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FinancialMirror Eurogroup’s ropey logic threatens EU

How many European recessions?

By Fiona Mullen

By Jeffrey Frankel

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Casinos: All that glitters Troika back for 1st review Bank of Cyprus is not goldreform urgent Gold sale not only option

Are benefits worth the risk? SEE PAGE 7

Jeffrey Sachs: Bring back Egypt’s elected government

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FinancialMirror

years Issue No. 1042

July 24 - 30 , 2013

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July 24 - 30, 2013

2 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

KPMG London to deliver final asset evaluation of CPB The final evaluation of Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) assets is expected to be delivered on Wednesday by KPMG London. The unified study of the new Bank of Cyprus (BoC) will be delivered by Friday and will contain the evaluation of assets, both from CPB and BoC, while the preliminary summary of BoC asset evaluation is also expected to be delivered today. Asset evaluation of the new BoC is key to the bank’s exit from the resolution process and for establishing the final percentage of the “haircut” of uninsured deposits, 60% of which remains committed. A 37.5% of those deposits has already been converted to shares.

Tax amnesty to lure funds The government is introducing a tax amnesty, the third by governments in the past two decades, to repatriate funds, but on the condition that they be invested before the end of the year Government spokesman Christos Stylianides said the decision taken at the Cabinet meeting last Thursday was “for purposes of attracting foreign investments and reinforcing liquidity. The tax amnesty will not have universal application, since the government is particularly sensitive on tax evasion issues.” The tax amnesty will be granted: 1. For immediate and measurable investment; 2. For settling obligations towards banking institutions and the state; 3. For long-term deposits at financial institutions (with a five year deposit)’ 4. For the purchase of sovereign bonds. Those granted tax amnesty will be exempt from income tax.

Eurobarometer: Cypriots pessimistic over economy A six monthly Eurobarometer survey, published Tuesday, shows that 97% of respondents from Cyprus consider the economic situation on the island bad or very bad. A mere 2% expresses a more optimistic opinion. The EU average at that question is 72% on the negative side and 26% on the positive. At the same time Cypriots surveyed remain divided on the euro, with those supporting it and those against it recorded at an even 47% respectively. Cypriots were more pessimistic in relation to their other European counterparts as regards the next 12 months, with 67% predicting a worsening of the economic situation as opposed to an 11% of respondents who feel that there will be an improvement. The EU average as regards the situation over the next 12 months was 34% and 18% respectively. As far as their household is concerned, 41% of the Cypriots asked describe it as good, while 58% as bad. The average response for the EU is 63% for good and 35% for bad. At the same time 49% of Cypriot participants to the survey foresee a deterioration of their household situation in the next 12

months, 6% foresees an improvement, while 41% feels that things will remain unchanged. Things are overwhelmingly bad on the matter of work, with 97% of Cypriot respondents describing the situation as bad, while the EU average for the same answer is 80%. Over the next 12 months 6% of people in Cyprus participating to the survey see an improvement while by contrast 77% predicts a deterioration of the work situation. A total of 59% of Cypriot respondents feels that things are not moving in the right direction, while 15% feels that they are. As far as trusting the government is concerned, 25% of participants have confidence in the government, while 66% said they did not. An EU average answer to that question is 25% and 71% respectively. Cypriots participating in the survey have no trust in political parties by 87% with only 10% replying that they do. The Eurobarometer survey was conducted through personal interviews between May 10 and 26, with 32,697 people participating from 27 EU member states and candidate member states.

Property prices, rents continue to fall The RICS Cyprus Property Price Index has recorded a significant decrease during the first half of 2013, across Cyprus’ major urban areas, across all districts, with Nicosia and Limassol faring the worst, as they were the least affected markets up until the second half of 2012. The RICS quarterly index found that residential prices for both houses and flats fell by 5.4% and 4.4% respectively across Cyprus the first quarter of 2013, with the biggest drop in Paphos (8.8% for flats) and Nicosia (7.8% for houses). Values of retail properties fell by an average of 7.4%, whilst those of offices and warehouses fell by 4.1% and 5.4% respectively. Compared to the first quarter of 2012, prices dropped by 10.6% for apartments, 7.6% for houses, 19.3% for retail, 10.9% for offices and 12.4% for warehouses. During the second quarter of 2013, across Cyprus residential prices for both houses and flats fell by 4.2% and 5.0% respectively, with the biggest drop in Famagusta (6.7% for flats) and Larnaca (9.2% for houses). For the same quarter, values of retail properties fell by an average of 7.8%, 4.4% for offices and 5.9% for warehouses. Compared to the second quarter of 2012, prices dropped by 12.6% for apartments, 11.2% for houses, 23.3% for retail, 23.3% for offices and 14.8% for warehouses. Across Cyprus during the first quarter of 2013 the average rental prices marked a decrease of 3.7% for flats, 2.6% for houses, 9.0% for retails, 7.6% for warehouses and 5.2% for offices. Compared with the rentals of the first quarter of 2012, the prices reduced by 9.1% for flats, by 7.3% for houses, by 20.7% for retails, 9.9% for offices and by 16.2% for warehouses.

The fall on rental prices continued across Cyprus during the second quarter of 2013, marking a decrease of 5.2% for flats, 5.4% for houses, 12.0% for retails, 7.1% for warehouses and 8.8% for offices. Compared to the rental prices of the second quarter of 2012, they fell by 12.0% for flats, 11.9% for houses, 28.3% for retails, 15.9% for offices and 19.4% for warehouses.

Corporate governance: Cypriots have a choice By Petros Florides

Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same things over and over but expecting different results. When it comes to corporate governance, Cypriots have a choice to make. Do we certify ourselves insane by continuing with the same philosophy and practices that led to the mass destruction of wealth and loss of opportunity on this island - or do we pursue the sane course of action by doing things differently. Einstein also said a problem cannot be solved from the same consciousness that created it. Decades of bad governance, both in the public and private sector, have left the country vulnerable to both internal and external slow-onset crises (e.g. unsustainable government debt, sovereign bond crisis) and

internal and external shocks (e.g. Mari, global financial crisis). If Einstein was right, the only way out of a crisis initiated by bad governance is to base a recovery on good governance. Corporate governance, together with its complement risk management, has received a lot of attention in recent years. Alas, it has been paid only lip service in Cyprus, as is evident from the damning interim report issued by the Independent Commission on the Future of the Banking Sector in Cyprus. It states: “The failure of corporate governance was one of the most important reasons why Cyprus’ biggest banks brought disaster upon themselves.” This same diagnosis could also be made of the State. With Cyprus’ unenviable expertise in the fields of: ‘boom & bust industry’ (e.g. stock market, property, banking), slowonset bankruptcy (e.g. Cyprus Airways, EuroCypria), and catastrophe with human tragedy (e.g. Helios, Mari), the only logical conclusion for a Cypriot committed to a better future is that ‘the way we do things around here’ must change. To this end, a new initiative is being promoted under the working title “New Governance for a New Cyprus”. The vision of this initiative is to chart a different path for Cyprus’ future through exemplary governance that will restore Cyprus’ battered international reputation, and restore opportunity and economic prosperity to this island. A wide cross section of professional bodies, academia, civil society and individuals are formulating what is being referred to as a “Governance Charter”. This will contain the ethics, values and principles the Cypriot public are now demanding from those who have their

hands on the levers of power in public or private entities that are considered either systemically important, “too big to fail” or of public interest. The intention is to reinforce this with new or revised laws that dictate the personal liabilities of Directors (in public as well as private organizations) under Cyprus Law, in line with similar developments in other countries. In addition, it is being proposed that the effectiveness of the voluntary “comply or explain” corporate governance regime be reviewed to take account of the Cyprus context, with greater emphasis on a “comply or else” regime if considered more effective. Last, and by no means least, a holistic approach to good governance is being advocated, with each stakeholder group (e.g. shareholders, regulators, auditors, professional bodies, academia, media, creditors, employees, customers, civil society, general public etc.) exercising their rights, but also living up to their responsibilities, and contributing accordingly to the governance process. Any organisation, institution or individuals interested in joining the initiative for a better Cyprus through better governance are invited to contact Petros Florides (petros_florides@wvi.org). Petros Florides is Regional Governance Advisor for World Vision International, and Executive Officer of World Vision Cyprus. Petros is also on the board of Institute Directors (Cyprus), co-founder of the Cyprus National Advisory Council for the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investments, co-founder of the Institute of Risk Management Cyprus Regional Group, and a Chartered Management Accountant. The views in this article represent those of the author and not any other individual or organisation.


July 24 - 30, 2013

financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 3

Eliades said BOCY was made a scapegoat Andreas Eliades, the former chief executive of the Bank of Cyprus accused the authorities on Monday of making the bank a scapegoat to cover their own shortcomings in running the island’s economy. “If the government had acted to restore fiscal imbalances, even in the first quarter of 2012, the measures would be infinitely less painful then they are today,” said Eliades, who was CEO from 2005 until mid-2012. Bank of Cyprus lost 1.8 bln euros in Greek government bonds as the three leading banks lost vast amounts of money when their bond holdings were wiped out in an EUsanctioned writedown in early 2012, a move agreed by all

European Union member states including the then Cypriot government. “We couldn’t predict there would be an 80% writedown in bonds,” Eliades told the judicial inquiry investigating the Cypriot crisis. He said the decision to buy Greek bonds wasn’t his, but sovereign debt had always been considered a safe-haven asset. Eliades, who resigned under pressure from the central bank, said Cyprus would not have needed any external help if it had controlled runaway deficits. He said that having failed to arrest a fiscal slide, authorities decided to shift blame onto banks for being heavily exposed to Greece. “Some people wanted to prove that the banks and the

bankers were to blame for the financial crisis,” he said. In a written deposition to the committee overseeing the inquiry, he also claimed the central bank was instrumental in scuppering the Bank of Cyprus’s sale of its insurance divisions in June 2012 to raise requisite capital, while he added that consultants Alvarez & Marsal and global bond managers Pimco were also responsible for misleading information. Eliades also referred to the loss-making investment in Russia, where BOCY bought out the 90% controlling stake in Uniastrum bank, saying that former executives were as much to blame for this investment.

BOCY considers split into property bank l

S e l l s K y p r o u A s s e t M a n a g e m e n t f o r €2 2 mln

Bank of Cyprus said that it studying the possibility of splitting the bank into a commercial and a real estate bank, but would not risk the mortgaged properties held as security. This seems to be a turnaround from initial thoughts by the interim management to set up a separate fund that would administer non-essential assets with a view to attracting foreign investors or offloading the assets in Cyprus and abroad to pay down its debt. The bank said in an announcement that it was given the

go-ahead by the Central Bank on Saturday to investigate this prospect. The move has caused a public uproar and raised the objection of all political parties opposed to any mortgaged properties leaving the bank and exposing customers. In any case, the plan will need to be approved by the new shareholders with a meeting expected some time in September. The bank also announced on Monday that it has already

sold its Athens-based subsidiary Kyprou Asset Management M.F.M.C to Alpha Trust Mutual Fund Management S.A. The sale, which was completed on Thursday, July 18, will fetch about 2 mln euros and is subject to the approval of the relevant Regulatory Authorities. The sale falls under the general strategy of the Bank of Cyprus Group interim management for the disposal of noncore assets and operations and is part of the restructuring efforts.

Orderly liquidation would only cost 9% of deposits l

“A crime of international dimensions”

Former Bank of Cyprus board member Evdokimos Xenophontos testified at the Investigation Committee last week and said that the resolution of the Laiki Bank, the transfer of the “good” Laiki into the Bank of Cyprus, the “fire” sale of the Greek operations of the three Cypriot banks and the bail-in imposed by the Troika on the Bank of Cyprus depositors was a “a crime of international dimensions”. He said that the primary objective of folding the “good” Laiki Bank into the Bank of Cyprus was: - To safeguard the recovery of the ELA receivable by the ECB which was guaranteed by the Central Bank and ultimately the state. “Had Laiki gone into liquidation the ELA debt would have been challenged by the other creditors (mainly the depositors) that at least to the extent that the ELA was granted to pay off other pressing depositors at a time the Laiki was quasi-insolvent it should rank pari-passu with the other depositors and not rank in priority as secured creditor.” - To absolve the state from its responsibilities towards the so-called “insured” depositors who in a liquidation would rank pari-passu with the uninsured depositors and the state would have to make up/top up the shortfalls/losses of the insured depositors. - To safeguard (effectively give priority to) certain creditors such as obligations to the state, to municipalities, to other banks, to insurance companies, etc. which obligations would in the event of liquidation rank pari-passu with the depositors and other creditors. “The above process has not only deprived the Laiki depositors from their legal entitlements in the net assets of Laiki, but at the same time it eroded the legal entitlements of the BoC uninsured depositors. By burdening the BoC with the Laiki ELA obligations, the Laiki so-called “insured” deposits, and the Laiki obligations to the State, to Municipalities, to banks and insurance companies and giving them priority over the BoC “uninsured” depositors they deprived the said depositors from their legal entitlements.” “The above process enforced by the Troika through coercion onto the Cyprus Government, amounted, in my opinion, to a crime of

international dimensions.” Xenophontos added that the “fire” sale of the Greek branches of the three Cypriot banks is a separate crime with a clear objective to downsize the three banks overnight and make a massive present to Greece over and above the GGBs PSI (which PSI of the GGBs was another crime “imposed” on the Cypriot banks and the Cyprus economy). “I have calculated how much would be the effect on the depositors of BoC and of the CPB (Laiki) banks had the two banks gone either into an “orderly” liquidation or had they been bailed-in separately on an “orderly” basis and without ulterior motives or agendas. In the case of an orderly liquidation the depositors and other creditors of BoC as well as of the CPB would lose only 9% of their money, while in the case of an orderly bail-in the depositors of BoC would contribute 11% of their deposits in exchange of shares in BoC, while the depositors of the CPB would contribute 15% of their deposits in exchange of shares in the CPB. I have assumed that the “projected future losses” per the PIMCO report (adverse scenario) will be “realised”. “It is obvious that what the Troika has designed, working together with Alvarez & Marsal (who were acting as advisers of the Central Bank of Cyprus) was not a “bank rescue” scheme but a “bank demolition” process in the case of the CPB and a “slow death” injection in the case of BoC. “I suggest that the Investigation Committee examines the above in some depth if it wishes to have a full understanding of how we got to this mess. “Furthermore, in my opinion, the Committee should also examine whether the present Board of Directors of BoC is acting for the best interests of the Bank of Cyprus shareholders and its other stakeholders (e.g. its depositors, its customers generally, the Cyprus economy etc.) or for the “prescribed” narrow interests/objectives of the ECB and the Troika,” Xenophontos concluded.


July 24 - 30, 2013

4 CYPRUS financialmirror.com

Success stories of the Eurogroup There have been 29 meetings of the Eurogroup to date as the Eurozone leaders try to keep one step ahead of the latest crisis. Many billions have been provided to help member countries survive. Millions of jobs have been lost to “austerity economics”. For the most part, the results have been disappointing. The Eurozone is now entering its seventh consecutive quarter of economic recession, the longest since the Euro was established in 1999. If we consider the European Union and not just the Eurozone, growth of GDP across the 27 countries has been consistently better (or less bad) than in the 17

By Jim Leontiades The Cyprus International Institute of Management

Eurozone countries. In short, the EU countries outside the Eurozone are growing faster than those inside. We are all too painfully aware of the many financial defaults and near- defaults among the Euro member states. These have been largely absent in the non-euro countries. The former East bloc countries of Hungary and Estonia received temporary financial assistance from the EU and IMF, but there have been no bail-in /bail-outs among countries of the EU not in the common currency. The EU countries most closely associated with financial disaster are mainly those who have joined

the common currency. These have also been the ones who have shown the least signs of recovery from the crisis. Wasn’t joining the common currency and its various institutions, commitments and sacrifices supposed to improve matters? Indeed, Eurozone officials sensitive to the obvious lack of progress are quick to point to some such instances. Irish government finances are presented as an example of economic recovery. The borrowing costs of Ireland dropped recently on the back of an upgrade from Standard and Poor’s. Surprisingly, Eurozone officials also point to Greece as another example. It has seen major improvements in its export/ import balance, hailed as a sign of improved international competitiveness.

PROGRESS THROUGH POVERTY

In the rosy days before the global crisis, Greece was importing much more than it was exporting. The result was a massive balance of payments debt which contributed to its dire economic situation. There has indeed been a marked improvement in the international trade balance of Greece. The reason is obvious and applies to most countries experiencing recession. Recessions represent a drop in demand. This affects both imports as well as domestically produced goods but imports particularly, since many of these tend to fall in the luxury category. Not only do imports typically drop in a recession, but the lack of demand in the local market pushes producers to look harder for opportunities abroad. Hence, some improvement, though usually less, in exports. The force behind such improvements is falling domestic

demand. The real test is what happens if and when a country recovers. Demand will then increase and put the whole process in reverse. Unless of course, there has been a major improvement in the country’s productivity and international competitiveness -- in which case the improvement may turn out to be permanent. There is scant sign of such improvement in Greek productivity.

MOVING THE GOAL POSTS

The improvement in Ireland’s national finances which recently resulted in lower borrowing costs is of course welcome. Ireland’s improved access to international markets was the reason for the optimism. But official statistics in the Irish Times recently indicate that the country’s economy has just entered its third recession since 2008.The Eurozone has redefined economic recovery in line with its own emphasis on government debt and finances. Some readers will remember the great fuss that was made some years go about the “fiscal compact” and the commitment of all Euro member countries to a national debt ceiling of 60%. EU statistics show that by 2012 the average debt of countries in the Eurozone has been steadily rising to reach an average debt to GDP ratio of 90% in 2012 (Germany’s national debt in that year was 83%). For the EU as a whole, the national debt ratio was lower at an average of 85% of GDP. Here again, countries within the EU but outside the Euro did better than members of the common currency. Of course, there is also the fact that since the “rescue” of the Cypriot banks the Euro is no longer a common currency.

How many European recessions?

Italy’s GDP: Two Recessions or One? (real GDP; in constant 2005 prices; seasonally adjusted) 1550000

By Jeffrey Frankel The release of revised GDP data by the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics in late June seemed like an occasion for cheer, because growth had not quite been negative for two consecutive quarters in the winter of 2011-12, as previously thought. The point, as it was reported, is that a second UK recession following the global financial crisis in 2008 (a “double dip”) had now been erased from the history books, and that the Conservative government would take some satisfaction from this fact. But it should not. The right question is not whether there have been double (or triple) dips; the question is whether there has been one big recession all along. As the British know all too well, their economy since the low point of mid-2009 has not yet climbed even halfway out of the post-crisis hole: GDP is still almost 4% below its previous peak. If European countries used similar criteria to those used in the United States for determining economic cycles, the Great Recession in Britain would quite possibly not have been declared over in the first place. Recent reports that Ireland entered a new recession in early 2013 would also read differently if American criteria were applied. Irish GDP since 2009 has not yet recovered more than half of the ground lost between the peak of late-2007 and the bottom two years later. Following US methods, Ireland would not be judged to have escaped the initial recession. As it is, one mini-recovery after another has been heralded, only to give way to “double dips.” Similarly, it was recently reported that Finland had entered its third recession since the global financial crisis. But the second one would be better described as a continuation of the first. Italy, judged according to US standards, has been mired in a five-year recession: the recovery in 2010 was so tepid that by 2011, before a new downturn set in, the economy had barely recovered one-third of the output lost after the recession began. And the new downturn has been severe: Italy’s GDP is now about 8% below its 2008 level. (See graph.) These measurement issues may sound like minor technical details; but they can have significant real-world implications. So, what are the differences between European and US criteria for judging recessions?

Economists generally define a recession as a period of declining economic activity. European countries, like most, use a simple rule of thumb: a recession is declared following two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. In the US, the arbiter of when recessions begin and end is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Unlike European countries, the Committee uses no quantifiable rule in determining the US economy’s peaks and troughs. It looks beyond the most recently reported GDP numbers to include employment and a variety of other indicators, in part because output measures are often subject to errors and revisions. Furthermore, the Committee sees nothing special in the two-quarter rule of thumb. For example, it generally would say that a recession had occurred if GDP had fallen very sharply in two quarters, even if they were separated by one quarter of weak growth. Similarly, if a trough were subsequently followed by several quarters of positive growth, the Committee would not necessarily announce that the recession had ended; it would wait until the economy had recovered sufficiently that a hypothetical future downturn would count as a new recession, not a continuation of the first one. Fortunately, the US economy has recorded positive growth for 15 consecutive quarters, so recession-dating is not a salient issue currently. But things are not always so quiet. For example, according to revised data, the US economy contracted three quarters in a row in 2001. At the time, the NBER Committee declared that there had been a recession in 2001 (based on employment and various other indicators), even though the initial GDP data did not show two consecutive quarters of declining output, let alone three. The Committee has never yet found it necessary to revise the date of an economic turning point, let alone erase a recession. The NBER is not the only institution that looks beyond a two-quarter rule and undigested GDP data. An analogous Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee was created ten years ago by the Center for Economic Policy Research in London. The CEPR Committee declared that the Great Recession ended in the eurozone after the second quarter of 2009, the same time as in the US. It declared that a second recession started in the latter part of 2011 – and continues to this day. These were probably the right judgments: growth in the

Millions of Euro

1500000

1450000

1400000

1350000

1300000

Source: OECD

quarters between the two slumps was sufficiently strong in countries like Germany that economic activity on average across the eurozone had by mid-2011 recovered about twothirds of the ground lost in 2008-09. One cannot say that the two-quarter rule of thumb used by individual countries in Europe and elsewhere is “wrong.” There are unquestionably big advantages to having an automatic procedure that is simple and transparent, especially if the alternative is delegating the job to a committee of unelected, unaccountable ivory-tower economists. But there are also disadvantages to the rule of thumb. One is the need to revise cyclical dating when data are revised. Claims made in good faith in last year’s speeches by UK politicians – and by economic researchers – have now been rendered false. In May, France, too, revised away an earlier recession, which would otherwise have been counted as the second since 2008. There is a potentially more far-reaching and serious disadvantage as well. Because citizens in Ireland and Italy have been told that their economies have entered new recessions, they are likely to conclude that their political leaders must have done something wrong recently. But if these countries have been in the same recession for five years, the implication may be that the leaders have been doing the same wrong things throughout that period. That is hardly an insignificant difference. Jeffrey Frankel is Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University. © Project Syndicate, 2013. www.project-syndicate.org


July 24 - 30, 2013

financialmirror.com CYPRUS

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Why the Eurogroup’s ropey logic threatens the EU The head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Djisselbloem, said in Germany’s Die Sueddeutsche Zeitung on July 10 that the reason Cyprus had not been given a full bailout like all other countries was because it would have made Cyprus’ debt unsustainable. This is (now) the official Eurogoup line and you will hear it from several quarters. It was a principle, Europe has to stand by its principles, and so on. Before arguing why this particular argument is such a damaging one, it is important to explain something that many Cypriots do not understand.

(But EUR 10 bln is still better than EUR 0 bln)

Without the EUR 10 bln from the troika all of us would have lost every last cent at Laiki and Bank of Cyprus (BOC). By March 2013 they were both insolvent. The so-called deposit insurance fund has just a few hundred million to cover a liability of tens of billions, so the notion of insured deposits is in fiction. Since Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) is ultimately a liabil-

By Fiona Mullen

Director, Sapienta Economics Ltd.

ity of the sovereign, the government would have been saddled with the combined EUR 11 bln from a defunct Laiki and BOC. That would have meant far nastier cuts in the public sector, with a bigger impact on consumer spending, on GDP and so on into the downward spiral. The government would have defaulted on its June-July local and international debt, defaulted sooner or later on ELA and Cyprus’ future in both the eurozone and the EU would have been in doubt, leaving it far more vulnerable to Turkey. So, while we rave and rant about the harshness of the bailout, we have to remember that from a north European perspective, they generously lent us nearly 60% of GDP, with a very long grace period, so that Cyprus could stay in the elite club.

The ropey debt sustainability argument

Now, back to the argument about principle. There were all kinds of perfectly rational (for those making them) calculations (mainly political ones) being made by eurozone leaders for not giving Cyprus the full amount needed. But the debt sustainability argument is not one of them. First, because its logic is risible. The logic goes something like this: “We did not want you to have a debt/GDP ratio of more 100% of GDP so we invented a solution that killed your only growth sectors, created massive uncertainty and made your debt ratio way higher than it would have been if we had given you the whole amount you needed”. Before March 15 my debt/GDP ratio peaked at 139% of GDP. In my June forecast it peaks at 158% of GDP. But you don’t have to believe my forecast, go look at other private-sector forecasts such as Exotix and you’ll find similar ratios. Only the European Commission/IMF forecast doesn’t change much before and after March. And that’s because poor desk-level economists had to reverse-engineer a growth forecast that had a debt/GDP ratio of 100% of GDP by 2020. You might argue that the harsher, more debt-creating solution was only imposed after the haircut on all depositors was rejected by parliament (not the government, as falsely reported elsewhere: DISY abstained). But if we are dealing with principles, then someone should have said “sorry but this second solution will push the debt ratio well beyond 100% of GDP. We have to think of another solution or let Cyprus fall out of the euro”.

The road not travelled

There were a couple of options that could have been tried if only anyone had slept properly that week. One obvious one was to give parliament a second chance. Anyone who knows Cypriots well knows that they will always say no the first

time to an idea they don’t like. It is their (far more peaceful) equivalent of running riot and smashing up public buildings. And after ten days of living with closed banks, many were beginning to doubt the wisdom of parliament’s vote. So, perhaps they should have been given two options: haircut on all but no capital controls; haircut on only the >100,000 (including the widows, orphans, the provident funds, etc) but with indefinite capital controls. Even if all those lawyer-MPs with wealthy clients had still gone for the second option, and debt was still unsustainable, at least they would not be able to blame it on the north Europeans. Another option would have been to pledge, say, EUR 10 bln until 2014 (of which around EUR 3 bln was due in debt repayments so EUR 7 bln would be for the banks). Then, an undefined additional amount would be coming only if Cyprus had reached primary surplus by, say, 2014 (the current target is 2016). It would still have involved a good bank-bad bank split, losses for bondholders and maybe even a small haircut on uninsured depositors. But since it would be less economically damaging, a primary surplus would have been achievable far earlier and would thereby have dealt with the sustainability question. Once you reach primary surplus (a budget surplus excluding interest payments) your debt starts to fall.

Debt ratio is arbitrary and seems to have been secret

Second, the debt ratio argument is arbitrary. The “sustainable” debt/GDP ratio for Greece was 120% of GDP. It was dropped to 100% for Cyprus. This was partly because the Greek debt haircut demonstrated that 120% of GDP was not sustainable. But the debt/GDP ratio in Italy has been over 100% for decades, Ireland, with a debt/GDP ratio of 117.6% of GDP last year, may get a new “precautionary credit line” when it comes to the end of its programme. If other bailout countries are treated differently in future, then we shall know for sure that the ratio was made up. Third, the 100% seems to have been a secret ratio. I heard a lot about sustainability and had a lot of discussions with both local and non-local economists about 120% of GDP. But although I was following the Cyprus crisis non-stop, somehow I only discovered that 100% of GDP was the special Cypriot ratio afterwards.

A whiff of WMD

Last but not least, this particular justification, because it is based on bad logic, has the whiff of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) about it. The reason why Tony Blair is not running any institution that the man on the Clapham omnibus will have heard of is not so much because Britain helped the US invade Iraq but because of the way it was justified. Voters were supposed to believe it was done on the basis of principle, rather than all kinds of other hard political considerations, such as the US needing a foothold in the Middle East because it could no

longer rely on potentially unstable Gulf allies (think of Bahrain and the US 5th fleet). The public didn’t believe the “principle” reason, so believed all kinds of conspiracy theories instead. The same has happened in Cyprus. People sense that the sustainability argument is false, so, many believe that it was all about grabbing Cyprus’ gas (which I very much doubt it was). And yet there were plenty of hard political considerations for not giving Cyprus the full bailout: the decreasing appetite among north European taxpayers for bailouts and the need to send a warning to other countries that do not want to cut spending (France).

