AVOCADO IN MEXICO THE GIANT'S PROJECTIONS FOR 2025 EUROPE, AND THE DIVERSITY OF ACTORS WILL IT BE ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE?
MOROCCO IN THE SIGHT THE NEW PLAYER REVOLUTIONIZES THE EUROPEAN MARKET
EUROPE and the diversity of actors: Will it be enough for everyone?
MOROCCO in the spotlight: The new player that revolutionizes the European market
REPORT
PERÚ is preparing a season with fewer shocks and consolidated volumes in Europe and Asia
Growth of COLOMBIAN
avocado: “We must be capable of moving all the fruit that we will produce in the coming years”
REPORT
Carmen Gloria Lüttges and the future of the Chilean avocado: A vision of the challenges and new strategies
REPORT
“Between May and July there will be a greater concentration of Peruvian avocados in the market”
“BRAZIL’S avocado has already managed to consolidate a fixed clientele”
Avocados from MÉXICO: the giant’s projections for 2025
The rise of the AFRICAN avocado: How to overcome the challenges to conquer the global market?
REPORT
Avomagazine Director Sebastián de la Cuadra I.
General Editor
Paulina Ormazábal M.
Avobook Director Gabriel Velásquez O.
Data Analysts
Tomás de la Cuadra V. Diego de la Cuadra V. Journalists
Claudio Espejo B. Trinidad Navarro T.
Commercial Manager
Jorge Molina D. Diego de la Cuadra V.
Design and Layout
Pamela Peréz R.
Digital Support
Esteban Pastenes G. AvoMagazine
UNDERSTANDING THE MARKET TO SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES
In recent years, those of us dedicated to the avocado industry have identified the need to make the data from the entire export chain more visible. We know that without transparency, we risk making poor decisions, leading to economic losses.
Understanding what is happening in destination markets, analyzing trade volumes in detail, and monitoring trends in producing countries are essential steps to identifying imbalances and uncovering opportunities in time.
This need gave birth to the Avobook Report, which later expanded into a full suite of data and content services, including AvoMagazine, now in its second edition.
Our goal is to be the world’s leading platform for avocado industry data and insights. We have built credibility to earn trust, becoming a powerful commercial tool that supports decision-making.
Reliable, industry-sourced, and expertly proces-
By SEBASTIÁN
DE LA CUADRA CEO AVOBOOK
sed information benefits the entire supply chain— from producers and packers to exporters, receivers, customs, logistics, and transportation services. This motivates us to continue expanding our data sources, refining our analyses, and delivering more comprehensive industry reports.
When we talk about the “Avobook Community,” we mean it. Many of our users also contribute information, trusting us to process and present it in ways that enhance understanding.
This is a collective effort. True business success lies not in isolation but in collaboration. Understanding the industry allows us to maximize the opportunities it presents.
We invite you to explore this edition of AvoMagazine, a journey through the global avocado market, its numbers, projections, and challenges—bridging insights from both origin and destination of the fruit that connects us all.
and the Diversity of Suppliers: Europe
WILL THERE BE ROOM FOR EVERYONE?
In this continent, avocado demand continues to grow, and the high number of supplying countries contributes to a diversity of calibers and ensures that volume requirements are met. But to what extent can this diversity coexist?
The European avocado market has two defining characteristics: first, it is growing—at a slow but steady pace. Second, it is supplied by multiple origins. Peru leads this list, accounting for around 40% of the fruit traded on the continent. Below that, the rest of the exporters are experiencing a period in which the growth of some directly influences the commercial decisions of others.
Given this situation, several questions arise to understand what is happening in this market: Is there symmetry between the growth in consumption and the increasing supply from different origins in Europe? Can so many suppliers continue to coexist in a market where annual growth is no more than 10%?
AvoMagazine raised these questions with two seasoned experts in the European avocado market: Víctor Ruete, advisor at Tropical Millenium, a company belonging to Baika; and Fabrice de Jonge, former executive of the Dutch company Groot Fresh Group, who now owns his own import business, Exoticals.
Both agree that the potential for growth is sig nificant, and there fore, the conditions exist for a market with multiple su ppliers.
“Europe still has great potential for increased avo cado consumption. Currently, annual
per capita consumption in the region is estimated at just over 1 kg, while in the United States, it reaches nearly 4 kg per year. Additionally, it is important to consider that there are high-potential demand markets outside the 27 EU member states and the United Kingdom. This indicates that supply can continue expanding to meet a demand that still has room for growth,” explains Víctor Ruete.
THE IMPACT OF EMERGING SUPPLIERS
“Many
of these exporting countries share production seasons, making them more or less competitive depending on seasonality and their ability to diversify their supply”
However, the dynamics of this evolution are not uniform across the continent. Certain areas, such as Eastern Europe, are driving this increase. Fabrice de Jonge explains that the growth curve is no longer as steep as in previous years when it reached around 13% annually. Now, that figure has dropped to below 10% on average, but with certain regions standing out more than others.
Víctor
“For example, there is growing demand in Poland, where purchasing power is increasing. We see significant demand in Scandinavia, Spain, and France due to their high per capita consumption. Additionally, the United Kingdom and Germany are also strong markets due to their large population
VICTOR RUETE
Counselor of Tropical Millenium, a company belonging to Baika.
Another crucial difference between Europe and the United States lies in the number of supplying countries and their market share. In the U.S., approximately 85% of avocados come from Mexico, while in Europe, multiple exporting countries coexist.
Ruete
“Many of these exporting countries share production seasons, making them more or less competitive depending on seasonality and their ability to diversify their supply. Peru, for example, represents about 40% of the European market, while the rest is distributed among at least ten different origins. In this context, each country’s strategy to position its fruit is crucial in such a highly competitive environment,” warns Víctor Ruete, advisor at Tropical Millenium.
This highlights a key characteristic currently observed in Europe: the dynamic shifts in market share.
“The avocado industry is highly influenced by climatic factors that significantly impact production, leading to seasonal variations in supply. However, we have seen growth in both production and the participation of new origins. One example is Colombia, which has established itself as the world’s third-largest Hass avocado exporter, followed closely by emerging suppliers such as Morocco and Kenya. Additionally, new players like Brazil, Tanzania,
Mozambique, Guatemala, and Ecuador are expanding their presence in the market. With the continuous entry of new hectares into production, we can expect market share dynamics to keep evolving in the coming years,” explains Ruete.
By the end of 2024, signs of this shifting landscape became evident. One of the most notable was the strong push by Morocco, which entered the market with both high volume and quality, extending its campaign until at least late February.
The evolution of Moroccan harvests could influence commercial decisions from other origins. Ruete points out: “The arrival of Morocco in the European market has been significant and has impacted the supply from other origins, such as late-season Chilean fruit, early Peruvian production, and particularly Mediterranean suppliers. Most Moroccan orchards are still young, meaning that many hectares are in the development phase and have yet to reach full productive maturity.”
In the short term, this new scenario presents a challenge for traditional winter-season suppliers like Israel, Spain, and Portugal, who must now adjust to increased competition during a period that has historically seen more limited supply.
Fabrice de Jonge shares this perspective, noting that Morocco has an additional advantage: lower prices due to the absence of a strong domestic market like Chile’s. Moreover, its growth has
been remarkable. “I estimate that this year, their volume grew by nearly 50% compared to last year, increasing from around 60,000 to 90,000 tons,” de Jonge details.
Looking ahead, Ruete predicts that Morocco’s continued expansion could further reshape market dynamics, reinforcing the competitive landscape in Europe.
