Application to mail at Periodicals Postage Rates is Pending in Pensacola, FL
This Community Newspaper is a weekly publication of Escambia Santa/Rosa Bar Association Page 1 Vol. 15, No. 38 VISIT THE SUMMATION WEEKLY ONLINE: www.esrba.com September 22, 2015
4 Pages
Whatever the Weather May Be By Josh Newby
Meteorologists: the only people who can be wrong all the time and still get paid. While that old joke may not be entirely true (between 60 and 70 percent of weather predictions are fairly spot-on), it reflects a sentiment that a large portion of the population shares; namely, that you can’t trust the weatherman. But what if there were a way to boost accuracy to north of 90 percent—even 95 percent—with specificity down to the square-mile or squareblock? One organization in Ft. Walton Beach, Fla., is planning to do just that. In late August, the team unveiled for the first time its revolutionary new technology—developed by the military and purchased for exclusive civilian use— that detects every critical characteristic of an impending hailstorm, flood, tornado and hurricane. Using a combination of raw data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the National Weather Service and more, with a thousands strong network of individual data points, meteorologists at the National Storm Center (NSC) can often predict weather for precise addresses and parcels, and alert homeowners about the incoming storm crisis. “What we developed is a 24/7/365 next generation forensic weather-reporting monitoring system featuring geotargeted coordinates with more than 95 percent accuracy,”said Trevor Leeds, NSC’s CEO. “We can monitor any home or property in the world, right down to its exact address.” Instead of using algorithms that often lump data together and miss smaller, more individual storms, the NSC collects critical storm information and weathermapping reports (over three million a day) so its staff can scan all storm data in real time. This means that a highly trained human eye can detect a minor tornado that may be missed by a National Weather Service algorithm, and that individual can then issue a precise warning. No more countywide thunderstorm warnings. No more mass alerts. Instead, this targeted, highly accurate system can say with confidence who will be affected. More accurate alerts mean that more people will pay attention. With our current weather-prediction system, people will generally ignore warnings because they have not grown accustomed to having faith in reports. But now, individuals will be able to understand exactly when and where severe weather will strike, leading to better precautions and possibly saved lives. Dave Carlson is the founder of the NSC and has spent the past 18 months procuring the software, recruiting top PhD meteorologists and building partnerships with future customers like insurance companies, alarm and home-monitoring organizations and contractors. “This technology has so many uses and we’re excited to roll it out and really change how weather prediction happens,” said Carlson. “We want to make sure your family members will not be in danger.” The military program that Carlson purchased is a browser-based computer system, meaning meteorologists can even access it from the road or when a storm takes out one of their three central hubs in Ft. Walton, Fla., Texas or Colorado. “Anyone can perform functions in the program,” said Josh Cahall, a lead facilitator with the NSC. “You can select different attributes that you want to look for and set different thresholds for warnings. Some consumers may want a warning for a minor hailstorm, others may only want to be alerted of a tornado or hurricane. You can export that information to Google Earth for specific locations and make predictions in real time.” This emphasis on accuracy above all else comes from the group’s military background, where troop formations and infantry movement is often dependent on only the most precise weather information. “When you’re doing this for the military, you can’t be wrong,” said Jay Southerland, CEO of international operations. One of Carlson’s first hires was Roco Calaci, a meteorologist who has worked with NASA and the White House and helped develop the technology for the NSC based on the military’s skeletal computer system framework. “We bring in raw data such as satellite information, weather information, and weather stations reports, and using military trained weather forecasters, we look at the data and make smart predictions,” said Calaci. But why are public organizations not better at predicting the weather? The National Weather Service, for example, is not able to provide this level of accuracy because their charter does not allow for site-specific alerts. They also deal with budget constraints and simply do not have the manpower to track all severe weather events. In addition, many hailstorms, high winds and tornados fly under the radar, so to speak, and are too small to be picked up by their algorithms. “And a lot of weather organizations won’t issue a warning until they have some sort of visual confirmation,” said Carlson. “By then it’s too late. We save lives by more accurately predicting severe weather, instead of telling you a tornado has touched down after the fact.” The NSC technology, however, has no such constraints, and Southerland sees endless possibilities for the technology. “Right now, we’re going to be a mainly business-to-business company, but in the next six months we’re going to begin marketing to individual consumers and even release a mobile phone application,” said Southerland. “We’re also starting a pilot program in Australia soon to take this worldwide.” The NSC recently announced a partnership with SkyBell, a company of WiFi video doorbells that will come equipped with temperature, pressure and humidity monitors. This of course means increasing the number of national data points from a few thousand to a few million. “This partnership will provide more accurate weather to all,” said Desiree Mejia, CEO 5522 | |B Buusisninesess sC Clilmimaatet e| |n nwwflflbbuusisninesesscslcilmimaatet.ec.ocomm of SkyBell. They also launched a public-adjustor partnership, which will be a liaison between the homeowner, contractor and insurance carrier, a first-of-its-kind program. The public adjustor will go toe to toe with insurance carriers to maximize a claim for the homeowner. (continued on page 3)