And then there were the commercial considerations. The Cypriot banks did not have many debts, so no EU bank would lose money. EU banks had spent 2012 shifting their inter-bank deposits out of Cyprus while Christofias dithered, so hitting Cyprus hard would not really affect them. Last but not least, the sale of the Greek branches and the transfer of ELA to Cyprus ringfenced Greece, so Cyprus could be hit without being systemic. Not very nice reasons for a Cypriot to swallow but far closer to the truth than some arbitrary ratio loosely based on the now infamous Reinhart-Rogoff study and its missing data points. From the point of view of EU leaders, there was another good reason for not giving Cyprus the full bailout. Bailing out banks encourages them to keep lending to high-spending governments instead of lending to small businesses. This is bad for employment, which is bad for social cohesion and therefore bad for the future of the EU. Indeed, to give him credit, Djisselbloem recognises this. In an interview with the Financial Times on March 25, he said “Having cheap money because the risk will be covered by the government, and I will always get my money back, is not leading to the right decisions in the financial sector.” Unfortunately Djissellboem’s straight talking was shot down by other European leaders, even though they later agreed on bail-ins as the preferred method for troubled banks. Far better, it seems, to hoodwink the electorate with a dodgy argument about principles than to tell them the straight truth. But the cost of bad logic is to undermine voters’ confidence in politicians and hand more votes to fringe and extremist parties. We can already see the signs right across Europe. Let enough of those get into power and we’ll see them pull down the whole European Union edifice, with goodness knows what consequences for European peace. Monthly reports on the Cyprus economy, policy and politics are available at www.sapientaeconomics.com


July 24 - 30, 2013

6 | OPINION | financialmirror.com

“Fast track” my a**! EDITORIAL 135 days into the Anastasiades “pro-business” administration and we are only now starting to hear what would have been music to our ears a long time ago: that the government has decided to use the ‘fast track’ method to push through its decision for a single, mega-casino resort. Trouble is, despite all the grandiose declarations and hoopla, this is a project that will not produce tangible results until 2016 or beyond, with little, if any impact, on rising unemployment figures by then. Perhaps some people in government and politicians alike should be advised not to use the

term “fast track” as we have become the laughing stock of the international business community because we have never realised what fast track really means in Cyprus. Company registrations, red tape at government offices, visa applications, naturalisation procedures, plus many more are dealt with using the slow-track lane at best, or at snail’s pace, at worst. Other jurisdictions have passed us by a long, long time ago and we are still trying to discover why company registrations keep falling and why foreign companies loathe bringing their non-EU staff to the island. If we want the casino project to go ahead, then “fast track” means a feasibility study in 60 days (seeing as a lot of operators have been prepared for a while), followed by tenders for interest in 30 days,

pre-qualification in 30 more and final award at most, 30 days later. In other words, the casino license should be announced in December 2013, not Summer 2014. Then, there is the negotiating period with the winning license, that should take no more than 30 days and work should start immediately on the first phase within Q1 next year. Only then will we see an impact on lowering unemployment, while the state might even start collecting license fees within 2014. And perhaps the public officials involved with the whole process should have their leave recalled to ensure that things really do move ahead in a “fast track” mode, not like now when Troika investigators are here for critical reviews and senior government officials are away on their annual holiday.

Explaining business valuation approaches By Rakis Christoforou BBA, CPA/ABV/CFF, CGMA, ACFE

Business valuations are needed determine true real value of a business. If you own a business, it is an important asset and it is vital that you know the value of your business. But how exactly does a business valuation work? Though not quite as easy as assessing the value of an asset, such as shares, where you simply multiply the amount of shares you own by the closing price of the shares, a skilled business appraiser can supply you with a sound business valuation. Many people try to create their own business valuation simply by factoring in the historical financial statements of the company, but to correctly perform a business valuation, many other factors need to be considered. Financial statements are created using GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles). This means that amortisation, depreciation and other expenses are recorded based on accounting rules and not on economic realities. A financial statement is also unable to apply to the statement any intangible assets a company might have, thus not reflecting an accurate business valuation.

VALUATION PROCESS Credible and defensible business valuations can only be achieved by Accredited Business Appraisers who normally follow correctly all the necessary the steps in the process described below:

FinancialMirror Published every Wednesday by Financial Mirror Ltd. www.financialmirror.com Tel. 22 678 666 Fax. 22 678 664 P.O. Box 16077, CY2085 Nicosia Publisher/Managing Editor Masis der Parthogh masis@financialmirror.com Greek Section Editor Angela Komodromou angelak@financialmirror.com Editorial submissions: info@financialmirror.com Advertising inquiries: marketing@financialmirror.com Subscriptions: http://www.financialmirror.com/signup/index.html

- Full information (operational, financial and nonfinancial) underpins sound valuations. Curiosity is as important as calculating ability and the appraiser must ask lots of questions. - The value lies in the future earnings of the business, so both internal and external risks and opportunities must be considered. - Financial accounts for most SMEs will require “normalisation”, i.e. identification of discretionary expenses and reasonable owner’s remuneration. - All approaches should be considered and appropriate methods applied. - A Sanity Test should be applied to all valuation conclusions and a range is generally more accurate than a precise figure. That said, there are three fundamental ways to measure what a business is worth: The Asset Approach, the Market Approach and the Income Approach. Within these approaches there are a number of other methods that are not to be explored here.

THE ASSET APPROACH This views the business as a set of assets and liabilities that are used as building blocks to construct the picture of business value. The asset approach is based on the so-called economic principle of substitution which addresses this question: What will it cost to create another business like this one that will produce the same economic benefits for its owners? Since every operating business has assets and liabilities, a natural way to address this question is to determine the value of these assets and liabilities. The difference is the business value. Sounds simple enough, but the challenge is in the detail: figuring out what assets and liabilities to include in the valuation, choosing a standard of measuring their value, and then actually determining what each asset and liability is worth. For example, many business balance sheets may not include the most important business assets such as internally developed products and proprietary ways of doing business. If the business owner did not pay for them, they don’t get recorded on the “cost-basis” balance sheet!

THE MARKET APPROACH This approach, as the name implies, relies on signs from the real marketplace to determine what a business is worth. Here, the so-called economic principle of competition applies: What are other businesses worth that are similar to my business? No business operates in a vacuum. If what you do is really great then chances are there are others doing the same or similar things. If you are looking to buy a business,

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you decide what type of business you are interested in and then look around to see what the “going rate” is for businesses of this type. If you are planning to sell your business, you will check the market to see what similar businesses sell for. It is intuitive to think that the “market” will settle to some idea of business price equilibrium - something that the buyers will be willing to pay and the sellers willing to accept. That’s what is known as the fair market value: the business price that a willing buyer will pay, and a willing seller will accept for the business. Both parties are assumed to act in full knowledge of all the relevant facts, and neither being under compulsion to conclude the sale.

THE INCOME APPROACH The income approach takes a look at the core reason for running a business - making money. Here the so-called economic principle of expectation applies: if I invest time, money and effort into business ownership, what economic benefits and when will it provide me? Notice the future expectation of economic benefit in the above sentence. Since the money is not in the bank yet, there is some measure of risk - of not receiving all or part of it when you expect it. So, in addition to figuring out what kind of money the business is likely to bring, the income valuation approach also factors in the risk. Since the business value must be established in the present, the expected income and risk must be translated to today.

CONCLUSION In today’s turbulent business environment business appraisals are needed for a variety of reasons such as mergers, acquisitions, business planning, reorganisation, spin-offs, liquidations, bankruptcy, buy-sell agreements, shareholder disputes, insurance claims, damages litigation, initial public offerings, etc. Business valuation is a sophisticated blend of art and science that aims to provide an impartial opinion of value. In order to achieve that, the business valuation should involve a forensic investigation of main balance sheet, profit and loss items as well as other financial and non-financial information. Rakis Christoforou is the first Cypriot to hold the CFF (Certified in Financial Forensics) and ABV (Accredited in Business Valuation) certifications. He is a member of many professional accounting associations including the ICPAC (Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Cyprus), and Vice Chairman of ICPAC’s Economic Crime and Forensic Accounting (ECFA) Committee. rakis@spidernet.com.cy

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July 24 - 30, 2013

financialmirror.com COMMENT

7

Casinos: All that glitters is not gold THE RISKWATCH COLUMN In November 2009, Financial Mirror published a Risk Watch article of mine entitled “Casinos: A Sure Bet?” in which I laid out the pros and cons and the risk issues of legalising casinos in the government-controlled areas of Cyprus. I advocated making a well-considered examination of how other countries had fared with this topic before making any final decision. Having apparently done this, with the help of independent consultants, the new government has just announced its decision to license the creation of a single casino resort of world class standard. There is little doubt that such a resort will bring in large amounts of money in the form of project investment (est. €600800mln), licence fees and tax revenues, as well as additional tourists and all the spin-off for both the tourist-related economy and other sectors. Government estimates suggest, perhaps optimistically, that 500,000 additional tourists per annum will result plus 3,300 new jobs. In 2008, for example, Macau’s casinos pulled in US$13 bln in earnings, twice as much as those in Las Vegas. Like the offshore gas wealth, it will take a lead-in period of several years, possibly three or four, for the main revenue stream to arrive, but better late than never. Personally, I am in favour of this new initiative.

By Alan Waring

What Could Go Wrong?

As outlined in my 2009 article, there are some negative issues to be confonted and, in particular, criminal, social and economic. My experience as a risk management consultant with companies in the gaming industry in the Far East leads me to reflect on these three risk exposure areas and what the Cyprus authorities may have to deal with. In this article, I do not want to dwell on the social and economic downsides. Although clearly the latter two exist and cannot be eradicated, I believe that they are less problematic and, with appropriate safeguards, should be kept under control. Gambling addiction, for example, is not created by the advent of casinos but, for such addicts, access to casinos may encourage excess. Gambling addiction involving serious personal debt may lead to crime and a negative impact on families and society. In response, some countries, such as Australia and Singapore, require casinos to maintain a register of known gambling addicts who must be refused entry. Gambling addicts (or their families) can add their name voluntarily in Singapore. Perhaps Cyprus should adopt a similar system. In my latest book Corporate Risk and Governance*, I present the case study of a finance manager at Asia Pacific Breweries in Singapore, Mr Chia Teck Leng, who forged company documents in order to cheat a number of banks out of €90.6 mln to feed his casino gambling addiction. In 2004, he was jailed for 42 years.

There are countless lesser cases of individuals commiting fraud and theft to fund their gambling addiction. There are many documented cases of suicides and murders of desperate gamblers in Hong Kong and Macau who have fallen victim to loan sharks and credit stings. As stated above, casinos are not the cause but a catalyst. As for potential economic distortion created by a mega casino complex, for a small country such as Cyprus having a limited number of principal revenue sectors, I will refer readers to my 2009 Risk Watch article and leave further discussion of this to the economic experts. The economic benefits are clearly attractive and, in my view, outweigh any economic disbenefits.

Internationally Organised Criminals

Casinos are like a honeypot for legitimate operators and organised criminals alike because of the huge sums of cash in takings. By owning, or more likely secretly controlling a casino, a criminal enterprise can do double book-keeping and declare false low earnings, thereby paying far less tax and siphoning off the undeclared money. In addition, casinos provide an ideal vehicle for laundering ‘dirty’ money coming from other criminal activity. Casinos also provide a hub for other criminal activity, especially trafficking of drugs and people, often involving prostitution. The bigger the casino opportunity, the more likely that the criminals attracted to it will be ‘big fish’ from outside the country. The international gangs are better organised, more sophisticated, better funded and far more ruthless and quickly take over or eliminate any local criminal influence or control of casinos. Once embedded, they are notoriously difficult to root out. The priority for government and law enforcement is to prevent criminals of any sort from owning or otherwise controlling any casino or from ‘setting up shop’ anywhere near a casino. Keeping organised crime, especially the international gangs, out of gambling is a major headache for the authorities in countries that already have casinos. It will be a huge task for a small country such as Cyprus. The sheer scale of the new threat will probably overwhelm the existing resources of the local police. A whole new approach, strategy and specially trained resources will be needed to combat the threat now long before the casino complex is built and opens. Unlike Hong Kong, which has an effective Independent Commission Against Corruption working closely with the HK Police and the HK Jockey Club, Cyprus has no such robust protective framework for the gaming industry. Singapore has an extremely effective national criminal intelligence system working proactively and closely with the immigration department, the police and economic crimes unit to keep organised criminals out of Singapore let alone the gaming industry. Unlike Singapore, Cyprus just has MOKAS (the anti-money laundering unit) working reactively and piecemeal with the police if and when the Attorney General decides to pass it a case to investigate. By then it is usually far too late. And, of course, the exclusive focus on money laundering bypasses other financial crimes. The track record of prosecutions, successful or not, against major organised criminals, other ‘white collar’ criminals and the corrupted individuals that they all rely on in any sphere, not just gaming, appears to be almost zero. No doubt they would counter that the reason for no prosecutions and convictions is that such criminal activity is infinitessimally small! Hmmm, really? What about all the money laundering allegations?

What about the current spate of revelations and allegations concerning activities in BoC and Laiki/Popular prior to and possibly after the March 2013 financial crisis? What about the CYTA pension fund land purchase at Dromolaxia? Any bets on whether any criminal proceedings will result from any of these? Until relatively recently, the government’s position was that corruption is not a significant problem in Cyprus, arguing that its small population is a deterrent per se against corruption as evidenced by so few cases being identified. The Council of Europe’s GRECO (Groupe d’Etats Contre la Corruption) reports on Cyprus (2005 and 2010) stated bluntly that a small population was in fact a greater threat because of familial and friendship ties and suggested that the reason for so few court cases was more to do with lack of motivation and willingness to investigate and prosecute than to the existence of corruption. As Andreas Chrysafis put it in 2010: Unfortunately, laws have also become victims of corruption. They are forever being broken and abused by corrupt officals under the very noses of the authorities, and yet, those responsible to uphold the law frequently refuse to take positive action on prosecuting the offenders. The reason for this is simple: nepotism and corruption! The relevance of corruption to the new casino context is two-fold. First, with such a large investment involved, there will be temptation for project bidders, contractors and others to engage in bribery and corrupt relationships so as to secure lucrative outcomes for themselves. Officials working in the various authorities that will be involved in the issuing of licences, obtaining due diligence reports, selection of bidder lists, awarding of contracts, approval of financing, etc. are particularly a target for bribery and corruption. This is where the second cancer attacks. Organised criminals seeking to control the Cyprus casino industry will set out to bribe, corrupt and, if necessary, intimidate and coerce at all levels as many police officers, lawyers, deputies, judges, public officials and company directors as they possibly can. A thorough review of the law enforcement capacity and resource requirements in Cyprus in relation to the new casino industry is therefore now urgently required in order to combat this threat on a scale unseen in Cyprus before. Without it, I regret that Cyprus could be turned into a rather nasty and possibly violent place. Dr Alan Waring is an international risk management consultant with extensive experience in Europe, Asia and the Middle East with industrial, commercial and governmental clients. His latest book *Corporate Risk and Governance is at www.gowerpublishing.com/isbn/9781409448365. Contact waringa@cytanet.com.cy. ©2013 Alan Waring

Casino plan to attract investments The government announced last Thursday it would issue a single licence for a mega casino resort in an attempt to diversify its tourism product and attract foreign investment, while helping to reduce the island’s runaway unemployment. Government spokesman Christos Stylianides said after the Cabinet meeting that the authorities planned to issue a licence for a resort within the next 12 months. “The economy needs it,” he said, supporting a pre-election pledge, while the previous communist administration reject-

ed any talk of a casino. “This is the basic position of a study by an international firm, which was assigned the task of carrying out a relevant thorough study,” Stylianides added. He explained that the procedure for granting the licence will start immediately on a “fast track” basis and will be completed in 12 months because the country’s economy and tourism development need a casino with specifications of the same standards as those of the big casinos around the world.

Stylianides noted that “it is necessary to retain external advisers with specialised knowledge and experience at all stages of the process, including the final stage of the signing of the casino development licence with the successful applicant. He said that the aim of the government is to have a credible international procedure that will attract international investment interest for the creation of a casino resort in Cyprus.


July 24 - 30, 2013

8 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com

Gov’t must save the image of Cyprus l FXTM

founder says forex industry could offer best solution out of crisis

Andrey Dashin has lived in Cyprus for many years, becoming part of Limassol’s fast-paced forex trading community, establishing a name for himself by creating the Alpari Family brand. For the past six months, he has been busy with his new wholly-owned venture, ForexTime (FXTM), a forex trading brand that is aimed at the developing markets of Asia and South America. Splashing the vibrant green and orange colours around the island, the young image that FXTM projects is also visible in community projects and sports sponsorships, because Dashin believes that those who can, should give back to society. Although he employs 50 people in Cyprus, he still spend equal amounts of his time between Alpari, that has moved its operation office to London, Alpari Russia and, of course, ForexTime. “The benefits of setting up operations in Cyprus are obvious. It’s a growing market and I believe that the Cyprus government and the financial authorities have been doing great things to keep Cyprus as the best destination for forex,” he told the Financial Mirror in an interview. But Dashin is confident that with the right moves and focusing on what we have, as opposed to creating new industries, Cyprus can overcome its present hurdles. “Cyprus still has its appeal. First of all, it’s all about taxes. It’s not that favourable as before, but it is still much better than many other countries.” As with many other forex companies, the banking crisis has not affected FXTM as most of the client trading accounts are placed with global banks. “I still believe in the future of Cyprus, and the main reason for this is we believe in Cypriots. I was surprised when I first

INTERVIEW came here that I was able to find very good personnel, mature people with very good background and experience working for foreign companies. From a labour perspective, Cyprus is a great place. From a cost perspective, it also costs much less.” But does it cost less than in Russia? “Speaking about salaries, I would say it’s probably the same. But in Russia you’re not going to find specific people who are suitable for international companies. In Russia we have educated people with great experience, but not this experience.” “Salaries in Russia for good staff are close to salaries in the U.S. Talking about the IT sector, its probably easier to find excellent minds there. And also it’s not that easy to move them from Russia to other countries. So, companies decided that it’s easier to keep their IT offices in Russia.” “Our principle is to have everything in one place. It’s better from a managerial point of view. Speaking about my companies, they are not that big in terms of personnel. In Alpari we have about 700 people. So it’s not that big to have separate IT operations in Russia. We still have some technical support in Russia, but we are trying to move them to Cyprus and to UK.”

ADVANTAGE Dashin said that one of FXTM’s advantages is that being the newcomer, it can offer new products and services. The company has several technologically new products and others are in the pipeline, including money management services. But he also has reservations about binary options trading. “This can exist only as additional service to the core operations. I don’t see how some companies could survive from having only binary options. But there is also a lack of industry-wide regulation. Basically, it is regulated here in Cyprus. As I understand it this is the only jurisdiction where it is regulated. For me, as a foreign investor, it would be incredibly risky to put my money in some business that is regulated in only one jurisdiction. If something happens in that jurisdiction it could be the end of my investment. So, without clear regulation, without other countries opening doors to binary, I don’t see a future.” Dashin said that the main reason for opening ForexTime was his desire to expand into the Asian markets.

“I needed to have a small brand, more flexible, based in a favourable jurisdiction, with more stable and a clear regulatory environment. Regardless of the [economic] crisis and events, our industry is quite stable. Foreign investors feel very uncomfortable investing in some not very stable countries. The U.K., by comparison is very stable. From a regulatory point of view it is probably the most stable developed country. But recently they scrapped the FSA. Now they created a new regulator and in that situation as an investor I don’t think it’s good. The reason for scrapping the FSA was that it didn’t implement its duties. So I don’t know what that means for the new regulator and how they are going to be regulating.” In any case, the next stop for ForexTime is opening a representative office in London, despite looking to expand into Asia as well. “London is still a global jurisdiction. Singapore is a very promising target for us, but I don’t think that is going to happen this year.” Dashin explained that the difference between the Alpari brand and ForexTime is simple: Alpari was created to work in developed countries. “To work with less developed countries where there is less clear regulation you need to have a more flexible brand, a more flexible company. That’s the difference. It’s like two different tools for two different markets.”

FUTURE OF FOREX? Coming to the new markets of Asia and South America, “we should absorb the interest that they want and offer them new services. Arriving in the new Asian markets with our own western ideology would be stupid. So, it’s our big advantage compared with other big brands. ForexTime, working on new ground, is going to be in an equal position as regards brand awareness compared with big brands. Big brands with thousands of people are so cumbersome, they cannot make quick decisions. It’s going to be very difficult to compete with smaller brands.” Andrey Dashin believes that community involvement in Cyprus is important. “It depends more on personality than on some particular company strategy. We have so many forex companies that from a social perspective don’t do anything. “I came to this country to live here. I feel myself as a responsible Cyprus citizen. I have resources and manpower, I feel obliged to put something to help this country, especially in this situation when it needs help. Maybe it’s a Russian type of understanding, but from many discussion with foreigners from developed countries about their contribution to society and charity work, some of them say ‘why do we need to do this, we pay taxes, it’s the government’s responsibility’. From one perspective it sounds right. But from my perspective it’s not right, because we can blame governments or disagree with them, but some people need our help to live. And if we can help them, we need to be more responsible and mature citizens.” “It’s been surprising how quick my family adjusted to the Cyprus way of living. As a family we are self sufficient, even reclusive one might say. It’s not that we don’t have friends. We have friends, but we are not socially active. And also nature is great here and my three children and my wife feel very comfortable. I’ve been able to adjust to the Cyprus pace of living because I don’t live in Cyprus 100%. I travel and for me, when I stay in Cyprus for one week or ten days, it’s already a great achievement.” “But speaking about the Cyprus pace of living, I haven’t found that Cypriots are slow, on the contrary, they are very hard working people.”

OVERSIZED BANKING Asked to give his view of what went wrong with the economic crisis, Dashin explained that the core of the problem was oversized banking. “It’s not a problem with the banking sector itself, any sector that is many times bigger than the economy is going to be bring very big dangers.” “The major harm has been brought by the mass media hoopla. So if one day we had lost 10% of our money and we hadn’t had any further developments, we would just have lost some our money and we wouldn’t have this situation right

now, we wouldn’t find ourselves in this nightmare. It’s not because of some haircuts or something. Of course I believe that haircuts were mismanaged, but the bigger problem is the credibility of Cyprus and it was harmed.” A word of advice from Dashin would be to bring some certainty. “For business, the most horrible thing is uncertainty. We can adjust to anything, because as business entities, as business minds, we are quite adjustable. But stability is the key. My first advice would be not to make any further mistakes and not to do any drastic move in any direction. “The government must try to save the image of Cyprus. I read some suggestions from some officials to develop something new and find new sources of money. It’s not going to happen overnight. Governments spend decades on building new sources of money. It’s not going to be able to solve today’s problem with creating new industries.” Dashin brought the example of investing more in tourism. “With what money? You need to attract investors because Cyprus doesn’t have money to invest on its own. To bring new investors means to bring worldwide brands. They are not going to come with a crisis here, banks with restrictions, with haircuts. Uncertainty is the key. “Governments they need to understand that for this dream they are going to spend 10-20 years. For today, try to maintain the image of Cyprus, try to maintain the existing sectors. Forex is a great possibility because Cyprus has already been able to establish itself as a forex industry hub. The great thing would be to apply more effort in this area. Andrey Dashin said that the Securities and Exchange Commission, CySEC, is doing a great job. “The new board of CySEC has people from business. What I like about our collaboration with local authorities, they come and openly ask for our advice. They listen to us, they know our concerns. They make their own decisions, but they base their decision on our opinion as well. It’s a great collaboration. The majority of regulators in other countries don’t take into consideration the opinion of business, they create some rules and some rules don’t work at all.” Concluding the interview, Dashin said that he doesn’t want to move anywhere else. “Of course it’s all going to depend on the economy, regulation and many other things. I believe in Cyprus. In five years I hope to have the same status, but in a more developed country.”


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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 24 π√À§π√À, 2013

™ÙÔ˘˜ Ó¤Ô˘˜ ÌÂÙfi¯Ô˘˜… ÙÔ Ì·Ï¿ÎÈ Οι νέοι µέτοχοι τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου θα κληθούν τον Σεπτέµβριο να αποφασίσουν και να διαµορφώσουν το πλαίσιο σε σχέση µε το διαχωρισµÞ ή Þχι τησ τράπεζασ σε εµπορική και κτηµατική. Χθεσ το απÞγευµα και µε αφορµή τη δηµÞσια συζήτηση για το θέµα του διαχωρισµού τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου σε εµπορική και τράπεζα αναπτύξεωσ, το µεταβατικÞ ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ Τράπεζασ ανακοίνωσε Þτι το Σάββατο 20 Ιουλίου 2013, η Τράπεζα έλαβε τη συγκατάθεση τησ Αρχήσ Εξυγίανσησ (Κεντρική Τράπεζα) για έναρξη µελέτησ του Þλου θέµατοσ. Η µελέτη του σχεδίου για διαχωρισµÞ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου είναι µέροσ του συνολικού Σχεδίου Αναδιάρθρωσησ τησ Τράπεζασ, που θα συζητηθεί και θα συµφωνηθεί µε Þλουσ τουσ αρµÞδιουσ φορείσ µέχρι τα τέλη Σεπτεµβρίου, σύµφωνα µε την Τράπεζα. Η προσπάθεια αναδιάρθρωσησ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου περιλαµβάνει τη µείωση του λειτουργικού και µισθολογικού κÞστουσ, τη συρρίκνωση του δικτύου καταστηµάτων και την οµαλή έξοδο απÞ το καθεστώσ εξυγίανσησ. Η ευθύνη τησ υιοθέτησησ και διαχείρισησ του Σχεδίου Αναδιάρθρωσησ θα περιέλθει στα χέρια του νέου ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ Τράπεζασ που θα προκύψει απÞ τη Γενική Συνέλευση των ΜετÞχων.

Σηµειώνεται Þτι στο πλαίσιο τησ µελέτησ για διαχωρισµÞ τησ Τράπεζασ, ούτε ετέθη ούτε και τίθεται θέµα µεταφοράσ των οικιστικών δανείων ιδιωτών, που είναι και η πλειοψηφία των πελατών τησ Τράπεζασ, στην τράπεζα αναπτύξεωσ. ΠρÞσφατα ο πρÞεδροσ του ∆Σ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου Σοφοκλήσ Μιχαηλίδησ, είχε αναφέρει πωσ αν ολοκληρωθεί νωρίτερα το σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσησ τησ Τράπεζασ, ενδεχοµένωσ να γίνει και πιο σύντοµα η προγραµµατισµένη για το Σεπτέµβριο Γενική Συνέλευση. Πάντωσ έντονεσ ήταν οι αντιδράσεισ απÞ Þλα σχεδÞν τα πολιτικά κÞµµατα και φορείσ για την χρησιµÞτητα του διαχωρισµού τησ Τράπεζασ σε εµπορική και κτηµατική. Ο διαχωρισµÞσ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου σε εµπορική και κτηµατική επιβεβαιώνει Þτι ο ρÞλοσ τησ Κύπρου ωσ πειραµατÞζωο συνεχίζεται, Þπωσ ελέχθη απÞ διάφορα κινήµατα τα οποία υπογραµµίζουν πωσ είναι πολλά τα ερωτήµατα σε σχέση µε τη χρησιµÞτητα ενδεχÞµενου διαχωρισµού τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, εκφράζοντασ παράλληλα την ανησυχία Þτι αν αυτή η ιδέα υλοποιηθεί, θα υπάρξουν επιπρÞσθετεσ επιπτώσεισ και στουσ καταθέτεσ. Χθεσ ο κυβερνητικÞσ εκπρÞσωποσ Χρήστοσ Στυλιανίδησ και µε αφορµή τη θύελ-

£· ÎÏËıÔ‡Ó Ó· ·ÔÊ·Û›ÛÔ˘Ó ÁÈ· ÙÔÓ ‰È·¯ˆÚÈÛÌfi Ù˘ ∆Ú. ∫˘ÚÔ˘ Û ÂÌÔÚÈ΋ Î·È ÎÙËÌ·ÙÈ΋ λα των πολιτικών αντιδράσεων σε σχέση µε το επίµαχο θέµα του διαχωρισµού τησ Τράπεζασ, άφησε εµµέσωσ πλην σαφώσ να εννοηθεί Þτι η κυβέρνηση δεν συµφωνεί µε µία τέτοια εξέλιξη. «ΒασικÞσ και αµετάθετοσ στÞχοσ τησ κυβέρνησησ είναι Þπωσ η Τράπεζα Κύπρου εξέλθει του καθεστώτοσ εξυγίανσησ µέχρι το τέλοσ Ιουλίου», σηµείωσε ο εκπρÞσωποσ και πρÞσθεσε Þτι µετά την έξοδο τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου απÞ το καθεστώσ εξυγίανσησ η τράπεζα θα πρέπει το συντοµÞτερο δυνατÞν να

αποδοθεί στουσ ιδιοκτήτεσ τησ, δηλαδή στουσ νέουσ µετÞχουσ. O κυβερνητικÞσ εκπρÞσωποσ απαντώντασ σε σχετική ερώτηση ανέφερε Þτι η διαρροή στα ΜΜΕ περί διαχωρισµού τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου σε εµπορική και κτηµατική δεν προήλθε απÞ την κυβέρνηση. Η θέση τησ κυβέρνησησ, επανέλαβε, είναι σαφήσ: Θεωρεί Þτι οι νέοι µέτοχοι είναι αυτοί που θα πρέπει να διαµορφώσουν το πιο κατάλληλο πλαίσιο µέσα στο οποίο να καθοριστεί το µέλλον τησ τράπεζασ.

