10 YEARS OF BUILDING A COMPANY IN WALES
ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT
2015 - 2025
JANE TRANTER FOREWORD BY
IT WAS A GAMBLE TO BUILD BAD WOLF OUTSIDE LONDON, BUT WE HAD A VISION. “ ”
Anyonesettinguptheirowncompanydoessowith asenseofnervousness,andthiswascertainlytrue for Julie and I as we started out on our Bad Wolf journey.
We gave up successful, safe, corporate jobs in Los Angeles to dive into a new business that, at that time, had no investment. Once we had agreed on where to HQ the company (it was always going to be Wales!) I moved my family from their home, their schools and the sunny climes of California to gobacktotheUK.
Thesewereundeniablyscarytimes,personallyand professionallyasitwasagambletobuildBadWolf outsideLondon.Butwehadavision(influencedby years of working with the crews in New York) and knew that the talent, ambition and commitment washeretodoit.
In addition, we had inward investment from HBO and Sky and a partnership with the Welsh Government in place. And once we had the creative brilliance of the His Dark Materials trilogy in development, everything really began to start moving.
CEO and Co-Founder
BAD WOLF SET OUT NOT TO IMPORT PRODUCTIONS AND CREATIVE TEAMS TO WALES BUT TO ROOT THEM HERE PERMANENTLY
AND IN SUCCESS, TO GROW THEM HERE, LOCALLY.
”
Now 10 years later Bad Wolf has produced more good work than we could ever have imagined in those early days, and Cardiff as a centre of excellence for drama is a powerful demonstration of what passion, creativity and sheerhardgraftcanachieve.
Against the backdrop of an uncertain future for the global TV industry, Bad Wolf’s growth and successful track record can be seen as a rallying cry for Wales, showing that world class television can be built from the ground up, anywhere. A
It was Natasha’s suggestion early on that Wales needed its own bespoke screen training organisation and that Wolf Studios needed a classroom.
But when creating Screen Alliance Wales, neither of us could have anticipated that within 10 years the organisation would have touched the lives of over80,000people.
To me, all the figures in this report are equally mind-boggling.IcametoWaleswithadream,full of ambition and a desire to find consistent employment for people where they lived. To est imaginings did I think we would achieve what we
BAD WOLF IS NOW SO MUCH BIGGER THAN A COMPANY. IT ’ S A HUGE COMMUNITY OF PEOPLE.
BadWolfisnowsomuchbiggerthanacompany. It’s a huge community of people and the success reflected here in this report is a testament to all those who have worked tirelessly to bring Bad Wolf’svisiontolife.
There are too many people to thank here, but there are some who have helped, quite literally, pull the company through some of its hardest times, often putting their own lives and families on hold to do so. Dan McCulloch, Mary Furlong, Joel Collins - none of this would have happened withoutyou.
The success detailed in this report vividly demonstrates that the people of Cardiff and Wales have the creativity to build an economic impact of this scale; and illustrates what the TV industry can do for economic growth and levelling-upoutsideLondon.
I think if I had to single out the one thing I am most proud of - apart from the hours of exceptional drama produced and the thousands of young and older people who’ve come through Wolf Studios Wales - it would be that Bad Wolf has proven what the television industry can really do for the economy outside of London. For jobs, for wealth, for the people and for their communities. Bad Wolf did this, and I am so proudofthat.
Jane Tranter, CBE CEOandCo-Founder
BAD WOLF - THE STOR
YSO FAR...
£ FINDINGS KEY
Bad Wolf was the largest independent production company in the UK in 2024, based on turnover.1
736.7
MILLION
The scale of Bad Wolf productions is unprecedented. Between 2015 and 2025, the company spent a total of £736.7 million on the productionof20televisionseasonsacrosstheUK.
11,613
Across the whole of the UK, Bad Wolf generated 11,613 FTEs and £881.5 million in GVA for the UK economybetween2015and2025. FTEs
222
MILLION
Bad Wolf productions His Dark Materials and Industry (both HBO) and The Winter King (MGM+), among others have helped attract over £222 millioninforeigndirectinvestmentsince2015 . 2
2,101 FTEs
Bad Wolf created 2101 FTEs in local cast and crew employment for Welsh crews between 2015 and2025.
344.1
MILLION IN GVA IN WALES
The economic impact of Bad Wolf generated 344.1 million GVA and 5392 FTEs for the Welsh economybetween2015and2025.
40.4 MILLION
A further £40.4 million of expenditure resulted from Bad Wolf’s corporate operations (including the operation of Wolf Studios, 50% of total expenditure on average over the decade) between2015and2025.
At the heart of the Bad Wolf project has been a team of people who were determined to achieve commercial success whilst working just as hard to embed their company in the community.
Chair of Tinopolis and former Chair of the Welsh Government Creative Industries Sector Panel
Ron Jones
SUMMARY
BAD WOLF IS A CREATIVE ECONOMIC SUCCESS STORY
During its first decade of operation (2015-2025) Bad Wolf has generated significant economic impact for the UK economy. Through its production of high-end TV (HETV) drama, Bad Wolf spent a total of £736.7millionbetween2017and2025,thevastmajorityofwhichwasUKspend.
Bad Wolf’s production activities, including impacts within and outside Wales, generated, on a gross basis,atotalof11,613FTEsofemploymentand£881.5millioninGVAbetween2015and2025.
THIS TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ON A UK-WIDE BASIS INCLUDED:
4,821
4,015
2,778 FTEs FTEs
4,821 FTEs, £262.3 million in COE and £425.8 million in GVA directly within the television production and postproductionindustries.
4,015FTEs,£145.0millioninCOEand£283.6millioninGVAwithin businesses that supply goods and services to the television productionandpost-productionindustriesintheUK;and,
2,778 FTEs, £94.2 million in COE and £172.1 million in GVA across the UK economy on account of direct-impact and indirect-impact workers re-spending their wages on consumerpurchases.
Bad Wolf has also generated myriad significant positive economic and social impacts for Wales, whilst also delivering considerable value for money for Wales when compared to the £11 million of financialsupportprovidedtoitbytheWelshGovernment.3
Out of this total production spending of £736.7 million, cast, crew, suppliers and intellectual property (IP) holders based in Wales accounted for £347.1 million or 47% of total expenditures. Indeed, 93% of thesetotalexpendituresoccurredintheUK.
