Financial Mirror - 29 Aug 2012

Page 1

August 29 - September 4, 2012

2 | NEWS

European shares fall on growth, debt concerns l

Nervousness ahead of Jackson Hole, ECB also weighs on markets

European shares had their worst one-day fall in five sessions on Tuesday as concerns over the global economy and euro zone debt crisis, highlighted by bleak figures from Spain, weighed on equity markets. The FTSEurofirst 300 index closed down 0.7% at 1,088.62 points, marking its worst one-day fall since a 1.2% decline on August 21. The Euro STOXX 50 index fell 0.8% to 2,442.12 points. Traders cited some concerns that a global gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday may fail to convince investors that new stimulus measures are imminent. “I think there’s a lot of nervousness ahead of Jackson Hole,” said AFS Brokers equity analyst Christopher Ho. Spain’s IBEX stock market slipped 0.9% after data showed the country falling deeper into recession and the economically important region of Catalonia said it needed a major rescue from Madrid. Worries that Spain will be increasingly impacted by the euro zone crisis, which has already led to sovereign bailouts of Greece and other smaller states, have led to new expectations of intervention from the European Central Bank (ECB).

The FTSEurofirst remains up by around 7% since ECB head Mario Draghi pledged on July 26 to do “whatever it takes” to protect the euro currency in the face of the region’s economic crisis. This led to expectations that the ECB may resume its government bond-buying programme in September. However, opposition from Germany’s Bundesbank to ECB government bond purchases, which it says would contravene European law by amounting to monetary financing of governments, has unnerved investors. Michel Juvet, a partner at Swiss bank Bordier, said he was considering reducing some of his European equity exposure, or selling futures contracts on European equity indices, in case stock markets lost ground in September if the ECB does not turn its pledges into concrete action. “I’m not expecting something bad from the ECB meeting. But, on the negative side, the markets have anticipated a lot and September is normally bad for markets. We have the possibility of a sell-off,” said Juvet. TRADING VOLUMES LOW The stock market rally over the course of August has taken

place on the back of below-average trading volumes, indicating a lack of conviction in the rally, and volumes were below average again on Tuesday. Trading volumes on the Euro STOXX 50 came in at around 50% of their average 90-day volumes, with a similar picture shown for Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 stock markets. The STOXX European technology index was Europe’s worst-performing equity sector, falling 2.1%. Telecoms group Nokia fell 7.8% after rising 7.7% on Monday, on signs it may not be able to immediately benefit from a move by Apple to ban sales of rival Samsung phones. Dutch chip equipment maker ASML also fell 3.5% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to a “sell”. Although some traders have used the stock market rise in August to book profits by selling shares bought on the cheap in June and July, others said prospects of more central bank quantitative easing (QE) meant any market declines could be a good time to buy. “We think that QE has become much more likely now. We’re minded to buy on the dips,” said Darren Easton, director of trading at London-based Logic Investments.

Hollande popularity slides as economy wanes l

Surging unemployment, flat growth ends election honeymoon

France’s Socialist President Francois Hollande raised expectations he would revive the economy and stem soaring unemployment during his election campaign, but tumbling opinion poll scores show the public is losing patience. Hollande’s approval rating has slid to 44% in one poll from above 60% in May when he took over from the unpopular Nicolas Sarkozy. A second survey shows 72% of voters feel he is acting too slowly to resolve their problems. The drop in popularity, as the French return from summer holidays, leaves Hollande vulnerable to public anger as he prepares a 2013 budget that must save 30 bln euros to meet deficit goals and asks parliament to ratify a European fiscal pact which eurosceptics fear will expose France to more Brussels-imposed austerity. “Hollande set the bar high by saying he would have original ideas. People are disappointed. They feel he doesn’t have the solutions he made out he had,” said Jerome SainteMarie at pollster CSA, whose latest survey found just 49% of French have faith in Hollande, down 5 points from late July. A poll by Ipsos, released on Monday, put Hollande’s approval rating at 44%, down from 55% in July, and found 47% of those surveyed gave him a thumbs down. Hollande’s honeymoon has ended much faster than that of his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, whose ratings only dipped below the 50% mark eight months into his 2007-12 term as his personality grated. The rapid fall from grace is prompting political opponents to attack Hollande’s low-key leadership style, which contrasts with the frenetic and all-controlling Sarkozy, and ask whether he has it in him to whip the economy back into shape. Conservative lawmaker and mayor of Nice Christian Estrosi sniffed recently that even if Sarkozy was mocked for being a

“hyper-president”, having a “hypo-president” who suffered from inertia was hardly better. SWEETENERS Hollande’s sinking popularity has more to do with the stark economic outlook and a sense he will stick with the previous government’s centrist policies than criticism of his style. Yet his reluctance to shake things up is weighing too, and hard-left voters resent that protectionist rhetoric during Hollande’s campaign is not being translated into action. “The main cause is the rise in unemployment and the talk of more layoffs to come. People hoped for a change, maybe a kind of protectionism but they see classic economic policies and a worsening in the economy and employment,” SainteMarie said. Hollande has taken power as economic growth has slowed to a near standstill and jobless claims have surged for 15 straight months to hit a more than 13-year high in July above 10%. Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault admitted on Monday the government will likely have to cut its 2013 growth target of 1.2%, which economists feel should be halved. Labour Minister Michel Sapin said on Tuesday that unemployment is set to get worse. Anxious to keep the nation behind him as he readies a slimline budget for late September, Hollande has set Ayrault into action announcing sweeteners like fuel price cuts and higher ceilings on tax-free saving accounts. The fuel price change will shave up to 6 cents off the price of a litre over three months, the government said as it detailed the measure on Tuesday. Last week Ayrault, whose ratings also have dropped below 50%, said a law was being readied to double the amount of

money people can squirrel away in tax-free, state-guaranteed savings accounts. So far, the measures have not dampened critical mutterings about Hollande’s debut, even on the left, the strongest being radical leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon’s claim that the president’s first 100 days in office had been a waste of time. “As France flirts with recession and we approach the dangerous level of 3 mln out of work, Hollande and the Socialists seem incapable of taking bold decisions,” Conservative lawmaker Franck Riester said on Monday. The daily Le Monde’s front page cartoon meanwhile depicted a perspiring Hollande by a flip-chart graph showing economic growth tanking. “Facts are stubborn things, as Lenin said,” he remarks to Ayrault, as his predecessor jogs by in the background, and adds: “Sarkozy used to say that too!”

Greece plans “special economic zones” to boost growth l

To offer investors less tax, bureaucracy; no plan to soften labour laws

Greece plans to set up “special economic zones” to attract private investment and help lift its debtladen economy out of depression, the government said on Tuesday. The zones would offer investors tax and administrative advantages. Athens is already in talks with the European Commission to get approval for the move, Development Minister Costis Hatzidakis told a news conference. “We believe these zones will boost the real economy by creating a special regime to attract investment and generate exports,” Hatzidakis said. The announcement comes as Greece is struggling to breathe life into its ailing economy, now in

its fifth consecutive year of recession. Special economic zones have been used by developing economies, notably China, to spur growth. Structural reforms such as wage cuts and liberalisation of closed-shop professions loom large in an EU/IMF bailout plan to save the country from a chaotic bankruptcy and possible exit from the euro. But Athens has criticized the plan for being too long on austerity and too short on economic recovery measures. Greece’s economy is expected to have shrunk by about a fifth over the 2008-2012 period, partly due to austerity policies imposed on the country to

reduce its debt and deficit. Hatzidakis urged the country’s EU partners to accept Greece’s plan to establish these zones. “There are already objections outside Greece because it (the zones) would give the country a comparative advantage,” he said. The zones, however, would not allow investors to pay workers especially low salaries, said Hatzidakis, who is the cabinet minister in charge of economic growth policy. “Current labour law will be fully respected,” he said. Greece has already slashed minimum wages to encourage the creation of new jobs. Unemployment, however, still hovers at record levels, hitting 23.1% in May.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Q2 revenue collapse puts budget off target Revenue and expenditure figures for the second quarter explain why the government had to admit this week that it will not meet its budget deficit target this year. Total revenue in the second quarter fell by 9.7% over the year earlier to EUR 1,500.9 mln (EUR 1.5 bln) while total expenditure dropped by 3.4% to EUR 1,910.3 mln. The deficit therefore grew to EUR 409.4 mln in the second quarter compared with EUR 315.8 mln deficit in the second quarter of 2011. In the first quarter, the budget deficit had been cut in half. VAT receipts fell by 3.6% in the second quarter to EUR 359.6 mln, despite a 2 percentage point increase in the VAT rate from 15% to 17% imposed from March 1.

Total taxes on production and imports, including VAT, dropped by 7.3% to EUR 620.7 mln. Revenue from sales of goods and services increased by 5.3% to EUR 110.1 mln. In the first six months of the year revenue rose by just 1.26% and expenditure fell by only 1.37%. The original target was for a budget deficit of 2.5% of GDP in 2012, from more than 6% of GDP in 2011. However, the government said that without additional measures it could reach 4.5% of GDP in 2012. Cyprus applied to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the EU support mechanism, at the end of June. So far no agreement has been reached. The government has

implemented virtually no austerity measures since late 2011. UNEMPLOYMENT COST SOARS Figures on the expenditure side show the cost of unemployment, which has risen very fast in the past two years. Social transfers, which are now the biggest category of expenditure, rose by 4.8% to EUR 698.8 mln. Despite the freeze in wage indexation for the public sector, other increments that are still in place meant that compensation of employees rose by 2% to EUR 669.0 mln. The government massively scaled back capital investment, with a year on year drop of 33.2% to EUR 103.0 mln in the second quarter, while current transfers fell by 23.7% to EUR 112.3 mln.

BOCY to report more H1 losses l

Xenophontos tipped as chairman

Bank of Cyprus is expected to announce 114 mln euros in losses for the first half on Thursday, pushing it closer to a deal, probably with Alpha Bank, to swap its loan book in Greece with Alpha’s loans in Cyprus. A newspaper report last week said Alpha Bank’s impaired loans in Cyprus were smaller than the Bank of Cyprus’s nonperforming credit in Greece and that the difference would be made up in some form including shares. Changes are also expected at the Bank of Cyprus board level with former KEVE president Manthos Mavrommatis resigning and the bank’s chairman Theodoros Aristodemou also expected to step down on health grounds. However, the bank needs to untangle itself from reports of

inadequacies in the due diligence report conducted for the takeover of Uniastrum Bank in Russia, while the pressure remains for the removal of high-ranking officials, supposedly for rejecting favourable loan deals to pro-administration corporations and associations. Following the departure of former CEO Andreas Eliades, some reports have been critical of his compensation package, while others have suggested he took out large loans at favourable rates. In any case, veteran banker and board member Evdokimos Xenophontos is widely tipped to step in as chairman of the bank, as he also enjoys the support of major shareholder Dmitry Rybolovlev.

UCy to hosts int’l conference on innovation Academic research at the University of Cyprus is flourishing amid difficult economic, political and social times, the Rector of the university, Constantinos Christofides said in announcing the forthcoming international conference on innovation and entrepreneurship, titled “East meets West” Christofides said “during difficult times advanced nations and modern leadership must invest in the young people of tomorrow”, adding that the university will soon open 100 positions of short duration for young researchers in the new academic year. Gregoris Makrides, chairman of the organising committee of the conference and Director of the university’s Research and International Relations, said that “East meets West” is being organised on September 1-4 by the European Office of Cyprus, under the auspices of the Cyprus Presidency of the Council of the EU and will be hosted at the University of Cyprus campus. The aim of the conference is to create a “dynamic forum” that will promote increased cooperation between researchers and the business community, turning research results into commercial products and services, Makrides said. He added that the conference includes round table discussions, sessions with international speakers on issues

Foreign speakers double in public schools Foreign speakers in public elementary schools have nearly doubled in the past five years to a rate of one in seven. According to data from the teachers’ union POED, that number has increased from 3,951 in the school year 200607 to 6,047 in 2010-11.

relating to innovation and entrepreneurship, along with an exhibition of innovative products. Some 435 participants from 30 countries, including the U.S. and China, will meet here to bring closer together the East and the West. On the sidelines of the conference, the Cyprus Research Promotion Foundation is organising a “brokerage event” to bring together companies and organisations with innovative ideas. Through such meetings, participants will have the chance to either present or get information on innovative technologies, tools and services, to develop research collaborations and search for financing opportunities. Makrides also referred to the European project “Inenter”, which aims to improve the placements and internships from academia to enterprises. He noted that the 24-month project, which ends this September, puts emphasis on the quality of student placements in industry and businesses, aiming to create mechanisms that promote innovation. UCy Vice Rector Athanasios Gagatsis referred to the 7th Mediterranean Conference on Mathematics Education, which will be part of the “East meets West” conference. The conference will include three keynote speakers and over 40 contributions.

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Popular board studies restructuring plan The new restructuring plan for the Cyprus Popular Bank, prepared by consultants KPMG, was presented to the board on Tuesday that studied the report during a five-hour meeting. The plan was part of the bank’s 1.79 bln euro bailout by the state that has effectively nationalised the island’s second largest lender and replaced its chairman and board. The plan provides for a 10% reduction in staff costs in 2012 and 8% in 2013, scaled salary cuts amounting to 12.5% after consultation with trade unions, and 7% reduction in operating expenses.

Alvarez & Marsal to review banks’ bailout needs The Central Bank of Cyprus said on Friday it had appointed professional services firm Alvarez & Marsal to investigate why the two largest banks had to seek state support. The probe is expected to “provide clarity and comprehension regarding the current financial stress” and guide remediation to strengthen the stability of the banking sector, the Central Bank said in a news release. Cypriot bank capital shortfalls from over exposure to Greece and their reliance on the government for aid forced Cyprus into seeking a financial bailout from its EU partners in June. The island has been unable to access financial markets itself because of high yields on its traded debt persisting for more than a year. Cyprus’s Popular Bank required state aid to fill a 1.8 bln euro shortfall in regulatory capital, and the Bank of Cyprus sought 500 mln euros in support when its own recapitalisation efforts fell through. Both banks posted considerable losses on Greece’s debt restructure earlier this year, agreed by European Union leaders to make that country’s debt more sustainable.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Construction prices ease in July Construction prices eased in July, as the price index of construction materials fell by 0.16% over the previous month. Prices are still up in the year to date, however, despite a steep recession in the sector. In January - July 2012 construction prices rose by 1.09% compared with the same period last year. Construction materials prices are affected by global prices of commodities such as oil and steel.

Outbound tourism drops 3.2% in July Cypriots appear to have tightened their belts this summer according to figures on outbound tourism. The Passengers’ Survey showed that 131,096 residents of Cyprus returned from a trip abroad in July 2012 compared with 135,397 in the corresponding month last year recording, thus recording a decrease of 3.2%. Trips to the United Kingdom dropped by 1.9% in this period to 29,852 in July 2012 compared with 30,441 in July 2011.

Tourism revenue leaps 15.7% y/y in June Revenue from tourism rose by 15.7% over the year earlier to reach EUR 254.5 mln in June 2012, compared with EUR 220.0 mln in June 2011. This means that spending in June grew faster than numbers, as tourism arrivals in the same month rose by 9.7% to 329,977.

Industrial turnover down 3.5% in May Industrial turnover dropped by 3.5% in May compared with the same month of 2011. The manufacturing subindex fell even further by 7.1% in the same period. In the first five months of the year, the industrial turnover index fell by 3.0% compared with the same period of the previous year.

Motor regs down 25.6% in Jan-July Registrations of motor vehicles fell by 25.6% in the first seven months of the year to 16,995, compared with 22,838 in January – July 2011. Registrations of private saloon cars fell by 22.1% to 12,522 from 16,082 in January - July 2011. Meanwhile, in January-March 2012 national road transport decreased by 20.9% and international road transport fell by 35.2% compared with the corresponding period of 2011 according to the latest figures from the Statistical Service.

Petroleum sales slide 7.7% in Jan-Jul Sales of petroleum products slid by 7.7% compared with the same period of the previous year in January-July, in line with contracting overall economic activity. In July alone sales rose by 9.3% compared with the previous month, presumably as a result of seasonal demand for oil- and diesel-fired electricity as well as aircraft fuel. The Statistical Service noted a notable increase Aviation Kerosene, Gasoil for Marine Use, Heavy Fuel Oil (used to power electricity), Unleaded Motor Gasoline, Liquefied Petroleum Gases, Gasoil Low Sulphur and Asphalt. There was a drop in sales of Light Fuel Oil compared with the previous month. Total stocks of petroleum products fell by 7.8% compared to the previous month.

Triple 5 has cold feet over CAIR deal Triple 5, the Canadian investment giant whose promises to the Cypriot government have yet to materialise, is now having cold feet over its supposed investment in troubled national carrier, Cyprus Airways. Two consultancies have reportedly told Triple 5 that the CAIR deal would not be profitable and that even with cutbacks it would not even be competitive. The airline recently secured a 15 mln euro loan with parliamentary approval, subject to implementing a radical restructuring plan. Triple 5 has submitted a plan to Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly that includes laying off 270 staff, maintaining a ‘closed skies’ policy in order to allow CAIR to continue to operate in a monopolistic environment and increasing its fleet from nine to 21 with new leases in 2013 and a further 15 leases in 2014.

Sylikiotis outlines natgas plans in Norway Trade Minister Neoclis Sylikiotis has outlined Cyprus’ major natural gas infrastructure plans during an energy summit organised by the Offshore Northern Seas Foundation (ONS) in Norway. Speaking during a round table discussion on energy prospects in the Eastern Mediterranean, Sylikiotis said the government has decided to set up a natural gas liquefaction terminal for export purposes. He said that Cyprus would like to use the Norwegian experience and will set up a national hydrocarbon company and that the government has commissioned MIT experts to draft a report on investing income from oil and gas exploitation. Sylikiotis also referred to the Cypriot EU Presidency’s

initiative in collaboration with the European Commission to host a ministerial conference in Nicosia with the participation of EU energy ministers and their counterparts from the Middle East with a view to discussing issues relating to the security of offshore activities as well as the EU energy security through the creation of the southeastern Mediterranean natural gas corridor. Following the successful discovery of significant natural gas deposits by Noble Energy in Block 12 of the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone, the government launched a second licensing round for the remaining 12 offshore blocks in May where 15 companies and joint ventures submitted their bids which are currently being evaluated by the government.

UCLan Cyprus to start in October The University of Central Lancashire Cyprus has been granted a provisional academic license by the Ministry of Education and Culture for the establishment of the first British university on the island. It will commence operations in October at a new, 53 mln euro campus in Larnaca’s Pyla area. UCLan has a focus on applied research and on providing practical solutions for businesses, large and small, and, according to an announcement, “will be committed to fostering employability and entrepreneurship and making a significant contribution to the economic, social and cultural benefit of Cyprus and beyond.” UK students with 200 or more A2 points can study at UCLan Cyprus in one of two ways: register at UCLan in the UK on a 4 year degree route, studying the first year at UCLan

Cyprus and returning to Preston for the subsequent three years, or, register directly at UCLan Cyprus, but pay their fees directly to UClan Cyprus. For UK-based students, in addition to tuition, they will also receive student accommodation complete with swimming pool access, health insurance and a return flight to Britain for GBP 9,000 (EUR 11,300) a year. The degree programmes are joint UCLan UK and UCLan Cyprus awards and as such, the same modules for each course are delivered in both the UK and Cyprus. This means that students will receive the same education at each university, should they transfer. UCLan Cyprus will be ready to receive around 500 students on October 2.

Industry spent €62 mln on environment Industry spent EUR 62.1 mln on environmental protection in 2010 according to the Statistical Service. This amount is equivalent to 0.36% of GDP and is not far off the EU average of 0.43%. Ironically less was spent in recovery year of 2010 than in the recessionary year of 2009. In 2009 the amount spent by industry on environmental protection was EUR 67.8 mln. The highest expenditure was by manufacturing, with expenditure of EUR 57.7 mln; mining and quarrying spent EUR 2.9 mln and electricity and water supply spent EUR 1.5 mln.

In the manufacturing sector, non-metallic mineral products accounted for EUR 34.0 mln, food products for EUR 11.8 mln, beverages for EUR 2.9 mln and wood and wood products for EUR 2.4 mln. The Statistical Service said that expenditure mainly related to the monitoring, treatment and disposal of waste (EUR 13.5 mln), the treatment of waste water (EUR 8.8 mln), the reduction of air emissions (EUR 6.6 mln), the abatement of noise and vibrations (EUR 1.1 mln). Other expenditure, such as the protection of soil and ground water and the protection of natural resources and biodiversity, amounted to EUR 32.1 mln.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Russian “fishing” could hurt Cyprus reputation l Will the Attorney General betray confidentiality? Russian investors and local business service providers are growing increasingly worried that Cyprus’ eagerness to satisfy the Kremlin’s demands for lifting of confidentiality in exchange for a multi-billion euro bailout could jeopardise the island’s reputation as a leading financial services centre. Recent developments involving Russian-interest companies in Cyprus and the authorities’ willingness to hand over confidential information about shareholders, directors and their assets to the government in Moscow suggest that the current administration’s relations with the Kremlin are much closer than anticipated. These relations obviously go beyond the 2.5 bln euros Russia loaned to Cyprus on favourable terms earlier this year and another 5 bln euros it hopes to get soon after being shut out of international financial markets for more than a year in part because of fiscal slippage. The biggest concern is that the authorities in Russia, that had until last year stubbornly refused to remove Cyprus from its black list of tax jurisdictions, could deploy “fishing expeditions” to track down information about critics of Vladimir Putin’s regime, allegedly on the grounds of national security. One such case is the lawsuit filed in Limassol by George Philippides, a director of the services and management company Oneworld, against Mikhail Kuzovlev, the president of the Bank of Moscow that used to be headed by Yuri Luzhkov, the former mayor of Moscow who was removed from office by Putin and replaced in the bank by its board in a “politically

motivated persecution”. Kuzovlev alleged mismanagement at the bank and implicated Cyprus investors, a fact which was proven wrong as Oneworld said in a statement that “the Cyprus companies have transferred to Bank of Moscow all the assets which they have acquired through their loans, thus repaying all their debt obligations to the bank.” Another case took place in 2003 when tremendous pressure was brought upon the Cyprus government by the Russian authorities to disclose confidential information relating to the Yukos-Khodorskovsky case for alleged tax evasion and money laundering. At the time, the Cyprus government as well as the Central Bank refused to give in to the Kremlin’s pressures citing perfectly legitimate reasons. This stance won Cyprus much respect and proved a significant catalyst in the increase of international business to date. However, this policy seems to have changes, according to John Mavrokordatos, a Nicosia-based chartered accountant. “Already, requests for confidential and personal information from the Russian authorities are granted by the Cypriot authorities and enforced by the Cyprus anti-money laundering unit [MOKAS] without a problem and recourse to Cypriot law, especially the one relating to confidentiality and non-disclosure as enshrined in the Cyprus constitution,” Mavrokordatos said. “There is no doubt that once this government policy becomes known amongst Russian (and non-Russian) clients, the services sector will experience a huge flight of clients, together with their capital to more secure jurisdictions. This

will be a devastating blow and cause irreparable damage to this vital sector and the economy at large, creating huge liquidity problems for the local banks,” he added. “Cyprus’s international credibility is being gravely undermined and will be totally destroyed under the present government.” At stake, according to Mavrokordatos, are the billions of euros collected from VAT, income and defence taxes that have bolstered state finances over this period, as well as the large cash deposits placed in the Cyprus banks by these international companies (estimated at over 30 bln euros) which have provided local banks with much needed liquidity and shielded them from the financial crisis experienced over the past five years. The Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Cyprus (ICPAC), representing 3,000 accountants and auditors, discussed the issue at its board meeting this week and is expected to draft a policy which it will discuss with members. “There is now doubt that we support the fundamentals of Cyprus law and respect and cooperate with all state officials on all matters related to the Attorney General’s investigations into companies and individuals, investigations by MOKAS into money laundering and any other illicit business practices,” said a senior ICPAC member. “However, we cannot tolerate this ‘fishing expedition’ that will jeopardise all that we have worked for and the good reputation Cyprus has built up over the years,” he added.

“Galley slave” Putin savours yachts, planes, palaces, critics say l New trappings of office give Putin reason to keep power Vladimir Putin once compared ruling Russia to being a “galley slave”, but four yachts that come with the job, not to mention palaces, aircraft and a wealth of luxury perks help explain his refusal to quit the presidency. Listing 58 planes and helicopters and 20 homes with opulent fittings worthy of the tsars, not to mention 11 watches which alone are worth several times Putin’s annual salary, a report published under the ironic title “The Life of a Galley Slave” by opposition leader Boris Nemtsov denounced a “blatant and cynical challenge” to millions of Russians barely managing to survive. The Kremlin, which has long portrayed the 59-year-old president as a man of simple tastes and a liking for popular sports and active outdoor pastimes, did not immediately comment. Putin, who declares a personal income barely a quarter of that of his U.S. counterpart, has long denied rumours that he has built up a vast personal fortune. The report did not address that but it illustrated in 32 pages how the former KGB agent has expanded the trappings of the office of president since he rose to power in 2000; it is intended to foster faint stirrings of opposition to his recent re-election for a further six years. “One of the most serious reasons prompting V. Putin to hold on to power is the atmosphere of wealth and luxury to which he has become accustomed,” wrote Nemtsov and coauthor Leonid Martynyuk. “In a country where more than 20 mln people barely make ends meet, the luxurious life of the president is a blatant and cynical challenge to society. “We absolutely cannot put up with this.” Among eye-catching details, the authors highlighted a $75,000 toilet on a presidential jet. They also identified from photographs a total of 11 luxury timepieces on the wrist of the head of state and calculate their total value at some $700,000; Putin has declared an annual income of about $115,000. YACHTS FOR “GALLEY SLAVE” Tales of extravagance in the leadership, though familiar to Russians throughout their history from tsars to commissars, come at an awkward time for Putin as he has faced the biggest protests of his 12-year rule, mostly from middle-class urban liberals who are now trying to fire up indignation more widely. The text was accompanied by photographs of luxurious

homes, jets, helicopters, cars and watches, complete with footnotes citing Russian media as sources for many of the items. Nine new residences had been added to the list available to the president since Putin first became head of state in 2000, it said. As well as 15 helicopters, the 43 other aircraft available to Putin include an Airbus, two Dassault Falcon executive jets and an Ilyushin Il-96 airliner that features an $18-mln cabin fitted out by jewellers - and that toilet which, the report says, cost close to $75,000. For a man who, in 2008, described his workload in office as being like that of a galley slave, the Kremlin fleet of luxury yachts may draw more comparison to the lifestyles of Russia’s high-profile business tycoons, the “oligarchs”. One 53.7-metre yacht with a designer interior, a spa pool, waterfall and wine cellar is relegated to second best. “The real diamond of the Kremlin flotilla,” the report says, is a five-decked yacht with a jacuzzi, barbecue, a maple wood colonnade and a huge bathroom faced in marble. A 930-hectare (2,300-acre) residence on Lake Valdai in northwestern Russia has a cinema, a bowling alley and a “presidential church”, the report said. It said a little-known three-storey residence near Saratov, on the Volga river southeast of Moscow, has German chandeliers and Italian furniture, and features a billiard room, a winter garden, a pool and sauna. HUMBLE SERVANT? While not addressing Putin’s personal wealth directly - the president once dismissed talk of him being a billionaire as snot picked from noses of Western reporters and smeared on paper - it squarely challenges the image he offers of himself as a modest servant of the state, and paints him rather as a callous, Nerolike figure, ignoring Russia’s persistent problems. “Russia is continuing to die out ... the country has lost more than five million people, an African level of corruption has fettered the business activity and daily life of the country, and Russia’s dependence on natural resources has only deepened during the years of Putin’s rule,” the report said. Putin often refers to himself in public as “your humble servant”. In a declaration filed this year, the report said, Putin reported an income of 3.6 mln roubles ($113,000)and listed

three old domestic cars and a trailer hitch handed down by his father as the vehicles he owns. The report juxtaposes that with a description of some of the 700 automobiles at the disposal of the presidential administration, including an armoured Mercedes limousine Putin can use to commute to the Kremlin from his country estate. In addition to that suburban Moscow residence, NovoOgaryovo, and Bocharov Ruchei, his summer base in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Putin also has the run of two palaces by the Baltic, villas on the Volga and a ski lodge in a nature reserve in the Caucasus mountains, the report says. Among the watches, a potent symbol of personal wealth among Russians since the collapse of communism, the report listed five made by Blancpain of Switzerland and one made by the German firm A. Lange & Soehne as among the most valuable in the collection. Nemtsov and Martynyuk suggested money used on the upkeep of the residences and other presidential assets would be better spent for the public good. Putin’s spokesman and other Kremlin officials could not immediately be reached for comment on the report. Nemtsov, a deputy prime minister in the 1990s, has become one of Putin’s fiercest critics and was among the leaders of a series of protests over the past winter. The protests began over allegations of fraud in parliamentary election won by Putin’s ruling party last December and followed concern about his plan, announced last September, to return to the presidency after four years as prime minister. Putin has not ruled out running for re-election in 2018, but a poll by the independent Levada Centre this month found that a majority of Russians would prefer someone else replace him.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Meanwhile, in Turkey… EDITORIAL Turkey is once again in the public light, only this time it is not for its involvement in the Syrian crisis, nor for its “conflict” with Israel, while it only has four more months to bare the Cyprus EU presidency after which it can resume its romance with European leaders. As a developed economy, and one that investment fund managers seem to adore, the government is making all the right moves to build up and improve its image in all areas – from politics to culture, tourism and now, sports. Having secured a place in the Formula One circuit and later in the world rally championship, Turkey is now investing in golf as it will host a new matchplay event in October featuring Tiger Woods and other top players, which is to be


Try to see the big picture first The best strategic thinkers have the knack of considering the potential impact of their actions far beyond their own team or unit, and you can do it too, according to the Harvard Business Review’s “The Harvard ManageMentor Online Module: Strategic Thinking” ( Successful strategic thinkers always have perspective. They consider the potential impact of their actions on those beyond their team or unit. Next time you need to make a big decision, here are three ways to make sure your thinking isn’t too narrow: 1. Explore the outcomes. With every idea, ask yourself, “If we implement this idea, how will other units and stakeholders be affected? What might be the long-term ramifications?” 2. Expand your range of alternatives. Gather ideas and concerns from everyone who has an interest in the decision or who will be affected by the outcome. 3. Consider the customer. Look at the decision through your customers’ eyes. What will they think and which alternative will they prefer? If you’re not sure, think about asking them.