∞ÔÁÔËÙÂ˘Ì¤ÓÔ ÙÔ 98% ÙˆÓ ∫˘Ú›ˆÓ Η εξαµηνιαία έρευνα του Ευρωβαροµέτρου, που πραγµατοποιήθηκε το Μάιο στα κράτη µέλη για λογαριασµÞ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ, καταδεικνύει τη µεγάλη απαισιοδοξία που επικρατεί µεταξύ των Κυπρίων για την οικονοµία, ενώ ο πληθυσµÞσ παραµένει διχασµένοσ στο θέµα του ευρώ µε το ποσοστÞ των υποστηρικτών να είναι ακριβώσ ίδιο (47%) µε εκείνο των αντίθετων. Έντονη ανησυχία τησ κοινωνίασ καταγράφεται και στισ άλλεσ χώρεσ του νÞτου, κυρίωσ στην Ελλάδα, την Πορτογαλία και την Ισπανία. Στην Ελλάδα παρά τη σκληρή λιτÞτητα, οι πολίτεσ εξακολουθούν να υποστηρίζουν µαζικά το ευρώ, περισσÞτερο απÞ Þ,τι στισ άλλεσ χώρεσ µε δηµοσιονοµικά

¢ÂÓ ·Ú·ÏËÚÔÊfiÚ fiÚËÛ ÙËÓ µÔ˘Ï‹ Ô ¢ËÌËÙÚÈ¿‰Ë˜ Το θέµα που ηγέρθη για παραπληροφÞρηση τησ Βουλήσ απÞ το ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Πανίκκο ∆ηµητριάδη σε σχέση µε τουσ Þρουσ εντολήσ τησ Alvarez and Marsal έχει κλείσει στο επίπεδο τησ Κοινοβουλευτικήσ Επιτροπήσ Θεσµών, ανακοίνωσε χθεσ ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Επιτροπήσ ∆ηµήτρησ Συλλούρησ. Ο κ. Συλλούρησ είπε πωσ η απÞφαση τησ Επιτροπήσ είναι οµÞφωνη. Η Επιτροπή Θεσµών στην έκθεσή τησ αναφέρει πωσ θεωρεί Þτι δεν συντρέχουν οι προϋποθέσεισ τησ προαναφερθείσασ νοµοθεσίασ για σύνταξη έκθεσησ προσ την ολοµέλεια τησ Βουλήσ για έρευνα του θέµατοσ. Στην έκθεση η Επιτροπή επισηµαίνει Þτι ο ∆ιοικητήσ έχει δώσει συγκεκριµένεσ εξηγήσεισ αναφορικά µε το θέµα που προέκυψε σε σχέση µε την έρευνα τησ Alvarez and Marsal και για τουσ λÞγουσ για τουσ οποίουσ δηµιουργήθηκε η εντύπωση Þτι δεν θα εξεταζÞταν σε βάθοσ η υπÞθεση τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ. Περαιτέρω κρίνεται ουσιωδέστερη και σηµαντικÞτερη για την επίτευξη του έργου τησ παρά την επικέντρωση στο συγκεκριµένο υπÞ εξέταση θέµα.Tο θέµα έχει κλείσει και η Επιτροπή δεν θα κάνει πρÞταση προσ την Ολοµέλεια τησ Βουλήσ.

προβλήµατα. Το 98% των Κυπρίων χαρακτηρίζει την οικονοµική κατάσταση στη χώρα κακή ή πολύ κακή, ενώ µÞνο το 2% εκφράζει αντίθετη άποψη. Ανάλογη απαισιοδοξία επικρατεί στην Ελλάδα (98% επίσησ), ενώ οι µέσοι Þροι τησ ΕΕ ήταν 72% και 26% αντίστοιχα. Για τουσ επÞµενουσ 12 µήνεσ, το 67% των Κυπρίων, που είναι το µεγαλύτερο ποσοστÞ στην ΕΕ, προβλέπει νέα επιδείνωση τησ κατάστασησ τησ οικονοµίασ, ενώ το 11% βλέπει βελτίωση. Στην Ελλάδα το 62% προβλέπει επιδείνωση και το 11% βελτίωση, ενώ οι µέσοι Þροι στην ΕΕ ήταν 34% και 18% αντίστοιχα. Στην ερώτηση για την κατάσταση του νοικοκυριού τουσ,

οι Κύπριοι την χαρακτηρίζουν καλή σε ποσοστÞ 41%, ενώ το 58% θεωρεί Þτι είναι κακή. Στην Ελλάδα τα ποσοστά ήταν 22% και 78% αντίστοιχα. Στην ΕΕ το 63% τη χαρακτηρίζει καλή και το 35% κακή. Το 49% των Κυπρίων προβλέπει Þτι η κατάσταση του νοκοκυριού του θα επιδεινωθεί τουσ επÞµενουσ 12 µήνεσ, το 6% Þτι θα βελτιωθεί, ενώ το 41% προβλέπει Þτι θα παραµείνει αµετάβλητη. Για την απασχÞληση, το 97% των Κυπρίων χαρακτηρίζει την κατάσταση κακή, ενώ στην πρώτη θέση βρίσκονται οι Έλληνεσ µε 99%, ακολουθούµενοι απÞ τουσ Ισπανούσ και τουσ Πορτογάλουσ µε 98%.


ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2013

2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

“¶·ÁÒÓÔ˘Ó” ÔÈ ÚfiˆÚ˜ ·Ê˘ËÚÂÙ‹ÛÂȘ ÛÙ· ™˘ÓÂÚÁ·ÙÈο Εν αναµονή των αποφάσεων τησ ΤρÞικασ αναφορικά µε το σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσησ του Συνεργατισµού, τελεί η Συνεργατική Κεντρική Τράπεζα καθώσ ούτε και χθεσ δÞθηκε τελική απÞφαση για το µέγεθοσ του Συνεργατισµού. Σύµφωνα µε τον ΕρωτÞκριτο Χλωρακιώτη παγώνει προσ το παρÞν το σχέδιο πρÞωρων αφυπηρετήσεων στα Συνεργατικά, το οποίο θα ενσωµατωθεί στο

πλάνο αναδιάρθρωσησ του κινήµατοσ το οποίο αναµένεται να είναι έτοιµο τέλη Σεπτεµβρίου. Χθεσ η ∆ιευθυντική οµάδα τησ Συνεργατικήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ είχε δεύτερη συνάντηση µε τεχνοκράτεσ τησ ΤρÞικασ στα γραφεία τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ, κατά την οποία έγινε ανάλυση του σχεδίου αναδιάρθρωσησ στη λεπτοµέρεια. Προσπάθεια τησ Συνεργατικήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ είναι Þπωσ µετά τη διαδικασία των

™Â٤̂ÚË Ë Û˘˙‹ÙËÛË ÁÈ· ÙÔ ÎÔ‡ÚÂÌ· Ολοκληρώθηκε χθεσ η συζήτηση απÞ την Κοινοβουλευτική Επιτροπή Θεσµών τησ ενδιάµεσησ έκθεσησ για τη λειτουργία των θεσµών του χρηµατοπιστωτικού συστήµατοσ, που αφορά τισ εκτιµήσεισ γησ και την έκθεση τησ Pimco, τα αξιÞγραφα, την αγοραπωλησία των τραπεζικών παραρτηµάτων στην Ελλάδα, την εκροή κεφαλαίων µεταξύ 1ησ και 15ησ Μαρτίου και την ELA. Επίσησ η Επιτροπή ετοίµασε οδικÞ χάρτη πέντε σελίδων για συζήτηση απÞ το Σεπτέµβρη του κουρέµατοσ των καταθέσεων, τησ περιρρέουσασ ατµÞσφαιρασ και των αποφάσεων που λήφθηκαν στα δύο Eurogroup του Μαρτίου του 2013 και των εκροών κεφαλαίων κατά την κρίσιµη περίοδο που προηγήθηκε του κουρέµατοσ. Ο Βουλευτήσ του ∆ΗΣΥ Ανδρέασ Κυπριανού ανέφερε Þτι µέσα απÞ τη συζήτηση έχει κατατεθεί στη Βουλή τεράστιοσ Þγκοσ εγγράφων τα οποία είναι στη διάθεση των αρµοδίων Αρχών ώστε να κτίσουν στην κοινή προσπάθεια Þλων για καταδίκη των ενÞχων που οδήγησαν την κυπριακή οικονοµία στην καταστροφή. Η ενδιάµεση έκθεση θα πάει στο ΓενικÞ Εισαγγελέα την ερχÞµενη εβδοµάδα, συνέχισε, αναφέροντασ Þτι µέσα απÞ την έκθεση δίνονται συγκεκριµένεσ κατευθύνσεισ και οι Αρχέσ απονοµήσ τησ δικαιοσύνησ πρέπει να κτίσουν σε αυτά τα στοιχεία τισ ποινικέσ, αστικέσ ή πολιτικέσ ευθύνεσ που θα καταλογίσουν.

συγχωνεύσεων παραµείνουν γύρω στα 20 συνεργατικά πιστωτικά ιδρύµατα (ΣΠΙ) µε παγκύπρια κάλυψη. Υπενθυµίζεται πωσ ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Παγκύπριασ Συνεργατικήσ Οµοσπονδίασ Ανδρέασ Μουσκάλλησ είχε δηλώσει Þτι η διατήρηση 18 ΣΠΙ αποτελεί κÞκκινη γραµµή. Στη συνάντηση συζητήθηκε επίσησ και ο τρÞποσ µε τον οποίο θα καταβληθεί το ποσÞ για την ανακεφαλαιοποίηση του

Συνεργατισµού, το οποίο δεν θα ξεπεράσει το 1,5 δισ ευρώ. Επιδίωξη του Συνεργατισµού είναι να κλείσουν Þλα τα θέµατα ει δυνατÞν πριν την αναχώρηση του κλιµακίου τησ ΤρÞικασ απÞ την Κύπρο την 31η Ιουλίου, προκειµένου να προχωρήσει πρακτικά η υλοποίηση του σχεδίου αναδιάρθρωσησ, κάτι που θα βοηθήσει στην επίτευξη τησ οµαλÞτητασ και στην ενίσχυση τησ εµπιστοσύνησ.

X¿Û·ÌÂ ÙËÓ ÚÔıÂÛÌ›· ÁÈ· Ù· 800 MHz Η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή έκανε χθεσ αποδεκτÞ το αίτηµα εννέα κρατών µελών, συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ τησ Κύπρου, να αναβάλουν για εξαιρετικούσ λÞγουσ τη χρήση τησ ζώνησ των 800 MHz για ασύρµατεσ ευρυζωνικέσ επικοινωνίεσ, καθώσ έχασαν την προθεσµία τησ 1ησ Ιανουαρίου 2013, στην οποία είχαν αρχικά συµφωνήσει. Ùπωσ επισηµαίνει η ΚοµισιÞν, τα κράτη µέλη προσκÞµισαν περισσÞτερα αποδεικτικά στοιχεία για να υποστηρίξουν Þτι πρέπει να υπάρξει µεγαλύτεροσ συντονισµÞσ Þσον αφορά την εκχώρηση ραδιοφάσµατοσ στην ΕΕ. Η Επιτροπή συµφώνησε να επιτρέψει την αναβολή τησ συµµÞρφωσησ στισ εξήσ χώρεσ: Κύπροσ, Ισπανία, Λιθουανία, Ουγγαρία, Μάλτα, Αυστρία, Πολωνία, Ρουµανία και Φινλανδία. Αναφορικά µε την Κύπρο, στην απÞφαση τησ ΚοµισιÞν αναφέρεται Þτι η παρέκκλιση που ζητείται απÞ την Κυπριακή ∆ηµοκρατία µε την επιστολή τησ 29ησ Οκτωβρίου 2012 σύµφωνα µε το άρθρο 6

παράγραφοσ 4 τησ απÞφασησ αριθ. 243/2012/ΕΕ χορηγείται έωσ Þτου επιλυθούν αποτελεσµατικά τα θέµατα του φάσµατοσ που καλείται να αντιµετωπίσει η Κυπριακή ∆ηµοκρατία στη ζώνη των 800 MHz ή έωσ τισ 31 ∆εκεµβρίου 2015, Þποιο απÞ τα δύο συµβεί πρώτα. Η Επιτροπή δεν επέτρεψε παρεκκλίσεισ για τη Σλοβακία και τη Σλοβενία, καθώσ στισ χώρεσ αυτέσ οι καθυστερήσεισ οφείλονταν στην οργάνωση τησ διαδικασίασ έγκρισησ και Þχι σε εξαιρετικέσ περιστάσεισ που εµποδίζουν την ελευθέρωση τησ ζώνη. σΗ Επιτροπή χαρακτηρίζει το άνοιγµα τησ ζώνησ των 800 MHz καθοριστικÞ για την επέκταση τησ χρήσησ των δηµοφιλών ασύρµατων ευρυζωνικών υπηρεσιών. Τονίζει Þτι µια απÞ τισ συνέπειεσ τησ κωλυσιεργίασ των κρατών µελών είναι Þτι τα τηλέφωνα που θεωρούνται πρώτησ ανάγκησ συσκευέσ για τουσ πολίτεσ δεν λειτουργούν πλήρωσ στην Ευρώπη.

ƒÂ·ÏÈÛÙÈο ¯ÚÔÓԉȷÁÚ¿ÌÌ·Ù· ÁÈ· ÙÔ Ê˘ÛÈÎfi ·¤ÚÈÔ Θέµα αναθεώρησησ των χρονοδιαγραµµάτων για το φυσικÞ αέριο, τα οποία περιλαµβάνονται στο µνηµÞνιο, προκειµένου αυτά να είναι πιο ρεαλιστικά, συζήτησε χθεσ µε τεχνοκράτεσ τησ ΤρÞικασ αντιπροσωπεία του Υπουργείου Ενέργειασ, υπÞ το ΓενικÞ ∆ιευθυντή του Υπουργείου Στέλιο Χειµώνα. Σε ερώτηση σε ποια χρονοδιαγράµµατα αναφέρεται, ο κ. Χειµώνασ έφερε ωσ παράδειγµα τισ µελέτεσ που πρέπει να γίνουν πριν τη λήψη τησ τελικήσ επενδυτικήσ απÞφασησ (για το τερµατικÞ), εξηγώντασ Þτι το χρονοδιάγραµµα ολοκλήρωσησ αυτών των µελετών δεν µπορεί να είναι τώρα. “Ùλα αυτά θα αναθεωρηθούν ούτωσ ώστε να είναι πιο ρεαλιστικά για να µπορέσουµε να δουλέψουµε στα σωστά πλαίσια”, πρÞσθεσε. Σε ερώτηση Þτι χωρίσ απτά στοιχεία τησ ύπαρξησ φυσικού αερίου, δεν µπορούµε σε µια ολοκληρωµένη επενδυτική απÞφαση, ο κ. Χειµώνασ είπε Þτι δεν µπορεί σ` αυτÞ το στάδιο να δοθεί στην ΤρÞικα ολοκληρωµένη επενδυτική απÞφαση, η οποία, Þπωσ υπενθύµισε, θα γίνει το 2015. Είπε Þτι έχει δοθεί στην ΤρÞικα ολοκληρωµένο έγγραφο στρατηγικήσ, το οποίο αποτέλεσε τη βάση τησ συζήτησήσ. Ερωτηθείσ για τισ βασικέσ παραµέτρουσ του εγγράφου, ο κ. Χειµώνασ είπε Þτι το

έγγραφο καλύπτει τέσσερισ πτυχέσ, τισ εξαγωγέσ φυσικού αερίου, την εσωτερική αγορά ηλεκτρισµού, την εσωτερική αγορά φυσικού αερίου και την πολιτική µασ σε Þ,τι αφορά τισ Ανανεώσιµεσ Πηγέσ Ενέργειασ (ΑΠΕ). “Έχουµε συµφωνήσει µε την ΤρÞικα Þτι θα έχουµε πιο τακτική επαφή και στο ενδιάµεσο για να είµαστε πιο παραγωγικοί”, είπε, προσθέτοντασ Þτι αυτÞ µπορεί να περιλαµβάνει τηλεφωνική επικοινωνία ή ακÞµη και τηλεδιασκέψεισ. Ερωτηθείσ αν συζητήθηκε και η ενδιάµεση λύση για εισαγωγή φυσικού αερίου, ο κ. Χειµώνασ είπε Þτι εξήγησε στην ΤρÞικα Þτι η λύση αυτή µελετάται απÞ τη ∆ΕΦΑ και Þτι η πρÞθεση είναι να προχωρήσουµε µε την ενδιάµεση λύση “µÞνο αν αποδεικνύεται Þτι αυτή είναι συµφέρουσα για την κυπριακή οικονοµία, δηλαδή να οδηγήσει σε µείωση των τελών του ηλεκτρισµού». Σε ερώτηση αν άλλαξε η θέση τησ ΤρÞικασ Þτι τισ αποφάσεισ τισ λαµβάνει η Κυβέρνηση και γίνεται ενηµέρωση τησ ΤρÞικασ, ο κ. Χειµώνασ απάντησε λέγοντασ Þτι τισ αποφάσεισ τισ παίρνουµε εµείσ, προσθέτοντασ Þτι οι διεθνείσ δανειστέσ µασ επιθυµούν να γνωρίσουν τουσ προγραµµατισµούσ τησ Κυβέρνησησ στο θέµα του φυσικού αερίου.

TÚ. ∫‡ÚÔ˘: ¶ÒÏËÛË ı˘Á·ÙÚÈ΋˜ ÂÙ·ÈÚ›·˜ Την πώληση τησ θυγατρικήσ τησ εταιρείασ Κύπρου Asset Management Α.Ε.∆.Α.Κ. προσ την Alpha Trust Α.Ε.∆.Α.Κ. ανακοίνωσε η Τράπεζα Κύπρου. Η πώληση ολοκληρώθηκε στισ 18 Ιουλίου 2013 και τελεί υπÞ την αίρεση εγκρίσεων απÞ τισ αρµÞδιεσ Εποπτικέσ Αρχέσ. Η πώληση εµπίπτει στην ευρύτερη στρατηγική του συγκροτήµατοσ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου για πώληση µη κύριων περιουσιακών στοιχείων και δραστηριοτήτων και αποτελεί µέροσ τησ προσπάθειασ αναδιάρθρωσησ του συγκροτήµατοσ.

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¶Úfi fiˆ ˆÚ˜ ·Ê˘ËÚÂÙ‹ÛÂȘ Î·È ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏËÓÈ΋ Μέχρι τισ 2 Αυγούστου θα µπορούν να απαντήσουν οι υπάλληλοι τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ αν θέλουν να συµµετάσχουν στο σχέδιο πρÞωρησ αφυπηρέτησησ που τουσ πρÞτεινε η διεύθυνση τησ τράπεζασ την περασµένη βδοµάδα. Η αποζηµίωση που προτείνεται, είναι συνδεδεµένη µε την περίοδο υπηρεσίασ που απέµεινε στον κάθε υπάλληλο και έχει ωσ οροφή τουσ 17 µισθούσ για Þσουσ τουσ απέµειναν πέραν των 90 µηνών µέχρι την αφυπηρέτηση. Ùσοι αφυπηρετούν µεταξύ 82 και 89 µηνών θα δοθεί µέγιστη αποζηµίωση 16 µισθών ενώ για Þσουσ αφυπηρετούν σε 73-81 µήνεσ θα δοθεί αποζηµίωση µεταξύ 15 και 16 µισθών. Σηµειώνεται πωσ το Ταµείο Προνοίασ θα δοθεί κανονικά.

ΚΥΒΕ ΡΝΗΤ ΧΟΡΗ ΙΚΗ ΓΙΑ ΓΙΑ Ε ΥΠΑΘ ΕΙΣ ΟΜΑ ∆ΕΣ

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ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2013

financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3

ºfiÚÔ˜ ·Î›ÓËÙ˘ ȉÈÔÎÙËÛ›·˜ – ªÈ· ÔÊÂÈÏfiÌÂÓË ·¿ÓÙËÛË ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘

Απέτυχε να εγκριθεί η πρÞταση του βουλευτή κ. Α. ΒÞτση για την διαφοροποίηση τησ χρέωσησ του φÞρου ακίνητησ ιδιοκτησίασ, Þπου η φορολογία θα µεταβιβάζετο στουσ αγοραστέσ/κατÞχουσ των µονάδων αντί του developer/εγγεγραµµένου ιδιοκτήτη. Ελέχθη (απÞ δηµοσιογραφικέσ πληροφορίεσ) Þτι η πιο πάνω πρÞταση “έγινε στα µέτρα των developers”. Τι τεράστιο λάθοσ, Þπωσ λάθοσ είναι (κατά τισ δηµοσιογραφικέσ πληροφορίεσ) η θέση του ∆ιευθυντή του Κτηµατολογίου και εκείνη του ΦÞρου Εισοδήµατοσ. Ο κάθε ένασ φαίνεται να υιοθετεί µια θέση που τον βολεύει, χωρίσ Þµωσ η απÞφαση που ελήφθη να εξετάζει και τισ παράπλευρεσ προεκτάσεισ.

™Ù· ̤ÙÚ· ÙˆÓ developers Λάθοσ αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ Þτι η πρÞταση είναι στα µέτρα των developers. Ο αγοραστήσ πλέον θα χρεώνεται 5 φορέσ περίπου περισσÞτερα (1.9%) και το οποίο ποσÞ οφείλει να καταβάλλει στον developer. Έτσι ένασ αγοραστήσ αντί να πληρώνει έστω 200 ευρώ/χρÞνο, θα κληθεί να πληρώνει 1.000 ευρώ /χρÞνο, πλέον τουσ τÞκουσ και πέναλτυ που θα καλείται ο developer να πληρώνει και τα οποία θα µεταβιβάσει στουσ αγοραστέσ. Στισ έστω 100 µονάδεσ ο developer θα πληρώνει για ένα έργο γύρω στισ 100.000 ευρώ/χρÞνο, χωρίσ απαραίτητα να µπορεί να τα εισπράξει απÞ τουσ αγοραστέσ (ίδε την πραγµατικÞτητα που ούτε το κοινÞχρηστο ρεύµα κλπ δεν πληρώνουν οι περισσÞτεροι, άστε την συντήρηση µε τα µπαλκÞνια να πέφτουν και τÞσα άλλα). Άρα ένασ αγοραστήσ του ενÞσ διαµερίσµατοσ θα πληρώνει πολύ περισσÞτερα, µε αποτέλεσµα την µη είσπραξη απÞ το Κράτοσ, τÞσο των 100.000 ευρώ/χρÞνο απÞ τον developer, Þσο, ασφαλώσ, απÞ τισ µεταβιβάσεισ απÞ τουσ αγοραστέσ. Αποτέλεσµα η µη εισπραξιµÞτητα απÞ τον ΦÞρο Εισοδήµατοσ. Τι λογική είναι αυτή;

∆Ô ∫ÙËÌ·ÙÔÏfiÁÈÔ Το ΚτηµατολÞγιο εξέφρασε την άποψη Þτι η πρÞταση ΒÞτση θα αποθαρρύνει τουσ developers να προβαίνουν στην έκδοση τίτλων, εάν δεν επιβαρυνθούν µε το ψηλÞτερο κÞστοσ. Τι λάθοσ είναι αυτÞ, αφού τα πωλητήρια έγγραφα αναφέρουν Þτι ο φÞροσ αυτÞσ µεταβιβάζεται στον αγοραστή απÞ την ηµεροµηνία παράδοσησ, µε αποτέλεσµα ο developer να δέχεται νοµικέσ και άλλεσ πιέσεισ απÞ τουσ αγοραστέσ. Άρα δεν έχουν κίνητρα οι developers;

√ ºfiÚÔ˜ ∂ÈÛÔ‰‹Ì·ÙÔ˜ ΄Εχει ένσταση διÞτι θα προκληθεί αυξηµένη γραφειοκρατία, διÞτι δεν θα µπορεί το ΤΕΠ να διαπιστώσει ποιοι έχουν καταθέσει τα πωλητήρια τουσ έγγραφα κλπ. Τι λάθοσ! Το θέµα

είναι απλÞ, ο µεν ΦÞροσ θα αποστέλλει. στον developer, ο οποίοσ θα υποβάλλει κατάλογο πίσω στο ΤΕΠ των πωλητηρίων εγγράφων, ξεχωρίζοντασ την δική του υποχρέωση απÞ τουσ αγοραστέσ. Τι είναι το πρÞβληµα; Το ζητούµενο είναι η εισπραξιµÞτητα απÞ το Κράτοσ και δεν είναι πιο λογικÞ να µπορέσει το ΤΕΠ να εισπράττει «κάτι» παρά να µην εισπράττει καθÞλου;

ªÂÙ·‚È‚¿ÛÂȘ Ùταν λοιπÞν ένασ developer θα επιβαρύνεται µε 100.000 ευρώ τον χρÞνο και δεν µπορεί (κάτι πολύ ορθÞ υπÞ τισ επικρατούσεσ συνθήκεσ τησ µη είσπραξησ απÞ τουσ αγοραστέσ), πωσ θα µπορεί ο developer να εξασφαλίσει απαλλαγέσ και κατ’ επέκταση τισ µεταβιβάσεισ; Άρα ακριβώσ το αντίθετο θα συµβεί, δηλαδή θα έχει αδυναµία ο developer να µεταβιβάσει και άρα το Κράτοσ θα χάνει απÞ τα µεταβιβαστικά που είναι πολύ περισσÞτερα (7%-8%).

¶·Ú¿Ï¢Ú˜ ∂ȉڿÛÂȘ Κατ’ επέκταση των πιο πάνω ντÞπιοι και ξένοι αγοραστέσ θα βρεθούν εγκλωβισµένοι αυτήσ τησ κατάστασησ (η οποία προεκλήθη απÞ την κατά πολύ αυξηµένη φορολογία, την ανεργία, την µείωση εισοδηµάτων κλπ κλπ). Θα αρχίσουν λοιπÞν οι ιδιαίτερα δραστήριοι ξένοι να διαµαρτύρονται, προκαλώντασ πρÞσθετη πίεση στην ήδη υπάρχουσα διεθνή δυσφήµιση και την αποθάρρυνση νέων αγοραστών ακινήτων. Άρα µια απÞ τισ τρεισ πιο µεγάλεσ βιοµηχανίεσ που φέρνουν εκατοµµύρια στο Κράτοσ, θα υποστεί περαιτέρω καθίζηση και αυτÞ Þταν το ζητούµενο είναι η προσέλκυση ξένων επενδυτών.

∂ÏÏÈ‹˜ ¶ÚfiÙ·ÛË Η πρÞταση ΒÞτση είναι και ελλιπήσ και έπρεπε να προχωρούσε σε πιο ευρεία διευθέτηση. Η πρÞταση αναφέρει Þτι µÞνο τα κατατεθειµένα πωλητήρια έγγραφα θα τυγχάνουν αυτού του “ευεργετήµατοσ”. Και προσθέτουµε γιατί; Εάν κάποιοσ αγÞρασε την µονάδα του και δεν κατάθεσε το έγγραφο, πρέπει να τιµωρείται; Φθάνει να µπορεί να το αποδείξει Þτι το αγÞρασε και πÞτε. Π.χ. να υποβάλει το πωλητήριο έγγραφο, πληρωµή τησ προκαταβολήσ και δÞσεων και σε περίπτωση παράδοσησ µονάδασ, το έγγραφο παραλαβήσ και τουσ λογαριασµούσ των υπηρεσιών (ρεύµα, νερÞ κλπ). Είναι επίσησ ελλιπήσ διÞτι δεν αναφέρεται µε το ίδιο σκεπτικÞ για τουσ ∆ηµοτικούσ φÞρουσ, αποχετευτικÞ κλπ. Οι ∆ηµοτικοί φÞροι/αποχετευτικÞ θα πρέπει, ωσ έχει σήµερα η απαίτηση των Αρχών, να πληρωθούν Þλοι (και για τισ 100 µονάδεσ) για να επιτραπεί η µεταβίβαση. Άρα εάν οι 40 στο έργο των 100 µονάδων δεν πληρώνουν, σηµαίνει Þτι και οι 100 παραµένουν εγκλωβισµένοι. Σε πίστη και του ΤΕΠ, η φορολογία είναι ανά µονάδα. Ποια λογική υπάρχει κύριε ΠρÞεδρε και µέλη τησ Επιτροπήσ Οικονοµικών; Για µασ που ασχολούµεθα µε τα ακίνητα εδώ και 33 χρÞνια, αλλά µε Þλο το φάσµα τησ διαδικασίασ και Þχι επιµέρουσ, η υφιστάµενη απÞφαση τησ Επιτροπήσ Οικονοµικών είναι συνταγή αυτοκαταστροφήσ στην εισπραξιµÞτητα του Κράτουσ. Ενώ τα στοχευµένα 100 εκ. ευρώ τον χρÞνο απÞ τισ φορολογίεσ είναι ο στÞχοσ, αµφιβάλλουµε εάν φθάνουν τα 50 εκ. ευρώ και αυτά µε κάποια τύχη.

∞¯¿·ÚÔÈ ∞ÁÔÚ·ÛÙ¤˜ Θα οφείλει λοιπÞν ο Χ developer των 100 µονάδων τουσ διάφορουσ φÞρουσ και επειδή Þπωσ προαναφέραµε θα έχει κατά πάσα πιθανÞτητα αδυναµία τησ πληρωµήσ τα οφειλÞµενα ποσά τÞσο του ΤΕΠ Þσο και οι ∆ηµοτικέσ Αρχέσ, οι αρχέσ αυτέσ θα τοποθετήσουν Μέµο σε Þλη την περιουσία του, εισ µια προσπάθεια είσπραξησ. Έτσι εάν ο developer έχει 3 πολυκατοικίεσ και δεν εισπράττει για την µια και οι αγοραστέσ των άλλων δύο θα βρεθούν και αυτοί εγκλωβισµένοι χωρίσ να έχουν χαπάρι για τα άλλα έργα. Άρα πολύπλευρέσ αγωγέσ αγοραστών προσ developers, developers προσ αγοραστέσ κλπ, µε χιλιάδεσ υποθέσεισ στα δικαστήρια µε το ανάλογο κÞστοσ στο Κράτοσ, πλέον τησ δυσφήµισησ που προαναφερθήκαµε. Στο τέλοσ-τέλοσ αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ, αφού καταστρέψαµε τον χρηµατο-πιστωτικÞ τοµέα, µε δική µασ λανθασµένη απÞφαση θα καταστρέψουµε (αυτÞ που αποµένει) και τον τοµέα των ακινήτων.