Page 2: September 22, 2015
The Summation Weekly
Executive Director Mike Doubek mike@esrba.com Member Services Specialist Michele Kelley michele@esrba.com
Escambia/Santa Rosa Bar Office 216 S. Tarragona Street, Suite B Pensacola, FL 32502 Publisher Escambia/Santa Rosa Bar Association Published Weekly At: 216 S. Tarragona Street, Suite B. Pensacola, Florida 32502 Phone: 850-434-8135 Fax: 850-436-8822 Email: esrba@esrba.com Website: www.esrba.com Office Hours Monday - Thursday 8:00 A.M. - 4:00 P.M. Friday 8:00 A.M. - 2:00 P.M. Application to mail at periodicals Postage Rate is Pending at Pensacola, FL Subscription Rates $20/ year ( All ESRBA Members) $22.50/ year (Escambia/Santa Rosa/ Okaloosa County Non-Members) $27.50/ Year ( Other counties within Florida & All other States NonMembers) Postmaster Send Address Changes To: The Summation Weekly 216 S. Tarragona Street, Suite B Pensacola, Florida 32502
The Summation weekly is locally owned and operated. All rights Reserved. Reproduction or use of the contents herin is prohbited without written permission from the publisher. Comments and opnions expressed in this magazine represent the personal views of the individuals to whom they are attributed and/or the person identified as the author of the article, and they are not necessarily those of the ESRBA or the publisher. This newspaper accepts no responsibilty for these opinions. The ESRBA reserves the right to edit all manuscripts. All advertising information is the responsiblity of the indiviudal advertiser. Appearence in this newspaper does not necessarily reflect endorsement of any products or services by Escambia/ Santa Rosa Bar Association.
The Summation Weekly
Page 3: September 22, 2015
The Summation Weekly
Whatever the Weather May Be (Continued) “The NSC brings a level of education, information and resources to a property owner after a storm, and it connects them to licensed and certified contractors so they’re not being taken advantage of by storm chasers or an insurance carrier who attempts to reduce the amount of their claim or deny it altogether,” said Leeds. Also part of the NSC’s plan for reinventing the meteorological game is coordinating with response teams to more quickly mobilize help and alert building material suppliers of what will be in demand when. So how much is this all going to cost? The NSC is a for-profit company, after all. They have a lot of costs to cover, including the recruitment of more than 70 meteorologists over the next six months, the construction of three prediction hubs throughout the nation, and the military program they had to purchase for presumably several million dollars. As the NSC is primarily business-to-business at the moment, Leeds said that the cost to some consumers might be nothing at all. “Some insurance companies will buy from us and include that in their policy plans,” said Leeds. “Same with home security and home automation subscriptions.” For customers who do decide to shell out money for a traditional subscription, Carlson promised the fee would be nominal. “We haven’t worked out a specific pricing structure yet, but we’re thinking $2 or $3 a month,” said Carlson. “We don’t want this to be a thing just for the elite. We want everyone to be in the know and be able to protect his or her families. We’re also planning to give the service to school districts for free.” As one might expect, there are lots of differences in outcome between some of the NSC’s predictive models and the more traditional weather outlets. One weather system that was sampled showed heavy hail according to more traditional outlets, but absolutely zero hail in the NSC’s models. The NSC claims their models are far more accurate, but what happens with the five percent of time they are wrong? What if, for example, an insurance company has contracted with the NSC to give the service to their customers? Seeing the NSC report that there is no expected hail, the customers decide not to move their car under an overhang. However, the NSC model ends up being wrong and the car is severely damaged. Who is liable? The NSC’s lawyer, Brad Hakala, said they have worked out liability arrangements with their customers and that they are fairly certain through beta testing that the organization will not be on the hook to pay. “We simply provide information; we don’t tell people what to do,” said Hakala. “We clearly outline our liability in our terms and are certain it shouldn’t be a problem. That’s one of the reasons the accuracy of this model is so exciting.” Carlson hopes to change the meteorological industry by recruiting the best and offering pinpoint accuracy for large and small systems alike. He promises more rollouts in the next few months that will further change predictive weather. “It is highly probable that we will save lives and be able to mitigate storm-related damage,” said Carlson. “By being highly accurate, we can stop the wolf-crying tendency of modern weather news organizations and deliver information that you can bet on.”