CHALLENGES: LOGISTICS AND TRANSIT TIMES
Another key characteristic emerging in the European avocado market is the demand for different calibers, which varies depending on the type of buyer and the destination country. For this reason, Fabrice de Jonge firmly believes that multiple origins can coexist within the market. One of the key factors determining the success of an exporting country is its ability to supply both the right volume and calibers at the right time of the year and in line with the specific needs of each destination.
“Going back to the example of Morocco, it’s important to consider
that its growth is focused on large calibers. They don’t produce small sizes. That’s why, right now (mid-February), there is strong market pressure on calibers 12, 14, and 16. This is why we need to manage multiple origins. For example, I source from Colombia, which supplies calibers ranging from 20 to 32. That’s the advantage of having multiple origins—each local market demands different fruit,” he explains.
De Jonge points out that calibers between 16 and 22 will continue to be the most in-demand across Europe. However, there are important regional differences in size preferences:
“For example, while calibers like 18 and 20 can be sold in various countries, the preferences are not the same everywhere. Here in the Netherlands, we don’t consume large calibers like 12 or 14. Those sizes are more suited to Southern Europe, particularly Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, smaller calibers are more in demand in Northern Europe, including Scandinavia,” he explains.
owner of the importing company “Exoticals”.
Morocco in the spotlight: The new player who revolutionizes THE EUROPEAN AVOCADO MARKET
In the dynamic world of international fruit trade, Morocco has emerged strongly, challenging the status quo and reconfiguring the offer map. high-quality avocados at competitive prices. The growing demand for avocado in Europe, driven by its health benefits and culinary versatility, has created a favorable environment for Morocco’s growth in the market.
This North African country, with its privileged geographical location and favorable climatic conditions, has positioned itself as a key player in the European avocado market, generating shock waves that resonate in traditional producers such as Peru, Colombia and Chile.
The growing presence of Moroccan avocados in European supermarkets is the result of an ambitious and well-executed strategy, which has been able to capitalize on the country’s competitive advantages and adapt to the demands of an increasingly demanding market.
Countries such as Colombia, Chile and Peru, which for years have been the main suppliers of avocado to the Euro-
pean continent, now face a competitor that has successfully established itself in the market.
The key lies in a combination of strategic factors. Its geographical location allows it to quickly reach European markets with significantly reduced transportation costs. Favorable climatic conditions allow for the production of high-quality avocados. Furthermore, its commitment to innovation and technology has improved the efficiency of its production processes and its adaptation to the demands of European consumers.
This combination has made Morocco an attractive supplier for European retailers, who are looking to offer fresh,
CURRENT CAMPAIGN: INCREASE IN VOLUME AND QUALITY
According to Abdellah Elyamlahi, president of the Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA), the current harvest campaign in Morocco, which began at the end of September and will end approximately the second week of April, has been a success in terms of volume
and quality. So far, almost 80,000 tons of avocado have been exported, and it is estimated that the season will close with a volume close to 100,000 tons.
“Weather conditions have been generally favorable,” says Elyamlahi. “There were no excessively high temperatures, which allowed flowering to continue on the trees. However, there was a delay in production due to the cold. We had two days with temperatures close to 0 degrees, which slightly affected the harvest on some farms, especially those furthest from the sea or located on low land. Apart from this, the weather has been stable and beneficial for production.”
Despite the success of the current campaign, Moroccan producers have faced challenges, such as the production of large avocado sizes, which currently have a surplus on the market, while demand is focused on small sizes. This situation has been influenced by the stoppage of exports in Colombia, which has generated a shortage of
AVOCADO PROCESSING MACHINERY
small sizes in Europe. As a result, Spain and Morocco are the main suppliers at the moment.
Regarding the yield of the crop, Elyamlahi highlights that it has been better than the previous campaign, thanks to more stable and favorable weather
We manufacture and integrate innovative solutions backed by our experience. We support and advise our clients in the operation, providing excellent after-sales service.
WASHING
SORTING
SANITIZING
SLICING AND CUBING
PULPING
MIXING
FILLING AND PACKAGING
At we are specialists in machinery for processing AVOCADO
Lamb Hass plantations in Morocco.
conditions. “Last season we experienced very high temperatures during the summer, reaching 42-43 degrees, which negatively affected production. However, this year the weather has been more stable, without extreme fluctuations, which has favored the yield of the crop,” he explains.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARKET: THE PARADOX OF MOROCCAN EFFICIENCY
However, the outlook is not free of dark clouds. Yassin Chaib, manager of Mavoca, a Moroccan avocado exporter, points out that the first weeks of 2025 have been one of great uncertainty in the market. “With 70% of production underway, exporters already face strong uncertainty in prices, which do not seem to stabilize,” he warns.
This uncertainty is accentuated by the disconnection between supply and demand for sizes. Morocco has emerged with a massive supply of large-caliber fruit, just when the market is demanding smaller and medium sizes. “This disconnect between supply and demand has generated an excess of large sizes, such as 12 and 14, while buyers look for avocados in the 20, 22, 24, 26 and 28 ranges,” explains Chaib.
Morocco faces a paradox: its productive efficiency and export capacity have allo wed it to position itself as a key player in the avocado market, but the lack of alignment with consumer preferences could become a serious obstacle.
So far, Morocco has exported 84 thousand tons, with some 30 to 40 thousand tons still to be placed on the market. However, the prospects are not encouraging: far from a possible recovery, expectations point to a drop in prices, even more so with the imminent arrival of fruit from Peru, whose reaction in the markets could define the course of the coming weeks.
Faced with this panorama, Moroccan producers have begun to diversify their harvest areas. While coastal regions, with sandy soils and abundant water, generate larger sizes, areas with less water availability produce smaller fruit, more aligned with current demand. This strategy seeks to balance supply, but the big question remains whether the market will absorb the remaining volume without a further drop in prices.
Likewise, Morocco faces a paradox: its productive efficiency and export capacity have allowed it to position itself as a key player in the avocado market, but the lack of alignment with consu-
mer preferences could become a serious obstacle. “The lesson for the future is clear: production must adjust to market trends, not only in volume, but in the specifics of demand. Otherwise, exporters run the risk of seeing their profit margins reduced in an increasingly demanding and competitive market,” concludes Chaib.
EXPANSION AND CONSOLIDATION IN THE MARKET
In recent years, Morocco has experienced sustained growth in the area under avocado cultivation, currently reaching between 11,000 and 12,000 hectares. According to Elyamlahi, the expansion will continue, although in a more moderate way, without exponential growth.
Moroccan production has gained importance in the European market, thanks to the quality of the fruit and the geographical proximity, which allows it to arrive faster and in optimal conditions. “Customers like Moroccan fruit,” says Elyamlahi. “In terms of quality, it is similar to that of other countries, but production in Morocco is more stable and organized. On the other hand, Spain and Israel are more subject to market speculation.”
Demand for Moroccan avocados in key markets has evolved positively in recent years, driven by recognition of the high quality of the fruit. “We are gaining more and more presence in the market,” says Elyamlahi. “Consumers have recognized that Moroccan fruit is of high quality, which has driven the growth of exports. In the last three years, we have gone from selling 40,000 tons to an estimated 100,000 tons at the end of this campaign, reflecting the increase in demand.”
For the coming years, Morocco hopes
YASSIN CHAIB, Manager of Mavoca, avocado exporter from Morocco
that avocado production will continue to increase progressively, as new farms begin to produce more fruit. “We believe that Morocco will consolidate itself as the main exporting country of avocados in Africa and the Mediterranean,” says Elyamlahi. “Within three to four years, we will be able to reach even more competitive volumes.”
