and convene leaders, and train and inspire a new generation.

MARTHA STEWART

Charting the Future: Nicholas Burns, Faculty Chair of the Center’s new Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship, introduces European diplomats and experts in a JFK Jr. Forum in May on Navigating the Crisis in International Relations. Participants (from left): Burns, Germany’s Amb. Peter Wittig, CSIS Director of Transatlantic Security Julianne Smith, Spain’s Amb. Pedro Morenés, and EU Amb. David O’Sullivan.

Bridging the Atlantic Strengthening the Transatlantic Bond » CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1

The Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship launched with a series of events on April 24, culminating in a JFK Jr. Forum featuring the Ambassador of the European Union to the United States, David O’Sullivan; the Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the United States, Peter Wittig; the Ambassador of Spain to the United States, Pedro Morenés; and Julianne Smith, Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.

The Project will focus its teaching and research on four core areas: Strengthening Western Democracies; Diplomacy; Security

Policy; and Economics and Trade. Its programming will empower students to serve in critical fields that strengthen the transatlantic relationship, including not only diplomacy, security, and development efforts, but also labor relations, trade, energy, cyber, and technology policy.

“The transatlantic relationship has been a bedrock of global security since World War II,” said Belfer Center Director Ash Carter. “We are committed to strengthening this relationship as part of our mission to build a more secure, peaceful world.”

The Project has outlined an ambitious agenda over the coming year, including: • Raising funds to establish a permanent faculty position dedicated to European studies.

• Creating a new study on the future of NATO led by Nicholas Burns and Doug Lute, both former U.S. Ambassadors to NATO. • Bringing world-renowned academics and practitioners to campus as fellows.

• Hosting the annual Pierre Keller Visiting Professorship on Europe.

• Convening an annual Transatlantic Conference in Spain beginning this July with the Spanish IE School of International Relations and support

“The transatlantic relationship has been a bedrock of global security since World War II.” –Ash Carter

from the Rafael del Pino Foundation.

• Organizing an international conference series on the 100th anniversary of the Treaty of Versailles in collaboration with the American University in Paris.

Democracy Under Attack: Muriel Rouyer, HKS Adjunct Professor, discusses democratic challenges during a panel on critical transatlantic issues.

Union and Division: In conversation with Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship Executive Director Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, former Foreign Minister of Poland Radek Sikorski discusses how populist party successes in the European Union affect the Union’s role on a global stage.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

For more on the Europe-Transatlantic Project, and for highlights from the launch events, visit

belfercenter.org/Transatlantic »

3

Security In Cyberspace Cyber Security Project Explores Different Facets of Cyber Challenges and Looks for Solutions

by Mari Dugas

T

he Cyber Security Project closed out the 2017-18 academic year with a robust group of speakers from government and the private sector to shed light on some of the most significant cybersecurity and public policy questions confronting policymakers and business leaders today.

The Project focused in particular this semester on bringing private sector views on key cybersecurity issues to the Belfer Center. Speakers such as John Hultquist (Director of Threat Intelligence, FireEye), Siobhan MacDermott (Global Cyber Public Policy Executive at Bank of America), Lisa Wiswell (Principal at GRIMM) and Alex Rice (founder and chief technology officer at HackerOne) brought various perspectives on how private technology, intelligence, and financial companies are reducing the risks of being attacked in cyberspace. Each speaker was asked to talk about the role of public policy vis-a-vis their companies and how Kennedy School students can prepare to

bridge the gap between public policy and private firms on cybersecurity issues.

The Project also welcomed esteemed public servants throughout the semester, such as Lt. Gen. (ret.) Kevin McLaughlin White Hat Hackers: Lisa Wiswell of GRIMM joined Alex Rice (HackerOne) in discussing the Pentagon’s “bug bounty” (former Deputy Commander program to find government system cyber vulnerabilities. of U.S. Cyber Command) and Chris Inglis (former Deputy Director at the predicaments in cyberspace. Belfer Center National Security Agency). Both reflected on fellow Nadiya Kostyuk gave a presentation their decades of experience addressing cyber on her recent publication on the impact of threats in government. cyberattacks on the battlefield, with a particu Finally, the Project’s seminar series is lar eye toward Russia and Ukraine. The Cyber Security Project’s final event of the semester was a unique opportunity to present ongoing a session with Joseph Nye, Professor Emeritus research to the public. The semester began with a talk by Jack Goldsmith (Professor of at Harvard Kennedy School. Nye presented his Law, Harvard Law School) and Stuart Russell new paper, “Normative Restraints on Cyber (Belfer Center Visiting Fellow), who preConflict” to a standing room only audience to sented a working paper on the United States’ round out the year.

Ensuring Responsible Use of Artificial Intelligence

A

rtificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape not only the interface between people and machines but also fundamental questions of privacy and equality in all areas of society—from finance and healthcare to retail and manufacturing.

To ensure that ethical and policy issues keep pace with AI and machine learning and that this game-changing technology serves people—not the other way around—the Belfer Center is creating The Council on the Responsible Use of Artificial Intelligence.

“Artificial intelligence and machine learning have potential to improve our lives in all sorts of exciting ways,” said Dan Schrag, Co-Director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program. “But there are also risks.” The Council, supported by Bank of America, will help investigate how to

4

use these technologies in a responsible manner across various domains.

“Artificial intelligence and machine learning have potential to improve our lives in all sorts of exciting ways.

But there are also risks.”

—Dan Schrag

“It is difficult to overstate AI’s potential impact on society,” said Ash Carter, Director of the Belfer Center and former Secretary of Defense. “The Council will leverage Harvard’s unmatched convening power to help ensure that this impact is overwhelmingly on the side of public good.”

Newsletter | Summer 2018

The Council will convene leaders from groups including government, business, academia, and civil society to learn about the latest technological developments in AI and machine learning, discuss emerging legal, moral, and policy implications, and investigate ways to develop responsible AI platforms.

The new Council will be housed at the Belfer Center, and will work with digitalHKS, a school-wide initiative focused on research and education on digital technology policy.

In addition, the Council will work with the Belfer Center’s Cyber Security Project and its recently launched Initiative on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Led

by Cyber Security Project Director Michael Sulmeyer, that initiative explores implications of AI and machine learning on cybersecurity and cyberspace policy.

Fortifying Elections: At the D3P workshop, a group of election officials from across the U.S. discuss how to counter a simulated cyber attack taking place on election day in their fictitious state.

Officials from 38 States Learn to Fortify Elections Against Attacks M

ore than 120 state and local election officials from 38 states gathered in Cambridge in March to participate in role-playing exercises that provided them with tips, tools, and training to fortify their election systems against cyber attacks and information operations.

Convened by the Belfer Center’s Defending Digital Democracy Project (D3P), the twoday event featured a tabletop exercise (TTX) scenario for officials that simulated attacks on election systems ranging from hacks and social media misinformation to manipulation of voter information and trust.