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played in Antalya, where the country’s first prospective European Tour Event, the Turkish Open could take place in 2013. Former Ryder Cup Captain Colin ‘Monty’ Montgomerie was invited to discuss the country’s golf development with business leaders and politicians, while with golf returning to the Olympics in the Rio 2016 Games, it is hoped that a committed approach to the sport’s development from grass roots through to elite level will also pay dividends in Istanbul’s bid to host the event in 2020. Turkey boasts an overwhelming majority share of junior golfers (52%), which stems from its national Golf Junior League initiative, prompting Monty to declare “this is a country the golfing world needs to watch closely.” In addition to growing domestic interest in the game, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism outlined in its

‘Tourism Strategy– 2023’ report that new golf courses should be developed throughout the country with the intention of attracting an increasing volume of golf tourists and that areas large enough to accommodate a minimum of four courses should be identified and nominated for golf development. Boasting 14 golf courses, Turkey’s Mediterranean coast has already established itself as an award-winning international golf tourism hotspot, hosting the International Golf Travel Market in 2011 and has ambitious plans for more golf resorts in the next two to five years. Add to this that more than 85% of course owners and operators in Turkey indicated that they have not been affected by the recent economic downturn and 90% said they have positive expectations for 2012. Meanwhile, in Cyprus…

The plight of buyers of Cyprus property: Is a solution in sight? On Wednesday, August 1, I submitted certain proposals to and almost non-existent rental incomes despite expectations. the Government of Cyprus through its Consulate in London for These people are faced with losing all the money they investthe resolution of the numerous disputes between property buy- ed and everything they own including their UK assets. The last ers on the one hand and Cypriot developers, banks, sales agents, thing they want is to spend more good money after bad in prolawyers and financial advisors on the other. tracted litigation. The fact is that neither do the banks, the propThe document entitled ‘A Plan for All erty developers and the Government of Reasons: How to resolve property pur- By GEORGE KOUNIS Cyprus and that is a good starting point chase disputes in Cyprus without litigafor talks. tion and restore the credibility of its pub- Consultant at Maxwell Alves, What is positive about the last two prolic, property and financial sectors’ con- solicitors in the City posals included in the document is that tains five proposals aimed at resolving the of London they do not require changes in legislation. current backlog, stopping the market from The Government is only expected to faciltaking another dive due to the planned repossessions and pre- itate and co-ordinate and this means that they are more likely to venting a future recurrence. happen. Three of these proposals are nothing new. They are about Government participation would help the proposals and add measures that should have been in place decades ago and to the Government’s credibility which, so far, appears helpless. nobody disagrees they are needed. They would protect the Although it would be good to have it, the last two proposals industry and the buyers and this is in the interests of everyone. can go ahead without Government participation. We are, thereThe only problem seems to be a lack of political will to get on fore, proceeding to contact developers, banks and other parties and do it. to get things going. The other two proposals aim to resolve the more recent phePeople who may be in a similar predicament can contact him by nomenon of property values losing up to 70% since 2008, high loan to value mortgages in strong currencies like Swiss Francs email or tel: +44 (0)20 7632 6950.

Businesses unaware of their online risk exposure Many global enterprises can do a lot more to protect their private data and reduce exposure to attacks by hackers, according to KPMG. Calling on companies to arm themselves better so they can withstand online threats, KPMG’s observation comes as the consultancy publishes its ‘Cyber Vulnerability Index’ – a first-of-its-kind report assessing how businesses are leaking data that exposes them to cyber attacks. As part of the research over a six month period, KPMG’s Cyber Response team simulated the initial steps would-be cyber attackers might undertake against the Forbes 2000 list of global companies. All the research was conducted using public domain data without breaching security. Among the key headlines coming from the CVI is the news that websites of 78% of businesses in the Forbes 2000 are leaking data, potentially creating opportunities for cyber attackers. In addition it was found that: -Technology and software sectors are most likely to disclose

information in metadata in posts to online forums and newsgroups; -16% of companies may be vulnerable to attack due to poor patching or the use of out-of-date server software on their websites. Based on the research it is clear that companies should do more to cleanse the amount of data they leak on the internet and should spring clean their public facing documents of metadata. “The world of cyber security has been tilted on its axis over the past two years: from the actions of hacktivists and associated groups through to state sponsored agencies with seemingly unlimited resources,” said Martin Jordan, Director of Information Protection at KPMG. “Our findings send out a clear message to business – while the internet may be your shop window to the world – it can also be a substantial security risk as well.”

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August 29 - September 4, 2012


Business feasibility studies in uncertain times By Rakis Christoforou BBA, CPA, CGMA A member of both the Association of Certifeid Fraud Examiners (ACFE) and the American Association of Certified Public Accountants’ (AICPA) section of Valuation and Forensic services

A Business Feasibility Study plays a crucial role in the decision making process when assessing the viability of a business or undertaking a major project. The recent economic crisis has changed what the global business community expects from feasibility studies.


- The global economic environment was experiencing stable growth and relevant factors affecting feasibility studies could normally be predicted. - Businesses could raise finance easily either from banks, investors or even from their creditors. During this period of “prosperity”, business feasibility studies have been mostly associated with the launch of new product or service, the start of a new business and the substantial investment in fixed assets. Not much attention was given in assessing the financial performance and viability of existing enterprises. The preparation of feasibility studies with respect to the assessment of the economic environment was generally considered an easy task due to the stability of the major economic factors. But now the situation has changed drastically.


- The global economic environment experienced market instability with many businesses still facing declining revenue. The US economy is experiencing an “uneven and modest” recovery. However, risks remain as the Euro crisis is threatening to hamper the world economy. - Banks are very cautious when asked to provide additional finance. - Investors are unwilling to take risks and prefer risk- free solutions. - Creditors are not willing to extend credit lines. In these precarious times of market instability, business feasibility studies are becoming an essential supportive tool for businesses to stay solvent either when taking internally remedial action to improve cash flows or raising finance or refinancing existing loans. Under these circumstances the preparation of a feasibility study becomes challenging but at the same time an increasingly difficult endeavour for the analyst. The professional analyst engaged to perform the study must

take into consideration economic factors that are internal or external to the business and directly or indirectly affect it when preparing projected financial statements and assessing the market.


Some of the factors that usually affect business operations are the unemployment, inflation, consumer spending, consumer confidence and taxes. These factors, and probably others depending on each case, ought to be covered in more detail in the SWOT analysis section of feasibility reports. The professional must also analyse how these factors might affect the subject businesses’ customers and suppliers. Too often, such an analysis is overlooked. When a feasibility study is performed professionally and economic factors are also taken into consideration and analysed carefully, very valuable information could come into light that would help the business take corrective action to improve performance.


Many feasibility studies are not developed in a professional way and do not cover adequately all significant areas. This is mainly due to limitations in scope imposed by business owners and less on the incompetence of the analyst. Business owners sometimes do not take seriously the cost-benefit relationship associated with feasibility studies. Analysts performing business feasibility studies (internally as management accountants or independent accountants) must consider the following when accepting an engagement: - Have access to all relevant financial and other information necessary for the engagement; - Seek support from others when confronted with specialized issues he/she is not familiar with; - Gather adequate supportive evidence to back the main issues addressed in the report. The study must be developed in a consistent manner and the assumptions underlying the projections must be clearly stated and the logic behind them explained. Above issues are also often overlooked.


Even when feasibility studies are prepared by professionals, their content and format differs among them. Forming guidelines at least with regard to the areas to be covered in a feasibil-

WHAT YOU NEED A Business Feasibility Study must cover the following areas: Study Objective and Scope A Brief Business History and Nature of Business Management Assessment Market Assessment Determining the size of the market, the target market, market trends, and market share; Competition analysis; SWOT analysis. identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats; Marketing strategy. Financial Assessment Historical financial statement analysis for the last 5 years; Ratio analysis and trend analysis; Projected financial statement analysis for the next 5 years; Monthly projected cash flow for the first year; Sensitivity analysis and breakeven point analysis; Historic and projected financial statement comparisons. Required Financing/Refinancing Investment Appraisal (Applies when planning to make a substantial capital investment) Payback method, discounted cash flow method; Accounting rate of return and internal rate of return. Conclusions and Recommendations ity study should be given some thought by professional accounting bodies worldwide in order to enhance both consistency and quality of reports developed by their members. It will take a few more years before we return to a stable economic environment. In the meantime the business community should be alert and ready to adjust to changes quickly because the world is changing faster than ever before. Business owners should be advised to periodically perform business analysis including feasibility studies, when appropriate, in order to make the necessary improvements at an early stage before the situation gets out of control. Feasibility studies must be performed in a professional way and take into account all the factors affecting the subject business operations. The professional accounting bodies should consider issuing guidelines and or directions with respect to the content of such studies.

Cyprus needs to be ready for a possible “Grexit” Greek Premier Antonis Samaras failed to win any concessions from Germany and France and earlier from president of Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Junker on securing an extension to implement his reform plan, which means the scenario of a Greek withdrawal from the euro is looming. Samaras has to find a new austerity package of EUR 14 bln for the next two years to convince his fellow Europeans that Greece can qualify for a new loan package. The Troika – made up of the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF will audit Greece’s books during September and hand in their report for discussion by EU leaders on October 18-19, which may be the critical date for Greece and on whether it will remain in the eurozone or not. Der Spiegel reported that task forces throughout the euro zone are trying to figure out what would happen next. There is one such task force at the ECB, one at the German central bank, the Bundesbank, and one at the German Finance Ministry. All three come to the same conclusion: Nobody really knows for sure what will happen if Greece is forced out of the euro. Cyprus however is most exposed to a possible Grexit scenario and as much as we may dislike such a possibility, but plans should be drawn up on what this country will do if the dreaded outcome becomes a reality. The rest of the eurozone believes that a Grexit could be absorbed and the hit would not be so huge and there will be no contagion to Italy and Spain. For sure everybody agrees that there will be a shock, but during the past two years, EU banks, insurers and funds that were holding Greek debt have managed

to exit out of their positions through a combination of outright loss on their holdings and the ECB buying the bonds from them. Most of the losses have already been taken. That leaves the ECB which is now Greece’s largest creditor. If Greece defaults and stops servicing its debt, the ECB will need to be recapitalized and the losses will be spread across all eurozone nations including Cyprus.

By SHAVASB BOHDJALIAN Certified Investment Advisor and CEO of Eurivex Ltd

Cyprus’ three largest banks will be heavily exposed to a possible Grexit, but will be protected by emergency support schemes that will be unleashed by the EU/ECB to contain any fallout from a possible Greek exit. Unfortunately for Cypriot tax-payers, any increase in the loan amount that the Troika will provide to Cyprus to shield our banks from a possible Grexit will mean higher contributions in interest cost, which only means more pain and belt-tightening that will force the country into a Greece style depression. The tourism sector will also be negatively affected considering that Greece is among the top six countries supplying tourists to the island. The fallout on the whole tourism sector will be even more dramatic since Cyprus will need to slash prices to be able to compete with Greece, which will have a

huge price advantage as a result of the swift devaluation of the new drachma. Only outgoing tourism will benefit, but when personal income will decline, people will not have money to spend to go on holidays abroad. The services sector will receive a major hit as Cyprus professionals will not be able to offer their services to Greeks at current prices and will need to offer heavy discounts while the trade deficit with Greece will increase as Greek goods become cheaper and more attractive to import while Cypriot exports to Greece will collpase. Another worrisome development will be the influx of thousands of Greeks who will be willing to work for any job at any price, thus driving other EU citizens out of the jobs market and even become a threat to locals, giving rise to nationalism, burglaries and racial tensions. There are no easy answers or solutions on what will happen if Greece is forced out of the euro, but it is plain that the impact and ramifications on Cyprus will be huge and most of it will affect Cyprus in a negative way, which is why a responsible government needs to draw up contingency plans on how it will deal with such a situation. (Eurivex Ltd. is a Cyprus Investment Firm, authorized and regulated by CySEC, license #114/10 and approved by the Cyprus Stock Exchange to act as Nomad for listings on the Emerging Companies Market. The views expressed above are personal and do not bind the company and are subject to change without notice)

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Trading In Hate The massacre in Norway in July 2011 and the recent attack on a Sikh temple in Oak Creek, Wisconsin, were the work of right-wing extremists who sought to remake the world in their neo-Nazi image. Likewise, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, were the work of Islamist extremists who view other religions and cultures as a threat. But it would be simplistic to believe that our leaders do not add fuel to the fire of hatred, even if their chauvinism takes a more “civilized” form. Just ask the Japanese, who were continually denounced in the 1980’s as wicked traders. Or consider how the unceasing refrain against outsourcing nowadays has demonized India. This is not new. Japan’s heavy burden of atrocities during World War II effectively erased from America’s popular memory the Immigration Act of 1924 and other federal legislation aimed at excluding the Japanese and the Chinese from the United States, as well as racist state legislation, such as California’s 1913 Alien Land Act. With the war’s outbreak, Americans of Japanese origin were expropriated and herded into concentration camps. California Attorney General Earl Warren championed the measures – the same Earl Warren, who, a decade later, as Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court, would oversee the rejection of the separate-but-equal doctrine at the heart of America’s segregation of its black citizens. The anti-Japanese hysteria of the 1980’s fell on fertile ground. Many in the US feared that, just as the nineteenth century had been British and the twentieth century had been American, the twenty-first century would be Japanese. But, unlike the British or the Americans, the Japanese allegedly were gaining ground in nefarious ways, exporting aggressively to the US and unfairly excluding US exports from their domestic market.

Virtually every Japanese policy was interpreted in the worst possible light. The propaganda was bipartisan in the US, and, with few noteworthy exceptions, was widely disseminated by the country’s uncritical and pseudopatriotic media. I recall the Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson – alongside John Maynard Keynes, arguably the greatest economist of his time – remarking that anti-Japanese propaganda had gone so far that Japan’s critics would argue that the Japanese bow in greeting Westerners to make it easier to cut them off at the knees.

By JAGDISH BHAGWATI Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University and Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations

The effect, particularly given a long history of antiJapanese sentiment, was a predictable wave of racist violence, including the destruction of Japanese cars. The beating death of Vincent Chin, a Chinese-American who was mistaken for a Japanese, also resonated historically, recalling a pseudoscientific article on how to distinguish the Chinese from the Japanese that Life magazine published in December 1941. The Indian situation in the US today is different; there is no baggage of unpleasant memories on which prejudice and violence can draw. Yet, like a desert cactus, hate can thrive on very little. Unfortunately, US President Barack Obama’s administration has continually harped on outsourcing to India as a cause of American job losses. Similarly, Senator

Charles Schumer of New York has indulged in Japanbashing, China-bashing, and India-bashing – a singular record of truculence and economic illiteracy – while Senator Barbara Boxer of California attacked her most recent electoral opponent, Carly Fiorina, for eliminating 30,000 jobs at Hewlett Packard during her stewardship of the company. In fact, in a highly competitive world, Hewlett-Packard managed to save 150,000 jobs by sacrificing those 30,000. In the current presidential election campaign, the Democratic Party is attacking Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, on the same specious grounds, with a complacent media acquiescing in the Democrats’ de facto India-baiting. The net result has been to fuel resentment against India that spills over into occasional violence. Groups calling themselves “dot-busters” have attacked Indian women. When I have written in favor of freer trade and liberal immigration, I have been denounced as a “curry nigger.” Nor has the Obama administration helped matters by shifting the blame for the failure of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations onto India. Outside the US, it is well known that Obama himself pulled the plug on Doha. The notion that “we are open and others are closed,” a cherished belief of US politicians and media – and an article of faith with the current administration – also feeds the notion that countries like India are wicked traders, much like the Japanese in the 1980’s. Much of the world expected more elevated behavior from Obama. Unfortunately, it has gotten a much lower standard than it anticipated. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

A Flock of Black Swans Throughout history, major political and economic shocks have often occurred in August, when leaders have gone on vacation believing that world affairs are quiet. Consider World War I’s outbreak in 1914, the Nazi-Soviet pact in 1939, the Sputnik launch in 1957, the Berlin Wall in 1961, and the failed coup in Moscow of 1991. Then there was the Nixon shock of 1971 (when the American president took the dollar off the gold standard and imposed wage, price, and trade controls), the 1982 international debt crisis in Mexico, the 1992 crisis in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Many of these shocks constituted events that had previously been considered unthinkable. They were not even on the radar screen. Such developments have been called “black swans” – events of inconceivably tiny probability. But, in my view, “black swan” should refer to something else: an event that is considered virtually impossible by those whose frame of reference is limited in time and geographical area, but not by those who consider other countries and other decades or centuries. The origin of the black swan metaphor was the belief that all swans are white, a conclusion that a nineteenth-century Englishman might have reached based on a lifetime of personal observation and David Hume’s principle of induction. But ornithologists already knew that black swans existed in Australia, having discovered them in 1697. They should not have been viewed as “unthinkable.” Before September 11, 2001, some experts warned that foreign terrorists might try to blow up American office buildings. Those in power did not take these warnings seriously. After all, “it had never happened before.” Many Americans did not know the history of terrorist events in other countries and other decades. Likewise, until 2006, most Americans based their economic behavior on the assumption that nominal housing prices, even if they slowed, would not fall, because they had not done so before – within living memory in the US. They may not have been aware that housing prices had often fallen in other countries, and in the US before the 1940’s. Needless to say, many indebted homeowners and leveraged bank executives would have made very different decisions had they thought that there was a non-negligible chance of

an outright decline in prices. From 2004 to 2006, financial markets perceived market risk as very low. This was most apparent in the implicit volatilities in options prices such as the VIX. But it was also manifest in junk-bond spreads, sovereign spreads, and many other financial prices. One reason for this historic mispricing of risk is that traders’ models went back only a few years, or at most a few decades (the period of the late “Great Moderation”). Traders should have gone back much further – or better yet, formed judgments based on a more comprehensive assessment of what risks might confront the world economy.

By JEFFREY FRANKEL Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University

Starting in August 2007, supposedly singular black swans begin to multiply quickly. “Big banks don’t fail?” No comment. “Governments of advanced countries don’t default?” Enough said. Debt troubles in Greece, especially, should not have surprised anyone, least of all northern Europeans. But, even when the Greek crisis erupted, leaders in Brussels and Frankfurt failed to recognize it as a close cousin of the Argentine crisis of 2001-2002, the Mexican crisis of 1994, and many others in history, including among European countries. Nowadays, a eurozone breakup has become one of the most widely discussed possible shocks. Considered unthinkable just a short time ago, the probability that one or more euro members will drop out is now well above 50%. A hard landing in China and other emerging markets is another possibility. An oil crisis in the Mideast is the classic black-swan event. Each one catches us by surprise: 1956, 1973, 1979, 1990. Oil prices can rise for many other reasons, as they have in recent years. But the most likely crisis scenarios currently

stem from either military conflict with Iran or instability in some Arab country. The threat of a supply shock typically fuels a sharp increase in demand for oil inventories – and thus in prices. The most worrisome financial threat is that currently over-priced bond markets will crash. In theory, inflation (particularly commodity-induced inflation, as in 1973 or 1979) could precipitate a collapse. But this seems unlikely. Default in some euro countries or political dysfunction in the US is a much more likely trigger. Evidence of extreme dysfunction in US politics is already plain to see, reaching a low in 2011 during the debt-ceiling showdown (also in August), which cost America its AAA sovereign rating from Standard & Poor’s. In theory, as the “fiscal cliff” set for January 1, 2013, approaches, fearful investors should start dumping bonds now. But investors still believe that politicians, aware of the dire consequences of going over the cliff, will again find a last-minute way to avoid it. Perhaps observers believe that a clear result in November’s elections, one way or the other, would help to settle things. A true black swan – low probability, but high enough to think about – would be a repeat of the disputed 2000 presidential election. There has been no reform since then to ensure that people’s votes will be counted or that a disputed outcome will not be resolved by political appointees. Scariest on the black-swan list is a terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction. There is a long-standing gap between terrorism experts’ perception of the probability of a nuclear event and the probability as perceived by the public. (Admittedly, the risk is lower now that Osama bin Laden is dead.) Last on the list is an unprecedented climate disaster. Environmentalists sometimes underestimate the benefits of technological and economic progress when they reason that a finite supply of resources must imply their eventual exhaustion. But it is equally mistaken to believe that a true climate disaster cannot happen simply because one has not already occurred. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


A Global Solutions Network Great social change occurs in several ways. A technological breakthrough – the steam engine, computers, the Internet – may play a leading role. Visionaries, such as Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr., and Nelson Mandela, may inspire a demand for justice. Political leaders may lead a broad reform movement, as with Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal. Our own generation urgently needs to spur another era of great social change. This time, we must act to save the planet from a human-induced environmental catastrophe. Each of us senses this challenge almost daily. Heat waves, droughts, floods, forest fires, retreating glaciers, polluted rivers, and extreme storms buffet the planet at a dramatically rising rate, owing to human activities. Our $70-trillion-per-year global economy is putting unprecedented pressures on the natural environment. We will need new technologies, behaviors, and ethics, supported by solid evidence, to reconcile further economic development with environmental sustainability. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is taking on this unprecedented challenge from his unique position at the crossroads of global politics and society. At the political level, the UN is the meeting place for 193 member states to negotiate and create international law, as in the important treaty on climate change adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. At the level of global society, the UN represents the world’s citizenry, “we the peoples,” as it says in the UN Charter. At the societal level, the UN is about the rights and responsibilities of all of us, including future generations. In the past two decades, governments have come up short on solutions to environmental threats. Politicians have failed to implement properly the treaties adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit. Ban knows that strong government action remains vital, but he also recognizes that civil society must also play a larger role, especially because too many governments and politicians are beholden to vested interests, and too few politicians think in time horizons that extend past the next election. To empower global society to act, Ban has launched a bold new global initiative, for which I am grateful to volunteer. The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network is a powerful effort to mobilize global knowledge to save the planet. The idea

is to use global networks of knowledge and action to identify and demonstrate new, cutting-edge approaches to sustainable development around the world. The network will work alongside and support governments, UN agencies, civil-society organizations, and the private sector. Humanity needs to learn new ways to produce and use lowcarbon energy, grow food sustainably, build livable cities, and manage the global commons of oceans, biodiversity, and the

By JEFFREY D. SACHS Professor of Economics and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is also Special Adviser to United Nations SecretaryGeneral on the Millennium Development Goals

atmosphere. But time is running very short. Today’s mega-cities, for example, already have to confront dangerous heat waves, rising sea levels, more extreme storms, dire congestion, and air and water pollution. Agricultural regions already need to become more resilient in the face of increased climate volatility. And as one region in one part of the world designs a better way to manage its transport, energy needs, water supplies, or food supplies, those successes should quickly become part of the global knowledge base, enabling other regions to benefit rapidly as well. Universities have a special role to play in the new UN knowledge network. Exactly 150 years ago, in 1862, Abraham Lincoln created America’s “land-grant” universities to help local communities to improve farming and the quality of life through science. Today, we need universities in all parts of the world to help their societies face the challenges of poverty reduction, clean energy, sustainable food supplies, and the rest. By linking together, and putting their curricula online, the world’s universities can become even more effective in discovering and promoting science-based solutions to complex problems. The world’s corporate sector also has a significant role to play in sustainable development. Now the corporate sector has two

faces. It is the repository of cutting-edge sustainable technologies, pioneering research and development, world-class management, and leadership in environmental sustainability. Yet at the same time, the corporate sector lobbies aggressively to gut environmental regulations, slash corporate-tax rates, and avoid their own responsibility for ecological destruction. Sometimes the same company operates on both sides of the divide. We urgently need far-sighted companies to join the Sustainable Development Solutions Network. These companies are uniquely placed to move new ideas and technologies into early-stage demonstration projects, thereby accelerating global learning cycles. Equally important, we need a critical mass of respected corporate leaders to press their peers to cease the antienvironmental lobbying and campaign-finance practices that account for the inaction of governments. Sustainable development is a generational challenge, not a short-term task. The reinvention of energy, food, transport, and other systems will take decades, not years. But the long-term nature of this challenge must not lull us into inaction. We must start reinventing our productive systems now, precisely because the path of change will be so long and the environmental dangers are already so pressing. At the Rio+20 Summit this past June, the world’s governments agreed to adopt a new set of goals on sustainable development for the period after 2015, to build upon the Millennium Development Goals’ success in reducing poverty, hunger, and disease. In the post-2015 era, the fight against poverty and the fight to protect the environment will go hand in hand, reinforcing each other. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has already initiated several global processes to help establish the new post2015 goals in an open, participatory, and knowledge-based way. The Secretary General’s launch of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network is therefore especially timely. Not only will the world adopt a new set of goals to achieve sustainable development, but it will also have a new global network of expertise to help achieve those vital objectives. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

Culture clean-up follows bankers to the bar In the boom years, conspicuous consumption in the bars was investment bankers’ natural release from long hours in the office. Now the office sits on their shoulders while they sup. After a series of banking scandals, banks’ compliance teams are ramping up their checks on every aspect of office life, such that even social outings are under scrutiny, with training sessions on what you can and can’t say over a beer with colleagues. “Everyone is more paranoid, that’s for sure,” said one department head at a European investment bank, where the trading floor is festooned with posters reminding staff to report any suspicious behaviour. At his bank and at least one other European firm, executives said they were being asked to take part in an increasing number of behavioural coaching sessions, including simulations of pub outings. These were mainly done via webcasts, where participants act out conversations with colleagues where the talk turns to clients or office gossip, two bankers said. “You have to turn around and say, ‘No, let’s not talk about that’,” said one. Such simulations and extensive compliance checks, including regular sweeps of emails and phone calls, are part of the new reality since the 2008 financial crisis, as watchdogs like Britain’s Financial Services Authority replace their now pilloried light-

cases of information leaking in open trading rooms, where someone took notes on what was being said and traded on it,” said Stuart King, a former FSA and Bank of England official now advising on compliance issues at consultancy Promontory. “That will lead to a different working culture.” Two senior trading managers said staff were encouraged to make notes of their discussions in key meetings, for instance, or were being advised to limit with whom who they shared potentially sensitive information about clients. touch supervision with a more active and intrusive stance. Successful convictions of individuals for market abuse schemes in the UK have also put bankers on their guard, as have scandals such as the manipulation of the Libor interest rate, a benchmark rate on which trillions of dollars of financial products are based. Barclays PLC is already counting the cost of that scandal - $453 mln in fines and others are under investigation. A haul of incriminating and embarrassing emails linked to the global Libor probe has put individual traders on the spot and made them acutely aware that their communications are being examined as never before. “There are even some (market abuse)

LISTENING IN Some worry the extra scrutiny will make it harder to do their jobs and will make much of the smallest slip-ups, while doing little to help uncover sophisticated market abuse schemes. “You are increasingly worried about running things by investors in case you give someone an unfair advantage,” said one equities banker, referring to rights issues and share sales. Investment banks are doing much of their own checks in-house. That includes housing special, multi-lingual teams to listen live to calls or to trawl through recordings of conversations, bankers in London said. Software is sophisticated enough to search for specific keywords in recorded

calls or emails - a company name around the time of a merger or acquisition to root out instances of insider trading, one banker said. “The bank doesn’t want to sit there and be told (by regulators) there is a smoking gun; it wants to find it first and work out how to deal with it,” said James Worsnip of consultancy AlixPartners, which helps banks with the forensic examination of communications. SENIOR STAFF UNDER SPOTLIGHT Regulators like the FSA, meanwhile, are making their presence felt on the floor much more, sometimes asking mid-level managers to step aside for impromptu chats in the course of their rounds, bankers said. Division heads in particular are under more scrutiny than before. An FSA attempt to punish a UBS banker for compliance failings that occurred in his UK wealth management division was thrown out in April, but the case sent shivers through the senior ranks of the City of London. It is closely studied by managers now required by the FSA to undergo more robust interviews when they take on top jobs, Promontory’s King said. “It should protect you,” said the head of one debt team. “If you are doing everything by the book, it means you know you can show you have done nothing wrong.”

August 29 - September 4, 2012

12 | WORLD

Dutch budget, reform goals tricky Dutch political parties fighting an election on September 12 will find it hard to meet EU budget rules while at the same time reforming the housing market, according to research by the government agency charged with assessing economic plans. With its triple-A credit rating and its deep integration with the German economy reinforced by Rotterdam’s status as the main port for German exporters, the Netherlands remains one of the euro zone’s core economies. But tailwinds from the housing market have kept its growth below Germany’s. House prices are down 15% since their 2008 peak, and the central bank has forecast that a further 10% fall would put 30% of mortgages under water, further eroding consumer confidence and spending. “The lack of confidence in the housing market matters enormously,” said Coen Teulings, director of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), which produces forecasts of parties’ taxation and spending plans before each election. Plans to address the drag on growth posed by the housing market have featured prominently in the campaign ahead of the elections. But cuts to mortgage tax benefit like that proposed by the left-wing Labour Party, one of the parties that could be in the next coalition government, would hit consumer spending and put a drag on the housing market - both factors likely to slow the economy and reduce tax revenues overall.