REACTION IN LATIN AMERICA: STRATEGIES OF CHILE AND PERU
Given the rise of Morocco, producers from Chile and Peru are implementing various strategies to maintain their competitiveness in the European market.
In Chile, producers are investing in new irrigation and water management technologies to mitigate the effects of drought and ensure the sustainability of their crops, according to a Rabobank report. Additionally, they are exploring new varieties of avocado that are better adapted to changing climate
conditions.
In Peru, the focus is on strengthening commercial ties with Asia. The Hass Avocado Producers Association of Peru (ProHass) has been actively working to promote the consumption of Peruvian avocado in China.
Competition in the European avocado market is intensifying, and producers in Chile and Peru are responding with innovation, diversification and a renewed focus on quality and sustainability. The future of the avocado market in Europe will depend on the ability of all ac tors to adapt to changing con sumer demands and the new realities of international trade.
ABDELLAH ELYAMLAHI
President of the Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA)
It is estimated that Marruecos the season will close with a volume close to 100,000 tons.
PRODUCERS SEASONALITY
In these graphs, we can see the geographical distribution of Hass avocado production on different continents. The American continent is the main producer, as well as the continents of Europe, Oceania, Asia and Africa. The seasonalities of the main producers are also shown, along with the surface area in hectares at each origin. This allows us to understand how production is complemented in different regions and how it varies throughout the year.
PRODUCTORES
ESTACIONALIDAD
PRODUCING COUNTRIES
PAÍSES PRODUCTORES
PRODUCTORES
ESTACIONALIDAD
SEASON CALENDAR MAIN COUNTRIES
CALENDARIO TEMPORADA PRINCIPALES PAÍSES
SUDÁFRICA
PORTUGAL
Hectáreas de Aguacate por país
Shelf-Life
PRODUCERS
The Hass avocado market continues to expand, with Mexico consolidating itself as the largest producer and exporter, supplying mainly the United States. Peru and Colombia have strengthened their presence in Europe, while Chile maintains a strong commercial relationship with this market.
60.645 22.115
Peru sets the tone in the European market, contributing half a million tons per season. However, last season did not have expected volumes, mainly due to the impact of climatic factors on its crops
PRODUCERS
PERU
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
WEEKLY EXPORTS OF HASS AVOCADO 2024
Peru projects a SEASON WITH FEWER SETBACKS AND STABILITY in volumes in Europe, Chile, and Asia
Peruvian production suffered a 10% drop in 2024, but a recovery is projected this year that will allow the second largest avocado exporter in the world to return to its usual volumes
Europe does not have an almost exclusive supplier of avocados, like the hegemony that Mexico has in the United States. It is a market with multiple players, but where Peru sets the tone, providing half a million tons per season. It is the largest shipper of the fruit to that destination, entering mainly through the port area of Rotterdam, in the Netherlands; and Algeciras, in Spain.
However, last season did not have the expected volumes, mainly due to the impact of climatic factors on its crops. The same volumes could be maintained in the northernmost avocado-growing area, but which show signs of improvement in the south.
With this, a 2025 rebound is projected that -at least- should normalize the tons of avocados sent to all markets.
This is what engineer Alfredo Lira explained to Avomagazine, commenting that the industry is adapting to the new conditions, because “the impacts of climate change that were expec ted for another 15 years are alre ady affecting production in some regions where water problems had never occurred” (see box).
However, production conditions for the 2025 season have improved,
with the recovery of the rains and the consequent influence on the performance of the fields. Thanks to this, the downward curve that was experienced in 2024 will not deepen.
Lira believes that the total volume will be similar to that which ended in 2024, but with a slight rebound of between 5% and 10%, in the general projection.
“Perhaps there will be 5% more total volume on the coast. The campaign of La Sierra de Perú is always growing, which is already an important player, which are fruits that start in January, with which we can go until MarchApril, and from there we get to September. Then we jump to September - October, because in Arequipa there is also a significant volume that is coming out a little later,” he explains.
Given this projection, a total of 550 thousand tons of fruit could be reached, which represents an interesting recovery, if we remember that last season it did not exceed 500 thousand.
In addition, there is a factor that would also help plan the import and commercial decisions of the other origins that supply mainly to Europe: “There should not be a concentration of volume from May to July, but rather it will be
more spread out throughout the year,” says Lira.
PROHASS ALSO BETS ON RECOVERY
From the Association of Producers and Exporters of Hass Avocado of Peru (ProHass), they agree that the projection of the export of avocados from that country will improve, compared to last season.
Its president, José Antonio Castro, tells Avomagazine that 2025 will bring a normalization of shipments, particularly to Europe.
Castro affirms that one of the main differences between last season and the one that is beginning is that the meteorological factors have stabilized: “The climatic conditions are normalizing in the main avocado producing areas in Peru. This makes us think that the 10% drop in 2024 will recover and we will even have significant growth.”
As expected, the focus will once again be on Europe. According to him, the distribution of the Peruvian volume will be similar to that of recent years: 62% destined for Europe; 13% to the United States; 12% to Chile; 7% to China; and 2% to Japan. The remainder will be destined for various other markets in Latin America and Asia.
Beyond the concern for a more homogeneous distribution in terms of volumes or advancing fruit shipments, the guild is focused on ensuring that the fruit is released to the market only once it is in the right condition to have a good arrival at its destination markets.
“At ProHass, we want to raise awareness among all producers, exporters,
JOSE ANTONIO CASTRO
President of the Association of Producers and Exporters of Hass Avocado of Peru.
importers and authorities to join forces to export avocados that are physiologically ripe. This starts with having a dry matter content of over 21.5% and hopefully we can start our harvests with a dry matter content of no less than 22.5%. This would help to produce better quality fruit,” says José Antonio Castro.
Furthermore, he recalled that the production and export curve has a fairly well-known behavior, where the largest volumes are exported in the weeks of June and July.
In terms of sizes, the industry expects a recovery of the industry’s common volumes: “For this, two basic conditions are needed: a greater number of fruits per tree and a greater weight per fruit, which impacts the size. This year, Peru should recover its typical basket of sizes, that is, fruits between 225 and 285 grams.”
THREE NON-EUROPEAN SOURCES OF PERUVIAN AVOCADO
Europe will always be the axis of the Peruvian avocado marketing strategy. However, there are three areas that will receive important attention in the next campaign, due to the impact of the new alternatives for exporting the fruit, thanks to the launch of the new port of Chancay and the consolidation of fruit marketing in Chile.
Although Alfredo Lira does not project a significant increase in shipments to China, he believes that there could be growth in the medium term: “In the short term, I do not think we will exceed 60 containers per week, to prevent the price from falling. At least there will be
no change this or next year. What is happening is that China is planting in some regions, just as they are doing with blueberries and as they did some time ago with asparagus. This generates internal consumption in the counter-season for us, who are in the southern hemisphere. So, I think that the business could grow in China, but in the medium term. The port could help the fruit arrive in the conditions they want and those 60 containers a week could become 70 or 80. But it is not important yet.”
Another relevant focus will be Chile, which acts as a relief valve to release volumes: “I always say that if you send 600 containers a week from Peru to Europe during the season, prices suffer. But in Chile, we have reached the point of sending 120 containers a week and they eat them. Even though Europe has 500 million inhabitants and Chile has 20 million, Chilean consumption is remarkable and it is a very important valve.”
The third focal point of the strategy will be the North American market, where Peruvian avocados are always welcome. “Unfortunately, they are used to lower the price of Mexican and Californian fruit. Co lombian avocados have been a little higher than Peruvian avocados, be cause they have a shorter journey and arrive in better conditions,” explains Lira.