“[T]he most important thing I’ve had a chance to be part of.”

—Maj. Daniel Bartlett

D3P Executive Director Caitlin Conley, a Major in the U.S. Army and HKS student, worked with more than 30 Harvard and MIT graduate students to organize the conference. Attending election officials learned how to better prepare, defend, and respond to a range of attacks on the integrity of American elections and how to empower their

Protecting the Vote: Eric Rosenbach and D3P leaders Matt Rhoades, Robby Mook, and Caitlin Conley welcome election officials to the conference.

colleagues back home with this knowledge as they prepare for the 2018 and 2020 elections.

The Cambridge TTX event was the largest of several simulation exercises D3P has run for election and campaign officials since the fall. The Defending Digital Democracy project was launched in summer 2017 by Belfer Center Co-Director and former Pentagon chief of staff and “cyber czar” Eric Rosenbach, along with Robby Mook and Matt Rhoades, former campaign directors for Hilary Clinton and Mitt Romney, respectively.

Participants were divided among four fictitious states and, over a period of months hyper-condensed into a few hours, were confronted with and learned how to respond to a

worst-case scenario of voting list hacks, fake social media claims, misleading information about candidates, and communications campaigns aimed at sowing voter distrust.

Mac Warner, Sec. of State for West Virginia, agreed with many officials that the conference was invaluable. “This has been a tremendously helpful exercise and resource that you have provided to those of us out in the states,” he said.

Harvard Kennedy School student and Marine Corps Major Daniel Bartlett, who has been deployed four times to Afghanistan and Iraq, said working with the D3P team to secure elections is “the most important thing I have had a chance to be part of in my professional career.”

D3P “Hackathon” Sparks Innovation Ingenuity was on full display in March as students from Tufts, Carnegie Mellon, Harvard, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, and other leading universities pitched ideas to prevent or reduce malicious cyber attacks. Their proposals were part of Defending Digital Democracy’s first Information Operations Technical and Policy Hackathon and the culmination of a D3P conference dedicated to fortifying election security.

Winnona DeSombre and Gabriella Roncone, computer science students from Tufts, claimed the grand prize of $10,000 for their development of Sanity Check, an app that identifies information operations and unverifiable information over social media.

“What’s important is that—from a user side—individuals understand where their information is coming from, while social media

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Hackathon Winners: Gabriella Roncone (left) and Winnona DeSombre, present their Sanity Check app proposal to the judges of the hackathon contest.

companies can understand how their platform is being used for information operations and create risk rules accordingly,” DeSombre said.

“What I find to be so cool about this is the patterns,” Roncone said. “There’s no single red flag that marks something as illegitimate or legitimate. A single risk rule alone means nothing, but together they highlight real components of information operations.”

5

Q&A: John Park Following the adoption of the Panmunjom Declaration by South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un in April, in which they announced their interest in ending the Korean War and ridding the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons, the Belfer Center’s John Park spoke to the Harvard Gazette about the potential impact of their announcement. Park, Director of the Center’s Korea Working Group, discussed what’s driving the Panmunjom talks, the likely outcome of a possible accord, and what both sides will have to overcome to deliver lasting results. Following are excerpts from the interview.

The Possible Impact of Korean Talks GAZETTE: As someone who’s spent many years studying this region, were you surprised by this announcement?

PARK: I think the Panmunjom Declaration is very consistent with previous inter-Korean agreements. These landmark agreements have similar language, so I think it more fits a pattern rather than being an outlier. However, after the elevated tensions last year resulting from North Korea’s nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile testing, the Panmunjom Declaration is a particularly welcome development.

GAZETTE: Why now?

PARK: There’s a big debate about why now. At the core of that debate is whether Chairman Kim Jong-un agreed to the summit meetings out of a position of weakness (i.e., sanctions biting hard) or strength (advanced nuclear weapons development). I argue that Kim did so out of a sense of unique opportunity to explore what South Korean and American leaders are prepared to offer for denuclearization. President Moon Jae-in assumed most of the risk by investing a

lot of South Korea’s political capital to accelerate the momentum for a diplomatic off-ramp with the summit.

GAZETTE: So it was South Korea’s efforts that really moved the ball here?

Seeing how dangerous the situation became on the Korean Peninsula last year, with an elevated risk of military conflict, President Moon acted swiftly in deploying South Korea’s political capital. The game plan began with arranging North Korea’s participation in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, quickly followed by a senior South Korean delegation’s meeting with Chairman Kim in Pyongyang.

That was followed by the South Korean national security adviser’s meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office, where he agreed to a summit with Chairman Kim. PARK:

GAZETTE: Is this a legitimate diplomatic break-

contentious issues, moving from an armistice to a peace treaty and also from the current state of nuclear weapons development in North Korea to denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula — all of these things are incredibly complex. But we’re looking at it from the perspective now of what kind of process can be put in place so that these difficult issues can be resolved in a way that can meet the security needs of all the countries involved.

“This is just the beginning. Whether it’s a short-lived process or something that gains momentum remains to be seen.”

through, or merely for show?

PARK: It has to be viewed through the perspective of a process. The notion of tackling these very

GAZETTE: What will you be looking for to see whether this is more than just a splashy event

KOREA FOUNDATION FOR ADVANCED STUDIES

from the summit?

PARK: This is just the beginning. Whether it’s a short-lived process or something that gains momentum remains to be seen. However, we have a planned U.S.-North Korea summit coming up next. I think from what’s been agreed to in the inter-Korean context, more on the side of principles and goals and aspirations, we now have a nascent foundation on which the U.S. and North Korean leaders can get into more of the details of what a denuclearization mechanism may look like.

Trilateral Talks: John Park, Director of the Belfer Center’s Korea Working Group, speaks at the Trilateral Dialogue on “U.S.-China-Korea Participation” in February, 2017. Also pictured: Evan Feigenbaum (Paulson Inst.) and Prof. Yao Yang (Peking University).

6

Newsletter | Summer 2018

To read the Gazette’s full interview with Park, visit

belfercenter.org/ParkGazette »

Applying Expertise to Korean Relations U.S.-Korea relations, especially related to nuclear weapons issues, have long been a focus of the Belfer Center and its experts, who research, analyze, and take part in relevant security-related activities. The Center-based Harvard Korea Working Group addresses key policy questions about major security transformations on the Korean Peninsula through activities that brings together practitioners, researchers, and professional degree students. These activities – including workshops and conferences in the U.S. and Korea – enable the Group to better understand and address rapidly evolving security challenges on the Korean Peninsula. The Working Group was founded by the late Stephen Bosworth, former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea and Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center.

GREG GIBSON/AP

KIM HONG-JI/AP

(Then)

1998

Then U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Stephen Bosworth (left) joined President Bill Clinton in a meeting with Korean community leaders in Seoul, South Korea on Nov. 21, 1998 to discuss issues related to the Korean Peninsula.