NOMINATIONS OPEN FOR PRO BONO SERVICE AWARDS Each year, the Supreme Court of Florida and The Florida Bar give special recognition to lawyers, groups and members of the judiciary who have freely given their time and expertise in making legal services available to the poor. The 2016 pro bono service awards ceremony will be held at the Florida Supreme Court at 3:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 28. Nominations are welcome and must be received by Nov. 11, 2015. (Nominations for the Young Lawyers Division honor are due Oct. 19.) Nomination forms are available at www.floridabar.org for the following award categories: The Tobias Simon Pro Bono Service Award Presented annually by the chief justice to a lawyer to recognize extraordinary contributions in ensuring the availability of legal services to the poor. Named for the late Miami civil rights lawyer Tobias Simon, the award represents the Supreme Court's highest recognition of a private lawyer for pro bono service. All current recipients of The Florida Bar President's Pro Bono Awards are considered for this prestigious award, as are direct nominees who have demonstrated exemplary pro bono service over the course of their careers. The Florida Bar President's Pro Bono Service Award This award is given to an outstanding attorney for each of the state's 20 judicial circuits and to an outstanding attorney among the out-of-state Florida Bar members. The Law Firm Commendation This statewide award, presented by the chief justice, recognizes a law firm that has demonstrated a significant contribution in the provision of pro bono legal services to individuals or groups that cannot otherwise afford the services. This award recognizes extraordinary commitment on the part of a law firm to provide access to the courts for all Floridians. The Voluntary Bar Association Pro Bono Service Award Presented by the chief justice, this award recognizes a voluntary bar association that has demonstrated a significant contribution in the delivery of legal services on a pro bono basis to individuals or groups that cannot otherwise afford the services. This award recognizes an extraordinary commitment to provide access to the courts for all Floridians. The Florida Bar Young Lawyers Division Pro Bono Service Award With nearly 26,000 members, the Young Lawyers Division includes all lawyers in good standing under age 36 and all new Florida Bar members of any age for their first five years in practice. The award is given to the division member who best exemplifies the highest ideals of public service. The Distinguished Judicial Service Award Presented by the chief justice, this award is given for outstanding and sustained service to the public, especially as it relates to support of pro bono legal services. Distinguished Federal Judicial Service Award The purpose of this new award, to be presented by the chief justice, is to recognize an active or retired federal judge for outstanding and sustained service to the public, whether through legal or civic service or a combination of them, especially as it relates to the support of pro bono legal services. Nominees' pro bono service contributions may be cumulative. Consideration is not limited to the events of the immediate past year. For additional information, contact public information coordinator Mark Hohmeister at The Florida Bar, 850-561-5764 or mhohmeister@flabar.org.
Page 4: September 22, 2015
Interested in advertising in the Summation Weekly? Rates as little has $26.88 for 2 weeks of advertisement space. Email Michele@ESRBA.com or call 850/434-8135for additional information.
The Summation Weekly