That in turn could threaten efforts by the Netherlands to bring the state deficit below the EU ceiling of 3% of GDP. The Dutch, who during the 1990s could borrow up to 12 times their income to buy a house, have increased their collective mortgage debt from 140 bln euros in 1995 to 640 bln euros last year, or 105% of GDP, encouraged by a benefit allowing borrowers to deduct mortgage payments from their tax liabilities. “There is in some sense a trade off between getting the government deficit in order and getting the housing market in order,” said Teulings. “Doing those things simultaneously is very difficult.” The last government, a coalition between Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberal Party and the Christian Democrats, collapsed in April when its chief ally, Geert Wilders, refused to back budget cuts needed to bring the state deficit below 3% of GDP in line with European Union rules. The CPB last week forecast the deficit would be 3.6% of economic output this year, falling to 2.7% in 2013. The CPB’s analysis of the parties’ programmes confirms the Netherlands’ reputation for commitment to budget restraint. While parties disagree on the pace of the consolida-

tion needed to bring the country’s deficit below 3%, all of them share the goal of eventually achieving it. The Dutch government debt level is expected to be 71.6% of GDP this year, the forecaster said last week. The Dutch debt level in 2017 could range from 69.4% of GDP under the opposition party GreenLeft’s proposals to 74.5% under the Liberals’ policies and 74.7% under the Christian Democrats’ proposals. Other factors explaining the Netherlands’ sluggish growth relative to Germany’s included the country’s funded pension system and fiscal policy, Teulings said. But all parties - including those such as Wilders’ anti-immigration Freedom Party and the left-wing Socialist Party that have the reputation of being profligate populists - would bring the deficit down by between 0.7 and 1.4% compared with the CPB’s baseline forecast of a 2.6% deficit for 2017. And parties are prepared to pay a cost to do so. All programmes apart from the Freedom Party’s will impose a growth penalty on the Dutch economy, according to the CPB, while the parties’ plans could push unemployment up by between 0.8 and 1.5% over the CPB’s 5.25% forecast.

Germans fear for future exports l Business

sentiment at lowest since March 2010

German business sentiment dropped for a fourth month in a row in August to reach its lowest level since March 2010, driven lower by increasing worries about the future level of exports. The Munich-based Ifo think tank said on Monday its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, fell to 102.3 in August from a downwardly revised 103.2 in July. For the first time in three years the majority of firms deemed their export prospects “negative”. “German companies are increasingly becoming pessimistic about the future... exports and domestic consumption have shielded the German economy against the euro crisis virus up to now. This immunity, however, has been crumbling away quickly over recent months,” said Carsten Brzeski at ING. “It looks as if the German economy will, at best, be treading water in the coming months. The latest batch of sentiment indicators even points to a contraction in the third quarter,” he added. Growth in Europe’s largest economy slowed in the second quarter of this year to 0.3%. A string of increasingly gloomy data has raised the possibility of recession in the second half of the year. That spells particularly bad news for the euro zone

economy, which desperately needs Germany - until recently resilient to the crisis - to help haul it out of a slump. EXPORT FEARS The decline in the Ifo index reflects companies fears that

European export markets are faltering and demand from emerging economies may not be able to pick up the slack. “The euro crisis is gnawing away at German growth,” said Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe. As well as the negative expectations for exports, wholesale and retail expectations also slumped. “This is down to the general unease, which is becoming more evident,” Wohlrabe said. An Ifo sub-index on current business conditions fell to a more than two year low of 111.2 from a previous 111.6, while business expectations fell to a more than three-year low of 94.2 from 95.6 a month earlier. Orders from abroad for Germany’s manufacturing goods, a mainstay for the economy, also fell this month at the fastest rate since April 2009. Industrial flagships ThyssenKrupp and Opel have announced they are reducing working hours due to weaker demand while Bosch announced it was in talks with workers over shortening hours. A slowdown carries risks for Merkel as she seeks a third term in office next year and could tie her hands when it comes to bailing out indebted euro zone peers, especially if a nascent rise in unemployment accelerates.

Polish firms feel pain as miracle fades The name of the town of Dobra Nadzieja where Piotr Wysocki runs his saddle-making business translates as “Good Hope,” a commodity that’s in short supply since the economic slowdown ravaging the rest of Europe finally arrived in Poland. Through a combination of European Union money, solid economic management and heavy public investment, Poland has managed to hang on to robust growth even when its neighbours were slumping into recession. But a series of gloomy economic indicators show that the economic miracle, as some people call it, is coming to an end. Growth is slowing sharply and many economists believe things could get even worse. Wysocki’s saddle-making firm, Daw-Mag, sells 70% of what it manufactures to other EU countries, making it particularly vulnerable to a downturn across the euro zone which has finally reached Germany, Polish exporters’ key market. He said clients from Britain and Denmark, among other countries, had cancelled their orders. The firm has tried to fill the gap by diversifying into other products, like leather upholstery.

“Because of the slowdown, we also had to suspend investments. We had planned to expand our manufacturing operation, but those plans need to be put aside for better times,” said Wysocki. INSULATED NO LONGER By the standards of many of its shrinking euro zone neighbours, Poland’s plight is not that bad. However, for Poles - accustomed to 20 years of almost uninterrupted growth since they threw off Communism - the slowdown is difficult to swallow. Across the biggest of the eastern economies to join the Union in the past decade, people and businesses are feeling the pain from slowing growth: order books thinning out, customers delaying payment, and more people chasing fewer jobs. Nearly 80% of Poland’s exports go to the EU, where recession and a debt crisis have crippled demand for goods. In the capital Warsaw, Rafal Nawloka, the chief executive of express delivery company DPD Polska, said his firm had regis-

tered double-digit annual rises in the number of deliveries it was handling over the past few years. This year, the increase will be in single digits. Delivery firms are a useful barometer of the health of the economy since they have customers from every sector of business. “This all gives a picture of stagnation,” said Nawloka. “There are no factors on the horizon that could give the economy an impulse to grow.” Another firm in the sector is experiencing similar difficulties. “We are feeling a severe slowdown,” said Arkadiusz Sienkiewicz, co-owner of express delivery broker Kurier Polska. “It is a tragedy. Firms are going bankrupt.” "We have half the numbers of orders that we did a year ago. Last year, many people were bringing in 10 to 15 orders a day. Now they bring one or two," he said. Up to now, the Poles have been insulated from the euro zone slowdown by a massive programme of public investments, including new roads and stadia for the Euro 2012 soccer tournament, which it co-hosted with neighbour Ukraine.


∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 29 ∞À°√À™∆√À, 2012

∆Ú. ∫‡ÚÔ˘: ∏ ∂ÏÏ¿‰·, Ë Uniastrum Î·È Ô ∂˘‰fiÎÈÌÔ˜ √È ·˘ÍË̤Ó˜ ÂÈÛÊ¿ÏÂȘ Ù˘ ∆Ú¿Â˙·˜ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ‚¿˙Ô˘Ó ÊÚ¤ÓÔ ÛÙÔ ıÂÙÈÎfi Îϛ̷ Î·È ÛÙ· Î¤Ú‰Ë ÙÔ˘ ÚÒÙÔ˘ ÙÚÈÌ‹ÓÔ˘ ηıÒ˜ fï˜ ÏËÚÔÊÔÚÂ›Ù·È Ë Financial Mirror Ô‰ËÁÔ‡Ó ÙÔ ™˘ÁÎÚfiÙËÌ· Û ˙ËÌȤ˜ Ô˘ ı· ÍÂÂÚ¿ÛÔ˘Ó Ù· 100 ÂÎ. ¢ÚÒ ÁÈ· ÙÔ ÚÒÙÔ ÂÍ¿ÌËÓÔ ÙÔ˘ 2012 Σύµφωνα µε τισ πληροφορίεσ µασ οι ζηµιέσ ανέρχονται στα 114 εκ. ευρώ και µÞνο άσχετεσ δεν είναι απÞ τισ προσπάθειεσ που καταβάλλονται µε τισ ευλογίεσ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ για αλλαγή του δανειακού χαρτοφυλακίου τουσ µε άλλη ελληνική Τράπεζα που δραστηριοποιείται στην Κύπρο. Τα εξαµηνιαία αναµένεται να ανακοινωθούν αύριο Πέµπτη ενώ την ίδια µέρα αναµένεται να επικυρωθεί και η αποχώρηση του Μάνθου Μαυροµµάτη απÞ το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο αφού παρά τισ προσπάθειεσ που έγιναν για να µεταπειστεί ήταν ανένδοτοσ. Στην Τράπεζα πάντωσ εµφανίζονται σφοδρά ενοχληµένοι απÞ δηµοσιεύµατα που κάνουν λÞγο για µαγειρεµένα στοιχεία και τονίζουν την ανάγκη να πέσουν οι τÞνοι για το καλÞ του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται σε σχετική ανακοίνω-

ση απορρίπτουν κατηγορηµατικά τουσ ισχυρισµούσ περί «Μαγειρέµατοσ Στοιχείων» καθώσ και για ανεπάρκεια τησ διαδικασίασ τεχνοοικονοµικήσ µελέτησ (due diligence) για την εξαγορά τησ Uniastrum Bank. Ένασ άλλοσ πονοκέφαλοσ που θα έχει να αντιµετωπίσει το ΣυγκρÞτηµα είναι η επιµονή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ για παύση απÞ τη θέση του Προέδρου τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου του κύριου ΘεÞδωρου Αριστοδήµου. Ο ∆ιοικητήσ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Πανίκοσ ∆ηµητριάδησ επιθυµεί σύµφωνα µε καλά πληροφορήµενεσ πηγέσ το διορισµÞ στη θέση του Προέδρου του κύριου ΕυδÞκιµου Ξενοφώντοσ ο οποίοσ απολαµβάνει τησ εµπιστοσύνησ και του Ρώσου µεγαλοµέτοχου τησ Τράπεζασ Ντµίτρι ΡιµπολÞβλεφ. Ο λÞγοσ που θέλει να παραιτηθεί είναι το Þτι θεωρεί Þτι ωσ ΠρÞεδροσ

έδωσε πλήρη στήριξη στον τέωσ CEO Ανδρέα Ηλιάδη και Þχι τα πολλά δάνεια εκατοµµυρίων που δÞθηκαν στην εταιρεία του καθώσ δεν δÞθηκαν µε ευνοϊκούσ Þρουσ και ούτε θεωρούνται σήµερα ωσ µη εξυπηρετούµενα. Για το θέµα αυτÞ τοποθετήθηκε δηµÞσια πρÞσφατα και ο ΠΑΣΕΧΑ ο οποίοσ σηµείωνε Þτι αφενÞσ έκλεισε ο κύκλοσ του ΘεÞδωρου Αριστοδήµου στο ΣυγκρÞτηµα και αφετέρου Þτι θα έπρεπε στη θέση του να διοριστεί ο κύριοσ Ξενοφώντοσ. Τέλοσ να αναφέρουµε πωσ ο 74χρÞνοσ σήµερα ΕυδÞκιµοσ Ξενοφώντοσ Þµωσ µασ ανέφεραν άτοµα απÞ τον κύκλο του επιθυµεί να αναλάβει τα ηνία εάν αυτÞ αποφασιστεί απÞ το ∆Σ. Για την ώρα παραµένει άγνωστο το κατά πÞσον ο ΘεÞδωροσ Αριστοδήµου σκοπεύει να παραιτηθεί αφού επίστρεψε µÞλισ πρÞσφατα στην Κύπρο απÞ το εξωτερικÞ που βρισκÞταν για λÞγουσ υγείασ.

ŒÓ·˜ ¿ÏÏÔ˜ ÔÓÔΤʷÏÔ˜ Ô˘ ¤¯ÂÈ Ó· ·ÓÙÈÌÂÙˆ›ÛÂÈ ÙÔ ™˘ÁÎÚfiÙËÌ· Â›Ó·È Ë ÂÈÌÔÓ‹ Ù˘ ∫ÂÓÙÚÈ΋˜ ∆Ú¿Â˙·˜ ÁÈ· ·‡ÛË ·fi ÙË ı¤ÛË ÙÔ˘ ¶ÚÔ¤‰ÚÔ˘ Ù˘ ∆Ú¿Â˙·˜ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ÙÔ˘ ·ÚÈÔ˘ £Âfi‰ˆÚÔ˘ ∞ÚÈÛÙÔ‰‹ÌÔ˘.

§·˚΋: ™Ù· ¯¤ÚÈ· ÙÔ˘ ¢™ ÙÔ Û¯¤‰ÈÔ ·Ó·‰È¿ÚıÚˆÛ˘ Ενώπιον του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ βρίσκεται απÞ χθεσ το απÞγευµα το σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσησ τησ τράπεζασ που ετοίµασαν οι εξωτερικοί σύµβουλοι KPMG. Το σχέδιο θα τύχει τησ ανάλογησ επεξεργασίασ απÞ τη διοίκηση τησ τράπεζασ και ακολούθωσ θα τεθεί ενώπιον του Υπουργού Οικονοµικών, του διοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ. Μετά την έγκριση του µεγαλοµετÞχου, θα σταλεί στην τρÞικα για να εγκριθεί πιθα-

νÞν στο τέλοσ του 2012 ή αρχέσ του 2013 στη βάση των κανονισµών για κρατική στήριξη τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ. Η ετοιµασία του σχεδίου αναδιάρθρωσησ τησ τράπεζασ περιλαµβανÞταν στο διάταγµα που εξέδωσε τον περασµένο Μάιο το Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών περί αναδοχήσ των δικαιωµάτων προτίµησησ τησ Λαϊκήσ. Το διάταγµα σκιαγραφεί εν µέρει και τουσ Þρουσ του σχεδίου αναδιάρθρωσησ, οι οποίοι είναι µείωση εξÞδων προσωπικού τησ τράπεζασ κατά τουλάχιστον 10% το 2012 και

κατά πρÞσθετο 8% το 2013, µείωση αποδοχών και ωφεληµάτων του προσωπικού στην Κύπρο κατά µέσον Þρο τουλάχιστον 12,5% σε ετήσια βάση και µε κλιµακωτή εφαρµογή κατÞπιν διαβούλευσησ µε τισ συνδικαλιστικέσ οργανώσεισ, αλλά και µείωση των ενα-

ποµενουσών λειτουργικών δαπανών κατά τουλάχιστον 7%. Οπωσ αναφέρεται στο διάταγµα, η Κεντρική Τράπεζα µετά απÞ διαβούλευση µε το ΥΠΟΙΚ και την τράπεζα θα αξιολογήσει το σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσησ και αφού το κρίνει ωσ το ενδεδειγµένο και υλοποιήσιµο θα το προωθήσει στο Υπουργείο. Το ΥΠΟΙΚ εντÞσ έξι µηνών απÞ τη θέση σε ισχύ του διατάγµατοσ θα υποβάλει το σχέδιο στην Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή προσ έγκριση.

TOFARCO: £Â̤ÏÈ· ÁÈ· «§ÂˆÊfiÚÔ» Î·È «¡·‚·Ú›ÓÔ» Με τισ καλύτερεσ προοπτικέσ συνεχίζεται για την TOFARCO η φετινή χρονιά αφού µπαίνει σε µια νέα εποχή και οδηγείται δυναµικά στο µέλλον, εδραιώνοντασ την ηγετική τησ θέση στον τοµέα των εµπορικών και Þχι µÞνο κατασκευών στην Κύπρο. Πιο αναλυτικά, µε την ανάπτυξη δύο νέων εµπορικών έργων το ένα στην Αγλαντζία µε την ονοµασία «ΛεωφÞροσ» και το άλλο στον Άγιο Ανδρέα µε την ονοµασία «Ναβαρίνο» η TOFARCO καθιερώνεται σαν µια απÞ τισ πρωτοπÞρεσ εταιρείεσ που συνεχίζει να αναπτύσσει εµπορικά έργα σύγχρονων προδιαγραφών στην Κύπρο σε περιÞδουσ µάλιστα οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ. Το «ΛεωφÞροσ» βρίσκεται σε µια απÞ τισ πιο κεντρικέσ περιοχέσ τησ Αγλαντζίασ η οποία έχει κοντά υπηρεσίεσ, εστιατÞρια αλλά και καταστήµατα, συγκεκριµένα είναι στη συµβολή τησ ΛεωφÞρου Αγλαντζιάσ µε την οδÞ Γρίβα ∆ιγενή και έχει συνολικÞ εµβαδÞ 5750 τ.µ. Το «Ναβαρίνο» επίσησ βρίσκεται στη

∆Ô ÌÂÁ·Ï‡ÙÂÚÔ ¤ÚÁÔ fï˜ Ô˘ ÚÔˆı› Ë ÂÙ·ÈÚ›· Â›Ó·È ·˘ÙÔ‡ Ô˘ ÚԂϤÂÈ ‰›‰˘ÌÔ˘˜ ‡ÚÁÔ˘˜ ÁÈ· ÙË ÁË Ô˘ ·ÁfiÚ·Û Á‡Úˆ ·fi ÎÙ›ÚÈÔ ÙÔ˘ ÃÚËÌ·ÙÈÛÙËÚ›Ô˘ ∞ÍÈÒÓ ∫‡ÚÔ˘. √ ۯ‰ȷÛÌfi˜ ÙÔ˘ ¤ÚÁÔ˘ ÚÔ¯ˆÚ¿ ηÓÔÓÈο Î·È Ôχ Û‡ÓÙÔÌ· ·Ó·Ì¤ÓÂÙ·È Ó· ÂÍ·ÛÊ·ÏÈÛÙÔ‡Ó fiϘ ÔÈ ¿‰ÂȘ. Λευκωσία, στην περιοχή του Αγίου Ανδρέα, επί τησ οδού Ταγµατάρχου Πουλίου και Λοχαγού Καποτά, έναντι απÞ το εστιατÞριο Ναβαρίνο και έχει συνολικÞ εµβαδÞ 1630τ.µ. Τα έργα είναι σχεδιασµένα µε λειτουργικÞτητα και άνεση και θα αποτελούνται απÞ υπÞγειουσ χώρουσ στάθµευσησ, καταστήµατα µε µεσοπάτωµα αλλά µεγάλουσ και άνε-

τουσ γραφειακούσ χώρουσ. Το µεγαλύτερο έργο Þµωσ που προωθεί η εταιρεία είναι αυτού που προβλέπει δίδυµουσ πύργουσ για τη γη που αγÞρασε γύρω απÞ κτίριο του Χρηµατιστηρίου Αξιών Κύπρου. Ο σχεδιασµÞσ του έργου προχωρά κανονικά και πολύ σύντοµα αναµένεται να εξασφαλιστούν Þλεσ οι άδειεσ.

Το έργο θα είναι εντυπωσιακÞ αφού θα αποτελείται απÞ δύο πύργουσ, ένασ εκ των οποίων θα υψώνεται σε ύψοσ 100 µέτρων και θα αποτελείται απÞ 20 ορÞφουσ. Ο δεύτεροσ πύργοσ θα είναι κάπωσ χαµηλÞτεροσ και θα αποτελείται απÞ 16 ορÞφουσ. Στα σχέδια προβλέπεται οι δύο πύργοι να ενώνονται µε γέφυρεσ-διαδρÞµουσ σε διάφορα επίπεδα ενώ µελετάται και το ενδεχÞµενο να υπάρχουν εσωτερικοί κήποι ανά τρεισ ορÞφουσ. ΛÞγω του Þτι το κτίριο θα γίνει µε σιδηροκατασκευή, αναµένεται να ολοκληρωθεί σε 15 µήνεσ απÞ την ηµεροµηνία έναρξησ των εργασιών. Το ακίνητο, µε εµβαδÞ περίπου 2.400 τ.µ., βρίσκεται µπροστά αλλά και γύρω απÞ το κτίριο του ΧΑΚ και ένα απÞ τα σηµαντικά του πλεονεκτήµατα είναι πωσ το κτίριο που θα ανεγερθεί µπορεί να έχει µεγάλη πρÞσοψη επί τησ ΛεωφÞρου Γρίβα ∆ιγενή και τησ ΛεωφÞρου Βύρωνοσ. Η Tofarco ολοκλήρωσε την αγορά του ακινήτου τον περασµένο Σεπτέµβρη έναντι 9 εκατοµµυρίων ευρώ.


29 ΑΥΓΟΥΣΤOY, 2012

2/14 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

∞ӷοÌÙÂÈ ÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ, Ì ÙÔ ¯¤ÚÈ ÛÙËÓ ÛηӉ¿ÏË Ë Fed °È· ·ÎfiÌ· ÌÈ· ÊÔÚ¿ Ë Fed ·ÏÒÓÂÈ ¯¤ÚÈ ‚ÔËı›·˜ ÛÙÔ ∂˘ÚÒ ÙÔ ÔÔ›Ô ·Ó·Î¿ÌÙÂÈ Û ˘„ËÏfi ‰‡Ô ÌËÓÒÓ ÂÓ Ì¤Ûˆ fï˜ ÌÈ·˜ ¤ÓÙÔÓ˘ Î·È ¤ÎÚ˘ıÌ˘ ·‚‚·ÈfiÙËÙ·˜ ÛÙËÓ ˙ÒÓË ÙÔ˘ ∂˘ÚÒ ¡π∫√™ ªπÃ∞∏§π¢∏™ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email:

ΑνοδικÞ ξέσπασµα σηµείωσε η ισοτιµία Ευρώ – ∆ολαρίου την εβδοµάδα που µασ πέρασε η οποία αναρριχήθηκε σε νέο υψηλÞ δύο µηνών. Συγκεκριµένα η ισοτιµία απÞ τα 1.2350 τησ περασµένησ εβδοµάδοσ ακολουθώντασ έντονη ανοδική πορεία ενισχύθηκε µέχρι και τα 1.2580 για να διορθώσει στην συνέχεια κοντά στα 1.2500 Þπου και κινείται τισ τελευταίεσ ηµέρεσ. Μια κίνηση θα λέγαµε αναµενÞµενη αφού ο χρÞνοσ λειτουργούσε υπέρ τησ ισοτιµίασ και Þσο τα 1,20 αποµακρύνονταν τÞσο πιο κοντά ερχÞταν η ισοτιµία σε ένα ανοδικÞ ξέσπασµα. Βεβαία καταλυτικά λειτούργησε και πάλι η Fed η οποία για ακÞµη µια φορά γίνεται ο µεγαλύτεροσ σύµµαχοσ του ενιαίου νοµίσµατοσ. Σύµφωνα µε τα πρακτικά τησ τελευταίασ συνεδρίασησ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ η Fed έστειλε άλλο ένα ισχυρÞ σήµα πωσ προετοιµάζει νέα βήµατα για την τÞνωση τησ ανάκαµψησ στισ ΗΠΑ, λέγοντασ πωσ θα χρειαστούν αρκετά σύντοµα νέα µέτρα στήριξησ εκτÞσ εάν η οικονοµία αρχίσει να αναπτύσσεται µε αρκετά ταχύτερο ρυθµÞ. “Πολλά µέλη τησ Επιτροπήσ Νοµισµατικήσ Πολιτικήσ (FOMC) έκριναν πωσ αρκετά σύντοµα η επιπρÞσθετη νοµι-

σµατική χαλάρωση θα είναι δικαιολογηµένη εκτÞσ και εάν οι οικονοµικοί δείκτεσ φανερώσουν µια ουσιαστική και βιώσιµη ενδυνάµωση του ρυθµού οικονοµικήσ ανάκαµψησ”, σηµειώνεται στα πρακτικά τησ συνεδρίασησ που έλαβε χώρα στισ 31 Ιουλίου-1η Αυγούστου. Η ανακοίνωσε αποκαλύπτει την ολοένα αυξανÞµενη στήριξη εντÞσ τησ FOMC προσ τη νέα δράση. Στην προηγούµενη συνάντησή τουσ “µÞνο λίγα µέλη” πίστευαν πωσ είναι πιθανÞ να χρειαστούν νέα µέτρα. Ο περιοριστικÞσ Þροσ τησ ουσιαστικήσ και βιώσιµησ επιτάχυνσησ τησ ανάπτυξησ για την παρέµβαση τησ Fed, δείχνει πωσ η Κεντρική Τράπεζα έχει βάλει ψηλά τον πήχη. Ορισµένοι πρÞσφατοι οικονοµικοί δείκτεσ εµφανίζουν πράγµατι βελτίωση ωστÞσο λίγοι οικονοµολÞγοι χαρακτήρισαν τη βελτίωση αυτή ουσιαστική. Η επÞµενη συνεδρίαση νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ τησ Fed θα πραγµατοποιηθεί στισ 12-13 Σεπτεµβρίου και είδη η αγορά προεξοφλεί σε ποσοστÞ πέραν του 70% πωσ η Fed θα προχωρήσει στο πολύ αναµενÞµενο QE3 πριν το τέλοσ του έτουσ. Προσδοκίεσ που αυξήθηκαν ακÞµα περισσÞτερο µετά την επιστολή του προέδρου Ben Bernanke στον ρεπουµπλικάνο βουλευτή Darrell Issa µε την οποία υπερασπίζεται τισ ενέργειεσ τησ κεντρικήσ τράπεζασ επαναλαµβάνοντασ παράλληλα πωσ υπάρχει το περιθώριο περαιτέρω δράσησ. «Υπάρχει περιθώριο περαιτέρω δράσησ απÞ την Federal Reserve για να εξοµαλύνει τισ χρηµατοπιστωτικέσ συνθήκεσ

Triple 5: ∆È Û¯Â‰È¿˙ÂÈ ÁÈ· ÙȘ ∫.∞ Συγκεκριµένη πρÞταση για εξαγορά των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών απÞ την εταιρεία Triple 5 έχει εδώ και λίγεσ µέρεσ ενώπιον του ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Βάσοσ Σιαρλή η οποία και µελετάται. Ùπωσ µασ ανέφεραν καλά πληροφορηµένεσ πηγέσ ο ξένοσ κολοσσÞσ έθεσε ενώπιον του ΥΠΟΙΚ συγκεκριµένεσ προϋποθέσεισ για εξαγορά του κρατικού αεροµεταφορέα υπÞ δύο προϋποθέσεισ. Η πρώτη αφορά τον τερµατισµÞ τησ εργασίασ 270 υπαλλήλων που προβλέπεται και στο σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσησ και παράλληλα τη διατήρηση του καθεστώτοσ των κλειστών ουρανών. Παράλληλα κατέθεσαν και συγκεκριµένο επιχερηµατικÞ σχέδιο το οποίο προβλέπει την ναύλωση άλλων 12 αεροσκαφών εντÞσ του 2013 µε στÞχο να αυξηθεί ο στÞλοσ των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών στα 21 αεροσκάφη και άλλων 15 το 2014 φθάνοντασ συνολικά στα 36 αεροσκάφη. Παράλληλα η εταιρεία δεσµεύεται Þτι δεν θα απολύσει κανένα υπάλληλο και θα διατηρήσει και το Þνοµα τησ εταιρείασ το ίδιο. ΚοινωνÞσ τησ πρÞτασησ αυτήσ είναι και το νέο ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο το οποίο ανέλαβε πρÞσφατα υπÞ την προεδρία του Λαρνακέα επιχειρηµατία και λογιστή Σταύρου Σταύρου.

∞¶∞π™π√¢√•√ ∫§πª∞ ΑπÞ την πλευρά του το νέο ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών βρίσκεται σε στάση αξιολÞγησησ

των δεδοµένων, µελετώντασ τα βήµατα που θα κάνει για να βγει η εταιρεία απÞ το αδιέξοδο στο οποίο βρίσκεται. Στέλεχοσ τησ εταιρείασ είπε Þτι “σίγουρα δεν βρισκÞµαστε στην καλύτερη φάση και πρέπει σύντοµα να ξεκαθαρίσει η κατάσταση για το πού βαδίζουµε”. ΑπÞ την άλλη, το γεγονÞσ Þτι υποδείχθηκε στην Triple Five απÞ δύο οίκουσ εµπειρογνωµÞνων ένα γαλλικÞ και ένασ βρετανικÞ Þτι δεν πρÞκειται για συµφέρουσα επένδυση η εξαγορά των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών, βρίσκει την εταιρεία να κινείται πλέον σε ένα πιο απαισιÞδοξο κλίµα. “ΠρÞκειται για ένα θέµα που δεν µπορούµε να σχολιάσουµε”, είπε το στέλεχοσ τησ εταιρείασ. Οι δύο οίκοι, ωσ γνωστÞ, υπέδειξαν στην Triple Five Þτι ακÞµη και µε τισ προγραµµατιζÞµενεσ περικοπέσ δαπανών και προσωπικού, η εταιρεία Þχι µÞνο δεν είναι κερδοφÞρα, αλλά ούτε κατ’ ελάχιστον ανταγωνιστική.

K¿Ùˆ ·fi ÙȘ 90 ÌÔÓ¿‰Â˜ ÙÔ Ã∞∫ Νέα µεγάλη πτώση κατέγραψε χθεσ το κυπριακÞ χρηµατιστήριο, υποχωρώντασ και κάτω απÞ τισ 90 µονάδεσ, υπÞ το βάροσ των σηµαντικών ζηµιών σχεδÞν 7% που σηµείωσε η µετοχή τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ σηµείωσε µεγάλη πτώση σε ποσοστÞ 4,19%, κλείνοντασ στισ 89,85 µονάδεσ, που αποτελεί νέο ιστορικÞ χαµηλÞ επίπεδο. Πτώση σε ποσοστÞ 3,35% κατέγραψε ο ∆είκτησ FTSE/CySE 20, υποχωρώντασ στισ 36,3 µονάδεσ, ενώ ο ηµερήσιοσ Þγκοσ συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στισ 642.395 ευρώ. ΑρνητικÞ κλίµα επικράτησε µε το άνοιγµα τησ αγοράσ, λÞγω των ισχυρών πιέσεων που δέχθηκαν οι τραπεζικοί τίτλοι και κυρίωσ οι µετοχέσ των τραπεζών Κύπρου και Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ. Η µετοχή τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου υποχωρούσε ενδοσυνεδριακά µέχρι και 8,5%, στα 0,171 ευρώ, ενώ η µετοχή τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ κατέγραφε απώλειεσ που άγγιζαν το 10%, στα 0,034 ευρώ. Αποτέλεσµα ήταν ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ να καταγράψει χαµηλÞ ηµέρασ στισ 88,6 µονάδεσ, παρουσιάζοντασ µεγάλη πτώση τησ τάξησ του 5,5%. ΩστÞσο, η κάλυψη του χαµένου εδάφουσ απÞ τη µετοχή τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ στη συνέχεια τησ διαδικασίασ, βοήθησε το ΧΑΚ να περιορίσει,

µερικώσ, τισ µεγάλεσ ενδοσυνεδριακέσ ζηµιέσ του. Τελικά, η αγορά έκλεισε στισ 89,85 µονάδεσ, σε σύγκριση µε 93,78 µονάδεσ στη συνάντηση τησ ∆ευτέρασ, καταγράφοντασ σηµαντικέσ ζηµιέσ τησ τάξησ του 4,19%.