Production recovery area by area
Peru is taking on the challenges presented by the weather, in order to remain the second most important producer of avocado exports in the world.
The most complex problems are in Olmos, which has presented very low yields, of up to 3,500 kilos per hectare, when its productive capacity could reach up to 15 tons.
“These fields are going to recover, but not as much as expected. There is an effect of lack of water in the north and a problem with the dam, which has not allowed to have the correct water supplies, in full setting and initial growth of the fruit,” explains Alfredo Lira. Although he warns that it is not a situation that affects all fields.
“There are some fields that have wells, which will be better than those that have not had the water supply,” he details.
Among the most complicated northern areas is Piura, which is characterized by having rains from the Ecuadorian jungle or jungle brow, which always flow down the rivers.
“But there is no water and part of the mango season has been lost. This has not been seen in 100 years. In the case of Olmo and Piura, for example, decisions have to be made about drilling wells and making reservoirs, but these are large investments,” warns Lira.
However, in the south, the weather conditions are within expectations: “It is raining in La Sierra, the rivers are falling as they used to: in December and January, which was normal.”
ALFREDO LIRA Founder and Executive Director of Leal Investments and Consultories.
A partial recovery is expected in La Libertad, where volumes will increase compared to last year, where there was a significant drop, but because the tree rested. Although yields above 25 tons are not expected, there will be between 18 and 20 tons.
In the case of the central and southern coast of Peru, up to Ica, it corresponds to the “off” year. In 2024 there were important volumes and prices but now it corresponds to the period with less production, although without falling to worrying numbers.
“Between
May and July, There Will Be a Higher Concentration of Peruvian Avocados in the Market”
This is the forecast shared with AvoMagazine by Mario Bazán, General Manager of Phartec Produce, an exporter that collaborates with 150 producers across different growing regions in Peru and is projecting to export 170 containers this season.
MARIO BAZÁN, General Manager of Phartec Produce.
Mario Bazán Alburqueque has nearly a decade of experience in international trade of agricultural products from various origins, including his home country, Peru, as well as Chile, Ecuador, and Colombia.
He is the General Manager of Phartec Produce, an export company that works with around 150 producers, ranging from small farmers in the highlands and inter-Andean valleys to medium-sized growers with land extensions between 40 and 60 hectares.
“This diversity in our supplier base not only allows us to secure significant volumes but also supports the development of small producers, contributing to the sustainability of the sector,” he tells AvoMagazine.
The company expects to export approximately 170 containers of Hass avocados this season. It works exclusively with third-party fruit sourced from various regions—the highlands, inter-Andean valleys, central coast, and southern Peru—ensuring market presence from February to September.
In this conversation, he provides key background information to help understand what lies ahead for Peru’s avocado season, as the leading supplier of the fruit in Europe, whose projections will influence the industry’s direction across the continent.
What differences have been observed in the fields between last season and the upcoming one, and how are they impacting production?
“This year, we have observed a rather unique scenario compared to the previous season. During our field visits and meetings with producers, we identified that regions such as the highlands, the south, and parts of the coast are experiencing a reduction in fruit production due to adverse climatic factors. This is more evident among small-scale producers, but even some medium-sized producers, with farms ranging from 50 to 60 hectares, have reported similar situations. However, in contrast, the majority of ProHass-affiliated producers have shown more stability, leading to some discrepancies in the available data. This results in a scenario where no clear national trend has been established yet, which will undoubtedly impact campaign planning.”
How is the Peruvian avocado season projected this year in terms of volume and sizes compared to last season?
“Recently, during the Berlin trade fair, the first projections for the 2025 season were presented, estimating a production of around 600,000 metric tons. This would represent a 10% increase compared to 2023 and approximately 100,000 more tons than in 2024. Regarding fruit sizes, from the beginning of the highland harvest, we have noticed a slight increase in the average fruit weight, which is a positive sign. However, we have also observed a lower fruit load per tree, which keeps us on alert to determine whether this size increase will compensate for the lower quantity. We remain optimistic, but it is still too early to determine how this trend will develop.”
Do you think there will be a concentration of fruit over a short period, or will export distribution be more even?
“Up until week 06, we have observed lower shipment volumes, partly because the European market still has local fruit and supply from other origins offering good sizes. However, we anticipate that between May, June, and part of July, there will be a higher concentration of fruit, particularly due to delays in Olmos caused by water shortages, which may coincide with production from La Libertad. This could create a peak in supply during that period, undoubtedly posing logistical and commercial challenges.”
So, there will be significant commercial challenges to prevent this from impacting the business.
“This will be a challenging year, where creativity and collaboration with strategic partners will be crucial. We will need to work closely with our producers and clients to efficiently manage volumes and ensure that the fruit reaches the markets in optimal conditions. Coordination and flexibility will be key to navigating this season successfully.”
COLOMBIA
COLOMBIA
5.946
CHILE
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
BRASIL CALIFORNIA
929
Exported containers 2024
PRODUCERS
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
Containers Containers Containers
EXPORTS OF HASS AVOCADO 2024
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
CALIFORNIA
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
8.651
Exported containers 2024
SUDÁFRICA
EXPORTS OF HASS AVOCADO 2024
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024 SOUTH AFRICA
2.955 Exported containers 2024
Arrival Week
ESPAÑA
2.072 Contenedores exportados 2024
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024 SPAIN
2.072
Exported containers 2024
MARRUECOS
MARRUECOS
Contenedores exportados 2024
Week
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
ISRAEL
ISRAEL
4.073
Exported containers 2024
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024 Containers Containers
MAROCCO
1.616 Exported containers 2024
EXPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
High altitude avocados for the world.
FROM THE CENTER OF THE PLANET
Mexico: FOR 2025 OF THE GIANT PROJECTIONS Avocados from
Both in Michoacan and Jalisco, there was a decline in volume but an increase in prices during 202425. However, weather conditions were better for the fruit to be harvested from mid-2025 onward, which should increase the exported tonnage while stabilizing prices.
We are Interanza, a family-owned and innovative company, established as the leading exporter of Hass and Fuerte avocados from Ecuador. Under our brand Sierra D’Or, we serve eight international markets across Europe, Western Asia, the Middle East, and South America.
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Mexico is the world’s leading producer of the fruit, and everything it does influences the global market and impacts the commercial decisions of other exporting countries. Among all producing states, Michoacán is the most important. In 2022, it managed to produce 1.8 million tons of fruit, and in a regular year, it hovers around 1.5 million. It is followed by Jalisco, which can produce around 450,000 tons.
The 2024-25 season faced certain particularities that led to a decline in total volume, mainly due to a drop in sizes caused by a lack of rain in Michoacán and heat waves affecting crops in Jalisco.
However, experts and industry representatives agree that weather conditions will not be a detrimental factor for the season starting mid-year, meaning that production and export capacity will
be closer to normal levels.
Avomagazine spoke with two key players in the avocado powerhouse, who forecast a strong 2025, both for the remainder of the current main season and—above all—for the one ahead.
SIZES: THE ATYPICAL FACTOR IMPACTING BUSINESS
Antonio Villaseñor, director of Aztecavo and a frequent columnist for Avobook, explains that by early February, 50% of the projected 1.3 million tons for the 2024-25 season in Michoacán had already been harvested. This amounts to approximately 700,000 tons, meaning that from now until June, an average of 30,000 tons per week should be shipped.
The particularity of this season is that sizes have influenced the business more than in normal seasons, with a high percentage of production yielding small or medium-sized fruit.
In Michoacán, this condition—although improving at the beginning of 2025—will persist until the end of the season.
