Perspectives & Projections 2019 Experts tell full house that Arizona is ‘one of the best markets in multifamily industry’ By Peter Madrid
Positive job growth. Hundreds of new residents moving into the state each day. Sound fundamentals. Pent up demand for rental housing. Based on those facts, the projection for Arizona’s apartment industry in 2020 is that it’s likely to experience a banner year, experts predicted at the 2019 AMA Perspectives & Projections industry outlook conference in September at the Hyatt Regency Phoenix. A packed room of industry leaders listened to experts from several Mike Clow, Executive Director Real Estate Services for Greystar Real Estate Partners and the 2019 National Apartment Association Chair discusses the national apartment industry outlook.
disciplines including research, data, finance, technology and the national outlook. “You are in one of the best markets in the multifamily industry,” said
Sullivan’s predictions:
opening speaker Tim Sullivan, Senior Managing Principal with Meyers Research. “While the economy is growing, it’s doing so slowly.
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Demographics support his prediction. While Millennials comprise a great number of those living in apartment communities, they
Where does housing fall into this?
don’t want to stay renters forever;
“What worries me so much is the perception of what’s happening. Fundamentally, what’s going on is sound. But consumers hear the ‘R’ (recession) word, get frightened, and keep money in their pockets. Arizona is in a very positive place,” Sullivan said. He added that tariffs are likely to have an impact in 2020. Sullivan
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The demand for apartments will continue to be very strong;
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The economy will continue to grow if we remove uncertainty;
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The 2020 election is a wild-card no one knows about.
“You guys are in a great place,” Sullivan reiterated.
said we could be heading into “if not a recession, a slow down.”
State of the national multihousing industry
“Uncertainty gives people pause,” he said. “There is a little less
Mike Clow, Executive Director of Real Estate Services for Greystar
elasticity.”
Real Estate Partners and the 2019 National Apartment Association
His benchmark:
Chair, listed story lines that have affected the national apartment
“Look at RV sales. That will tell you how the market is doing. If they’re
industry in 2019: moderate growth and solid fundamentals.
slow, it’s kind of a precursor to a recession. Things generally have
Nationally, the pipeline remains robust, Clow said. Year over year
slowed.”
rent growth is at about 3.3 percent. Rent growth in Phoenix “topped the charts” at 6 percent.
A positive benchmark – in-migration: “That’s why I love this market,” he said. “You are fortunate to have
“The U.S. Census shows that Arizona is one of the top 5 fastest growing
in-migration. You’re getting people moving in making $60,000 to start
states,” he said. “Older renters are now driving apartment renters.
and not ready to buy a home right away. They want to live in a cool
Looking ahead, to meet demand, nationally we will need to be at
apartment. This is a hot bed for single-family rental.”
4.6 million new units between now and 2030.” —continued on page 6
Apartment News | November/December 2019
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