¡∂Àƒπ∫√∆∏∆∞ ™∆√ Ã∞ Σε αρνητικÞ έδαφοσ σε Þλη τη διάρκεια των συναλλαγών κινήθηκε χθεσ ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ στο Χρηµατιστήριο τησ Αθήνασ, µε έκδηλη τη νευρικÞτητα τησ αγοράσ Þσο αναµένονται νέα απÞ το δηµοσιονοµικÞ «µέτωπο» και εξελίξεισ στον τραπεζικÞ κλάδο. Για τον κλάδο των τραπεζών, το ενδιαφέρον επικεντρώθηκε σήµερα στισ ανακοινώσεισ τησ Credit Agricole αναφορικά µε την Εµπορική, ανακοινώσεισ οι οποίεσ παρατείνουν την αγωνία για την έκβαση τησ διαδικασίασ. Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ, που βρέθηκε να υποχωρεί σε ποσοστÞ έωσ και 2,33%, έκλεισε τελικά στισ 631,41 µονάδεσ µε απώλειεσ 2,27%. Σε αρνητικÞ έδαφοσ, τισ µεγαλύτερεσ πιέσεισ δέχθηκαν οι Τρ. Κύπρου και Alpha Bank υποχωρώντασ 6,99% και 5,04%, ενώ µε απώλειεσ 4,90% στα 1,36 ευρώ ακολούθησε η ΕΤΕ.

και να ενδυναµώσει την ανάκαµψη,» τονίζει ο πρÞεδροσ τησ Fed στην επιστολή του. Και µέσα σε Þλα αυτά αναµένεται σύντοµα η δράση και τησ ΕΚΤ , η οποία αναζητά απεγνωσµένα µια λύση που θα θέσει ένα ανώτατο Þριο στην απÞδοση των οµολÞγων των οφειλετριών χωρών τησ Ευρωζώνησ και θα αποτρέψει την εξάπλωση τησ κρίσησ. Οι πιέσεισ στην ΕΚΤ να καταλήξει σε µια κατάλληλη πρÞταση για την έγχυση µεγαλύτερησ ρευστÞτητασ θα γίνουν πιο έντονεσ τισ επÞµενεσ εβδοµάδεσ καθώσ η Γερµανία παραµένει αναποφάσιστη για το αν θα αποτρέψει την έξοδο τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ την ζώνη του ευρώ. Περαιτέρω τα τελευταία οικονοµικά στοιχεία συµπεριλαµβανοµένων των δεικτών για τη µεταποιητική δραστηριÞτητα καθώσ και την καταναλωτική εµπιστοσύνη, δείχνουν Þτι η Γερµανία αργά αλλά σταθερά έχει αρχίσει να µολύνεται απÞ τα προβλήµατα των ασθενέστερων χωρών τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Τεχνικά το εβδοµαδιαίο σπάσιµο του 1,24 έχει ανοίξει τον δρÞµο για τα 1,26 – 1,28 επίπεδα τα οποία θεωρούνται πολύ σηµαντικά για την βραχυπρÞθεσµη τάση τησ ισοτιµίασ. Αν τα επίπεδα αυτά υποχωρήσουν τÞτε και η βραχυπρÞθεσµη πτωτική τάση τησ ισοτιµίασ θα ανατραπεί. Πράγµα που δεν θα είναι εύκολο αφού τα προβλήµατα τησ Ευρωζώνησ αναµένεται να γιγαντωθούν µέσα στο φθινÞπωρο. ΑπÞ την άλλη Þµωσ µε τÞσεσ πολιτικοοικονοµικέσ εξελίξεισ και ζυµώσεισ στο προσκήνιο και µε την µεταβλητÞτητα να κτυπάει και πάλι κÞκκινο Þλα πλέον είναι πιθανά.

™ÙÔ 3,38% ÙÔ ‰ËÌÔÛÈÔÓÔÌÈÎfi ¤ÏÏÂÈÌÌ· Στο 3,38% του Ακαθάριστου Εγχώριου ΠροϊÞντοσ (ΑΕΠ) διαµορφώθηκε το δηµοσιονοµικÞ έλλειµµα τουσ πρώτουσ επτά µήνεσ του 2012, υποχωρώντασ στα 615,29 εκατοµµύρια ευρώ, σε σύγκριση µε έλλειµµα 4,42% του ΑΕΠ το αντίστοιχο επτάµηνο του 2011, σύµφωνα µε τα στοιχεία που δηµοσιοποίησε το Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών. Τα έσοδα αυξήθηκαν στο επτάµηνο του 2012 κατά 2,97%, σε σύγκριση µε την αντίστοιχη περσινή περίοδο, ενώ οι δαπάνεσ µειώθηκαν κατά 1,97%. ΕιδικÞτερα, το δηµοσιονοµικÞ έλλειµµα διαµορφώθηκε την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου - Ιουλίου του 2012 στα 615,29 εκατοµµύρια ευρώ, σε σύγκριση µε έλλειµµα 785,47 εκ. ευρώ την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2011, παρουσιάζοντασ µείωση 170,18 εκ. ευρώ. Τα έσοδα αυξήθηκαν κατά την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου Ιουλίου του 2012 κατά 2,97% ή κατά 101 εκ. ευρώ, φθάνοντασ στα 3,50 δισεκατοµµύρια ευρώ, σε σύγκριση µε 3,40 δισ. ευρώ την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2011, ενώ οι δηµÞσιεσ δαπάνεσ µειώθηκαν κατά 1,97% ή κατά 84 εκ. ευρώ, υποχωρώντασ στα 4,16 δισ. ευρώ, απÞ 4,24 δισ. ευρώ τουσ πρώτουσ επτά µήνεσ του 2011. Τα φορολογικά έσοδα αυξήθηκαν τουσ πρώτουσ επτά µήνεσ του τρέχοντοσ έτουσ κατά 3,46%, στα 3,08 δισ. ευρώ, απÞ 2,98 δισ. ευρώ την ίδια περίοδο του 2011, µε τα έσοδα απÞ άµεσουσ φÞρουσ να καταγράφουν σηµαντική αύξηση 11,28% και να ανέρχονται στο 1,05 δισ. ευρώ, απÞ 944,81 εκ. ευρώ, και τα έσοδα απÞ έµµεσουσ φÞρουσ να αυξάνονται κατά 0,48%, στο 1,43 δισ. ευρώ, σε σύγκριση µε τουσ πρώτουσ επτά µήνεσ του 2011.

29 ΑΥΓΟΥΣΤOY, 2012


ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3/15

ÀÔ˘ÚÁÂ›Ô ∂ÛˆÙÂÚÈÎÒÓ Î·È ¿‰ÂȘ ÌfiÓÈÌ˘ ·Ú·ÌÔÓ‹˜ ∞¡∆ø¡∏™ §√π∑√À ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘

Μπράβο στην κυρία Ελένη Μαύρου για την πρÞσφατη απÞφαση τησ να επιταχύνει τισ διαδικασίεσ και να ξεκαθαρίσει τα κριτήρια για παραχώρηση τησ άδειασ µετανάστευσησ/παραχώρησησ άδειασ µÞνιµησ κατοίκησησ σε πολίτεσ εκτÞσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ. Οι οδηγίεσ αυτέσ (κατά τα ΜΜΕ) χρειάζονται κάποιεσ διευκρινίσεισ, τισ οποίεσ παραθέτουµε πιο κάτω: (α) Ο αιτητήσ είναι σε θέση να αποδείξει Þτι έχει στη διάθεση του εξασφαλισµένο ετήσιο εισÞδηµα ύψουσ τουλάχιστον 30.000 ευρώ, το οποίο αυξάνεται κατά 5.000 ευρώ κάθε εξαρτώµενο πρÞσωπο. Υποθέτουµε εδώ Þτι ο αιτητήσ θα µπορούσε να φέρει εκτÞσ απÞ τα παιδιά του (κάτω απÞ 18 ετών) και τουσ γονείσ του, εάν είναι και αυτοί εξαρτώµενοι απÞ αυτÞν (πχ. µεγάλησ ηλικίασ ή εάν ο πατέρασ πέθανε να φέρει την µητέρα του). ΧρειαζÞµαστε επίσησ ξεκαθάρισµα εάν µπορεί και εκτÞσ απÞ τον πατέρα/µητέρα ο αιτητήσ να φέρει και την µητέρα/πατέρα τησ γυναίκασ του, εάν είναι και αυτοί εξαρτώµενοι. (β) αιτητήσ καταθέτει µε την αίτηση τίτλο ιδιοκτησίασ ή αγοραπωλητήριο έγγραφο που κατατέθηκε στο ΚτηµατολÞγιο για κατοικία ή άλλη οικοδοµή αξίασ 300.000 ευρώ τουλάχιστον και επίσηµεσ αποδείξεισ για την εξÞφληση ποσού 200.000 ευρώ τουλάχιστον. Έχει τώρα προστεθεί εκτÞσ απÞ την κατοικία και «άλλη οικοδοµή». ΑυτÞ Þµωσ δεν αντιβαίνει την νοµοθεσία για αγορά απÞ αλλοδαπούσ ακίνητα εκτÞσ κατοικίασ, αλλά κτίριο – πχ. καταστήµατα, γραφεία κλπ; (γ) Ο αιτητήσ υποβάλλει βεβαίωση απÞ κυπριακή τράπεζα Þτι έχει καταθέσει σε λογαριασµÞ του ποσÞ τουλάχιστον 30.000 ευρώ, το οποίο θα είναι δεσµευµένο για περίοδο τριών ετών τουλάχιστον.Το ποσÞ αυτÞ και το ετήσιο εισÞδηµα θα πρέπει να προέρχεται απÞ το εξωτερικÞ Ξεκάθαρο. (δ) Ο αιτητήσ πρέπει να υποβάλει βεβαίωση λευκού ποινικού µητρώου απÞ την πατρίδα του και γενικÞτερα να µην αποτελεί µε οποιοδήποτε τρÞπο απειλή κατά τησ δηµÞσιασ τάξησ ή τησ δηµÞσιασ ασφάλειασ. Ξεκάθαρο, αλλά ίσωσ να αντιµετωπίσει πρÞβληµα ο αιτητήσ απÞ την χώρα του «γιατί το θέλει αυτÞ κλπ». Παροµοίωσ για την άδεια εξαγωγήσ απÞ την χώρα του συναλλάγµατοσ. (ε) Ο αιτητήσ θα βεβαιώνει Þτι δεν προτίθεται να απασχολείται µε οποιονδήποτε άµεσο ή έµµεσο τρÞπο εντÞσ τησ Κύπρου. ΚαθαρÞ µεν αλλά ίσωσ να µπορεί να κάνει µια υπεράκτια εταιρεία µέσω nominees και να εισπράττει το µέρισµα; Ùπωσ πχ. εάν αγοράσει µετοχέσ Κυπριακών εταιρειών; Στην περίπτωση που θα προσπαθήσει ο ίδιοσ να κάνει εταιρεία και ωσ εκ τούτου χρειάζεται άδεια (ε), τÞτε χάνει αυτÞµατα την άδεια παραµονήσ του (στ); (ζ) Ο αιτητήσ πρέπει να επισκέπτεται την Κύπρο τουλάχιστον µια

φορά κάθε δύο χρÞνια. Πολύ καλÞ µια και που µε µια επίσκεψη µιασ ηµέρασ θα τον καλύπτει. (η) ΘετικÞσ τρÞποσ εξέτασησ. Ο θεÞσ να µασ φυλάει κυρία Μαύρου, διÞτι παρÞµοιο «θετικÞ τρÞπο» µασ διαβεβαίωσαν και οι τÞτε τησ Πολεοδοµίασ για την πολεοδοµική αµνηστία και για την απÞσυρση τουριστικών κλινών και µÞνο θετικÞσ τρÞποσ η εξέταση απÞ τουσ υφιστάµενουσ σασ δεν είναι (θα σασ παρουσιάσουµε απτά παραδείγµατα και µε αριθµούσ φακέλων επί του θέµατοσ, διÞτι πιστέψαµε στον «θετικÞ τρÞπο», Þχι διÞτι ο κ. Συλικιώτησ είχε λάθοσ, αλλά οι ∆ηµÞσιοι υπάλληλοι έχουν άλλεσ προσεγγίσεισ. (θ) Μπορεί ο αλλοδαπÞσ αυτÞσ να ενοικιάζει το σπίτι του για εισÞδηµα Þταν δεν είναι στην Κύπρο; Χρήζει ξεκαθαρίσµατοσ. Σε περίπτωση άλλου κτιρίου; Το µέτρο αυτÞ το οποίο εισήχθη το έτοσ 2007 δεν του δώσαµε ωσ πολιτεία καµία βαρύτητα, διÞτι τÞτε ήταν Þλα ρÞδινα και δεν είχαµε ανάγκη. Τώρα τα πράγµατα είναι διαφορετικά και έχουµε ανάγκη τέτοιεσ πρωτοβουλίεσ που φέρνουν ξένο συνάλλαγµα. Υπάρχει Þντωσ µια αυξηµένη ζήτηση απÞ αιτητέσ που προέρχονται κυρίωσ απÞ τισ γειτονικέσ Αραβικέσ χώρεσ και πρώην ανατολικέσ και τώρα ιδιαίτερα απÞ την Κίνα. Είναι αντιληπτÞ Þτι τÞσο ο Καναδάσ, Þσο και η Μάλτα έχουν περιορίσει τισ άδειεσ αυτήσ τησ µÞνιµησ παραµονήσ (και αντιλαµβανÞµαστε επίσησ και η Ισπανία) µε αποτέλεσµα να υπάρχει µια στροφή προσ την Κύπρο. Αυτέσ οι χώρεσ που αντέγραψαν το δικÞ µασ σχέδιο, έχουν ικανοποιήσει τισ οικονοµικέσ τουσ ανάγκεσ και είναι λογικÞ Þτι και η Κύπροσ, το µέτρο αυτÞ, δεν θα διατηρήσει πάντοτε. Παραµένουν πρÞσθετα αδιευκρίνιστα σηµεία Þπωσ πληροφορηθήκαµε απÞ τα ΜΜΕ (πχ. άτοµο µε µÞνιµη άδεια παραµονήσ εάν µπορεί να ταξιδεύσει στισ χώρεσ τησ Ε.Ε.). Κατά τα ΜΜΕ µπορεί να ταξιδέψει σε άλλεσ χώρεσ τησ Ε.Ε. και για διάστηµα 90 ηµερών (κατά άλλουσ είναι αδύνατον η Κύπροσ να δεσµεύσει την Ε.Ε. µε τισ δικέσ τησ βίζεσ). Άρα χρειάζεται και εδώ ξεκαθάρισµα. Ùσον αφορά δε για απαντήσεισ φίλτατη κυρία Μαύρου σε 1-2 µήνεσ, επιτρέψετε µου να σασ στενοχωρήσω Þτι αυτÞ µε την ∆ηµÞσια υπηρεσία που έχουµε, είναι αδύνατον. Ίσωσ καλύτερα να υιοθετήσετε ένα πιο εφικτÞ επίπεδο 3-4 µήνεσ (για να µην εκτεθούµε στουσ ξένουσ). Η µπάλα λοιπÞν βρίσκεται στο δικÞ σασ γήπεδο και χρειάζεται πρÞσθετο ξεκαθάρισµα, αλλά αναθέστε την διαδικασία αυτή τησ έγκρισησ ή Þχι, είτε σε άτοµα αξιÞλογα τησ υπηρεσίασ σασ, ή ακÞµη απευθυνθείτε στον CIPA ή άλλο ιδιωτικÞ οργανισµÞ να εξετάζει τισ αιτήσεισ. Το θέµα είναι πολύ σοβαρÞ για να ανατίθενται τέτοια θέµατα στουσ αδιάφορουσ. Τελειώνοντασ και «για να παινέψουµε το δικÞ µασ σπίτι» Þλη αυτή η εξέλιξη είναι το αποτέλεσµα του σεµιναρίου µασ τησ 30.11.2011 σχετικÞ µε το πιο πάνω θέµα µε συµµετέχοντεσ εκτÞσ των 250 ατÞµων, του CIPA και ατÞµων του Υπουργείου Εσωτερικών (µετά απÞ 1,5 χρÞνο προσπάθειεσ και προειδοποιήσεισ Þτι Þλο το σύστηµα νοσούσε). Μπράβο σασ λοιπÞν για τέτοιεσ αποφάσεισ και θα επανέλθουµε για την διαδικασία έκδοσησ Κυπριακού ∆ιαβατηρίου, διÞτι και εδώ χρειάζονται διευκρινίσεισ.

™Ùfi¯Ô˜ ÙÔ 1 ÂÎ. ˘ÔÁڷʤ˜ Εννέα συνολικά προτάσεισ έχουν καταθέσει οι Ευρωπαίοι πολίτεσ στην Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή ζητώντασ τησ να υποβάλει νοµοθετική πρÞταση για υιοθέτηση νÞµων πάνω σε διάφορα θέµατα. ΑπÞ την 1η Απριλίου που ισχύει η Πρωτοβουλία Ευρωπαίων Πολιτών, οι πολίτεσ απέκτησαν µια νέα δυνατÞτητα να επηρεάζουν την Ατζέντα τησ ΕΕ. Οι δε εµπνευστέσ τουσ ελπίζουν να συγκεντρώσουν το 1 εκατοµµύριο υπογραφέσ που απαιτούνται για να καλέσουν την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή να υποβάλει νοµοθετική πρÞταση. Μεταξύ των θεµάτων είναι τα προγράµµατα ανταλλαγών νέων, η πρÞσβαση στο νερÞ και τα πειράµατα πάνω σε ζώα. Η Πρωτοβουλία Πολιτών καθιερώθηκε µε τη Συνθήκη τησ ΛισαβÞνασ και δίνει στουσ κατοίκουσ τησ ΕΕ που έχουν δικαίωµα ψήφου στισ ευρωεκλογέσ το δικαίωµα να έχουν τη δική τουσ λέξη για την Ατζέντα τησ ΕΕ. Σύµφωνα µε την Συνθήκη τησ ΛισσαβÞνασ, για να εξετασθεί, µια πρωτοβουλία πρέπει να υποστηριχθεί απÞ τουλάχιστον ένα εκατοµµύριο πολίτεσ τησ ΕΕ, απÞ τουλάχιστον επτά εκ των 27 κρατών µελών, εντÞσ 12 µηνών απÞ την ηµέρα καταχώρησήσ τησ. Η Επιτροπή δεν είναι υποχρεωµένη να υποβάλει νοµοθετική πρÞταση, οφείλει Þµωσ να εξηγήσει το γιατί. Εάν η Επιτροπή υποβάλει πρÞταση, αυτή θα ακολουθήσει την κανονική νοµοθετική διαδικασία, που σηµαίνει συνήθωσ Þτι θα εξετασθεί απÞ το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Κοινοβούλιο και το Συµβούλιο προτού γίνει νÞµοσ.

29 ΑΥΓΟΥΣΤOY, 2012


4/16 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

ŸÛ· Ú¤ÂÈ Ó· ÁÓˆÚ›˙ÂÙ ÁÈ· Ù· ÔÌfiÏÔÁ· Î·È Ù· ·ÍÈfiÁÚ·Ê· °πøƒ°√™ £∂√Ã∞ƒπ¢∏™ Associate Professor of Finance at the Cyprus International Institute of Management and Director of MSc in Finance & Banking Programme

ΛÞγω τησ οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ που επικρατεί σε τοπικÞ και παγκÞσµιο επίπεδο κατά τα τελευταία µερικά χρÞνια, το ευρύ κοινÞ βοµβαρδίζεται συνέχεια απÞ διάφορα έντυπα και ηλεκτρονικά µέσα ενηµέρωσησ (εφηµερίδεσ, τηλεÞραση, ραδιÞφωνο, διαδικτυακέσ ιστοσελίδεσ, κ.λπ.), µε εντυπωσιακούσ χρηµατοοικονοµικούσ Þρουσ, που δεν αναµένεται απÞ τον καθένα να γνωρίζει και να κατανοεί τι ακριβώσ σηµαίνουν ή τι αντιπροσωπεύουν στην πράξη. Νοµίζω Þτι είναι καιρÞσ Þµωσ Þλοι µασ να αρχίσουµε να µαθαίνουµε καλύτερα τα βασικά των χρηµατοοικονοµικών θεµάτων και να γίνουµε περισσÞτερο γνώστεσ των θεµάτων αυτών που έχουν µπει για καλά στη ζωή των Κυπρίων. Για αυτÞ και ο σκοπÞσ αυτού του άρθρου είναι να παρουσιάσει και να επεξηγήσει Þσο πιο απλά γίνεται τα κύρια χαρακτηριστικά των χρεωστικών τίτλων, ξεκινώντασ απÞ την πιο απλή µορφή και προχωρώντασ στα πιο πολύπλοκα αξιÞγραφα. Ο πιο βασικÞσ τύποσ χρεωστικού τίτλου είναι η απλή έκδοση οµολÞγων σταθερού επιτοκίου (fixed-rate bond). Στην ουσία, ο τίτλοσ

αυτÞσ είναι µια σύµβαση µεταξύ του κατÞχου (αγοραστή) και του εκδÞτη (πωλητή) Þπου ο κάτοχοσ δανείζει χρήµατα και σε αντάλλαγµα λαµβάνει ισÞποσεσ περιοδικέσ πληρωµέσ (τοκοµερίδια), καθώσ και το αρχικÞ του ποσÞ (το κεφάλαιο) κατά τη λήξη τησ σύµβασησ. Οι πληρωµέσ των τÞκων γίνονται συνήθωσ δύο φορέσ το χρÞνο και ο εκδÞτησ (ο δανειζÞµενοσ) µπορεί να είναι η κυβέρνηση, τράπεζεσ και άλλεσ εταιρείεσ ή οργανισµοί. Τα οµÞλογα µπορεί να έχουν βραχυπρÞθεσµη διάρκεια απÞ 1, 3, 6, ή 12 µήνεσ (bills), µέση διάρκεια απÞ 2, 5 και 10 έτη (notes), ή ακÞµη και µεγαλύτερη διάρκεια άνω των 10 ετών (bonds). Η συχνÞτητα και η διάρκεια τησ έκδοσησ εξαρτώνται απÞ τισ χρηµατοδοτικέσ ανάγκεσ που έχει ο εκδÞτησ. ΕκδÞσεισ µπορεί να είναι χωρίσ εγγύηση, εξασφαλισµένεσ µε κάποιασ µορφήσ επιπρÞσθετη ασφάλεια ή να είναι εγγυηµένεσ απÞ τρίτα µέρη. Ασ σηµειωθεί επίσησ Þτι ο κίνδυνοσ τησ έκδοσησ θα εξαρτηθεί απÞ το ποιοσ είναι ο εκδÞτησ, ποια είναι η διάρκειά τησ, αν είναι τιτλοποιηµένα ή Þχι τα οµÞλογα ή εάν έχει οποιαδήποτε άλλα ειδικά χαρακτηριστικά γνωρίσµατα που µπορεί να δηµιουργήσουν επιπλέον κίνδυνο. Ένασ άλλοσ τύποσ χρεωστικού τίτλου είναι τα οµÞλογα κυµαινÞµενου επιτοκίου (floating-rate bonds). Ùπωσ βγαίνει απÞ την ονοµασία, το τοκοµερίδιο των οµολÞγων αυτών δεν είναι σταθερÞ, αλλά βασίζεται σε ένα γενικÞ κυµαινÞµενο επιτÞκιο, π.χ. το έξι µηνών διατραπεζικÞ επιτÞκιο δανεισµού του

Λονδίνου (Libor) ή το επιτÞκιο αναφοράσ για το Ευρώ (Euribor). Προφανώσ, αυτÞ το γεγονÞσ δηµιουργεί µια άλλη πηγή κινδύνου, αφού οι πληρωµέσ των τÞκων στο µέλλον θα εξαρτώνται απÞ το επίπεδο αυτού του κυµαινÞµενου επιτοκίου. Ορισµένα οµÞλογα, τα οµÞλογα µηδενικού επιτοκίου, (zero-coupon bonds) εκδίδονται επίσησ χωρίσ πληρωµέσ τοκοµεριδίων αλλά προσφέρονται µε έκπτωση απÞ την ονοµαστική τουσ αξία. Συνήθωσ, αυτή είναι η πρακτική που ακολουθείται για τα βραχυπρÞθεσµα αξιÞγραφα. Οι οργανισµοί µπορούν επίσησ να εκδώσουν µετατρέψιµα οµÞλογα (convertible bonds). Τα οµÞλογα αυτά παρέχουν στον κάτοχο την επιλογή να τα µετατρέψουν σε συνήθεισ µετοχέσ τησ εταιρείασ σε µια προκαθορισµένη περίοδο στο µέλλον, χρησιµοποιώντασ ένα προκαθορισµένο δείκτη µετατροπήσ. ΑκÞµη ένασ δηµοφιλήσ χρεωστικÞσ τίτλοσ τον οποίο οι εταιρείεσ τείνουν να εκδίδουν είναι το εξαργυρώσιµο οµÞλογο (callable bond), δηλαδή το οµÞλογο που δίδει το δικαίωµα στον εκδÞτη να εξαγοράζει (ανακαλεί) το οµÞλογο απÞ τον κάτοχο πριν απÞ τη λήξη. Το αντίθετο του εξαγοράσιµου οµολÞγου είναι οµÞλογο το οποίο δικαιούνται να αποπληρώσουν ή να πωλήσουν πρÞωρα οι οµολογιούχοι και Þχι οι εκδÞτεσ (puttable bond). Η έκδοση αυτή δίδει το δικαίωµα στον κάτοχο να επιστρέψει (πωλήσει) το οµÞλογο στον εκδÞτη σε ένα προκαθορισµένο χρονικÞ διάστηµα στο µέλλον, και σε µια προκαθορι-

σµένη τιµή εξαγοράσ. Ùπωσ συµβαίνει και µε οποιοδήποτε άλλο είδοσ επένδυσησ, τα χρεÞγραφα είναι εκτεθειµένα στον πληθωρισµÞ. Οι πληρωµέσ τοκοµεριδίων και αρχικού κεφαλαίου που θα λάβει στο µέλλον ο επενδυτήσ δεν θα έχουν την ίδια αγοραστική δύναµη. Για την προστασία του επενδυτή απÞ τον κίνδυνο του πληθωρισµού, ορισµένεσ κυβερνήσεισ (π.χ. των ΗΠΑ και του Ηνωµένου Βασιλείου) εκδίδουν οµÞλογα των οπoίων οι πληρωµέσ τοκοµεριδίων και κεφαλαίου προσαρµÞζονται σε κάθε περίοδο µε το αντίστοιχο ποσοστÞ του πληθωρισµού (index-linked bonds). Τέλοσ, ένα άλλο σηµαντικÞ χαρακτηριστικÞ είναι η διάταξη τοκοχρεολυτικού κεφαλαίου που µπαίνει σε ορισµένα οµÞλογα (sinking fund provision). ΑυτÞ σηµαίνει Þτι ένα µέροσ του αρχικού ποσού περιοδικά αποσύρεται πριν απÞ την ηµεροµηνία λήξησ, γεγονÞσ που προσθέτει άλλο ένα στρώµα προστασίασ του κατÞχου (Þτι δεν είναι υποχρεωµένοσ να περιµένει µέχρι την ηµεροµηνία λήξησ για να λάβει πίσω το αρχικÞ κεφάλαιο). Ùπωσ σηµειώθηκε και στην αρχή, το άρθρο αυτÞ αποτελεί µια προσπάθεια να παρουσιαστούν και να επεξηγηθούν µερικά απÞ τα βασικά χαρακτηριστικά των χρεωστικών τίτλων. Πιστεύω Þτι, δεδοµένησ τησ κρίσησ που βιώνουµε, είναι σηµαντικÞ, θα έλεγα αναγκαίο, για τουσ απλούσ πολίτεσ να κατανοήσουν πλήρωσ τα βασικά χαρακτηριστικά αυτού του τύπου των χρεωστικών τίτλων.