2012

South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan (right) greets then U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Ash Carter before their meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Seoul on July 26, 2012.

2018

Belfer Center Executive Director for Research Gary Samore (right) speaks on a panel titled, “The Outlier: North Korea,” moderated by Center Senior Fellow David Sanger (left) at the 2015 ASAN Plenum, held in Seoul in April.

ASAN INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES

AHN YOUNG-JOON/AP

(Now)

2015

Then U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, a Belfer Center Senior Fellow, talks with South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se during a meeting to discuss North Korean issues in Seoul on Jan. 29, 2015.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

7

Diversifying Diplomacy: Ambassador Laura Holgate, former U.S. Representative to the Vienna Office of the United Nations, speaks on “Increasing Women’s Representation and Leadership in National Security” during a Women in Defense, Diplomacy, and Development event.

Connections: Following a career discussion with students, Ambassador Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley (center), exchanges business cards with Jesca Muyingo (right), the UN Chief of UNMIL Radio and Focal Point for Women in Liberia, and Meredith Davis Tavera, Charles P. Rangel Fellow in the U.S. State Dept.

Student Group Aims to Improve Gender Balance in the National Security Field

by Alexandra Schmitt and Gabrielle Tarini

W

omen are beginning to make up a larger and more visible portion of the national security establishment, but they still remain in the minority of leadership positions. Women of color confront unique barriers to inclusion in a field that has traditionally been, in the words of former National Security Advisor and Belfer Center Senior Fellow Susan Rice, “white, male, and Yale.” When we (authors) started as students at HKS, we were disappointed by the lack of female representation at the Belfer Center and at security-related events. We created W3D: Women in Defense, Diplomacy, and Development, a student organization, to make a meaningful contribution to addressing the gender gap in security studies at HKS and in the

broader foreign policy community. We aim to bring more female leaders to campus—and more effectively utilize those already on campus—to discuss their professional accomplishments, network with current students, and provide specific guidance and tools to women looking to enter or advance within the field. W3D is a student chapter of a Harvard-wide alumni organization founded by HKS National Security Fellow Liesl Carter in 2013.

“We created W3D to make a meaningful contribution to addressing the gender gap in security studies.”

We are grateful for our partnership with the Belfer Center, which has provided support for our events throughout the semester. In March, we inaugurated W3D with a talk and reception featuring Ambassador Laura Holgate, a Belfer Center Senior Fellow who championed women’s inclusion while serving as the US Representative to the IAEA. We also hosted a “Female Faculty of Belfer” lunch series, where Professors Dara Kay Cohen and Juliette Kayyem highlighted their research and career paths. We have also co-sponsored events with female leaders like Michèle Flournoy, Gina AbercrombieWinstanley, and Elissa Slotkin.

O

n April 28, students and professionals gathered at the Harvard Kennedy School for a day of discussions and activities focused on the advancement of women in leadership.

The student-run Women in Power Conference, co-sponsored by the Belfer Center, featured panel discussions on topics including how feminism differs across borders, the role of women in various social movements, and the unique issues facing women of color.

In workshops, attendees learned skills for negotiating pay raises and promotions, as well as strategies to mitigate gender bias in the workplace.

The group Emerge Massachusetts led a workshop on how women can prepare to run for office.

8

Michèle Flournoy, a Belfer Center Senior Fellow and former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, led a conversation on women in national security. She discussed the challenges of recruiting and retaining women to national security careers and her personal experience as a female leader in a male-dominated field.

Other prominent speakers included U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, activist Brittany Packnett, and actress and author Amber Tamblyn. Facebook executive Sheryl Sandberg also sent a special video to the Women in Power Conference.

Newsletter | Summer 2018

MARTHA STEWART

At Women in Power Conference, A Focus on Fighting for Equality

Securing Equality: Belfer Center Senior Fellow Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, discusses her experiences and the challenges around increasing the number of women in national security leadership positions.

Spotlight: Dorothy Zinberg A Harvard Pioneer for Science and Women

by Josh Burek

that I take on responsibility for a subset of lectures in the course was startling,” Zinberg recalls.

“I wrote two lectures which in turn opened up an entirely new world of opportunities. When Derek Bok became President, I worked with him on the future of women at Harvard, and the many subsequent grants I received in science and technology policy always contained a sample of women.”

Carnegie, Sloane, and Ford Foundations. Beyond Harvard, she has served as a Distinguished Fellow of the Aspen Institute, a member of the International Council for Science Policy Studies, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the Council on Foreign Relations.

GAIL OSKIN

N

“I might have the title of teacher but I have learned as much from students as they have from me.”

Merging Science and Society: Dorothy Zinberg accepts the 2018 Harvard Signet Medal at the annual meeting of Harvard’s historic Signet Society, for her work in bringing “science to society, and society to science.”

That experience has made her a valuable member of many boards, committees, and advisory panels, including the Board of International Scientific Exchanges at the National Academy of Sciences; the American Association for the Advancement of Science Committee on Science and Social Responsibility; the National Science Foundation Program on Ethical and Human Value Implications of Science; the Erik Erikson Scholars at Austen Riggs Institute; and at Harvard, a founding member of the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society; a faculty associate at Harvard Law School; and an affiliate of the Center for Public Leadership. She has also been a consultant to Chase Manhattan Bank, the MITRE corporation, and the MacArthur, MARTHA STEWART

orman Mailer. Leonard Bernstein. T.S. Eliot. Robert Frost. Those are just some of the famous winners of Harvard Signet Society’s prestigious Signet Award. This spring, one of the Belfer Center’s most admired members was added to their ranks: Dorothy Zinberg. In announcing the prize, the Society saluted Zinberg for “bringing science to society and society to science.” It is a fitting description of her life’s work, but also a pithy summary of the Belfer Center that she has done so much to cultivate.

Together with Paul Doty, Michael Nacht, and Al Carnesale, Dr. Zinberg is recognized as one of the founders of the Belfer Center.

From the outset, they envisioned an intellectual community that would, in current Director Ash Carter’s words, “combine the spirit of science and the life of the mind with practical affairs.”

Leveraging her own remarkable background as both a biochemist and sociologist, Zinberg has mentored generations of scientists, particularly female ones, to help them apply their research effectively on behalf of a more secure, peaceful world. The legacy began with a note of dissent she delivered to one of Harvard’s most famous professors. As a young teaching fellow, Zinberg appreciated psychologist Erik Erikson’s “brilliant” lectures on human development, but, after one class, she noted to him that they took no account of women. His response—“So you do it”—became an important impetus for Zinberg’s pioneering work in higher education.

“There were just a few women teaching fellows on the entire faculty, and the suggestion

Building the Foundation: Dorothy Zinberg at a Belfer Center founders’ celebration in 2007 with (from left) Center Founder Paul Doty, Michael Nacht, and Albert Carnesale.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

As director of seminars and events in formative years, it was Zinberg who helped establish the Belfer Center’s reputation for unmatched convening power, attracting world-renowned scientists, academics, government officials, journalists, and military and business leaders.