“We will see if in the colder months we can get larger sizes or if we will ultimately finish the season with medium sizes. And that will obviously have an impact on the market, as we have alre -
ady seen,” Villaseñor explains.
In Jalisco, heat waves and large daily temperature fluctuations also affected fruit sizes.
Eleazar Oseguera Aguayo, president of the Association of Avocado Producers and Exporters of Jalisco, describes this season as “atypical”, where size has been the key factor affecting the business: “We have the same number of fruit units per tree, but fewer total tons.”
“We usually harvest between 15 and 18 tons per hectare on average. However, in some areas, only 9 tons were produced. This wasn’t due to a lack of fruit, but rather its weight, as avocados were much smaller.”
This factor limited Jalisco’s production to 350,000 tons by the end of 2024, a figure they hope to significantly improve in 2025.
assume they produce at a reasonable average—if it were the global standard of 10 tons per hectare, or even at 7.5— we are talking about a production that should reach at least 1.5 million,” explains Villaseñor.
“The season that begins in June-July should bring a very good harvest because this time, we had an excellent rainy season. So, in theory, it looks quite strong, and the fruit size should improve,” Villaseñor adds.
“The season that begins in June-July should bring a very good harvest because this time, we had an excellent rainy season. So, in theory, it looks quite strong, and the fruit size should improve”
Antonio Villaseñor
The lower volumes of large-sized fruit have resulted in a phenomenon where the decline in total tons has been offset by excellent prices for larger avocados. In fact, the price gap between sizes has been wider than usual. One example is the difference between sizes 48 and 60, where price variations reached $15 to $20 per 25-pound box.
PROJECTION FOR MEXICAN AVOCADO FOR THE 2025-26 SEASON
Although it is still early for accurate projections, it is believed that the production for the season star ting in Michoacán in July should reach at least 1.5 million tons.
“In the U.S. program, there are 180,000 hectares. If we
ANTONIO VILLASEÑOR, Director of Aztecavo and columnist for Avobook
However, he also warns that prices should normalize, bringing them closer to those of a regular season: “The prices we are seeing right now for size 48 are record-breaking for this time of year. So, with a normal harvest, prices would tend to decrease. Obviously, when we have strong harvests, the key is to promote the product so that everything that is harvested is properly distributed. To achieve that, we need a price that encourages promotion.”
In the case of Jalisco, orchards are showing signs of good yields. Eleazar Oseguera states, “The orchards have a heavy fruit load, and we
lity produce for export.”
ted by another factor: the incorporation of orchards that were in se and
those that are now close to certification for entry into the U.S. market.
“We should exceed 400,000 tons. As more municipalities gain approval to export to the United States, our shipments will increase. This year, we expect to reach 200,000 to 220,000 tons of production for the U.S., compared to the 140,000 sent in 2024. This increase is due to the newly approved municipalities, those that entered mid-season, and those that are expanding,” he predicts.
Currently, five municipalities are awaiting approval to ship fruit to the United States, with three expected to be authorized soon. The remaining two should be ready by July or August. Once approved, there is a six-month period before shipments can begin. Therefore, the ideal scenario would be for them to start exporting from May 2025.
Eleazar Oseguera Aguayo President of the Asociación de Productores y Exportadores de Aguacate de Jalisco (Association of Avocado Producers and Exporters of Jalisco),
“Global consumption is growing faster than production”
It has been said that the United States is so essential to Mexico’s business that recovering or consolidating other markets is almost unthinkable. However, in the particular case of the state of Jalisco, there are certain nuances. Although they send between 90% and 95% of their product to their northern neighbors, they believe that diversification would allow them to be prepared to face potential impacts of U.S. trade policies on exports.
Eleazar Oseguera states that in 2024, growth in Canada and Japan has been between 10% and 15%. They also plan to enter Chile, which is a major global producer but has a very defined season and a context of extremely high domestic demand.
However, there are still some steps to be completed: “We are working to finalize the protocol with Chile, hopefully this year. Their technicians have already visited. Experts from Brazil, Malaysia, and several other countries have also come. Malaysia imports a lot from Australia, which eventually runs out of avocados, opening market opportunities. Since Mexico has avocados year-round, we can take advantage of these windows.”
In China, a protocol is also close to being signed. Currently, shipments are made through Hong Kong, and discussions are also underway with India.
“We believe that along with the increase in production, there has also been a rise in global consumption. Historically, U.S. consumption has increased by 5% annually, Europe by 15%, and Asia by 10%. This means that demand is outpacing production growth. A clear example is that both Peru and Mexico reduced their production in 2024, yet consumption increased significantly. So, we see no issue with our product reaching markets worldwide,” he concludes.
KENIA Y TANZANIA
Growth of Colombian avocado:
“We must BE ABLE to MOVE all the fruit that we will produce in the coming years”
This is what Ricardo Mejía, General Manager of Fruty Green, a Colombian company that doubled its shipments in one year, comments. The country could increase its avocado exports by 15% to 20% in 2025 and has the challenge of progressively matching its shipments to the United States and Europe.
Colombia grows in its production of avocados and its export capacity. As the main campaign closes, the accounts are encouraging, mainly because the numbers show health in the industry, with the main companies growing in the number of containers shipped. It is estimated that the increase will reach 30%, with the capacity to supply all year round, but with well-marked “peaks”: in the case of the main supply between November and January; and on the “traviesa”, between May and July.
“There is more and more production in Colombia, making there almost no space between both campaigns. They are almost coming together,” explains Ricardo Mejía, General Manager of Fruty Green.
In this interview with AvoMagazine he explains that the harvest is very well accompanied by “del rey sol” - as he calls it -, whose effect is the essential factor that has positively influenced the crops.
“In January 2024, we had a very good summer, very good sun, the flowering
was very strong, the fruit set was very strong and that is what we are collecting now,” he describes.
As detailed, the same situation will be experienced with the traviesa: “It will also be strong because in May, June, July, we also had interesting conditions in the 24th year and that is the fruit that we are going to harvest in a matter of two or three months, also with good volumes.”
Of course, he warns that this growth must go hand in hand with a proportional increase in the logistics chain, the capacity of packing houses and shipping companies, since they are relevant actors so that all the fruit that the crops are producing can be shipped.
30% INCREASE IN EXPORTS
According to Ricardo Mejía, the growth has been very powerful. So much so, that he feels that we are experiencing a pivotal stage in the evolution of the industry: “Colombia has definitely gone
from being a teenager in the avocado industry to being an adult, because the volumes are important.”
“We are capable of sustaining more than 200 containers per week for six, seven or even ten weeks. Before we reached 100, we went up to 200, but the following week we went down. But we have been there for several weeks, starting from the 45th of the year 2024, with an average of between 180 and 220 containers, even with higher peaks. Therefore, the growth has been exponential in every sense, for the companies individually and for the industry,” says Mejía.
In the specific case of Fruty Green, this campaign practically presents an increase of 100% compared to last year. On that occasion, 230 containers were made and, at the end of this campaign, there are already 536.
“We were focused on Europe at least until week 46-47, when we saw that the market fell so much that we began to move much more to the United States,” he details.
This movement - he believes - is the natural evolution that Colombian exports should have, since it is directly proportional to the reduction in travel times for the fruit, with the minimization of the risks of damage in the conditions of arrival at the destination.
- Will we continue to see a 30% growth level in the industry during 2025?