TABLE 1: BAD WOLF PRODUCTIONS, 2015-2025
BAD WOLF PRODUCTIONS MADE IN WALES
HisDarkMaterials(Season1)
HisDarkMaterials(Season2)
HisDarkMaterials(Season3)
ADiscoveryofWitches(Season1)
ADiscoveryofWitches(Season2)
ADiscoveryofWitches(Season3)
DoctorWho(Specials&Season14)
DoctorWho(Season15)
Industry(Season1)
Industry(Season2)
Industry(Season3)
Industry(Season4)
DopeGirls
TheWarBetweentheLandandtheSea
TheOtherBennetSister
BAD WOLF PRODUCTIONS MADE OUTSIDE WALES*
IHateSuzie(Season1)
IHateSuzieToo(Season2)
TheWinterKing
RedEye(Season1)
RedEye(Season2)
Source: Bad Wolf. *Note: While these productions were filmed or based outside of Wales, they still had Welsh spend associated with them throughproductionsuppliesandservicespurchasesandcrew.
In addition to this £736.7 million in UK based production spend, Bad Wolf productions such as His Dark Materials and Industry have helped attract at least £222 million in foreign direct investment. After taking into account the additional turnover and expenditures associated with Wolf Studios Wales and Bad Wolf’s corporate operations this brought the total value of Bad Wolf’s Welsh spend to £378.6 millionbetween2015and2025.
One of the key areas through which Bad Wolf has had a positive local economic impact has been through the hundreds of production-sector jobs it has created within South Wales. Across its 20 television seasons, Bad Wolf has created 2,101 full-time equivalents (FTEs) of employment for 2,652 Welshresidentsworkingontheirproductioncrews. 4
3
Thisfigureexcludesa£2millioninvestmentbytheWelshgovernmentintoaspecificTVprojectSPV.
The initial government support for Bad Wolf was not initially welcomed by all our political parties. 10 years on it’s a textbook example of how government can intervene to support companies and industries bringing long-term benefits to Wales.
Ron Jones
Chair of Tinopolis and former Chair of the Welsh Government Creative Industries Sector Panel
2025 on the purchase of supplies and services (including visual effects (VFX) and post-production services) from Wales-based businesses. These purchases not only generated significant indirect and induced economic impacts across the Welsh economy but contributed to the sustainability and growthofmanylocalsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs).
After taking into account all of the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of Bad Wolf’s activities as well as the additionality of those impacts, this analysis finds that Bad Wolf generated an additional economic impact of 4,044 FTEs of employment, £159.2 million in compensation of employment(COE)and£258.1millioninGVAfortheWelsheconomybetween2015and2025.
1,887
1,571
586 FTEs FTEs FTEs
1,887 FTEs, £90.9 million in COE and £126.2 million in GVA directly within the television production and post-production industries in Wales.
1,571 FTEs, £50.3 million in COE and £98.9 million in GVA within businesses based in Wales that supply goods and services to the televisionproductionandpost-productionindustriesinWales;and,
586 FTEs, £18.1 million in COE and £33.0 million in GVA across the Welsh economy on account of direct-impact and indirect-impact workers re-spending their wages on consumer purchases within Wales.
The additional employment and economic activity generated by Bad Wolf – has yielded both £23.46 in GVA for every £1.00 invested by the Welsh Government and 368 FTEs of employment for every £1 millionoffinancialsupport.
This strong value-for-money performance, however, understates the value of Bad Wolf’s wider economic and social impact which will likely provide the basis for even further long-term development of the screen cluster and creative industries within South Wales. Many of the wider impacts have been achieved through Bad Wolf philanthropic work via Screen Alliance Wales (SAW) –whichwascreatedandlaunchedbyBadWolf.
To date, SAW has facilitated 579 work placements, 192 traineeships, as well as advertising for a further 166 roles between 2021-2025. Its educational outreach programme has reached 53,199 young people acrossWalesthroughface-to-faceoutreachand21,131throughdigitaloutreach. SAWhasalsofacilitated5,434studiovisitsforyoungpeople.
With the exception of 2021, Bad Wolf has been among the UK’s top 20 independent production companies in terms of annual turnover. Outside of London, it has been consistently within the top 10 andtheleadingproductioncompanyin2020,2023and2024.
With Bad Wolf’s strong growth over the past 5 years, by 2024, it was not only the largest independent productioncompanyoutsideofLondon,butthelargestintheUK.
BAD WOLF'S RANKING VS OTHER INDEPENDENT PRODUCTION COMPANIES IN TERMS OF ANNUAL TURNOVER, UK AND OUT OF LONDON, 2020-2024
Source:Broadcastindiesurvey(2021to2025)
FILM AND TELEVISION PRODUCTION IN THE UK
2015-2025
For well over a decade film and television production has not only been an engine of economic growth within the UK’s creative industries, but also for the wider UK economy.
Following the introduction of tax relief for HETV production(i.e.televisionproductionwithbudgets over £1 million per episode broadcast), the value of annual spending on film and HETV production intheUKincreasedfrom£1.6billionto£5.6billion, peaking at over £7.1 billion in 2022 – an average annualgrowthrateof16.0%(Figure1).
Indeed, in the space of only 10 years, the annual value of HETV production in the UK increased almosttwelve-fold–from£415milliontoover£4.8 billion.
In 2019, the total value of HETV production in the UK exceeded the value of film production for the first time. This achievement was driven in large part by the UK’s ability to successfully position itself as a leading supplier of content to growing global subscription video on demand (SVOD) services, including Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+,HBOMaxandAppleTV+.
FIGURE 1:
OF STUDY REMIT AND OUTLINE
In2022,BadWolfpublished The Economic Impact of Bad Wolf - The First Five Years: 2015-2020.In2025, Bad Wolf appointed Saffery LLP, working with Nordicity, to update that 2022 report and carry out an analysis of the economic, social and cultural impact of Bad Wolf over its first 10 years of operation, 2015to2025.
Inparticular,theanalysisinthefollowingreportexaminesBadWolf’simpactintermsofits:
RecordofjobcreationwithinWales
Impactonspecificlocalbusinesses
(i.e.howBadWolfhasworkedwithspecificlocalbusinesses,theimpactontheselocalbusinesses, jobscreatedandnewbusinessesattractedtoWales)
Impactonlocalsupplychains
(i.e.theeffectonotherlocalbusinesseswithinthescreensectorandthelocaleconomymorewidely)
Widerimpactonthelocaleconomy
Generationofadditionalgrossvalueadded(GVA)fortheWelsheconomy
Impactonotherorganisationsandcharities(includingtheatreandartsgroups)
ImpactinincreasingdiversityandtacklingissuesincludingsocialexclusionandpovertyinWales
Impactonlocalworkforcedevelopment(includingtheworkofScreenAllianceWales)
Broadereducationalimpact
(includinglinkswithschools,furtherandhighereducationorganisationsandtheclassroominthestudio)
Impactonthelocalcreativeindustry
(includinghowithasstimulatednewbusinessandcreativeopportunities)
These various channels of economic and social impact help to create a reinforcing cycle that has the potential to yield a positive return on investment (for the Welsh Government and economy) whilst creating the foundation for a self-sustaining screen production sector in the future (depicted in Figures 2below).