ÃÚËÌ·ÙÔ‰fiÙ˜ Στο τέλοσ παραµένουν και οι χρηµατοδÞτεσ οι οποίοι αφού δάνεισαν µε στÞχο την ύπαρξη τίτλων µεταβίβασησ δεν θα έχουν και τούτο προσ περαιτέρω υποβάθµιση τουσ - Τι θα είναι το αποτέλεσµα αυτÞ για την Κυπριακή οικονοµία; Λυπούµαστε που είµαστε φορτικοί εδώ και 2 µήνεσ επί του θέµατοσ, χωρίσ ωσ Γραφείο να είµαστε developers, αλλά εάν έχει λάθοσ λÞγω κακήσ/ελλιπούσ πληροφÞρησησ η Επιτροπή Οικονοµικών δεν θα πρέπει να τησ το αναφέρουµε; Αυτέσ οι νοοτροπίεσ έχουν καταστρέψει την Κύπρο και για να αποφύγουµε τα χειρÞτερα απευθυνθηκαµε στην ΤρÞικα, για να τουσ υποδείξουµε Þτι τα πλάνα τουσ/Κύπρου δεν θα εισπράξουν ούτε το ελάχιστο. Σασ πληροφορούµε Þτι η αντίδραση τησ ήταν Þτι δεν θα εισπράξει το Κράτοσ. “Ακούστηκε” µάλιστα απÞ το στρατÞπεδο αυτÞ Þτι σε περίπτωση µη πληρωµήσ του φÞρου ακίνητησ ιδιοκτησίασ να αποκÞπτεται το ρεύµα των µονάδων!! Παναγία µου. Που είναι Þλοι αυτοί οι νεοφώτιστοι φωστήρεσ οικονοµολÞγοι τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ που παρελαύνουν επί καθηµερινήσ βάσησ στα κανάλια και στον τύπο; Που είναι τα κÞµµατα, οι νέοι σύµβουλοι του Προέδρου και που είναι οι τράπεζεσ και η Κεντρική; Είµαστε λοιπÞν ο εισ και µÞνοσ ∆ον Κιχώτησ ή χρησιµοποιώντασ την Βρετανική φράση “I am okay Jack” - Εγώ είµαι καλά και άσε τουσ άλλουσ να κουρεύονται;).

¶ÔÓÙ¿ÚÂÈ ÛÙÔÓ ¯ÂÈÌÂÚÈÓfi ÙÔ˘ÚÈÛÌfi Ë §¿Úӷη ∂ÂÓ‰‡ÛÂȘ €3 33 ÂÎ. Û ÂÓ¤ÚÁÂÈ· Î·È ∞¶∂ Θέµατα που αφορούν την αναβάθµιση του τουριστικού προϊÞντοσ τησ Λάρνακασ συζήτησαν ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Λάρνακασ Ανδρέασ Λουρουτζιάτησ και ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Εταιρείασ Τουριστικήσ Ανάπτυξησ και Προβολήσ Λάρνακασ, Ντίνοσ Λευκαρίτησ. Συγκεκριµένα, αποφασίστηκε η απÞ κοινού συνεργασία Þσον αφορά την παροχή δωρεάν δραστηριοτήτων για τουρίστεσ που θα διαµένουν στη Λάρνακα κατά την περίοδο του επερχÞµενου χειµώνα, περιλαµβανοµένησ και τησ αξιοποίησησ των διαφÞρων εκδηλώσεων του ∆ήµου. Συζητήθηκε επίσησ η δυνατÞτητα δηµιουργίασ υποδοµήσ για πραγµατοποίηση αθληµάτων παραλίασ τα οποία ενδιαφέρουν τουσ χειµερινούσ τουρίστεσ και κυρίωσ αυτούσ που πραγµατοποιούν διακοπέσ µακράσ διαρκείασ, ενώ παρατέθηκαν καινοτÞµεσ εισηγήσεισ για ενίσχυση τησ εµπειρίασ των επισκεπτών στην Αλυκή Λάρνακασ. ΣτÞχοσ των ενεργειών αυτών είναι ο εµπλουτισµÞσ του χειµερινού τουριστικού προϊÞντοσ και η ενίσχυση των κρατήσεων την περίοδο Νοεµβρίου-Μαρτίου καθÞτι διαφαίνεται Þτι ο φετινÞσ χειµώνασ θα είναι ιδιαίτερα δύσκολοσ Þσον αφορά τον τοµέα του τουρισµού. Παράλληλα, συζητήθηκαν διάφορεσ ενέργειεσ ενίσχυσησ τησ αγοράσ των πολιτικών

∂ÂÓ‰˘Ù¤˜ ·fi ÙÔ Â͈ÙÂÚÈÎfi ÂӉȷʤÚÔÓÙ·È Ó’ ·Ó·Ù‡ÍÔ˘Ó ˘Ô‰Ô̤˜ ÛÙÔÓ ÙÔ̤· ÙÔ˘ È·ÙÚÈÎÔ‡ ÙÔ˘ÚÈÛÌÔ‡ ÛÙËÓ §¿Úӷη γάµων. Επίση, αντηλλάγησαν απÞψεισ για ανάδειξη και αξιοποίηση των διατηρητέων οικοδοµών τησ Λάρνακασ. Να σηµειωθεί Þτι τησ υπÞ αναφοράσ σύσκεψησ προηγήθηκε συνάντηση µε δυνητικούσ επενδυτέσ απÞ το εξωτερικÞ που ενδιαφέρονται ν’ αναπτύξουν υποδοµέσ στον τοµέα του ιατρικού τουρισµού, στουσ οποίουσ οι κ.κ. Λουρουτζιάτησ και Λευκαρίτησ τÞνισαν τα συγκριτικά πλεονεκτήµατα τησ Λάρνακασ ωσ περιφερειακÞσ κÞµβοσ υπηρεσιών.

Με την πλήρη εφαρµογή και ολοκλήρωση των σχεδίων για επενδύσεισ εξοικονÞµησησ ενέργειασ και ενθάρρυνσησ τησ ηλεκτροπαραγωγήσ απÞ ανανεώσιµεσ πηγέσ ενέργειασ (απε), προβλέπεται η πραγµατοποίηση επενδύσεων συνολικού ύψουσ πέραν των 33 εκ. ευρώ τα επÞµενα δύο χρÞνια περίπου. O Έφοροσ Ελέγχου Κρατικών Ενισχύσεων, µε ειδική απÞφασή του µε ηµεροµηνία 19 Ιουλίου 2013, ενέκρινε το σχέδιο χορηγιών του Υπουργείου Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού για ενθάρρυνση τησ χρήσησ των ανανεώσιµων πηγών ενέργειασ και τησ εξοικονÞµησησ ενέργειασ σε υφιστάµενεσ και νέεσ επιχειρήσεισ. Το Σχέδιο, αφού αξιολογήθηκε, κρίθηκε ωσ απολύτωσ συµβατÞ µε τουσ κανÞνεσ των κρατικών ενισχύσεων και τησ πολιτικήσ ανταγωνισµού τησ ΕΕ και, θα παρέχει ενισχύσεισ απÞ 15% έωσ και 40% επί του συνολικού επενδυτικού κÞστουσ, µε τον προϋπολογισµÞ του σχεδίου να ανέρχεται σε 3,5 εκ. ευρώ. ΕπιπρÞσθετα, ο Έφοροσ έκρινε Þτι το σχέδιο που απευθύνεται αποκλειστικά σε νοικοκυριά και φορείσ που δεν ασκούν οικονοµική δραστηριÞτητα δεν συνιστά κρατική ενίσχυση, καθÞτι οι δικαιούχοι του δεν εµπί-

πτουν στην έννοια τησ επιχείρησησ, ωσ εκ τούτου κρίθηκε Þτι δύναται να εφαρµοστεί ελεύθερα απÞ την αρµÞδια αρχή. Η ενίσχυση θα χορηγείται ωσ ποσοστÞ επί των επενδυτικών δαπανών και θα καλύπτει απÞ 30% έωσ 55% του συνολικού κÞστουσ, µε τον προϋπολογισµÞ του σχεδίου να ανέρχεται σε 5,5 εκ. ευρώ. Για το σχέδιο ενθάρρυνσησ τησ ηλεκτροπαραγωγήσ απÞ µεγάλα εµπορικά αιολικά, ηλιοθερµικά και φωτοβολταϊκά συστήµατα, ωσ συνέχεια προηγούµενου εγκεκριµένου σχεδίου, κρίθηκε Þτι οι αλλαγέσ που έχουν επενεχθεί σε αυτÞ δεν καθιστούν το µέτρο ωσ νέα ενίσχυση και συνεπώσ δύναται να τεθεί σε εφαρµογή στη ∆ηµοκρατία. Το σχέδιο αυτÞ καλύπτει έργα µεγάλησ κλίµακασ, οι επενδυτέσ των οποίων θα λαµβάνουν εγγυηµένη τιµή πώλησησ τησ παραγÞµενησ ενέργειασ στην ΑΗΚ για 20 χρÞνια. Τα τρία αυτά σχέδια δύνανται να προκηρυχθούν άµεσα απÞ το Υπουργείο Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού και οι εν δυνάµει δικαιούχοι να υποβάλουν τισ αιτήσεισ τουσ για αξιολÞγηση και έγκριση, µε σκοπÞ την έναρξη νέων επενδύσεων στην εξοικονÞµηση ενέργειασ.


ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2013

4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

™Ù· $120 ‰È˜ Ô ÂÙ‹ÛÈÔ˜ Ù˙›ÚÔ˜ ÙˆÓ Î·˙›ÓÔ ·ÁÎÔÛÌ›ˆ˜ ÙÔ 2011 Στο µοντέλο του integrated casino resort, κατέληξε η κυπριακή κυβέρνηση ωσ του ιδανικÞτερου συνδυασµού καζίνο και ξενοδοχειακών υποδοµών, να δηµιουργηθεί στην Κύπρο, ανάβοντασ έτσι το» πράσινο φωσ». Η σχετική απÞφαση, βασίστηκε σε µελέτη του οίκου Deloitte και η διαδικασία παραχώρησησ τησ άδειασ άρχισε αµέσωσ και θα ολοκληρωθεί σε 12 µήνεσ. Σύµφωνα µε την προκαταρκτική έκθεση τησ Deloitte, το project περιλαµβάνει 100 τραπέζια πονταρίσµατοσ, 1.000 κουλοχέρηδεσ, 1.000 δωµάτια ξενοδοχείου, καταστήµατα, συνεδριακούσ χώρουσ και εγκαταστάσεισ διασκέδασησ και ψυχαγωγίασ. Πάντωσ πρώτα θα πρέπει να γίνει οικονοµικοτεχνική µελέτη για επιλογή τησ κατάλληλησ τοποθεσίασ που θα κατασκευαστεί ο γιγαντιαίοσ χώροσ που θα φιλοξενεί το καζίνο, ξενοδοχείο, καταστήµατα, επιχειρήσεισ εστίασησ και ψυχαγωγίασ και ίσωσ κάποιο θεµατικÞ πάρκο. Οι διαφωνίεσ για την τοποθεσία εγκατά-

στασησ του Καζίνο υπάρχουν µε παράγοντεσ του τÞπου να τονίζουν πωσ δεν θεωρείται πωσ ένασ κατεξοχήν τουριστικÞσ προορισµÞσ Þπωσ η ΛεµεσÞσ ή η ελεύθερη περιοχή Αµµοχώστου έχουν και προτεραιÞτητα σε αυτÞ το θέµα. Το κÞστοσ τησ δηµιουργίασ του υπολογίζεται στα 400-500 εκ. ευρώ και τα ετήσια έσοδα για την οικονοµία απÞ τη λειτουργία του γύρω στα 450 εκ. ΑπÞ αυτά τα 60 εκ. θα είναι οι φÞροι που θα εισπράττει το κράτοσ. Με την ολοκλήρωση του έργου θα δηµιουργηθεί µια µικρή πÞλη-θέρετρο σε περιοχή που θα επιλεγεί απÞ τον επενδυτή, στην οποία οι διευκολύνσεισ και εγκαταστάσεισ για τυχερά παιχνίδια θα αποτελούν το 25% του συνÞλου τησ Þλησ ανάπτυξησ, ενώ το υπÞλοιπο θα αποτελείται απÞ ξενοδοχείο, καταστήµατα, εστιατÞρια και άλλεσ υποδοµέσ ψυχαγωγίασ. ΣτÞχοσ τησ Κυβέρνησησ είναι να προσελκύσει ένα µεγάλο επενδυτή διεθνούσ εµβέλειασ µε σκοπÞ να δηµιουργηθεί στην Κύπρο

ένα καζίνο resort, το οποίο θα είναι σηµείο αναφοράσ, Þχι µÞνο στην περιοχή τησ Ανατολικήσ Μεσογείου αλλά σε Þλη την Ευρώπη. Nα σηµειωθεί Þτι ο ετήσιοσ τζίροσ στα καζίνο ολÞκληρου του πλανήτη ξεπέρασε τα 120 δισ δολάρια το 2011, ενώ η µεγαλύτερη πίτα αυτού του τζίρου εντοπίζεται στισ ΗΠΑ, οι οποίεσ κατέχουν σχεδÞν το 50% τησ παγκÞσµιασ αγοράσ του νÞµιµου τζÞγου. Οι µεγαλύτερεσ εταιρείεσ καζίνο στον κÞσµο σύµφωνα µε στοιχεία του Bloomberg είναι: 1.SJM Holding Ltd µε έσοδα 9,7 δισ. δολάρια το 2011 2. Las Vegas Sands Corp. µε έσοδα 7,4 δισ. δολάρια το 2011 3. Caesars Enertainment µε έσοδα 6,2 δισ. δολάρια το 2011 Άξιο αναφοράσ είναι και το γεγονÞσ Þτι ο µεγαλύτεροσ τζίροσ ανά περιοχή εντοπίζεται στο Μακάου τησ Κίνασ, στο Λασ Βέγκασ των ΗΠΑ αλλά και στη Σιγκαπούρη. Η µεγάλη δια-

™ÙËÓ ‰ËÌÈÔ˘ÚÁ›· η˙›ÓÔ˘ ıÂÚ¤ÙÚÔ˘ ÚÔ¯ˆÚ¿ Ë ∫‡ÚÔ˜ φορά στισ τρεισ, προαναφερθείσεσ περιπτώσεισ είναι πωσ το Μακάου και το Λασ Βέγκασ διαθέτουν 33 και 122 καζίνο αντίστοιχα και η Σιγκαπούρη µÞλισ δύο, τα οποία λειτουργούν για µÞνο τέσσερα χρÞνια. Ο τζίροσ που πραγµατοποιήθηκε το 2011 στα καζίνο του Μακάου ξεπέρασε τα 28 δισ. δολάρια, ενώ το ανάλογο νούµερο στο Λασ Βέγκασ ανήλθε στα 10 δισ. δολάρια. Η Σιγκαπούρη µε δύο καζίνο πραγµατοποίησε πέραν των 5 δισ δολαρίων στισ επιχειρήσεισ τζÞγου που λειτουργούν στη χώρα.

63,9 ÂÎ. Û ΢ÚÈ·ÎÔ‡˜ ÊÔÚ›˜ E˘Úˆ·˚ο ÎÔÓ‰‡ÏÈ· €6 ΧρηµατοδÞτηση απÞ ευρωπαϊκούσ πÞρουσ, που φτάνει τα 63,9 εκατοµµύρια ευρώ, εξασφάλισαν κυπριακοί φορείσ µέσα απÞ τη συµµετοχή τουσ στο 7ο ΠρÞγραµµα Πλαίσιο τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ για Έρευνα και Τεχνολογική Ανάπτυξη 2007-2013, σύµφωνα µε ανακοίνωση του Ιδρύµατοσ Προώθησησ Έρευνασ (ΙΠΕ). «Οι επιδÞσεισ τησ Κύπρου κρίνονται ωσ ιδιαίτερα ικανοποιητικέσ, αφού την τελευταία πενταετία υπογράφηκαν συνολικά 289 συµβÞλαια για εκπÞνηση ερευνητικών έργων, τα οποία επιλέγηκαν µε άκρωσ ανταγωνιστική διαδικασία», τονίζει ο ΓενικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ του Ιδρύµατοσ Προώθησησ Έρευνασ (ΙΠΕ) Βασίλειοσ Τσάκαλοσ. Τα αποτελέσµατα αυτά, προσθέτει ο κ. Τσάκαλοσ, αποδεικνύουν τη δυνατÞτητα των ερευνητών τησ χώρασ µασ να ανταγωνιστούν τουσ συναδέλφουσ τουσ απÞ Þλεσ τισ άλλεσ χώρεσ τησ Ε.Ε. σε υψηλÞ επίπεδο ερευνητικήσ αριστείασ. «Η επιτυχία των κυπριακών φορέων δηµι-

ουργεί ευοίωνεσ προοπτικέσ για περαιτέρω ανάπτυξη τησ έρευνασ και τησ καινοτοµίασ στην Κύπρο, αφού διευρύνει σηµαντικά την εµπειρία των κυπριακών φορέων, αναβαθµίζει τισ δυνατÞτητεσ του ανθρώπινου δυναµικού, ενισχύει τη διεθνή δικτύωση και συνεισφέρει στη χρήση σύγχρονων ερευνητικών υποδοµών». Ùπωσ αναφέρεται στην ανακοίνωση, τα Προγράµµατα Πλαίσιο τησ Ε.Ε. αποτελούν το βασικÞ µηχανισµÞ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ για τη χρηµατοδÞτηση ερευνητικών δραστηριοτήτων και σε αυτά εντάσσονται δράσεισ και εργαλεία για την προώθηση τησ έρευνασ σε Þλα τα επίπεδα και σε Þλουσ τουσ ερευνητικούσ τοµείσ αιχµήσ. Το τρέχον Έβδοµο ΠρÞγραµµα Πλαίσιο (7ο ΠΠ) προκηρύχθηκε το ∆εκέµβριο του 2006 και είναι το αποτέλεσµα πολυετών διαβουλεύσεων µε την επιστηµονική κοινÞτητα, ερευνητικά ιδρύµατα, φορείσ χάραξησ πολιτικών και άλλουσ ενδιαφερÞµενουσ φορείσ. Το ΠρÞγραµµα καλύπτει τη χρονική περίοδο

™˘ÓÂÚÁ·Û›· STAROIL Ì CASTROL Με τη διεθνώσ αναγνωρισµένη εταιρεία παροχήσ εξειδικευµένων λύσεων στη λίπανση CASTROL, συνεργάζεται η κυπριακή εταιρεία πετρελαιοειδών STAROIL. Η CASTROL είναι µέλοσ του οµίλου BP, και µπορεί να παρέχει στουσ Κύπριουσ καταναλωτέσ πέραν τησ υψηλήσ ποιÞτητασ καυσίµων και µια ευρεία γκάµα εξειδικευµένων λιπαντικών. Τα πρατήρια καυσίµων τησ STAROIL εξυπηρετούν το κυπριακÞ κοινÞ αποκλειστικά µε λιπαντικά CASTROL. Σε Þλα τα πρατήρια τησ STAROIL διατίθεται το λιπαντικÞ Castrol Magnatec 10W-40 A3/B4, που βασίζεται στην τεχνολογία «έξυπνα µÞρια» που προστατεύουν τον κινητήρα κατά τη διάρκεια του ζεστάµατοσ, Þπου συµβαίνει το 75% των φθορών. Τα έξυπνα µÞρια του Castrol Magnatec προσκολλώνται και συνδέονται στα κρίσιµα τµήµατα του κινητήρα, παρέχοντασ προστασία πριν, κατά τη διάρκεια του ταξιδιού σασ αλλά και µετά το πέρασ αυτού. Το λιπαντικÞ Castrol Magnatec 10W-40 εξασφαλίζει εγγυηµένη και συνεχή προστασία για Þλεσ τισ συνθήκεσ οδήγησησ, κάτω απÞ οποιεσδήποτε θερµοκρασίεσ. Την ποιÞτητα του Castrol Magnatec 10W-40 επιβεβαιώνουν οι προδιαγραφέσ και εγκρίσεισ: API SM/CF, ACEA A3/B4, VW 505 01/ 505 00, MBApproval 229.1 και Fiat 9.55535-D2. Τα πρατήρια τησ STAROIL βρίσκονται σε περιοχέσ στρατηγικήσ σηµασίασ για την εταιρεία, µε βάση το σχέδιο ανάπτυξησ που έχει καταρτίσει απÞ το 2011, στην κοινÞτητα ΑυγÞρου, στο Τραχώνι, τα Πέρα Ορεινήσ, το Κίτι, στη Χλώρακα τησ Πάφου και το πιο πρÞσφατο στο Τσέρι.

2007-2013 και έχει συνολικÞ προϋπολογισµÞ που φτάνει τα 53,2 δισ ευρώ. ΠρÞσφατα ολοκληρώθηκε η διαβούλευση µεταξύ των θεσµικών οργάνων τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ για τον νέο χρηµατοδοτικÞ µηχανισµÞ που θα καλύπτει την περίοδο 2014-2020 και θα φέρει την ονοµασία «Ορίζοντασ 2020». Συγκεκριµένα, έχουν ήδη αποφασιστεί οι κανÞνεσ συµµετοχήσ και χρηµατοδÞτησησ, καθώσ και η κατανοµή των περίπου 70,2 δισ ευρώ που θα διατεθούν κατά τη διάρκεια του Προγράµµατοσ. Το ΠρÞγραµµα αναµένεται να ψηφιστεί απÞ το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Κοινοβούλιο το φθινÞπωρο του 2013. Κύριοι στÞχοι είναι η αντιµετώπιση των σύγχρονων κοινωνικών προκλήσεων στην Ευρώπη, η επίτευξη επιστηµονικήσ αριστείασ και η ισχυροποίηση τησ Ευρώπησ ωσ ηγέτιδασ βιοµηχανικήσ δύναµησ. Ο «Ορίζοντασ 2020», αναµένεται να συµβάλει καθοριστικά στην υλοποίηση τησ Ένωσησ Καινοτοµίασ, µιασ εµβληµατικήσ

πρωτοβουλίασ που αποτελεί µέροσ τησ Στρατηγικήσ «Ευρώπη 2020» και έχει ωσ στÞχο την ενίσχυση τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ τησ Ευρώπησ, σε παγκÞσµιο επίπεδο. Το ΙΠΕ έχει την ευθύνη διαχείρισησ και προώθησησ του 7ου ΠΠ στην Κύπρο. Προκειµένου να διευκολυνθεί η συµµετοχή κυπριακών φορέων στο ΠρÞγραµµα, λειτουργοί του ΙΠΕ έχουν οριστεί ωσ Εθνικά Σηµεία Επαφήσ για κάθε Θεµατική ΠροτεραιÞτητα ή ∆ράση του 7ου Προγράµµατοσ, προσφέροντασ στουσ ενδιαφερÞµενουσ ερευνητέσ και ερευνητικούσ φορείσ πληροφÞρηση και συµβουλευτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ. Οι υπηρεσίεσ περιλαµβάνουν γενική ενηµέρωση για το 7ο ΠΠ, τισ διαδικασίεσ και τουσ κανÞνεσ συµµετοχήσ, συµβουλέσ για την ετοιµασία και υποβολή των ερευνητικών προτάσεων καθώσ και τη διαχείριση των Έργων, ενώ παράλληλα διοργανώνονται δραστηριÞτητεσ εκπαίδευσησ και προβολήσ, καταλήγει η ανακοίνωση.

∞ÈÙ‹ÛÂȘ ÁÈ· Ù· ‰ÈÎÔÈÓÔÙÈο ‚Ú·‚›· ™Ù¤ÏÈÔ˜ ÷Ù˙ËȈ¿ÓÓÔ˘ Ωσ τισ 16 Αυγούστου µπορούν να υποβάλουν αιτήσεισ επιχειρηµατικέσ οµάδεσ συνεργασίασ Ε/κ και Τ/κ για τα Βραβεία Στέλιου Χατζηιωάννου, στα πλαίσια των οποίων θα δοθούν µέχρι δέκα βραβεία ωσ και 10.000 ευρώ. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται σε ανακοίνωση του φιλανθρωπικού ιδρύµατοσ «Στέλιοσ», ο θεσµÞσ των βραβείων που λειτουργεί απÞ το 2009 έχει δώσει µέχρι σήµερα σε 20 επιχειρηµατικούσ συνεταιρισµούσ που αποτελούνται απÞ ένα Ε/κ και ένα Τ/κ βραβεία αξίασ 1 εκ. ευρώ. Τα βραβεία, προστίθεται, «προωθούν την επιχειρηµατική δικοινοτική συνεργασία σε Þλο το νησί, δίνοντασ σε υποσχÞµενα επαγγελµατικά εγχειρήµατα τη χρηµατοδοτική ώθηση που χρειάζονται για να µεγαλώσουν». Αναφέρεται ακÞµη Þτι «θα δοθούν µέχρι δέκα βραβεία των 10.000 ευρώ στισ οµάδεσ που θα επιδείξουν την καλύτερη δικοινοτική συνεργασία και αµοιβαία εµπιστοσύνη σε µια εκδήλωση που θα διοργανωθεί απÞ το Ίδρυµα στισ 10 Σεπτεµβρίου 2013. «Ùταν ξεκινούσα αυτά τα βραβεία πριν περίπου πέντε χρÞνια, η Κύπροσ ήταν ένα πολύ πιο εύπορο µέροσ για να δουλέψει κανείσ», ανέφερε ο κ. Χατζηιωάννου, προσθέτοντασ Þτι «τώρα που είµαστε στη µέση µιασ οικο-

νοµικήσ κρίσησ, είναι ακÞµα πιο σηµαντικÞ να θυµÞµαστε Þτι η προώθηση τησ δικοινοτικήσ επιχειρηµατικÞτητασ είναι ο καλύτεροσ τρÞποσ τÞσο για την επίτευξη ειρήνησ στο νησί Þσο και για τη δηµιουργία θέσεων εργασίασ». Τα κριτήρια συµµετοχήσ προβλέπουν Þτι οι επιχειρηµατικέσ οµάδεσ πρέπει να απαρτίζονται τουλάχιστον απÞ ένα/µία Ελληνοκύπριοσ/α και ένα/µία Τουρκοκύπριοσ/α, οι οποίοι πρέπει να έχουν γεννηθεί στην Κύπρο. Παράλληλα, η δηµιουργία νέων οµάδων ωσ αποτέλεσµα τησ βράβευσησ ενθαρρύνεται θερµά αφού είναι ένα µέτρο οικοδÞµησησ εµπιστοσύνησ µεταξύ των δύο κοινοτήτων. Οι επιχειρηµατικέσ δραστηριÞτητεσ πρέπει να έχουν ωσ βάση την Κύπρο και να είναι διαθέσιµεσ σε πελάτεσ σε Þλο το νησί. Οι µη κερδοσκοπικέσ προσπάθειεσ θα ληφθούν και αυτέσ υπÞψη ωσ αιτήσεισ, εφÞσον τα πιο πάνω κριτήρια ικανοποιούνται και δεδοµένου Þτι οι δραστηριÞτητεσ διεξάγονται µε τρÞπο παρÞµοιο αυτού µιασ επιχείρησησ. Οι αιτητέσ πρέπει να µπορούν να επικοινωνούν στην αγγλική γλώσσα και µέσω ηλεκτρονικού ταχυδροµείου.


ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2013

financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5

RICS: ™˘Ó¯›˙ÂÙ·È Ë Î·Ùڷ·Ϸ ÛÙȘ ÙÈ̤˜ ·ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ Σηµαντικέσ µειώσεισ παγκύπρια κατέγραψε κατά το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2013, ο ∆είκτησ Τιµών Ακινήτων του RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) Κύπρου. Οι µειώσεισ καταγράφονται σε Þλεσ τισ µεγάλεσ αστικέσ περιοχέσ, µε τισ τιµέσ πώλησησ και ενοικίων να εµφανίζουν πτώση. Η Λευκωσία και η ΛεµεσÞσ βρέθηκαν στη δυσµενέστερη θέση, καθώσ ήταν οι λιγÞτερο επηρεαζÞµενεσ περιοχή µέχρι και το δεύτερο εξάµηνο του 2012. Ο δείκτησ RICS παρακολουθεί τισ τιµέσ και τα ενοίκια των ακινήτων σε Þλεσ τισ επαρχίεσ και βασίζεται σε µεθοδολογία που αναπτύχθηκε απÞ το Πανεπιστήµιο του Reading, του Ηνωµένου Βασιλείου. Τα αποτελέσµατα τησ 14ησ και 15ησ έκδοσησ του ∆είκτη Τιµών Ακινήτων του RICS, εξήχθησαν σε συνεργασία µε το Σύνδεσµο ΕπιστηµÞνων Επιµετρητών ΟικονοµολÞγων Κατασκευών Κύπρου (ΣΕΕΟKΚ) και το Σύνδεσµο ΕπιστηµÞνων Εκτιµητών Ακινήτων Κύπρου (ΣΕΕΑΚ). Σε τριµηνιαία βάση, το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2013 παγκύπρια, οι τιµέσ για κατοικίεσ, τÞσο για σπίτια, Þσο και για διαµερίσµατα, παρουσίασαν πτώση τησ τάξησ του 5.4% και 4.4% αντίστοιχα, µε τη µεγαλύτερη µείωση να καταγράφεται στην Πάφο (8.8% για τα διαµερίσµατα) και στη Λευκωσία (7.8% για τα σπίτια). Παγκύπρια, οι τιµέσ των καταστηµάτων µειώθηκαν κατά µέσο Þρο 7.4%, των γραφείων κατά 4.1% και των αποθηκών κατά 5.4%. Σε σύγκριση µε το αντίστοιχο πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2012, οι τιµέσ των διαµερισµάτων µειώθηκαν κατά 10.6%, των σπιτιών κατά 7.6%, των καταστηµάτων κατά 19.3%, των γραφείων 10.9% και των αποθηκών κατά 12.4%. Κατά το δεύτερο τρίµηνο του τρέχοντοσ έτουσ, παγκύπρια, οι τιµέσ για κατοικίεσ, τÞσο για σπίτια, Þσο και για διαµερίσµατα, παρουσίασαν τριµηνιαία πτώση τησ τάξησ του 4.2% και 5.0% αντίστοιχα, µε τη µεγαλύτερη µείωση να καταγράφεται στην ΑµµÞχωστο (6.7% για τα διαµερίσµατα) και στη Λάρνακα (9.2% για τα σπίτια). Παγκύπρια, οι τιµέσ των καταστηµάτων µειώθηκαν κατά µέσο Þρο 7.8%, των γραφείων κατά 4.4% και των αποθηκών κατά 5.9%. Σε σύγκριση µε το αντίστοιχο δεύτερο τρίµηνο του 2012, οι τιµέσ των διαµερισµάτων µειώθηκαν κατά 12.6%, των σπιτιών κατά 11.2%, των καταστηµάτων κατά 23.3%, των γραφείων 13.0% και των αποθηκών κατά 14.8%. Σε Þτι αφορά τη µέση τιµή ενοικίασησ κατά το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2013, σε ολÞκληρη την Κύπρο παρουσίασε τριµηνιαία πτώση 3.7% στα διαµερίσµατα, 2.6% στα σπίτια, στα καταστήµατα 9.0%, στισ αποθήκεσ 7.6% και στα γραφεία 5.2%. Συγκρίνοντασ τα ενοίκια µε εκείνα του πρώτου τριµήνου του 2012, οι τιµέσ ενοικίασησ υποχώρησαν κατά 9.1% για τα διαµερίσµατα, 7.3% για σπίτια, 20.7% για καταστήµατα, 9.9% για γραφεία και 16.2% για αποθήκεσ. Κατά το δεύτερο τρίµηνο, η πτωτική τάση συνεχίστηκε σε ολÞκληρη την Κύπρο παρουσιάζοντασ τριµηνιαία πτώση

5.2% στα διαµερίσµατα, 5.4% στα σπίτια, στα καταστήµατα 12.0%, στισ αποθήκεσ 7.1% και στα γραφεία 8.8%. Συγκρίνοντασ τα ενοίκια µε εκείνα του δεύτερου τριµήνου του 2012, οι τιµέσ ενοικίασησ υποχώρησαν κατά 12.0% για τα διαµερίσµατα, 11.9% για σπίτια, 28.3% για καταστήµατα, 15.9% για γραφεία και 19.4% για αποθήκεσ. Το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2013, Þλεσ οι κατηγορίεσ σε Þλεσ τισ γεωγραφικέσ περιοχέσ εξακολούθησαν να επηρεάζονται, µε αυτέσ που κατέγραψαν πρώτεσ τη µεγαλύτερη πτώση στον τοµέα των ακινήτων, τώρα να έχουν το χαµηλÞτερο ρυθµÞ µείωσησ. Σε Þτι αφορά την απÞδοση των επενδύσεων, στο τέλοσ του πρώτου τριµήνου του 2013, οι αποδÞσεισ βρίσκονταν στο 3.9% για διαµερίσµατα, 2,0% για σπίτια, 5.9% για καταστήµατα, 4.5% για αποθήκεσ και 4.6% για γραφεία. Στο τέλοσ του δεύτερου τριµήνου του 2013, οι αποδÞσεισ βρίσκονταν στο 3.8% για διαµερίσµατα, 2,0% για σπίτια, 5.6% για καταστήµατα, 4.5% για αποθήκεσ και 4.3% για γραφεία. Η παράλληλη µείωση των τιµών αλλά και των ενοικίων, κατά το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2013, έχει ωσ αποτέλεσµα τη διαµÞρφωση ενÞσ σκηνικού σχετικήσ σταθερÞτητασ και µειωµένων αποδÞσεων. ΑυτÞ υποδεικνύει πωσ υπάρχει ακÞµη περιθώριο για περαιτέρω διακυµάνσεισ, αφού υπάρχει σηµαντική διαφορά µεταξύ τησ απÞδοσησ και του επενδυτικού ρίσκου. Σύµφωνα µε τον Παύλο Λοΐζου, MRICS, «Κατά το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2013, η κυπριακή οικονοµία επηρεάστηκε απÞ την περαιτέρω επιβράδυνση που καταγράφηκε (ετήσια µείωση του ΑΕΠ κατά 3.3%), την αύξηση τησ ανεργίασ (ανήλθε στο 15,8% κατά τον Μάρτιο του 2013), τη συνεχÞµενη αναταραχή στον εγχώριο τραπεζικÞ και οικονοµικÞ τοµέα, καθώσ επίσησ και απÞ τισ συνέπειεσ τησ πολιτικήσ αβεβαιÞτητασ λÞγω των Προεδρικών Εκλογών. Το τέλοσ του τριµήνου σηµαδεύτηκε απÞ τισ αποφάσεισ του Eurogroup στισ 15 και 27 Μαρτίου για το «bail-in» των καταθετών των δύο µεγάλων τραπεζών, το κλείσιµο τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ και την επιβολή σηµαντικών περιορισµών. Η τάση αβεβαιÞτητασ συνεχίστηκε και κατά το δεύτερο τρίµηνο του 2013, αφού η κυπριακή οικονοµία κλήθηκε να αντιµετωπίσει τισ συνέπειεσ απÞ τισ αποφάσεισ του Eurogroup. Οι συνέπειεσ αυτών των αποφάσεων εκτυλίχθηκαν κατά τη διάρκεια του τριµήνου, Þπου δεν επιτρεπÞταν τραπεζική χρηµατοδÞτηση και οι καταθέσεισ ήταν µπλοκαρισµένεσ στουσ τραπεζικούσ λογαριασµούσ. Λαµβάνοντασ υπÞψη τισ επικρατούσεσ οικονοµικέσ συνθήκεσ και την αναταραχή στο κυπριακÞ τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα, υπήρχε έλλειψη συναλλαγών κατά τη διάρκεια του δεύτερου τριµήνου. Οι εγχώριοι αγοραστέσ, ιδιαίτερα, ήταν πιο οξυδερκείσ, καθώσ η αύξηση τησ ανεργίασ και οι χειρÞτερεσ προοπτικέσ τησ τοπικήσ οικονοµίασ οδήγησαν σε απÞτοµη µείωση του ενδιαφέροντοσ. Παράλληλα, οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι ήταν ανέφικτο να έχουν πρÞσβαση σε τραπεζι-

κέσ χρηµατοδοτήσεισ ή στισ καταθέσεισ τουσ». Σύµφωνα µε τον Χαράλαµπο Πετρίδη, MRICS, ΠρÞεδρο του ΣΕΕΑΚ, «Κατά το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2013 η οικονοµική και πολιτική κατάσταση στην Κύπρο ήταν ασταθήσ, ενώ η πιστοληπτική ικανÞτητα του κράτουσ υποβαθµιζÞταν. Τα γεγονÞτα που έχουν διαδραµατιστεί το Μάρτιο, µε την αναδιάρθρωση των δύο µεγαλύτερων τραπεζών και το ‘κούρεµα’ καταθέσεων, είναι πρωτÞγνωρα. Η αστάθεια στην αγορά, η έλλειψη ρευστÞτητασ, αλλά και η έλλειψη συναλλαγών/αγοραπωλησιών, αποτελούν παράγοντεσ που επηρεάζουν άµεσα τισ αξίεσ των ακινήτων. Η νέα τάξη πραγµάτων έχει επηρεάσει την κτηµαταγορά και τισ αγοραπωλησίεσ κυρίωσ λÞγω τησ έλλειψησ ρευστÞτητασ και εµπιστοσύνησ. Η αγορά αναµένεται να συνεχίσει τη πτωτική πορεία ενώ ξένοι επενδυτέσ έχουν επιδείξει ενδιαφέρον για επενδύσεισ σε ακίνητα εκµεταλλευÞµενοι τα προβλήµατα τησ αγοράσ». Η µεθοδολογία και τα πορίσµατα τησ έρευνασ είναι διαθέσιµα στην ιστοσελίδα του RICS www.joinricsineurope.eu/en/na/view/rics-cyprus ∆Ô RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) Ô˘ ‰Ú·ÛÙËÚÈÔÔÈÂ›Ù·È Î·È ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ, Â›Ó·È Ô ÌÂÁ·Ï‡ÙÂÚÔ˜ Û ·ÚÈıÌfi ÌÂÏÒÓ ‰ÈÂıÓ‹˜ ÔÚÁ·ÓÈÛÌfi˜ ÁÈ· Â·ÁÁÂÏ̷ٛ˜ Ù˘ ‚ÈÔÌ˯·Ó›·˜ ·ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ, ÔÈÎÔ‰ÔÌÒÓ Î·È Û¯ÂÙÈÎÒÓ ÂÚÈ‚·ÏÏÔÓÙÈÎÒÓ ıÂÌ¿ÙˆÓ. ªÂ 140.000 ̤ÏË Û 140 ¯ÒÚ˜, ÙÔ RICS ·ÔÙÂÏ› ÚˆÙÔfiÚ· ËÁ‹ ÁÓÒÛ˘ ¿Óˆ Û ı¤Ì·Ù· Ô˘ ·ÊÔÚÔ‡Ó ·Î›ÓËÙ·, ÚÔÛʤÚÔÓÙ·˜ ·ÓÂÍ¿ÚÙËÙ˜ Î·È ·ÓÙÈÎÂÈÌÂÓÈΤ˜ Û˘Ì‚Ô˘Ï¤˜ Û ΢‚ÂÚÓ‹ÛÂȘ Î·È ‰ÈÂıÓ›˜ ÔÚÁ·ÓÈÛÌÔ‡˜.

§ÈÁfiÙ fiÙÂÚ· Ï·ÛÙ¿ ÛÙËÓ Î˘Úȷ΋ ·ÁÔÚ¿

C h r y s a l i s L E A P - ∏ ÚÒÙË Ï·ÙÊfiÚ fiÚÌ· ÂÈÙ¿¯˘ÓÛ˘ ȉÂÒÓ ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ

Μείωση σηµειώθηκε στα πλαστά χαρτονοµίσµατα ευρώ στην Κύπρο το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2013, σύµφωνα µε στοιχεία τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ, ενώ στο σύνολο τησ Ευρωζώνησ παρουσιάστηκε αύξηση. Σύµφωνα µε την Κεντρική Τράπεζα τησ Κύπρου, «κατά τη διάρκεια του πρώτου εξαµήνου του 2013 αποσύρθηκαν απÞ την κυκλοφορία 317.000 τεµάχια παραχαραγµένων τραπεζογραµµατίων ευρώ διαφÞρων αξιών». Κατά την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2012, προστίθεται, «είχαν αποσυρθεί 251.000 τεµάχια παραχαραγµένων τραπεζογραµµατίων». Τα τραπεζογραµµάτια των 50 και 20 ευρώ παρουσίασαν τα ψηλÞτερα ποσοστά παραχάραξησ, αντιπροσωπεύοντασ το 44,1% και το 38,0% του συνÞλου, αντίστοιχα». «Στην Κύπρο, κατά την ίδια περίοδο, εντοπίσθηκαν και αποσύρθηκαν απÞ την κυκλοφορία 147 τεµάχια παραχαραγµένων τραπεζογραµµατίων ευρώ διαφÞρων αξιών», αναφέρεται. Προστίθεται Þτι «τα τραπεζογραµµάτια των 50 και 20 ευρώ παρουσιάζουν, και στην περίπτωση τησ Κύπρου, τα ψηλÞτερα ποσοστά παραχάραξησ, αντιπροσωπεύοντασ το 39,5% και 38,1% του συνÞλου». Σηµειώνεται Þτι «κατά τη διάρκεια του πρώτου εξαµήνου του 2013 οι ποσÞτητεσ τραπεζογραµµατίων που κατατέθηκαν σε πιστωτικά ιδρύµατα ήταν σηµαντικά χαµηλÞτερεσ σε σχέση µε την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2012 λÞγω των ιδιαζουσών συνθηκών που επεκράτησαν». «Σε σύγκριση µε τον αριθµÞ γνήσιων τραπεζογραµµατίων ευρώ σε κυκλοφορία, η ποσÞτητα των πλαστών παραµένει πολύ µικρή», αναφέρεται. ΩστÞσο, η Κεντρική συνιστά στο κοινÞ προσοχή.

Η Chrysalis LEAP, µια εντελώσ νέα πρωτοβουλία, η οποία έχει σαν στÞχο τησ να βοηθήσει φιλÞδοξουσ επιχειρηµατίεσ να µετατρέψουν τισ ιδέεσ τουσ σε βιώσιµεσ επιχειρήσεισ, ανοίγει την περίοδο υποβολήσ αιτήσεων που θα διαρκέσει απÞ τισ 15 µέχρι τισ 30 Ιουλίου, 2013. ΠρÞκειται για την πρώτη πλατφÞρµα επιτάχυνσησ ιδεών στην Κύπρο, σκοπÞσ τησ οποίασ είναι να παρέχει στισ νεοσύστατεσ οµάδεσ που θα συµµετέχουν στο πρÞγραµµα τισ απαραίτητεσ γνώσεισ, διασυνδέσεισ και καθοδήγηση, έτσι ώστε να είναι σε θέση να παρουσιάσουν τισ ιδέεσ τουσ σε επενδυτέσ. Είναι ένα εντατικÞ πρÞγραµµα τεσσάρων µηνών, σχεδιασµένο απÞ µια οµάδα που αποτελείται απÞ επιχειρηµατίεσ, ακαδηµαϊκούσ και επαγγελµατίεσ απÞ τον ιδιωτικÞ τοµέα για την ενίσχυση του επιχειρηµατικού οικοσυστήµατοσ στην Κύπρο. Ο ∆ρ. Αλέξανδροσ Χαραλαµπίδησ, ιδρυτήσ τησ Chrysalis LEAP και καθηγητήσ στο ΤεχνολογικÞ Πανεπιστήµιο Κύπρου ξεκαθάρισε Þτι «οι επιταχυντέσ ιδεών είναι ένα απαραίτητο βήµα µεταξύ διαγωνισµών επιχειρηµατικών πλάνων και εκκολαπτηρίων. Οµάδεσ αποτελούµενεσ απÞ τουλάχιστον δύο µέλη, µε ιδέεσ στον τοµέα τησ ΑειφÞρου Ανάπτυξησ θα µπορούν να συµµετάσχουν δωρεάν σε ένα πρÞγραµµα σχεδιασµένο να γεφυρώσει το χάσµα ανάµεσα σε µια λαµπρή ιδέα και µια επιχείρηση έτοιµη να επενδύσει κάποιοσ σε αυτή. Μετά το πέρασ τησ διορίασ υποβολήσ αιτήσεων, οι οµάδεσ που θα επιλεγούν θα ενταχθούν στο πρÞγραµµα το οποίο θα αρχίσει τον Σεπτέµβριο του 2013 µε δύο Σαββατοκύριακα εντατικών εξειδικευµένων εργαστηρίων και το οποίο θα ολοκληρωθεί µε µια τελική παρουσίαση σε µια επιτροπή εµπειρογνωµÞνων του τοµέα οι οποίοι θα επιλέξουν τισ πέντε οµάδεσ που θα προχωρήσουν στο επÞµενο στάδιο. Κατά τη διάρκεια του Οκτωβρίου και του Νοεµβρίου, οι πέντε αυτέσ οµάδεσ θα ανατεθούν σε µέντορεσ οι οποίοι θα συνεχίσουν να τισ βοηθούν να βελτιώσουν τισ ιδέεσ και τα πρωτÞτυπα τουσ. Τον ∆εκέµβριο 2013 θα διοργανωθεί µια τελική εκδήλωση στην οποία οι οµάδεσ θα παρουσιάσουν τα τελικά επιχειρηµατικά τουσ πλάνα σε µια οµάδα επενδυτών τÞσο απÞ την Κύπρο Þσο και απÞ το εξωτερικÞ. Στο παρÞν στάδιο, η Chrysalis LEAP χρηµατοδοτείται εξ΄ολοκλήρου µε πÞρουσ των ιδρυτών τησ. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ και για να υποβάλετε αίτηση, επισκεφθείτε την ιστοσελίδα µασ στο www.chrysalisleap.com


ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 IOYΛΙΟΥ, 2013

6 | EI∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

∆È Ó· ÂÚÈ̤ÓÂÈ Î·Ó›˜ ·fi Ù˘ ∆Ú¿Â˙· ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com Το µείζον θέµα τÞσο των ηµερών αλλά και γενικά των τελευταίων τεσσάρων µηνών είναι τι θα γίνει µε την τράπεζα Κύπρου. Ειδικά µετά την κάθοδο τησ τρÞικασ στην χώρα τα σενάρια και η παραφιλολογία για το µέλλον τησ τράπεζασ Κύπρου έχει φουντώσει. Θα λέγαµε πωσ τα πιθανά σενάρια για το τι µέλη γενέσθαι στην µεγαλύτερη τράπεζα του νησιού είναι τρία. Το καλÞ, το κακÞ και το βασικÞ. Το καλÞ σενάριο είναι η τράπεζα να καταλήξει σε ένα κούρεµα κάτω του 50% µε την ταυτÞχρονη αποδέσµευση του ποσοστού που δεν θα κουρευτεί µέσω ενÞσ χρονοδιαγράµµατοσ που δεν διαρκέσει πέραν του τέλουσ του έτουσ. Την ίδια ώρα οι περιορισµοί στην κίνηση κεφαλαίων στην τράπεζα θα αίρονται σταδιακά µέσω ενÞσ χρονοδιαγράµµατοσ και πάλι βάση του οποίου περί τα τέλη του έτουσ οι περισσÞτεροι και βασικÞτεροι περιορισµοί θα έχουν τερµατιστεί. Το περίφηµο ELA τησ λαϊκήσ θα µετατραπεί σε µακροχρÞνιο κρατικÞ χρέοσ µέσω τησ έκδοσησ ενÞσ µακροχρÞνιου κρατικού οµολÞγου το οποίο δεν θα επηρεάζει το κρατικÞ µασ χρέοσ αφού θα έχει ορίζοντα 20ετίασ µε τÞκο συνδεδεµένο µε τον ρυθµÞ ανάπτυξησ τησ χώρασ. Κάτι σαν τα οµÞλογα που είχε εκδώσει η Αργεντινή Þταν πτώχευσε το 2001. Η ανακεφαλαιοποίηση τησ τράπεζασ θα γίνει βέβαια απÞ τουσ καταθέτεσ οι οποίοι στην πλειοψηφία τουσ δεσµεύονται πωσ Þχι µÞνο δεν θα προβούν σε ανάληψη των κεφαλαίων τουσ αλλά θα προχωρήσουν και σε επαναπατρισµÞ σηµαντικών κεφαλαίων αφού σαν µετÞχοιιδιοκτήτεσ τησ νέασ τράπεζασ θα κάνουν τον παν για να την σώσουν. Οι συντεχνίεσ βάζουν νερÞ στο κρασί τουσ και σε συνεργασία µε κυβέρνηση, τρÞικα και τράπεζα αποδέχονται

τουσ Þρουσ αφυπηρέτησησ προχωρώντασ σε µαζική έξοδο πέραν του 70% των υπαλλήλων. Την ίδια ώρα η τρÞικα σε συνεργασία µε το κράτοσ κατορθώνει να εκποίηση σε ξένο Fund ένα µεγάλο ποσοστÞ του χαρτοφυλακίου τησ τράπεζασ ξεφορτώνοντασ έτσι ένα πολύ µεγάλο ποσοστÞ των κακών δανείων. Τέλοσ δίνονται φορολογικά και άλλα κίνητρα σε ξένουσ και ειδικÞτερα σε κύπριουσ του εξωτερικού για επαναπατρισµÞ κεφαλαίων, µέτρα τα οποία αποφέρουν άµεσα καρπούσ πολύ πέραν του αναµενοµένου. Στο κακÞ σενάριο η οποιαδήποτε διαπραγµάτευση µεταξύ τράπεζασ, τρÞικασ και κυβέρνησησ οδηγείται σε πλήρη αποτυχία. Η τράπεζα προ του φάσµατοσ πτώχευσησ αναγκάζεται να ακολουθήσει την πορεία τησ Λαϊκήσ. Σπάει σε καλή και κακή µε το καλÞ κοµµάτι να πωλείται σε ξένο Fund. Η συγχώνευση Λαϊκήσ – Κύπρου ακυρώνεται και η Λαϊκή βασικά οδηγείται σε πτώχευση και εκκαθάριση µε Þλεσ τισ τραγικέσ συνέπειεσ µια τέτοιασ εξέλιξησ. Η τράπεζα Κύπρου προχωρά σε κούρεµα 90%, Þλοι οι υπάλληλοι και των δύο τραπεζών απολύονται µε τα ταµεία προνοίασ να κουρεύονται 90% και Þλα τα υποκατα-

στήµατα βάζουν λουκέτο. Ο ELA τησ Λαϊκήσ µετατρέπεται σε κρατικÞ χρέοσ µε το πακέτο στήριξησ να ανεβαίνει στα 13 δισ για να καλύψει τον ELA τησ Λαϊκήσ. Κανένα ποσÞν δεν δίνεται σε Συνεργατικά και Ελληνική τράπεζα για αν κεφαλαιοποίηση οι οποίοι αναγκάζονται να προβούν σε bail-in για να ανακεφαλαιοποιήθούν. Έρχεται νέο πολύ πιο σκληρÞ µνηµÞνιο και η χώρα µπαίνει σε έντονη πολιτική αβεβαιÞτητα αφού θα είναι πολλέσ οι αντιδράσεισ στη βουλή για ψήφιση του νέου µνηµονίου επήρεια των νέων αναγκών ελέω του ELA τησ Λαϊκήσ. Στο βασικÞ σενάριο η τράπεζα Κύπρου προχωρά µε άµεσο κούρεµα κοντά στα 50% µε το υπÞλοιπο Þµωσ να παραµένει δεσµευµένο µέχρι να ξεκαθαρίσουν Þλεσ οι ανάγκεσ τησ τράπεζασ. ΣκÞπελοσ παραµένει τÞσο το ποσοστÞ των κακών δανείων αλλά κυρίωσ ο ELA τησ Λαϊκήσ. Επίσησ τα περιοριστικά µέτρα παραµένουν και η άρση τουσ µεταφέρεται σε βάθοσ χρÞνου. Η τράπεζα µπαίνει σε µια διαδικασία εξÞδου απÞ την εξυγίανση η οποία Þµωσ παραµένει άγνωστη σκορπώντασ την αβεβαιÞτητα σε Þλο το τραπεζικÞ µασ σύστηµα. Οι αλληλοκατηγορίεσ οικονοµικών και πολιτικών αξιωµατούχων για το κατάντηµα τησ τράπεζασ συνεχίζουν καθηµερινά πλήττοντασ ακÞµα περισσÞτερο το είδη καταρρακωµένο τραπεζικÞ µασ σύστηµα. Βασικά Þλα παραµένουν ωσ έχουν µε την τρÞικα ναι µεν να µασ δίνει την επÞµενη δÞση του Σεπτεµβρίου αλλά να µασ κρατά εµάσ στην πρίζα και το τραπεζικÞ µασ σύστηµα στην αβεβαιÞτητα µέχρι την επÞµενη δÞση του ∆εκεµβρίου Þπου Þλοι θα αναµένουν πωσ θα ξεκαθαρίσει το µέλλον τησ τράπεζασ. Τώρα πιο απÞ τα τρία σενάρια θα υλοποιηθεί κανείσ δεν µπορεί να το προβλέψει µε σιγουριά αφού το τοπίο είναι πιο ρευστÞ και αβέβαιο απÞ ποτέ. Πιο λίγο πιθανÞν βέβαια φαντάζει το καλÞ σενάριο αφού έχουµε αργήσει είδη πάρα πολύ και έχει χαθεί πολύ πολύτιµοσ χρÞνοσ και η αξιοπιστία του τραπεζικού µασ συστήµατοσ έχει πληγεί ανεπανÞρθωτα. Μια αξιοπιστία που είναι σε πολύ χειρÞτερη θέση απÞ Þτι ήταν τον περασµένο Μάρτιο Þταν και έγινε το κούρεµα.

¶Ï·ÊfiÓ ÛÙȘ ÚÔÌ‹ıÂȘ ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎÒÓ Î·ÚÙÒÓ Ανώτατο Þριο στισ διατραπεζικέσ προµήθειεσ που επιβάλλονται στισ συναλλαγέσ που γίνονται µε “πλαστικÞ χρήµα” αποφάσισε να επιβάλει η ΚοµισιÞν. Η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή δεν αποδέχεται κατάργηση Þλων των προµηθειών, αλλά επιδιώκει έναν περιορισµÞ του κÞστουσ που βαρύνει τουσ καταναλωτέσ µέσω ενÞσ εξορθολογισµού των ποσοστών, τα οποία ποικίλουν απÞ χώρα σε χώρα. Για παράδειγµα, στισ χρεωστικέσ κάρτεσ οι προµήθειεσ

κυµαίνονται απÞ 0,1% στην ∆ανία µέχρι και 1,6% στην Πολωνία. Στισ πιστωτικέσ ο µέσοσ Þροσ στην Γερµανία κυµαίνεται στο 1,8% ενώ στην Γαλλία περιορίζεται στο 0,5%. Σύµφωνα µε το προσχέδιο των προτάσεών τησ ΚοµισιÞν, το πλαφÞν ορίζεται στο 0,2% για τισ χρεωστικέσ και στο 0,3% για τισ πιστωτικέσ κάρτεσ. Το πλαφÞν, θα επιβληθεί σε δύο φάσεισ. Αρχικά θα εφαρµοστεί στισ διακρατικέσ συναλλαγέσ. Για παράδειγµα,

για τουσ Kύπριουσ που κάνουν αγορέσ µε “πλαστικÞ χρήµα” σε άλλεσ χώρεσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ. Μέτα απÞ δύο χρÞνια, το πλαφÞν θα επεκταθεί και στισ εγχώριεσ πληρωµέσ Þλων των πιστωτικών καρτών. Σύµφωνα µε τισ εκτιµήσεισ τησ ΚοµισιÞν, οι συνολικέσ προµήθειεσ για τισ χρεωστικέσ κάρτεσ θα µειωθούν απÞ περίπου 4,8 δισ ευρώ στα 2,5 δισ ευρώ. Για τισ πιστωτικέσ κάρτεσ, οι συνολικέσ προµήθειεσ θα µειωθούν απÞ 5,7 δισ ευρώ στα 3,5 δισ ευρώ.

ÕÓÔ‰Ô˜ ÙÔ˘ ¢ÚÒ ¤Ó·ÓÙÈ ÙÔ˘ ‰ÔÏ·Ú›Ô˘ ∞Ó‰Ú¤·˜ ∆ÛÔÏ¿Î˘ Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd, Treasury Division Ενισχυµένο παρουσιάζεται το ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα έναντι του αµερικανικού δολαρίου στισ αρχέσ τησ τρέχουσασ εβδοµάδασ καθώσ έτυχε διαπραγµάτευσησ µέχρι τα 1,3218 σε σχέση µε 1,3109 που βρισκÞταν στο κλείσιµο των αγορών την περασµένη Πέµπτη. Βελτιωµένο παρουσιάζεται το κλίµα στισ διεθνείσ αγορέσ απÞ τον απÞηχο τησ σύσκεψησ των Υπουργών Οικονοµικών και των ∆ιοικητών των Κεντρικών Τραπεζών του Οµίλου G20. Οι εν λÞγω αξιωµατούχοι δεσµεύτηκαν Þτι θα θέσουν προτεραιÞτητα στην ανάκαµψη τησ οικονοµίασ

πριν την υιοθέτηση µέτρων δηµοσιονοµικήσ προσαρµογήσ. Επανέλαβαν τη δέσµευσή τουσ για τον καθορισµÞ των συναλλαγµατικών ισοτιµιών απÞ τισ αγορέσ µε ευέλικτο τρÞπο, στισ οποίεσ θα αντικατοπτρίζονται τα θεµελιώδη οικονοµικά δεδοµένα. Αναγνωρίζεται επίσησ η στήριξη τησ ανάκαµψησ τησ οικονοµίασ η οποία προέρχεται απÞ την υιοθέτηση µέτρων επεκτατικήσ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ. Στη σύσκεψη συζητήθηκαν εκτενώσ οι επιπτώσεισ απÞ την ενδεχÞµενη µείωση του προγράµµατοσ αγορά τίτλων τησ Fed, κυρίωσ για τισ αναδυÞµενεσ αγορέσ. Ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών τησ Γερµανίασ τÞνισε τη σηµασία τησ συµφωνίασ στη σύσκεψη του G20 για ενίσχυση τησ ανάπτυξησ τησ οικονοµίασ και τη λήψη µέτρων για τη δηµιουργία νέων θέσεων εργασίασ. Τέλοσ, ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ τησ Γερµανίασ δήλωσε Þτι δεν είναι κατάλληλη περίοδοσ για να αποσυρθεί η τρέχουσα επεκτα-

τική νοµισµατική πολιτική στην Ευρώπη. Σε µια άλλη εξέλιξη, ο πρÞεδροσ τησ Οµοσπονδιακήσ Τράπεζασ των ΗΠΑ κατά την πρÞσφατη σύσκεψη τησ Fed, επανέλαβε Þτι το επιτÞκιο αναφοράσ τησ Fed δεν θα αυξηθεί πριν το ποσοστÞ ανεργίασ υποχωρήσει στο 6,5%. Επίσησ επισήµανε Þτι η τράπεζα θα πρέπει να διαπιστώσει ενίσχυση τησ αναπτυξιακήσ δυναµικήσ πριν αποφασισθεί µείωση του ύψουσ του προγράµµατοσ αγοράσ τίτλων. Ανέφερε επίσησ Þτι τα µέλη τησ Fed έχουν αποκλίνουσεσ εκτιµήσεισ αναφορικά µε την εξέλιξη του προγράµµατοσ αγοράσ τίτλων. Τα δυσµενέστερα των αναµενÞµενων στοιχεία για την αγορά κατοικιών που ανακοινώθηκαν χθεσ στισ ΗΠΑ περιÞρισαν τισ προσδοκίεσ για την έκταση τησ µείωσησ του ύψουσ του προγράµµατοσ αγοράσ τίτλων τησ Fed.