“She was the founder who really developed the Center’s spirit of collaboration,” said Steven Miller, Director of the Center’s International Security Program. This collaboration extended to the classroom environment. “I might have the title of teacher but I have learned as much from students as they have from me,” she said “At least I hope they feel this way.”

Today, Zinberg is a frequent participant and guest of honor at the Center’s lunch discussions and seminars. She is working on a history of the graduates of the Chemistry Department at University College London (1968-2018).

To the students at Harvard Kennedy School and the Center, Zinberg offers a piece of wisdom embraced by her late husband, Harvard Medical School Professor of Psychiatry Dr. Norman Zinberg, and originally gleaned from the author James Thurber: “Don’t get it right. Get it written.”

9

MARTHA STEWART

Belfer Cent

Continuing to Serve: Caroline Kennedy, former Ambassador to Japan, joins Future of Diplomacy Project Faculty Chair Nicholas Burns in a presentation to students and fellows on U.S.-Japan relations, diplomacy, and public service.

Kennedy is a former Future of Diplomacy Fisher Family Fellow.

Revolution and Gender: Hind Ahmed Zaki, Research Fellow with the Middle East Initiative, discusses “In the Shadow of the State: Gender Contestations in Post-Revolutionary Tunisia and Egypt” during a Middle East Initiative seminar.

Zaki’s research includes investigations into what constitutes state violence.

Igniting Change: Former Belfer Center Fellow Bonnie Jenkins (second from right), State Department Coordinator for Threat Reduction, at the Black Policy Conference in April with Col. Myles B. Caggins III, Rosiland Jordan (Al Jazeera), and Lt. Gen. Charles Hooper. Belfer Center Exec. Director Gary Samore also participated.

Preventing Catastrophe: The Belfer Center’s Graham Allison, a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy, discusses North Korea's nuclear program in his interview with Clifford Chanin, 9/11 Memorial Vice-President, in the Museum auditorium in New York in March.

Shared Goal: With a painting of Mt. Vesuvius behind them, the Belfer Center's Elbe Group, consisting of former U.S. and Russian military and intelligence officials, meets in Naples in March to discuss sensitive issues of U.S.-Russia relations. The group seeks to keep an open channel of communications between the U.S. and Russia.

10

COURTESY KEVIN RYAN

MONIKA GRAFF, 9/11 MEMORIAL

COURTESY: BLACK STUDENT CONFERENCE

From the Inside: Samantha Power, Harvard Kennedy School Professor and former U.S. Ambassador to the UN, joins her former White House colleague Ben Rhodes (right) and The Final Year director Greg Barker in a JFK Jr. Forum discussion of the documentary on the final year of the Obama administration.

Newsletter | Summer 2018

ter in Action

Presidential Attention: Belfer Center Director Ash Carter points out a document in his office to Harvard President Drew Faust in March. Faust spoke earlier at a Belfer Center Board Lunch about her presidency at Harvard and her hopes for the University’s future. Faust plans to step down in June.

Senatorial Insight: U.S. Senator Jack Reed, ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, discusses America's policy challenges with students and fellows in an event co-hosted by Future of Diplomacy Project Director Nicholas Burns and Belfer Center Director Ash Carter.

Women and War: Dara Kay Cohen, faculty representative with the International Security Program, speaks on gender and conflict during a Women in Defense, Diplomacy, and Development Female Faculty Lunch. Cohen’s research focuses on international security, civil war, and dynamics of violence, gender, and conflict.

China’s Rise: As part of his research on perceptions of China’s rise in several countries, Philippe Le Corre (center) travelled to Kazakhstan and visited the International Center for Business Cooperation, Khorgos, on the Sino-Kazakhstani border. With Philippe is Kemal Kirisci (Brookings) and Kazakh customs officials.

Common Ground: Kennedy School Professor Meghan O’Sullivan (right) talks with Belfer Center Senior Fellow Susan Rice during a break at the Center’s International Council meeting in May. Rice served as National Security Advisor to President Obama and O’Sullivan served as Dep. National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush.

COURTESY PHILIPPE LE CORRE

MARTHA STEWART

Breaking Barriers: Amb. Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Malta, discusses career opportunities with students and fellows as part of a Belfer Center student session co-hosted by the Black Student Union and Women in Defense, Diplomacy, and Development (W3D).

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

11

Middle East Dialogue Students Explore Saudi Arabia, Share Research on Security

by Oliver MacPhearson-Smith

I

n early April, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen led a delegation of 11 Harvard graduate students to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Consisting of students drawn from across the Kennedy School and the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, the delegation marked the first official visit for the Belfer Center’s Saudi and Gulf Cooperation Council Security Project to Saudi Arabia.

Hosted by Prince Turki al-Faisal, the objective of the trip was to meet with Saudis involved in the country’s Vision 2030 economic and social overhaul, as well as to share research on security in the Middle East.

Beginning in the capital, Riyadh, our delegation participated in seminars on extremism and cybersecurity at the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies. Speaking to a panel of experts at the Centre, HKS students Pete Knoetgen and Julie Ahn presented their research on security in Iraq.

Our delegation later visited two of the organizations Saudi Arabia considers cornerstones of its efforts to combat extremism—the Global Centre for Combatting Extremist Ideology (ETIDAL) and the Mohammed bin Naif Counseling and Care Centre. The ETIDAL mission is to track and counter the online proliferation of extremist ideologies; while the stated aim of the Counseling

and Care Centre is to rehabilitate and reform violent extremists before reintegrating them into Saudi society.

While in Riyadh, we were hosted by Prince Turki at his residence for a welcoming reception with a cadre of senior Saudi diplomats. At the gathering I was honored to present my research on Iranian foreign policy and changes in the global oil industry.

The objective of the trip was to meet with Saudis involved in the country’s Vision 2030... and to share research on Middle East security.

Continuing to Jeddah, a port city on the Red Sea, our group toured King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and the Islamic Development Bank. Speaking with practitioners and experts, the delegation explored the Bank’s past and future work to foster economic development. Later, meeting with students from Effat University, we discussed the changing role of women in the Kingdom and Harvard’s Ambreen Zaman presented her research on women's empowerment within Muslim countries.

In addition to discussing Saudi Arabia’s future, our delegation was fortunate to explore the Kingdom’s vast history.

Travelling to the Al Ula in the north of the country, we explored the ancient Nabatean ruins of Mada’in Saleh, the Kingdom’s first World Heritage site, and portions of Learning in Place: Harvard Kennedy School student Oliver the historic Hejaz Railway.

Macphearson-Smith presents his research on Iranian foreign policy and the global oil industry to Saudi diplomats gathered at Prince Turki al-Faisal’s residence in Riyadh.