FIGURE 2: OVERVIEW OF BAD WOLF'S ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT
RETURN ON PUBLIC INVESTMENT
WIDER SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT
EMPLOYING WELSH CREWS
TALENT DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPING THE LOCAL SUPPLY CHAIN
WIDER ECONOMIC IMPACT
DEVELOPING THE CREATIVE CLUSTER
METHODOLOGY APPROACH AND
2.3.1 Primary research and desk research
2.3
Theprimaryresearchconsistedofbothstakeholderconsultationsandanindustrysurvey.Forthestakeholderconsultations,SafferyLLP and Nordicity conducted interviews with individuals and organisations from within Wales’ screen sector. An online survey was also distributed to local businesses that supply goods and services to Bad Wolf, including tenants at Bad Wolf Studios. A total of 16 local businesses responded to the survey. The primary research was complemented by desk research. In particular, the study team reviewed documents and data sets related to Bad Wolf’s production activity and expenditures and corporate operations. The study team also reviewedavarietyofdocumentsoutliningthevarioussocial,culturalandphilanthropicinitiativessupportedbyBadWolf.
2.3.2 Economic impact modelling
The data and information gathered through the desk research – and to a lesser extent the primary research – was used to prepare the economic impact modelling. Nordicity used its MyEIA™ Model to generate these estimates of economic impact. This model is based on the input-output tables and other economic statistics published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and provides estimates of the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts (see definitions in Box 2) in terms of full-time equivalents (FTEs) of employment, compensationofemployment(COE)andGVA(seedefinitioninBox1).
BOX 1:WHAT IS GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA)?
GVAisthestandardmeasureusedbytheONSandothernationalstatisticalagenciesformeasuringthemonetaryvalueofeconomic activity and the economic performance of industries. Unlike turnover, which measures the income collected by a firm or industry from the sale of its final product or service, GVA essentially measures the value ‘added’ by that firm or industry to the inputs purchased from other firms or industries in order to create its final products or services for sale. GVA can be calculated by either summing the value of payments to workers and suppliers of capital or deducting the value of purchase of goods, materials and servicesfromtotalturnover.GVAprovidesamuchmoreindicativemeasureofeconomicactivity,particularlywhensummingactivity acrossdifferentindustries.GVAremovesthedoublecountinginherentinothermeasuressuchasturnover.Whenafirm’sturnoveris summed with the turnover of its upstream suppliers, the turnover of the latter is counted twice. However, because GVA measures theunduplicatedvalueofeconomicactivity,thereisnosuchdoublecounting.
ThebespokenatureoftheMyEIAModel™meansthatitcanprovidereliableestimatesforanyindustry,evenifthatindustryisnotamong the industries that comprise ONS’s input-output tables. With detailed data on expenditures within an industry or any type of economic shock,theMyEIAModel™cangenerateestimatesofdirect,indirectandinducedeconomicimpacts.
BOX 2: TYPES OF ECONOMIC IMPACT
Directeconomicimpactreferstotheemployment,COEandGVAgenerateddirectlywithinthescreensub-sectorsinWales.
Indirect economic impact refers to the increased employment, COE and GVA experienced by the businesses located in Wales that providesuppliesandservicestobusinessesandotherorganisationsoperatinginthescreensub-sectors.
Induced economic impact refers to the increased employment, COE and GVA experienced across the wider Welsh economy, when workers employed on account of the direct and indirect impacts proceed to spend their earnings within Scotland on purchases of consumergoodsandservices.
Spillover impacts occur when industries outside of the screen sector value chain (e.g. the tourism sector) benefit from screen content. For example, screen tourism can generate additional spending on accommodation, meals, transport and shopping within theWelsheconomy,therebyraisingemployment,COEandGVA.
Nordicity’s MyEIA™ Model also provides a regional breakdown of the economic impact that results from a government intervention or an economic shock that occurs within a given region of the UK. Regional impacts within the MyEIA™ Model are assessed for the nations and English regions within the UK, including Wales. This means that the MyEIA™ Model effectively permits one to assess how an economic shock that occurs in Wales would affect employment, COE and GVA within Wales and in each of the other nations and regions of the UK. For this particular analysis, however, the MyEIA™ Model was only used to assess the impact within Wales and the rest of the UK (“RoUK”) inaggregate.
AmoredetaileddescriptionoftheMyEIA™ModelcanbefoundinAppendixD. Allmonetaryfiguresinthisreportareexpressedincurrentpricesandnotadjustedforpriceinflationbetween2015and2025.
IMPACT TOTAL ECONOMIC
ACROSS THE UK GROSS ECONOMIC IMPACT
Inthefollowingsection,wesummarisetheresultsofouranalysisofthetotalimpactthatBadWolfhadon the Welsh economy between 2015-2025, including the direct, indirect and induced impacts of Bad Wolf’s production and other business activities. We examine the gross and additional impacts on the Welsh economy. WealsopreparedananalysisofBadWolf’sgrossimpactonthewiderUKeconomy,throughany television production undertaken outside of Wales or its incorporation of cast, crew or suppliers based outsideofWales.
FIGURE 3: SUMMARY
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
When viewed on a UK-wide basis (including impacts within and outside Wales), Bad Wolf’s production activities generated, on a gross basis, a total of 11,613 FTEs of employment, £501.4 million in COE and £881.5 million in GVA between 2015 and 2025 (Figure 6). This total UK-wide impact included 4,821 FTEs, and £425.8 million in GVA directly within the television production and post-production industries in the UK;andafurther6,793FTEsand£455.6millioninGVAwithinBadWolf’ssupplychainandacrossthewider UKeconomy(duetoworkersre-spendingtheirwagesonconsumerpurchaseswithintheUK).
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
TABLE 2: SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT OF BAD WOLF, UK ECONOMY, 2015-2025
ACROSS THE UK ANNUAL IMPACT
Basedonproductionspendacrossthe20televisionprogrammesproducedbyBadWolfbetween2015and 2025, annual economic impact across the UK varied from year to year, ranging from 459 FTEs and £34.8 millioninGVAin2017to2,650FTEsand£201.2millioninGVAin2023.
Source:SafferyChampness/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
FIGURE 5:
Source:SafferyChampness/Nordicity
IN WALES GROSS ECONOMIC IMPACT
FIGURE 6: SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT OF BAD WOLF ON WELSH ECONOMY, 2015-2025
TOTAL WELSH SPEND COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYMENT
378.6 MILLION
EMPLOYMENT
5,392 FTES
GVA 344.1 MILLION £ £
212.3 MILLION £
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
The economic impact associated with Bad Wolf’s principal photography, spending on VFX and postproduction, and corporate operations indicates that Bad Wolf generated a total of 5,392 FTEs of employment,£212.3millioninCOEand£344.1millioninGVAfortheWelsheconomybetween2015and 2025.