∏ «The Sun» ÌÂÙÔÓÔÌ¿ÛÙËΠ۠«The Son» ¶ÚÔ˜ ÙÈÌ‹ ÙÔ˘ ‚·ÛÈÏÈÎÔ‡ ̈ÚÔ‡ Με µια πρωτοτυπία επέλεξε να τιµήσει τον ερχοµÞ του βασιλικού µωρού, η ευρείασ κυκλοφορίασ βρετανική σκανδαλοθηρική εφηµερίδα του Λονδίνου, “The Sun”. Αλλαξε την επωνυµία τησ σε “The Son” προσ τιµήν του νεογέννητου παιδιού, του πρίγκιπα Ουίλιαµ και τησ δούκισσασ του Κέιµπριτζ, Κέιτ.Το σύνολο του βρετανικού τύπου ασχολήθηκε χθεσ µε ειδικέσ εκδÞσεισ, µε το χαρµÞσυνο γεγονÞσ τησ γέννησησ του τρίτου στη σειρά διαδοχήσ του βρετανικού θρÞνου. Η Daily Telegraph, η Daily Star και Daily Express κυκλοφÞρησαν µε τον τίτλο “Είναι αγÞρι” και µε φωτογραφία τησ νέασ µητέρασ. Οι Times του Λονδίνου έγραψαν Þτι το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο και η Κοινοπολιτεία “θα νιώθουν “υπερηφάνεια και χαρά” για τη γέννηση, ενώ πολλέσ εφηµερίδεσ προσέφεραν “συµβουλέσ” στο µελλο-

ντικÞ διάδοχο. “Η µοναρχία µασ είναι Þ,τι έχουµε κοινÞ και αυτÞ που µασ διαφοροποιεί απÞ άλλεσ λιγÞτερο τυχερέσ χώρεσ σε παραδÞσεισ και λιγÞτερο άνετεσ µε την ιστορία τουσ. Η αγάπη µασ για τη µοναρχία δεν είναι άνευ Þρων, αλλά αν ανταµείβεται µε υπερηφάνεια, καθήκον και µια πινελιά χιούµορ, είναι σχεδÞν απεριÞριστη”, έγραψαν οι λονδρέζικοι Times. Σε διαφορετικÞ ύφοσ η κεντροαριστερή εφηµερίδα The Guardian προειδοποίησε στο κύριο άρθρο τησ: “Συγχαρητήρια και τισ καλύτερεσ µασ ευχέσ για το νέο µωρÞ είναι ένα θαυµάσιο πράγµα. Αλλά το µωρÞ του Κέιµπριτζ δεν θα κληρονοµήσει το θρÞνο πριν απÞ τουλάχιστον 50 χρÞνια. ΑκÞµη και αν η βασιλεία του πατέρα του και του παππού του, είναι υποδειγµατικέσ, ακÞµη και αν η συµπεριφορά του, αποδειχθεί άψογη, το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο το 2065 θα έχει στην κεφαλή του κράτουσ ένα άτοµο του οποίου η πορεία αποφασίστηκε απÞ τη γέννηση του;”


24 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2013

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

financialmirror.com | ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7

¶ÚÔ˜ ÙËÓ ¤ÍÔ‰Ô 20.000 ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎÔ› ˘¿ÏÏËÏÔÈ Είκοσι χιλιάδεσ λιγÞτεροι θα είναι οι τραπεζοϋπάλληλοι στην Ελλάδα στο τέλοσ του 2016, απÞ 54.500 (στο τέλοσ του 2012) καθώσ το 1/3 των εργαζοµένων στισ τράπεζεσ, θα οδηγηθεί στην έξοδο, ενώ θα κλείσει και το 40% των καταστηµάτων, δηλαδή ο αριθµÞσ τουσ θα περιοριστεί στα 2.100 (απÞ 3.500 στο τέλοσ του 2012). Τα προγράµµατα εθελουσίασ εξÞδου, τα κίνητρα πρÞωρησ συνταξιοδÞτησησ, αλλά και η µη ανανέωση συµβάσεων ενοικίασησ εργαζοµένων, είναι το τρίπτυχο πάνω στο οποίο θα κινηθούν οι τράπεζεσ τησ χώρασ για να περιορίσουν τισ θέσεισ εργασίασ. Μέχρι το τέλοσ του 2016 θα µπει µεγάλο µαχαίρι στα λειτουργικά κÞστη. Και δεν πρέπει να ξεχνάµε Þτι το σχεδÞν το 70% του κÞστουσ λειτουργίασ των τραπεζών είναι αµοιβέσ προσωπικού. Οι τράπεζεσ πρÞκειται µέχρι το τέλοσ Ιουλίου να καταθέσουν τα νέα τουσ επιχειρη-

σιακά σχέδια στην Τράπεζα τησ Ελλάδοσ. Στα πλάνα αυτά υπάρχει η πρÞβλεψη για το «µαχαίρι» στον αριθµÞ των εργαζοµένων. Η Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ ξεκαθάρισε την περασµένη Παρασκευή τη θέση τησ. Ανακοίνωσε ένα ελκυστικÞ πρÞγραµµα εθελούσιασ εξÞδου, που προσφέρει bonus µέχρι 170.000 ευρώ (µικτά) πλέον τησ νÞµιµησ αποζηµίωσησ. Η Εθνική Τράπεζα ανακοίνωσε τον περασµένο Φεβρουάριο πρÞγραµµα εθελούσιασ εξÞδου, το οποίο Þµωσ δεν περπάτησε, καθώσ ακÞµα δεν έχει εγκριθεί απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή Ανταγωνισµού. Στο πρÞγραµµα θα µπορούσαν να ενταχθούν περίπου 2.000 άτοµα. Το οικονοµικÞ κίνητρο για πρÞωρη αποχώρηση φτάνει τισ 200.000 ευρώ (µικτά). Η Alpha Bank δεν πρÞκειται µέσα στο έτοσ να ανακοινώσει πρÞγραµµα εθελούσιασ εξÞδου. Θα πρέπει Þµωσ να σηµειώσουµε Þτι

οι εργαζοµένου που φεύγουν για να συνταξιοδοτηθούν, εισπράττουν µεγάλο εφάπαξ, που ξεπερνά τισ 200.000 ευρώ (πρÞκειται για παροχή τησ εταιρείασ, καθώσ οι εργαζÞµενοι δεν υπÞκεινται σε κρατήσεισ). Η Εµπορική πριν περάσει στην Alpha ολοκλήρωσε πρÞγραµµα εθελούσιασ εξÞδου. Το επÞµενο βήµα είναι η µη ανανέωση των συµβάσεων 400 ενοικιαζÞµενων εργαζοµένων τησ (συνολικά απασχολεί 1.100 ενοικιαζÞµενουσ). Στο πρÞγραµµα εθελούσιασ του ΤΤ συµµετείχαν 650 εργαζÞµενοι οι οποίοι θα αποχωρήσουν στο τέλοσ του µήνα. Πληροφορίεσ αναφέρουν Þτι και η Eurobank,

µέχρι το τέλοσ του χρÞνου θα ανακοινώσει κάποιο πρÞγραµµα εθελούσιασ. Μέσω των προγραµµάτων εθελούσιασ εξÞδου και κινήτρων για πρÞωρη συνταξιοδÞτηση θα αποχωρήσουν περίπου 17.000 άτοµα µέχρι το τέλοσ του 2016. Ο κλάδοσ απασχολεί περίπου 3.000 ενοικιαζÞµενουσ εργαζÞµενουσ, των οποίων οι συµβάσεισ δεν θα ανανεωθούν. ΟπÞτε φτάνουµε τισ 20.000 άτοµα. Επίσησ εκτιµάται Þτι τουλάχιστον 4.000 τραπεζοϋπάλληλοι θα συνταξιοδοτηθούν µέχρι το τέλοσ του 2015, οι οποίοι µπορεί να «βοηθηθούν» να εγκαταλείψουν νωρίτερα αν τουσ δοθούν ικανά κίνητρα.

EKT: ∫¤Ú‰Ë €9 ‰È˜ ·fi ÙȘ ·ÁÔÚ¤˜ ÂÏÏËÓÈÎÒÓ ÔÌÔÏfiÁˆÓ Η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα (ΕΚΤ) αναµένεται να έχει κέρδη 70 έωσ 80 δισ ευρώ απÞ τισ αγορέσ κρατικών οµολÞγων των χωρών τησ περιφέρειασ τησ Ευρωζώνησ κατά την περίοδο µεταξύ 2009 και 2012, απÞ τα οποία τα 9 δισ ευρώ θα προέλθουν απÞ τα ελληνικά οµÞλογα, τονίζει ο επικεφαλήσ τησ µεγάλησ γερµανικήσ επενδυτικήσ εταιρείασ Allianz Global Investors, Αντρέασ Ούτερµαν. Ο κ. Ούτερµαν σηµειώνει Þτι Þλα τα κρατικά καθώσ και εταιρικά οµÞλογα που αγÞρασε η ΕΚΤ στο πλαίσιο των παρεµβάσεων τησ (securities market program) διακρατούνται τυπικά έωσ τη λήξη τουσ και Þτι η κύρια πηγή των κερδών τησ θα είναι οι τÞκοι (coupons) που θα εισπράττει, µε την υπÞθεση Þτι δεν θα υπάρξει κάποια χρεοκοπία. «Αν υπάρξει η

∏ ΢Úȷ΋ Fine Life Group Ó¤Ô˜ ̤ÙÔ¯Ô˜ Ù˘ Forthnet Μία εταιρεία παροχήσ νοµικών και χρηµατοοικονοµικών υπηρεσιών µε έδρα την Κύπρο, ονÞµατι Fine Life Group, είναι ο νέοσ µέτοχοσ τησ Forthnet, Þπωσ δηµοσίευσε η εφηµερίδα Ηµερισία. Σύµφωνα το δηµοσίευµα οι Ολλανδοί τησ Cyrte Investments και τησ Delta Llloyd πούλησαν το ποσοστÞ τουσ που ανερχÞταν στο 25,73% τελικώσ και αποχωρούν απÞ την εταιρεία µε αγοραστή την κυπριακή Zesmero Limited, η οποία, µε τη σειρά τησ καταλήγει -µέσα απÞ µία αλυσίδα εταιρείανα ανήκει στην Fine Life Group (www.finelifegroup.com). Το ενδιαφέρον είναι πωσ το ποσοστÞ που εµφανίζεται να κατέχει η Fine Life ανέρχεται στο 27,04%, κάτι που σηµαίνει Þτι η εταιρεία απέκτησε και άλλεσ µετοχέσ τησ Forthnet την περασµένη περίοδο. Η Fine Life Group ανήκει στον Φώτο Πιττάτζη, ενώ οι υπάρχουσεσ πληροφορίεσ αναφέρουν Þτι υπάρχει εµπλοκή στην υπÞθεση και του Σωκράτη Κοµινάκη. Παράλληλα, νέα σενάρια κάνουν λÞγο για ενδιαφέρον του επενδυτικού fund Third Point για τη Forthnet, κάτι που µέχρι στιγµήσ δεν έχει γίνει δυνατÞ να επιβεβαιωθεί. Αναλυτέσ τησ αγοράσ υποστηρίζουν Þτι θα ήταν ιδιÞµορφη επιλογή αν αποφάσιζε το Third Point να αποκτήσει τη Forthnet ή έστω να γίνει µεγαλοµέτοχοσ τησ αποκτώντασ το ποσοστÞ τησ αραβικήσ Emirates International Telecommunication (EIT).

ανάγκη περαιτέρω οικονοµικήσ βοήθειασ στην Ελλάδα, µε τη συµµετοχή του δηµÞσιου τοµέα για πρώτη φορά, τÞτε τουλάχιστον µέροσ του κÞστουσ πρέπει να καταβληθεί απÞ τα κέρδη που είχε η ΕΚΤ απÞ προηγούµενα προγράµµατα», τονίζει ο κ. Ούτερµαν και προσθέτει Þτι «αν αυτÞ γινÞταν καλύτερα κατανοητÞ, τÞτε ίσωσ θα περιοριζÞταν η λαϊκή αντίθεση στα προγράµµατα διάσωσησ». Ο κ. Ούτερµαν σηµειώνει Þτι και άλλεσ κεντρικέσ τράπεζεσ που έκαναν παρεµβάσεισ στη διάρκεια τησ κρίσησ αποκÞµισαν κέρδη. Αναφέρει Þτι η οµοσπονδιακή κεντρική τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ (Fed) αγÞρασε την άνοιξη του 2008 στοιχεία του ενεργητικού τησ τράπεζασ Bear Sterns, ύψουσ σχεδÞν 30 δισ δολαρίων, απÞ την οποία αποκÞµισε καθαρά κέρδη 6,6

δισ δολαρίων. Κέρδη ύψουσ 17,7 δισ δολαρίων απέφεραν στα ταµεία του αµερικανικού υπουργείου Οικονοµικών και τα δάνεια και οι αγορέσ ενεργητικού τησ µεγάλησ ασφαλιστικήσ και χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ εταιρείασ AIG (American International Group). To ΕιδικÞ Πλαίσιο ΡευστÞτητασ τησ Τράπεζασ τησ Αγγλίασ, µέσω του οποίου οι τράπεζεσ αντάλλασσαν στοιχεία του ενεργητικού τουσ µε έντοκα γραµµάτια του βρετανικού δηµοσίου, απέφερε κέρδη 2,3 δισ στερλινών έωσ τον Ιανουάριο του 2012, Þταν καταργήθηκε. Επίσησ, το Ταµείο Αγοράσ Στοιχείων Ενεργητικού τησ Τράπεζα τησ Αγγλίασ ( Asset Purchase Facility), το οποίο συστάθηκε τον Ιανουάριο του 2009, έχει αποφέρει έωσ σήµερα κέρδη άνω των 31 δισ στερλινών, τα οποία

διανέµονται σε τακτά χρονικά διαστήµατα στο βρετανικÞ υπουργείο Οικονοµικών. Ùσον αφορά τισ παρεµβάσεισ των κυβερνήσεων στη διάρκεια τησ κρίσησ για τη χορήγηση εγγυήσεων και την αγορά µετοχών σε επιχειρήσεισ, τα στοιχεία είναι ανάµεικτα, σηµειώνει ο κ. Ούτερµαν, αν και το κÞστοσ σε γενικέσ γραµµέσ αποδεικνύεται χαµηλÞτερο απ’ Þτι αναµενÞταν αρχικά. Για παράδειγµα, το αµερικανικÞ υπουργείο Οικονοµικών, κέρδισε 5 δισ δολάρια απÞ την αγορά µετοχών τησ AIG και επιπλέον 4,5 δισ δολάρια απÞ επενδύσεισ που έκανε στη Citigroup και τη Bank of America. ΩστÞσο, φαίνεται απίθανο να έχει κέρδοσ απÞ τισ επενδύσεισ που έκανε σε αυτοκινητοβιοµηχανίεσ.

∆Ô ∫·Ù¿Ú ¿Ú¯ÈÛ ӷ ÂÂÓ‰‡ÂÈ ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Στην υπογραφή συµφωνίασ την απÞκτηση ποσοστού 25% στην µονάδα ηλεκτροπαραγωγήσ µε καύσιµο φυσικÞ αέριο «ΗΡΩΝ ΙΙ» έναντι τιµήµατοσ ύψουσ 58 εκ. δολαρίων προχώρησε ο Þµιλοσ ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ µε την εταιρεία Qatar Petroleum International (QPI). Η στρατηγική συµµαχία των δύο

πλευρών αφορά την απÞ κοινού υλοποίηση επενδύσεων Þχι µÞνο στην Ελλάδα, αλλά και στην ευρύτερη περιοχή τησ ΝΑ Ευρώπησ. Σε πρώτη φάση, η συµφωνία προβλέπει την εξαγορά του 25% τησ “ΗΡΩΝ ΙΙ”. Η QPI ιδρύθηκε το 2006 και αποτελεί

θυγατρική του Οµίλου Qatar Petroleum, που είναι ο κρατικÞσ Ùµιλοσ πετρελαίου του Κατάρ. Η QPI δραστηριοποιείται ήδη στην Ευρώπη (Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, Ιταλία), τη ΒÞρειο Αµερική ( ΗΠΑ, Καναδάσ), την Ασία (Σιγκαπούρη, Βιετνάµ) και την Αφρική.

∏ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ÚˆÙ·ıÏ‹ÙÚÈ· ÛÙÔ ¯Ú¤Ô˜ Ì 160,5% ÙÔ˘ ∞∂¶ ∆υστυχώσ η Ελλάδα συνεχίζει να είναι πρωταθλήτρια στο δηµÞσιο χρέοσ. ΑυτÞ προκύπτει απÞ τα στοιχεία που δηµοσίευσε η Eurostat για το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2013. Συγκεκριµένα, το υψηλÞτερο δηµÞσιο χρέοσ ωσ ποσοστÞ του ΑΕΠ καταγράφηκε στην Ελλάδα (160,5%), ενώ ακολουθούν η Ιταλία (130,3%), η Πορτογαλία (127,2%) και η Ιρλανδία (125,1%). Τα χαµη-

λÞτερα

ποσοστά καταγράφηκαν στην Εσθονία (10,0%), τη Βουλγαρία (18,0%) και το Λουξεµβούργο (22,4%). Ùσον αφορά στην Ευρωζώνη, το χρέοσ ανήλθε στο τέλοσ του πρώτου τριµήνου στο 92,2% του ΑΕΠ, απÞ 90,6% που ήταν στο τέλοσ του τέταρτου τριµήνου του 2012, ενώ στην Ε.Ε. συνολικά το χρέοσ αυξήθηκε σε 85,9% απÞ 85,2%.

ΑπÞ τα στοιχεία τησ ευρωπαϊκήσ στατιστικήσ υπηρεσίασ προκύπτει πωσ οι µοναδικέσ χώρεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ στισ οποίεσ καταγράφηκε µείωση του δηµÞσιου χρέουσ στη διάρκεια του πρώτου τριµήνου ήταν η Γερµανία και η Εσθονία. Στη Γερµανία, το χρέοσ µειώθηκε στο 81,2% του ΑΕΠ απÞ 81,9% που ήταν το τελευταίο τρίµηνο του 2012, ενώ στην Εσθονία, η οποία υιοθέτησε το ευρώ µÞλισ το 2011, το χρέοσ µειώθηκε στο 10% απÞ 10,1% και είναι το χαµηλÞτερο στην Ευρώπη.

¶ˆÏËÙ‹ÚÈ· Û ÍÂÓԉԯ›· ‚¿˙Ô˘Ó ÔÈ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ Σε πωλήσεισ των στοιχείων ενεργητικού τουσ προχωράνε οι συστηµικέσ τράπεζεσ στην Ελλάδα, προκειµένου να ενδυναµώσουν την κεφαλαιακή τουσ βάση και να ενισχύσουν τουσ δείκτεσ βασικών ιδίων κεφαλαίων. Τα πολυτελή ξενοδοχεία, Þπωσ είναι ο Αστέρασ τησ Βουλιαγµένησ, που ανήκει στον Þµιλο τησ Εθνικήσ (και ήδη τρέχει η β? φάση του διαγωνισµού), το Χίλτον που ανή-

κει στον Þµιλο τησ Alpha, και το King George, που ανήκει στον Þµιλο τησ Eurobank, είναι ισχυρά assets. Οι διοικήσεισ βρίσκονται σε επαφέσ µε επενδυτέσ για την πώληση των ξενοδοχειακών µονάδων. Η Εθνική στο χαρτοφυλάκιο τησ διαθέτει 15 ξενοδοχειακέσ µονάδεσ (Þπωσ το Gerakina Beach στη Χαλκιδική), η Αlpha Bank στα προσ πώληση ακίνητα περιλαµβάνει 9 ξενοδοχειακέσ µονάδεσ, και η Εurobank τρία

ξενοδοχεία. Η Alpha Bank ανακοίνωσε Þτι στισ 18 Ιουλίου 2013 υπέγραψε µε τον ουκρανικÞ Þµιλο Delta Bank σύµβαση πώλησησ του συνÞλου των µετοχών τησ θυγατρικήσ τησ τράπεζασ JSC Astra Bank Ukraine. Η πώληση θα πραγµατοποιηθεί έναντι τιµήµατοσ 82 εκ ευρώ, ενώ η συναλλαγή θα είναι ουδέτερη κεφαλαιακά για την Alpha Bank.


ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 IOYΛΙΟΥ, 2013

8 | ΑΓΟΡΑ | financialmirror.com

√È ¯˘ÌÔ› §·Ó›ÙË Û Ӥ· Û˘Û΢·Û›· Για τον καθένα απÞ µασ η λέξη απÞλαυση έχει τη δική τησ ερµηνεία. Για κάποιον µπορεί να είναι οι αναµνήσεισ των Κυριακάτικων πρωινών µε την οικογένεια µαζεµένη ή ακÞµα και µια απÞλυτα δροσιστική βουτιά στισ πιο Þµορφεσ παραλίεσ του νησιού που σε γεµίζει ενέργεια και ζωντάνια. Σ’ αυτέσ τισ προσωπικέσ απολαύσεισ για τον καθένα υπάρχει κάτι που παραµένει πάντα σταθερή αξία για να κάνει την απÞλαυση ακÞµα πιο συναρπαστική: οι χυµοί Λανίτησ. Οι χυµοί Λανίτησ έρχονται τώρα σε νέα, ανανεωµένη συσκευασία κλείνοντασ µέσα τουσ Þλη την απÞλαυση και τη δροσιά των πιο εκλεκτών φρούτων για να συνοδεύουν κάθε στιγµή τησ ηµέρασ µασ. Στιγµέσ που µοιραζÞµαστε µε αυτούσ που αγαπάµε. Με αυτούσ που έχουν θέση στη ζωή µασ. Ùπωσ ακριβώσ και ο χυµÞσ. Μαζί τισ καλωσορίζουµε. Μαζί τισ απολαµβάνουµε. Μαζί τισ ζούµε. Καλωσορίζουµε τη ζωή σε κάθε τησ πτυχή µε τον πιο απολαυστικÞ τρÞπο: παρέα µε ένα ποτήρι χυµÞ Λανίτη.

∏ Marketway ÛÙËÚ›˙ÂÈ ÙËÓ Ô‰È΋ ·ÛÊ¿ÏÂÈ· Ένα ιδιαίτερα σηµαντικÞ έργο, µε θέµα την καλύτερη ενηµέρωση των ΥπηκÞων Τρίτων Χωρών σχετικά µε τουσ οδικούσ κανÞνεσ στην Κύπρο, υλοποιήθηκε στην Κύπρο, απÞ 1/1/2013 µέχρι 30/6/2013. Λαµβάνοντασ υπÞψη τα αυξανÞµενα µεταναστευτικά ρεύµατα τα οποία επηρεάζουν τÞσο την Κύπρο Þσο και τα υπÞλοιπα Κράτη Μέλη τησ ΕΕ, κρίνεται αναγκαία η οδική ασφάλεια. Επιδίωξη του έργου ήταν η ανάπτυξη ενÞσ ολοκληρωµένου πλαισίου δράσεων, που να εστιάζει στην αγωγή των µεταναστών ΥπηκÞων Τρίτων Χωρών για θέµατα οδικήσ συµπεριφοράσ και ασφάλειασ. Το έργο υλοποίησε η Εταιρεία Marketway ωσ τελικÞσ δικαιούχοσ έργου, το οποίο και τελούσε υπÞ τη διαχείριση του Κλάδου Ταµείων Αλληλεγγύησ του Υπουργείου Εσωτερικών και συγχρηµατοδοτήθηκε απÞ το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Ταµείο Ένταξησ ΥπηκÞων Τρίτων Χωρών.

Etihad: ∫¤Ú‰ÈÛÂ Î·È ¿ÏÈ Ù· ‚Ú·‚›· Skytrax Στην Etihad Airways, τον εθνικÞ αεροµεταφορέα των Ηνωµένων Αραβικών Εµιράτων, απονεµήθηκαν το βραβείο για την «Καλύτερη Πρώτη Θέση» για τέταρτη συνεχÞµενη χρονιά, καθώσ και τα βραβεία για την «Καλύτερη Θέση Πρώτησ Θέσησ» και «Καλύτερο Catering Πρώτησ Θέσησ», στα φετινά Skytrax World Airline Awards, που ανακοινώθηκαν στο πλαίσιο του Paris Air Show. Η ψηφοφορία για τα βραβεία Skytrax World Airline Awards γίνεται απÞ επιβάτεσ απÞ περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 160 χώρεσ. Η Etihad Airways είναι ο εθνικÞσ αεροµεταφορέασ των Ηνωµένων Αραβικών Εµιράτων µε βάση την πρωτεύουσα Abu Dhabi. Η Etihad πραγµατοποιεί πτήσεισ σε περισσÞτερουσ απÞ 90 προορισµούσ. Για τισ πτήσεισ απÞ και προσ Κύπρο, η Etihad Airways χρησιµοποιεί αεροσκάφη τύπου Airbus A320. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ επισκεφθείτε την ιστοσελίδα www.etihad.com

√È ˆÏ‹ÛÂȘ ÙÔ˘ Prius ÍÂ¤Ú·Û·Ó Ù· 3 ÂηÙÔÌ̇ÚÈ· Η Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) ανακοίνωσε Þτι στο τέλοσ Ιουνίου οι συνολικέσ πωλήσεισ του εµβληµατικού υβριδικού Prius βενζίνησ-ηλεκτρισµού ξεπέρασαν τα 3 εκατοµµύρια. Το 1997, η TMC λάνσαρε το Prius, το πρώτο υβριδικÞ επιβατικÞ Þχηµα µαζικήσ παραγωγήσ. Η δεύτερη γενιά ακολούθησε το 2003 και η τρίτη γενιά το 2009. ΑπÞ την πρώτη µέχρι τη τρίτη γενιά η TMC µείωσε δραστικά το κÞστοσ του υβριδικού συστήµατοσ κατά 2/3 και µείωσε τισ εκποµπέσ CO2 απÞ τα 114 γρ/χλµ στα 89 γρ/χλµ (µετρήσιµα σύµφωνα µε τα ευρωπαϊκά πρÞτυπα για Συνδυασµένο Κύκλο Οδήγησησ). ΕπιπρÞσθετα, η TMC υπέβαλε αίτηση για 1,261 πατέντεσ σε σχέση µε την τρίτη γενιά Prius, σηµειώνοντασ πρÞοδο αντάξια του ονÞµατοσ Prius (που προέρχεται απÞ τη λατινική λέξη που σηµαίνει «πρÞτεροσ»). Η TMC θα συνεχίσει να επενδύει στην Έρευνα και Ανάπτυξη και σε εγκαταστάσεισ στην Ιαπωνία για την εξέλιξη υβριδικών και άλλων εξελιγµένων τεχνολογιών και να πετυχαίνει βιώσιµη ανάπτυξη εφαρµÞζοντασ αυτέσ τισ τεχνολογίεσ που έχουν αναπτυχθεί στην Ιαπωνία, σε Þλο τον κÞσµο.

T· Ó¤· ÎÚ·ÛÈ¿ ∫Ù‹Ì· °·›· ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ ΑπÞ τισ ποικιλίεσ µοσχοφίλερο, ροδίτη και αγιωργίτικο προέρχονται τα τρία νέα κρασιά τησ σειράσ Monograph τησ ελληνικήσ Γαία Οινοποιητική. Με σήµανση προστατευÞµενησ γεωγραφικήσ ένδειξησ (ΠΓΕ) ΠελοπÞννησοσ, η σειρά Monograph προσφέρει στον καταναλωτή µια εξαιρετική σχέση ποιÞτητασ-τιµήσ, φρουτώδη αρώµατα, κοµψÞτητα και γευστική αισθητική απÞ τρεισ γηγενείσ ποικιλίεσ σταφυλιού. Τα κρασιά του Κτήµατοσ Γαία αντιπροσωπεύονται και διανέµονται στην Κύπρο απÞ την εταιρεία Senaga Trading Ltd.