“I don’t know if it will reach levels of 25-30% again, but at least 15-20% in 2025, taking into account that a “traviesa fuerte” is coming and that we had a very good summer. As a result, the flowering on the farms is good and this flower that we are producing at this moment is going to be the main harvest that will start in September 2025. In addition, the trees that were reaching their mature stage will begin to contribute fruit to the industry. There are very large projects that are beginning their strong production stages, which are reaching year 4, 5 and 6, and that is very positive. Along with that, many of the crops older than 8, 9, 10 years that had problems, suffering, trying to recover the trees, have recovered very well and are providing more and more fruit. So, I think the 25th is still a very promising year for the industry.”
- Is this growth sustainable for the business, considering that your main clients are in Europe, where there are so many origins participating?
“In an interview a while ago in Avobook I commented that I gave it between 3 and 5 years, so that Colombia’s exports to Europe and the United States are at least equal. At the end of 2024, we may
be 80% Europe and 20% the United States. It may even be a little more for the United States. This trend of growing in the United States is going to continue, not only because it is a slightly more natural market for us, due to its proximity, but because Europe is a multi-origin market and we see that there is a fairly stable demand in recent years. It grows in some countries, like Italy, somewhat in Scandinavia, in Eastern Europe, but not enough. Thus, for Colombians it becomes more complex to maintain that force in Europe, although it will continue to be very important. Surely it will remain strong with our clients, but the trend definitely in the future is that the percentages of fruit shipments will become more equal with the United States market.”
- Have more hectares of crops been certified to reach the United States?
“Two things happen: there are new orchards that are certified, in a very strong work by CorpoHass and the ICA. But, at the same time, the farms that were already certified, that were small and had been planted for two or three years, are already producing higher production. Then, the volume of fruit that we have certified for the United States also increases.”
- Is growth being important for the entire industry?
“It is a general situation. If you look at the statistics, Cartama reached almost 1,500 containers, Westfalia is above 600. At Fruty Green, we were also close to 600. Growth has also been important for Jardín Exotics. Furthermore, Baika must be one of the companies that has grown the most in recent years.”
- What have you had to improve in the relationship with importers in the United States to pave the way for increasing your volumes in that market?
“The work has been on several fronts. The Colombia Avocado Board (CAB) helps us promote our avocado in the United States, as part of the HAB (Hass Avocado Board). That is an important spearhead for the industry, which is helping to open doors. The national union is making great efforts, participating in fairs in that country, so that they know us more and more. In parallel, each company individually is carrying out its commercial management. We must change the notion that we are only a sleeper market. Today, the United States is a market to which we can supply all year round. “Importers know it and so do supermarkets.”
Does the growth of production and export go hand in hand with an optimal chain of logistics and shipping services?
RICARDO MEJÍA General Manager of Fruty Green.
“This growth has had many challenges throughout the logistics chain. The Packings have had significant challenges in their processing capacity, especially now that the two campaigns are coming together. The issue with shipping companies is also important. There hasn’t been much availability. So we have had to look for many options. For example, when cherries are at full capacity in Chile and table grapes are at full capacity in Peru and Chile, the availability of containers that arrive in Colombia is very low. So, let’s say that the industry is going through a very good moment in terms of volume, but with many challenges to solve, also in the services that help us in phytosanitary control and security. “We must have the capacity to move all the avocado that Colombia will produce in the coming years.”
MERCADOS
MARKETS MERCADOS
The global Hass avocado market is led by the United States and Europe, with a marked preference for specific sizes. While larger sizes command higher prices in the U.S., demand in Europe remains stable across a wider range of sizes.
PRINCIPALES MERCADOS
MAIN MARKETS
MERCADOS
MERCADOS
COMPARACION CALIBRES ÚLTIMO TRIMESTRE 2024: USA VS EUROPA
In the European continent, Peru stablishes itself as the main supplier, followed by Colombia, Chile and Israel, with growing imports from African countries such as Morocco, South Africa, and Kenya.
COMPARACION PRECIOS 2024:
U S D / K G Grams U S D / K G
In the U.S., Mexico continues to dominate the supply, although other regions like California and Colombia have gained market share.
Asia, for its part, maintains steady growth in markets such as China, Japan and South Korea, with a diversification of origins.
COMPARACION PRECIOS 2024: USA (#48) VS EUROPA (#18)
PRICE COMPARISON 2024: USA (#48) VS EUROPE (#18)
$1
EUROPE
VARIACIÓN % IMPORTACIÓN 2024 VS 2023
% VARIATION IN IMPORTS 2024 VS 2023
PRECIO PROMEDIO MENSUAL POR KG CALIBRE #18
CARMEN GLORIA LÜTTGES
AND THE
FUTURE
OF THE CHILEAN AVOCADO:
a vision of the challenges and NEW STRATEGIES
In an interview with the President of the Comité de Paltas de Chile (Chile Avocado Organization), the challenges and strategies of the Chilean market in the face of competition from Peru and other markets, export projections for 2025 and the impact of new logistical and commercial dynamics are discussed.
Carmen Gloria Lüttges is one of the most influential figures in the Chilean fruit industry, with an extensive track record in the marketing and export of fresh products. Currently, she serves as Avocado Commercial Manager for South America at Westfalia Fruit and as president of the Chilean Avocado Organization, roles that have allowed her to lead key strategies for the positioning of Chilean avocados in international markets. His experience ranges from strategic planning to commercial management, giving him a comprehensive vision of the sector.
Throughout his career, Lüttges has worked on optimizing commercial and logistical processes, promoting sustainable practices and encouraging collaboration between producers and exporters.
In this interview for AvoMagazine, we will address the main challenges and opportunities of the avocado market in Chile, including the balance of the 2024 season, competition with other producing countries, projections for 2025 and strategies to strengthen the Chilean presence in key markets such as Europe, the United States and Asia.
Lüttges, this year Chile has experienced a 40% growth in its export volume compared to the previous season, exceeding the initial estimates of the Chilean Avocado Organization, which projected an increase of 30%.
“Chile has a 40% increase in exported volume compared to the same week of the previous season and with good returns, which will bring good results for producers and marketers,” he explained.
exported volumes, taking advantage of its geographical proximity to the European continent. However, it faces significant difficulties, such as adverse climatic conditions—with heat waves coming from the Sahara Desert—and challenges in water resource management.
AN INDUSTRY OF GROWTH, BUT ALSO WITH CHALLENGES
The 2024 season has been particularly interesting for the sector, marked by a significant increase in export volumes and changes in the distribution of destination markets. According to
For its part, Europe continues to be the main destination for Chilean avocados, with a 61% share of total exports. However, this figure has decreased by 13 percentage points compared to the previous season, due in part to the growth of Argentina as a destination market, which currently represents 21% of exports. In parallel, Asia remains stable with 10% of total exports, while the United States has experienced slight growth, reaching 8% market share.
One of the main challenges for Chile is the growing competition in Europe, particularly from Morocco. This country has increased its plantations and
“Although it is known that Morocco will increase its volumes entering Europe due to the increase in plantations in recent years, they face several challenges such as heat waves and water resource management. Morocco is an emerging exporting country, where they still need to improve the technical management of orchards and their packing infrastructure to provide a safe and sustainable product. In a European market, which increases year after year, the demands regarding quality and certifications, Chile already plays an important role given that it meets a high standard and consistency of the product, being the preferred origin for European Retailers,” explains Carmen Gloria.
The United States, for its part, continues to be a market of interest for Chilean avocado. Despite the strong presence of Mexico, Chile maintains its position due to its reliability and commitment to retail programs. Over the years, Chilean exporters have built a reputation for consistency and quality, key factors in a demanding market. “Although the volume is limited, our quality continues to guarantee competitive returns,” says Lüttges.
