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This Community Newspaper is a weekly publication of Escambia Santa/Rosa Bar Association Page 1 Vol. 15, No. 38 VISIT THE SUMMATION WEEKLY ONLINE: www.esrba.com September 22, 2015
4 Pages
Whatever the Weather May Be By Josh Newby
Meteorologists: the only people who can be wrong all the time and still get paid. While that old joke may not be entirely true (between 60 and 70 percent of weather predictions are fairly spot-on), it reflects a sentiment that a large portion of the population shares; namely, that you can’t trust the weatherman. But what if there were a way to boost accuracy to north of 90 percent—even 95 percent—with specificity down to the square-mile or squareblock? One organization in Ft. Walton Beach, Fla., is planning to do just that. In late August, the team unveiled for the first time its revolutionary new technology—developed by the military and purchased for exclusive civilian use— that detects every critical characteristic of an impending hailstorm, flood, tornado and hurricane. Using a combination of raw data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the National Weather Service and more, with a thousands strong network of individual data points, meteorologists at the National Storm Center (NSC) can often predict weather for precise addresses and parcels, and alert homeowners about the incoming storm crisis. “What we developed is a 24/7/365 next generation forensic weather-reporting monitoring system featuring geotargeted coordinates with more than 95 percent accuracy,”said Trevor Leeds, NSC’s CEO. “We can monitor any home or property in the world, right down to its exact address.” Instead of using algorithms that often lump data together and miss smaller, more individual storms, the NSC collects critical storm information and weathermapping reports (over three million a day) so its staff can scan all storm data in real time. This means that a highly trained human eye can detect a minor tornado that may be missed by a National Weather Service algorithm, and that individual can then issue a precise warning. No more countywide thunderstorm warnings. No more mass alerts. Instead, this targeted, highly accurate system can say with confidence who will be affected. More accurate alerts mean that more people will pay attention. With our current weather-prediction system, people will generally ignore warnings because they have not grown accustomed to having faith in reports. But now, individuals will be able to understand exactly when and where severe weather will strike, leading to better precautions and possibly saved lives. Dave Carlson is the founder of the NSC and has spent the past 18 months procuring the software, recruiting top PhD meteorologists and building partnerships with future customers like insurance companies, alarm and home-monitoring organizations and contractors. “This technology has so many uses and we’re excited to roll it out and really change how weather prediction happens,” said Carlson. “We want to make sure your family members will not be in danger.” The military program that Carlson purchased is a browser-based computer system, meaning meteorologists can even access it from the road or when a storm takes out one of their three central hubs in Ft. Walton, Fla., Texas or Colorado. “Anyone can perform functions in the program,” said Josh Cahall, a lead facilitator with the NSC. “You can select different attributes that you want to look for and set different thresholds for warnings. Some consumers may want a warning for a minor hailstorm, others may only want to be alerted of a tornado or hurricane. You can export that information to Google Earth for specific locations and make predictions in real time.” This emphasis on accuracy above all else comes from the group’s military background, where troop formations and infantry movement is often dependent on only the most precise weather information. “When you’re doing this for the military, you can’t be wrong,” said Jay Southerland, CEO of international operations. One of Carlson’s first hires was Roco Calaci, a meteorologist who has worked with NASA and the White House and helped develop the technology for the NSC based on the military’s skeletal computer system framework. “We bring in raw data such as satellite information, weather information, and weather stations reports, and using military trained weather forecasters, we look at the data and make smart predictions,” said Calaci. But why are public organizations not better at predicting the weather? The National Weather Service, for example, is not able to provide this level of accuracy because their charter does not allow for site-specific alerts. They also deal with budget constraints and simply do not have the manpower to track all severe weather events. In addition, many hailstorms, high winds and tornados fly under the radar, so to speak, and are too small to be picked up by their algorithms. “And a lot of weather organizations won’t issue a warning until they have some sort of visual confirmation,” said Carlson. “By then it’s too late. We save lives by more accurately predicting severe weather, instead of telling you a tornado has touched down after the fact.” The NSC technology, however, has no such constraints, and Southerland sees endless possibilities for the technology. “Right now, we’re going to be a mainly business-to-business company, but in the next six months we’re going to begin marketing to individual consumers and even release a mobile phone application,” said Southerland. “We’re also starting a pilot program in Australia soon to take this worldwide.” The NSC recently announced a partnership with SkyBell, a company of WiFi video doorbells that will come equipped with temperature, pressure and humidity monitors. This of course means increasing the number of national data points from a few thousand to a few million. “This partnership will provide more accurate weather to all,” said Desiree Mejia, CEO 5522 | |B Buusisninesess sC Clilmimaatet e| |n nwwflflbbuusisninesesscslcilmimaatet.ec.ocomm of SkyBell. They also launched a public-adjustor partnership, which will be a liaison between the homeowner, contractor and insurance carrier, a first-of-its-kind program. The public adjustor will go toe to toe with insurance carriers to maximize a claim for the homeowner. (continued on page 3)