12

Newsletter | Summer 2018

Fellowship Program for Current and Emerging Leaders from Palestine A new fellowship program at Harvard Kennedy School will provide tuition, health insurance, and stipends for Palestinian students in the Harvard Kennedy School’s degree programs, as well as financial aid for Palestinian participants in the school’s executive education programs.

The Kennedy School announced in April the Rawabi Fellowship Program for Current and Emerging Leaders from Palestine. The program, to be coordinated by the Belfer Center’s Middle East Initiative, is supported by Bashar Masri, a Palestinian business executive.

“Principled and effective public leadership is needed to tackle the range of challenges that the people in the region are facing,” said Harvard Kennedy School Dean Douglas W. Elmendorf.

“This generous gift will empower future generations of leaders to strengthen the region’s political, social, and economic development.”

The merit-based, competitive fellowships will be awarded to qualified, admitted students from Palestine, with preference for those with demonstrated financial need.

“The Rawabi Fellowship will make it possible for us to attract academically gifted Palestinian students to the Kennedy School, and to contribute to their development as leaders, policymakers, and intellectuals,” said Tarek Masoud, Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations and faculty affiliate of the Middle East Initiative.

Upon graduation from the Kennedy School, Rawabi Fellows will be encouraged to use their newly acquired knowledge, networks, and expertise to improve opportunities for the people of Palestine.

Pathways to Peace: Belfer Center Iran Project Director Payam Mohseni (2nd from right) with (from left) Sheikh Fadhel Al-Sahlani (Rep. of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in North America), Shaykh Yasir F. Fahmy (Islamic Center of Boston), and Imam Khalid Nasr (Islamic Center of New England) at the Islam Symposium in April.

Symposium Aims to Reduce Sectarianism in Muslim World

T

he Belfer Center’s Iran Project presented the First Annual Symposium on Islam and Sectarian De-escalation at Harvard Kennedy School on April 14-15. The symposium was organized by Iran Project director Payam Mohseni and co-sponsored by Harvard’s Center for Middle East Studies, the Asia Center, the South Asia Institute, and the Alwaleed Islamic Studies Program.

With more than 200 guests and dozens of speakers and participants who traveled to Cambridge from around the world, the symposium positioned the Belfer Center and Iran Project at the forefront of debates and discussion on the intersection of geopolitics and sectarianism in the Middle East and marks an important step forward in the Iran Project’s Islam and Sectarian De-Escalation Initiative. From the rise

of ISIS and militant extremism in the context of an eroding Arab state system to the spillover of sectarian tensions in hotspots such as Syria and Iraq, the geopolitics of sectarianism has never been so critical nor religious and ethnic strife so corrosive in the modern history of the region.

[T]he geopolitics of sectarianism has never been so critical nor religious and ethnic strife so corrosive in the modern history of the region.

Religion & Civic Activism Panel: Hassan Abbas, Belfer Center alum and Professor, National Defense University, with Daisy Khan (Executive Director, Women’s Islamic Initiative in Spirituality and Equality; Hasnain Walji (Executive Director, United Global Initiative); Arif Asaria, Secretary-General, North American Shia Ithna-Asheri Muslim Communities; and Rahat Husain, Advocacy Director, Universal Muslim Association of America.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The symposium was timely in addressing the serious challenges that currently hinder sectarian de-escalation and pathways for peaceful co-existence and in contextualizing and differentiating the overlapping and driving factors behind the rising turmoil in the Middle East.

By gathering a diversity of voices from leading religious authorities and civic community leaders, the symposium served as a platform for dialogue both within the Islamic tradition and between different religious groups.

Leading American policymakers and scholars of Middle East politics also took part in discussing strategies for alleviating the lack of objective and comprehensive knowledge in the policy-making world regarding the intersection between religion and politics in the Middle East.

The symposium was a first step in a broader effort of the Iran Project’s Islam and Sectarian De-Escalation Initiative to address the larger issues impacting the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy. The two-day event provided impetus for the audience and speakers to extend the conversations to their own communities and to use their new connections to generate greater dialogue.

The Project plans to build on the symposium conversations by publishing a post-conference report to share the research and policy findings with the broader community and policy-making world to help inform their decisions and suggest positive steps toward reducing sectarianism in the Islamic world.

13

Dina Powell, Future of Diplomacy Senior Fellow and former Deputy National Security Adviser to President Trump, makes a point during the Council Meeting in May.

International Council members Michael Olshan (left) and Laurence Belfer talk with Belfer Center Director Ash Carter during a reception for International Council members.

HKS Professor Jason Furman, former Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, discusses “Today’s Economy” along with Lawrence Summers (not pictured) during the Council meeting.

Lt. Gen. (ret.) Sean MacFarland (right) shares a light moment with International Council members Kay Kapoor and Scott Nathan, and Belfer Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach.

MARTHA STEWART

Lt. General Sean MacFarland, former Commander of the coalition against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, opened the 2018 annual meeting of the Belfer Center’s International Council on May 1 with a compelling presentation on the strategy to defeat and destroy ISIS. MacFarland was welcomed by Belfer Center Director Ash Carter, former Secretary of Defense who tasked MacFarland with leading the ISIS mission.

On the following day, International Council members from around the world took part in discussions led by Center experts that ranged from global foreign policy challenges and diplomacy to defending elections from cyber attacks, today’s economy, and technology with public purpose. In addition to Carter and Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach, presenters included Harvard Kennedy School Professors Jason Furman, Lawrence Summers, Samantha Power and Nicholas Burns, and Belfer Center Senior Fellows Dina Powell, Matt Rhoades, and Robby Mook.

MARTHA STEWART

International Council Discusses 2018 Global Challenges

The Belfer Center is pleased to welcome nine new members to the International Council: • Mark Dalzell

• Chuck Robbins

• David DeWalt

• Paul Tramontano

• Vernon Jordan

• Steve Loughlin

• Scott Nathan

• Alejandro Weinstein

• Steve Perles

14

Newsletter | Summer 2018

MARTHA STEWART

Ray Dalio Applies Lessons From the Past to Today’s Financial World

by Arjun Kapur

T

he great Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith once wrote that “there can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.”

Billionaire founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio has taken it upon himself to break that mold by championing the use of history in the financial world. In his bestselling book, Principles: Life and Work, published last year, Dalio writes that “with time and experience, I came to see each encounter [with a financial puzzle] as ‘another one of those’ that I could approach more calmly and analytically, like a biologist might approach an encounter with a threatening creature in the jungle: first identifying its species and then, drawing on his prior knowledge about its expected behaviors, reacting appropriately.” Realizing that life is filled with both the familiar and the unfamiliar, Dalio adds that “when I ran into ones I hadn’t seen before, I would be painfully surprised.

Studying all those painful first-time encounters, I learned that even if they hadn’t happened to me, most of them had happened to other people in other times and places, which gave me a healthy respect for history...”