FXTM: ªÂ ÙÔ Boomerang Bonus ÂÈ‚Ú·‚‡ÂÈ ÙÔ˘˜ ÂÏ¿Ù˜ Ù˘ Αναγνωρίζοντασ Þτι µια επιτυχηµένη εταιρεία δεν ορίζεται µÞνο απÞ την ικανÞτητα τησ να προσελκύει νέουσ πελάτεσ αλλά και την ικανÞτητά τησ να διατηρεί πελάτεσ µακροχρÞνια, η ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) ξεκίνησε νέο πρÞγραµµα επιβράβευσησ για υφιστάµενουσ πελάτεσ µε το Þνοµα “Boomerang Bonus”. Με τη λογική του θρυλικού µπούµερανγκ που πάντα επιστρέφει «σπίτι», το “Boomerang Bonus”, που µπορεί να έχει αξία έωσ και 6000 ευρώ ή δολάρια, καλεί επενδυτέσ που έχουν ήδη κάνει κατάθεση στη ForexTime να επιστρέψουν και να ανταµειφθούν για επιπρÞσθετεσ καταθέσεισ που θα κάνουν πριν τισ 31 Ιουλίου 2013. ΠερισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ για το Boomerang Bonus και τισ προϋποθέσεισ του θα βρείτε στοhttp://www.forextime.com. H FXTM παρέχει πρÞσβαση στην παγκÞσµια αγορά νοµισµάτων και προσφέρει τη δυνατÞτητα για συναλλαγέσ σε ξένο συνάλλαγµα (forex), πολύτιµα µέταλλα, CFDs µετοχών, CFDs διαπραγµατεύσιµων αµοιβαίων κεφαλαίων (ETF) και CFDs σε συµβÞλαια µελλοντικήσ εκπλήρωσησ εµπορευµάτων.

∏ ∆Ú. ¶ÂÈÚ·ÈÒ˜ ÛÙËÚ›˙ÂÈ ÙÔ˘˜ Ó¤Ô˘˜ ·ıÏËÙ¤˜ Η Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ (Κύπρου) Λτδ στα πλαίσια τησ πολύπλευρησ προσφοράσ τησ προσ τουσ νέουσ και τον αθλητισµÞ συνεχίζει να στηρίζει τον Ùµιλο ΣκουÞσ Λευκωσίασ. Κατά τη φετινή χρονιά, η Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ ήταν ο κύριοσ χορηγÞσ του Squash League 2012-2013, καθώσ και του Summer Squash Tournament 2013. Πρωταθλητήσ του φετινού League ανακηρύχτηκε ο Ανθούλησ Σολοµωνίδησ µε 70 βαθµούσ, ενώ στη δεύτερη θέση κατατάχθηκε ο Ανδρέασ Τσουρήσ µε 68 βαθµούσ. Νικητήσ του Summer Tournament ανακηρύχθηκε ο Μιχάλησ Λύρασ, ενώ στη δεύτερη θέση κατατάχθηκε ο Λουκάσ Χριστοδουλίδησ. Η Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ (Κύπρου) Λτδ συνεχίζει να στηρίζει τισ δράσεισ του Οµίλου ΣκουÞσ, διÞτι είναι ένασ ευγενήσ θεσµÞσ, µέσω του οποίου ενθαρρύνονται οι νέοι να ασχοληθούν µε τον αθλητισµÞ.


July 24 - 30, 2013

financialmirror.com | NEWS | 17

Euro zone unemployment set to rise further l

End to recession is within sight, Irish economy to outperform southern European peers

The queues of jobless people across Spain, Portugal and Greece will lengthen further but an end to recession is within sight, according to the latest Reuters poll on some of the euro zone’s most vulnerable economies. A poll of more than 40 economists, conducted over the last week, followed a meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers on Saturday, who pledged to put growth before austerity to revive the global economy. More than anywhere else in the world, the southern European economies of the euro zone have borne the brunt of austerity, which has brought a far higher economic and human cost than many of its proponents envisaged in 2010. Economists expect the jobless rate in Spain and Greece will remain above the 27% mark, even going into 2015, according to the poll. The euro zone unemployment rate hit 12.2% in May, leaving more than 19.3 mln people out of work - equivalent to the combined populations of Austria and

Belgium. “The endless fiscal austerity simply hasn’t worked and unemployment particularly youth unemployment - remains a serious problem for the euro zone,” said Alan McQuaid, economist at Merrion Stockbrokers in Dublin. “In the absence of pro-growth measures the jobless rates in ‘peripheral’ countries will remain elevated for some time.” A separate Reuters poll last week named youth unemployment the top threat to the future of the euro zone economy, alongside its sickly banking system. At least the latest survey showed Portugal and Spain should manage a return to feeble growth next year, while Greece might escape a six-year depression in 2014, even if outright growth looks a long way off. Overall, the economic outlook was little changed from the last poll in April. Ireland, often grouped with the southern European countries because of its banking collapse and big budget deficit, has achieved modest economic growth for most of the last two years, although it fell back into recession at the start of this year.

Economists expect its economy will pick up in 2014, rising 1.9%, and unemployment there to come down gradually - bucking the trend of the other three countries in the poll.

PINNING HOPES ON EXPORTS Exports are currently the only growth engine for Spain’s economy, dragged down by dire domestic consumption and the hobbled property markets, which makes recovery dependent on how the international economy performs in the next few quarters. But it is mainly the United States that is driving the world economy forward at the moment. “We’re in for another couple of difficult years,” said Nicolas Lopez, M&G Valores in Madrid. “(Spain) won’t be seeing strong growth any time soon, considering the imbalances which the country has created and must fix, so, at the moment, I can’t see substantial

growth in Spain until 2016 at the earliest.” Greece, ground zero for the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis, looks certain to spend its sixth straight year in an economic depression, shrinking around 4.5% this year. “The overall picture remains mixed. The restoration of balance in the twin deficits - the current account and budget gaps - which reflected the Greek economy’s (disease) for years, is a positive sign,” said Angelos Tsakanikas, economist at Greece’s IOBE economic research institution. However, the country also faces big political problems. Its government has a wafer-thin majority, while civil unrest is rife, particularly after a bill last week to lay off 25,000 public sector worker in eight months. Portugal too has been in the midst of a political crisis that threatens to derail the country’s adjustment efforts and exit from a 78 bln euro EU/IMF bailout by mid-2014 as planned. Investor fears were eased at the weekend when the president said he was not calling a snap election, but problems remain.

Fund could recycle German savings to euro strugglers ANALYSIS What if German savers were to help rescue Greece, Portugal or Spain by investing in their state assets and companies rather than bailing them out with taxpayer-backed loans? That novel idea for recycling Berlin’s huge current account surplus, avoiding fire sale privatisations in the weakest euro zone states and boosting growth in southern Europe comes from French economist Olivier Garnier. The group chief economist of Societe Generale bank argues that creating an agency in charge of purchasing, restructuring and privatising state-owned assets could solve several of Europe’s deep economic problems over time. The “European Treuhand (Trust) Agency” would offer a “debt-for-equity conversion” that could repair the public finances of the euro zone’s bailed-out states, reduce North-South current account imbalances in the 17-nation currency area and generate investment in Europe’s periphery. Garnier argues that the idea offers German savers a better financial return than parking surplus cash in domestic bank deposits earning zero nominal interest, and is politically more palatable for Germans than risky taxpayer loans to governments that may never be able to repay the debt, or be fully recouped. The fact that such long-shot proposals are doing the rounds four years into the bloc’s debt crisis highlights how few of the underlying problems that caused it have been resolved. This idea may be timely as Chancellor Angela Merkel tries to soften Berlin’s image as Europe’s stern austerity enforcer and show a gentler side with initiatives to help fight youth unemployment in crisis-stricken euro zone countries. But to bitter Greeks or Spaniards it might look more like an exercise in German colonisation than a helping hand. While Dutch, Austria or Finnish savers might join, the “European” agency would inevitably be dominated by German money. Quoting Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s comment that “we want to show

that we are not just the world’s best savers”, Garnier says: “He should have added that the Germans have to show they can be wiser investors, making a more efficient use of their savings and of their related taxpayers’ guarantees.”

PRECEDENT His idea has a German precedent. After the fall of the Berlin Wall and German unification in 1990, a trustee agency known as the “Treuhandanstalt” was set up to restructure, wind up or sell off East German state enterprises, as well as owning farmland, public housing and former army property. Some top talents of West German business were recruited or volunteered to help shake out and spin off eastern companies. But the example points to some of the political obstacles to Garnier’s proposal. The Treuhandanstalt was bitterly criticised for mass layoffs of nearly 2.5 mln workers out of the 4 mln it inherited, and for shuttering businesses that critics said were profitable. It contributed to lingering East-West resentment over the social and financial costs of German unification, and its first president was killed by (west German) Marxist assassins. Privatising state-owned companies and property are a key part of the bailout programmes prescribed by the EU and the IMF for the euro zone’s debt-laden governments. Yet Greece’s consistent failure to meet its privatisation revenue targets highlight just how hard it is to attract serious investors to countries mired in deep recession, and to sell even profitable businesses for a fair price. Athens’ attempt to sell natural gas company DEPA collapsed in June, blowing a 1 bln euro hole in its bailout plan, and raising further doubts about plans to hawk the state gambling monopoly and the loss-making railways. Elsewhere in the region, so-called vulture funds of private equity investors are looking to pick up stakes in blue-chip Spanish companies at knock-down prices after bailed-out banks were forced to divest. Under Garnier’s model, a long-term investment vehicle funded by both private

sector and German government savings, or with a state guarantee, would buy up the assets, taking them off their governments’ books, then restructure and run them until they can be sold off profitably. He calls this “enhancing cross-border capital ownership of banks and corporates”, but many Greeks are likely to see it as a hostile German grab for their national treasures, while Germans may view it as a risky way to place their money. When the top-selling German daily Bild ran a headline at the start of the debt crisis in 2010 screaming “Sell your islands, you bankrupt Greeks! - and the Acropolis too”, it caused fury, rekindling resentments smouldering since World War Two.

SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND? German economists Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer suggested last year that Germany should create a sovereign wealth fund to invest excess savings mostly outside Europe in a portfolio of assets, as Norway, Singapore or Saudi Arabia do. Such a fund would be a safer and more efficient way to place German savings than in unremunerated deposits at the European Central Bank, they argued. It would also have the side benefit of lowering the euro’s exchange rate, which would benefit struggling

south European economies. Garnier would put that money to work inside the euro zone. He notes that Germany’s KfW state-owned development bank is already dipping a toe in these waters by providing loans, though not equity capital, through its Spanish counterpart to credit-starved small and medium-sized businesses. His proposal raises three other issues: would the agency be able to run the assets more efficiently than current owners?; how would the risk to German savers’ capital be mitigated?; and how could the assets be valued at prices acceptable to all? His answer to each question is that the status quo is worse: the assets are mouldering while governments desperately need the money; Germans face risks from the bailedout countries as taxpayers so why not get some return on their savings; and the assets could be priced in a way that allowed for some upside for south European states if they fetch more on the market. “I see all the hurdles, but it would be illadvised to rely only on fiscal transfers to share risks among euro zone economies,” Garnier said in an interview. “A European fiscal union raises even bigger obstacles than this - abandoning budget sovereignty - and writing off official debt would be fraught with legal and political obstacles.”


July 24 - 30, 2013

18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

The Detroit Syndrome By Sanjeev

Sanyal

DEUTSCHE BANK’S GLOBAL STRATEGIST

When the city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy last week, it became the largest such filing in United States history. Detroit’s population has dropped from 1.8 million in 1950, when it was America’s fifth-largest city, to less than 700,000 today. Its industrial base lies shattered. And yet we live in a world where cities have never had it so good. More than half of the world’s population is urban, for the first time in history, and urban hubs generate an estimated 80% of global GDP. These proportions will rise even higher as emergingmarket countries urbanize rapidly. So, what can the world learn from Detroit’s plight? As recently as the 1990’s, many experts were suggesting that technology would make cities irrelevant. It was believed that the Internet and mobile communications, then infant technologies, would make it unnecessary for people to live in crowded and expensive urban hubs. Instead, cities like New York and London have experienced sharp increases in population since 1990, after decades of decline. One factor that has helped cities is the nature of twenty-first century life. Previously, life in developed countries was based on daily routines: people went to work in offices and factories, returned home to eat dinner with their families, watched their

favorite television programs, went to sleep, and repeated the cycle when they awoke. Such regular cycles no longer apply to most peoples’ lives. In the course of a work day, people mix and match many activities – they may work at a desk, but they may also meet a friend for lunch, go to the gym, do chores, travel on business, shop online, and so on. Similarly, time at home is no longer clearly demarcated, with people working online or participating in conference calls even as they manage their family life. We have discovered that this multi-tasking life is best done in cities, which concentrate a multiplicity of hard amenities – airports, shops, schools, parks, and sports facilities – as well as soft amenities like clubs, bars, and restaurants. Another factor is that cities have increased in importance as hubs for innovation and creativity. Until the nineteenth century, innovation was carried out mostly by generalists and tinkerers, which meant that the accumulation of new knowledge was slow, but that its diffusion across different fields was rapid. In the twentieth century, knowledge creation became the job of specialists, which accelerated knowledge creation but retarded inter-disciplinary application. But recent studies have shown that this source of innovation is rapidly decelerating (the productivity of an American research worker may now be less than 15% of a similar researcher in 1950). Instead, innovation is increasingly based on mixing and matching knowledge from different specializations. Certain cities are ideally suited for this,

because they concentrate different kinds of human capital and encourage random interactions between people with different knowledge and skills. The problem with this post-industrial urban model is that it strongly favors generalist cities that can cluster different kinds of soft and hard amenities and human capital. Indeed, the growth dynamic can be so strong for some successful cities that they can hollow out smaller rivals (for example, London vis-àvis the cities of northern England). Some specialist cities could also do well in this world. But, as Detroit, with its long dependence on the automotive industry, demonstrates, cities that are dependent on a single industry or on a temporary location advantage may fare extremely poorly. All of this has important implications for emerging economies. As it transformed itself into the “factory of the world,” the share of China’s urban population jumped from 26.4% in 1990 to around 53% today. The big, cosmopolitan cities of Beijing and Shanghai have grown dramatically, but the bulk of the urban migration has been to cookie-cutter small and medium-size industrial towns that have mushroomed over the last decade. By clustering industrial infrastructure and using the hukou system of city-specific residency permits, the authorities have been able to control the process surprisingly well. This process of urban growth, however, is about to unravel. As China shifts its economic model away from heavy infrastructure investment and bulk manufacturing, many of

these small industrial cities will lose their core industry. This will happen at a time when the country’s skewed demographics causes the workforce to shrink and the flow of migration from rural areas to cities to slow (the rural population now disproportionately comprises the elderly). Meanwhile, the post-industrial attractions of cities like Shanghai and Beijing will attract the more talented and better-educated children of today’s industrial workers. Unlike rural migrants heading for industrial jobs, it will be much more difficult to guide educated and creative professionals using the hukou system. The boom in the successful cities, therefore, will hollow out human capital from less attractive industrial hubs, which will then fall into a vicious cycle of decay and falling productivity. Stories like Detroit’s have played out several times in developed countries during the last half-century. And, as the fate of Mexico’s northern towns suggests, emerging economies are not immune from this process. That is why China needs to prepare for this moment. Rather than building ever more cookie-cutter industrial towns, China needs to refit and upgrade its existing cities. As its population begins to shrink, it may even be worthwhile to shut down unviable cities and consolidate. Detroit’s fate should serve as a warning, not only for China, but for the next generation of urbanizing countries (for example, India) as well. © Project Syndicate, 2013. www.project-syndicate.org

Dollar eases off in quite trade The dollar was nursing broad losses in Asia on Tuesday as soft U.S. housing data offered an excuse to sell, while a sharp fall in Portuguese bond yields provided a boost to the euro. Dealers said liquidity had dried up amid the northern summer and activity had been characterized by a general trimming in short positions of everything from the Australian dollar to the yen and gold. As a result, the dollar was testing chart support at 99.56 yen and a break there would see a move to the next bulwark at the July low of 99.28. The euro was up at $1.3186, after touching a one-month high of $1.3218, while the dollar index fell 0.5% to 82.220. The single currency won a reprieve from political worries after Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva said the current government will stay in office to keep an

international bailout on track. That saw a sharp narrowing in Portuguese bond spreads over bunds. The dollar was not helped by a surprising 1.2% fall in U.S. existing home

tested by Australian inflation data due on Wednesday where a low result will only fuel speculation of an August rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

FOREX COMMENTARY & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS sales in June, though they were still up over 15% on the same month last year. While the Federal Reserve is still expected to start tapering its asset buying before year end, a recent run of mixed data has lessened the urgency for a shift and pulled Treasury yields off their highs. That was one reason the Australian dollar had managed to recoup a little ground to reach $0.9251, though it faces stiff resistance in the $0.9292 to $0.9306 area. It will also be

There is little in the way of major economic data due in Asia on Tuesday with the next big release being the HSBC flash PMI for China out on Wednesday. The dollar has largely held its ground against the lower yielding G10 currencies in July and BNP Paribas analysts anticipate US data should improve in Q3 as fiscal headwinds abate,

supporting expectations for Fed tapering. This is likely to contrast with renewed deterioration in European numbers and rising expectations for further ECB and BOE easing. All said, the burden of proof for the USD to reassert itself remains on the data. Given this, the muted news flow may mean that this is postponed until next week’s payroll employment report. The US data calendar is quiet this week, with durable goods orders for June on Thursday the main release of note. European data have given little cause for optimism of late when it comes to the EUR. This week’s key sentiment indicators, which will include Thursday’s IFO index, are expected to reflect weakness in economic www.eurivex.com activity.

Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.


July 24 - 30, 2013

financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19

Short-term Japan, long-term China Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research The weekend news from Asia featured two big items. On Friday night, China’s central bank announced the abolition of all controls on bank lending rates. On Sunday, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s coalition won a majority in the upper house of Parliament big enough for Abe to push through major economic reforms, (but too small for him to re-militarize the country). Both of East Asia’s biggest economies seem primed for major structural reforms under new governments that took power within the last nine months. Where will reforms gain greater momentum? The economies and challenges differ greatly, but it’s worth considering China and Japan together because each country’s economic leaders act with one eye on the other country. In Japan, elites have been shaken out of their torpor by the realization that while they were napping, China was eating their lunch, dinner and tomorrow’s breakfast. For Japan to retain control of its economic destiny, and remain geopolitically relevant, it must reignite growth. This sense of existential urgency means that Abe has a unique opportunity to remake the rules of the game. It also means that those betting on Japanese sclerosis to prevail will almost certainly be proved wrong, at least for the next two or three years. Spurred by a

visceral fear of eclipse by China, Abe and BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda will drive the yen down and inflation expectations and asset prices up. Over in Beijing, the unspoken fear is that China could end up like Japan: a low-growth, high-debt economy with plenty of pensioners and relatively few workers. Over the next two decades the ratio of prime working age Chinese to those over 60 will fall from its present 5:1 to 2:1—the same trajectory Japan followed between 1970 and 2005. Meanwhile, economic growth since 2009 has been fuelled disproportionately by a credit binge that left local governments and their state enterprises with a lot of debt they cannot repay. The risk of Japan-style rot is substantial. As with Japan, the prophets of doom will almost certainly be disappointed in the next couple of years. The risk of a financial system blow-up is wildly exaggerated by foreign commentators, because Chinese banks have little exposure to foreign creditors or to volatile domestic wholesale funding markets that could trigger such a crisis. Growth will probably slow to 6% or so in 2014-2015. But this is because the government seems to be doing at least some of the right things: resisting the urge to stimulate, restraining credit growth, and making gradual changes in interest rates, fiscal policy and competition rules. After freeing lending rates, Beijing must liberalize deposit rates. This will take time, but plans for gradual relaxation of

controls, plus a deposit insurance scheme, seem well advanced. Meanwhile, Monday saw reports that the authorities aim to shift the value-added tax from a production to a consumption basis. Paradoxically, this is good for consumption growth, because it will give localities a revenue incentive to promote consumer markets, rather than build the next aluminum smelter. One big advantage China has in the reform game is that it is still a relatively poor economy with lots of catch-up growth potential left. This means it can execute tough reforms gradually, and pay off the losers with dividends from growth. Japan is a low-growth rich country, and losers from reform must mainly be compensated by fiscal transfers, which could mean an increase in government debt. A second, subtler advantage is that in China, macro policy can directly push structural reform. Interest-rate liberalization, if executed properly, will shift resources to private firms from state firms, and income to households (away from corporations and government). These shifts will boost average firm productivity because private companies catering to consumer demand will win out, and state enterprises reliant on investment demand will lose. In Japan, by contrast, macro policy merely sets the table; all the tough reforms must be executed purely at the micro level. Changing entrenched corporate and labour market behaviour will be a daunting task.

The other emerging market story Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research Investors have had a harsh reminder of the risks presented by high growth developing economies with rudimentary financial systems. And yet for every manager who tells us that they will never again take the call of a Singapore or Sao Paolo-based equity broker, we cannot but feel that the current gloom is overdone. Indeed, we are seeing encouraging signs of reforms that could serve as the basis for the next phase of EM growth. That may seem premature given that emerging markets are being forced to tighten policy in the face of a continuing foreign capital exodus. The big worry is of vulnerable economies entering a growth-destroying circle of capital withdrawal that sparks further currency declines, heightened inflation worries, and so more tightening. On Monday, India’s central bank did just this by raising two key interest rates and limiting commercial banks’ access to repo funding. The fear is of a slow burn crisis that will eventually morph into something on the scale of the early 1980s debt crisis in Latin

America or its Asian counterpart in the late 1990s. While we retain a negative cyclical view on the EM grouping, we think such a doomsday scenario is highly unlikely, simply because most emerging markets are creditor nations that, for the most part, have manageable foreign debt. This was the chief lesson they leant from the Asian financial crisis after fixed exchange rate systems collapsed, crippling those in hock to foreigners. As we see it, a “containable” 2013 crisis could be just the ticket to push through painful fiscal reforms which were never going to happen when financing conditions were easy. Just yesterday India made further moves to liberalize foreign direct investment, and across Asia, investor pressure to constrain deficit spending is spurring an overhaul of subsidy programs which are the region’s equivalent of Western welfare entitlements. Despite facing substantial street protests, Indonesia is pushing ahead with an average 33% fuel price hike thanks to the rolling back of a costly subsidy program. The government in Jakarta faces particular pressure due to its current account deficit and weak fiscal position. Even after the subsidy cut,

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gasoline prices will remain 30% below a market-based level. Yet it is hard to imagine such changes having being pushed through by a relatively weak second-term government in the absence of a high oil price and large scale capital withdrawal by international investors. Inflation will inevitably spike sharply in the coming months, but history suggests that markets are pretty efficient at looking through such one-off price adjustments. India garnered much positive coverage late last year when it substantially opened its protected retail sector to overseas giants, but arguably the more important reform has been incremental diesel price rises that have been phased in this year. These hikes are slated to continue until oil company losses are fully erased. Producer prices for natural gas were recently doubled and a gradual turnaround in India’s “twin deficits” is no longer inconceivable. This process of reform is, of course, a stop-start process. India is expanding a food subsidy program that will eventually cover an estimated 67% of the populace. Similarly, Thailand continues to struggle with the consequences of its absurd rice subsidy program which pays farmers up to 40% more

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

The Financial Markets Interest Rates Base Rates

LIBOR rates

CCY USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0-0,25% 0.50% 0.50% 0-0,1% 0-0,25%

1mth

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USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.19 0.49 0.08 0.12 0.00

0.23 0.50 0.11 0.14 0.01

0.26 0.51 0.15 0.16 0.02

0.40 0.59 0.25 0.23 0.08

0.68 0.87 0.45 0.42 0.25

USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.49 0.72 0.55 0.26 0.17

0.76 0.89 0.69 0.29 0.30

1.12 1.13 0.88 0.36 0.48

1.50 1.38 1.09 0.44 0.66

2.11 1.86 1.44 0.65 1.01

2.69 2.40 1.87 0.96 1.40

Exchange Rates

CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

Opening Rates

100 1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF JPY 1.3196 0.7578

1.5371

1.0689

1.0052

1.1648

0.8101

0.7618

0.6506

0.8585

0.9355

1.2345

1.4380

99.48

131.27

152.91

0.6954

0.6540 0.9404

106.34

Weekly movement of USD

CCY\Date

25.06

02.07

09.07

16.07

23.07

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Today

USD GBP JPY CHF

1.3061

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0.8552

127.16

129.43

129.27

129.62

130.49

1.2171

1.2282

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1.2318

1.2274

GBP EUR JPY CHF

1.5371 1.3196 99.48 0.9355

Last Week %Change 1.5113 1.3084 99.76 0.9470

WORLD CURRENCIES PER US DOLLAR CURRENCY

CODE

RATE

EUROPEAN Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia

BYR GBP BGN CZK DKK EEK EUR GEL HUF LVL LTL MTL MDL NOK PLN RON RUB SEK CHF UAH

8840 1.5371 1.4814 19.6354 5.6502 11.8522 1.32 1.649 222.89 0.5319 2.6155 0.3252 12.65 5.9182 3.1927 3.3486 32.3165 6.4637 0.9352 8.135

AUD CAD HKD INR JPY KRW NZD SGD

0.9261 1.0323 7.7578 59.655 99.47 1116.98 1.2498 1.2636

BHD EGP IRR ILS JOD KWD LBP OMR QAR SAR ZAR AED

0.3770 7.0012 24589.90 3.5650 0.7080 0.2847 1509.00 0.3850 3.6411 3.7503 9.8063 3.6728

AZN KZT TRY

0.7833 153.18 1.9125

AMERICAS & PACIFIC Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Swap Rates

CCY/Period

Major Cross Rates

than the average market price. Despite, a $4.5 billion loss on the scheme, the government seems unwilling to deal with farmer wrath in its electoral heartland. In summary, the drivers of emerging market development remain positive demographics, technology transfer and access to capital. But these are necessary rather than sufficient conditions for growth. The right economic policy mix remains crucial and if the current “crisis” forces governments into a more rational use of resources, then it is quite possible that a new growth cycle starts in earnest within 18 months.

-1.71 -0.86 -0.28 -1.21

Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham ASIA Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira Note:

* USD per National Currency


July 24 - 30, 2013

20 WORLD MARKETS financialmirror.com

HF trader fined $6 mln in U.K., U.S. Regulators in Britain and the United States fined trading firm Panther and owner Michael Coscia nearly $6 mln for manipulating commodities markets, marking one of the first crack-downs on abuses in automated trading. Regulators are taking a tougher line on high-frequency (HFT) and other forms of automated trading blamed for exacerbating a so-called “flash crash” on Wall Street in May 2010, when blue chips went briefly into freefall. High frequency traders use software known as algorithms to dart in and out of markets faster than the blink of an eye. This is usually legal but Panther Energy Trading and Coscia were using the software to post and then cancel orders to profit from the false impression of activity in the market they had created, the regulators said. Coscia said he had no comment. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Coscia placed and quickly cancelled thousands of bids and offers in futures contracts over three months, a method of trading known as layering or spoofing. The watchdog fined Panther and Coscia $1.4 mln and forced them to pay back $1.4 mln in illegal profits on trades made between August 8, 2011 and October 18 of that year. The U.S. watchdog was using new powers under the DoddFrank reform of Wall Street. Panther and Coscia were also banned from trading on any CFTC-registered trading platform for year. “We will use the Dodd Frank anti-disruptive practices provision against schemes like this one to protect market participants and promote market integrity, particularly in the growing world of electronic trading platforms,” CFTC enforcement

director David Meister said. The CME Group Inc also fined Panther $600,000 and ordered the company and Coscia to pay back $1.3 mln in illegal profits. The CME Group said Panther’s systems placed 400,000 large orders in 17 markets between August and October 2011 with 98% of the orders cancelled. This included oil, natural gas, corn, soybeans, soybean oil and wheat. Several Panther employees executed transactions using six identification numbers registered to Panther owner and member, Michael Coscia, the CME said. Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) fined Coscia

nearly $1 mln for manipulating commodities markets in Britain, the new watchdog’s first penalty on a HFT trader. The FCA said Coscia used algorithmic software in 2011 to place thousands of false orders for Brent crude, Gas Oil and West Texas Intermediate futures from the United States on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in Britain. He pocketed $279,920 over a six-week period of trading at the expense of other market participants, mainly other HFT traders. Coscia is not a member of ICE or authorised by the FCA to trade in Britain, but was able to trade from the United States through a broker that offered direct access to the UK exchange. The FCA said the penalty reflected the serious nature of the deliberate market abuse and the significant impact on ICE, as well as depriving Coscia of the illegal profit he made. HFT volumes have come to represent a large chunk of trading on some exchanges and regulators have already moved to inject more transparency into the sector and toughen up rules on direct market access. “Mr Coscia was cheating the market and other participants,” said Tracey McDermott, the FCA’s head of enforcement. Coscia received a 30% discount on the fine by agreeing settlement under the FCA’s executive settlement procedures. The UK’s Financial Services Authority, which the FCA replaced in April, fined Swift Trade 8 mln pounds ($12.30 mln) in August 2011 for similar trading abuses but this is being appealed.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s subprime borrowers In recent years, a growing number of African governments have issued Eurobonds, diversifying away from traditional sources of finance such as concessional debt and foreign direct investment. Taking the lead in October 2007, when it issued a $750 mln Eurobond with an 8.5% coupon rate, Ghana earned the distinction of being the first Sub-Saharan country – other than South Africa – to issue bonds in 30 years.This debut Sub-Saharan issue, which was four times oversubscribed, sparked a sovereign borrowing spree in the region. Nine other countries – Gabon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Zambia, and Tanzania – followed suit. By February 2013, these ten African economies had collectively raised $8.1 bln from their maiden sovereign-bond issues, with an average maturity of 11.2 years and an average coupon rate of 6.2%. These countries’ existing foreign debt, by contrast, carried an average interest rate of 1.6% with an average maturity of 28.7 years. It is no secret that sovereign bonds carry significantly higher borrowing costs than concessional debt does. So why are an increasing number of developing countries resorting to sovereign-bond issues? And why have lenders suddenly found these countries desirable? With quantitative easing having driven interest rates to record lows, one explanation is that this is just another, more obscure manifestation of investors’ search for yield. Moreover, recent analyses, carried out in conjunction with the establishment of the new BRICS bank, have demonstrated the woeful inadequacy of official assistance and concessional lending for meeting Africa’s infrastructure needs, let alone for achieving the levels of sustained growth needed to reduce poverty significantly. Moreover, the conditionality and close monitoring typically associated with the multilateral institutions make them less attractive sources of financing. What politician wouldn’t prefer money that gives him more freedom to do what he likes? It will be years before any problems become manifest – and, then, some future politician will have to resolve them. To the extent that this new lending is based on Africa’s strengthening economic fundamentals, the recent spate of sovereign-bond issues is a welcome sign. But here, as elsewhere, the record of private-sector credit assessments should leave one wary. So, are shortsighted financial markets, working with shortsighted governments, laying the groundwork for the world’s next

debt crisis? The risks will undoubtedly grow if sub-national authorities and private-sector entities gain similar access to the international capital markets, which could result in excessive borrowing. Nigerian commercial banks have already issued international bonds; in Zambia, the power utility, railway operator, and road builder are planning to issue as much as $4.5 billion in international bonds. Evidence of either irrational exuberance or market expectations of a bailout is already mounting. How else can one explain Zambia’s ability to lock in a rate that was lower than the yield on a Spanish bond issue, even though Spain’s credit rating is four grades higher? Indeed, except for Namibia, all of these Sub-Saharan sovereign-bond issuers have “speculative” credit ratings, putting their issues in the “junk bond” category and signaling significant default risk.