∂› Ù¿ËÙÔ˜ ÙÔ ¶ÔÏ˘ÂÙ¤˜ ¢ËÌÔÛÈÔÓÔÌÈÎfi ¶Ï·›ÛÈÔ Το Πολυετέσ ∆ηµοσιονοµικÞ Πλαίσιο (Π∆Π) θα είναι στο επίκεντρο τησ άτυπησ συνάντησησ των Υπουργών και Υφυπουργών Ευρωπαϊκών Υποθέσεων που συνέρχονται αύριο Πέµπτη στη Λευκωσία, στο πλαίσιο τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ του Συµβουλίου τησ ΕΕ. ΠρÞκειται ουσιαστικά για την πρώτη συνάντηση µετά την ανάπαυλα του Αυγούστου και µετά τον πρώτο µήνα τησ προεδρίασ. Ο ΕκπρÞσωποσ τησ Προεδρίασ Κώστασ Γεννάρησ επισηµαίνει Þτι ο Σεπτέµβρησ έχει ένα πλήρεσ πρÞγραµµα δραστηριοτήτων και γενικά θα είναι και ο πιο βαρυφορτωµένοσ µήνασ απÞ πλευράσ Άτυπων Συναντήσεων Υπουργών στη Κύπρο, αφού θα γίνουν έξι συνολικά συναντήσεισ Υπουργών. Η συνάντηση τησ 30ησ Αυγούστου κρίνεται ωσ ιδιαιτέρωσ σηµαντική για τισ εξελίξεισ των διαπραγµατεύσεων για το Π∆Π και την επίτευξη συµφωνίασ µέχρι το τέλοσ του έτουσ, που αποτελεί στÞχο τησ EE µε βάση

και την εντολή του Ευρωπαϊκού Συµβουλίου. Σύµφωνα µε τον κ. Γεννάρη, στισ Βρυξέλλεσ, οι εργασίεσ θα επανέλθουν στουσ κανονικούσ ρυθµούσ, µε πληθώρα συναντήσεων των Οµάδων Εργασίασ στισ οποίεσ προεδρεύει η Κύπροσ και τησ COREPER. Τα άτυπα συµβούλια, καθώσ και άλλεσ συναντήσεισ σχετίζονται και µε τισ εξελίξεισ τÞσο σε παγκÞσµιο και περιφερειακÞ διπλωµατικÞ επίπεδο, Þσο και σε επίπεδο των άλλων µεγάλων προκλήσεων, Þπωσ είναι η οικονοµική κρίση, που καθορίζουν τη διεθνή ατζέντα αυτή την περίοδο. Ùπωσ επισηµαίνει ο κ. Γεννάρησ, ξεχωρίζει η άτυπη συνάντηση των Υπουργών Εξωτερικών (γνωστή και ωσ GYMNICH) που θα γίνει παρουσία τησ ΒαρÞνησ Κάθριν Άστον, Ύπατησ Εκπροσώπου τησ ΕΕ για θέµατα εξωτερικήσ πολιτικήσ και πολιτικήσ ασφάλειασ. Η σηµασία του συµβουλίου αυτού κορυφώνεται Þσο κλιµακώνεται η κρίση στη

¢ˆÚÂ¿Ó ËÏÂÎÙÚÔÓÈΤ˜ ‚›˙˜ ·fi ∫‡ÚÔ Û √˘ÎÚ·ÓÔ‡˜ Συµφωνία µε τη Λευκωσία για τη χορήγηση δωρεάν ηλεκτρονικών θεωρήσεων διαβατηρίου σε Ουκρανούσ πολίτεσ επιτεύχθηκε, σύµφωνα µε τον ΟυκρανÞ ΥπουργÞ Εξωτερικών Κονσταντίν Γκρίσενκο. «Είναι το πρώτο θετικÞ τησ νέασ εργασιακήσ σεζÞν, πετύχαµε καταρχήν συµφωνία για τη φιλελευθεροποίηση του καθεστώτοσ θεωρήσεων µε την Κύπρο», είπε ο Γκρίσενκο, εξηγώντασ Þτι η απλοποίηση τησ διαδικασίασ έγκειται στο Þτι οι αιτήσεισ θα µπορούν να γίνονται ηλεκτρονικά. «Στην Πρεσβεία δεν θα χρειάζεται να πηγαίνει

κανείσ, η βίζα θα είναι ηλεκτρονική και δωρεάν», εξήγησε ο ΟυκρανÞσ ΥπουργÞσ. Η διαδικασία αυτή κατά τον ΥπουργÞ θα τεθεί σε ισχύ απÞ τον Σεπτέµβριο και συνεχίζοντασ τισ σχετικέσ προσπάθειεσ τησ ουκρανικήσ Κυβέρνησησ, που απλοποίησε πρÞσφατα το καθεστώσ έκδοσησ θεωρήσεων µε την Πολωνία, τη Λετονία, τη Λιθουανία και τη Σλοβακία. Φέρεται να διευκρινίστηκε Þτι η νέα ρύθµιση ισχύει για βίζεσ µίασ εισÞδου και διαµονήσ Þχι περισσÞτερων απÞ 90 ηµέρεσ.

Συρία και ιδιαίτερο ενδιαφέρον επιδεικνύουν τα ξένα µέσα ενηµέρωσησ. Το Σεπτέµβριο είναι προγραµµατισµένεσ επίσησ άτυπεσ συναντήσεισ των Υπουργών τησ Ευρωζώνησ και των Υπουργών ECOFIN, τισ οποίεσ θα απασχολήσουν οι πρÞσφατεσ εξελίξεισ στην Ευρωζώνη και η δηµιουργία τησ τραπεζικήσ ένωσησ. Το Σεπτέµβριο θα πραγµατοποιηθούν, επίσησ, οι Άτυπεσ συναντήσεισ των Υπουργών Γεωργίασ και Αλιείασ, των Υπουργών Ενέργειασ, των Υπουργών Αθλητισµού και των Υπουργών Άµυνασ.

Την περίοδο αυτή θα πραγµατοποιηθεί επίσησ ∆ιακοινοβουλευτικÞ Συνέδριο για θέµατα κοινήσ εξωτερικήσ πολιτικήσ και κοινήσ πολιτικήσ άµυνασ και ασφάλειασ, συναντήσεισ των διευθυντών υπηρεσιών νεολαίασ και άλλα συνέδρια και ειδικέσ συναντήσεισ. Επίσησ, το Σεπτέµβρη θα πραγµατοποιηθούν τρεισ επίσηµεσ σύνοδοι του Συµβουλίου στισ Βρυξέλλεσ - ∆ικαιοσύνησ και Εσωτερικών Υποθέσεων, Γενικών Υποθέσεων και Γεωργίασ και Αλιείασ- µε σηµαντικά θέµατα στισ ηµερήσιεσ διατάξεισ τουσ Þπωσ, µεταξύ άλλων, το ΚοινÞ ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Σύστηµα Ασύλου, το Πολυετέσ ∆ηµοσιονοµικÞ Πλαίσιο και την Κοινή Αγροτική Πολιτική αντίστοιχα. Η Προεδρία, αναφέρει ο κ. Γεννάρησ, θα συνεχίσει τον ενεργÞ τησ ρÞλο τησ εκπροσώπησησ του Συµβουλίου στα άλλα θεσµικά Þργανα τησ ΕΕ και τισ έντονεσ επαφέσ τησ µε το Ευρωκοινοβούλιο σε Þλα τα επίπεδα.

Laiko-Cosmos Trading Ì ¤ÁÎÚÈÛË ·fi ÙËÓ ∂¶∞ Έγκριση για τη δηµιουργία κοινήσ επιχείρησησ απÞ την Επιτροπή Προστασίασ Ανταγωνισµού Cosmos έλαβαν Trading Ltd και Omilos Laikou Distributors Ltd. Η έγκριση αφορά την ίδρυση τησ εταιρείασ Laiko-Cosmos Trading Ltd και τη συγχώνευση Þλων των εργασιών τουσ, εκτÞσ των καπνικών προϊÞντων, στουσ τοµείσ πωλήσεων και διανοµήσ σε Þλη την Κυπριακή αγορά. Συγκεκριµένα σε συνεδρία που πραγµατοποιήθηκε απÞ την Επιτροπή Προστασίασ Ανταγωνισµού στισ 10

Αυγούστου 2012 και ενεργώντασ σύµφωνα µε τισ διατάξεισ του περί Ελέγχου των Συγκεντρώσεων ΝÞµου (ΝÞµοσ ΑριθµÞσ 22(Ι)/99), Þπωσ έχει τροποποιηθεί, αποφάσισε Þτι η υπÞ αναφορά πράξη συγκέντρωσησ είναι συµβατή µε τισ απαιτήσεισ τησ ανταγωνιστικήσ αγοράσ. Μετά απÞ έγκριση απÞ την Επιτροπή Προστασίασ Ανταγωνισµού, η νέα εταιρεία Laiko-Cosmos Trading Ltd άρχισε την ουσιαστική προετοιµασία τησ εταιρείασ για να είναι πολύ σύντοµα έτοιµη να βγει στην αγορά µε τα προϊÞντα τησ.

29 AΥΓΟΥΣΤΟΥ, 2012


ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5/17

∞‡ÍËÛË 15,7% ÛÙ· ÙÔ˘ÚÈÛÙÈο ¤ÛÔ‰· Αύξηση τησ τάξησ του 15,7% σηµείωσαν τα έσοδα απÞ τον τουρισµÞ τον Ιούνιο του 2012, σύµφωνα µε νεÞτερα στοιχεία τησ Στατιστικήσ Υπηρεσίασ. Συγκεκριµένα, µε βάση τα αποτελέσµατα τησ Ερευνασ Ταξιδιωτών τα έσοδα απÞ τον τουρισµÞ το µήνα Ιούνιο 2012 ανήλθαν σε 254,5 εκ. ευρώ, σε σύγκριση µε 220 εκ. τον αντίστοιχο µήνα του προηγούµενου χρÞνου. Οι αφίξεισ των τουριστών κατά τον ίδιο µήνα έφτασαν τισ 329.977, καταγράφοντασ αύξηση τησ τάξησ του 9,7%, σε σύγκριση µε 300.817 τον αντίστοιχο µήνα του 2011. ΑπÞ το σύνολο των 329.977 τουριστών που έφθασαν στην Κύπρο τον Ιούνιο του 2012, οι 127.747 ήταν απÞ το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, ενώ ακολουθούν η Ρωσία µε 80.145 τουρίστεσ, η Σουηδία µε 19.404, η Ελλάδα µε 13.530, η Νορβηγία µε 11.050 και η Γερµανία µε 10.693.

√∂µ: ™ÙȘ 3 √ÎÙˆ‚Ú›Ô˘ Ù· µÚ·‚›· ∫·ÈÓÔÙÔÌ›·˜ Η Επιτροπή του Κυπριακού Βραβείου Καινοτοµίασ σε συνεδρίεσ τησ αφού αξιολÞγησε Þλεσ τισ αιτήσεισ που είχαν ληφθεί για τον έκτο διαγωνισµÞ του Βραβείου Καινοτοµίασ 2011, αποφάσισε τη βράβευση τριών επιχειρήσεων/υπηρεσιών. Η ανακοίνωση των βραβευθέντων θα γίνει σε ειδική τελετή απονοµήσ του Βραβείου Καινοτοµίασ η οποία θα πραγµατοποιηθεί στισ 3 Οκτωβρίου 2012, και ώρα 5.00 µ.µ. στο Ξενοδοχείο Χίλτον στη Λευκωσία. Κατά την ίδια τελετή θα απονεµηθεί και το Βραβείο Έρευνασ “Νίκοσ Συµεωνίδησ” που διοργανώνει το Ίδρυµα Προώθησησ Έρευνασ. Τα βραβεία έχει προσκληθεί ν’ απονείµει η ΑΕ ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ κοσ ∆ηµήτρησ ΧριστÞφιασ. Σηµειώνεται Þτι η πρωτοβουλία για το διαγωνισµÞ απονοµήσ Κυπριακού Βραβείου Καινοτοµίασ ανήκει στην Οµοσπονδία Εργοδοτών & Βιοµηχάνων (ΟΕΒ) και υλοποιείται µε τη συνεργασία και τη στήριξη τÞσο του Υπουργείου Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού Þσο και του Ιδρύµατοσ Προώθησησ Έρευνασ. Η φετινή τελετή απονοµήσ των Βραβείων Καινοτοµίασ και Έρευνασ έχει τεθεί κάτω απÞ την αιγίδα τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ του Συµβουλίου τησ Ε.Ε.

∫¤Ú‰Ë €2 ÂÎ. ÁÈ· ÙË ¢‹ÌËÙÚ· Κέρδη ανακοίνωσε για το εξάµηνο του 2012 η επενδυτική ∆ήµητρα που έχει πλέον το µισÞ τησ ενεργητικÞ σε µετρητά και ελάχιστα σε µετοχέσ. Τα κέρδη τησ ανήλθαν στα 2,1 εκ. ευρώ έναντι ζηµιών 825,900 ευρώ το εξάµηνο του 2011. Οι ζηµιέσ απÞ χρηµατοοικονοµικά στοιχεία µειώθηκαν στισ 194,400 ευρώ απÞ 3,1 εκ. ευρώ πέρσι. Οι τÞκοι εισπρακτέοι και άλλα χρηµατοδοτικά έσοδα αυξήθηκαν κατά 27,4% στα 2,6 εκ. ευρώ απÞ 2 εκ. ευρώ λÞγω κυρίωσ τησ αύξησησ των τÞκων απÞ καταθέσεισ. Τα µερίσµατα εισπρακτέα µειώθηκαν απÞ 1 εκ. ευρώ σε 190,500 ευρώ λÞγω τησ µείωσησ του χαρτοφυλακίου που είναι επενδυµένο σε µετοχικούσ τίτλουσ και λÞγω τησ µερισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ των δηµοσίων εταιρειών. Τα λειτουργικά έξοδα παρουσίασαν µικρή αύξηση στισ 820,600 ευρώ απÞ 793,200 ευρώ ενώ τα χρηµατοδοτικά έξοδα αυξήθηκαν απÞ 123,600 ευρώ σε 179,200 ευρώ. Το συνολικÞ ενεργητικÞ ανήλθε στα 150 εκ. ευρώ, εκ των οποίων τα 77 εκ. ευρώ είναι σε µετρητά και τα 57 εκ. ευρώ σε ακίνητα. Ùσον αφορά τισ προοπτικέσ, αναφέρεται Þτι τα αποτελέσµατα για το 2012 θα εξαρτηθούν απÞ την πορεία των χρηµατιστηριακών δεκτών στην Κύπρο και το εξωτερικÞ καθώσ επίσησ και απÞ την πορεία των κτηµαταγορών στισ χώρεσ Þπου το ΣυγκρÞτηµα έχει επενδύσει.

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6/18 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

√È °ÂÚÌ·ÓÔ› ‰ÂÓ ı· ÂÁηٷÏ›„Ô˘Ó ÙËÓ ∂˘Úˆ˙ÒÓË Στην προεκλογική περίοδο και στην αβεβαιÞτητα ενÞψει τησ απÞφασησ του Γερµανικού Συνταγµατικού ∆ικαστηρίου για τον ΜÞνιµο ΜηχανισµÞ Στήριξησ, τον ESM, αποδίδει τα αρνητικά σχÞλια που έχουν κατακλύσει την γερµανική πολιτική σκηνή σχετικά µε το εγχείρηµα διάσωσησ του ευρώ, η Deutsche Bank, στην έκθεση τησ υπÞ τον τίτλο «Sceptical tone of debate does not signal euro-fatigue in Germany» (Ο ευρω-σκεπτικισµÞσ στη Γερµανία δεν σηµαίνει κÞπωση των προσπαθειών). Μετά τισ θερινέσ διακοπέσ η Γερµανία κυριαρχείται απÞ τα αρνητικά σχÞλια των πολιτικών σχετικά µε την τρέχουσα κατάσταση τησ διαχείρισησ τησ κρίσησ, ενώ παράλληλα και απÞ τον σκεπτικισµÞ για τισ ιταλικέσ και ισπανικέσ δεσµεύσεισ για µεταρρυθµίσεισ, το µέλλον τησ Ελλάδα στη ζώνη του ευρώ και την αλλαγή τησ πολιτικήσ τησ ΕΚΤ. Η αβεβαιÞτητα σχετικά µε την απÞφαση του Συνταγµατικού ∆ικαστηρίου είναι ρίχνει κι άλλο λάδι στην αβεβαιÞτητα για το αν θα συνεχιστεί η στήριξη τησ Γερµανίασ στο ευρώ. Σύµφωνα µε την Deutsche Bank, αυτή η συζήτηση δεν θα πρέπει να εκληφθεί ωσ ένδειξη αποστασιοποίησησ τησ Γερµανίασ απÞ την προσπάθεια σταθεροποίησησ του ευρώ ή την πραγµατοποίηση περαιτέρω προÞδου για την ένταξη. Αντίθετα, αυτÞ συµβαίνει εξαιτίασ των επικείµενων οµοσπονδιακών εκλογών το φθινÞπωρο του 2013. Η δέσµευση τησ γερµανικήσ κυβέρνησησ παραµένει ισχυρή, αναφέρει η Deutsche Bank, επισηµαίνοντασ Þτι τα άµεσα µέτρα για τη διαχείριση τησ κρίσησ εξακολουθεί να θεωρείται ωσ η κατάλληλη στρατηγική. Ενώ µέχρι τώρα, έχει βρεθεί ένασ κοινÞσ τÞποσ για τον κυβερνητικÞ συνασπισµÞ και τα µεγάλα κÞµµατα τησ αντιπολίτευσησ, η κοινοβουλευτική συνεργασία θα δοκιµαστεί περισσÞτερο εξαιτίασ τησ πολιτικήσ διαµάχησ. Η αντιπολίτευση θα προσπαθήσει να εδραιωθεί

ωσ µια εναλλακτική λύση που παρέχει στην ευρωπαϊκή πολιτική (και άλλα οικονοµικά θέµατα), αν και δεν υπάρχουν διαφορέσ µεταξύ των µερών. Κατ ‘αρχήν και φυσικά η Merkel απολαµβάνει την ευρεία υποστήριξη του εκλογικού σώµατοσ. Επίσησ, ο µικρÞσ εταίροσ του συνασπισµού θα προσπαθήσει να ενισχύσει το προφίλ του, ενώ αναµένεται να υπάρξει µεγάλοσ πολιτικÞσ θÞρυβοσ που µπορεί να αµφισβητηθεί ακÞµη και η εποικοδοµητική στάση τησ Γερµανίασ στην ευρωπαϊκή πολιτική. ∆εδοµένου του κεντρικού ρÞλου τησ Γερµανίασ στην Ευρώπη και στη διαχείριση τησ κρίσησ του ευρώ, οι επικριτέσ τησ χώρασ θα πρέπει να αντιληφθούν τα διάφορα πολιτικά και οικονοµικά θέµατα που επηρεάζουν την γερµανική πολιτική ζωή. Μάλιστα, σύµφωνα µε την DB, οι φωνέσ που ακούγονται απÞ διάφορουσ πολιτικούσ συνδυασµούσ, δεν θα πρέπει να λαµβάνονται υπÞψιν ωσ επίσηµη γραµµή. Ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών W. Schauble έχει δηλώσει Þτι παραµένει απρÞθυµοσ να µιλήσει για πιθανή έξοδο τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ την ζώνη του ευρώ και επέκρινε τουσ υπολογισµούσ των οικονοµολÞγων που θεωρούν ανεκτÞ το κÞστοσ απÞ µια ελληνική έξοδο ωσ µονÞπλευρη. Ενώ η αντίσταση στην επέκταση του ελληνικού προγράµµατοσ φαίνεται να αυξάνεται στην Βουλή, η οποία έχει αντιτεθεί τÞσο για την εκταµίευση των δÞσεων του τρέχοντοσ προγράµµατοσ, Þσο και για την κατανοµή των πρÞσθετων πÞρων για να στηριχθεί η Ελλάδα, η τελική γερµανική θέση δεν αναµένεται να αποφασιστεί πριν τησ έκθεση τησ ΤρÞικα και την απÞφαση απÞ το ΣυνταγµατικÞ ∆ικαστήριο. Η επερχÞµενη απÞφαση του Συνταγµατικού ∆ικαστηρίου στισ 12 Σεπτεµβρίου έχει προκαλέσει σηµαντική νευρικÞτητα στισ αγορέσ. Θα πρέπει να γίνει κατανοητÞ απÞ τουσ ξένουσ παρατηρητέσ, ωστÞσο, Þτι σχε-

ªÂÁ·Ï‡ÙÂÚË ÙÚ¿Â˙· ÛÙÔÓ ÎfiÛÌÔ Ë Deutsche Bank Στην κορυφή του κÞσµου πέρασε η Deutsche Bank, ξεπερνώντασ τη βρετανική HSBC στη βάση των στοιχείων ενεργητικού. Σύµφωνα µε το περιοδικÞ Global Finance, το ενεργητικÞ τησ γερµανικήσ τράπεζασ ανήλθε στα 2,8 τρισεκατοµµύρια δολάρια, ακολουθούµενη απÞ την HSBC µε ενεργητικÞ 2,5 τρισ, ενώ την πρώτη τριάδα συµπληρώνει η γαλλική BNP Paribas µε 2.5 τρισ δολάρια. Στην τέταρτη θέση βρίσκεται η κινεζική Industrial and Commercial Bank of China µε ενεργητικÞ 2,4 τρισ δολάρια, ενώ την πρώτη πεντάδα συµπληρώνει η ιαπωνική Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group µε ενεργητικÞ €2,4 τρισ .

∏ ¯Ïȉ¿ÙË ˙ˆ‹ ÙÔ˘ «ÛÎÏ¿‚Ô˘» ¶Ô‡ÙÈÓ Με τίτλο «Η ζωή ενÞσ σκλάβου σε γαλέρα» η αντιπολίτευση δηµοσίευσε έκθεση για τα παλάτια, τα αεροσκάφη και ελικÞπτερα, τα πολυτελή γιοτ και τα εκατοντάδεσ αυτοκίνητα του Ρώσου προέδρου Μπορεί στο παρελθÞν ο Βλαντιµίρ Πούτιν να είχε δηλώσει Þτι η δουλειά του στο Κρεµλίνο είναι τÞσο σκληρή που συγκρίνεται µε «σκλάβο σε γαλέρα», µπορεί στη φετινή του δήλωση να παρουσίασε εισÞδηµα 3,6 εκατ. ρουβλίων ή 113.000 δολαρίων (συν τρία παλιά αυτοκίνητα και ένα τροχÞσπιτο), ο ηγέτησ τησ αντιπολίτευσησ ΜπÞρισ Νέµτσοφ µαζί µε τον Λεονίντ Μάρτινιουκ περιγράφουν ωστÞσο µία εντελώσ διαφορετική πραγµατικÞτητα. Ετσι, στα πρÞνοµια που απολαµβάνει ο Πούτιν περιλαµβάνονται, µεταξύ άλλων, 20 πολυτελείσ κατοικίεσ, ένα θέρετρο στο ΣÞτσι, δύο ανακαινισµένα παλάτια στη Βαλτική, υπερπολυτελή γιοτ (ένα πέντε επιπέδων µε τζακούζι, µπάρµπεκιου, ξύλινα τµήµατα και επενδύσσεισ απÞ σφένδαµο), 43 αεροσκάφη κάθε µεγέθουσ, 15 ελικÞπερα, 700 αυτοκίνητα (µε ναυαρχίδα την θωρακισµένη του Mercedes) και 11 ρολÞγια συνολικήσ αξίασ 700.000 δολαρίων.

δÞν κάθε κύρωση των µεγάλων ευρωπαϊκών αποφάσεων για το ευρώ απÞ το κοινοβούλιο έχει συνοδευτεί απÞ καταγγελίεσ που κατατέθηκαν στο ΣυνταγµατικÞ ∆ικαστήριο, αλλά το ∆ικαστήριο έχει λάβει µια πιο εποικοδοµητική φιλοευρωπαϊκή προσέγγιση. Έτσι, ακÞµη και αν ο ESM θα πρέπει να θεωρείται σε γενικέσ γραµµέσ σύµφωνοσ µε το γερµανικÞ Σύνταγµα θα δούµε παρÞµοιεσ καταγγελίεσ να συνεχιστούν. ΕκτÞσ απÞ το θέµα του ESM αναµένουµε επίσησ Þτι στα τέλη του 2012 ή στισ αρχέσ του 2013, το ∆ικαστήριο θα εκδώσει κάποιεσ αποφάσεισ σχετικά µε τισ επιπτώσεισ τησ περαιτέρω ευρωπαϊκήσ ολοκλήρωσησ και σε ποιο βαθµÞ το Σύνταγµα µπορεί να επηρεαστεί απÞ τα περαιτέρω βήµατα τησ ευρωπαϊκήσ ολοκλήρωσησ. Παρά το γεγονÞσ Þτι τα µέρη δεν έχουν καθορίσει ακÞµη τισ στρατηγικέσ τουσ κατά την προεκλογική εκστρατεία, η τρέχουσα πολιτική συζήτηση θα επηρεαστεί και απÞ πιο γενικά θέµατα, Þπωσ η φορολογία, η κοινωνι-

κή πολιτική, η αγορά εργασίασ ή ενέργειασ. Ενώ το CDU θα δώσει το βάροσ του σε ζητήµατα που είναι σηµαντικά για την οικονοµία και τισ επιχειρήσεισ, το SPD είναι πιθανÞ να επικεντρωθεί στην κοινωνική δικαιοσύνη και την αυστηρÞτερη ρύθµιση των χρηµατοπιστωτικών αγορών και των τραπεζών. Για πρώτη φορά η ευρωπαϊκή πολιτική και η µελλοντική πορεία τησ ενσωµάτωσησ θα µπορούσε να γίνει το θέµα τησ προεκλογικήσ εκστρατείασ, κάτι που δεν υπήρχε καν στην προεκλογική περίοδο του 1998, πριν δηλαδή την εισαγωγή του ευρώ. Ùµωσ, η βασική στρατηγική δεν θα διαφοροποιηθεί. Ùπωσ και στο παρελθÞν, η Γερµανία προτιµά και επιλέγει “περισσÞτερη Ευρώπη”, αν καθιερωµένεσ πρακτικέσ δεν λειτουργούν πια. Αυτή η στάση έχει επίσησ την ευρεία υποστήριξη των εγχώριων πολιτικών κοµµάτων, των οµάδων συµφερÞντων και τησ κοινήσ γνώµησ. Η οικονοµική κρίση και η χρηµατοδÞτηση των αδύναµων χωρών τησ ευρωζώνησ, είναι σαφέσ Þτι δεν έχει ακÞµη τεθεί υπÞ έλεγχο και θα απαιτήσει πρÞσθετα µέτρα διαχείρισησ κρίσεων. Είναι σαφέσ Þτι η Γερµανία, ακÞµη και µετά τισ εκλογέσ, θα εργαστεί προσ την µεγαλύτερη δηµοσιονοµική, οικονοµική και πολιτική ένωση, ενώ θα ζητήσει και ισχυρÞτερη ρύθµιση των αγορών, σε αντάλλαγµα τησ στήριξησ που προσφέρει. Γι’ αυτÞ το λÞγο, καταλήγει η Deutsche Bank, αντί να διατυπώνονται οι κορώνεσ περί διαχείρισησ τησ διάλυσησ και τησ αποδιοργάνωσησ απÞ το γερµανικÞ πολιτικÞ σώµα, θα πρέπει να εργαστεί προσ «περισσÞτερη Ευρώπη». Πρέπει να πειστεί το εκλογικÞ σώµα, το οποίο είναι ουσιαστικά πιο φιλοευρωπαϊκÞ απÞ άλλα κράτη µέλη, Þτι αυτÞ είναι προσ το συµφέρον τησ Γερµανίασ. Οι προτάσεισ για µεγαλύτερη ενσωµάτωση πρέπει να διατυπώνονται δηµοσίωσ εξ ολοκλήρου απÞ πολλούσ γερµανικούσ και ευρωπαϊκούσ πολιτικέσ φορείσ κατά τη διάρκεια των επÞµενων µηνών.

∆· ‚ÈÔÏÔÁÈο ÙÚfiÊÈÌ· ʤÚÔ˘Ó ϤÔÓ ÂȉÈÎfi Û‹Ì· Ù˘ ∂∂ Ολο και περισσÞτεροι Ευρωπαίοι πολίτεσ προτιµούν να αγοράζουν βιολογικά προϊÞντα. Η αγορά παρουσιάζει σηµαντική άνοδο τα τελευταία χρÞνια, έτσι η ΕΕ αποφάσισε Þπωσ τα συσκευασµένα βιολογικά τρÞφιµα, φέρουν πλέον ειδικÞ σήµα τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ενωσησ. ΠρÞκειται για µια ετικέτα µε ένα χαρακτηριστικÞ πράσινο φύλλο και µε τα αστεράκια τησ ΕΕ. Με αυτÞ τον τρÞπο, οι καταναλωτέσ είναι σίγουροι Þτι το προϊÞν που αγοράζουν είναι πραγµατικά βιολογικÞ. ΑυτÞ σηµαίνει Þτι οι παρασκευαστέσ των τροφίµων -καθώσ και οι αγρÞτεσ απÞ τουσ οποίουσ έλαβαν τα διάφορα συστατικά- τήρησαν τισ αυστηρέσ προδιαγραφέσ τησ ΕΕ για τα βιολογικά τρÞφιµα και ποτά. Γύρω στο 2% των τροφίµων που αγοράζουν οι Ευρωπαίοι καταναλωτέσ έχουν πιστοποιηθεί ωσ βιολογικά, ενώ περίπου 200.000 αγροκτήµατα τησ ΕΕ έχουν λάβει πιστοποίηση βιολογικήσ παραγωγήσ. Οταν χρησιµοποιούν το βιολογικÞ σήµα τησ ΕΕ, οι παραγωγοί πρέπει επίσησ να αναγράφουν στην ετικέτα τον αριθµÞ

αναφοράσ τησ αρχήσ πιστοποίησησ, καθώσ και τα ονÞµατα του παραγωγού και τησ επιχείρησησ τελικήσ επεξεργασίασ και διανοµήσ του προϊÞντοσ. Τα εθνικά σήµατα βιολογικήσ πιστοποίησησ µπορούν επίσησ να χρησιµοποιούνται µαζί µε το σήµα τησ ΕΕ.Το σήµα εξακολουθεί να είναι προαιρετικÞ για τα µη συσκευασµένα ή εισαγÞµενα προϊÞντα. Για να εισαχθούν βιολογικά προϊÞντα απÞ χώρεσ εκτÞσ ΕΕ, πρέπει οι κανÞνεσ για τα βιολογικά προϊÞντα που εφαρµÞζονται απÞ τισ χώρεσ αυτέσ και τισ αρχέσ πιστοποίησήσ τουσ, να έχουν αναγνωριστεί ωσ ισοδύναµοι µε τα ευρωπαϊκά πρÞτυπα. Τα τρÞφιµα µπορούν να χαρακτηρίζονται ωσ βιολογικά µÞνον εάν το 95% των γεωργικών τουσ συστατικών είναι βιολογικά. Απαγορεύεται η χρήση γενετικά τροποποιηµένων οργανισµών (ΓΤΟ) και προϊÞντων που παρασκευάζονται απÞ ΓΤΟ.