In February, Dalio visited the Belfer Center to explore his use of history with scholars in the Center’s Applied History Project’s Faculty Working Group. Most meetings of the Applied

History Working Group focus on how policymakers in government can illuminate current policy challenges and choices by analyzing historical precedents and analogues. The Dalio brainstorm session expanded the Harvard team’s outlook by exploring the ways in which financial analysts in the private sector can apply insights from market history to add value to investment strategy.

Dalio visited the Belfer Center to explore his use of history with the Center’s Applied History Working Group.

Dalio has written a series of Applied History-style reports including “Populism: The Phenomenon,” (which identifies similarities and differences between 14 historical populist leaders in 10 different countries to formulate an “archetypical populist template”) and “Economic Principles” (which includes data and analysis on deleveraging cycles in 1920s and 1930s America and Europe, as well as charts on rise and decline of world economies over the past 500 years.)

Unlike most financial analysts, however, Dalio does not simply crunch numbers. He also employs unique qualitative methods to learn from the past. For example, rather than reading standard works of history, Dalio reads

Financial Facts: Ray Dalio responds to questions from students, faculty and members of the public during a JFK Jr. Forum discussion with Harvard Professor Lawrence Summers in February.

newspapers from past periods of economic distress to shed light on the uncertain market conditions of today. By applying lessons from financial history, particularly from debt-ridden eras, Dalio was one of the only analysts who anticipated the 2007-2008 financial crisis—allowing Bridgewater to deliver positive returns while other firms hemorrhaged money during the depths of the crisis.

As the Applied History Project’s Co-Director Graham Allison puts it, “Ray is a phenomenon.

His gospel of ‘radical transparency,’ as well as his skill in finding patterns in the past persuaded me to re-read his book. And I’m still thinking.”

Dalio’s productive exchange of ideas with scholars in the Applied History Working Group was a testament to the fact that history’s value stretches not only from the offices of Ivory Tower to Foggy Bottom, but also to the C-suites of Wall Street.

About the Applied History Project Applied history is the explicit attempt to illuminate current challenges and choices by analyzing historical precedents and analogues. The Center’s

MARTHA STEWART

Applied History Project seeks to institutionalize historical analysis in the tradition of two great Harvard Kennedy School professors—the late Ernest May and Richard Neustadt—to create in universities beginning with Harvard a new and rigorous sub-discipline of Applied History. Applied historians take current predicaments and identify precedents and analogues that offer clues about what is likely to happen, suggest possible policy interventions, and assess probable consequences.

Learning from History: Graham Allison (left), co-director of the Center’s Applied History Project, talks with Ray Dalio (right) and HKS Dean Doug Elmendorf before Dalio’s participation in a JFK, Jr. Forum. Dalio spoke earlier in the day with Allison’s Applied History Working Group.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

For more about the Applied History Project, visit belfercenter.org/AppliedHistory

15

Featured Fellows

Project on Managing the Atom / International Security Program

Cyber Security Project

Reid Pauly

Nadiya Kostyuk

by Jonathan Edel-Hänni

by Celia Carbone

M

N

If I Stop Will You Shoot?

Diagramming Coercive Assurance anaging the Atom/International Security Program Research Fellow Reid Pauly is “on loan” to the Belfer Center from MIT, where he is developing a thesis on coercive bargaining over nuclear weapons programs for his PhD. In response to concerns that the trans-Cambridge trip from MIT to Harvard is borderline treasonous, Pauly simply asks, “Why wouldn’t you stop by Belfer if you’re studying nuclear issues?”

At the Belfer Center, Pauly is doing a deep dive on credible coercive assurance with nuclear states. To do so, he is analyzing the nuclear histories of Iran, Libya, North Korea, and South Africa.

“You can’t say ‘Stop or I’ll shoot’ without implying that if you comply, I won’t shoot,” Pauly explains, referencing Tom Schelling’s Arms and Influence. This analogy illustrates the concept of coercive assurance—the idea that agreeing to demands will guarantee one’s safety.

“I picked nuclear weapons programs because they should be the hardest cases for credible assurance...if it works here, the concept should travel,” he explains. “As we would say in political science, it allows for greater external validity.”

Coercive bargaining presents “I picked nuclear particular challenges when the backweapons programs and-forth is over nuclear arms. Most of the countries Pauly is analyzing because they should sought nuclear weapons to deter be the hardest cases foreign threats, making assurances for credible assurance.” especially difficult to develop.

Pauly’s research at Belfer covers more than coercive assurance. At the International Security Program, he is analyzing political-military wargames to gauge the willingness of political elites to use nuclear arms.

Pauly’s approach is groundbreaking: it is one of the first studies of the culture of nuclear non-use through the examination of wargames.

For an upcoming paper on the subject, Pauly writes that while surveys and survey experiments generally get to the question of “What would I support you doing,” wargames put the decision-makers in a position of answering the more apt question, “What would I do?”

16

Investigating the Use of Cyber Attacks as Force Multipliers adiya Kostyuk, a Research Fellow with the Cyber Security Project, says that understanding the cyber security field requires collaboration between policy and academia in the interconnected world of international politics.

Kostyuk is a pre-doctoral fellow earning her PhD from the University of Michigan in Political Science and Public Policy. Her dissertation looks at the conditions under which countries decide to speak publicly about their military cyber capabilities.

Her 2017 article, “The Invisible Digital Front,” inves- “[The Project] has provided tigated how cyber attacks can me with an opportunity to be used as force multipliers learn from people working for conventional operations.

She and her coauthor Yuri with the real-world Zhukov explore whether questions and challenges cyber attacks can impact bat- on a daily basis.” tlefield events. Looking at the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, they found that cyber attacks are not yet effective tools of coercion in war.

Since cybersecurity is still a developing field, it requires an interdisciplinary approach to understanding, she said. Kostyuk’s Cyber Security Project fellowship is unique because it brings together pre-doctoral and post-doctoral fellows with current government officials.

“It’s an amazing blend of people from academic and policy backgrounds,” Kostyuk says. “It has provided me with an opportunity to learn from people working with the real-world questions and challenges on a daily basis.”

The collaborative approach to her fellowship and interacting with this network of people in cyber security research aided her in developing the theoretical component for her dissertation, she says.

While working on her dissertation, Kostyuk is also working on other international relations questions including assessment of cyber risks and how they influence the public’s perception of cybersecurity policies.

Newsletter | Summer 2018

Salam Fayyad: Looking at the Future of Palestine

International Security Program

Ariane Tabatabai

Understanding Iran’s National Security Decisions

by Jacob Carozza

A

s a young child in Iran, Ariane Tabatabai grew up in an environment where everything was politicized. At school, she says, she was taught the official viewpoint of the Islamic Republic’s government.

“I would come home and get a very different perspective from my parents,” says Tabatabai, whose mother is a political sociologist and whose father is a political theorist. The regime eventually removed her parents from their university posts, as it did with many academics, and she spent much of her upbringing away from Iran.

Tabatabai went on to earn a PhD at King’s College London, becoming an expert in international security, nuclear issues, and the Middle East.