This total impact included 2,516 FTEs and £168.2 million in GVA directly within the television production and post-production industries in Wales; and a further 2,876 FTEs and £175.9 million in GVA within Bad Wolf’s supply chain and across the wider Welsh economy (through workers re-spending theirwagesonconsumerpurchaseswithinWales).
TABLE 3: SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT OF BAD WOLF ON WELSH ECONOMY, 2015-2025
(FTES)
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
IN WALES ANNUAL IMPACT
BasedonWelshproductionspendacrossthe20televisionprogrammesproducedbyBadWolfbetween 2015 and 2025, annual economic impact in Wales varied from year to year, ranging from 218 FTEs and £14.9millioninGVAin2017to1,211FTEsand£83.9millioninGVAin2023.
FIGURE 7: BAD WOLF PRODUCTION ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT IMPACT, WALES, 2015-2025 (FTES)
Source:SafferyChampness/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf.
8:
Source:SafferyChampness/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf.
FIGURE
IMPACT
IN WALES
9:
The location of Bad Wolf’s headquarters in Wales, and the production of its various television series in Wales,wasmadepossiblebyamulti-yearpublicinvestmentmadebytheWelshGovernment.Toassess the value for money delivered by this public investment we have estimated the additional economic impact generated by this intervention. We have therefore converted the estimates of the gross impact on the Welsh economy into estimates of the net impact on the Welsh economy, after considering the economicadditionalityofBadWolf’sproductionactivities.
After taking into account the additionality of the economic activity stimulated in Wales by Bad Wolf Productions’ principal photography, spending on VFX and post-production, and corporate operations, weconcludethatBadWolfgeneratedanadditionaleconomicimpactof4,044FTEsofemployment, £159.2 million in COE and £258.1 million in GVA for the Welsh economy between 2015 and 2025 (Figure9).Thistotaladditionalimpactincluded1,887FTEsand£126.2millioninGVAdirectlywithinthe television production and post-production industries in Wales and a further 2,157 FTEs and £131.9 millioninGVAwithinBadWolf’ssupplychaininWalesandacrossthewiderWelsheconomy.
TABLE 4: SUMMARY OF ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF BAD WOLF ON WELSH ECONOMY, 2015-2025
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
THE WELSH GOVERNMENT
The Welsh economy has benefitted from £23.5 million in additional GVA and 368 FTEs of additional employment in return for each £1 million funded by the Welsh Government.
To date, Bad Wolf has achieved £347.1 million of the Welsh production spend required by its agreement with the Welsh Government. This £347.1 million included £86.1 million paid directly to Wales-based personnel and £205.7 million paid to local suppliers of goods and services, including local providers of VFX and post-production services (£26.1 million). The balance of this local spend accounted for production fees and production overhead expensesatBadWolf.
Our analysis indicates that this £347.1 million in Welshproductionspendgeneratedanadditional 4,044 FTEs of employment and £258.1 million in GVA for the Welsh economy between 2015 and 2025.
The Welsh Government has played a strategic role in creating a fiscal situation that would permit Bad Wolf to grow and be globally competitivefromitsbaseinCardiff.
The original £9 million in total funding from the Welsh Government consisted of a £4.5 million repayable advance (paid up front in instalments with interest payable) and a £4.5 million grant paid on achievement of milestones for Welsh spending. An additional £2 million has been received by Bad Wolf as part of a second package.
In other words, for each £1 million invested by the Welsh Government, the Welsh economy has benefitted from £23.5 million in additional GVA and368FTEsofadditionalemployment.
CHAIN IMPACT AND SUPPLY LOCAL JOB CREATION
CREW LOCAL CAST AND
Huw Thomas Cardiff Council
One of the key areas through which Bad Wolf has had a positive impact on the local economy has been through the creation of hundreds of jobs within South Wales.
FIGURE 10: SUMMARY OF LOCAL CAST AND CREW EMPLOYMENT IMPACT, 2015 - 2025
NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS EMPLOYED
2,652 INDIVIDUALS
FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS
2,101 FTES
54
SHARE OF TOTAL UK CREW COE %
COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYMENT*
86.1 MILLION £
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.
*IncludesthevalueofsalariesandwagespaidtoemployeeandfreelancecrewresidinginWales.
Across the 20 Welsh-based television series produced between 2015 and 2025, Bad Wolf created 2,101 FTEs of employment for 2,652 individual Welsh residents working on their production crews. Further employmentwascreatedinVFXandpost-productionandinBadWolf’scorporateoperations.
In more detail, Bad Wolf’s expenditures on the principal photography of its television projects generated4,744FTEsofemploymentinWalesbetween2015and2025.
THIS TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IMPACT INCLUDED:
2,101
1,980
663
directly within film and television production – i.e. employment ascast,crewandextras;
of indirect impact employment – i.e. employment at companies that supply goods and services to Bad Wolf’s projects (e.g. equipmenthire,travelandaccommodation,legalandaccounting services);and
of induced impact employment – i.e employment generated on account of direct-impact and indirect-impact workers respendingtheirwagesonconsumerpurchases.
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.
*IncludesthevalueofsalariesandwagespaidtoemployeeandfreelancecrewresidinginWales.
LocalcastandcrewonBadWolfproductionsformasignificantproportionofthetotalcrew.Welshcrew earned £86.1 million in employment income across the television projects included in this analysis. This represented 54% of the overall UK cast and crew costs (£160.2 million) of those projects and 53% ofglobalcastandcrewcosts(£163.3m)onthoseprojects.
Bad Wolf’s productions have not only given us consistent opportunities but have also raised the bar for the entire creative industry in Wales. Their support has allowed us to expand our team and nurture home-grown talent.
Soulset Construction
LOCAL EMPLOYMENT IN VFX AND
POST-PRODUCTION
“
Painting Practice
In addition to the cast and crew employment created by Bad Wolf’s principal photography, the company’s spending on VFX and post-production in Wales generated a further 545 FTEs of local employment,including:
directlywithinVFXandpost-productionstudiosinWales.
of indirect impact employment within industries that supply goods and services to these VFX and post-production companies based in Wales;and
across the Welsh economy on account of direct-impact and indirectimpactworkersre-spendingtheirwagesonconsumerpurchases
IMPACTS CORPORATE EMPLOYMENT
Lastly, Bad Wolf’s corporate operations, including the operation of Wolf Studios Wales, generated a further 103 FTEs of employment in Wales, including:
4.4
EMPLOYMENT IMPACT
In total, across principal photography, VFX and post-production, and corporate operations, Bad Wolf generated a further 5,392 FTEs of local employment between 2015 and 2025. This total included:
2,516 ofdirectemploymentwithintheTVproductionindustry; of indirect impact employment within industries that supply goodsandservicestotheTVproductionindustry;and
2,094
FTEs FTEs FTEs
781 ofinducedemploymentacrosstheWelsheconomy
TABLE 5: FTES CREATED BY BAD WOLF (WALES) 2015-2025
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
*TheaveragedirectemploymentacrossBadWolf’scorporateoperationsbetween2015-2025.