¶ÈÛÛ·Ú›‰Ë˜ Î·È ªfiÓÙÈ ÔÈ Î‡ÚÈÔÈ ÔÌÈÏËÙ¤˜ ÛÂ Û˘Ó¤‰ÚÈÔ ÛÙȘ µÚ˘Í¤ÏϘ ΣηµαντικÞ συνέδριο µε θέµα την πολιτική τησ ΕΕ για την απασχÞληση, διοργανώνει η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή το διήµερο 6 και 7 Σεπτεµβρίου στισ Βρυξέλλεσ. Κύριοι οµιλητέσ θα είναι σύµφωνα µε το πρÞγραµµα ο Νοµπελίστασ ΧριστÞφοροσ Πισσαρίδησ και ο ΠρωθυπουργÞσ τησ Ιταλίασ Μάριο ΜÞντι. Το Συνέδριο θα χαιρετίσουν επίσησ ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ΚοµισιÞν Μανουέλ ΜπαρÞζο, ο ΠρÞεδροσ του Ευρωκοινοβουλίου Μάρτιν Σουλτσ, ο ΠρÞεδροσ του Ευρωπαϊκού Συµβουλίου Χέρµαν βαν Ροµπέι και ο ΓΓ του Οργανισµού Οικονοµικήσ Συνεργασίασ και Ανάπτυξησ Χοσέ Ανχελ Γκουρία. Το Συνέδριο, µε τίτλο «Θέσεισ εργασίασ για την Ευρώπη» θα ασχοληθεί µε το πακέτο για την απασχÞληση

που πρÞτεινε η Επιτροπή στισ 18 Απριλίου και για τα αποτελέσµατα του Ευρωπαϊκού Εξαµήνου 2012, αλλά και µε τα αποτελέσµατα µιασ σειράσ συνεδρίων που διοργάνωσε η Επιτροπή κατά τη διάρκεια του 2011, προκειµένου να εξευρεθούν νέεσ πολιτικέσ για την απασχÞληση, κυρίωσ σε Þ,τι αφορά τη λειτουργία των ευρωπαϊκών αγορών εργασίασ, τισ εξελίξεισ στον τοµέα των µισθών και των ανισοτήτων. Στη διάρκεια του Συνεδρίου θα µελετηθούν σε βάθοσ πέντε ενÞτητεσ. 1. ∆ηµιουργία µιασ δυναµικήσ ευρωπαϊκήσ αγοράσ εργασίασ, 2. Ο αντίκτυποσ τησ κρίσησ στην απασχÞληση, 3. Τοµείσ µε υψηλÞ δυναµικÞ δηµιουργίασ θέσεων εργασίασ, 4. Πολιτική απασχÞλησησ καθ `Þλη τη διάρκεια τησ ζωήσ, 5. Πορεία προσ την πλήρη απασχÞληση.

29 ΑΥΓΟΥΣΤOY, 2012


ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7/19

∫Ï›ÓÂÈ ÙÔ «deal» Ì ÙËÓ ∂ÌÔÚÈ΋ ∆Ú¿Â˙· Μέσα στισ επÞµενεσ εβδοµάδεσ θα κλείσει η εξαγορά τησ Emporiki Bank απÞ ελληνική τράπεζα, σύµφωνα µε τον ∆ιευθύνων Σύµβουλο τησ γαλλικήσ µητρικήσ τησ, τησ Credit Agricole.Ο ίδιοσ επισηµαίνει Þτι η CASA θα παραµείνει στο νέο, ελληνικÞ τραπεζικÞ σχήµα µε ποσοστÞ περί το 10% επι του µετοχικού κεφαλαίου. Παράλληλα, το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ Crédit Agricole SA έχει αναγνωρίσει δεÞντωσ τισ δεσµευτικέσ προσφορέσ που υποβλήθηκαν στισ 8 Αυγούστου για την εξαγορά τησ ελληνικήσ θυγατρικήσ τησ Εµπορικήσ . Καµία απÞφαση δεν έχει ληφθεί ακÞµη σχετικά µε την εισαγωγή σε πιο προχωρηµένο στάδιο συνοµιλιών για κάθε µία απÞ τισ προτάσεισ λÞγω των συνεχών συζητήσεων µε την Τράπεζα τησ Ελλάδασ, το ΤΧΣ και την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή σχετικά µε τουσ Þρουσ και τισ προϋποθέσεισ µε τισ οποίεσ η συναλλαγή θα πραγµατοποιηθεί .

∆Ô 50% ÙˆÓ ÎÂÚ‰ÒÓ ı· ‰È·Ó›ÌÂÈ Ô √¶∞¶ Θα διατηρηθεί η µερισµατική πολιτική τησ ΟΠΑΠ µε στÞχο τη διανοµή του 50% των κερδών τησ, τÞνισε ο νέοσ επικεφαλήσ τησ εταιρείασ κ. Κωνσταντίνοσ ΛουρÞπουλοσ κατά την παρουσίαση των αποτελεσµάτων εξαµήνου τησ εισηγµένησ. ΑυτÞ βέβαια στην περίπτωση που η εταιρεία δεν επιβαρυνθεί µε έκτακτη φορολÞγηση για τη φετεινή χρονιά. H µερισµατική πολιτική και τα στρατηγικά σχέδια ανάπτυξησ του ΟΠΑΠ µονοπώλησαν το ενδιαφέρον των επενδυτών και ο νέοσ επικεφαλήσ τησ εταιρείασ ξεκαθάρισε τον στÞχο του να επιστρέψει µέροσ των κεφαλαίων που προορίζονταν για φÞρουσ στουσ µετÞχουσ αν ο ΟΠΑΠ δεν επιβαρυνθεί απÞ έκτακτη φορολογία.Υπενθυµίζεται Þτι για τη χρήση του 2011 ο ΟργανισµÞσ διένειµε µέρισµα ύψουσ 0,72 ευρώ ανά µετοχή, µειωµένο κατά 53% σε σχέση µε το αντίστοιχο ποσÞ για τη χρήση του 2010.

¶ÚÔ¯ˆÚ¿ Ë ·Ó·ÎÂÊ·Ï·ÈÔÔ›ËÛË ÙˆÓ ÂÏÏËÓÈÎÒÓ ÙÚ·Â˙ÒÓ Μέσα στον Σεπτέµβριο εκτιµάται πωσ θα οριστούν πλήρωσ οι Þροι ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ των ελληνικών τραπεζών. Ηδη έχουν ξεκινήσει οι συζητήσεισ στο υπουργείο Οικονοµικών ασφαλώσ υπÞ την καθοδήγηση τησ Τράπεζασ τησ Ελλάδοσ προκειµένου να ολοκληρωθεί η σχετική διαδικασία. Επιθυµία των τραπεζών σε τούτη τουλάχιστον τη φάση αποτελεί το σκέλοσ τησ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ που αφορά στουσ ιδιώτεσ να κινηθεί µέσα στο επÞµενο έτοσ, µάλιστα κάποιοι το προσδιορίζουν περίπου για το δεύτερο τρίµηνο του 2013. Ο λÞγοσ σύµφωνα µε τραπεζικούσ κύκλουσ είναι απλÞσ: θα πρέπει λένε η χώρα να αποµακρυνθεί οριστικά απÞ το «Grexit» προκειµένου να βρεθούν ιδιώτεσ οι οποίοι θα επενδύσουν σε οποιαδήποτε ελληνική αξία. Κάτι τέτοιο επισηµαίνουν πωσ θα έχει διαφανεί έωσ το τέλοσ του έτουσ οπÞτε θα απαιτηθεί άλλο ένα τρίµηνο για την αναζήτηση κεφαλαίων. Νωρίτερα ασφαλώσ θα έχει ολοκληρωθεί η συγκέντρωση των πιστωτικών ιδρυµάτων η οποία ήδη ξεκίνησε Þπωσ µπορεί να έχει ολοκληρωθεί και το τµήµα που αφορά την τοποθέτηση κεφαλαίων απÞ το Ταµείο Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ στο πλαίσιο τησ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ. Εν τω µεταξύ το Ταµείο Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ µέσω τησ Deloitte και τησ Ernst&Young διενεργεί ενδελεχή έλεγχο στα χρηµατοπιστωτικά ιδρύµατα που πρÞκειται να ανακεφαλαιοποιηθούν. Ο έλεγχοσ αυτÞσ έχει σχεδÞν ολοκληρωθεί και τα πορίσµατά του θα είναι έτοιµα περί τα µέσα Σεπτεµβρίου, παρατηρούν έγκυροι τραπεζικοί παράγοντεσ.

™À°∫∂¡∆ƒø™∏ Η ανακεφαλαιοποίηση, Þπωσ σηµειώνουν οι ίδιοι παράγοντεσ, αναµένεται να γίνει µε αιχµή τισ τέσσερισ βιώσιµεσ τράπεζεσ, δηλαδή την ΕΤΕ, την Alpha Bank, την Eurobank

και την Πειραιώσ. Σε αυτέσ εναπÞκειται και ο ρÞλοσ τησ συγκέντρωσησ των λοιπών πιστωτικών ιδρυµάτων τα οποία λειτουργούν στη χώρα και δεν µπορούν κατά µÞνασ να ανακεφαλαιοποιηθούν. Στην παρούσα φάση και µετά την ενσωµάτωση του υγιούσ τµήµατοσ τησ ΑΤΕ απÞ την Πειραιώσ και την εν συνεχεία πώληση τησ Εµπορικήσ, ακολουθεί ένασ αγώνασ δρÞµου για τισ µικρÞτερεσ τράπεζεσ οι οποίεσ επίσησ αναµένεται είτε να συγχωνευθούν µεταξύ τουσ και εν συνεχεία να ακολουθήσει η απÞκτησή τουσ απÞ κάποια απÞ τισ βιώσιµεσ τράπεζεσ είτε να καταλήξουν σε κάποια απÞ τισ βιώσιµεσ τράπεζεσ κατά µÞνασ. Παράλληλα θα πρέπει να ληφθούν αποφάσεισ και για το ΤαχυδροµικÞ Ταµιευτήριο. ΑκÞµη θα πρέπει να σηµειωθεί Þτι οι ανάγκεσ ανακεφαλαιοποίσησ των ελληνικών τραπεζών που συνολικά έχουν υπολογιστεί σε 50 δισ. δολάρια (ήδη έχουν λάβει σήµερα 18 δισ.) µπορεί να αποδειχτούν λίγα σε µία προοπτική που η ύφεση στην ελληνική οικονοµία θα βαθύνει περαιτέρω και οι επισφάλειεσ γίνουν µεγαλύτερεσ. Ùπωσ εξηγούν στην «Η» τραπεζικοί παράγοντεσ, η ανακεφαλαιοποίηση των ελληνικών τραπεζών θα γίνει υπÞ τισ ευλογίεσ τησ τρÞικασ. Επιθυµία συνολικά του χρηµατοπιστωτικού συστήµατοσ τησ Ευρώπησ είναι το κράτοσ να παραµείνει αρωγÞσ στισ τράπεζεσ µÞνον έωσ Þτου αυτέσ µπορούν να ανακτήσουν πλήρωσ µετοχικά τον ιδιωτικÞ έλεγχο.Υπ’ αυτήν την έννοια οι µέριµνεσ τησ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ θα κινηθούν προσ αυτήν την κατεύθυνση και Þχι προσ την κατεύθυνση κρατικοποίησησ των τραπεζών. Αλλωστε αυτÞ είναι φανερÞ και απÞ το γεγονÞσ Þτι οι τράπεζεσ διατηρούν και θα διατηρήσουν το ίδιο µάνατζµεντ σηµειώνουν έγκυροι τραπεζικοί παράγοντεσ. Βεβαίωσ προκειµένου να ανακτηθεί ο πλήρησ µετοχικÞσ έλεγχοσ των πιστωτικών ιδρυµάτων απÞ ιδιώτεσ είναι σαφέσ Þτι θα απαιτηθεί ένα σηµαντικÞ εύροσ χρÞνου το οποίο µπορεί να φθάσει και την πενταετία αναλÞγωσ τησ πορείασ τησ κρίσησ.

29 ΑΥΓΟΥΣΤOY, 2012


8/20 | ΑΓΟΡΑ

M‹ÎÂ Ë ÎÈı¿Ú· ÙÔ˘ Hard Rock Café Γοργά προχωρούν οι διαδικασίεσ για την ολοκλήρωση του πρώτου Hard Rock Café στην Κύπρο. Το εντυπωσιακÞ κτίριο του Hard Rock Café στην Λευκωσία βρίσκεται στα τελευταία στάδια ολοκλήρωσήσ του µε χιλιάδεσ Hard Rockers να αναµένουν απÞ στιγµή σε στιγµή την έναρξη λειτουργίασ του, τÞσο για το πλούσιο και απολαυστικÞ φαγητÞ του, Þσο και για τα µοναδικά προϊÞντα του που θα βάλουν πλέον τη Λευκωσία στον παγκÞσµιο χάρτη των Hard Rock. Το Hard Rock δεν κοιµάται ποτέ! Ξηµερώµατα Κυριακήσ 26 Αυγούστου, µε ειδικÞ γερανÞ, έγινε η εγκατάσταση τησ τεράστιασ κιθάρασ στην πρÞσοψη του κτιρίου! H κιθάρα έχει ύψοσ 10 περίπου µέτρα και είναι οµολογουµένωσ εντυπωσιακή… To Hard Rock Café Nicosia σύντοµα ανοίγει τισ πÞρτεσ τουσ και υπÞσχεται µοναδικέσ εµπειρίεσ σε Þλουσ τουσ επισκέπτεσ του.

∫·ı¤Ó·˜ ÛÙÔÓ ÎfiÛÌÔ ÙÔ˘ Î·È fiÏÔÈ ÛÙË Cytanet Η Cyta προσφέρει τώρα την ευκαιρία σε Þλουσ τουσ συνδροµητέσ τησ υπηρεσίασ Cytanet µε προϊÞν Internet Home να αποκτήσουν ηλεκτρονικέσ συσκευέσ τελευταίασ τεχνολογίασ, σε ειδικέσ τιµέσ και µε ευκολίεσ πληρωµήσ. Οι συνδροµητέσ µπορούν να επιλέξουν το κουπÞνι τησ Cytanet που τουσ ταιριάζει, αξίασ 120, 240 ή 360 ευρώ και να το εξαργυρώσουν µε ηλεκτρονικέσ συσκευέσ, Þπωσ laptops, tablets, IP security cameras, ράδια Wi-Fi και κονσÞλεσ παιγνιδιών. Τα κουπÞνια εξοφλούνται σε 24 δÞσεισ. Η προσφορά ισχύει µέχρι εξαντλήσεωσ των αποθεµάτων ή των κουπονιών, µε µέγιστη διάρκεια τρεισ µήνεσ και µε 24µηνη δέσµευση στα προϊÞντα Internet Home τησ Cytanet. Οι πελάτεσ που θα επωφεληθούν τησ προσφοράσ, θα έχουν την ευκαιρία να λάβουν µέροσ στην κλήρωση για δέκα τηλεοράσεισ 40’. Επίσησ, οι νέοι πελάτεσ που ενδιαφέρονται να αποκτήσουν διαδίκτυο στο σπίτι, µπορούν να επωφεληθούν τησ προσφοράσ για δωρεάν εγκατάσταση στα προϊÞντα Internet Home και DSL Access Home τησ Cytanet, µέχρι το τέλοσ Σεπτεµβρίου.

∫·ÏÔηÈÚÈÓfi ÍÂÊ¿Óو̷ Ì Samsung Galaxy Το Σάββατο 4 Αυγούστου, στο Ammos beach bar, στην παραλία Μακένζι, ένα... Galaxy-ακÞ event ξετρέλανε τουσ παρευρισκÞµενουσ! ΑπÞ τισ 4 µέχρι τισ 6 το απÞγευµα, οι θαµώνεσ του Ammos Beach Bar, είχαν την ευκαιρία να διασκεδάσουν και να χορέψουν σε beat-άτουσ ρυθµούσ και να λάβουν µέροσ στην κλήρωση για κερδίσουν το απίθανο, ολοκαίνουργιο Samsung Galaxy S III. Ανάµεσα σε ένα µεγάλο αριθµÞ συµµετοχών, µεγάλη τυχερή αναδείχθηκε η Άντρη Χριστοφή απÞ τη Λάρνακα που κέρδισε το Samsung Galaxy S ΙΙΙ. ∆ιοργανωτήσ εκδήλωση η Alpan Telcom, επίσηµοσ αντιπρÞσωποσ των κινητών Samsung στην Κύπρο. Σταρ τησ µέρασ το νέο Samsung Galaxy S III µε τετραπύρηνο επεξεργαστή Exynos 1.4GHz, 4.8” Super AMOLED οθÞνη, camera 8 MP και λογισµικÞ Android Ice Cream Sandwich. Το κινητÞ αυτÞ, µε εκατοµµύρια θαυµαστέσ παγκοσµίωσ και πολλά tech blogs και sites να παραµιλούν γι’ αυτÞ, θεωρείται απÞ µεγάλη µερίδα tech κριτικών ωσ το καλύτερο κινητÞ στην αγορά!

√ ™¿Î˘ ƒÔ˘‚¿˜ ÛÙÔ 20Ô ºÂÛÙÈ‚¿Ï °¿Ï·ÎÙÔ˜ Ένα εντυπωσιακÞ µουσικÞ θέαµα γεµάτο ενέργεια και δυναµισµÞ πρÞκειται να παρουσιάσει ο κορυφαίοσ έλληνασ star Σάκησ Ρουβάσ, σε µια µοναδική συναυλία την Παρασκευή 31 Αυγούστου, στο Γήπεδο Χαλκάνωρα ∆ηµήτρησ Χάµατσοσ, στα πλαίσια του 20ου Φεστιβάλ Γάλακτοσ, που παρουσιάζει η εταιρεία Χαραλαµπίδησ Κρίστησ. Η Χαραλαµπίδησ Κρίστησ, η µεγαλύτερη γαλακτοβιοµηχανία τησ Κύπρου στηρίζει εδώ και 20 χρÞνια το θεσµÞ του Φεστιβάλ Γάλακτοσ. Η φετινή διοργάνωση του Φεστιβάλ συµπίπτει χρονικά και µε την ανακοίνωση τησ νέασ επωνυµίασ τησ εταιρείασ Χαραλαµπίδησ Κρίστησ, και την επιστροφή τησ σε Κύπριουσ ιδιοκτήτεσ, γεγονÞσ που ενισχύει την κυπριακή οικονοµία και διασφαλίζει τισ καλύτερεσ προοπτικέσ. Χαραλαµπίδησ και Κρίστησ, δύο ονÞµατα πολύ δυνατά µέσα στο µυαλÞ και στη ψυχή του Κύπριου καταναλωτή, µε παρουσία σχεδÞν σε κάθε σπίτι µέσω των γαλακτοκοµικών προϊÞντων που διαθέτουν στην αγορά. Με σλÞγκαν «Ενωµένοι γινÞµαστε καλύτεροι», η Χαραλαµπίδησ Κρίστησ προετοιµάζει µε ασφάλεια το µέλλον που αξίζουµε. Τιµή Εισιτήριου συναυλίασ: 20 ευρώ για ενήλικεσ, 12 ευρώ για παιδιά έωσ 12 ετών και 60 ευρώ για τισ θέσεισ VIP. Πληροφορίεσ στα τηλέφωνα 99641421 και 99934560.

∆Ú. ∫‡ÚÔ˘: EÓ›Û¯˘ÛË Ù˘ ¶·Ú·ÔÏ˘Ìȷ΋˜ ÔÌ¿‰·˜ Η Τράπεζα Κύπρου στα πλαίσια τησ Εταιρικήσ Κοινωνικήσ τησ Ευθύνησ προχώρησε στην οικονοµική ενίσχυση (ύψουσ 5.000 ευρώ) τησ Κυπριακήσ Εθνικήσ Παραολυµπιακήσ Επιτροπήσ. Η οικονοµική στήριξη έχει διατεθεί για την προετοιµασία τησ Κυπριακήσ Παραολυµπιακήσ οµάδασ για τουσ αγώνεσ του Λονδίνου που αρχίζουν στισ 29 Αυγούστου 2012.

Το ΣυγκρÞτηµα τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου είναι γνωστÞ Þτι µεταξύ άλλων (υγεία, πολιτισµÞσ, παιδεία, οικονοµία) συνεισφέρει πολλά και στον αθλητισµÞ για αυτÞ εξάλλου είναι τα τελευταία χρÞνια ο µέγασ χορηγÞσ τησ Κυπριακήσ Ολυµπιακήσ Επιτροπήσ. Με αυτÞ το σκεπτικÞ προχώρησε στη χορηγία προσ την Κυπριακή Εθνική Παραολυµπιακή Επιτροπή. ΠρÞκειται για µια χορηγία που σκοπÞ έχει να ενισχύσει την προσπάθεια των αθλητών µασ έτσι ώστε να πετύχουν µια δυναµική παρουσία στουσ Παραολυµπιακούσ Αγώνεσ 2012 που πραγµατοποιούνται στο Λονδίνο. Η Τράπεζα Κύπρου εύχεται στουσ Κύπριουσ αθλητέσ να γίνουν οι καλύτεροι πρεσβευτέσ τησ Κύπρου στο εξωτερικÞ µε τισ επιτυχίεσ τουσ στουσ αγώνεσ.

¶ÚÔÂÙÔÈ̷ۛ˜ ÁÈ· ÂÔÚÙ·ÛÌÔ‡˜ ÙÔ˘ Arthur Guinness Η GUINNESS ανακοίνωσε τα σχέδια τησ για τουσ τέταρτουσ ετήσιουσ εορτασµούσ για την ηµέρα του Arthur Guinness. Οι εορτασµοί, που θα είναι οι µεγαλύτεροι µέχρι στιγµήσ, θα διεξαχθούν σε περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 55 χώρεσ ανά το παγκÞσµιο µε έναρξη τισ 27 Σεπτεµβρίου 2012. Οι εορτασµοί για την ηµέρα του Arthur Guinness είναι ένα µουσικÞ γεγονÞσ που απευθύνεται σε Þσουσ νιώθουν ξεχωριστοί και τολµηροί Þπωσ ακριβώσ και ο ιδρυτήσ τησ µπύρασ Guinness. Φέτοσ υπολογίζεται Þτι περισσÞτερο απÞ 1.5 εκατοµµύριο µουσικÞφιλοι και λάτρεισ τησ µπύρασ Guinness θα συµµετάσχουν στουσ εορτασµούσ. Στην Κύπρο, οι λάτρεισ τησ µπύρασ Guinness, θα έχουν την ευκαιρία να λάβουν µέροσ στουσ εορτασµούσ και να υψώσουν ένα ποτήρι Guinness προσ τιµή του Arthur Guinness, σε 25 µπυραρίεσ σε ολÞκληρο το νησί. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ στο

Etihad: ¶Ù‹ÛÂȘ Û ∫·˙·ÌÏ¿Óη Î·È ∆fiÎ˘Ô Η Etihad Airways, ο εθνικÞσ αεροµεταφορέασ των Ηνωµένων Αραβικών Εµιράτων, συνεχίζει να επεκτείνει το δίκτυο προορισµών τησ, ανακοινώνοντασ την έναρξη καθηµερινών πτήσεων προσ την Καζαµπλάνκα στο ΜαρÞκο, απÞ τισ 28 Μαρτίου 2013 και το ΤÞκυο στην Ιαπωνία απÞ τισ 2 Απριλίου 2013. Αντίστοιχο αριθµÞ πτήσεων πραγµατοποιεί σήµερα και προσ το ΤÞκυο, προορισµÞ που ξεκίνησε να εξυπηρετεί απÞ το Μάρτιο του 2010, µεταφέροντασ µέχρι στιγµήσ πέραν των 160.000 ταξιδιωτών µεταξύ τησ πρωτεύουσασ τησ Ιαπωνίασ και του Άµπου Ντάµπι. Στο µεταξύ, οι πτήσεισ τησ Etihad Airways απÞ και προσ την Κύπρο, πραγµατοποιούνται κάθε Τετάρτη, Παρασκευή και Κυριακή.

29 AΥΓΟΥΣΤΟΥ, 2012


ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 9/21

™ÙȘ 11 ™ÂÙÂÌ‚Ú›Ô˘ Ô ∫Ú·ÙÈÎfi˜ ¶ÚÔ¸ÔÏÔÁÈÛÌfi˜ ÛÙÔ ÀÔ˘ÚÁÈÎfi Στο στάδιο τησ τελικήσ διαµÞρφωσησ είναι τα έγγραφα του Κρατικού Προϋπολογισµού για το 2013, καθώσ και του ΜεσοπρÞθεσµου ∆ηµοσιονοµικού Πλαισίου 2013 - 2015 και γίνονται οι τελευταίεσ τεχνικέσ επεξεργασίεσ για την ετοιµασία τησ σχετικήσ πρÞτασησ του Υπουργού Οικονοµικών Βάσου Σιαρλή, η οποία θα συζητηθεί στο ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο στη συνεδρία τησ 11ησ Σεπτεµβρίου. Ακολούθωσ, αφού εγκριθεί απÞ το ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο και αφού διαµορφωθεί η τελική µορφή του κυβερνητικού νοµοσχεδίου για τον ΚρατικÞ ΠροϋπολογισµÞ 2013, θα γίνει η κατάθεσή του στη Βουλή των Αντιπροσώπων, η οποία εφέτοσ δεν έχει κλείσει για τισ θερινέσ διακοπέσ και έτσι, Þπωσ δήλωσε ο ΟικονοµικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ Προϋπολογισµού και ∆ηµοσιονοµικού Ελέγχου, Σταύροσ Μιχαήλ, ενδεχοµένωσ να τηρηθούν επακριβώσ οι πρÞνοιεσ του Συντάγµατοσ και να κατατεθεί ο ΠροϋπολογισµÞσ στη Βουλή πριν τισ 30 Σεπτεµβρίου αντί στην Ολοµέλεια που συνεδριάζει την πρώτη Πέµπτη Οκτωβρίου. “Η συζήτηση αυτή, κατά τα τελευταία έτη, στο ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο”, δήλωσε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, “συνήθωσ είναι διήµερη, δηλαδή γίνεται µία πρώτη συζήτηση την πρώτη ηµέρα τησ συνεδρίασ του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου και µετά ορίζεται µία δεύτερη συζήτηση για τισ επÞµενεσ µία ή δύο ηµέρεσ, για να εγκριθεί στο σύνολÞ του ο ΚρατικÞσ ΠροϋπολογισµÞσ, ο οποίοσ”, συµφώνωσ των εκτιµήσεων του κ. Μιχαήλ, “θα διορθωθεί αναλÞγωσ των παρατηρήσεων και υποδείξεων του Υπουργικού και θα κατατεθεί στη Βουλή των Αντιπροσώπων”.

¢∂¡ À¶∞ƒÃ∂π ∫∞£À™∆∂ƒ∏™∏ Βασική αποστολή τησ ∆ιεύθυνσησ Προϋπολογισµού και ∆ηµοσιονοµικού Ελέγχου, τησ οποίασ προΐσταται ο κ. Μιχαήλ, πηγάζει απÞ τα Άρθρα 165 έωσ 168 του Μέρουσ ΧΙ - ∆ηµοσιονοµικέσ ∆ιατάξεισ του Συντάγµατοσ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ και συνίσταται στην εφαρµογή τησ εκάστοτε δηµοσιονοµικήσ πολιτικήσ του κράτουσ που περιλαµβάνει τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ αναφορικά µε τισ δηµÞσιεσ δαπάνεσ, τα έσοδα και το δανεισµÞ του δηµÞσιου τοµέα. Ερωτηθείσ εάν η Þλη διαδικασία για τον ετήσιο ΠροϋπολογισµÞ του κράτουσ είναι εντÞσ των συνήθων χρονοδιαγραµµάτων, ή µήπωσ υπάρχουν καθυστερήσεισ λÞγω των διαβουλεύσεων που εξακολουθούν να γίνονται σχετικά µε το δανεισµÞ του κυπριακού ∆ηµοσίου ή το µακροπρÞθεσµο δηµοσιονοµικÞ πλαίσιο τησ ΕΕ, ο κ. Μιχαήλ απάντησε Þτι “δεν υπάρχει καµία καθυστέρηση, αντιθέτωσ Þλα γίνονται πιο ενωρίσ”. “Υπήρξαν περιπτώσεισ, κατά τισ οποίεσ πήγαµε µέχρι και τισ 17 Σεπτεµβρίου, για να εξετασθεί και να εγκριθεί ο ΚρατικÞσ ΠροϋπολογισµÞσ απÞ το ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο”, δήλωσε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, προσθέτοντασ πωσ “ο λÞγοσ, για τον οποίο πάντοτε η διαδικασία αυτή γίνεται εντÞσ του πρώτου δεκαπενθηµέρου Σεπτεµβρίου, είναι για να δοθεί και σε εµάσ αρκετÞσ χρÞνοσ, να ετοιµασθούµε µετά τισ αλλαγέσ που θα επιφέρει το ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο και να έχουµε τουλάχιστον δεκαπέντε ηµέρεσ να ετοιµάσουµε τα έγγραφα και να κάνουµε το νοµοσχέδιο για τον ΚρατικÞ ΠροϋπολογισµÞ, προκειµένου να υποβληθεί αυτÞ στη Βουλή”. Συνήθωσ, συνέχισε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, “το νοµοσχέδιο για τον ΚρατικÞ ΠροϋπολογισµÞ κατατίθεται στη Βουλή την πρώτη Πέµπτη Οκτωβρίου, οπÞταν πραγµατοποιείται η πρώτη συνεδρία τησ Ολοµέλειασ του νοµοθετικού σώµατοσ”.