She frequently writes about the Iran nuclear deal, and was consulted as an expert on the topic for an episode of HBO’s news-satire show “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver.”

While the agreement has some flaws, she says, there exists no “perfect deal”—the ideal agreement for one side would be unacceptable for the other. President Trump’s withdrawal from the deal undermines U.S. credibility in nuclear negotiations with North Korea and other nations, she says.

As a postdoctoral Research Fellow in the International Security Program, “Out of all the Tabatabai has been working on a manu- theaters Iran is script for a book about how the Iranian involved in, the one regime makes national security decisions. Iran’s involvement in Syria’s civil that worries me the war is motivated by a combination of most is Syria.” factors, she says, including economic opportunity, access to Lebanon, and Syria’s role as an ally during Iran’s war with Iraq in the 1980s. But Iran’s actions carry risks, Tabatabai says.

“Out of all the theaters Iran is involved in, the one that worries me the most is Syria,” she adds.

Tabatabai remains concerned that the conflict could balloon into a larger proxy war between Iran and Israel: “I don’t think it’s something that either party wants.”

Former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad discusses his career and thoughts on Middle East issues at a Belfer Center seminar in April.

by Jacob Carozza

M

iddle East Initiative Senior Fellow Salam Fayyad, a former Palestinian Authority Prime Minister, never expected that he would be a politician.

As an official at the World Bank in Washington, D.C. during the 1980s and 1990s, the economist would often interact with policymakers whom he believed let politics get in the way of good ideas.

“In all honesty, I never really thought I would be on the other side of that table,” Fayyad said at a Middle East Initiative seminar in April.

But history had other ideas.

After a stint as the International Monetary Fund’s envoy to Palestine in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Fayyad was asked by Yasser Arafat in 2002 to serve as the Palestinian Authority’s Finance Minister.

He agreed to take the job—on the condition that he stay for only two years.

Arafat “actually couldn’t believe that I said yes,” Fayyad said.

“He wasn’t expecting it.”

Fayyad’s political career didn’t end there. He remained the Finance Minister until 2005, and served as prime minister from 2007 until 2013.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

At the seminar, Fayyad gave his take on the protests that erupted in March on the border between Gaza and Israel, in which Palestinians are demanding the right to return to ancestral lands. The most important thing Palestinian leaders can do to honor and validate the youth-fueled movement, he said, would be to “actually move decisively toward reuniting the country.” Gaza has been under the control of Hamas since 2007, while the Palestinian Authority rules the West Bank.

“In all honesty, I never really thought I would be on the other side of that table.”

According to Fayyad, twothirds of Palestinians were born after 2000, or are too young to remember a time before that. This new generation is demanding action from Palestinian leaders, regardless of party, he said.

“People have every right to get a sense that we are on the right path, and that is the job of the leadership.

That’s the most important thing they should be doing—and they’re not doing that right now—in my judgment,” Fayyad said.

17

Hot off the Presses

Kissinger the Negotiator: Lessons from Dealmaking at the Highest Level

by Harvard Professors James K. Sebenius (HBS), R. Nicholas Burns (HKS) and Robert H. Mnookin (HLS) Harper Collins (May 2018)

Politicians, world leaders, and business executives around the world—including every President from John F. Kennedy to Donald J. Trump—have sought the counsel of Henry Kissinger, a brilliant diplomat and historian whose unprecedented achievements as a negotiator have been universally acknowledged.

Now, for the first time, Kissinger the Negotiator provides a clear analysis of Kissinger’s overall approach to making deals and resolving conflicts—expertise that holds powerful and enduring lessons.

“Henry Kissinger’s acute understanding of all aspects of international negotiations, from his close attention to detail to his uncanny ability to craft effective negotiating strategies, has made him one of the most highly regarded diplomats in American history.”

—James A. Baker III Sixty-first U.S. Secretary of State

International Politics: How History Modifies Theory

by John M. Owen IV and Richard Rosecrance, Associate, International Security Program Oxford University Press (January 2018)

Presenting the development of international relations and its theories in a historical narrative spanning 500 years, International Politics: How History Modifies Theory offers a fresh perspective on twenty-first-century world politics. Rather than simply listing IR theories, this text demonstrates that certain theories explain the behavior of world politics better than others based on historical context. Offering a broad and deep historical perspective, it demonstrates how history can explain and impact theory development in the field of international relations.

“This is an interesting project by two very well-known and accomplished scholars. We are bereft of works that show the interplay of deep history with theory, and this book fills that void nicely.”

—Steve Yetiv Old Dominion University

Stopping the Bomb: The Sources and Effectiveness of US Nonproliferation Policy

Click Here to Kill Everybody: Security and Survival in a Hyperconnected World

by Nicholas L. Miller, former Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow, ISP/Project on Managing the Atom

by Bruce Schneier, Research Fellow, Cyber Security Project; Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy

Cornell Studies in Security Affairs Cornell University Press (April 2018)

Stopping the Bomb examines the historical development and effectiveness of American efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Nicholas L. Miller offers here a novel theory that argues changes in American nonproliferation policy are the keys to understanding the nuclear landscape from the 1960s onward.

“This book offers elegant theory and compelling evidence on the sources and efficacy of US nonproliferation efforts. Countering the claim that ‘sanctions don’t work,’ Miller outlines the conditions under which they can be consequential.

A must-have resource for experts and a growing audience attentive to these issues.”

—Etel Solingen Thomas T. and Elizabeth C. Tierney Chair in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of California Irvine

W.W. Norton & Co (September 2018)

From driverless cars to smart thermostats, from autonomous stock-trading systems to drones equipped with their own behavioral algorithms, the Internet now has direct effects on the physical world. While this computerized future, often called the Internet of Things, carries enormous potential, author Bruce Schneier argues that catastrophe awaits in its new vulnerabilities and dangers.

Forget data theft: cutting-edge digital attackers can now literally crash your car, pacemaker, and home security system, as well as everyone else’s. In Click Here to Kill Everybody, Schneier explores the risks and security implications of our new, hyper-connected era, and lays out common-sense policies that will allow us to enjoy the benefits of this age without falling prey to the consequences of its insecurity.

For more Belfer Center books, visit

belfercenter.org/books Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP

18

Newsletter | Summer 2018

NOVA: Holdren, Schrag Explain Climate Change

Solar Geoengineering: Taking a Hard Look

In 1824, Joseph Fourier, who was once science advisor to Napoleon Bonaparte, deduced that the composition of the atmosphere governs the earth’s surface temperature. Climate science has been progressing ever since, according to John P. Holdren, Science Advisor to former President Barack Obama and Co-Director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program.

In a new PBS NOVA documentary, Decoding the Weather “The largest Machine, Holdren notes that uncertainty about climate science—accumulating climate change is since Fourier’s time—proves that humans are responsible for the big what we decide to do.”

—John P. Holdren increases in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.