For 2025, avocado flowering in Chile has shown favorable signs in most
producing areas, which suggests a campaign with volumes similar to this year. However, the confirmation of these projections will depend on the second natural fruit fall that occurs between March and April.
“In general, fruit set looks good in most producing areas, but there are still no official estimates from the Chilean Avocado Organization for the 2025 season, since we must wait for the second natural fall of the fruit. In April the first figures will be delivered, which I believe will be very similar to the season that is ending,” details the expert.
AND WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR 2025?
The Chilean strategy for avocado exports in 2025 will be determined by two key factors: the
volumes and sizes of the Peruvian harvest and the availability of local fruit in Europe, from Spain, Israel, Portugal and Morocco.
According to recent data shared at Fruit Logistica in Berlin, Peru is expected to increase its production between 20% and 30%, which could influence the duration of its presence in the European market. Given this scenario, Chile will have to evaluate the optimal moment to start its season and adjust its strategy.
“Peru is expected to grow between 20-30% in the 2025 campaign, so Chile will have to adjust its strategy. We will surely concentrate greater volume in the last months of the year and we will make decisions based on the situation of the international markets and the domestic market, which is also growing,” indicates Lüttges.
Regarding logistics, one of the questions that has arisen in the industry is whether Chile could take advantage of the new port of Chancay to optimize shipments to Asia, replicating the Peruvian strategy. This port, recently inaugurated, represents a possible opportunity to reduce logistics costs and times. However, at the moment there is no direct trade route connecting Chilean ports with Chancay.
petitive route is implemented that reduces transit times, it would be a great opportunity for the industry,” says Lüttges. If this service materializes with competitive rates and more efficient transit times from the beginning to the end of the Chilean season, it could become a key alternative to improve the competitiveness of the sector.
In the domestic market, for its part, the off-season supply of avocado has been mainly dominated by Peru, and it is expected to continue to be the main supplier due to its geographical proximity, lower logistics costs and its consolidation in the Chilean market.
“Chile has a 40% increase in exported volume compared to the same week of the previous season and with good returns” Carmen Gloria Lüttges
Although countries such as Brazil and Mexico have expressed interest in supplying avocados to Chile in certain windows of lower supply, the entry of new origins with significant volumes seems unlikely in the short term. However, this year Brazil joins as a new supplier, subject to compliance with the high phytosanitary standards established by the Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG).
“For now, there are no direct services from Chile to the port of Chancay. If in the future a safe and com-
“As the Chilean Avocado Organization we were actively involved in the development of the protocols that made this milestone possible in order to protect the national phytosanitary heritage. First, we responded to public consultations prepared by the authority and then held periodic meetings to provide our vision and technical knowledge. The volume of Brazilian avocado that enters Chile will depend on phytosanitary compliance at origin and the good work they do in terms of the quality and condition of the product they send to the country, since the Chilean consumer is very demanding,” explains Lüttges.
CARMEN GLORIA LÜTTGES, President of the Comité de Paltas de Chile (Chile Avocado Organization)
JAPAN SOUTH KOREA MARKETS
TOTAL CONTENEDORES POR AÑO
JAPÓN
JAPÓN
COREA DEL SUR
COREA DEL SUR
“Brazilian Avocados HAVE ALREADY ESTABLISHED a Loyal Customer Base”
This is how Cecilia Whately, Vice President of the Brazilian Avocado Producers Association, describes it. She details the work being done to establish themselves as suppliers in Europe and to open new markets such as Chile, Argentina, Japan, and India.
Brazil is making its way into the global avocado market, focusing primarily on Europe but also looking towards its South American neighbors. Among them is Chile, a country with a well-developed avocado industry, but where market opportunities arise during low-production periods, especially given its high domestic consumption.
In an interview with AvoMagazine, Cecilia Whately explains how the 2024 season ended, noting that Brazil has not been immune to the same logistical challenges faced by other exporting countries shipping to Europe. At the same time, the industry is aware that major opportunities could arise by promoting domestic avocado consumption within Brazil.
Asia is also part of the 2025 expansion plan, as Brazil aims to strengthen its presence in the region and secure a more significant market share.
- How did the export industry close the year 2024 in terms of volume and sizes?
“The 2024 campaign was distributed across all open markets and has already established a fixed customer base. Since we have many young production volumes, the sizes tend to be larger. However, due to extreme heat in some regions, the volume of smaller sizes has increa sed, mainly supplying Ar gentine consumers.”
CECILIA WHATELY
vicepresidenta
de la Asociación de Productores de Aguacate de Brasil.
- What is the current status of your exports, and what are the volume and size projections for 2025?
“This year, the regions of São Paulo and Paraná experienced a more than 50% drop in harvest due to adverse weather conditions during the flowering period. However, the states of Minas Gerais did not face such issues and should have a larger harvest than last year. We believe that this year’s volume should remain similar to that of 2024, meaning around a thousand containers will be shipped. The sizes should continue to be large and medium. In the regions where production has declined, the fruits will likely grow larger.”
- How are you addressing the logistical challenges of exporting avocados to europe? Are improvements needed to sustain shipments?
“Last year, we faced significant congestion at the Port of Santos. Another challenge was securing Gen Sets, as there is strong competition with major meat exporters, who also require this equipment to maintain the cold chain in containers. Unfortunately, achieving improvements depends on government and corporate actions that are beyond our control as producers and expor-
- And how are you addressing these challenges to ensure timely arrivals and quality?
“What we are doing is improving our shipment scheduling management to make reservations in advance.”
- In a previous interview with Avobook, there
was mention of plans to enter two nearby markets: Chile and argentina. What is the current status of these efforts?
“We are already well established in the Argentine market, and this year we will begin exporting to the Chilean market. Producers and exporters registered under the protocol developed by government agencies are already negotiating trade with Chilean importers.”
- Are there plans to expand beyond Europe, Chile, and Argentina?
“Yes. We have already opened markets in India and Japan, and we are working on gaining access to the North American market.”
- Has there been an increase in Hass avocado consumption in the Brazilian domestic market, considering that it is not traditionally part of the local diet?
“The Brazilian Association of Avocado Producers and Exporters is investing in marketing to encourage fruit consumption in Brazil, both Hass and tropical varieties, which are excellent for all types of recipes. In fact, there has been an increase in Hass avocado consumption due to greater availability in major and mid-sized city markets, as a result of increased production.”
CHINA
CHINA
CHINA
2.089
Imported containers 2024
CHILE
2.943
Imported containers 2024
THE RISE OF AFRICAN AVOCADOS: How to Overcome Challenges to Conquer the GLOBAL MARKET?
South Africa and Kenya are the two main producers and exporters. Both are addressing their logistical and quality challenges to improve their participation in Europe and project future business in Asia.
Africa is positioning itself as a significant player in avocado production and exports. Countries such as Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, and Ethiopia have experienced significant growth in their cultivation, driven by the increasing global demand for the fruit. A large part of African shipments is destined for Europe.
However, the road to consolidation faces challenges that the industry is working on to improve arrival conditions. One of them is ensuring the quality of avocados from harvest to their arrival in international markets. Another is the difficulties in transporting the fruit on routes that experience complexities beyond exporters’ control but that impact arrival conditions and, consequently, business results for the entire chain.
This AvoMagazine report showcases the strategies that African producers are adopting to improve avocado quality and create solutions for transportation.
GROWTH OF THE AVOCADO MARKET IN AFRICA
In 2022, the total avocado production in Africa reached approximately 1.059 million tons. This growth has been driven primarily by countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Africa, which have expanded their agricultural capabilities and improved the quality of their products.