By Joseph Stiglitz and Hamid Rashid

Signs of default stress are already showing. In March 2009 – less than two years after the issue – Congolese bonds were trading for 20 cents on the dollar, pushing the yield to a record high. In January 2011, Côte d’Ivoire became the first country to default on its sovereign debt since Jamaica in January 2010. In June 2012, Gabon delayed the coupon payment on its $1 bln bond, pending the outcome of a legal dispute, and was on the verge of a default. Should oil and copper prices collapse, Angola, Gabon, Congo, and Zambia may encounter difficulties in servicing their sovereign bonds. To ensure that their sovereign-bond issues do not turn into a financial disaster, these countries should put in place a sound, forward-looking, and comprehensive debt-management structure. They need not only to invest the proceeds in the right type

of high-return projects, but also to ensure that they do not have to borrow further to service their debt. These countries can perhaps learn from the bitter experience of Detroit, which issued $1.4 bln worth of municipal bonds in 2005 to ward off an impending financial crisis. Since then, the city has continued to borrow, mostly to service its outstanding bonds. In the process, four Wall Street banks that enabled Detroit to issue a total of $3.7 bln in bonds since 2005 have reaped $474 mln in underwriting fees, insurance premiums, and swaps. Understanding the risks of excessive private-sector borrowing, the inadequacy of private lenders’ credit assessments, and the conflicts of interest that are endemic in banks, Sub-Saharan countries should impose constraints on such borrowing, especially when there are significant exchange-rate and maturity mismatches. Countries contemplating joining the bandwagon of sovereign-bond issuers would do well to learn the lessons of the alltoo-frequent debt crises of the past three decades. Matters may become even worse in the future, because so-called “vulture” funds have learned how to take full advantage of countries in distress. Recent court rulings in the United States have given the vultures the upper hand, and may make debt restructuring even more difficult, while enthusiasm for bailouts is clearly waning. The international community may rightly believe that both borrowers and lenders have been forewarned. There are no easy, risk-free paths to development and prosperity. But borrowing money from international financial markets is a strategy with enormous downside risks, and only limited upside potential – except for the banks, which take their fees up front. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economies, one hopes, will not have to repeat the costly lessons that other developing countries have learned over the past three decades. Joseph E. Stiglitz is a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University. Hamid Rashid is a senior economic adviser at the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. © Project Syndicate, 2013. www.project-syndicate.org


July 24 - 30, 2013

financialmirror.com WORLD MARKETS

21

The Hungarian banker who knows what’s on PM’s mind OTP chief persuaded Orban to dilute previous raid on banks; Sold a big chunk of his shares which investors see as sign of new pain on banks Sandor Csanyi, chief executive of Hungary’s OTP bank, is one of a select group of people who know what Prime Minister Viktor Orban is thinking, which is why markets flinched last week when the banker dumped 36 mln euros’ worth of his firm’s shares. The two men have shared bottles of wine together in private meetings, they have sat together in VIP boxes watching Orban’s favourite soccer team, and, when Orban wanted to impose a swingeing tax on banks three years ago, Csanyi persuaded him to water it down, according to people who know them. Csanyi last week sold off a large chunk of his shares in OTP Bank, where he has been chief executive for 21 years, shortly after Orban’s government announced plans for a new policy that could cost the banks vast sums of money. The message picked up on the Budapest stock market was that if someone with the prime minister’s ear was dumping shares, the outlook must be very bad indeed, possibly even worse than anyone anticipated. Shares in OTP have fallen 12.5% since Thursday, while banks

further afield are potentially exposed, too. Austria’s Raiffeisen, Germany’s Bayerische Landesbank and Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo are among the big foreign banks with units in Hungary. “A leading banker who holds a stake in his bank rarely goes to the streets to protest,” Tamas Koranyi, editor-in-chief

of Hungary’s leading business daily Napi Gazdasag, wrote on Monday. “He can resign, or, if he can’t - perhaps out of loyalty to the other stockholders - he sells. A market economy can hardly need a stronger signal.”

INNER CIRCLE

Csanyi himself has been silent on his reasons for selling. His company said he wanted to use the capital to re-invest in agricultural businesses he also owns. The sale emerged 48 hours after Orban’s government announced it would make banks change the terms of the contracts under which many Hungarians have taken out foreign currency mortgages that have become more onerous due to currency fluctuations. The government has not disclosed details of the plan. It is likely to help borrowers - an important constituency when Orban seeks re-election next year - at the expense of the banks. Csanyi’s access to Orban is particularly noteworthy because the Hungarian prime minister’s inner circle is so tiny. Csanyi used his influence to powerful effect in 2010 when Orban wanted to impose a “crisis tax” on banks that was so high that people in the sector believed it would drive them under. The OTP chief had daily contact with Orban while the plan was being considered, according to someone familiar with the exchanges, who spoke on condition of anonymity. In the final version, the tax was still high, but it had been watered down, sources involved in the discussions said. Csanyi persuaded Orban, who rarely changes his mind, to lower it and spread it across all financial firms, not just banks. “(Orban is) very single-minded,” said a diplomat. “He wouldn’t let anybody’s opinion get in the way.”

OCTOPUS

This year, signs emerged of tension between Csanyi and Orban’s administration. Orban’s chief of staff, Janos Lazar, gave two interviews in which he said Csanyi had excessive influence, and likened him to

an octopus whose tentacles spread over all aspects of life. “In a democracy, that amount of economic power poses a serious risk,” Lazar told the news website 444.hu last month. If there was already a rift, Csanyi’s decision to sell off his shares last week has probably widened it. Over the weekend, the online edition of Magyar Nemzet, a paper close to Orban’s Fidesz party, reported that the OTP chief was considering resigning due to ill health, and that this was why he sold off some stock. This was contradicted by OTP’s chief press officer, Bence Gaspar, who said Csanyi was in good health, would not resign and had sold the shares to raise cash for his agribusinesses. Several people close to the OTP chief gave Reuters a detailed account on the state of Csanyi’s health. They said he underwent planned open heart surgery in February to fix a genetic defect in a part of the aorta and a heart valve. After a five-week recuperation he received a clean bill of health from his doctors, these people said, and was back at work. They said he has thought about resigning the CEO post and remaining chairman in the future, but not any time soon. The newspaper story may have been a ploy to undermine him, said several observers, though they did not offer any evidence that the government was in any way involved in the article. “It’s obvious that the government has aimed its guns at Mr. Csanyi,” a leading Hungarian banker said.

Wave of new regulation tops insurance risks

Insurance Banana Skins 2013 (2011 ranking in brackets)

‘Banana Skins’ poll pinpoints key concerns for insurers

The greatest risk currently facing the insurance industry comes from the wave of new regulations which are being introduced at international and local levels, according to a new survey which ranks insurance sector risk. The CSFI’s latest Insurance Banana Skins survey, conducted in association with PwC, says that new rules governing issues such as solvency and market conduct could swamp the industry with costs and compliance problems. It could also distract management from the more urgent task of running profitable businesses at a time when the industry is under stress. The survey polled over 600 insurance practitioners and industry observers in 54 countries to find out where they saw the greatest risks over the next 2-3 years. Regulatory risk emerged a clear leader in many major markets, including North America, Europe, and the Far East/Pacific. This is the second successive Banana Skins survey which has identified regulation as the top risk concern for insurers, underlining the continuing uncertainty surrounding major regulatory initiatives. The EU’s Solvency II Directive, now in its seventh year of planning, was the focus of strongest concern, particularly since many non-EU countries are awaiting the outcome before they finalise plans of their own. A related set of risks lay in the area of business practices (No. 4), another area of regulatory scru-

tiny. Despite the huge amount that has been done by companies and regulators to clean up practices such as mis-selling, this is still seen as an area of high risk particularly at a time of economic stress when pressure to generate sales is strong. Other high-ranking concerns revealed by the survey included the uncertain state of financial markets (No. 2) and the world economy (No. 3). These are adding to the pressures on an industry which has been squeezed by years of low interest rates and intense competition. A particular focus of concern was the legacy of products which offer guaranteed returns but cannot be profitably funded at today’s low yields (No. 6). The continuation of difficult market conditions has also put the spotlight on the quality of management (No. 8), and particularly risk management (No. 7). This year’s survey showed continuing concern about underwriting risks in natural catastrophes (No. 5) given the greater frequency of events, and the rising cost of claims. In some markets, such as New Zealand and Australia, the insurers’ handling of catastrophe claims has become a major political issue. On the other hand, a number of risks have fallen in urgency, notably concern about the availability of capital to sustain the industry (down from No. 2 to No. 16). The situation is now reversed: there is excess capital in the industry, particularly on the non-life and reinsurance sides, which is

keeping prices soft and hurting profitability. Another receding risk, at least in developed markets, is human resources: the shake-out in the financial services sector has made it easier to recruit and keep good talent. The situation is harder in emerging markets where qualified talent remains in short supply in many markets. “It is ironic that the industry’s greatest risks are seen to come from regulation, which is intended to reduce risk, at a time when operating and underwriting conditions are also very hard. It is no surprise that these pressures are reflected in rising concern about the ability of management to handle them,” explained survey editor David Lascelles. A breakdown of the insurance industry by sector shows the life side specifically concerned about the impact of low interest rates on investment performance, and the task of managing complex and competitive retail distribution networks. On the non-life side, the main concerns are with excess capacity and competitive pricing, along with the impact of surging catastrophe claims. Concerns in the reinsurance sector are mainly with the security of capacity in a highly competitive market. The survey is the latest in the CSFI’s longrunning Banana Skins series on financial risk and can be downloaded from www.csfi.org or from the PwC website: www.pwc.com .

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Regulation (1) Investment performance (4) Macro-economic environment (3) Business practices (18) Natural catastrophes (5) Guaranteed products (-) Quality of risk management (15) Quality of management (14) Long tail liabilities (7) Political interference (11) Distribution channels (9) Actuarial assumptions (12) Innovation (-) Reputation (16) Change management (-) Capital availability (2) Corporate governance (8) Climate change (20) Human resources (6) Product development (24) Social media (-) Crime (22) Complex instruments (19) Reinsurance (21) Back office (17) Pollution (25) Terrorism (23)


July 24 - 30, 2013

22 WORLD MARKETS financialmirror.com

HK-listed China shares post biggest rise in 7 months Railway, construction spike on reported govt investment China shares listed in Hong Kong posted their biggest rise in nearly seven months on Tuesday, buoyed by a series of signals that Chinese authorities were working to limit the extent of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Minutes before the Hong Kong close, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated Beijing’s commitment to economic reforms, adding credence to an earlier report that Premier Li Keqiang said growth would not be allowed to sink below 7%. Railway and construction material stocks jumped on an official media report Beijing might use high-speed railway projects to help reduce overcapacity in sectors such as cement and steel. “There’s just a lot of news flow on the day and it’s giving some people a better idea of what Beijing might do to cope with slowing growth,” said Linus Yip, a strategist with First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index climbed 2.3% to 21,915.4 points, its highest close in seven weeks. The China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong soared 3.9% to record its biggest daily gain since January 2. The CSI300 of leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings jumped 2.9%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2%, their biggest gains since July 11.

TURNOVER PICKS UP

Apart from the supportive comments from government officials, sentiment on the mainland was also bolstered by a Shanghai Securities News report suggesting new initial public listings may be further delayed if applicants have to refile corporate fi-

nancial filings. Hong Kong turnover jumped more than 70% to $8.6 bln from Monday’s $5 bln, which was the lowest so far this year, even as trading interest waned in the afternoon. Shanghai volume spiked more than 30% from Monday. Traders in Hong Kong said a sizeable purchase in a basket of Chinese mid-cap counters helped spur early gains and triggered a bout of short covering. Still, short interest in Hong Kong accounted for 10.2% of turnover, staying above 10% as it has for most of the last month and the historical average of 8%. China Railway Construction spiked 7.8% in Hong Kong and 7.2% in Shanghai. Short selling in its H-share listing had exceeded 10% of its turnover in the previous six sessions, peaking at 15.2% on Friday. Shares of Zoomlion Heavy Industries, one of China’s largest construction machinery makers, surged 9.2% in Hong Kong and a more modest 3.4% in Shenzhen. Anhui Conch Cement, China’s largest cement producer, rose almost 3% in both Hong Kong and Shanghai. The short squeeze also lifted the Chinese banking sector. In Hong Kong, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) each jumped by nearly 5%, while smaller lenders Citic Bank spiked 5.7% and China Minsheng Bank gained 2.2%. Shares in ZTE Corp , China’s second-largest telecommunication equipment maker, surged 19.5% in Hong Kong, their biggest jump in almost five years, and its Shenzhen listing jumped by the maximum 10% limit after it forecast a first-half profit and said it would issue share options to staff.

Britain better off inside EU The economic benefits of Britain’s European Union membership outweigh the loss of independence on policy, the government said in a review that will underpin Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan to renegotiate EU ties and hold a referendum. Cameron rattled many business leaders, EU members and wider trading partners in January when he promised to claw back powers from Brussels and hold a vote by 2017 on whether to stay inside the 28-nation bloc or leave. His flagship policy has raised the prospect of Britain leaving its main trading partner after 40 turbulent years marked by arguments about the nature of London’s relationship with its European neighbours. France and Germany have signalled they want to keep Britain in but will resist “cherrypicking” EU policies, while U.S. President Barack Obama suggested Britain should try to fix its relationship rather than walk away. Before the start of renegotiation, Cameron ordered a review of how the EU affects British life across 32 areas, from health and education to the economy, tax and immigration. The first six reports were published on Monday, looking at areas including the single market, taxation and foreign policy. Access to a market of 500 m����������������������������������� l���������������������������������� n people means Britain’s gross domestic product is “appreciably greater” than it would otherwise have been, the review found. However, it noted the opposition to EU regulation and “constraints on policy-making”. The ��������� document offered no figure for the gain in economic output due to the single market but it cited six other studies, five of which said membership was worth up to 6.5% in extra GDP. The sixth said

GDP was 3% lower due to the EU. “Is that trade-off, between cost and benefit, between economics and politics, of overall benefit to the UK? It is not possible to give a simple, unambiguous, and universally accepted response,” the review said. “But most observers, and indeed most of the evidence received for this report, answer positively.” ‘AWKWARD PARTNER’ Critics say it fuels a perception of Britain as an awkward, semidetached partner, prone to weighing its ties with Brussels in terms of costs and benefits rather than committing fully to a unification project born out of the ashes of World War Two. The studies were published with little fanfare as parliament was in summer recess and on a day when a royalist nation was feverishly awaiting the birth of a future heir to the throne, ensuring the EU review is unlikely to hog national headlines. Cameron’s spokesman denied the release was timed to avoid inflaming eurosceptics within his ruling Conservatives. The prime minister is under pressure to appease rebellious Conservatives who believe Britain could prosper outside the EU. They see the bloc as a bloated, wasteful, meddling bureaucracy that threatens the sovereignty of national parliaments. Cameron is also threatened by the UK Independence Party, an anti-EU group that took a quarter of the vote in the areas it contested at local elections in May and is aiming for a big score in next year’s European Parliament elections. Poll suggest more Britons want to leave the EU than stay in. The most recent YouGov poll in May said 44% would vote to leave, 34% would opt to leave, 17% were undecided and four percent would not vote.

Salary negotiation no-no’s: 3 things not to say in a job interview By Amy Levin-Epstein CBS MoneyWatch Discussing compensation is one of the more delicate parts of the job interview process. You might be asked what your salary requirements are, and freeze. Or you could be offered your dream job, but with a nightmare salary. Luckily, you don’t need a degree in negotiation to successfully navigate this conversation. Mostly, it means not saying things that are akin to shooting yourself in the financial foot. Here are three phrases likely to sabotage any chance of getting paid what you think you deserve:

“What does this position typically pay?” If you give this response to the “what are your salary requirements” question, you’ll likely lower their offer before it’s even made. In the same way that you can attempt to fudge your number when asked how much you currently make, your future potential employer may bend the numbers to their advantage when discussing the standard salary. You could also come off as lazy. “It shows you haven’t done your research,” says Colette Ellis, founder of InStep Consulting. You can find this information through sites like Glassdoor.com, or through friends and colleagues in the industry.

“Yes, that sounds good.” It’s called salary negotiation for a reason -- an employee’s initial number is typically just a starting figure. This is important to remember, whether the number sounds lousy or fair. “Be prepared to come back with examples of your skills and value that support your worth,” says Ellis. They want you, so remind them of why and they may be willing to fight for you in the form of added compensation.

“...but I’m flexible on that.” This phrase essentially negates whatever number came before it. “Don’t negotiate your salary target down for the employer by saying, ‘I’m willing to accept less if that’s not in your budget’,” says Ellis. Instead, make your case and if they can’t come closer, ask about bonuses or stock options that might be on the table. The key is doing your research, and then simply having the confidence to ask for what you want.


July 24 - 30, 2013

financialmirror.com GREECE

23

Switch to ‘emerging’ status may have silver lining Greece may not relish its impending switch to the world of emerging markets, but the move should bring with it new riskseeking investors. Index compiler MSCI said last month it would downgrade Greece to emerging market status from November, citing weak market access and the small number of stocks that met the criteria for inclusion as a developed market. But emerging market investors are now likely to show more interest in it. “Greece will come back on radar screens - for eastern European funds, it becomes part of the mandate,” said Julian Mayo, co-chief investment officer at Charlemagne Capital. “It shifted from being a tiny part of one universe to a slightly less tiny part of another universe.” Mainstream investors’ interest in Greece has dwindled following the country’s bailouts and a debt restructuring, and the Athens stock index hit a 2013 low last week. Compiler Russell Indexes also demoted Greece to emerging market status earlier this year, but analysts say the MSCI indices are more closely watched and their move will have far more impact. Around $1.9 trln is benchmarked against MSCI’s developed market index - MSCI World. But Greece’s current 0.01��������� % weight������� ing in that index is so tiny that it is easy for investors to ignore it altogether. While Greece will still only have a 0.3% weighting in the global emerging markets index benchmarked by $1.3 trln in investments, within indices of central and eastern European stocks, market participants say it is likely to have a more substantial 2-4% weighting.

Mutual funds in the emerging markets Europe equity category hold a combined $17.2 bln, according to Lipper data, and all of them may start buying Greek stocks.

MORE TO CHOOSE FROM

There are only two Greek stocks in MSCI’s developed market index - Hellenic Telecom OTE ������������������������������������� and ��������������������������������� state-controlled gambling monopoly OPAP. But it will include more when it moves the country to its emerging market index, which has less stringent rules on market capitalisation, liquidity and market access. MSCI’s provisional new Greece index contains eight stocks, including National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank and power utility PPC/DEH. Greek banks have been active in southeastern Europe in recent

years, making them familiar to those focusing on the region. Veteran investors may also have traded stocks in Greece when it was last an emerging market, 12 years ago. “In the broker community, people have got very excited about Greece,” said Maarten-Jan Bakkum, emerging markets strategist at ING Investment Management. “The older people remember it.” Due to the bailouts and restructuring, Greece has been looking more and more like an old-style emerging market. Analysts say the lack of a strong institutional framework makes it reminiscent of other emerging markets in the past, such as South Africa. Although it will be the only euro zone member in the MSCI emerging market index, the new ranking is not that unusual. Two euro zone countries - Estonia and Slovenia - are in the MSCI index of frontier, or less-developed, stocks. The country is wading through its sixth year of recession and unemployment stands at nearly 27%, so the constant negative headlines may unnerve even investors in riskier emerging market assets. “I’m not really tempted,” said Gary Greenberg, head of emerging markets at Hermes Fund Managers. “There could be some very mouth-watering opportunities but the trouble is they are locked into the euro and the euro zone, so how is the economy ever going to get going?” Greek stocks have fallen nearly 10% this year, after rebounding by 33% last year. The MSCI emerging Europe index, however, has dropped a larger 18% this year. Valuations of 8.6 times earnings for Greek stocks are cheap, compared with valuations of nearly 10 times earnings for the MSCI emerging market index.

Current account balance down €3.4 bln in Jan-May Greece’s current account deficit in the five month period Jan-May 2013, shaped at EUR 3,546 mln, declining by about half from the same period last year (-39% YoY). In May alone, the current account balance showed a slim surplus of EUR 36 mln, from a EUR 1.2 bln deficit in May 2012 mainly due to the decline in the trade deficit and a rise in the services surplus. The trade deficit in the 5-month period decreased by EUR 1.6 bln (-34% ΥοΥ) to EUR 3.3 bln mainly attributed to a EUR 574 mln drop in the trade deficit excluding oil and ships and a lower net oil bill by EUR 1.6 bln. Receipts from exports of goods (excluding oil and ships) rose by 4.3% YoY to EUR 5.8 bln, while the corresponding

Alpha Bank to sell Ukraine unit Alpha Bank announced that it has agreed to sell its Ukrainian subsidiary ‘JSC Astra Bank’ to Delta Bank Group, for a EUR 82 mln consideration. The transaction is expected to conclude in 4Q13, subject to the relevant�������� ������� regulatory approvals. JSC Astra Bank was acquired by Alpha Bank in March 2008. The transaction involved no������������������������� goodwill ������������������������ as, at that period, Astra Bank was jointly developed from Alpha and the former shareholder via a fresh equity injection. As of December 2012, Astra Bank had 23 branches, loans of EUR 104 mln, deposits of EUR 58 mln and 355 employees. Alpha Bank noted that the transaction will be neutral, capital wise, while Konstantinos Manolopoulos, analyst at Investment Bank of Greece added that “given the size of Astra Bank relative to Alpha, we note that overall numbers are insignificant and thus do not see any major impact on the group’s financials.”

import bill declined by 3.5% YoY to EUR 9.1 bln. In May, exports (excluding oil and ships) were down by 6% YoY to EUR 1.17 bln, however, imports (excluding oil and ships) were also down by 12.6% YoY to EUR 1,829 mln. In the 5-month period, the surplus of the services balance rose by 7.6% YoY to EUR 3,497 mln, due to higher net travel receipts and lower net payments for “other” services. The income account deficit decreased by 27% YoY to EUR 1,517 mln, due to lower net payments for interest after the debt restructuring. Finally, the current transfers balance, showed a surplus of EUR 1,661 mln, up by EUR 457 mln year-on-year mainly attributed to net receipts of the sectors other than general government (mainly emigrants’ remittances).

EFG Eurobank part privatisation pushed to 2014

Piraeus to decide on Geniki by September

EFG Eurobank’s partial privatisation plans, according to the revised MoU targets, will be delayed for six months, with the new deadline being set to April 2014, instead of October 2013 previously. A report by newssite euro2day said the initial target will involve the apartial divestment of a 25-30% stake from the HFSF state bank rescue fund to a new shareholder. The same sources argue that the reason for the extension provided is associated with the fresh stress-tests, scheduled for later on this year for all Greek banks. “So far, two funds have expressed interest for Eurobank with Fairfax Holdings rumoured to have offered EUR 2.5 bln for the bank, which implies a 0.6x BV multiple,” said Konstantinos Manolopoulos, analyst at the Investment Bank of Greece.

Piraeus Bank will announce by the end of September, its plan for the transformation of its Geniki Bank subsidiary, into a lender specialising in bad loan management and company restructurings. According to news reports, Geniki will proceed with a capital increase of EUR 500 mln aiming to attract new investors, with Piraeus waiving its right, becoming only a minority shareholder. Apart from managing NPLs, the new Geniki Bank will aim in supporting SMEs providing advice over issues like debt and corporate restructurings, finding new investors (ie. fresh equity), etc. All in all, Piraeus will seek to hire outside experts to enhance the manpower of Geniki and implement the project. During the bank’s recent AGM, Chairman Sallas said that these plans were being seriously considered by Piraeus. “Plans to manage NPLs will be the number priority for Greek banks in the coming months, given the rising number (30%) of NPLs,” explained Konstantinos Manolopoulos, analyst at the Investment Bank of Greece.


July 24 - 30, 2013

24 BACK PAGE financialmirror.com

As Fed takes a back seat, earnings rule market WALL ST WEEK AHEAD Wall Street is experiencing its best month since January and looks poised to extend the rally with a deluge of earnings this week, although significant gains may be harder to come by with major indexes at record highs. Eight Dow components and Apple are among the companies that will report in one of the busiest weeks of the earnings season. Some 157 companies in the S&P 500 index will release results. Second-quarter earnings have been above forecasts so far, but analysts’ estimates have dropped precipitously since the start of the year. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are seen rising 2.9����������������� %���������������� , according to Thomson ����������� Reuters data, down from 8.4% growth expected at the start of the year. Revenue is anticipated growing 1.1%. Still, stronger-than-expected reports spurred gains in IBM , General Electric and others. In addition, Wall Street banks Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported strong earnings. Last week, the Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P added 0.7% and the Nasdaq slid 0.3%. The benchmark S&P is up 18.6% for the year. On the other side of the ledger, Microsoft was a big disappointment, and its stock fell 12% on Friday. Both Microsoft and Google fell short of Wall Street expectations, causing their shares to slump. Of the 104 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported through Friday, 65.4% had earnings above analyst expectations, while

51% topped revenue estimates.

EYES ON APPLE

Apple, the second-largest U.S. company by market capitalisation, will be watched to see if it can reverse the trend of weaker-thanexpected tech sector earnings. The company is expected to show a drop of more than 21% in quarterly profit and revenue growth of 0.2%. The Federal Reserve has been the primary driver of the market for a long time. But that should change, at least for a time, after investors were reassured that the Fed would be flexible in the timing of its withdrawal of stimulus measures and would keep interest rates ultra-low for an extended period. The Fed’s stimulus played a major part in the S&P’s advance so far this year. Investors now speculate earnings will be the next catalyst to push stocks higher. “So far it’s been about the Fed supporting the movement upwards, but at a certain point there’s a handoff and earnings will have to take over,” said Kristina Hooper, head of investment and client strategies at Allianz Global Investors in New York. “Earnings are going to be so critical to the future of the stock market recovery.” Analysts have generally been bullish on 2013’s second half, though they have been slowly lowering estimates for the third and fourth quarters to reflect concerns about the economy’s growth. Per-share earnings growth is expected to be

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7.8% in the third quarter and 12.4% in the fourth quarter. That compares with a July 1 estimate of 8.5% growth and 13% growth, respectively, according to Thomson Reuters data.

NEED FOR REVENUE GROWTH

“Revenue growth is especially important,” said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston. “If revenues aren’t increasing, it’s going to be awfully tough for the bottom line to increase.” Joy, who helps oversee about $708 bln in assets, added that it was encouraging to see revenue coming in slightly ahead of expectations. “My sense is that the markets can hang in there next week,” he said. “The trend is to the upside.” General Electric Chief Executive Jeff Immelt said he was bullish on the outlook for the rest of the year, a sentiment echoed by other executives. But Nick Heymann, an analyst at William Blair & Co, which trades GE shares, said for GE to achieve its goal of boosting 2013 margins 0.7����������������������������������� % would ��������������������������������� “require Herculean improvement in the second half.” With 21% of the S&P components having

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reported, roughly two-thirds have beaten profit expectations, slightly above the historical average. About half of the companies have topped revenue forecasts, a rate better than the average over the past four quarters. This week’s earnings roster includes Dow components AT&T , McDonald’s and Boeing Co. Ford Motor Co , Visa and United Parcel Service are also due. UPS, which is viewed as a proxy for business activity, recently cut its outlook, citing a weak U.S. economy and overcapacity in the global air freight market. Economic indicators this week include sales of new and existing homes. Sentiment among builders remains bullish, though housing starts and permits for future homes hit a 10-month low in June. “Obviously a big surprise there to the downside will cause a lot of caution,” said Andrew Yorks, chief investment officer at Four Wood Capital Partners in New York. “The housing sector’s been a core part of what the Fed is focusing on.” June existing-home sales, which are due Monday, are seen rising 0.6% compared with a 4.2% jump in the previous month. New-home sales for June are also expected to rise, according to Thomson Reuters estimates.

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