“Το Σύνταγµα”, Þπωσ διευκρίνισε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, “αναφέρει, ωσ προθεσµία κατάθεσησ του Προϋπολογισµού στη Βουλή, την 30ή Σεπτεµβρίου, Þµωσ κατατίθεται την πρώτη Πέµπτη Οκτωβρίου, επειδή είναι κλειστή η Βουλή λÞγω θερινών διακοπών”. “Εφέτοσ η Βουλή δεν έκλεισε”, πρÞσθεσε, “πιθανÞν να παραµείνουµε εντÞσ των συνταγµατικών προθεσµιών και να κατατεθεί µέχρι τισ 30 Σεπτεµβρίου, κάτι που θα εξαρτηθεί απÞ την επιθυµία τησ ίδιασ τησ Βουλήσ”. Οπωσ ανέφερε ο κ. Μιχαήλ σε δηλώσεισ του “µÞλισ έχει καθορισθεί και οριστικοποιηθεί η ηµέρα, κατά την οποία θα συζητήσει το ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο την πρÞταση του Υπουργού Οικονοµικών για τον ΚρατικÞ ΠροϋπολογισµÞ του 2013, καθώσ και το ΜεσοπρÞθεσµο ∆ηµοσιονοµικÞ Πλαίσιο του 2013 - 2015”. Απαντώντασ σε ερώτηση κατά πÞσον επηρεάζει τον καταρτισµÞ του Κρατικού Προϋπολογισµού 2013 η διαδικασία διαµÞρφωσησ του δηµοσιονοµικού πλαισίου τησ ΕΕ µέχρι το 2020, ο κ. Μιχαήλ είπε Þτι “δεν έχει καµία σχέση το ∆ηµοσιονοµικÞ Πλαίσιο τησ Ευρώπησ, το οποίο συζητείται και θα ολοκληρωθεί στο τέλοσ αυτού του έτουσ ή στισ αρχέσ του 2013”. “Το µÞνο που έχει σχέση µε τον ΠροϋπολογισµÞ µασ”, είπε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, “είναι τα συγχρηµατοδοτούµενα προγράµµατα, τα οποία, για τον κυπριακÞ ΠροϋπολογισµÞ του 2013, αφορούν το προηγούµενο δηµοσιονοµικÞ πλαίσιο τησ ΕΕ, ενώ για τουσ προϋπολογισµούσ µασ των ετών 2014 και 2015 γίνεται µία πρÞβλεψη απÞ το Γραφείο Προγραµµατισµού, αφού γνωρίζουµε απÞ τώρα τί θα ζητήσουµε και περίπου τί αναµένουµε και βάζουµε τα αντίστοιχα ποσά”.

À¶√æ∏ √ ¢∞¡∂π™ª√™ ∫∞π ∆√ ¢∏ª√™π√ Ã∂√™ Σχετικά µε τισ επιπτώσεισ του δανεισµού του κυπριακού ∆ηµοσίου στην τελική διαµÞρφωση του Κρατικού Προϋπολογισµού και ερωτηθείσ κατά πÞσον θα υπάρξουν ενδεχÞµενεσ διαφοροποιήσεισ σε αυτÞν µετά τη λήψη σχετικών αποφάσεων και τη σύναψη των σχετικών δανείων, ο κ. Μιχαήλ δήλωσε Þτι “η ∆ιεύθυνση Προϋπολογισµού και ∆ηµοσιονοµικού Ελέγχου ετοιµάζει τουσ προϋπολογισµούσ, βάσει των αριθµών οι οποίοι θα εξαχθούν για τα ελλείµµατα ή τισ χρηµατοδοτικέσ ανάγκεσ, για να δοθούν ακολούθωσ στη Γενική ∆ιεύθυνση, που, σε συνεργασία µε τη ∆ιεύθυνση η οποία ασχολείται µε τουσ δανεισµούσ και το ∆ηµÞσιο Χρέοσ, φροντίζουν για τα περαιτέρω”. “∆εν µπαίνουµε εµείσ”, είπε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, “στη διαδικασία του δανεισµού, Þπου το Υπουργείο µπαίνει, φυσικά, αλλά εµείσ απλώσ θα τουσ εξαγάγουµε τουσ αριθµούσ για το έλλειµµα και το τί χρειαζÞµαστε και, απÞ εκεί και πέρα, οι υπÞλοιποι θα φροντίσουν για την εξασφάλιση τησ χρηµατοδÞτησησ”. “Η ∆ιεύθυνση Προϋπολογισµού και ∆ηµοσιονοµικού Ελέγχου”, δήλωσε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, “είναι στο στάδιο τησ τελικήσ διαµÞρφωσησ των εγγράφων του Προϋπολογισµού, γίνονται οι τελευταίεσ τεχνικέσ επεξεργασίεσ και η ετοιµασία τησ σχετικήσ πρÞτασησ, η οποία θα συνοδεύει τον ΠροϋπολογισµÞ στο ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο”. Συνήθωσ, είπε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, “ο ΠροϋπολογισµÞσ είναι έτοιµοσ τρεισ µε τέσσερεισ ηµέρεσ πριν τη συνεδρία του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου και προχωρεί στο ΚυβερνητικÞ Τυπογραφείο για να ετοιµα-

™ÙÔ ÛÙ¿‰ÈÔ Ù˘ ÙÂÏÈ΋˜ ‰È·ÌfiÚʈÛ˘ Â›Ó·È Ù· ¤ÁÁÚ·Ê· ÙÔ˘ ∫Ú·ÙÈÎÔ‡ ¶ÚÔ¸ÔÏÔÁÈÛÌÔ‡ ÁÈ· ÙÔ 2013, ÂÓÒ Á›ÓÔÓÙ·È ÔÈ ÙÂÏÂ˘Ù·›Â˜ Ù¯ÓÈΤ˜ ÂÂÍÂÚÁ·Û›Â˜ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ÂÙÔÈÌ·Û›· Ù˘ Û¯ÂÙÈ΋˜ ÚfiÙ·Û˘ ÙÔ˘ ÀÔ˘ÚÁÔ‡ √ÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎÒÓ µ¿ÛÔ˘ ™È·ÚÏ‹ σθούν οι τÞµοι του και κατατίθενται ωσ εµπιστευτικά έγγραφα, για αυτÞ και δεν κυκλοφορούν πριν τη συνεδρία του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου”. “∆υο µε τρεισ ηµέρεσ, πριν τη συνε-

δρία”, πρÞσθεσε ο κ. Μιχαήλ, “κατατίθενται στο ΥπουργικÞ και δίδονται αντίγραφα στα Υπουργεία, για να µπορούν να είναι έτοιµα στη συζήτηση που θα γίνει στο ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο”.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Gold eases from 4-month high Gold eased from a 4-1/2 month high, as investors took profits after an early rally on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may unveil another round of monetary stimulus at a central bankers’ meeting later this week. The precious metal, a traditional inflation hedge, received a boost after Fed Chairman Bernanke last week wrote to a U.S. congressional panel that the Fed has room to deliver additional monetary stimulus to boost the U.S. economy. Bullion investors are awaiting the annual symposium of central bankers and finance ministers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Bernanke is due to deliver a speech on Friday. The metal rose nearly 3.5% last week, its biggest one-week rise since late January, and analysts said gold looked set to rise further after breaking the top part of a fourmonth-old trading range. Spot gold hit $1,676.45 an ounce before ended down at $1,660.20 an ounce. Spot silver eased 0.2% at $30.72 an ounce after hitting a near-four-month high of $31.26, building on last week’s gain of nearly 10% which was its largest weekly rise since last October. Spot platinum inched down 0.1% at $1,539.99 an ounce, having risen 5.4% last week, its biggest one-week rise since February. The price has risen after the violence in South Africa, source of 80% of the world’s platinum. Spot palladium was unchanged at $648.50 from Friday’s late quote.

Brent steady above $112 Brent oil futures were steady above $112 a barrel on Tuesday, supported by supply concerns after U.S. companies slashed crude production in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Isaac threatened to strengthen into a hurricane. But worries that hurricane damage may prompt refiners to cut crude oil purchases in coming weeks and the U.S. government may release some of its strategic oil reserves kept gains in check. Energy companies have slashed crude production by 78% in the Gulf of Mexico. Shut-ins are expected to increase over the next few days in the region, which accounts for nearly a fourth of U.S. oil output and 7% of its natgas output. Sources had told Reuters this month that the White House was “dusting off” old plans for a possible release of oil reserves to rein in crude prices, and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which had resisted the plan, appears to have agreed to the idea. Adding to supply worries, a fire burned for a third day in two fuel storage tanks at Venezuela’s biggest refinery on Monday, raising doubts about its plans to restart operations quickly.

Copper drops London copper fell on Tuesday, with many investors closing long positions as they waited for a meeting of central bankers later this week for fresh clues on possible monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The London Metal Exchange reopened after a bank holiday on Monday, with its three-month copper contract falling 0.7% to $7,587.50 per tonne. The most active December copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 0.7% to 55,440 yuan ($8,700) per tonne, catching up with losses in London, after rising 0.4% the session before. LME zinc was the biggest loser of the day, logging a 1.7% drop to $1,848 a tonne at one point, snapping four sessions of gains. A Singapore-based trader agreed that LME zinc had dropped due to a large speculative move, saying that its fundamentals were unchanged. The cautious mood in the session was also fueled by festering fears over a slowdown in the global economy, after recent weak data including a sharp profit drop in China’s industrial sector in July. But losses in base metals will likely be capped by hopes that such numbers will spur new stimulus policies from Beijing, the United States and the euro zone.

FOREX COMMENTARY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The euro sagged against the dollar while the yen gained broadly as market players trimmed their long positions in risk currencies ahead of a central bankers’ meeting later in the week. The Australian dollar hit a one-month low against the dollar and the yen as it also smarted from worries about the extent of the slowdown in China, and the impact on the mining boom in Australia. Analysts say the euro’s recovery, triggered after ECB chief Mario Draghi said he would do whatever it took to save the euro, be losing might momentum as the currency slipped further from a seven-week peak hit last week. The euro fell as low as $1.2465, down about a full cent from its seven-week high of $1.2590 on Aug. 23. Since last week, the euro had also been supported by minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting, which sparked expectations it may start a fresh round of stimulus next month. But many traders are now looking for more solid signs of that, awaiting Friday’s speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at an annual informal meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. On the other hand, the ECB is expected to reveal further details of a new programme to lower the debt yields of Spain and Italy after its Sept. 6 policy meeting, though its implementation is likely to start in late September at the earliest. While hopes that the ECB will buy shortterm Spanish bonds if Spain requests a bailout have bolstered the euro the past several weeks, it remains unclear if this would be enough to restore investor confidence in southern European sovereign debt. Against the yen, the euro fell 0.3 percent to 98.10, having slipped to 97.88 yen at one stage as some market players were forced to cut losses on the pair, while Japanese investors were also said to be selling the euro against the yen. But in a sign of strong expectations of range-bound trade, implied volatilities on dollar/yen options remained around 6.5 percent, one of the lowest levels in recent years. The Australian dollar hit a fresh five-week low of $1.0345 , pressured by worries over the slowdown in China’s economy as Shanghai shares hit fresh 3 1/2-year lows on Monday. Sharp drops in the price of iron ore, coal and other commodities are adding to worries, although Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan dismissed concerns the declines will weaken government revenues. Some traders said the Aussie’s slide was triggered by an abrupt fall in the New Zealand dollar, which fell more than 0.3 percent at one point to $0.8057 after the dairy processor Fonterra Co-operative Group — the country’s largest company — cut its forecast payout to farmers because of a high kiwi. Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Why China’s Banks Are Still Raking It In Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research It has been a grim year thus far for Chinese companies, with earnings hits taken in industries ranging from exporters to industrials to telecoms and retailers. Banks, however, have continued to rake it in. According to the CBRC, China’s financial-sector regulator, bank profits grew 23% YoY in the first half of the year, more than double the rate of nominal GDP growth rate. This has defied expectations that the days of state-supported riches for banks coming to an end, as the financial industry becomes more market-oriented, and as the piper is paid for the huge credit expansion of 2009/2010. How are banks still making the big bucks? Through a mix of skill, luck and accounting maneuvers. To gauge whether this is sustainable, investors should keep a close eye on the following channels: * Margins on loans: Historically China controlled its credit chiefly through quantitative means rather than pricing. This meant loan quotas were curtailed in tightening cycles, which allowed banks to charge more for precious quota: i.e., they made up in margin what they lost in volume, and vice-versa in an easing cycle. However bank margins did not suffer earlier this year despite an easing cycle that began with cuts in the required reserve ratio. Only when policymakers began to use more pricing tools—rates cuts and allowing more flexibility (i.e., competition) on deposit and loan rates—have the banks begun to lose pricing power. Bank of China reported that its NIM fell just 0.01pp to 2.1% YoY in 1H12, as it shifted its loan mix and improved treasury returns. But net income growth was lower in the second vs the first quarter, and BoC management acknowledged “tough operational conditions arising from market liberalization.” In our view, policymakers are not interested in maintaining banks’ comfortable interest margins at the expense of borrowers and depositors. And no wonder: in 1H12, company financing costs grew by 35% YoY—not exactly conducive to China’s current macroeconmic goals. Expect tougher NIM conditions in 3Q12 and beyond. * Fee income. It has been a tough year for Chinese brokerage business, with relatively few IPOs and a decline in the benchmark stock index. But capital markets are becoming more sophisticated, backed by a steady stream of new financial reform initiatives. Banks have not been shy about jumping into the fray: last year’s fee income was all about the risky busi-

ness of wealth management products, while recent growth was more reflective of banks increasingly being a facilitator in fixed-income transactions. As the capital markets, especially the bond market, are still at in their infancy in China, business potential is enormous (bond underwriting, advisory, leasing, financial markets...). * Impairment policy: Chinese banks have arguably been conservative in setting aside reserves for potential losses. This gives them scope to boost earnings as provisioning declines; something we saw yesterday with Bank of China’s earnings report. Previously the sector provisioned for non-performing loans and set aside additional reserves. But they have stopped building reserves and hence new provisions only reflected new non-performing loan formation. As long as NPLs do not explode, this can remain an earnings booster for banks in the coming quarters. However a slowdown in provisioning also sets off alarm bells: are banks rolling over loans to zombie companies, or simply refusing to recognize losses on bad loans? If so, then a chunk of their profits in the future will simply be fake. To quote one of favorite economists, Bastiat: there is what we see and what we don’t see. What we will see in coming quarters is that finance costs will come down for companies, at the expense of bank margins. Banks will offset this pain in some legitimate ways: growing fee business, tilting their loan mix, and enhancing treasury returns. But banks will also be

less reluctant to recognize bad debts. This explains why the market has sold down Chinese banks this year, despite the strong headline numbers. Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

The Important Structural Trend Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research With market positions and investment trends rotating more wildly and frequently than a Mitt Romney policy-position, and with fears on US and global growth growing by the day, we thought that taking a step back to review the broader investment landscape might make sense. Now, as every one knows, there are basically four factors that go into the production of any good or service: land, labor, commodities and capital. Typically, these four inputs of production are fairly stable; but over time, large differences can build up between countries, or even regions, providing investment opportunities, and even paradigm shifts. Such a shift occurred in the years following China’s 2001 entry into the WTO. All of a sudden, millions of very inexpensive workers were added to the global labor force, creating a shock in the factors such as the world has seldom seen. As we described in our 2005 book “Our Brave New World”, we moved to a world where the real winners were the companies who could most quickly adapt to benefit from the new very low-cost of labor (we called these “platform companies” and even built a fund—which is still going strong—to capitalize on the idea). Now, as China roared, fears accelerated that in the labor-land-commodities-capital equation, the rise in the emerging market labor would de facto imply a surge in commodities which would end up throwing the whole equation off balance. We were never convinced by such Malthusian arguments which ran the most stridently on oil (remember the whole “peak oil” debate?) for a good reason: of all the commodities, energy is undeniably the most important in the overall production process.

Which brings us to today. For the first sixty years after WWII, the cost of energy was roughly the same everywhere around the world; basically priced off a (usually cheap) fungible and transportable barrel of oil. On the back of the China and emerging markets boom, oil prices shot up over the past decade; a price action which forced every country to look for energy alternatives. The UK and German governments decided to bet on wind. The French government decided to bet on fifth generation nuclear power plants. The Chinese government bet on coal. The Indian government bet on thorium based nuclear plants. And the US private sector bet on fracking (actually, a rather old technique) and natural gas. And now, the results are in (no prizes for guessing who won).

The disparities in the success of these various energy investments means that we are now entering a very different world than the one that has prevailed since the end of WW2. Basically, the cost of energy amongst the various industrial countries will, going forward, most likely continue to diverge. And this is happening just as the cost of capital is basically the same everywhere (i.e., zero!) and the cost of labor will continue to matter less and less. In short, with a) some of the cheapest land and real estate in the world, b) some of the cheaper costs of energy amongst

industrial nations and c) still one of the world’s most flexible labor forces, should we be surprised that the marginal dollar flowing into equity markets today is going into US equities rather than elsewhere? Or to put it another way, if one was to build a new chemical plant or a new factory today, where would one deploy capital? Five years ago, the answer would have been China for this is where the cheap labor was. Today, the answer is the US for this is where the cheap energy will be found. In our view, this is the paradigm shift that markets are undergoing right now and the reason why we have argued for the past two years that a period of stronger US$ and outperforming US equities was a distinct possibility. Now we acknowledge that US growth numbers are worrying, that US politicians are immensely uninspiring, that Fed policy makes little long-term sense. But even with all these hurdles, we believe the stage is set for the US$ and US equities to maintain their structural outperformance. We have moved from a world where companies looked for the cheapest source of labor to a world where companies seek the most flexibility and the cheapest energy costs. This is a world that favors North America. Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


M&S bid talk boosts shares

S&P to fly after wild ride to Wyoming l The streak is over, but is the trend intact? WALL ST WEEKAHEAD A six-week string of gains in the S&P 500 ended on Friday amid shifting expectations for central bank stimulus. This week could bring clarity on that issue, and that could determine whether the recent rally that took the index to four-year highs will persist. “The streak is broken, but the trend isn’t, and I think the next major move on the S&P will push us up towards 1,450 or 1,500,” said Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist for Standard & Poor’s in New York. “Small- and mid-cap stocks are near their alltime highs, and if they break those highs, I think that will prompt the market to really rip higher.” Still, the market could be in for a bumpy ride this week ahead of Friday’s meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are looking for clues on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce a third round of quantitative easing. Bets on aggressive action to increase growth have spurred most of the market’s recent gains, meaning any disappointment could stop the rally in its tracks. The CBOE Volatility index or VIX, a measure of investor anxiety, jumped almost 13% last week. While many analysts expect QE3 - and Bernanke wrote a letter to a congressional panel that the Fed has room to deliver it - the odds seemed to decline following comments on Thursday from James Bullard, a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee. He said the latest Fed minutes, which indicated the central bank might be ready for more stimulus, were “stale.” “Rhetoric is going back and forth about what we can expect, and we could see some big gyrations going into the meeting, depending on the latest rumor,” said Michael Matousek, a senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc in San Antonio. IS QE3 BAKED INTO THE CAKE? In the recent six-week winning streak, the S&P’s longest since January 2011, the index climbed 4.7%. That could indicate QE3 has already been priced into shares. “I think we’re priced so that we won’t see a major move if something is announced,” Matousek said. “But if the status quo persists, which is what I’m expecting, that could be a big disappointment.” Daily trading volume, which has been among the lowest of the year recently, is expected to remain muted ahead of the meeting. Low volume could amplify stock swings in both directions, and there is little other news to otherwise drive trading. Following the Jackson Hole meeting, there will be a market holiday on Sept. 3 for Labor Day. Trading is expected to pick up after that, with a major catalyst seen on September 6, when the European Central Bank has its next meeting. The ECB recently pledged to “do whatever it takes” to address the euro zone’s debt crisis, comments that contributed to recent positive sentiment. Earnings season is winding down, with only five S&P 500 components scheduled to report in the coming week, including Tiffany & Co, Joy Global Inc and H.J. Heinz. With 98% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, 67% have topped expectations by an average surprise factor of 4.3%, according to Thomson Reuters data. The 67 percent beat rate is higher than the long-term average of 62%. However, there have been some notable disappointments lately, including Hewlett-Packard Co. Economic indicators includes August reads on consumer confidence and sentiment, the latest read on Chicago PMI and July pending home sales. The Fed’s Beige Book, a collection of anecdotal information on current economic conditions, will also be released. “The market is torn between macroeconomic concerns on one hand, and relatively good earnings and business trends on the other,” said John Carey, who helps oversee $260 billion as a portfolio manager at Pioneer Investment Management in Boston. “I’m encouraged by the fundamentals out there, but unquestionably, the economy has slowed.” The S&P 500 fell 0.5% last week, a relatively mild decline after six weeks of gains. On Tuesday, it surged to its highest level since June 2008 before pulling back. The Dow Jones industrial average slid 0.9% for the week, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%. For the year, all three major U.S. stock indexes have racked up substantial gains. The Dow has gained 7.70% for 2012 so far, while the S&P 500 had advanced 12.21% and the Nasdaq has climbed 17.84%. “The market has been so strong lately that there’s the idea Bernanke could pull back from QE3 as a result of that,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas. “But then, all that really means is that the market is able to stand on its own two feet.”

Persistent bid rumours surrounding British clothing and foodstores chain Marks & Spencer Plc pushed its shares up over 4% on Friday, as a media report added to speculation that private equity could be getting ready to swoop. CVC Capital Partners has already explored taking the company private, Bloomberg said, citing people close to the matter, but added that the firm is not thought to be currently pursuing a bid. M&S shares closed up 3.9% at 370.5 pence, the biggest gainer and the most actively traded stock in the FTSE 100 index, with several traders attributing the rise to the report. The stock hit a peak of 385.9p, its highest since March. However, a source familiar with CVC’s thinking said prospects of a deal happening remained uncertain. “If I were you, I would not spend too much time on this,” the source told Reuters. M&S shares have risen around 10% since the beginning of August amid reports of private equity or sovereign wealth fund interest. In May the 128-year-old group posted its first drop in annual profits in three years, as even its relatively older and more affluent shoppers feel the chill of recession in Britain. The company’s strong brand could help make it a logical target for a leveraged buyout. Private equity firms like CVC, Advent, Lyons Capital and Bain have all looked at it. However, with a market capitalisation of around 5.7 bln pounds, any prospective buyer of the firm would need deep pockets at a time when the euro zone crisis means debt markets remain tight. A deal may come from across the Atlantic, with U.S. funds such as KKR and Carlyle having access to better funding than their European peers and looking for sizeable deals of this kind.

Aer Lingus, Ryanair dig in for drawn-out battle Aer Lingus has called on shareholders to resist budget carrier Ryanair’s 700 mln euro takeover bid as the rival Irish airlines dig in for a corporate battle that looks likely to drag into next year. Both airlines said they did not expect EU antitrust regulators to approve the 694 mln euro bid for the former state carrier in a decision due by Wednesday. Instead they expect it to move to a longer Phase II process that can last up to 105 working days, which would push a resolution into next year. While Ryanair promised to offer the EU “radical remedies” to address competition concerns, Aer Lingus said the bid was doomed to fail. Aer Lingus’ shares have gained 14 cents to 1.08 since Ryanair announced its bid in June, but remain 22 cents short of the offer price, implying that many traders are yet to be convinced that the bid will be successful. The European Commission blocked Ryanair’s 2007 attempted takeover of Aer Lingus, saying the combined group would monopolise or dominate 35 routes, leading to consumers paying more. It said Ryanair had not offered to give up enough airport slots to allay its concerns. Ryanair, which already owns 30% of Aer Lingus, dropped a second offer in 2009. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary told journalists in Madrid he would offer unspecified remedies to allay competition concerns. Analysts expect him to try to convince rival airlines to commit to compete on the 44 routes where Ryanair and Aer Lingus currently have no third-party competition. Ryanair has already held talks with British Airways and Virgin Atlantic about possibly opening routes to compete with a combined Irish airline. Virgin has spoken to both Ryanair and Aer Lingus recently about airport slots. But to allay competition concerns, Ryanair will have to go beyond the London hubs of BA and Virgin, and show there will be sustainable competition on the 50 routes they compete on across Europe.

Bristol-Myers drops hepatitis C drug after patient death Bristol-Myers Squibb Co has discontinued development of an experimental hepatitis C drug after a patient treated with it during a clinical trial died of heart failure and several others were hospitalized. The drug, known as BMS-986094, was acquired by Bristol earlier this year through its $2.5 bln purchase of Inhibitex Inc. It belongs to a promising new class of hepatitis C drugs known as nucleotide polymerase inhibitors, or nucs. The mid-stage trial was halted early this month after the initial case of heart failure, which subsequently resulted in death. Bristol said it was working closely with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and trial investigators to follow up on all patients in the trial, nine of whom have been hospitalized. The company said two patients remain hospitalized, citing issues of heart and kidney toxicity. “We will also work expeditiously to share the results of our further investigations more broadly in the medical and scientific community,” Elliott Sigal, Bristol’s chief scientific officer, said in a statement. The FDA last week placed a partial hold on a trial of Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc’s experimental hepatitis C drug, citing the heart-related problems seen with Bristol’s compound.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


August 29 - September 4, 2012


Lessons from Goldman’s painful WTI bid Researchers at Goldman Sachs finally closed their trading recommendation to buy September 2012 U.S. light sweet crude futures last week, crystalising losses of 10.8%. The recommendation, initially made on February 22, when the contract was trading at $107.55 per barrel, was finally rolled forward just before the contract settled at $96.68. At one point, the recommendation was almost $30 per barrel (27%) out of the money. The bank stuck to its guns, however, reiterating its recommendation on June 11, when it was $24 underwater, arguing there were still reasons to be bullish. Goldman’s persistence has been rewarded, with prices rallying enough to reduce final losses to under $11 (10%). Nonetheless, the trading recommendation, repeated in each of its publications for the last six months, has been exceptionally painful for the bank, taking the glow off its reputation as the most accurate oil price forecaster. Price forecasts and actual trades often go wrong. Forecasting the future is difficult. So there is no shame in getting it wrong. The WTI recommendation is only one of a portfolio of forecasts the bank has made in commodities this year, some of which have been successful. But the history of this particular forecast, and Goldman’s decision to weather the criticism and stick by it, rather than withdraw it and cut its theoretical losses, is instructive, containing valuable lessons for all commodity price forecasters. P&L PERFORMANCE The original rationale was to profit from a further tighten-

ing of the crude market during the course of the year, rising tensions in the Middle East, as well as narrowing the discount between WTI and Brent following the reversal of the Seaway pipeline in May/June. But the recommendation proved an embarrassing failure. Put on when hedge funds had already amassed a near-record net long position in WTI crude futures, it turned loss-making from April as money managers liquidated their positions.

By JOHN KEMP Reuters columnist

It then sank deep underwater from May as the downturn in oil prices became a rout. Seaway’s reversal did not produce the boost to WTI the bank had predicted. When prices started to rally in late June, it was Brent, rather than WTI, which led the way higher, as the market focused on maintenance at the Buzzard field in the North Sea. Bent pulled WTI higher, rather than WTI gaining through a narrowing of the arbitrage. The bank has now rolled its loss-making September 2012 trade forward into two new recommendations: an (undated) long position in the GSCI Brent Crude total return index, and a long position in the WTI-Brent spread (long WTI, short Brent) for June 2013 (“Energy Weekly: WTI prices not keeping pace with fundamentals” Aug 21). The bank still sees the discount for WTI narrowing, albeit in 2013 rather than 2012, maintaining its long WTI short Brent trade idea. But it has switched its headline marker from WTI to Brent, and shifted from a specific futures contract (which has a limited life and is expressed in dollar terms) to an index (which has no expiry and is expressed in points). LESSONS LEARNED Unlike analysts, traders and investors must pay margin

calls on loss-making trades, and are normally subject to loss limits imposed by risk managers (and in the case of hedge funds and other money managers, by outside investors). Most traders and investors are urged to cut losses early. Certainly no trader or investor could have maintained a long position in the September WTI futures contract in the face of drawdowns approaching 25-30%. In contrast, analysts can ignore large P&L losses, and maintain their calls in the hope the market will eventually recover, permitting the recommendation to be closed out at a smaller loss, or even a profit. Analyst recommendations therefore have an optionality which is not available to traders and investors with actual position. In fact, as the trade sank deeper and deeper underwater, Goldman seems to have treated its recommendation more like an option (which has capped downside) rather than a futures position. The bank’s researchers are not alone. Most commodity analysts tend to treat directional calls on oil prices (and spreads) in the same way. But in most cases, it would be more realistic, and fairer to clients, for banks to issue trading recommendations in terms of options rather than futures. Options limit the clients’ downside in the event the recommendation goes wrong. More importantly, framing the recommendation as an option would make explicit the costs of taking a (directional) view, since buying an option involves paying a premium upfront to put the position on. Recommending a directional view via options, and indicating likely premiums, therefore gives a more realistic view of market liquidity and the cost of putting a directional strategy into practice. In future, it would be much more helpful if bank trading recommendations were ordinarily published as options rather than futures, with indicative premiums. If analysts continue to publish recommendations in futures format, they should start to think about the P&L consequences, behaving more like traders: cutting losses early, and thinking about eventual risk/reward ratios.

Carrefour’s tough choices to fund revival l May need up to €3 bln; options include partial listing of Latam or Brazil World No. 2 retailer Carrefour may need to raise up to 3 bln euros to fund a revival plan for its struggling European hypermarkets, but tight finances and dire economic times leave its new boss with hard choices. Having pulled out in June of recession-hit Greece and in Cyprus, where it was partnered with local retailer Marinopoulos, Carrefour could quit more non-strategic countries such as Turkey, Indonesia or Poland to free up cash. But in tough times, disposals could take too long, so CEO Georges Plassat could be weighing alternative solutions to fund a turnaround, such as a partial listing of its emerging-market businesses, notably profitable Latin America. “Restructuring the group will be an extremely challenging and costly process,” Natixis analyst Pierre-Edouard Boudot said. “Carrefour’s finances are already stretched, so the turnaround plan will have to be financed using outside resources.” Carrefour declined to comment. Plassat took over in May with a brief to reverse years of underperformance in Carrefour’s European markets. He is expected to detail his recovery plan on August 30 with first-half results. The retail veteran has said he needs three years to turn around Carrefour, whose challenges include halting a fall in market share in France, where it makes 43% of sales, cutting debt and weathering a difficult economic climate in Italy and Spain, where it makes just under 20%. Plassat’s arrival has raised hopes that Carrefour’s hypermarket format, which has been hit by competition from specialist stores and online shopping, will survive. Since July 12, when Carrefour defied fears of another profit warning, saying it was comfortable with the market consensus for 2012 operating profit, the stock has risen 26% from 18-year lows, outperforming a 9.5% gain in the European retail sector.