Bad Wolf has been instrumental in driving the growth of the creative industries in Wales. At Real SFX, we work closely with them and have built a strong partnership that has not only strengthened the local supply chain but also supported the development of Welsh talent. Their productions have created significant opportunities for businesses like ours and played a vital role in raising the profile of the Welsh screen sector on both a national and international stage. Just as importantly, we share a deep commitment to sustainability, and with Bad Wolf leading the way, we are proud to help shape a greener, more responsible future for the screen industries in Wales and beyond.
“
In first started at Wolf studios in April 2017 as a freelance Construction Manager and was part of the local contractors team building the studios. It didn’t even have a name back then!. It was amazing to be asked to take on a full time permanent job there and I’ve now been the manager at Wolf Studios Wales for 7 Years. It’s a very busy studio and on occasions it’s been really tough but I’m so proud of what we’ve all built here in Cardiff, Wales (my home town!). Even at its most hectic time not a day goes by that I do not want to come to work, roll up the sleeves and get on with what is required to keep Wolf Studios Wales’s premier studio.
Lee Jackson Wolf Studios Wales Manager
”
Allison Dowzell MD, Screen Alliance Wales
ANALYSIS OF LOCAL
PRODUCTION SPENDING “
As a Welsh location caterer based in Cardiff, we have been fortunate to develop a long standing and beneficial relationship with Bad Wolf over the last decade. The work we have carried out for Bad Wolf contracts has allowed us to increase the size of our team, develop many contacts and friendships within the industry in Wales and reinvest in our fleet and equipment. We also have in turn, been able to support our own Welsh suppliers and spend with local companies to help us produce the tasty food and services we have delivered!
Harry Smith Scene Cuisine
”Bad Wolf is committed to growing the economy of Wales through partnerships with local businesses.
The creation of this local supply chain is a key aspect of Bad Wolf’s ethos and has had a significant impact on the local economy. Production incentives in the form of tax reliefs were of course available in the past, but largescale productions could previously not easily have been serviced because of the lack of an establishedlocalsupplychain.
What Bad Wolf has managed to do is to nurture an ecosystem of local suppliers that has started to make productions more locally self-sufficient. There are now the people and companies necessary to supply the required skills to service a production – from set design to construction to catering.
Through an analysis of Bad Wolf’s production budgets, corporate operations and studio operations, we have estimated the value of Bad Wolf’s local spending on supplies and services (Table 6). In total, between 2015 and 2025, Bad Wolf spent an estimated £312.6 million onthepurchaseofsuppliesandservices.
Payments to Welsh suppliers accounted for £205.7 million or 50% of Bad Wolf’s total spending on supplies and services (£411.0 million).Spendingonstudiosandbuildspacefor Bad Wolf’s production accounted for the largest singlecategoryoflocalspending(£39.9million).
Other categories of significant local spending (i.e. budget categories where spending in Wales was both higher than elsewhere in the UK whilst also exceeding £1 million) included procurement of materials (£37.5 million), insurance, finance and legal (£21.6 million), travel and transport (£18.9 million), hotel and living expenses (£17.0 million), rental of production equipment (15.7million),rentalofotherproductionfacilities and location fees (£14.1 million) and special effects(£5.9million).
Local companies have reported that the scale of productions brought by Bad Wolf to South Wales has had a significant effect on their businesses. Indeed, over 80% of Bad Wolf’s suppliers reported that their turnover had increased since 2015 at least partly because of Bad Wolf being located in the local area. This demonstrates the tangible impact that Bad Wolf has had on individuallocalbusinesses.
6:
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf *Theshareoftotalspendingintheproduction-budgetcategorythatwaspaidtosuppliersbasedinWales.
GEO-MAPPING OF
BAD WOLF’S
LOCAL SUPPLIERS
A geo-mapping of Bad Wolf’s largest suppliers between 2021 and 2023 shows that it maintains a very localsupplychain.WhileanumberofthesesupplierswereLondonbased,wherepossibleBadWolfhas continued to work with companies based in South Wales, particularly Cardiff and the West of England insomecases.
Formanyoftheselocalsuppliers,thenewbusinessfromBadWolfdirectlysupportedthecreationof10 or more FTEs. For other suppliers, the job creation was less; however, Bad Wolf’s ongoing slate of TV productionhasofferedthestabilitythatpermitsinvestmentinnewpositionsandemployees.
FIGURE 11: BAD WOLF LOCAL SUPPLIER LOCATIONS (WALES) 2021-2023
Source:BadWolf.Note:SizerepresentsvalueofserviceprovidedtoBadWolfProductions2021-2023,£.
FIGURE 12: BAD WOLF LOCAL SUPPLIER LOCATIONS, WALES AND THE WIDER SOUTHWEST OF ENGLAND, 2021-2023
Source:BadWolf.Note:SizerepresentsvalueofserviceprovidedtoBadWolfProductions2021-2023,£.
BAD WOLF ’ S WIDER SOCIAL AND
CULTURAL IMPACT
SCREEN ALLIANCE WALES
“Over the past decade, Bad Wolf has provided the consistent pipeline of work that our industry needs. This has helped companies and freelancers alikeproviding a huge opportunity for full time employment, with up-skilling opportunities across multiple series and via the now independent ‘Screen Alliance Wales’ which we are proud to sponsor.
Richard Moss Managing Director at Gorilla
”Bad Wolf created Screen Alliance Wales in 2017 as an essential part of the company’s vision. SAW is based on the premise that everyone should be able to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the existence of a large production company based in Cardiff and creates a virtuous circle by ensuring therighttraining,talentandinfrastructureexiststosupportBadWolfproductions.
BadWolf’strainingmodelisboldbecauseitbringsapotentialrisktoproductions,bytakingontrainees with no track record. Most productions prefer to use experienced crew who they know, and Bad Wolf has had to win the hearts and minds of executives on each show by demonstrating that it is an ethos that is core to what Bad Wolf does. Bad Wolf, via Screen Alliance Wales, has created training opportunitiestohelpnewentrantsintotheindustryinanumberofways.SAWimpactsindividualsfrom lower socio-economic backgrounds, providing a pathway into the industry for those who might otherwisefacebarriers.ThethreemainareasofSAW’sworkinclude:
WorkExperience,TraineeshipsandPathways
Afullcrewproductiondirectoryandpromotionofjobopportunities
Inspiringyoungpeoplethrougheducationandstudiovisits
Bad Wolf ensures that SAW has a unique resource in the form of a purpose-built classroom located inside Wolf Studios Wales. This enables it to offer educational tours and talks for young people to help them to learn about the Welsh film and television industry. There are generally between 9 and 18 youngpeopleineachsession.