According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Kenya
ranks as the largest avocado producer on the continent, with 458,439 tons, representing 43.3% of Africa’s total production. Meanwhile, South Africa also plays a significant role in the market, contributing 103,602 tons.
Domestic avocado consumption in Africa varies significantly between countries. Although there are no precise figures for the entire continent, it is estimated that a significant portion of production is destined for local consumption. In the two leading producing countries, avocados have become increasingly popular in daily diets, driving internal demand growth alongside rising exports.
In 2022, Africa exported approximately 300,000 tons of avocados to the international market. The European Union remains the primary market for this origin, with the Kenyan Ministry of Agriculture highlighting the strong trade relationships developed with various European countries. Additionally, China has shown increasing interest in African avocados, representing a new opportunity for exporters. There has also been a rise in sales to Middle Eastern countries, such as the United Arab Emirates.
According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032, the adoption of modern agricultural practices among small-scale farmers is helping improve both quality and production volumes.
Therefore, what key challenges must the African avocado industry address to establish a stronger and more sus-
tainable presence in the global market?
SOUTH AFRICA: MINIMIZING TIME BETWEEN HARVEST AND COOLING
In South Africa, one of the main challenges is port efficiency and maintaining fruit quality during transport.
Derek Donkin, CEO of the South African Avocado Growers’ Association (Subtrop), explains that there have been positive changes in this regard.
Director Ejecutivo de la Asociación Sudafricana de Productores de Palta(SAAGA).
DEREK DONKIN,
“Longer shipping times due to delays in South African ports have been a challenge. However, in recent months, port efficiency has improved, which is a good sign for the upcoming avocado season in South Africa,” he told AvoMagazine.
To ensure fruit quality in distant markets, several post-harvest strategies have been implemented. “We are encouraging growers to apply best practices throughout the entire culti-
vation season. The key is to minimize the time between harvest, packing, and cooling, as well as to use appropriate temperature regimes and controlled atmosphere,” Donkin adds.
Access to new markets, such as China, India, and Japan, has generated high expectations within the industry. However, there is an awareness that establishing these markets takes time.
“We are excited to have access to these new markets, but we know that
developing them takes time. Initially, volumes will be low, but they will gradually increase. We see India and China as markets with great potential in the medium and long term,” Donkin states.
According to Donkin, South Africa has approximately 20,800 hectares of avocado orchards, with an annual growth of 800 hectares. These new plantations allow for an extended harvest season, ensuring a stable supply
Vivero de Aguacate en Kenya.
KENYA’S FOCUS: MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF TRANSIT TIMES
In Kenya, producers face challenges that do not originate within their own industry but are crucial for improving their market participation. Paul Kyalo, General Manager of Konza Tropicals Limited, highlights that the situation in the Red Sea has had a major impact on the industry.
toward Middle Eastern and Asian markets, which are not impacted by transport disruptions.
Kenyan exporters understand the importance of addressing these logistical challenges, especially given the opportunities created by the expansion of avocado production compared to other traditional export crops.
According to Kyalo, the exponential growth of avocado production in East Africa is driven by several factors:
for both local and international markets.
The country has strict regulations in place to ensure sustainable agricultural production. Donkin highlights that there is rigorous legislation regarding land and water use.
“Additionally, we encourage growers to obtain independently audited environmental certifications, such as SIZA,” he says.
However, he warns that double certifications can be a burden for growers. “Ensuring that South African avocados are produced sustainably is crucial. However, there should not be a duplication of requirements from different retailers. Duplicating certifications increases costs for growers, affecting economic sustainability.”
Regarding the potential export protocol to the United States, Donkin cautions: “Currently, we do not see a strong sense of urgency from the USDA to finalize the protocol.”
Meanwhile, the growth of Peruvian production and its impact on the European market is another factor that South Africa must consider.
“Careful planning is required to prevent unnecessary supply peaks. If the market receives a balanced and predictable supply, traders can better plan for the sale of volumes,” concludes the South African avocado industry representative.
“Prolonged transit times, a common issue since December 2023 due to the Red Sea embargo, have forced ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing delivery times. Disruptions in the cold chain affect the quality of avocados, as they require a constant temperature of approximately 5°C for optimal preservation,” he explains.
To mitigate these issues, Kyalo states that they are harvesting fruit with a minimum dry matter content of 23% and a maximum of 26%, ensuring proper pre-cooling to 5°C, and using ethylene absorbers to slow down ripening during the extended transit period.
Another key strategy is ensuring certification at the orchard level: “We are obtaining compliance certifications before the start of the season, ensuring that fruit is harvested at the appropriate maturity levels and prioritizing markets that are less affected by logistical delays.”
The executive acknowledges that the prolonged transit of avocados has been a concern among importers throughout 2024. This has led them to shift focus
“The increasing revenue from avocados compared to traditional export crops like tea, nuts, and coffee, the favorable climate and rainfall patterns, and the availability of land—especially in Kenya’s Rift Valley—all contribute to this expansion.”
Yet, every challenge presents an opportunity. Producers are not only working with exporters for fruit commercialization but also investing in value-added processing, particularly avocado oil production.
“This allows us to utilize fruit that does not meet export standards,” explains Kyalo.
In this context, exporters play a crucial role in supporting small and medium-sized producers, who represent 90% of East Africa’s avocado production. The primary focus has been on providing assistance from seedling selection and technical support to agronomic guidance, harvesting, and post-harvest practices.
Europe remains the leading destination for Kenyan and East African avocados, accounting for over 70% of exports, followed by the Middle East (10%) and the Far East & Central Asia (10%).
PAUL KYALO, Director General de Konza Tropicals Limited.
WEEKLY IMPORTS OF HASS AVOCADO 2024 CHILE
PRECIO PROMEDIO MENSUAL POR KG CALIBRES #18-24 (FRUTA LOCAL)
WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE PER KG FOR SIZES #18-24 (LOCAL FRUIT)
U S D / K G
MERCADOS
CHILE
CHILE
IMPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
IMPORTACIONES SEMANALES DE AGUACATE HASS 2024
MARKET SHARE BY ORIGIN
PARTICIPACIÓN POR ORIGEN
PARTICIPACIÓN POR ORIGEN
ARGENTINA
1.233
Imported containers 2024
ARGENTINA
MARKETS
IMPORTACIONES
WEEKLY IMPORTS OF HASS AVOCADO 2024
ARGENTINA
MARKET SHARE BY ORIGIN
PARTICIPACIÓN
POR ORIGEN
PARTICIPACIÓN POR ORIGEN
CHILE BRASIL PERÚ
In general terms, the two main origins by volume, Mexico and Peru, recorded a decrease in their exports in 2024. In contrast, several smaller-scale producing countries increased their export volumes compared to 2023.
Despite the reduction in Mexico’s exports compared to the previous year, its position as the leading avocado supplier in the U.S. market remained unaffected. However, it faces a significant challenge in the development of its harvest, which could redefine the market share of other origins such as Colombia and Peru.
In the case of Peru, uncertainty arises as to whether it will be able to maintain its market share, considering the significant increase in its exports. Although no clear trend has been observed yet, this could impact the planning of its campaign.
Colombia, for its part, could increase its market share and volumes in different markets, driven by the flor traviesa harvest, which could have a significant impact on key markets such as the U.S. and Europe.
In contrast, the season in Chile is practically over, and Mediterranean countries will gradually reduce their exports. The smaller Chilean harvest creates an opportunity for new producing countries to seek to export and position their fruit in the Chilean market, although it remains dominated by Peru.
Finally, it will be key to closely monitor the start of the season in Kenya, South Africa, and Brazil, as they could increase their export volumes in the main markets, especially in Europe.