“We are seeing one-in-a-thousand-year floods with astonishing frequency,” Holdren says in the two-hour special in which he and STPP Co-Director Dan Schrag share their expertise on science and climate issues. We will also likely continue to see more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, he adds, and devastating heatwaves will be much more extreme.

We know that “carbon dioxide is a major driver of climate,” Schrag says, and study of the oceans has contributed to that knowledge. The floor of the ocean is essentially a tape recorder, Schrag explains. “We can take those fossil shells, measure their chemistry and reconstruct what the temperature of that ancient seawater was so long ago.”

To reduce suffering, we need to maximize mitigation and adaptation now, Holdren says. “The largest uncertainty about climate change is what we decide to do.”

“Fear of solar geoengineering is entirely healthy,” Harvard Professor of Public Policy David Keith wrote in a Guardian op-ed in 2017.

“Its mere prospect might be hyped by fossil fuel interests to thwart emissions cuts. It could be used by one or a few nations in a way that’s harmful to many. There might be some yet undiscovered risk making the technology much less effective in reality than the largely positive story told by computer models.”

Yet,” he added, “that healthy fear can distort discussion in unhealthy ways.”

What’s needed, Keith said, is “an international, transparent, and sustainable solar geoengineering research programme that includes field experiments with appropriate governance.”

That program has been launched. Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program (SGRP), established under the umbrella of the Harvard University Center for the Environment, is headed by Keith as Faculty Director and Gernot Wagner as Executive Director The SGRP goals, research projects, risk and effectiveness assessments, governance options, and social implications are all described in the program’s new website.

Robert Stavins, who heads the Belfer Center-based Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, is directing a project for SGRP that hopes to develop consensus on options for solar geoengineering governance.

Vol. 42 No. 4 Spring 18

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs.

The International Security journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may be directed to IS@harvard.edu.

Follow us on Twitter @journal_is

BRANDEN CAMP/AP

Climate Updates

For more on SGRP, see geoengineering.environment.harvard.edu

Why America’s Grand Strategy Has Not Changed: Power, Habit, and the U.S. Foreign Policy Establishment

Do U.S. Drone Strikes Cause Blowback? Evidence from Pakistan and Beyond

Patrick Porter

Aqil Shah

The United States continues to pursue a grand strategy of primacy, despite periodic criticisms and major changes in the international system. Why? The U.S. foreign policy establishment perpetuates primacy as the only legitimate grand strategy, foreclosing alternate perspectives.

Do U.S. drone strikes fuel militant Islamist group recruitment? A recent survey of residents of Pakistan’s North Waziristan Agency, heavily targeted by drone strikes, along with interviews and secondary sources, suggests that drone strikes have little effect on militant recruitment.

U.S.-China Rivalry in Southeast Asia: Power Shift or Peaceful Coexistence?

Active Denial: Redesigning Japan’s Response to China’s Military Challenge

David Shambaugh

Eric Heginbotham and Richard J. Samuels

Although China is extending its influence in Southeast Asia, it has not yet eclipsed the United States. China’s economic reach is growing, but the United States still holds the upper hand in military strength, foreign aid, and soft power.

Japan employs a forward defense strategy against China’s military threat, aiming to quickly and decisively defeat an attack.

This strategy is unlikely to succeed. Japan should instead adopt an active denial strategy—maintaining a military force after an attack until the United States comes to its aid.

Markets or Mercantilism? How China Secures Its Energy Supplies Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press

Compiled by International Security staff

China takes a variety of measures to protect its access to energy supplies, particularly oil. These actions are a rational strategy to shield China from energy disruptions—most importantly, U.S. attempts to coerce China by constricting its oil supply.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

19

Nonprofit Org. U.S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH Permit No. 375

The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Ash Carter, Director Eric Rosenbach, Co-Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, Massachusetts www.belfercenter.org

Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2018 EDITOR: Sharon Wilke Associate Director of Communications sharon_wilke@hks.harvard.edu DESIGNER: Andrew Facini

Publications and Design Coordinator andrew_facini@hks.harvard.edu Josh Burek Director of Global Communications and Strategy josh_burek@hks.harvard.edu Arielle Dworkin Digital Communications Manager Arielle_Dworkin@hks.harvard.edu Bennett Craig Photographer / Multimedia Producer bennett_craig@hks.harvard.edu The Communications Office was assisted in the production of this newsletter by Monica Achen, Bogdan Belei, Olivia Campbell, Celia Carbone, Jacob Carozza, Caitlin Chase, Mari Dugas, Jonathan Edel, Arjun Kapur, Joy Li, Susan Lynch, and Gernot Wagner.

The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect, and (2) to prepare future generations of leaders for

All photos by Belfer Center unless otherwise noted.

these arenas. Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at belfercenter.org/subscribe

Newsmakers Sarah Zukerman Daly, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame and a former Belfer Center Research Fellow with the International Security Program, has been named a 2018 Carnegie Fellow.

Carnegie's announcement noted that Daly is one of an “exceptional group of established and emerging scholars, journalists, public intellectuals, and authors whose work distills knowledge, enriches our culture, and equips leaders in the realms of public policy humanities, international relations, law, Meghan O’Sullivan, Jeane

Laura Holgate, a Senior Fellow

and the arts.” Daly is the author of Organized Violence after Civil War: The

Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice

with the Belfer Center and former

Geography of Recruitment in Latin America.

of International Affairs at Harvard

U.S. Representative to the Vienna

Kennedy School, has been named

Office of the United Nations and the

chair of the North American compo-

International Atomic Energy Agency,

2018 Security Studies Awards

nent of the Trilateral Commission.

has joined the Nuclear Threat

Four current or former Belfer Center affiliates have been named 2018

O’Sullivan, who heads the Center’s

Initiative (NTI) as Vice President for

award winners with the International Security Studies Section (ISSS) of the

Geopolitics of Energy project, is a

Material Security and Minimization.

International Studies Association. The ISSS is dedicated to enhancing knowl-

former Deputy National Security

“Laura’s deep knowledge and

edge and understanding about a wide range of international security issues.

Advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan to

impressive experience in reducing

President George W. Bush. At the

global dangers make her a leading

ISSS Distinguished Scholar Award:

Co-winner of the ISSS Best Book

Commission, she replaces Joseph

global expert on nuclear threats

Charles Glaser, a former Research

Award: Dara Kay Cohen, Associate

Nye, who stepped down after 10

and preventing terrorism,” said

Fellow with ISP

Professor of Public Policy

years of service. Nye co-chaired

NTI Co-Chair and former Senator

the Commission’s 2018 meeting in

Sam Nunn, a member of the Belfer

ISSS Emerging Scholar Award:

ISSS Outstanding Service Award:

Singapore, which featured intensive

Center’s International Council.

Kelly Greenhill, a current ISP

Erik Dahl, a former Research Fellow

Research Fellow

with ISP

discussions on U.S. relations with countries around the world.

20

Newsletter | Summer 2018

Printed on 100% Recycled Paper