Since2018,SAWhasreachedalargenumberofyoungpeoplethroughitseducationalwork. Thetotalfiguressofarinclude:
IMPACT OF SCREEN ALLIANCE WALES SINCE 2018
579 workshadowing placements
192 traineeships
5,434 studiovisits
53,199 facetofaceoutreach opportunities
21,131 digitaloutreach opportunities
80,000 individualsreached
PHILANTHROPY
There has been no company in Wales over the last ten years that has taken its role as a corporate citizen as much to heart as Bad Wolf.
Ron Jones
Chair of Tinopolis and former Chair of the Welsh Government Creative Industries Sector Panel
infrastructure. Bad Wolf’s work with young people is a driver for creating opportunities and harnessing talent. There are areas of severe deprivation and lack of opportunity and many people will never have consideredacareerinTV.
By providing significant local employment opportunities, Bad Wolf provides a rich and exciting opportunityfordifferenttypesofemploymentwiththepotentialforsocialandculturalimpact.
TheheartoftheBadWolfethosisanimportantprincipalthateveryjobisadvertised.BadWolfseeksto nurture new and emerging talent. These open and fair recruitment campaigns seek to redress the balance and some consultees commented that it is rare to find such a diverse company in the screen sector.
Thereisanemphasisonincreasingdiversityandpromotinggenderequalityandthenumberofwomen in senior and management roles is above the industry average. As well as using the wealth of Welsh talentandresources,thisapproachishelpingtogetrichanddiversevoicesintotheindustry.
Street Football Wales Team
“Our longstanding partnership with Bad Wolf allies with the Royal Welsh College’s focus on supporting talented students from underrepresented communities to access our conservatoire level training and development opportunities. Through this collaboration, they gain valuable industry experience and clear progression routes, helping them transition confidently into professional careers and contribute to a more vibrant, inclusive future workforce for the arts in Wales.
.
Royal Welsh College of Music and Drama
”Over the years Bad Wolf has supported 49 charities, both financially and in kind – creating symbiotic partnershipsthataddsvaluetotheworkofthesenationalinstitutions.
Theseincludekeyrelationshipswith:
BAFTACymru Hijinx
TheFilm&TVCharity TheOtherRoom
Sherman
TheatrClwyd
IrisPrize It’sMyShout
RoyalWelshCollege ofMusicandTheatre RTSCymru
WestGlamorgan YouthTheatre
WalesNational Theatre
The company has also expanded its philanthropy via a circular economy model which ensures that surplus props, costumes and sets are distributed to the Welsh community via charities, schools, collegesandmore.
To date these partnerships have provided much-needed items and income generation to over 120 charitiesandorganisations.
Royal Welsh College of Music and Drama Bad Wolf Scholars
“
Hijinx Actors visit SAW Classroom and meet Lin Manuel Miranda
Iris Prize Festival
Bad Wolf have been consistently supportive of our talent development programmes, enabling us to really shine in this area. With their insightful commitment we have delivered detailed and bespoke opportunities for young people, laying the foundations for future generations of creative practitioners - for Wales and nationally. They are a joyful company whose ideals, enthusiasm and drive matches our own
Zoe Crick-Tucker
Theatr Clwyd
”A&B Cymru has had the pleasure of working with Bad Wolf on a range of its inspirational partnerships with the arts. Without exception, they have consistently had a tangible, positive impact on people and communities, providing unique creative opportunities while making a genuine contribution to diversifying the film industry in Wales.
Rachel Jones Arts and Business Cymru – Chief Executive
InMay,tocelebrate10yearsofBadWolf31membersofstaffclockedupanamazing180hoursof supportforthecharitiesweworkwith,aspartofouryear-roundWolfPackvolunteeringscheme.
Theatr Clwyd’s Creative Engagement Scheme
Litter Picking with Skills & Volunteering Cymru Volunteering at Llandough Children’s Centre
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
6.1
Bad Wolf was created with a clear vision: to make globally-recognised, successful, high-end television drama and to build a screen industry in Wales that would help turn it into an undeniable powerhouse for drama production.
Across 10 years, this aim has been achieved, and the company has shown that Wales has the breadth, depthandcapabilitynecessarytogrowitscreativeindustriesandprovideemployment52weeksofthe yearforlocalcrews.
Ten years ago, the screen sector in Wales lacked a creative and economic anchor. Any filming that did take place was reliant on bringing in people from elsewhere. By working in partnership with the Welsh production community and with support from the Welsh Government, Bad Wolf have changed this situation.
The company also identified that, if they were to realise their ambitions of producing multiple-season dramasyear-on-yearwithconsistentglobalreach,theyneededtofurthergrowtheproductioncapacity of Wales. Consequently, alongside a portfolio of high-quality drama, Bad Wolf established Wolf Studios Wales, a world-class production facility in Cardiff, and within that created Screen Alliance Wales, an innovativeeducationandtrainingnon-profitorganisation.
Bad Wolf is now rooted in its Welsh location and grew to be the UK’s largest independent production company in 2024. It took risks and invested in local production until the ecosystem was more mature anddeveloped.Thisambitionwasboldandhasbroughtverysignificantrewardstothelocaleconomy.
Bad Wolf has had great success with its recommissions. This means that its productions stay active for many years, across multiple seasons. These longer-term productions have allowed Bad Wolf to build longer-term structures and jobs, invest in local talent and enable a secure environment within which otherbusinessescanflourish.
By raising the visibility of Wales, the confidence of the local screen sector has increased. There is a new perception that you can make large-scale, high-quality drama in Wales. This confidence has led to new creative and production businesses being founded to service Bad Wolf, and other, productions. The resulthasbeenaresurgenceoffilmandTVproductioninWales.
A central part of the Bad Wolf philosophy has been to ensure that spending stays in Wales. This has meant working closely with local suppliers and developing local talent to meet the needs of productions.
International productions are increasingly mobile, and Wales therefore needs to be competitive and attractiveasafilminglocation.Filmmakersneedtobeassuredofaccesstothecrewsandservicesthey need. Bad Wolf, by spending locally, developing the local supply chain and growing talent, has helped todevelopalocalindustrythatprovidesthisassurance.
