EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
other developers plan for the future. Current traffic levels and development-related activity should be considered the norm, but the state needs to remain diligent and focused on maintaining existing infrastructure. While conducting the study, Hushka mentioned that there were constant changes happening throughout the study, which Wamboldt credits to the “dynamic oil and gas industry.”
ber of temporary or nonpermanent residents. “The two estimates combine to produce a service population, which includes individuals that work in North Dakota and live elsewhere,” the study says. Employment in the oil and gas industry in the Williston Basin is likely to continue to grow at a pace slower than observed from 2009 to 2014 due to a combination of growth in the industry and secondary job creation.
Study Scenarios
Population Growth
The scope of the study was divided into three scenarios to address the uncertainty associated with the rate and extent of future oil field development. The low scenario is the basic premise that economic conditions or overall conditions remain relatively similar to conditions in 2013. The medium scenario centers on the premise that economic conditions remain relatively similar to conditions in 2013, and the high scenario considers an improved economic climate relative to conditions in 2013. The following employment, population and housing potential estimates, not projections, are based on medium scenarios.
Employment Potential
The employment potential consists of three main components: direct employment in the oil and gas industry, secondary job creation and employment in other industries and sectors. Research conducted by NDSU shows that the Williston region could see a 2019 employment forecast of 65,000 and 70,000; the Minot region could see an employment potential of between 55,000 and 60,000; and that the Dickinson region could see a potential growth in employment to of 40,000 and 45,000. Employment growth is what is driving population estimates, the study says. Population forecasts showed that population will continue to be comprised of a growing number of permanent residents and a steady num-
44
Based on projections in the KLJ study over the 2014-2019 period, the Williston region could have a total population potential around 97,000 at the end of 2014, which includes permanent residents, shift workers, seasonal construction workers, and depen-
dents and spouses of workers living in nonpermanent lodging arrangements. The total population potential in 2019 has potential to reach 130,000 for the Williston region, “assuming housing is supplied and occupancy rates remain valid.” The Minot region could have a total population potential of around 123,500 at the end of 2014 and a total population potential of 137,000 in 2019. The study also found the Dickinson region to have an estimated population potential around 60,000 at the end of 2014 and a population potential in 2019 of around 77,000. “Permanent population will be largely driven by the supply of permanent housing in the region,” the study says. “Due to a lack of housing, the region will continue to have a
Housing Needs, Total Units, by Scenario, Dickinson Region, North Dakota, 2014-2019 Year
Low Scenario
Medium Scenario
High Scenario
2014
31,908
32,439
33,311
2015
34,358
35,111
36,117
2016
36,560
37,408
38,467
2017
38,549
39,410
40,672
2018
40,406
41,140
42,921
2019
41,573
42,606
45,016
Housing Needs, Total Units, by Scenario, Minot Region, North Dakota, 2014-2019 Year
Low Scenario
Medium Scenario
High Scenario
2014
54,903
55,312
55,873
2015
56,170
56,796
57,458
2016
57,401
58,175
58,808
2017
58,361
59,334
59,934
2018
59,564
60,656
61,312
2019
60,476
61,741
62,372
Housing Needs, in Total Units, by Scenario, Williston Region, North Dakota, 2014-2019 Year
Low Scenario
Medium Scenario
High Scenario
2014
41,063
42,353
45,100
2015
44,397
46,622
50,737
2016
47,770
50,660
55,754
2017
50,173
53,778
59,190
2018
52,069
55,916
61,307
2019
54,071
58,037
63,420
The BAKKEN MAGAZINE OCTOBER 2014