The weekly newspaper for air cargo professionals Volume: 21
AMBAK ELECTED CARGO IQ VICE CHAIRMAN
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PROFITS EXPECTED TO FALL IN 2018
Issue: 23
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11 June 2018
SAUDIA INAUGURATES KAIA COOL FACILITY
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DEMAND PROVES ROBUST FOR AA CARGO
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The future is freight A
CW special US correspondent Michael Manning met Bruce A Dickinson, VP and general manager for Boeing’s 747-8 programme. They sat down for a discussion on the 747-8F and Manning heard how the future for the iconic aircraft is freight. There is no question that the B747 as an aircraft model is entering its endgame. Much background noise in the aviation and general media is writing off the behemoth in an age of fuel-efficient, twin-engine long distance rivals. Dickerson, though, is not in the mood to consign the B747 to the scrap heap of history. He is adamant that the aircraft has a role in flying significant tonnages of cargo long after the model makes its last push back from the departure gate. Manning asked him directly: “Help us set the record straight once and for all. What is the way forward for marketing and selling the 747-8?” Dickinson’s response was that the B747-8’s potential longevity really lies in the future market for freighter aircraft. “When you look at our current market outlook over a 20 year period, there is a published market, not just Boeing, but outside sources – who build these large freighters over that 20 year period, and now they want a large freighter,” he says. “The only production freighters in that category is the 747-8 and the Boeing 777. When the large freighter retirements kick in, and when you consider MD-11s and the older 747-400 freighters, there’s a lot of airplanes that’ll be coming out over the 2019 to 2029 time period. This means a lot of replacements for those aircrafts – MD-11s first, and then of course, 747-400 freighters. Since the 747-400 freighter was built after the 747-400 passenger plane, that’s why those airplanes are still flying strong. But they can’t fly forever.” Dickinson Manning says: “Let’s recap for our readers. Boeing’s most current published forecast for World Freighter Demand is 2,370 with Large Production Boeing 747s and 777s (80 tonnes) at 550. With Wide-Body Conversions, the forecast is 400
Boeing 767s, 747s, and 777s (40-120 tonnes). The Medium Wide-Body Production forecast is 380 Boeing 767s (40-80 tones). Standard Body Conversions of 1,040 Boeing 737s and 757s (45 tonnes) is forecast.” As of 2015, Boeing notes the current number of freighters in service at 1,770, with a projected number of freighters in service to be at 3,010 (as of 2035). Airbus, by contrast, sees a market for 1,551 of their aircraft Dickinson says: “Well, Airbus doesn’t build a large freighter. I think you’re talking about their large aircraft category that’s a passenger airplane. We’re absolutely planning to have a passenger airplane on for Boeing. We have a number of campaigns out there. The reason I brought up freighters first is that we do believe the freighters will dominate the 747-8 delivery profile, into the next decade.” Manning: “What are the market forces you’ve studied that have caused cargo airlines to delay upgrading their 747-400 fleets?” In reply, Dickinson says: “Low fuel prices have generally been a factor, and airlines retaining older aircraft, be it 747-400 freighters or MD-11 freighters – this airplane has a better than 16-per cent fuel burn improvement efficiency. That’s a huge number over the 747-400. Certainly, with the age of the 747-400 freighter fleet, many of them have not gone to the significant D Check intervals where it gets very costly for long-term maintenance.” Experts have predicted that India will need over 1,600 new passenger and freighter aircraft between 2015 and 2034 to help meet the growing demand. Manning asks: “What is your perspective on the role Boeing can offer with the 747-8?” Dickinson says: “India is a clear growth area. We’ve watched that very closely for both passenger opportunities and freighter opportunities. So, all I can really say is what you’re already aware of, which is that it’s a significant, growing
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