ExperiencehasproventhatthevisiontobuildacompanyoutsideofLondonwascorrect–BadWolfhas employed and developed local talent, enabled local creative companies to develop and provided new opportunities for other companies in the area. The effect of this has been to grow a foundling small industry into a significant sector. As a result, many more people can now imagine a career in the creativeindustriesandbenefitfromtheopportunitiesprovided.
The future, however, is by no means certain for Bad Wolf in Wales. Just over the past three years, the global screen industry has changed significantly. There is now less investment from the US into productions made outside of America. Budgets for high-end drama have already reduced considerably and this downturn is set to continue. Bad Wolf are having to adapt to these changes and in recent monthsWolfStudiosWaleshashademptystagesforthefirsttimeintenyears.
But Bad Wolf is resilient and over the years has had to adapt and change and now it will have to once again as this economic turbulence hits its sector. Bad Wolf has a strong business and creative base and its success to date shows that the company should be able to weather the storms of any economic uncertainlythatwillinevitablykeepimpactingtheTVsector.
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ABS AnnualBusinessSurvey
ASHE AnnualSurveyofHoursandEarnings
BFI BritishFilmInstitute
BRES BusinessRegisterandEmploymentSurvey
COE Compensationofemployment
D&B Dun&BradstreetHoovers
ESFA Education&SkillsFundingAgency
FE Furthereducation
FEI Furthereducationinstitutions
FTE Full-timeequivalent
GBTS GreatBritainTourismSurvey
GVA Grossvalueadded
HE Highereducation
HEI Highereducationinstitution
HESA HigherEducationStatisticsAgency
IDBR Inter-DepartmentalBusinessRegister
IPS InternationalPassengerSurvey
ONS OfficeforNationalStatistics
PSB PublicServiceBroadcaster
SVOD SubscriptionVideoonDemand
VOD VideoonDemand
ADDITIONALITY ASSUMPTIONS APPENDIX B
In accordance with HMT Green Book guidance, we assessed the additionality of Bad Wolf’s gross impact on the Welsh economy. That is, the net gain to the Welsh economy was determined after taking intoaccounthowmuchofthegrosseconomicimpactwouldhaveotherwiseoccurredintheabsenceof the Bad Wolf. Table A - 1 summarises the assumptions made with regards to various factors that affect theadditionalityofBadWolf’sproductionactivityandoperationsinWales.
Table C 1: Additionality assumptions
Additionality Factor Description
Deadweight
Substitution
Displacement
ReferstotheemploymentandGVAthatwould haveoccurredintheabsenceofagovernment intervention.
Referstosituationswhereagovernment interventionresultsinconsumersorbusinesses substitutingoneactivityforanother.Forexample, aprogrammethatsubsidisesbusinessesthathire newemployeesmayactuallyreplaceexisting employeeswithnewonesinordertotake advantageofthesubsidy.
Referstothedegreetowhichanyincreasein outputsandoutcomesgeneratedbyagovernment interventionreducesoutputsandoutcomes elsewhereinthegeographicarea.Displacement cantaketheformofeitherproduct-market displacementorfactor-marketdisplacement. Furthermore,thesmallerthegeographicdomain ofanintervention,thelesslikelythat displacementwilloccurwithinthatdomain.
Leakage
Referstothedegreetowhichagovernment interventiongeneratesbenefitssuchas employmentorincomeforindividualsor businesseslocatedoutsidethegeographic, sectoralorotherdomaintargetedbythe intervention.
Assessment and Modelling Assumptions
IntheabsenceofinterventionbytheWelsh Government,BadWolf’sproductionand operationswouldhaveverylikelybeenbased elsewhereintheUK.
Deadweight=0%
Notrelevantsincetheinterventiondoesnot requireBadWolftoalteritsproductionandor corporateworkforceinWalesinanymanner.
Substitution=0%
Theemploymentgeneratedbyincreased televisionproductioninWaleswilldrawworkers fromothersectorsoftheWelsheconomy. However,giventherelativelylowratesof economicperformanceinSouthWalesandthe relativehighdegreeofunemploymentand under-employment,wehaveassumedalowrate (25%)offactormarketdisplacement,in accordancewithpublishedreadyreckoner displacementrates.
Displacement=25%
Implicitlytakenintoaccountintheeconomic impactmodellingintworespects:1.Estimatesof economicimpacthavebeenbasedonaregional breakdownofproductionspending–Walesvs. RoUKvs.foreign.2.WithintheMyEIAModel, locationquotientsforWales(publishedbyONS) havebeenusedtoestimateanddeductany indirectorinducedimpactspending(andrelated employmentandGVA)thatleaksfromtheWelsh economy.
Additionality Factor Description
Multipliereffects
Overalladditionality rate
ReferstotheadditionalemploymentandGVA generatedwithinalocal,regionalornational economywhenincomeisre-spentwithinthatlocal economy.Multipliereffectsoccurwhendirect beneficiariesofinterventionspendwithintheir supplychain,therebygeneratinghigherincome andemploymentattheseupstreamsuppliers,and inturn,attheirsuppliers.Multipliereffectsalso occurwhendirectbeneficiariesandworkerswithin supplychainre-spendtheiradditionalincomeon consumerpurchaseswithinalocal,regionalor nationaleconomy.Thistypeofmultipliereffectis alsoreferredtoasaninducedimpact.
Netimpact=grossimpactx(1–deadweightrate)x (1–substitutionrate)x(1–displacementrate)x(1 –leakagerate)xMultipliereffects
Assessment and Modelling Assumptions
Implicitlytakenintoaccountintheestimatesof indirect(i.e.supplychain)andinducedimpacts providedbytheMyEIAModel.
Netimpact=grossimpactx(1–0%)x(1–0%)x (1–25%)xMyEIAModelresults =75%xMyEIAModelresults
SUPPLEMENTARY ECONOMIC DATA
TELEVISION PRODUCTION
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding. Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
Table D 3: Percentage distribution of Bad Wolf expenditures on television production, by type and region, 2015 - 2025
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
D 1: Welsh crew on Bad Wolf television projects, 2021-2025
A: Employment earnings (£ millions)
B: Share of total crew expenditures
Figure
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS. *FTEsestimatedonapro-ratabasisusingasinglemeanFTEcostof£35,436applicableacrossthetelevisionproductionindustry.
Table D 4: Economic impact of Bad Wolf expenditures on principal photography, 2015 - 2025
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
Table D 5: Economic impact of Bad Wolf
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
Table D 8: Total gross economic impact of Bad Wolf productions, Wales, 2015 -
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
Table D 9: Total gross economic impact of Bad Wolf productions, UK-Wide, 2015 - 2025
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.
Table D 10: Estimated tax revenue impact (UK-wide) of Bad Wolf productions, 2015 - 2025 (£)
Source:Saffery/NordicityestimatesbasedondatafromBadWolf,BFIandONS.