“Carrefour needs cash now and must act quickly,” said Milos Ryba, an analyst at research firm PlanetRetail.” Carrefour burnt a lot of cash last year as capital expenditure rose 27% and profit slumped 19%. Free cash flow sank to 77 mln euros from 839 mln in 2010, leaving it with net debt of about 7 bln euros at year-end. In March, Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch cut their credit ratings on Carrefour in view of additional pressure on the balance sheet. To preserve cash, Carrefour halved its dividend, and former CEO Lars Olofsson halted his brainchild Planet project, the costly revamp of its European hypermarkets. This cut capital spending to 1.6-1.7 bln euros for this year, or 2% of sales, a level analysts say barely covers the cost of maintaining existing stores. French rival Casino, by contrast, is expected to spend 3.5% of sales on capex, and estimates for Tesco, the world’s third-largest retailer, run higher still, at 44.5%. Plassat told shareholders in June that while Planet was dead, some European hypermarkets still needed renovation. His challenge is to find the extra cash needed for that task while also reducing debt. “It will cost between 600 mln and 1 bln euros to renovate the store network,” said Boudot at Natixis, who estimates that 395 hypermarkets in Europe still need renovation. He said Carrefour would also have to reinvest in cutting prices, at least in France, at a cost of 400 mln to 1.1 bln. Oddo Securities analysts said Carrefour would have to spend about 3 bln euros to cover maintenance and expansion. Nomura analysts expect Carrefour to target 1-2 bln euros of savings over two to three years and reinvest these mainly in closing the price gap of 3-4% with French rival Leclerc.

FUNDING HEADACHE Limited cash and high debt levels are complicating his task.

LATAM LISTING In recent years, Carrefour has abandoned several countries

including Japan, Mexico, Russia and Thailand. Plassat has made clear Carrefour will stay in Brazil and China, but analysts expect disposals in Indonesia, Turkey, Poland, Romania, Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore to follow, with proceeds between 1 and 3 bln euros. Britain’s Tesco, France’s Auchan and U.S. giant Wal-Mart are seen as potential buyers of eastern Europe assets. “Its central and eastern European assets could represent a great opportunity for Auchan, an operator who is well established in Russia, Poland and Romania,” Ryba said. Carrefour will not be alone in offloading assets, however, as German retailer Metro’s Real may look to sell some eastern European businesses, analysts added. In Turkey, the situation is less clear. Carrefour said in July that it was reviewing the “strategic future” of its local joint venture with Turkish partner Sabanci Holding after its chairman and three other board members quit. Because these disposals could take time, Carrefour may look for other alternatives. Activist shareholder Knight Vinke, owner of a 1.5% stake, in June suggested listing Carrefour’s international business to raise cash. This option might make sense for Carrefour’s assets in Latin America and China, Boudot said. Listing 20% of its Latin American assets could raise more than 2 bln euros and 20% of China 675 mln, based on a multiple of 11 times estimated 2012 EBITDA, in line with average multiples for Latin America and Asia.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Europe drawn back to its first problem - Greece ANALYSIS By Luke Baker and Deepa Babington

The euro zone debt crisis was born in Greece. Nearly three years and two bailouts on, Europe must decide whether to give the country yet more help or cut it loose. For all its complexities, Greece’s problems essentially come down to three simple questions: Can the country return to growth? How big are its debts? And will the first ever be enough to pay off the second? Put like that, one might wonder why policymakers have found a solution so elusive. But as ever, the devil is in the detail, and in Greece’s case the details are devilishly difficult. That is why ongoing efforts by the European Commission, ECB and the IMF — together known as the ‘troika’ — to work out Greece’s long-term growth and debt reduction prospects are so critical. Everyone from German Chancellor Angela Merkel to ECB President Mario Draghi and Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras — who wants two more years to make the cuts demanded of him — is nervously awaiting the outcome of the troika’s report, which is expected in late September or early October. If it concludes that Greece is moving in the right direction, with the potential for growth and long-term debt-reduction slowly improving, everyone will breath a sigh of relief, even if a multitude of obstacles remain. If the troika finds Greece is not doing enough and has no realistic prospect of whittling away its debts in the coming decade, then a moment of truth may finally have dawned. With plans afoot for the euro zone rescue funds and ECB to protect Spain and Italy by intervening to lower their borrowing costs, it would seem perverse to let Greece crash out of the currency area now, unleashing a wave of contagion that would take the crisis to new levels. Instead, there is likely to be a scramble to find a way to give Greece more help which does not look like it is landing the bill with the German taxpayer, something the Bundestag would likely reject. Samaras hinted at that equation after talks with Merkel last week. “We’re not asking for more money. We’re asking for breaths of air in this dive we are taking,” he said. In turn, Merkel underlined just how important the troika’s

findings will be. “What Greece can expect from Germany is that we will not make premature judgments but will await reliable evidence, which for me means the troika report,” she said. MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB While it is impossible to predict what the troika will come up with when they return to Athens on September 5 for a second, more in-depth visit, their broad parameters are clear. The critical assessment is whether Greece’s debts as a proportion of GDP can be brought below 120% by 2020, from around 160% now. The IMF has identified 120% as the upper limit for Greece’s debt mountain, saying anything above that is unsustainable given the country’s poor growth prospects and its need for huge and demanding structural economic changes. But with GDP having contracted for the past four years and set to decline a further 7% this year — substantially more than the 5% originally expected — the country is climbing an ever-steeper hill towards solvency. This offers a potential window since Greece’s bailout terms, agreed earlier this year, left scope for re-evaluation if its recession proved deeper than expected. However, the German finance ministry said last week that clause was not legally binding. At the same time, Athens’ efforts to reduce the debt by slashing the budget deficit and carrying out a far-reaching privatisation programme have so far yielded scant results. Deeper budget cuts that will save a further 11.5 bln euros in 2013 and 2014 are promised, but the question is whether they will be fully implemented — a hurdle that has routinely tripped up Athens in the past, leaving it short of targets. CLIFF OR CORNER? The assurances of Samaras, who until he took power was an opponent of austerity measures, that Greece will meet its obligations this time around are undermined by the facts. Because of delays in implementing previous commitments, caused in large part by the holding of two elections over three months, Athens is substantially off-track in its 174bln-euro bailout programme. EU and Greek officials disagree over the amounts, but some estimates suggest Greece will have to come up with another 20-30 bln euros in cost-cutting and debt-reduction measures if the debt-to-GDP ratio is ever to be put back on a

sustainable trajectory. For the troika, a lot depends on the assumptions it makes. If the Greek economy does start to grow again in 2014, how much could it expand between then and 2020? If the privatisation programme does pick up pace, could as much as 50 bln euros really be raised by 2015/16, as originally envisaged? Each of those variables could mean the difference between Greece eventually turning the corner or going over a cliff. At the moment, EU officials say, the cliff is more visible than the corner. As a result, over the coming weeks planning will intensify in Brussels, Berlin and beyond for what happens when the troika delivers its report. There are three broad potential scenarios: * The troika says Greece is marginally off-track but is capable of coming up with further spending cuts and revenue boosting measures to get itself back on a sustainable path * The troika says Greece is substantially off-track, needs to be given more time to meet its goals and possibly a third programme of EU/IMF support to return to long-term solvency * Greece is way off-track, cannot meet its targets and needs another deep debt restructuring. That would mean the ECB and national euro zone central banks having to heavily write down the value of their Greek government bonds and another multi-billion programme of euro zone support. POLITICS, POLITICS While the first scenario is what policymakers are hoping for, two and three appear more likely and both raise the question of whether Greece, having already had two bailouts worth nearly 300 bln euros, can remain in the euro zone. Merkel and other EU leaders are adamant they want Greece to stay in. But German lawmakers have made clear they cannot countenance any more time or money for Greece and Merkel must keep their views firmly in mind with elections a year away. If Greece’s debts are assessed to be unsustainable, it is not clear that the IMF will be willing to take part in any further support for Athens. That would leave the euro zone alone to carry to can with limited bailout resources, while also fretting about Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. Logic might suggest Greece must go but this crisis has shown politics trumps maths and economics. That is why analysts say a “muddle through” is most likely to be found, for now at least.

Greece mulls T-bills

Emporiki talks in September

Motor Oil profit falls 74%

Greece estimates that a two-year extension on its bailout would create a financing gap of less than 18 bln euros, which it could cover by issuing short-term debt rather than pleading for more money from lenders, government officials have told Reuters. The argument is part of Greece’s efforts to persuade irate European partners and the IMF that being granted more time to hit budget targets does not automatically mean forking out more money to save the country from bankruptcy. Greece believes the funding gap could be bridged by issuing T-bills, an official said, which Athens relied on to get past a funding crunch in August as it awaited its next tranche of aid. “The government wants to be allowed to issue more Tbills in 2013, when the economic environment will have improved and we will be able to do it at a lower cost,” a senior official said. “An extension will give us room to achieve higher rates of growth and employment,” Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras told parliament during question time late on Monday. Athens has calculated that its economy would shrink by 1.5% in 2013 and grow by 2% in 2014 if it was granted two more years to push through the cuts. Without an extension, the economy would contract by up to 4.5% next year and see no recovery until 2015.

Credit Agricole hopes to wrap up talks on the sale of its Greek Emporiki unit within weeks, the French bank’s chief executive said on Tuesday, adding that it was possible that it could retain a stake of 10% or less in the troubled unit in order to limit its 4.6 bln euro exposure to crisis-hit Greece. “The remaining time could be a matter of weeks,” JeanPaul Chifflet told reporters on a conference call. National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank and Eurobank have already submitted offers for Emporiki, which lost 1.62 bln euros in 2011. Credit Agricole may have no option but to recapitalise Emporiki if it wants to offload the bank, which has already cost it 6 bln euros since its acquisition in 2006. Greece’s bank support fund, the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), has told Emporiki’s potential buyers that it will approve a sale only if the unit is recapitalised, probably by 2.5 bln euros, and fully funded before it is sold.

Greece’s second-biggest refiner Motor Oil reported a 74% profit drop for the first six months of the year, weighed down by falling crude prices and shrinking fuel demand in the austerity-hit country. Net income was 27.6 mln euros, down from 105.1 mln euros in the year-ago period, broadly in line with an average analyst forecast of 28.6 mln euros in a Reuters poll. Falling crude prices reduced the value of the company’s oil inventories by 45 mln euros, Motor Oil said in a results presentation. The company also reported a foreign exchange loss of 12.3 mln euros in the second quarter. However, rising exports helped mitigate stagnant fuel demand in Motor Oil’s austerity-hurt domestic market, where it runs a petrol station network it acquired from Royal Dutch Shell. Exports, mainly to other countries in the Mediterranean, rose 22% to 3.45 mln metric tons, accounting for 60% of the company’s overall sales volume. As a result, adjusted EBITDA profit dropped by just 10% year-on-year, to 165.2 mln euros. Adjusted EBITDA strips out the value of oil inventories, which fluctuates with oil prices. Hellenic Petroleum, Greece’s biggest oil refiner, is expected to post a 33% fall in quarterly profit next week, hit by foreign exchange losses and falling demand in the austerity-hit country, a Reuters poll found on Monday. Adjusted for the effect of oil prices on inventories, Hellenic is forecast to post second-quarter net income of 62 mln euros.

August 29 - September 4, 2012







Book Value

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR

Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία

Price to


Book Value 2010 Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.



1 795 141 3 411 086 579 914 74 080 246 214 460 547 80 966

1.00 0.10 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.35

312 355 129 621 99 745 17 705 16 743 8 290 6 153 590 612

1.54 0.38 1.45 0.76 0.53 0.25 1.72 0.95

0.11 0.10 0.12 0.31 0.13 0.07 0.04 0.13

114 320 32 371 30 150 22 925 14 393 5 755 5 115 4 674 4 365 4 060 3 451 2 640 244 219

1.75 3.07 0.26 0.45 0.26 4.39 0.33 3.50 0.12 1.69 0.09 0.56 1.37

0.15 0.15 0.64 0.29 0.19 0.10 0.40 0.16 0.80 0.07 0.43 0.10 0.29

6 217 11 604 15 818 3 173 9 650 4 996 23 465 9 433 2 779 7 085 3 000 201 5 408 2 881 11 250 7 314 6 261 1 336 20 642 3 824 27 624 2 096 7 290 810 5 600 6 967 39 239 627 4 760 1 778 12 000 447 956 12 701 1 799 12 036 4 371 1 971 6 101 8 210 1 568 149 15 875 464 33 955 773 63 000 1 547 22 946 5 421 2 979 1 650 2 192 4 656 7 475 386 3 175 414 200 75 000 557 546

0.90 0.06 0.49 0.02 0.52 0.02 0.73 0.29 0.77 0.49 0.25 0.46 0.44 0.07 0.75 0.65 0.12 0.36 1.66 6.13 1.82 0.47 0.23 0.35 0.67 0.06 0.05 0.20 0.79 2.47 0.62 0.07 0.12 3.71 0.48 0.74 0.36 0.41 0.94 0.62 0.14 0.02 0.50 0.22 0.24 0.36 1.31 0.40 0.01 3.35 0.04 0.16 0.48 1.89 2.34 0.05 0.41 0.04 0.12 0.15 0.71

0.19 1.50 0.32 1.11 0.17 2.27 0.82 0.44 0.23 0.10 0.24 0.04 0.11 0.14 0.09 0.46 0.26 0.73 0.09 0.20 0.16 0.30 0.39 0.17 0.52 0.33 16.40 0.10 0.18 0.15 0.19 0.27 1.04 0.11 0.21 0.80 0.20 0.56 0.06 0.30 0.14 0.43 0.52 0.04 0.33 0.22 0.55 0.17 4.88 0.45 0.25 0.32 0.13 0.04 0.10 0.64 0.50 0.17 6.61 0.81

306 000 87 100 8 889 3 274 -17 397 -10 243 3 328 380 951



114 252 71 936 182 725 175 000 282 213 13 416 38 750 8 200 45 000 35 000 90 804 48 006

0.34 0.43 0.17 0.34 0.27 0.35 0.17 1.03 0.17 0.35 0.10 0.35

8 848 1 310 4 108 6 309 -47 25 987 -1 903 2 574 -1 453 456 -8 419 71 37 841



36 572 128 936 98 861 158 660 107 226 99 925 39 109 72 562 15 438 141 692 50 000 10 070 108 163 288 141 160 714 24 379 208 700 5 140 137 611 3 059 92 079 14 973 80 999 13 506 16 000 348 333 47 853 31 344 34 000 4 805 100 000 22 343 7 967 30 978 17 985 20 400 62 446 8 571 101 683 43 211 78 415 14 900 61 056 46 355 424 435 9 660 87 500 22 100 382 440 3 590 297 915 33 000 36 529 66 520 32 500 38 581 12 212 20 700 9 988 75 000

0.35 0.17 0.26 0.09 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.08 0.35 0.17 0.87 0.43 0.43 1.73 0.85 0.43 0.09 0.35 0.62 0.09 0.87 0.09 0.29 0.87 0.17 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.31 0.43 0.20 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 1.73 0.03 0.17 0.43 1.00 0.69 0.17 0.34 0.03 0.05 $ 0.10

1 767 -3 960 4 363 -5 724 -1 339 -11 422 4 108 -2 203 257 -6 512 1 542 -622 -3 641 -7 007 440 -157 1 211 -1 031 -6 432 568 13 270 1 157 2 183 -380 575 -5 602 -504 -980 1 048 614 -1 668 -844 -738 -3 358 -760 969 -2 094 -501 -3 469 -1 746 -4 952 -594 5 981 -9 573 -9 238 313 8 617 11 -5 231 362 14 344 131 -9 983 1 165 -1 062 -181 -25 -43 -330 -62 896

6M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

6M '11

6M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

6M '12

2 904

2 697

2 904

2 697

6M '11

6M '12


2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

1 906


-2 638

1 011


6M '11

6M '12


-5 391 2 240

-16 719 1 457

-3 664

-2 768

-2 739

-2 043




-1 653

1 239






-1 396


-191 1 121

-140 888

4 281 -631 -2 464 -191 -347

2 536 -171 -2 165 -396 -372

1 094

-1 506

-151 -16

-132 -133

-6 782

-24 317

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield

Share 2011 Cents



Share 2011 Cents

n/a n/a n/a 4.94 n/a n/a n/a 0.15


1 038

887 -325

Earnings Per

2011 -1 371 000 -3 650 380 -100 658 3 585 -6 894 -82 674 -8 648 -5 216 669

6 674 -1 174 4 122 245 -1 734 2 133 -1 600 -947 -1 333 759 -2 667 -1 302 3 176

1 121 -332

P/E ratio 2011

373 -12 265 2 334 -2 594 -2 121 -6 400 2 306 -2 754 570 -3 519 -7 900 -375 -3 942 -7 654 -4 006 -65 -3 921 -513 -4 630 -4 127 5 693 1 104 1 604 -526 -257 -551 -212 -15 562 1 608 5 130 -2 198 -110 -3 948 -804 100 -1 392 -438 -6 299 1 345 -3 185 -281 2 076 -2 192 -16 880 -1 314 10 753 -868 -6 352 73 151 546 964 -19 100 1 577 -1 737 -689 11 -37 2 753 -110 647

4.61 n/a 7.31 93.57 n/a 2.70 n/a n/a n/a 5.35 n/a n/a 10.73

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο

Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011

% Change


385.85 134.85 365.45

89.85 36.30 116.68

89.85 36.30 155.35

295.94 104.60 196.84

-69.64 -65.30 -21.08

377.70 0.76 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.08 0.04 0.12

80.53 0.17 0.04 0.17 0.24 0.05 0.02 0.07

80.53 0.17 0.04 0.17 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.08

286.83 0.61 0.30 0.36 0.27 0.05 0.04 0.12

-71.92 -71.48 -87.21 -52.35 -11.15 33.33 -51.35 -37.19

Cents -76.37 -107.02 -17.36 4.84 -2.80 -17.95 -10.68





Cents 5.84 -1.63 2.26 0.14 -0.61 15.90 -4.13 -11.55 -2.96 2.17 -2.94 -2.71

Cents 5.80

% 21.56

704.24 0.34 0.57 0.20 0.17 0.07 1.10 0.18 0.65 0.10 0.12 0.05 0.07

573.37 0.26 0.35 0.16 0.12 0.05 0.28 0.13 0.57 0.09 0.08 0.03 0.05

593.61 0.27 0.45 0.17 0.13 0.05 0.43 0.13 0.57 0.10 0.12 0.04 0.06

656.6 0.32 0.35 0.18 0.167 0.06 1.00 0.18 0.63 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.06

-9.59 -15.67 30.43 -7.82 -21.56 -19.05 -57.10 -26.67 -9.52 -1.02 39.76 -19.15 -8.33

Cents 1.02 -9.51 2.36 -1.63 -1.98 -6.40 5.90 -3.80 3.69 -2.48 -15.80 -3.72 -3.64 -2.66 -2.49 -0.27 -1.88 -9.98 -3.36 -134.91 6.18 7.37 1.98 -3.89 -1.61 -1.15 -0.68 -45.77 33.47 5.13 -9.84 -1.38 -12.74 -4.47 0.49 -2.23 -5.11 -6.19 3.11 -4.06 -1.89 3.40 -4.73 -3.98 -13.60 12.29 -3.93 -1.66 2.03 0.05 1.65 2.64 -28.71 4.85 -4.50 -5.64 0.05 -0.37 3.67

















670.63 0.17 0.09 0.16 0.02 0.09 0.05 0.60 0.13 0.18 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.07 0.30 0.03 0.26 0.15 1.25 0.30 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.35 0.02 0.82 0.02 0.14 0.37 0.12 0.02 0.12 0.41 0.10 0.59 0.07 0.23 0.06 0.19 0.02 0.01 0.26 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.72 0.07 0.06 1.51 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.23 0.01 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

738.87 0.17 0.11 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.83 0.16 0.21 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.09 0.31 0.05 0.32 0.18 3.20 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.38 0.02 0.62 0.03 0.15 0.48 0.12 0.03 0.14 0.70 0.09 0.65 0.09 0.23 0.08 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.21 0.01 0.11 0.08 0.52 0.06 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.23 0.01 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

-9.24 0.00 -18.18 0.00 0.00 -10.00 0.00 -27.71 -18.75 -14.29 -28.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -22.22 -3.23 -40.00 -18.75 -16.67 -60.94 -6.25 -17.65 0.00 0.00 -7.89 0.00 32.26 -33.33 -6.67 -22.92 0.00 -33.33 -14.29 -41.43 11.11 -9.23 -22.22 0.00 -25.00 0.00 -50.00 0.00 23.81 0.00 -27.27 0.00 38.46 16.67 0.00 -6.79 0.00 -37.50 -33.33 -30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

August 29 - September 4, 2012








Book Value

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR

Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία

Price to


2010 Book Value Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.



0.0379 0.2721 0.0048 0.2741 0.7502 0.0174 0.0674 0.1633 0.0734 0.0320 1.0430 2.1427 0.6125 0.2500

-47.23 -59.57 316.67 -67.17 -65.34 -42.53 33.53 -69.38 -45.50 -37.50 -23.30 -6.66 -2.04 16.00

2010 58 430 56 147 49 385 44 494 200 000 282 483 14 000 56 545 11 000 20 247 2 729 2 729 1 364 13 468

0.17 0.27 0.10 0.30 0.87 0.02 0.17 0.51 0.51 0.09 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.17

1 169 6 176 988 4 004 52 000 2 825 1 260 2 827 440 405 2 183 5 458 818 3 906 84 459

-760 -3 213 -2 533 -10 875 -15 581 -5 227 -6 -12 850 -112 -195 389 -446 -7 -127 -51 543

6M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

6M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

6M '11 -59 -1 207 -284 -3 086 -826 -2 488

6M '12 -43 -316 -705 -2 885 2 100 -1 489

-3 619


-43 -11 612

-241 -4 452

6M '11

6M '12



81 202 15 296 5 055 391 155 157 138 7 700 25 000 11 385 60 250 2 000 21 827 42 450 61 739 189 377 296 665 54 166 70 220 629 785 124 009 60 674

0.21 0.34 0.03 0.086 0.17 0.12 0.43 0.43 0.35 0.43 0.17 0.17 0.06 0.01 $0.20 0.17 0.17 0.04 0.09 0.57

812 8 719 202 23 469 1 571 385 16 250 228 8 435 540 218 5 519 8 643 1 894 5 933 5 417 702 6 298 1 240 36 404 132 880

0.1769 2.40 -0.61 -0.06 -0.20 -0.01 1.35 0.086 0.68 0.2224 0.11 0.45 0.06 -0.38 -0.27 0.29 0.000 -0.04 -0.1180 0.43

-94.35 0.24 -0.07 -1.05 -0.05 -5.00 0.48 0.23 0.21 1.21 0.09 0.29 2.47 -0.03 -0.07 0.35 33.33 -0.26 -0.08 1.40

1 609 716



2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

P/E ratio 2011

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield


Share 2011 Cents






Results Cents

2011 -737 -4 301 -1 465 -10 771 -14 687 -6 357 -255 -9 493 -165 -150 331 -136 -36 -303 -48 525

Earnings Per

Cents -1.26 -7.66 -2.97 -24.21 -7.34 -2.25 -1.82 -16.79 -1.50 -0.74 12.13 -4.98 -2.64 -2.25

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο









Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011

574.93 0.02 0.11 0.02 0.09 0.26 0.01 0.09 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.29

454.51 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.14 0.19 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.25

26.49 0.00 22.22 -33.33 -35.71 36.84 0.00 -10.00 -50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.00

0.01 0.57 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.14 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60

0.01 0.65 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.11 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60

-12.04 0.00 27.27 -

% Change




-214 1 846 -1 353 232 -31 800 -335 -1 938 221 -703 -180 774 999 -2 378 -7 100 -50 257 93 -173 -50 598 -764 -6 534 -150 162 154 191






-2 708

-2 452

-3 801 -10 248

616 -7 157

-27 989 -1 856 -18 954 -9 100 -245 -701 35 -77 -180 87 612 -2 656 -11 700 -32 272 -328 -320 -16 501 -60 -6 248 -99 502

-24 727

-33 961

-5 472 167

-4 033

-4 345



-0.03 6.47 -36.72 -4.85 -5.79 -3.18 -2.80 0.31 -0.13 -9.00 0.40 1.44 -4.30 -6.18 -10.88 -0.61 -0.46 -2.62 -0.05 -10.30



source: Eurivex Ltd. NAV: Net Asset Value

PAT:Profit After Tax

Bold: Final results

EPS: Earnings per Share based on existing number of shares. P/E: Price to Earnings ratio. Weighted P/E ratio: Calculated based on market cap weighting of profit reporting companies, Book Value: According to our estimates. N/A Indicates Not Applicable, Price 31/12/2009 is the closing price or in case of New Listings the opening price.



No. of Shares (000) 1 690 1 950 300 000 1 575 100 000 8 057 1 200 35 052 3 400 321 10 906 1 810 8 390

Market Cap EUR (000) 11 830 36 855 300 000 5 513 75 000 21 834 14 280 42 062 3 400 1 611 43 624 2 552 14 095 572 657

Latest price EUR 7.00 18.90 1.00 3.50 0.75 2.71 11.90 1.20 1.00 5.02 4.00 1.41 1.68

Nominal Value EUR 0.30 0.01 0.10 0.30 0.50 1.00 0.01 0.25 0.10 1.00 0.32 1.00 0.01

Listing Date 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 06/8/10 21/7/11 10/9/10 10/10/11 2/11/11 10/04/12 28/06/12 29/06/12 17/07/12


Ignores weighted number of shares in circulation Forecasted profits are liable to change without notice and responsibility

No. of warrants (000) 893 24831 17606 2218

Mkt Cap (00) 1 25 176 22 224

CSE Code No. of Bonds

Exercise Period

Exercise Price euro cents

Expiry Date

41212 20-30 Jun 2001-2015 1-15 May & 1-15 Nov 07-13 1-15 Nov 2010 and 2012

8.67 173 20c or EUR 35c 29

30-10-2012 30-06-2005 15-11-2013 15/11/2012

Latest Close 0.001 0.001 0.010 0.010


1 040

Market Cap EUR 104 000 000

Latest price EUR 100 000

Listing Date 8 Nov 2011

Latest NAV N/A

Kappasquare Ltd Nugreat Ltd Zetadynamic Ltd


17 000 23 000 9 000

1 700 000 2 300 000 900 000

100 100 100

30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012


Akcern Ltd


2 001

200 100


9 May 2012


DISCLAIMER: The information, comments, analyses and financial data published in this newspaper were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed and may change without notice. Any of the information or opinions published herein should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell investments. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication.

August 29 - September 4, 2012


Fed may struggle to deliver expected growth boost l Bernanke speech on Friday to be combed for clues to easing; fresh asset purchases

are no cure for euro zone, China It’s the end of August, so all eyes will again be on the small Wyoming resort town of Jackson — population 9,577 — to see whether Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke fuels or dampens hopes of fresh monetary easing to lift the U.S. economy. The annual Jackson Hole summer retreat hosted by the Kansas City Fed has become a highlight of the global central banking calendar. Expectations this year have not soared to the heights of 2010 or 2011, but equity and commodity prices have been rising and could react badly if the U.S. central bank chief pulls his punches. After all, “many” Fed policymakers judged at their August 1 meeting that extra easing would probably be warranted fairly soon in the absence of signs of a “substantial and sustainable” economic recovery, according to the minutes of their deliberations. Yet some economists reckon not even a third round of Fed asset purchases would do much to perk up world growth. For a start, bond yields are already very low and the Fed has already said it expects short-term rates to remain close to zero at least until late 2014. The law of diminishing returns is at work. Above all, buying more U.S. Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities would do nothing to address the euro zone’s underlying problems or wean China off its dependence on an investment boom that looks unsustainable, said Julian Jessop with Capital Economics, a London consultancy. “These, and not the health of the U.S. financial system, are

By ALAN WHEATLEY Global Economics Correspondent, Reuters

now the biggest challenges facing the global economy,” he said. So whereas China’s July exports to the United States were flat from a year earlier and shipments to Southeast Asia rose briskly, those to the European Union plunged 16%. As a result, total exports edged up just 1%. “Most of the deceleration in export growth is explained by the European crisis,” said Joy Yang, an economist for Mirae Asset Management in Hong Kong. That’s why markets will be glued not only to Bernanke’s speech on Friday but also to policy signals from the euro zone ahead of a September 6 meeting of the European Central Bank. WAITING FOR DETAILS Investors want the ECB to flesh out President Mario Draghi’s promise to “do what it takes” to preserve the single currency despite a collapse of confidence in the capacity of the likes of Spain and Italy to tame their debts. That evaporation of trust is weighing on the euro zone economy, which is set to shrink this quarter, polls of purchas-

ing executives suggest. Germany’s closely watched IFO survey, due on Monday, is likely to confirm the deteriorating trend. By contrast, economists polled by Reuters expect revised U.S. gross domestic product data on Wednesday to show the economy expanded at a 1.7% annualised pace in the second quarter, up from an initial estimate of 1.5%. The Fed has made plain its dissatisfaction with such tepid growth; the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to just 8.3% from 9.1% in July 2011. But markets are split on what policy steps Bernanke will flag. Many economists expect the Fed will promise to hold short-term rates extremely low for even longer while keeping the option of further asset purchases in reserve for now. It’s hard to see how that would be a game-changer for the rest of the world. Indeed, bond strategists at Deutsche Bank said developments in the U.S. housing market and in credit conditions were already consistent with slightly above-trend growth; they said their key source of concern was a slowdown in Asia. On that score, Yang at Mirae said China, Asia’s powerhouse, might feel more comfortable in relaxing its own monetary policy if the Fed moved first. But she said the key to a short-term recovery in growth was faster domestic investment. Yet project approvals were being held up by the approaching turnover in China’s central leadership and the accompanying churn of provincial officials. “Even if the U.S. started to ease more aggressively, the binding constraint on the fiscal side is the new leadership,” she said. “Everything is waiting for the political transition.”

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