THE MYEIA MODEL TM
Indirectimpact
Indirect impacts were estimated using Nordicity’s MyEIA™ Model. This model utilises the 2019 input-output tables published by the Scottish Government, along with other economic data (e.g. median wages) to estimate how increasedpurchasesofgoodsandservicestranslateintoincrementalemployment,COEandGVA.
Constructionofinput-purchasesvector
Data collected through primary and secondary research was used to prepare a profile of input purchases. After removingexpendituresonsourcesofvalueadded(i.e.COE,mixedincome),theremainingexpendituresweremapped to a 98 x 1 vector (x) of industries (corresponding with the industries listed in the 2019 input-output tables published bytheScottishGovernment).
Estimationofindirectoutput
The 2019 Leontief inverse matrix (L) for the UK economy was derived from the 2019 input-output tables published by the Scottish Government. The following formula was then used to estimate a 1 x 98 vector (y) containing the changes inoutput,yi,ineachindustryasaresultoftheinputpurchasesarisingfromeachsector.
y=x’L
Where:
yisa1x98vectorofchangesinoutput(yi)
xis98x1vectorofinput-purchaseexpenditures(byreceivingindustry)
Listhe98x98Leontiefinversematrix
CalculationofindirectGVA
TheGVAratio(ai)wascalculatedforeachofthe98industrieslistedintheONSinput-outputtablesandL.Theseratios werecalculatedas:
a =GVAi/z i i
Where:
GVAiisthevalueofGVAgeneratedinindustryiasperthe2019input-outputtables ziisthetotalvalueofoutputinindustryiasperthe2019input-outputtables
ThetotalindirectGVAimpactacrossallindustries(g*)wascalculatedinthefollowingmanner:
g*=a’y
Where:
aisa98x1vectorofai
yisa98x1vectorofyi
CalculationofindirectCOE
TheCOEratio(bi)wascalculatedforeachofthe98industrieslistedintheONSinput-outputtables.Theseratioswere calculatedas:
b =COE /z
Where:
COEiisthevalueofCOEgeneratedinindustryiasperthe2019input-outputtables ziisthetotalvalueofoutputinindustryiasperthe2019input-outputtables
ThetotalindirectCOEimpactacrossallindustries(w*)wascalculatedinthefollowingmanner:
w*=b’y
Where:
bisa98x1vectorofbi yisa98x1vectorofyi
Estimationofindirectemployment
Thenumberofindirectjobs(measuredinFTEs)wasestimatedbydividingtheCOEimpactineachindustry(wi)bythe averageFTEcostineachindustry(mi).
q =w /m i i i
Where:
wiisthetotalwageimpactinindustryi miistheaverageFTEcostinindustryi
Totalindirectemployment(q*)wasarrivedatbysummingtheemploymentimpacts(qi)acrossthe64industries.
q*=∑qi
Inducedimpact
Nordicity’sMyEIA™Modelalsoprovidesestimatesofinducedimpacts.TheseestimatesarebasedontheLeontiefType IItablespublishedbytheScottishGovernmentfor2019.
Estimationofinducedoutput
ThevaluesofdirectandindirectoutputweresummedtoarriveatanestimateofTypeIoutput.
yTYPEI=yDIRECT+yINDIRECT
TheTypeIoutputwasthenmultipliedbytheTypeIIratiosimpliedbytheScottishGovernmentLeontiefTypeIItables.
y =TypeIImultiplier·(y ) TYPEII TYPEI
Forimpactsattheregionallevel,lowermultiplierswereused.
EstimationofinducedGVA
ThetotalvalueofinducedimpactGVAwasestimatedbymultiplyingtheeconomy-wideGVA-to-outputratio(asperthe 2019input-outputtables)bytheestimateofTypeIIoutput.
g =(a*)·(y ) INDUCED TYPEII
Where:
a*istheGVA-to-outputratioacrossallindustries(0.53)
EstimationofinducedCOE
ThetotalvalueofinducedimpactCOEwasestimatedbymultiplyingtheeconomy-wideCOE-to-outputratio(asper the2019input-outputtables)bytheestimateofTypeIIoutput.
w =(b*)·(y ) INDUCED TYPEII
Where:
b*istheCOE-to-outputratioacrossallindustries.
Estimationofinducedemployment
ThenumberofinducedimpactFTEs(qINDUCED)wasestimatedbydividingtheestimateofinducedCOE(wINDUCED) bytheaverageFTEcostacrosstheUKeconomy(m*).
q =w /m* INDUCED INDUCED
Where:
m*istheaverageFTEcostintheUKeconomyin2019.
Totaleconomicimpact
ThetotaleconomicimpactintermsofGVA,COEandemploymentwasarrivedatbysummingtheestimatesofthe direct,indirectandinducedimpacts.
Regionalandlocaleconomicimpacts
TheMyEIA™Modelcanalsobeusedtogenerateestimatesofdirect,indirectandinducedimpactsintermsof employment,COEandGVAforNUTS1,NUTS2andlocalauthoritieswithinEngland,ScotlandandWales.This regionalisationofthemodelisbasedonlocationquotients(LQs)publishedbyONS.
TheLQsareusedtoderiveregional-supplyratios(λ)foragivengeographicjurisdiction.Whereλ>1,itissetequalto1. Theseregional-supplyratiosareusedtoadjusttheinputpurchaseexpendituresvector(x)toapproximatetheportion ofinputpurchasesmetbysupplierslocatedwithinagivengeographicjurisdiction.
X =x •λ REGIONAL I I
Where:
xiinput-purchaseexpenditures(byreceivingindustryi)
λIisthesupplyratioforindustryi..
Theregional-supplyratiosarealsousedtocreatearegionalisedLeontiefinversematrix(LREGIONAL)inthefollowing manner:
L =(λ’A) REGIONAL
-1
Where:
λisa98x98diagonalmatrixofregional-supplyratios
Aisa98x98matrixofinput-outputcoefficients
TheregionalisedLeontiefinversematrixisthenusedtocalculatetheindirectoutputvector.
y =x’L REGIONAL REGIONAL
Where:
yREGIONALisa1x98vectorofchangesinoutput(yi)inagivengeographicjurisdiction
xis98x1vectorofinput-purchaseexpenditures(byreceivingindustry)
LREGIONAListhe98x98regionalisedLeontiefinversematrix
This report has been prepared for Bad Wolf solely for the purpose and on the terms agreed with Bad Wolf.
Saffery LLP accept no liability (including for negligence) to anyone else in connection with this document. This report contains information obtained or derived from a variety of sources as indicated within the report. Saffery LLP have not sought to establish the reliability of those sources or verified information. Accordingly, no representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by Saffery LLP to any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the report. Moreover, the report is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision and does not absolve any third party from concluding its own review in order to verify its contents.
